隐爆角砾岩——古地震的一种成因标志SCIEI北大核心CSCD

全球到处发育的隐爆角砾岩表明隐爆作用的普遍性,并标志着古地震的一种形成机制。隐爆角砾岩具有特殊的角砾形状和构造。地震地质资料表明大地震产生的地表破裂带没有肉眼可观测到的断层位移。材料聚集应变能估算值表明岩石聚集的应变能不足以产生大地震。携带高能量的地核-地幔流体不仅为自己逸散提供了能量,而且为产生地震提供了充足的能量。深部流体以运移-聚集-爆炸-运移-聚集-爆炸的循环方式向地表逃逸,在地球内部不同深度产生了不同震级的地震。因此,超高压流体隐爆应该是地震形成的主要机制。地震隐爆成因机制不仅能够更好地解释各种天然地震(中深源地震、震群、慢地震和非双力偶性地震等)以及全球地震、火山和地热带的空间吻合,而且能够解释隐爆角砾岩及其伴生矿的形成。     

The influence of the Nurek Reservoir on local earthquake activity

The Nurek Reservoir is located in an area of high seismicity. An average of 5–6 earthquakes of (Russian energy class)K = 10 and 1–2 earthquakes ofK = 11 per year occurred in the vicinity of the reservoir. The largest local earthquake recorded fell in the energy classK = 14 (1956).

At the end of 1972, after the water level had risen to 100 m, earthquake activity increased sharply. Three events ofK = 12 were recorded during one month and the total number of earthquakes (K 7) exceeded three times the former mean level of seismicity.

Spatial and temporal properties in the epicentral distribution showed a migration from the southwest toward the reservoir.

Earthquake mechanisms of 215 events ofK 9 since 1960 were analysed. Fault plane solutions for some of the earthquakes which occurred after the impoundment were found to be different from the ordinary ones.     

Influence of strong motion characteristics on permanent displacement of slopes

Landslides triggered by moderate to major earthquakes are a recognized seismic hazard. Arias Intensity (I _a) is a key intensity measure of the ground motion, but significant duration is widely used to define strong motion duration. We calculate Newmark’s displacements using earthquake records bracketing a broad range of Arias Intensity and significant duration employing Newmark’s rigid block method and a number of yield accelerations. Total landslide displacement increases with the increase in the energy content of the ground motion (I _a) above a threshold. Such threshold may be expressed as a function of yield acceleration of the slope regardless of the ground motion characteristics. Newmark displacement decreases with increasing duration for earthquakes with similar energy content. The wide scatter in the results converges when using formal dimensional analysis. Self-similar symmetry may facilitate the assessment of the performance of slopes during earthquakes. The mathematical framework for probabilistic determination of landslides displacement may be a useful aid to estimate the likelihood of landslide hazards provided that the geotechnical properties of the slopes are known.     

地震成因综述

本文从地质、地球物理、地球化学和能量等方面分析了地震的成因。源于地核地幔的流体携带大量热能,为岩浆起源、地震形成和地热田提供了充足的能量,然而岩石聚集的应变能不足以产生中等以上的地震。大地震(M≥6.0)绝大部分分布在海沟、火山岛弧和大陆裂谷带等拉张性构造带,如环太平洋海沟、东印度洋海沟、大洋中脊、非洲裂谷、地中海-黑海-里海-波斯湾、欧亚大陆中部的伊塞克湖-阿拉湖-乌布苏湖-库苏古尔湖-贝加尔湖裂谷。流体在地球深部物质运动、地壳运动、地震和火山活动中扮演着重要作用。全球到处发育的隐爆角砾岩表明隐爆作用的普遍性。深部流体向上运移、向地表逃逸的过程中发生爆炸,在地球内部产生了不同震级和震源深度的地震。因此,隐爆应该是产生地震的主要机制。地震成因的隐爆模型不仅能够更好地解释不连续、各向异性的非弹性介质中发生的各类地震,譬如中深源震、震群、慢地震和非双力偶性地震等,而且能够更好地诠释全球地震、火山和地热带在空间上的吻合以及隐爆角砾岩型矿藏的形成。     

