On the correlation between oscillations of the Caspian Sea level and the North Atlantic climate

Correlations between the changes in the climate of the Caspian Sea region and in its level and the variations in the North Atlantic climate are studied. The indices of North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), the intensity of Atlantic thermohaline circulation (ATHC), and the air humidity above the North Atlantic are used as basic indicators of climatic variations that influence the Caspian Sea. Results of an experiment for reproducing the World Ocean circulation and the parameterization of cyclic climate peculiarities made it possible to reveal their impact on the formation of Eurasian climatic variability and on the level regime of the Caspian Sea. This impact is studied through the variability of ATHC, the NAO index, and a composite index of moisture transport (CIMT) that is proposed as a result of the studies.     

On the observed relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation

We studied the relationship between the dominant patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. The patterns are known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). In the analysis we used two different observational data sets for SST. Due to the high degree of serial correlation in the PDO and AMO time series, various tests were carried out to assess the significance of the correlations. The results demonstrated that the correlations are significant when the PDO leads the AMO by 1 year and when the AMO leads the PDO by 11–12 years. The possible physical processes involved are discussed, along with their potential implication for decadal prediction.     

Can beach dune ridges of the Texas Gulf Coast preserve climate signals?

A study of the evolution of North Padre Island (southern Texas Gulf Coast) dunes was carried out using LIDAR topographic data, dune vibracores through the center of the dunes, and grab samples of shoreface sand at four locations along a cross-shore profile. Grain-size analyses of the vibracores show vertical variations in shoreface sand deposition over decimeter depth intervals. A dune ridge growth model is introduced that describes the dune vertical accretion rate as a function of island progradation and freshwater lens expansion. This model allows indirect dating of the dune core samples based on a known island progradation rate (1?m/year), and height and spacing of the dunes calculated from the topographic data. A sand provenance model is also proposed that links the sand deposition in the dunes with sand sourced from various depths along the shoreface profile, depending on storm activity. We present evidence linking the changes in storm-sand deposition in the dune cores with yearly climatic fluctuations in the Gulf of Mexico associated with landfalling tropical storm activity in the period from 1942?C1965. This record of storm-induced sand variability is negatively correlated with El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (Pacific) sea surface temperature variability, and positively correlated with North Atlantic decadal sea surface temperature variability.     

A review of the climatological characteristics of landfalling Gulf hurricanes for wind, wave, and surge hazard estimation

The climatological characteristics of landfalling Gulf of Mexico hurricanes are presented, focusing on the basic parameters needed for accurately determining the structure and intensity of hurricanes for ocean response models. These include the maximum sustained wind, radius of maximum winds, the Holland-B parameter, the peripheral or far-field pressure, the surface roughness and coefficient of drag, and the central pressure for historical hurricanes in the Gulf.Despite evidence of a slight increase in the annual number of named storms over the past 50 years, presently there is no statistically significant trend in tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, the long-term variability of tropical cyclones in the Gulf reflects the observed variability in the Atlantic basin as a whole. Analyses of hurricane winds from multiple sources suggest the presence of a bias toward overestimating the strength of winds in the HURDAT dataset from 7% to 15%. Results presented comparing HURDAT with other sources also show an overestimation of intensity at landfall, with an estimated bias of ~10%.Finally, a review of recent studies has shown that hurricane frequencies and intensities appear to vary on a much more localized scale than previously believed. This exacerbates the sampling problem for accurate characterization of hurricane parameters for design and operational applications.     

Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and phosphate-classified bottom-up control of Atlantic pelagic ecosystems through the 20th century

Both the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the North Atlantic Ocean (NA) biosphere have recognized associations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). These multidecadal physical–biological affinities inspired a closer look at AMOC influences on bottom-up control of NA and South Atlantic Ocean (SA) pelagic ecosystem variability. Various ocean models associate changes in the AMOC with sea surface temperature (SST) differences in the western subpolar NA and SA represented as the Atlantic Dipole SST Anomaly (ADSA) index. The Extended Reconstructed SST version 2 (ERSSTv2) dataset for 2° quadrangles from 1890 to 2007 was used here to represent Atlantic Ocean SST patterns and to gauge 20th century AMOC variability using an Atlantic Dipole SST (ADS) index, an un-normalized version of ADSA index. Temperature–phosphate (T–PO₄) linear regressions were used to convert temperature to phosphate concentration ([PO₄]). The interannual stability of T–PO₄ linear regressions first was examined using 26 Bermuda area T–PO₄ datasets between 1958 and 2001. Within the constraints provided by the Bermuda analysis, climatological T–PO₄ linear regressions based on GEOSECS-derived slopes and NODC-derived X-intercepts supported the conversion of monthly Atlantic Ocean ERSSTv2 temperatures for each 2° quadrangle to monthly surface [PO₄]. A representative annual surface phosphate utilization (SPU) was calculated for each 2° quadrangle by subtracting monthly minimum surface [PO₄] from monthly maximum surface [PO₄] to determine the annual surface [PO₄] ranges from 1890 to 2007. Annual average SST tended to increase and overall annual average SPU tended to decrease through the 20th century in both the NA and SA, but the NA exhibited more temporal variability. An Atlantic Dipole Phosphate Utilization (ADPU) index related to the ADS index was calculated for each year from 1890 to 2007. The ADS and ADPU indices were inversely correlated with about 57% of the variability in the ADPU index explained by the ADS index. The ADPU index exhibited three distinct cycles through the 20th century. Cross-correlation analysis showed that the NAO led the ADS and ADPU indices by about 14 years. Differences in annual average SPU for each Atlantic Ocean 2° quadrangle between the three high and four low years of the ADPU cycles yielded six maps that, when averaged, clearly exhibited reversed east–west patterns distributed in alternating latitudinal bands in both the NA and SA. The east–west patterns spatially corresponded to the NA and SA surface circulation and temporally resembled NA patterns previously associated with the NAO. AMOC variability, mediated by Kelvin and Rossby waves associated with changes in both deep and surface arm circulation, likely contributed to meridional continuity of phosphate-classified, NA, and SA pelagic ecosystem variability, including fisheries, through the 20th century. Based on the results, future global warming influences on the AMOC, well short of shutdown, likely will have complex pelagic ecosystem impacts throughout the Atlantic Ocean.     

IPCC AR4模式对热带气旋热力控制因子的模拟评估

海平面温度是影响热带气旋活动重要的大尺度环境热力控制因子,根据1948-1999年热带地区(30°S-30°N)海平面温度(SST)的气候场、线性趋势、年代际变化与年际变化的空间结构特征,分别就24个IPCC AR4模式的模拟性能进行评估.结果表明,虽然24个IPCC AR4模式对SST气候场的模拟性能都比较好,但大部...     

淡水径流影响下珊瑚温度计(B/Ca、Mg/Ca、Sr/Ca、U/Ca和δ18O)的稳定性测试

对南海北部珠江口采集的滨珊瑚骨骼地球化学温度计指标B/Ca、Mg/Ca、Sr/Ca、U/Ca和δ¹⁸O进行了分析,目的在于测试这些地化指标在径流冲淡水影响下的稳定性.测试方法是将各个地化指标与水温对比并进行相关性分析.结果表明,Sr/Ca比值与当地水温有最好的相关性(r²=0.59),说明Sr/Ca是最稳定的温度计指标.而δ¹⁸O(r²=0.46)、B/Ca(r²=0.43)和U/Ca(r²=0.41)与水温的相关系数相对较低,说明这些指标除受到水温控制以外还受到其他环境因素的影响.在这些指标中,相关性最低的是Mg/Ca(r²=0.27),说明Mg/Ca受到除水温以外的因素影响最为显著,这就限制了Mg/Ca作为有效的温度计指标应用于古气候重建的研究.     

