Cost effective integration of hydrogen in energy systems with CO2 constraints

The integration of hydrogen in national energy systems is illustrated in four extreme scenarios, reflecting four technological mainstreams (energy conservation, renewables, nuclear and CO₂ removal) to reduce C emissions. Hydrogen is cost-effective in all scenarios with higher CO₂ reduction targets. Hydrogen would be produced from fossil fuels, or from water and electricity or heat, depending upon the scenario. Hydrogen would be used in the residential and commercial sectors and for transport vehicles, industry, and electricity generation in fuel cells. At severe (50–70%) CO₂ reduction targets, hydrogen would cost-effectively supply more than half of the total useful energy demands in three out of four scenarios. The marginal emission reduction costs in the CO₂ removal scenario at severe CO₂ reduction targets are DFL 200/tCO₂ (ca $ 100/t). In the nuclear, renewable and energy conservation scenarios these costs are much higher. Whilst the fossil fuel scenario would be less expensive than the other scenarios, the possibility of CO₂ storage in depleted gas reservoirs is a conditio sine qua non.     

Peak CO2 emission in the region dominated by coal use and heavy chemical industries: a case study of Dezhou city in China

This paper studies the pathways of peaking CO₂ emissions of Dezhou city in China, by employing a bottom-up sector analysis model and considering future economic growth, the adjustment of the industrial structure, and the trend of energy intensity. Two scenarios (a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and a CO₂ mitigation scenario (CMS)) are set up. The results show that in the BAU scenario, the final energy consumption will peak at 25.93 million tons of coal equivalent (Mtce) (16% growth versus 2014) in 2030. In the CMS scenario, the final energy will peak in 2020 at 23.47 Mtce (9% lower versus peak in the BAU scenario). The total primary energy consumption will increase by 12% (BAU scenario) and decrease by 3% (CMS scenario) in 2030, respectively, compared to that in 2014. In the BAU scenario, CO₂ emission will peak in 2025 at 70 million tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO₂), and subsequently decrease gradually in 2030. In the CMS scenario, the peak has occurred in 2014, and 60 MtCO₂ will be emitted in 2030. Active policies including restructuring the economy, improving energy efficiency, capping coal consumption, and using more low-carbon /carbon free fuel are recommended in Dezhou city peaked CO₂ emission as early as possible.     

Integrated biomass energy systems and emissions of carbon dioxide

Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the US Department of Energy (DOE) have been funding a number of case studies under the initiative entitled “Economic Development through Biomass Systems Integration”, with the objective of investigate the feasibility of integrated biomass energy systems, utilizing a dedicated feedstock supply system (DFSS) for energy production. This paper deals with the full fuel cycle for four of these case studies, which have been examined with regard to the emissions of carbon dioxide, CO₂. Although the conversion of biomass to electricity in itself does not emit more CO₂ than is captured by the biomass through photosynthesis, there will be some CO₂ emissions from the DFSS. External energy is required for the production and transportation of the biomass feedstock, and this energy is mainly based on fossil fuels. By using this input energy, CO₂ and other greenhouse gases are emitted. However, by utilizing biomass with fossil fuels as external input fuels, we would get about 10–15 times more electric energy per unit fossil fuel, compared with a 100% coal power system. By introducing a DFSS on former farmland the amount of energy spent for production of crops can be reduced, the amount of fertilizers can be decreased, the soil can be improved and a significant amount of energy will be produced compared with an ordinary farm crop. Compared with traditional coal-based electricity production, the CO₂ emissions are in most cases reduced significantly by as much as 95%. The important conclusion is the great potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions through the offset of coal by biomass.     

Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China''s electricity sector

With the approach of the year 2012, a new round of international negotiations has energized the entire climate change community. With this, analyses on sector-based emissions reduction and mitigation options will provide the necessary information to form the debate. In order to assess the CO₂ emissions reduction potential of China's electricity sector, this research employs three scenarios based on the “long-range energy alternative planning system” (LEAP) model to simulate the different development paths in this sector. The baseline scenario, the current policy scenario, and the new policy scenario seek to gradually increase the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement. Results imply that energy consumption and CO₂ emission in China's electricity sector will rise rapidly in all scenarios until 2030—triple or quadruple the 2000 level; however, through structural adjustment in China's electricity sector, and through implementing technical mitigation measures, various degrees of abatement can be achieved. These reductions range from 85 to 350 million tons CO₂ per year—figures that correspond to different degrees of cost and investment. Demand side management and circulating fluidized bed combustion (CFBC) (ranked in order) are employed prior to use to realize emissions reduction, followed by supercritical plants and the renovation of conventional thermal power plants. In the long term, nuclear and hydropower will play the dominant role in contributing to emissions reduction. It is also suggested that a “self-restraint” reduction commitment should be employed to help contribute to the reduction of emission intensity, an avenue that is more practical for China in light of its current development phase. Setting the year 2000 as the base year, the intensity reduction target could possibly range from 4.2% to 19.4%, dependent on the implementation effectiveness of various mitigation options.     

MODEST-An energy-system optimisation model applicable to local utilities and countries

MODEST, an energy-system optimisation model is described. It has been applied to a typical local Swedish electricity and district-heating utility and to the national power system. Present and potential installations and energy flows should be considered and their best combination can be obtained through optimisation. MODEST uses linear programming to minimise the capital and operation costs of energy supply and demand-side management. Seasonal, weekly, and diurnal variations of, for example, demand, costs, and capacities are considered. MODEST may be used to decide which investments to make, the dimensioning of new installations, and the operation of all system components. The municipal utility under study should now expand its heat production using woodchips. Electricity export or nuclear phase-out will probably raise the Swedish electricity prices. In this case, cost minimisation is achieved by introducing combined heat and power (CHP) production in the municipality. Fossil fuels should be used in the cogeneration plant at current taxation levels but biofuels are favourable if higher environmental fees are imposed for CO₂ emissions. Biomass capacity expansion could decrease local CO₂ emissions by 80%. Efficiency improvements for electricity use have robust profitability at high electricity prices. The Swedish electricity demand may be satisfied without nuclear power and fossil fuels through massive biomass use, wind-power supply, and energy conservation.     

Greenhouse gas balances of transportation biofuels,electricity and heat generation in Finland—Dealing with the uncertainties

One way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector is to replace fossil fuels by biofuels. However, production of biofuels also generates greenhouse gas emissions. Energy and greenhouse gas balances of transportation biofuels suitable for large-scale production in Finland have been assessed in this paper. In addition, the use of raw materials in electricity and/or heat production has been considered. The overall auxiliary energy input per energy content of fuel in biofuel production was 3–5-fold compared to that of fossil fuels. The results indicated that greenhouse gas emissions from the production and use of barley-based ethanol or biodiesel from turnip rape are very probably higher compared to fossil fuels. Second generation biofuels produced using forestry residues or reed canary grass as raw materials seem to be more favourable in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, the use of raw materials in electricity and/or heat production is even more favourable. Significant uncertainties are involved in the results mainly due to the uncertainty of N₂O emissions from fertilisation and emissions from the production of the electricity consumed or replaced.     

Mitigation of carbon dioxide from Indonesia's energy system

In Indonesia, energy consumption (excluding non-commercial energy) increased from 328 MBOE in 1990 to 478 MBOE in 1995. As a consequence, energy sector CO₂ emissions increased from 150 million tons to over 200 million tons during the same period. The present rapid economic growth Indonesia is experiencing (7–8%) will continue in the future. Based on a BAU scenario, primary energy supply for the year 2020 will be 18,551 PJ, an increase of 5.9% annually from 1990 CO₂ from the energy system will increase from 150 Teragrams in 1990 to 1264 Teragram in 2020. The mitigation scenario would reduce total CO₂ emissions from the BAU scenario by 10% for the year 2000 and 20% by 2020. Some demand side management and energy conservation programs are already included in the BAU scenario. In the mitigation scenario, these programs are expanded, leading to lower final energy demand in the industrial and residential sectors.

