Assessment of Trends in Stream Temperatures in the North of the Iberian Peninsula Using a Nonlinear Regression Model for the Period 1950–2013

A nonlinear regression model was used to estimate mean daily stream water temperature in 11 rivers of the North of the Iberian Peninsula employing as the only predictor variable the air temperature. The weighted mean value of air temperature of a variable number of preceding days was used as a predictor variable. To obtain the weight of air temperature of each preceding day, initially, we calculate the weight of air temperature of current day. For this, we have included in the model the air temperature of current day and the water temperature of preceding day—representative of long‐term effects of air temperature on current water temperature. Subsequently, the weight of remaining days was calculated by a negative exponential function. The weight of air temperature of current day ranges between 0.28 and 0.10, and it was correlated to length of river (R² = 0.69) and to time of concentration (R² = 0.66). This fact implies that the number of preceding days required to obtain a good estimation differs across the rivers. The results show that the mean root mean square error (RMSE) between observed and estimated water temperatures was 1.23 °C (±0.30 °C), employing a number of days so that the sum of their weights was 0.65. For the validation period, RMSE was 1.20 °C (±0.18 °C). For the period 1986–2013, estimated temperature of water was 0.6 °C higher than that estimated for the period 1950–1986. This increase value is slightly lower than that observed in the air temperature (0.8 °C). On the other hand, during the period 1986–2013, water temperature showed a rate of increase of 0.16 °C/decade, similar to the increase of air temperature (0.15 °C/decade). Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

黄河上游河道一维河道水温模型和经验公式法对比

为对比不同方法在黄河上游水温模拟中的适用性,分别用一维河道水温模型和经验公式法(四次多项式、三次多项式和幂函数)对兰州以上的黄河上游干支流共8个主要水文站日平均水温和月平均水温进行模拟,并采用平均绝对误差、均方根误差和纳什系数对模拟的精度进行检验。结果表明:四次多项式在黄河干流(除黄河沿站)日平均水温模拟中精度最高,幂函数在支流湟水的日平均水温模拟中精度最高;四次多项式适合黄河干流水文站的月平均水温模拟,幂函数更适合于支流湟水的月平均水温模拟;经验公式法在黄河干流日平均水温模拟中精度高于一维河道水温模型,更适合黄河上游干流段的日平均水温模拟。     

联合Landsat影像和ICESat测高数据估计青海湖湖泊水量变化

湖泊既是陆地水资源的重要储蓄场所,也是区域和全球水文循环系统的重要组成部分,其水量波动对气候变化较为敏感。为了掌握湖泊面积、水位和水量的变化规律,借助1988-2018年Landsat TM/ETM/OLI影像和归一化差异水体指数NDWI（normalized difference water index）提取青海湖湖泊水域面积;利用ICESat-GLAS（ice, cloud, and land elevation satellite-geoscience laser altimeter system）测高数据提取青海湖湖泊水位变化,并结合观测资料检验陆地GLAS光斑脚点高程和湖泊水位的估测精度。根据湖泊面积与水位、水量与水位的关系,构建1988-2018年青海湖湖泊面积-水位-水量波动时变序列,并探讨湖泊水位、面积、水量的年内和年际变化特征。结果表明：GLAS光斑脚点高程与高程实测值的标准误差为0.14 m,与SRTM3高程标准误差为0.26 m;1988-2018年青海湖年均水位和水量总体上呈增加趋势,其中年均水位最低值出现于2004年,平均水位为(3 193.0±0.16) m,湖泊面积为(4 190±13) km²;与1988年年均水位相比,2018年青海湖年均水位上升了(1.93±0.22) m,湖泊年均面积扩张了(197.75±6.3) km²,湖泊水量增加了(8.93±0.12) km³。     

尼尔基水库上游格点降水数据适用性评估

以尼尔基水库上游流域为研究对象,评估了国家气象信息中心空间分辨率为0. 5°×0. 5°格点的逐日降水产品数据在该流域的适用性。基于格点降水产品提供的逐日降水量资料和该流域17个雨量站的相应资料,应用相关系数R、相对误差RE和均方根误差RMSE 3个指标分别对应用格点降雨产品数据的流域面雨量值及旬径流预报值进行精度分析。结果表明:基于格点数据的面雨量值与实测面雨量间相关系数R为0. 70,相对误差RE为16. 64%,均方根误差RMSE为4. 09 mm,精度满足检验标准,可以用于描述该流域的面雨量值;基于格点面雨量值预报旬径流量时,预报径流值与实测径流值间高度相关;拟合期、检验期径流预报值略微偏大,而外推期存在低估的现象,误差相对较大,但与应用实测面雨量得到的预报径流值误差相差仅3%,该格点降水数据可以替代实测站点的雨量数据用于研究流域。     