The Problems of Seismic Risk Prediction for the Territory of the Lower Amur Region: Paleoseismogeological and Seismological Analysis

The studied region is located at the junction between the Pacific and Central Asian seismoactive belts. Macroseismic data on earthquakes of this region are available for the last 150 years, while instrumental seismological observations began in the mid-20th century; however, the recurrence interval of strong earthquakes can be up to several centuries and even thousands of years. In this respect, many areas of the Amur region had been believed to be nearly aseismic until earthquakes occurred there. Paleoseismogeological studies of recent years have allowed the character of Holocene displacements to be estimated for some of the main regional structures. As a result, the main tendencies of the Late Quaternary geological evolution of the region remain uncertain and the potential seismogenerating structures are not completely known. Therefore the problem of revealing new zones and periods of seismic activity is topical for the entire Amur region. The importance of this problem is related to the weak degree of study of the region by contemporary methods of active tectonics, the intensive development of engineering infrastructure, which is vulnerable to seismic impacts, and the necessity of long-term seismic forecasting. The present work provides the results of paleoseismogeological studies of the active faults in the Amur region. On the basis of new data on the magnitude potential of seismogenerating structures based on the magnitudes of historical earthquakes and instrumentally recorded ones, we have estimated the seismic effects from strong deep-focus earthquakes and the attenuation coefficients and calculated radii of the first three isoseismals for crustal earthquakes. By using the methods of statistical modeling, we distinguish the periods when seismic effects increased from earthquakes with 2 ≤ M ≤ 6. It is shown that seismic hazard assessment should take into account the dynamics of the seismic regime, caused by the change of the earthquake source depth. It is found that the epicenters of earthquakes with 5 ≤ M ≤ 6 form non-crossing seismic zones in different phases of changes in the Earth’s annual rotation.     

Site response of the Ganges basin inferred from re-evaluated macroseismic observations from the 1897 Shillong, 1905 Kangra,and 1934 Nepal earthquakes

We analyze previously published geodetic data and intensity values for the M _s = 8.1 Shillong (1897), M _s = 7.8 Kangra (1905), and M _s = 8.2 Nepal/Bihar (1934) earthquakes to investigate the rupture zones of these earthquakes as well as the amplification of ground motions throughout the Punjab, Ganges and Brahmaputra valleys. For each earthquake we subtract the observed MSK intensities from a synthetic intensity derived from an inferred planar rupture model of the earthquake, combined with an attenuation function derived from instrumentally recorded earthquakes. The resulting residuals are contoured to identify regions of anomalous intensity caused primarily by local site effects. Observations indicative of liquefaction are treated separately from other indications of shaking severity lest they inflate inferred residual shaking estimates. Despite this precaution we find that intensites are 1–3 units higher near the major rivers, as well as at the edges of the Ganges basin. We find evidence for a post-critical Moho reflection from the 1897 and 1905 earthquakes that raises intensities 1–2 units at distances of the order of 150 km from the rupture zone, and we find that the 1905 earthquake triggered a substantial subsequent earthquake at Dehra Dun, at a distance of approximately 150 km. Four or more M = 8 earthquakes are apparently overdue in the region based on seismic moment summation in the past 500 years. Results from the current study permit anticipated intensities in these future earthquakes to be refined to incorporate site effects derived from dense macroseismic data.     

Faults and Source Parameters of Earthquakes in the Baikal Rift Zone: Dip Angles of Fault Planes

Analysis of gentle, intermediate, and steep dip angles of fault planes in earthquake sources of the Baikal region is carried out with the slips in seismic sources being taken into account. The areas where normal faulting slips at steep, intermediate, and gentle angles took place are distinguished, and this can be interpreted as transformation of a steep dip to gentle one. It is found that the increase in energy class is accompanied by the number of earthquakes with steep dip angles, whereas the proportion of earthquakes with intermediate angles decreases, and the fraction of earthquakes with gentle angles remains quasi-stable and small.     