Indonesia's total primary energy supply in 2020 is approximately 5% lower for the mitigation scenario than for the BAU scenario. In the BAU scenario, coal and oil have the same contribution (25%). In the mitigation scenario, natural gas and nonfossil fuels such as hydropower, geothermal, and nuclear have higher contributions.     

Scenario analysis of bioenergy resources and CO2 emissions with a global land use and energy model

The purpose of the present study is to evaluate bioenergy supply potentials, land use changes, and CO₂ emissions in the world, using a global land use and energy model (GLUE) including land use competitions and overall biomass flows. Through a set of simulations, the following results were obtained: (1) Supply potentials of energy crops produced from surplus arable lands will be strongly affected by food supply and demand parameters in the future, such as animal food demand per capita. (2) The policy option, i.e. the world, large-scale introduction of modern fuelwood by felling and planting in existing forest, will cause drastic reduction of the mature forest area but will cause little reduction of the accumulated CO₂ emissions coming from both energy and forest sectors. One reason for this is that the additional CO₂ emissions owing to the land use conversion from the mature forest to the growing forest will partly cancel out the CO₂ reduction owing to the fuel substitution from fossil fuels to fuelwood. (3) When energy recovery of paper scrap is given priority to material recycling, bioenergy will substitute partly for fossil fuels; however the decrease in recycled paper scrap will cause an increase in roundwood felling demand. Hence, the results will be similar to those of (2).     

CO2 production rates for geothermal energy and fossil fuels

We calculate the CO₂ production rates for fossil fuels and three forms of geothermal energy. We show that most geothermal resources produce significantly less CO₂ than the fossil fuels for equivalent electricity production. We conclude geothermal energy may contribute to a reduction of global warming.     

Renewable-Energy paradox in paradise: A case stuty of Hawaii

Hawaii is committed to replacing imported oil with indigenous, renewable energy resources to enhance the economic and environmental security of the state's citizens. A case study of Hawaii's fuel-energy balance by the end of the 21st century which features two scenarios, a ‘Business-as-Usual’ energy system, based on imported fossil fuels, and a ‘Renewable-Energy’ scenario, based on an alternative energy system consisting entirely of indigenous, renewable energy resources, is presented.

In the year 2100, a projected total energy consumption of approximately 335 million gigajoules would be provided from a hypothetical renewable-energy system of approximately 13 gigawatts-electric of installed capacity. This system would feature methanol-from-biomass to meet liquid fuel requirements for surface transportation, industrial, commercial, and residential sectors; hydrogen via electrolysis in liquid form for air transportation and as a gaseous fuel for industrial purposes; and electricity generated from geothermal, ocean thermal, wind, and photovoltaic sources for all power applications.

A comprehensive economic analysis, including capital costs, operating and maintenance costs, air pollution costs for the total fuel cycle of each energy system, and a local multiplier effect factor of 3·75 per dollar, indicates that between the years of 1987 and 2100 the ‘Business-as-Usual’ scenario will have expended approximately $600 billion (1986 US dollars), and the ‘Renewable-Energy’ scenario will have cost approximately $400 billion. By switching from imported fossil fuels to indigenous, renewable energy resources during this time period, Hawaii's citizens could save approximately $200 billion to help preserve paradise.     

Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California

This paper develops and analyzes four energy scenarios for California that are both exploratory and quantitative. The business-as-usual scenario represents a pathway guided by outcomes and expectations emerging from California's energy crisis. Three alternative scenarios represent contexts where clean energy plays a greater role in California's energy system: Split Public is driven by local and individual activities; Golden State gives importance to integrated state planning; Patriotic Energy represents a national drive to increase energy independence. Future energy consumption, composition of electricity generation, energy diversity, and greenhouse gas emissions are analyzed for each scenario through 2035. Energy savings, renewable energy, and transportation activities are identified as promising opportunities for achieving alternative energy pathways in California. A combined approach that brings together individual and community activities with state and national policies leads to the largest energy savings, increases in energy diversity, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Critical challenges in California's energy pathway over the next decades identified by the scenario analysis include dominance of the transportation sector, dependence on fossil fuels, emissions of greenhouse gases, accounting for electricity imports, and diversity of the electricity sector. The paper concludes with a set of policy lessons revealed from the California energy scenarios.     