Global Warming Effects on Faecal Coliform Bacterium Watershed Impairments in Portugal

Impairment of surface water quality by faecal coliform bacteria is an issue of great importance across the globe. A water quality model, Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN, was used to predict the impacts of farming and climate change on faecal coliform loads and concentrations in streams of the Lis River watershed, in the Leiria region, Portugal. The calibrated faecal coliform model simulated well the patterns and range of observed faecal coliform concentrations. The accuracy of the model was evaluated by the per cent bias coefficient and the coefficient of determination. The results indicate a general deterioration of the water quality regarding faecal contamination in Lis River. Maximum daily loads were calculated for each of the impaired streams; an average of 77% reduction in the current faecal coliform load from the watershed is necessary to achieve the established water quality goals by the Council Directive 75/440/EEC ( 1975 ). Climate change scenarios (increments on temperature and precipitation) were assumed to predict the behaviour of faecal coliform bacteria in the watershed. The simulated results showed that an increase of 1°C in air daily temperature results in an increase of water temperature of 1.1°C and a 1.5% decrease on faecal coliform bacteria in stream concentration. The combined effect of air temperature (+1°C) and precipitation (+7%) increment leads to an increase of ~2% in bacteria inflow to the basin. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A computationally efficient model for determining sound speed in shallow tropical freshwater systems,with field validation

The optimum performance of any underwater system depends on the propagation characteristics of the acoustic signals in the local water medium. Shallow tropical freshwater systems suffer from sub‐optimal performance of sonar systems deployed for any acoustic sensing because of random fluctuations of the water medium. The propagation characteristics depend largely on the sound speed variations defined by the site‐specific physical parameters such as water temperature, salinity and depth. The present study focuses on analysing the sound speed profile of a typical shallow freshwater system (Khadakwasla Lake; 18.43°N, 73.76°E), using regression models with the goal of deriving a computationally efficient model. To this end, a linear and polynomial regression model was developed, and their performance compared with the results of the model of Chen and Millero ( 1977 ), based on root mean square error (RMSE). In situ measurements of electrical conductivity, temperature and density (CTD) were carried out using a Valeport 602 CTD meter. Approximately 125 CTD samples were obtained during a 2‐day experimental study conducted at Khadakwasla Lake from 11 October 2017 to 12 October 2017. The data collection was undertaken throughout the day at multiple locations in the lake over a spatial distance of ~16 km. The Valeport 602 CTD meter uses the Chen and Millero ( 1977 ) formula, considered the most conventional sound speed equation. The computational complexity of the proposed models was measured in terms of the number of addition and multiplication operations required. The validation of both models was carried out by varying the model input parameters within defined limits. The model inputs have been derived from an in situ experimental data collection process in a typical shallow tropical freshwater system. The linear regression model exhibited an RMSE of 4.15 m/s, while the polynomial regression model exhibited a good agreement with an RMSE of 0.5 m/s.     

盐湖流域空-天-地立体监测系统结合VIC模型径流模拟初探

盐湖流域属于无资料地区且基础资料稀缺,使用传统方法开展水文模拟存在困难。为了研究盐湖流域生态环境、水文气象等变化,综合利用卫星遥感、无人船等技术,建立盐湖流域空-天-地立体监测系统,构建盐湖水位-面积-容积关系曲线,并通过月尺度遥感数据解译了盐湖月尺度湖泊面积,推算了盐湖蓄变量和盐湖入湖月尺度径流量。通过收集并整理中国区域地面气象要素驱动数据集CMFD和MODIS LAI叶面积指数等数据,构建了基于多源数据的VIC模型,开展盐湖流域湖泊径流模拟研究。结果表明,盐湖流域径流模拟纳什系数NSE和相对误差分别为0.87和11.81%,表现出实际径流的丰枯变化情况。盐湖流域空-天-地立体监测系统结合VIC模型能够模拟盐湖流域的月尺度径流变化过程,对无资料区域河湖水文模拟具有一定参考意义。     

Parameters determining water temperature of a proglacial stream: The Phelan Creek and the Gulkana Glacier,Alaska