Seismic triggering of atmospheric variables prior to the major earthquakes in the Middle East within a 12-year time-period of 2002–2013

Several studies have reported the increased values of surface-latent heat flux (SLHF) and rainfall events prior to the earthquakes as the seismic precursors. In order to investigate the variation of two mentioned atmospheric variables, we analyzed 39 major earthquakes in the Middle East based on the time series of NASA remote sensing data. On this basis, we observed that accumulated rainfall and SLHF of about 29 earthquakes were higher than 10 mm and 50 W/m², respectively (~75 %), over 3–23 days prior to the main shock of major earthquakes. We believed that the records of atmospheric variables are the consequence of a seismic-triggered chain including of air ionization, surface-latent heat exhalation, water vapor condensation and subordinate rainfall as the atmospheric responses to lithospheric motions. This seismic triggering in the Middle East has averagely caused to accumulated rainfall of ~35 mm and maximum SLHF of ~115 W/m² over the 3–23 days prior to 39 major earthquakes. To investigate of spatial correlation between earthquakes and atmospheric variations, we clustered 39 major earthquakes in eight seismological regions. Then, we estimated the moderate and strong correlation (R ²) between preceding times of earthquakes with magnitude of major earthquakes and their hypocenter depth equal to 0.48 and 0.68, respectively.     

Formalized analysis of crustal seismicity in the Sikhote Alin orogen and adjacent areas

The fractal dimension of the epicentral field of earthquakes (D = 1.6) is determined for the Sikote Alin orogen and adjacent areas. According to this parameter, the region occupies the position between the Kamchatka Peninsula, Kuril Islands (1.61 and 1.69), the East China area, and the Lake Baikal region (1.55 and 1.40). Differentiation of the studied area based on the fractal dimension of the number of earthquakes and on the released energy calculated per unit square shows that the most active crustal areas are associated with the Kharpi–Kur–Priamur’e zone of the northeastern orientation, which is the northern segment of the Tan-Lu transregional fault system. Analysis of the time series of seismic events (MLH ≥ 2.4) in the Sikhote Alin and adjacent areas in the period from 1960 to 2013 shows that the “harmonic” with a 10.5-year period is most clearly displayed. This period (11–13 years) was previously distinguished by B.V. Levin and coauthors from the study of the largest number of earthquakes with M ≥ 4.4 for the period of 1971–2003.     

Seismicity assessment in and around Syria based on instrumental data: application of Gumbel distributions and Gutenberg-Richter relationship

An instrumental earthquake catalog covering the time span between 1903 and 2007 and for the area bounded by 32°N–38°N and 35°E–43°E has been compiled in this research. The catalog has a magnitude of completeness (M _c ) with 3.5. Least squares and statistical probability Gumbel’s techniques with different approaches have been applied on the instrumental events in order to assess the average recurrence time periods for different earthquake magnitudes. The constants a and b of Gutenberg-Richter and the average recurrence times have been computed firstly for the study area and secondly for the central and northern parts of Dead Sea fault system. The different statistical computations using Knopoff and Kagan formalism are generally in agreement and suggest an average recurrence time of 203 years for an earthquake of magnitude 7 for the region. The occurrence of large well-documented historical earthquakes in Lebanon and western Syria, the existence of active fault segments, the absence of large earthquakes during the study period, the increasing number of the low-magnitude earthquakes, and the continued accumulation of the strain since 1900 indicate therefore the probability of an earthquake occurrence of a large magnitude. This should be permanently taken into consideration in seismic hazard assessment on the local and regional scales.     