Co-benefit analysis of incentives for energy generation and storage systems; a multi-stakeholder perspective

In this work, we are analyzing the advantages of energy incentives for all the stakeholders in an energy system. The stakeholders include the government, the energy hub operator, and the energy consumer. Two streams of energy incentives were compared in this work: incentives for renewable energy generation technologies and incentives for energy storage technologies. The first type aims increasing the share of renewable energies in the electricity system while the second type aims development of systems which use clean electricity to replace fossil fuels in other sectors of an energy system such as the transportation, residential and industrial sector. In this work, we are analyzing the advantages of energy incentives for all the stakeholders in an energy system. The stakeholders include the government, the energy hub operator, and the energy consumer. Two streams of energy incentives were compared in this work: incentives for renewable energy generation technologies and incentives for energy storage technologies. The first type aims to increase the share of renewable energies in the electricity system while the second type aims the development of systems which use clean electricity to replace fossil fuels in other sectors of an energy system such as the transportation, residential and industrial sector. The results of the analysis showed that replacing fossil fuel-based electricity generation with wind and solar power is a less expensive way for the energy consumer to reduce GHG emissions (60 and 92 CAD/ tonne CO_2e for wind and solar, respectively) compared to investing on energy storage technologies (225 and 317 CAD/ tonne CO_2e for Power-to-Gas and battery powered forklifts, respectively). However, considering the current Ontario's electricity mix, incentives for the Power-to-Gas and battery powered technologies are less expensive ways to reduce emissions compared to replacing the grid with wind and solar power technologies (1479 and 2418 CAD/ tonne CO_2e for wind and solar, respectively). Our analysis also shows that battery storage and hydrogen storage are complementary technologies for reducing GHG emissions in Ontario.     

Potential impacts assessment of plug-in electric vehicles on the Portuguese energy market

Electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which obtain their fuel from the grid by charging a battery, are set to be introduced into the mass market and expected to contribute to oil consumption reduction. In this research, scenarios for 2020 EVs penetration and charging profiles are studied integrated with different hypotheses for electricity production mix. The impacts in load profiles, spot electricity prices and emissions are obtained for the Portuguese case study. Simulations for year 2020, in a scenario of low hydro production and high prices, resulted in energy costs for EVs recharge of 20 cents/kWh, with 2 million EVs charging mainly at evening peak hours. On the other hand, in an off-peak recharge, a high hydro production and low wholesale prices' scenario, recharge costs could be reduced to 5.6 cents/kWh. In these extreme cases, EV's energy prices were between 0.9€ to 3.2€ per 100 km. Reductions in primary energy consumption, fossil fuels use and CO₂ emissions of up to 3%, 14% and 10%, respectively, were verified (for a 2 million EVs' penetration and a dry year's off-peak recharge scenario) from the transportation and electricity sectors together when compared with a BAU scenario without EVs.     