Sedimentary records of multidecadal-scale variability of diatom productivity in the Bungo Channel, Japan, associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

In order to examine the responses of primary productivity in the southern coastal sea of Japan to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the 20th century, sedimentary records of diatom productivity (diatom valve fluxes) were reconstructed using core samples from the Bungo Channel (BC) in southwest Japan. The record of the Thalassionema spp. flux—the best index of fall primary productivity in the BC—indicated a multidecadal-scale duration with a low flux (1943–1982) and those with a high flux (1913–1943 and 1982–2001); apparent shifts were recognized in 1943 and 1982. The shift in 1982 was also recognized in the flux records of other early summer to fall predominant genera in the BC and, previously, in the biogenic silica records from a broad region of the southeast BC. This indicates that in our records, this shift reflects a general trend in the primary production in the southeast BC. A comparison among the Thalassionema spp. flux records, meteorological data from an observatory adjacent to the core site, and the PDO index showed that the flux records were more similar to the PDO index than the other meteorological records, which suggests that the multidecadal-scale variability of the BC primary productivity may be associated with some marine-derived forcing. The bottom intrusions of nutrient-rich water that upwelled from the shelf slope into the BC, the axis movement or the transport of the Kuroshio Current off the BC, and a basin-scale wind stress in the North Pacific might play an important role in this forcing and mediate between the BC primary productivity and the PDO.     

Year aridity index patterns in northwest China and the relationship to summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature

Aim to linking the variability of drought in northwest China to the oceanic influence of North Atlantic SSTs at the background of global warming and at the regional climate change shifting stages, year aridity index variations in northwest China and summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature （SST） variations are examined for the 44 a period of 1961-2004 using singular value decomposition （SVD） analysis. Results show that the SST anomalies （SSTA）in the North Atlantic in summer reflected three basic models. The first SVD mode of SST pattern shows a dipole - like variation with the positive center located at southwest and negative center at northeast of extratropical North Atlantic. And it strongly relates to the positive trend in AI variation in northwest China. The second coupled modes display the coherent positive anomalies in extratropical North Atlantic SST and the marked opposite trend of AI variability between north and south of Xinjiang. In addition, the lag correlation analysis of the first mode of SSTA and geopotential heights at 500 hPa variations also shows that the indication of the former influencing the latter configuration, which result in higher air temperature and less precipitation when the SSTA in the North Atlantic Ocean in summer motivated Eurasian circulation of EA pattern, further to influence the wet - dry variations in northwest China by the ocean-to - atmosphere forcing.     

Relation between sea surface temperature anomaly in the Atlantic and summer precipitation over the Northeast China

1 IwrRoDUcrIowln recen l00 years. mateorolQgi8ts have paid mu0h aneation to impact of ocean onlong-range weather process. Because fram view POillt of space and tAne scale condition,ocean is one of very important phySical factor for the evolotion of thespheric circulation.The scientific research cooperation grOup (l979) first found that SST in the equatorialeastern Pacific reversely correlates with summer tempendre aver Nowheast China. Pan etal (1981) discussed re1atfon between heating of…     

Connections between the Long-Period Variability Modes of Both Temperature and Depth of the Upper Mixed Layer of the North Atlantic and the Climate Variability Indices

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - The interannual–multidecadal variability of the temperature and depth of the upper mixed layer (UML) in the North Atlantic (NA) is analyzed on the...     

The Continuous Plankton Recorder survey and the North Atlantic Oscillation: Interannual- to Multidecadal-scale patterns of phytoplankton variability in the North Atlantic Ocean

At interannual to multidecadal time scales, much of the oceanographic and climatic variability in the North Atlantic Ocean can be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While evidence suggests that there is a relationship between the NAO and zooplankton dynamics in the North Atlantic Ocean, the phytoplankton response to NAO-induced changes in the environment is less clear. Time series of monthly mean phytoplankton colour values, as compiled by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, are analysed to infer relationships between the NAO and phytoplankton dynamics throughout the North Atlantic Ocean. While a few areas display highly significant (p < 0.05) trends in the CPR colour time series during the period 1948–2000, nominally significant (p < 0.20) positive trends are widespread across the basin, particularly on the continental shelves and in a transition zone stretching across the Central North Atlantic. When long-term trends are removed from both the NAO index and CPR colour time series, the correlation between them ceases to be significant. Several hypotheses are proposed to explain the observed variability in the CPR colour and its relationship with climate in the North Atlantic.     