Application of the region–time–length algorithm to study of earthquake precursors in the Thailand–Laos–Myanmar borders

In order to examine the precursory seismic quiescence of upcoming hazardous earthquakes, the seismicity data available in the vicinity of the Thailand–Laos–Myanmar borders was analyzed using the Region–Time–Length (RTL) algorithm based statistical technique. The utilized earthquake data were obtained from the International Seismological Centre. Thereafter, the homogeneity and completeness of the catalogue were improved. After performing iterative tests with different values of the \(r_{0}\) and \(t_{0}\) parameters, those of \(r_{0}\) = 120 km and \(t_{0}\) = 2 yr yielded reasonable estimates of the anomalous RTL scores, in both temporal variation and spatial distribution, of a few years prior to five out of eight strong-to-major recognized earthquakes. Statistical evaluation of both the correlation coefficient and stochastic process for the RTL were checked and revealed that the RTL score obtained here excluded artificial or random phenomena. Therefore, the prospective earthquake sources mentioned here should be recognized and effective mitigation plans should be provided.     

The instrumental seismicity of the Jordan Dead Sea transform

The instrumental seismicity that occurred in the Jordan Dead Sea transform region during the period 1900–2014 is compiled from all available sources. Some 492 phosphate mining explosions (M ≤ 3.9) are recognized and filtered from the data. Excluding these, it is found that 4448 earthquakes have occurred with magnitudes M ≥ 3.0. Only 572, 18 and 2 of these had magnitudes M ≥ 4, 5, and 6 in respective order. Average recurrence periods for the 5 and 6 magnitudes are 6.3 and 57 years. Much of these have occurred in sequences and swarms. The epicentral distribution of the compiled instrumental seismicity data shows very good correlation with the general tectonics of the study region. All tectonic elements are active in the present with a noticeable hazard. The regional strike-slip faults of the transform proper remain the major sources of this hazard. They account for not less than 99% of the seismic energy released from all instrumental data. The calculated a-parameter of the whole transform is 6.6. It varies for all its strike-slip faults mostly in the range 6.0–6.6. The b-value of the whole transform and some of its major segments is 1.0. Others show b-variations in the range of 1.1–1.3. Such a- and b-values imply recurrence periods of 38 years and 395 years for the 6 and 7 magnitude earthquakes. Such values, their variations and the seismic moment calculations clearly indicate an appreciable level of seismic hazard associated with all segments. This hazard appears to be highest for Al Ghab segment, followed by Beqa’a and Wadi Araba segments, respectively. The other three segments appear to be of lower hazard. The seismicity of this region is very shallow. More than 99% of the seismic energy has been released from the brittle granitic upper crust whose thickness is about 21 km and its Poisson’s ratio is 0.25. More than 93.6% of the energy was released from its upper 10 km. Very little energy is released from the underlying ductile basaltic crust whose Poisson’s ratio is 0.29. The calculated seismic slip rate along the Whole Jordan Dead Sea transform is 0.54 cm/year if the fault depth is assumed 10 km. It increases to 0.77 and 1.07 cm/year if the fault depth is reduced to 7 and 5 km, respectively. These slip rates are comparable with the long-term geologically deduced rate of 1 cm/year.     

Synthesis of seismicity studies for western Alaska

An examination of the Alaskan earthquake catalogs revealed that from 1928 through 1965, twelve earthquakes of magnitudes (M) in the range 5.6 to 7.3 were located in and around Seward Peninsula region of western Alaska. Moreover, a number of earthquakes of M < 5.0 were found to distribute over the same area. Further investigation of the seismicity employing a local seismographic network in the above area showed a higher level of onshore and offshore seismic activity than had been previously recognized. A number of clusters of earthquakes have been identified. Some of them are located in the epicentral areas of past strong earthquakes (M > 5.5) and some are located in areas traversed by mapped faults. The nature of the seismicity as identified with the local network data is primarily crustal over the entire study area. Investigation of focal mechanisms of isolated strong earthquakes or clusters of small earthquakes show normal faulting as the dominant mode of strain energy release in the western part of Alaska. Moreover, in areas lying, approximately, south and north of Kotzebue Sound, the principal components of horizontal stresses tend to orient in the NW-SE and WNW-ESE directions, respectively.     