China’s pre-2020 CO2 emission reduction potential and its influence

China achieved the reduction of CO₂ intensity of GDP by 45% compared with 2005 at the end of 2017, realizing the commitment at 2009 Copenhagen Conference on emissions reduction 3 years ahead of time. In future implementation of the “13th Five-Year Plan (FYP),” with the decline of economic growth rate, decrease of energy consumption elasticity and optimization of energy structure, the CO₂ intensity of GDP will still have the potential for decreasing before 2020. By applying KAYA Formula decomposition, this paper makes the historical statistics of the GDP energy intensity decrease and CO₂ intensity of energy consumption since 2005, and simulates the decrease of CO₂ intensity of GDP in 2020 and its influences on achieving National Determined Contribution (NDC) target in 2030 with scenario analysis. The results show that China’s CO₂ intensity of GDP in 2020 is expected to fall by 52.9%–54.4% than the 2005 level, and will be 22.9%–25.4% lower than 2015. Therefore, it is likely to overfulfill the decrease of CO₂ intensity of GDP by 18% proposed in the 13th FYP period. Furthermore, the emission reduction potentiality before 2020 will be conducive to the earlier realization of NDC objectives in 2030. China’s CO₂ intensity of GDP in 2030 will fall by over 70% than that in 2005, and CO₂ emissions peak will appear before 2030 as early as possible. To accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy, China needs to make better use of the carbon market, and guide the whole society with carbon price to reduce emissions effectively. At the same time, China should also study the synergy of policy package so as to achieve the target of emission reduction.     

Atmospheric stabilization of CO2 emissions: Near-term reductions and absolute versus intensity-based targets

This study analyzes CO₂ emissions reduction targets for various countries and geopolitical regions by the year 2030 to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ at 450 ppm (550 ppm including non-CO₂ greenhouse gases) level. It also determines CO₂ intensity cuts that would be required in those countries and regions if the emission reductions were to be achieved through intensity-based targets without curtailing their expected economic growth. Considering that the stabilization of CO₂ concentrations at 450 ppm requires the global trend of CO₂ emissions to be reversed before 2030, this study develops two scenarios: reversing the global CO₂ trend in (i) 2020 and (ii) 2025. The study shows that global CO₂ emissions would be limited at 42 percent above 1990 level in 2030 if the increasing trend of global CO₂ emissions were to be reversed by 2020. If reversing the trend is delayed by 5 years, global CO₂ emissions in 2030 would be 52 percent higher than the 1990 level. The study also finds that to achieve these targets while maintaining expected economic growth, the global average CO₂ intensity would require a 68 percent drop from the 1990 level or a 60 percent drop from the 2004 level by 2030.     

Spatial optimization of Jatropha based electricity value chains including the effect of emissions from land use change

Jatropha was identified as a potential feedstock to satisfy off-grid and on-grid energy solutions. However, the potential has been questioned due to agronomic frustrations, the lack of an organized value chain and heavy criticism on biofuels due to emissions triggered by land use change (LUC). To contribute to the realistic integration of Jatropha in rural development, this article proposes a modeling approach to probe the feasibility of Jatropha-based electrification in rural Africa and the layout of such a value chain.A multi-component modeling setup is presented, featuring a life cycle inventory, spatial modeling and the optimization model, OPTIMASS. In this modeling setup, OPTIMASS is parameterized with data regarding the global warming potential and the potential location of each operation in the value chain including cultivation sites and related LUC emissions. This enables OPTIMASS to spatially design the Jatropha-based on-grid and off-grid electrification value chain (i.e. cultivation, transport and storage, biofuel production and electricity generation) in Southern Mali with minimal GWP to reach 10% substitution of fossil fuels for Jatropha in electricity production for a current and two future electricity demand scenarios.Analysis of the optimization results demonstrates that emissions from transporting the oil are lower than LUC emissions per harvestable seed of other sites. Finally, it can be said that harnessing the entirety of the Jatropha value chain is crucial to make it GWP competitive relative to fossil fuels in which the location of plantations is crucial to attain low LUC-related emissions and viable yields.     