The heat budget of a proglacial stream, Phelan Creek, from the Gulkana Glacier, Alaska, is estimated by using the hourly time series of stream water temperature, discharge and meteorology obtained in the summer of 2006. As an analytical result, the net shortwave radiation and bed friction occupied 32.1 and 38.2% of the total thermal input to the stream, respectively. The time series of the water temperature were simulated by a deterministic model with the coupling of the heat budget and the thermal advective diffusion equation. The simulated result is agreeable to the observed one with the Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency (NASH) of 0.747 and the root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of 0.236°C over the observation period. However, under condition that the rainfall of more than 1 mm h^?1 occurs continually for more than a day, the simulation was less reasonable with NASH = 0.225 and RMSE = 0.226°C. This is probably because the relatively warm subsurface flow input to the stream channel from the non‐glacial area. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于MSWEP数据的太湖流域降水特性分析

基于高密度的地表雨量站网资料生成基准降水量,采用分类指标、体积分类指标和定量指标,在0.1°×0.1°的栅格尺度上解析了1979-2016年汛期MSWEP(multi-source weighted-ensemble precipitation)日降水数据的误差特征,并剖析了MSWEP对于太湖流域多种特征降水要素的辨识能力。结果表明:MSWEP对日降水量存在一定程度低估,且在山丘区和太湖湖区的降水精度相对偏低,但与地表降水之间总体上具有较强一致性;MSWEP对太湖流域不同时段的极值降水量和台风降水量、梅雨量和汛期降水量也具有相当表征能力;MSWEP既反映了太湖流域西部特别是浙西山丘区地形对降水的强化作用,还反映了太湖湖区大型水域对降水的抑制作用;MSWEP也探测到受城市化影响太湖流域年最大1 d降水量在平原区东部存在高值地带。     

River Temperature Modelling by Strahler Order at the Regional Scale in the Loire River Basin,France

Daily water temperature was simulated at a regional scale during the summer period using a simplified model based on the equilibrium temperature concept. The factors considered were heat exchanges at the water/atmosphere interface and groundwater inputs. The selected study area was the Loire River basin (110 000 km²), which displays contrasted meteorological, hydrological and geomorphological features. To capture the intra‐basin variability of relevant physical factors driving the hydrological and thermal response of the system, the modelling approach combined a semi‐distributed hydrological model, simulating the daily discharge at the outlet of 68 subwatersheds (drainage area between 100 and 3700 km²), and a thermal model, simulating the average daily water temperature for each Strahler order in each subwatershed. Simulations at 67 measurement stations revealed a median root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.9°C in summer between 2000 and 2006. Water temperature at stations located more than 100 km from their headwater was adequately simulated (median RMSE < 1.5°C; ?0.5°C < median biases < 0.5°C). However, performance for rivers closer to their source varied because of the averaging of geomorphological and hydrological features across all the tributaries with the same Strahler order in a subwatershed, which tended to mask the specific features of the tributaries. In particular, this increased the difficulty of simulating the thermal response of groundwater‐fed rivers during the hot spells of 2003. This modelling by coupling subwatershed and Strahler order for temperature simulations is less time‐consuming and has proven to be extremely consistent for large rivers, where the addition of streambed inputs is adequate to describe the effect of groundwater inputs on their thermal regime. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于新安江模型的曲江流域水文模拟研究

水文模型在水文理论研究和实践中具有重要意义。将曲江流域西山水文站以上区域作为研究对象,分析了新安江模型在该区域的适用情况。结果表明:新安江模型在曲江流域模拟效果良好,Nash效率系数多在0.7以上,水量平衡误差也基本控制在±10%以内;资料序列的长度对模拟效果影响显著,长序列资料的峨山站和西山站模拟结果明显优于短序列的大矣资站和马家庄站;新安江模型能较好适用于我国南方山区,对研究变化环境下水文过程的响应具有良好的适用性。     

Understanding the Thermal Regime of Rivers Influenced by Small and Medium Size Dams in Eastern Canada

Although small and medium‐size dams are prevalent in North America, few studies have described their year‐round impacts on the thermal regime of rivers. The objective of this study was to quantify the impacts of two types of dams (run‐of‐river, storage with shallow reservoirs) on the thermal regime of rivers in eastern Canada. Thermal impacts of dams were assessed (i) for the open water period by evaluating their influence on the annual cycle in daily mean water temperature and residual variability and (ii) for the ice‐covered winter period by evaluating their influence on water temperature duration curves. Overall, results showed that the run‐of‐river dam (with limited storage capacity) did not have a significant effect on the thermal regime of the regulated river. At the two rivers regulated by storage dams with shallow reservoirs (mean depth < 6 m), the annual cycle in daily mean water temperature was significantly modified which led to warmer water temperatures in summer and autumn. From August to October, the monthly mean water temperature at rivers regulated by storage dams was 1.4 to 3.9°C warmer than at their respective reference sites. During the open water period, the two storage dams also reduced water temperature variability at a daily timescale while increased variability was observed in regulated rivers during the winter. Storage dams also had a warming effect during the winter and the winter median water temperature ranged between 1.0 and 2.1°C downstream of the two storage dams whereas water temperature remained stable and close to 0°C in unregulated rivers. The biological implications of the altered thermal regimes at rivers regulated by storage dams are discussed, in particular for salmonids. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SIZE‐FRACTIONATED PHYTOPLANKTON GROWTH AND MICROZOOPLANKTON GRAZING RATES IN THE UPPER ST. LAWRENCE RIVER