Seismic patterns in Northern China and the characteristics of the epicentral distribution of the medium strong earthquakes before the large events

In this paper, the seismic pattern in Northern China from 30 ° to 42 ° N latitude and 104 ° to 125 ° E longitude, and the characteristics of the epicentral distribution before large events are presented. The results suggest that:

• 1.(1) the earthquakes in the region are mainly located in the orthogonal curvilinear network formed by the seismic belts;
• 2.(2) the larger earthquakes (M ⩾6) occurred mainly in the nodal regions of this grid:
• 3.(3) the strike of the fracture planes of the earthquakes coincided with the directions of the seismic belts;
• 4.(4) the pattern of medium strong earthquakes (M ⩾ 4.7) prior to thirteen large earthquakes (M⩾ 7) are analysed to be of three types:
  • 4.1.(a) mainly arranged along the two intersecting belts,
  • 4.2.(b) randomly distributed,
  • 4.3.(3) forming seismic gaps.

A theoretical basis and rules for drawing the orthogonal grid is presented, and an idea for the prediction of the sites of future earthquakes in Northern China is suggested.     

Precursory seismicity rate changes prior to the large and major earthquakes along the Sagaing fault zone,Central Myanmar

In this study, the seismicity rate changes that can represent an earthquake precursor were investigated along the Sagaing Fault Zone (SFZ), Central Myanmar, using the Z value technique. After statistical improvement of the existing seismicity data (the instrumental earthquake records) by removal of the foreshocks and aftershocks and man-made seismicity changes and standardization of the reported magnitude scales, 3574 earthquake events with a M _w ≥ 4.2 reported during 1977–2015 were found to directly represent the seismotectonic activities of the SFZ. To find the characteristic parameters specifically suitable for the SFZ, seven known events of M _w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes were recognized and used for retrospective tests. As a result, utilizing the conditions of 25 fixed earthquake events considered (N) and a 2-year time window (T _w), a significantly high Z value was found to precede most of the M _w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes. Therefore, to evaluate the prospective areas of upcoming earthquakes, these conditions (N = 25 and T _w = 2) were applied with the most up-to-date seismicity data of 2010–2015. The results illustrate that the vicinity of Myitkyina and Naypyidaw (Z = 4.2–5.1) cities might be subject to strong or major earthquakes in the future.     

Principal component analysis method in the detection of total electron content anomalies in the 24 hrs prior to large earthquakes

The goal of this research is to examine one-dimensional total electron content (TEC) data using principal component analysis (PCA) to search for total electron content (TEC) anomalies associated with large earthquakes in 24 h prior to nucleation. The characteristics of principal eigenvalues generated for TEC prior to 24 earthquakes of magnitude scale M?≥?5.0 and 6 lesser earthquakes of magnitude scale M?<?5 that occurred in Taiwan from 01 January 2000 to 31 December 2001 are examined. In an earlier paper, I was able to confirm the statistical findings of Liu et al. (J Geophys Res 111, 2006) that sparse earthquake-associated TEC anomalies existed in 5 days prior to the 12 large earthquakes they examined (Lin, Terr Atm Ocean Sci, 2010). In this paper, I wish to examine the subtlety of principal component analysis in detecting earthquake-associated TEC anomalies by examining if such precursors can be detected in 24 h prior to large earthquakes. Of the earthquakes examined, TEC anomalies given by clear extreme principal eigenvalues were evident within 24 h of nucleation for 21 of the 24 earthquakes of M?≥?5.0. After making allowance for the general status of background TEC, it is clear that these extreme principal eigenvalues are representative of earthquake-associated anomalies. For the smaller earthquakes (M?<?5), it was not possible to differentiate earthquake-associated anomalies from background effects on TEC status. These new findings confirm the validity of PCA in searching for earthquake-associated TEC anomalies and show that it is subtle enough to detect TEC anomalies within 24 h leading to a large earthquake. If this approach continues to prove successful, it could theoretically be used in real-time prediction of large earthquakes through early detection of earthquake-associated TEC anomalies.     