Variations of sea surface temperature and primary productivity during Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger events in the northeastern Arabian Sea

Sea surface temperatures (SST) and primary productivities have been reconstructed for the northeastern Arabian Sea during the past 65,000 years, using C₃₇-alkenones. Comparison of this SST record with '¹⁸O from Greenland ice core GISP2 shows striking similarities, indicating an apparent linkage between the climate of the Arabian Sea with that of the northern North Atlantic, most probably via atmospheric and/or oceanic circulation. These rapid SST changes are in the long term overlain by insolation changes at 30°N.     

Multidecadal climate variability in the subtropics/mid‐latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere oceans

Observations of multidecadal variability in sea surface temperature (SST), surface air temperature and winds over the Southern Hemisphere are presented and an ocean general circulation model applied towards investigating links between the SST variability and that of the overlying atmosphere. The results suggest that the dynamical effect of the wind stress anomalies is significant mainly in the neighbourhood of the western boundary currents and their outflows across the mid‐latitudes of each Southern Hemisphere basin (more so in the South Indian and South Atlantic than in the South Pacific Ocean) and in the equatorial upwelling zones. Over most of the subtropics to mid‐latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere oceans, changes in net surface heat flux (particularly in latent heat) appear to be more important for the SST variability than dynamical effects. Implications of these results for modelling and understanding low frequency climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere as well as possible links with mechanisms of decadal/interdecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere are discussed.     

一维海洋混合层模式应用于二维数值模拟的试验研究

基于一个一维湍能海洋混合层模式,发展了一个易于与大气或海洋模式耦合的,可应用于水平二维空间的模块化海洋混合层模式。并加入垂直上翻参数化方案,引入日平均海面温度及气候态松弛项,进行二维海洋模拟理想气旋实验和飓风实例模拟实验。理想气旋强迫实验表明,垂直上翻过程的参数化方案可有效地弥补原有一维海洋混合层模式无法形成气旋中心动力上翻的不足,消除了虚假暖水核心。卡特里娜飓风个例实验的结果表明,加入垂直上翻后,飓风中心附近的海表面温度误差明显减小。海洋混合层模式对海洋表面温度日变化模拟能力在二维应用中依然表现良好。经过上述改进,发展的海洋混合层模式可以较为真实地模拟平常海表温度高频日变化的同时,还对剧烈天气过程也有一定的模拟能力,具有广泛的应用前景。     

Interannual variability in the wintertime air–sea flux of carbon dioxide in the northern North Atlantic, 1981–2001

Gridded fields of sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), and wind speed were used in combination with data for the atmospheric mole fraction of CO₂ and an empirical relationship between measured values of the fugacity of carbon dioxide in surface water and SST, to calculate the air–sea CO₂ flux in the northern North Atlantic. The flux was calculated for each of the months October–March, in the time period 1981 until 2001, allowing for an assessment of the interannual variations in the region. Locally and on a monthly time scale, the interannual variability of the flux could be as high as ±100% in regions seasonally covered by sea ice. However, in open-ocean areas the variability was normally between ±20% and ±40%. The interannual variability was found to be approximately halved when fluxes averaged over each winter season were compared. Summarised over the whole northern North Atlantic, the air to sea carbon flux over winter totalled 0.08 Gton, with an interannual variability of about ±7%. On a monthly basis the interannual variations were slightly higher, about ±8% to ±13%. Changes in wind speed and atmospheric fCO₂ (the latter directly related to SLP variations) accounted for most of the interannual variations of the computed air–sea CO₂ fluxes. A tendency for increasing CO₂ flux into the ocean with increasing values of the NAO index was identified.     