Assessment of mitigation options for the energy system in Bulgaria

The Bulgarian greenhouse gas (GHG) emission profile reveals the energy sector as the most significant emission source and also as an area where great potential for GHG emissions reduction exists. Mitigation options in energy supply were selected considering the potential of fossil fuel substitution and new energy technology implementation in the context of the existing structure of energy system and projects for mid- and long-term development. Basically three modules of ENPEP were used: BALANCE — to calculate the energy flows and energy cost from primary fuel resources and fuel import to energy end-use, IMPACT — to calculate GHG emissions, and ELECTRIC — to project the electric system long-term development. Different mitigation measures combined in four scenarios were developed. The integrated mitigation scenario incorporated a mix of mitigation measures in the energy demand and supply. Implementation of CO₂ mitigation measures both in energy demand and energy supply would reduce the 2020 emission level by 34.3 Tg (29.1%), and by 544.2 Tg (21.7%) for the entire study period 2000 – 2020, compared to the baseline scenario.     

Effects of increased biomass pellet combustion on ambient air quality in residential areas—a parametric dispersion modeling study

Sweden's goals of contemporaneously reducing CO₂ emissions and phasing out nuclear power will require a maximum utilization of biomass fuels. This would imply a significant shift from electricity and fuel oil to biomass generated heat, but must also be accomplished without a deterioration of the local air quality. The most suitable energy carrier seems to be pelletized biomass fuels with their associated low emissions and considerable residential conversion potential. Using an underlying statistical design, a parametric dispersion modeling study was performed to estimate and illustrate the combined effects of source-specific, meteorological and modeling variables on the ambient air quality in a typical residential area for different conversion scenarios. The work nicely illustrated the benefits of combining statistical designs with model calculations. It further showed that the concentration of combustion related ambient THC was strongly related to conditions affecting the source strength, but only weakly to the dispersion conditions and model variables. Time of year (summer or winter); specific emission performance; extent of conversion from electricity; conversion from wood log combustion; and specific efficiency of the pellet appliances showed significant effects in descending order. The effects of local settings and model variables were relatively small, making the results more generally applicable. To accomplish the desired conversion to renewable energy in an ecologically and sustainable way, the emissions would have to be reduced to a maximum advisable limit of 25±7 mgTHC/MJ_fuel (given as CH₄). Further, the results showed the potential positive influence by conversion from wood log to low emission pellet combustion.     

水合物法分离CO2工艺研究进展

随着温室效应加剧,CO₂减排行动已迫在眉睫。水合物法分离CO₂工艺作为一种发展前景广阔的新型CO₂分离技术,为CO₂减排提供了一种解决思路。水合物法分离CO₂工艺相比于化学吸收、物理吸附、深冷分离和膜分离等技术具有分离效率高、过程简单无副产物、条件温和的优势,为减缓CO₂排放增加对环境造成的影响提供了一个中短期解决方案,以此为前提将允许人类继续使用化石燃料直至可再生能源技术广泛应用。本文综合分析了国内外的相关文献,介绍了水合物法分离CO₂工艺的基本原理,并比较了水合物法分离CO₂不同工艺的优劣之处,为进一步优化水合物法分离CO₂工艺提供指导。     

Comparing least cost scenarios for 100% renewable electricity with low emission fossil fuel scenarios in the Australian National Electricity Market

Policy makers face difficult choices in planning to decarbonise their electricity industries in the face of significant technology and economic uncertainties. To this end we compare the projected costs in 2030 of one medium-carbon and two low-carbon fossil fuel scenarios for the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) against the costs of a previously published scenario for 100% renewable electricity in 2030. The three new fossil fuel scenarios, based on the least cost mix of baseload and peak load power stations in 2010, are: (i) a medium-carbon scenario utilising only gas-fired combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) and open cycle gas turbines (OCGTs); (ii) coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS) plus peak load OCGT; and (iii) gas-fired CCGT with CCS plus peak load OCGT. We perform sensitivity analyses of the results to future carbon prices, gas prices, and CO₂ transportation and storage costs which appear likely to be high in most of Australia. We find that only under a few, and seemingly unlikely, combinations of costs can any of the fossil fuel scenarios compete economically with 100% renewable electricity in a carbon constrained world. Our findings suggest that policies pursuing very high penetrations of renewable electricity based on commercially available technology offer a cost effective and low risk way to dramatically cut emissions in the electricity sector.