On a model simulating lack of hydraulic connection between a man-made reservoir and the volume of poroelastic rock hosting the focus of a post-impoundment earthquake

The idea that a direct hydraulic connection between a man-made reservoir and the foci of post-impoundment earthquakes may not exist at all sites is eminently credible on geological grounds. Our aim is to provide a simple earth model and related theory for use during investigations of earthquakes near new man-made reservoirs. We consider a uniform circular reservoir which rests on the top surface of a no-hydraulic-connection earth model (NHCEM). The model comprises a top elastic (E) layer, an intermediate poroelastic (P) layer, and a bottom elastic half space. The focus of a potential earthquake in the P layer is located directly under the reservoir. The E layer disrupts the hydraulic connection between the reservoir and the focus. Depth of water in the reservoir varies as H ^′ + hcos(ω t). Expressions for reservoir-induced stresses and pore pressure in different layers of the NHCEM are obtained by solving the boundary-value problem invoking full coupling between mean normal stress and pore pressure in the P layer. As an application of the derived mathematical results, we have examined and found that earthquakes on 60^° normal faults may occur in the P-layer of a selected NHCEM at epochs of low reservoir level if the reservoir lies mostly in the footwall of the fault. The exercise was motivated by observations of such earthquakes under the man-made Lake Mead after it was impounded.     

Investigation of Migrating Seismicity in the Lithosphere of the Baikal Rift Zone

Doklady Earth Sciences - Based on “Catalog of earthquakes in the Baikal Region” (52700 earthquakes of representative energy classes KP &gt; 8, 1964–2013) at the angular sector...     

Unusually low seismic activity in the focal region of the great Kanto earthquake of 1923

The epicenters of earthquakes which occurred in the vicinity of Tokyo during the period 1926–1967 have been plotted by an IBM 360/40 computer at the Earthquake Prediction Observation Center. As a result, a seismically quiescent area is found to the south of Tokyo. The area coincides with the shallower part of the focal plane of the great Kanto earthquake of 1923 as obtained from the analyses of seismological and geodetic data. In historical times, many large earthquakes having a magnitude of 7.0 or greater took place in this area. If it is assumed that the strain energy has been constantly accumulated in this area, an energy potentially equivalent to that of a large earthquake of which the magnitude exceeds 7.7 seems to be stored in the crust there.     

Evaluation of parameters affecting earthquake damage by decision tree techniques

Earthquake damages are assessed based on a holistic approach using structural as well as non-structural factors to model earthquake damage distributions with Decision Tree Techniques, using the Answer Tree program and the damage data from recent major earthquakes in Turkey. The damage dataset consists of approximately 9,400 buildings that were surveyed to evaluate the factors affecting building damage after Erzincan [1992], Dinar [1995], and Kocaeli [1999] earthquakes. The earthquake damage is defined as the dependent variable, while earthquake magnitude (M), intensity (I) in the city, peak ground acceleration (PGA) in each city, epicenter distance (ED), building types (BT), number of storeys (NS), presence of soft storey (SS), building position (BP) on the site, and site conditions (SC) are independent variables in the proposed model. The damage level (DL) was classified with respect to red, yellow, and green codes. The main purpose was (1) to identify the factors controlling building damage during earthquakes; (b) to determine the most significant factor; (c) to evaluate the effects of different factors for different earthquakes; (d) to develop damage distribution models for different subgroups based on the Decision Tree Techniques.