A 290-a record of atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific from a Mt.Logan ice core, Yukon Territory

Calibrations between sodium （Na^＋） concentrations from a Mt. Logan ice core and sea level pressure （SLP） series show that Na^＋ concentrations are closely correlated with the autumn-time （September-October-November） Aleutian low （AleuLow）. A deepening of the AleuLow strengthens the transport of sea-salt aerosols from the North Pacific to the Mt. Logan region. The Mt. Logan Na^＋ record is used to develop a 292 a （1688-1979） reconstruction of the AleuLow revealing a dramatic intensification of atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific region since the 20th century. Mean SLP of the AleuLow was about 1 hPa lower during the 20th century than during prior periods. The strongest deepening of the AleuLow appeared in the 1950s. Significant correlations are also found between the Mt. Logan AleuLow proxy series and the Pacific decadal oscillation （PDO） and Pacific circulation （PC） index during the 20th century. Evolutionary spectral analysis of the proxy record shows significant periodicities from 15 to 30 a consistent with PDO fluctuations and the bidecadal oscillation of North Pacific atmosphere-ocean circulation. A period of 11 a in the AleuLow record may be associated with the Schwabe 11-a cycle of sunspot activity. Additional longer ice core records from this region will aid in the efforts to further understand the climatic change over the North Pacific region.     

Spatial and temporal variability of coastal storms in the North Atlantic Basin

Over the past three to four decades, there has been a growing awareness of the important controls exerted by large-scale meteorological events on coastal systems. For example, definitive links are being established between short-term (timescales of 5–10 years) beach dynamics and storm frequency. This paper assesses temporal variability of coastal storms (both tropical and extratropical) and the wave climatology in the North Atlantic Basin (NAB), including the Gulf of Mexico. With both storm types, the empirical record shows decadal scale variability, but neither demonstrates highly significant trends that can be linked conclusively to natural or anthropogenic factors. Tropical storm frequencies have declined over the past two or three decades, which is perhaps related to recent intense and prolonged El Niños. Some forecasts predict higher frequencies of tropical storms like that experienced from the 1920s to the 1960s to occur in coming decades. Results from general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that overall frequencies of tropical storms could decrease slightly, but that there is potential for the generation of more intense hurricanes. These data have important implications for the short-term evolution of coastal systems.

There is strong suggestion that extratropical systems have declined overall over the past 50–100 years, but that there is an increase in frequency of very powerful storms, especially at higher latitudes. Both ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are shown to have associations with frequencies and tracking of these systems. These empirical results are in general agreement with GCM forecasts under global warming scenarios. Analyses of wave climatology in the NAB show that the last two to three decades have been rougher at high latitudes than several decades prior, but this more recent sea state is similar to conditions from about 100 years ago. The recent roughness at sea seems to be related to high NAO index values, which are also expected to increase with global warming. Thus, when coupled to an anticipated continued rise in global sea level, this trend will likely result in increasing loss of sediment from the beach-nearshore system resulting in widespread coastal erosion.     

海南岛东南部潟湖台风事件沉积记录

研究海岸潟湖沉积记录可恢复器测记录之前和史前时期热带气旋活动的频率和强度信息。本文试图通过分析潟湖沉积揭示南海北部地区的古台风活动信息,以海南岛东南部两个潟湖的钻孔沉积物为研究对象,选取沉积物粒度、有机质和碳酸盐含量等参数建立台风事件的鉴别指标,同时借助²¹⁰Pb CRS计年模式确定了沉积物柱状样的沉积速率和年代序列,对海南岛东南部的古风暴活动进行了分析。结果显示,柱状岩心清晰地记录了海南省东南部过去350年期间的35次特大风暴潮事件。基于历史文献和沉积记录的风暴沉积事件恢复了近350年来的风暴活动历史,发现海南省东南部特大风暴事件频数与厄尔尼诺强度有显著关系,同时还可能受到太平洋涛动（PDO）、北大西洋涛动（NAO）和太阳黑子活动等多种气候因素的综合影响。本文研究表明,结合风暴沉积记录和历史文献资料可为恢复海岸带地区长时间尺度高分辨率的古风暴活动规律提供有效信息。