Chlorophyll‐a‐specific growth and grazing rates of phytoplankton in three size fractions (0.2 to 2 µm, 2 to 20 µm, and 20 to 153 µm) were determined using dilution assays (n = 38) that were conducted from May to December 2009 in the St. Lawrence River (discharge approx. 7135 m³ s^?1) from its headwaters at Lake Ontario to 180 km downstream. There was no discernible difference in phytoplankton growth or grazing rates as a function of river reach sampled. At water temperatures below 20°C specific rates of growth and grazing were closely matched (0.43 day^?1), suggesting tight coupling of phytoplankton grazing in the water column. However, specific phytoplankton growth rates exceeded specific grazing rates by 0.29 day^?1 when river water temperature exceeded 20°C. Nevertheless, the greater specific growth rate did not manifest in greater phytoplankton biomass with transit downstream suggesting the importance of grazer organisms on benthic surfaces that graze phytoplankton in this reach of a large river. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wind Stress Effects on Detroit River Discharges

Dynamic flow models are currently used to compute Detroit River discharges for hourly, daily, and monthly time scales. These models include the complete one-dimensional equations of continuity and motion, but neglect the effects of wind stress and ice. The effects of wind stress upon calculated daily and monthly Detroit River discharges are analyzed. The wind effects of several storms with wind setups and surges on Lake Erie were evaluated on an hourly time scale. Inclusion of wind stress terms into the Detroit River models was found to have no significant effect on the monthly flow calculations and on the majority of the daily flow calculations. However, the average monthly effect of ?47 m³ s^?1 is equivalent to 111 mm depth of water per month on Lake St. Clair, which may be significant for some Lake St. Clair water balance studies. The effect on Lake Erie is on the order of 5 mm of depth per month, which is not significant for water balance studies. The wind stress was found to be important for daily and hourly flow computations when wind velocities were in excess of about 6 m s^?1.     

An Ensemble Modeling Approach to Forecast Daily Reservoir Inflow Using Bidirectional Long- and Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM), Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), and Energy Entropy Method

Daily inflow forecasts provide important decision support for the operations and management of reservoirs. Accurate and reliable forecasting plays an important role in the optimal management of water resources. Numerous studies have shown that decomposition integration models have good prediction capacity. Considering the nonlinearity and unsteady state of daily incoming flow data, a hybrid model of adaptive variational mode decomposition (VMD) and bidirectional long- and short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) based on energy entropy was developed for daily inflow forecast. The model was analyzed using the mean absolute error (MAE), the root means square error (RMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE), and correlation coefficient (r). A historical daily inflow series of the Baozhusi Hydropower Station, China, is investigated by the proposed VMD-BiLSTM with hybrid models. For comparison, BP, GRNN, ELMAN, SVR, LSTM, Bi-LSTM, EMD-LSTM, and VMD-LSTM, were adopted and analyzed for evaluation and analyzed. We found that the proposed model, with MAE?=?38.965, RMSE?=?64.783, and NSE?=?95.7%, was superior to the other models. Therefore, the hybrid model is robust and efficient for forecasting highly nonstationary and nonlinear streamflow. It can be used as the preferred data-driven tool to predict the daily inflow flow, which can ensure the safe operation of hydropower stations in reservoirs. As an interdisciplinary field spanning both machine learning and hydrology, daily inflow forecasting can become an important breakthrough in the application of deep learning to hydrology.

     

Two-Dimensional Numerical Simulation of the Hydro-Sedimentary Phenomena in Lake Taabo, Côte d’Ivoire

In Côte d’Ivoire, most of the reservoirs built to improve water supply, electricity, agriculture and cattle no longer work because of silt deposits and euthrophication. This study aims at modeling the hydro-sedimentary functioning of Lake Taabo in order to understand the sedimentation phenomena taking place. In this survey, 204 water samples and 31 bottom sediment samples were taken, during different hydrological seasons, to estimate suspended sediment concentrations and characterize the bottom sediments of Lake Taabo. The study showed that suspended solid variations are related to hydrological seasons. During dry seasons, the lake is lightly loaded; the average concentration is 7.89 mg/L. At the other end of the scale, during rainy seasons, suspended sediment concentrations increase and the average concentration is around 16.30 mg/L. The bottom of the reservoir mostly consists of mud. Sands are found near the islands and the dam. Sand size varies from medium grain to coarse. The average grain size is 451.48 μm. The hydro-sedimentary environment of Lake Taabo was simulated by a transport model, coupled with a hydrodynamic model. The various simulation scenarios indicated that Lake Taabo is subject to 20 to 60 mm of annual deposits. The greater thicknesses were observed near the spillway and the power intake.     

扬州境内湖泊浮游植物群落结构与环境因子的关系

2013年5月—2014年5月对扬州境内3个湖泊(高邮湖、邵伯湖和宝应湖)的浮游植物群落组成与水环境因子进行监测,运用相关系数法和典范对应分析(CCA)法分析了浮游植物群落结构与环境因子之间的关系。结果表明:3个湖泊的群落组成均主要以硅藻、绿藻为主要优势种群,群落结构的季节变化趋势较为相似;水温、N、P是影响3个湖泊浮游植物数量的主要环境因子;CCA分析结果表明,水温和TN是影响高邮湖浮游植物群落分布的主要环境因子,NH⁺₄-N、TP和pH是影响邵伯湖浮游植物群落分布的主要环境因子,COD_Mn、NH⁺₄-N和TP是影响宝应湖浮游植物群落分布的主要环境因子。     

浅水湖泊水质系统滤波模型

本文建立了浅水湖泊水质系统滤波模型和相应算法。根据滇池流场比较稳定等特点。对湖泊进行单元分区，考虑模型误差扰动和观测误差扰动的存在，建立系统的状态方程和观测方程，用吉尔（ＧＩＬＬ）算法求解微分方程，进行系统多点连续模拟和实时预报，用此法对滇池１９８８年的ＢＯＤ、ＣＯＤ时空变化进行连续预报，取得满意效果。     

Spatial Distribution and Habitat Use of Spawning American Shad in the St. Johns River,Florida

American shad Alosa sapidissima populations along the Atlantic Coast of North America are near historic lows despite management actions designed to rebuild stocks. Florida's St. Johns River supports the southernmost population of this anadromous species, and as water use in the St. Johns basin increases, there is concern that their spawning may be affected. We assessed American Shad movement and habitat use in the St. Johns River during three spawning migrations (2009–2011) using acoustic telemetry. Spatial distribution patterns of telemetered shad during each year were largely similar; most shad were located within reaches from Lake Monroe (rkm 276) to just downstream of Lake Harney (rkm 308); some individuals made excursions as far upstream as Lake Poinsett (rkm 386+). Water levels varied among years (low‐water level: 2009 and 2011; higher water level: 2010), and lower water levels may have contributed to an apparent constriction of spawning grounds in 2009 and 2011. Telemetered shad selected deeper sections of river with faster currents. Our results verified that the primary spawning grounds for American shad in the St. Johns have not changed substantially in the past 50 years; thus, these areas should rank high for habitat protection. We also demonstrated linkages between American Shad distribution and habitat use and river flow that should be further developed and considered in future water withdrawal, regulation, or conservation efforts. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于数据同化的降雨数值空间分布模拟研究

降雨数值模拟是延长水文预报预见期的重要方法,但由于降雨数值模拟中驱动数据所提供的初始场和边界场条件和大气的实际状态并不是完全吻合,导致模拟结果存在误差。减小降雨数值模拟的误差是提高水文预报精度的关键问题,特别是在大气数值模式和分布式水文模型耦合模拟过程中,高精度的降雨信息是准确模拟的关键。本文基于WRF模式和三维变分数据同化方法,选取雷达反射率和GTS(Global Telecommunication System)数据作为同化资料,开展基于数据同化的降雨数值空间分布模拟研究,从降雨的空间展布和指标评价两方面对同化前后的模拟结果进行对比。结果表明:同化后的模拟数据在CSI指标和RMSE指标上都优于同化前的模拟数据,说明同化后模拟数据的误差小于同化前的误差;将同化前后的数据展布在网格图中,发现同化后的数据可以更加准确地刻画降雨的空间分布规律,说明通过数据同化方法提高了模拟降雨和实际降雨空间分布的一致性,改善了WRF模式模拟降雨空间分布的能力。