Surface currents and equatorial thermocline in a coupled upper ocean-atmosphere GCM

The Oregon State University coupled upper ocean-atmosphere GCM is evaluated in terms of the simulated winds, ocean currents and thermocline depth variations. Although the zonal wind velocities in the model are underestimated by a factor of about three and the zonal current velocities are underestimated by a factor of about five, the model is seen to qualitatively simulate the major features of the gyral scale currents, and the phases of the seasonal variation of the principal equatorial currents are in reasonable agreement with observations. The simulated tropical currents are dominated by Ekman transport and the eastern boundary currents do not penetrate far enough equatorward, while the western boundary currents do not penetrate far enough poleward. The subtropical trade wind belt and the mid-latitude westerlies are displaced equatorward of observations; hence, the mid-latitude eastward currents, principally the Kuroshio-North Pacific Drift and the Gulf Stream-North Atlantic Current are displaced equatorward. In spite of these shortcomings the surface current simulation of this two-layer upper ocean model is comparable with that of other ocean GCMs of coarse resolution. The coupled model successfully simulates the deepening of the thermocline westward across Pacific as a consequence of the prevailing Walker circulation. The region of most intense simulated surface forcing is located in the western Pacific due to a southwestward displacement of the northeast trade winds relative to observations; hence the equatorial Pacific is dominated by eastward propagation of thermocline depth variations. The excessively strong Ekman divergence and upwelling in the western Pacific cools the local warm pool, while incorrectly simulated westerlies in the eastern Pacific suppress upwelling and inhibit cooling from below. These features reduce the simulated trans-Pacific sea-surface temperature gradient, weakening the Walker circulation and the anomalies associated with the simulated Southern Oscillation. Offprint requests to: KR Sperber     

GCM simulation of the Southern Oscillation from 1979–88

The Southern Oscillation (SO) is examined in three 10 year AMIP-type integrations of a 30-level GCM having prescribed monthly mean observed sea surface temperatures for the period January 1979 to December 1988. Three horizontal spectral resolutions of T21, T42 and T79 are investigated and the results are compared with the low-frequency variability, having periods longer than 8 months, in the observed Darwin and Tahiti sea level pressures (SLP) and in the T106 ECMWF analyses from May 1985 to April 1991. Both the ECMWF analyses and the GCM results give unrealistic SLP variability at Tahiti resulting in low Darwin-Tahiti SLP correlations and low S/N ratios for the Tahiti-Darwin SO index. The ECMWF analyses are in particularly poor agreement with the observations during 1987 with anomalously high SLP at Tahiti. Examination of the ECMWF assimilated SSTs, reveals that this may be related to the assimilated SSTs being too cold in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific during mid-1987. The GCM results show the familiar SLP dipole in the tropical Pacific albeit displaced eastwards compared to previous observational studies especially at T42 resolution, thus accounting for the problems at Tahiti which lies near strong gradients in the correlation pattern. Time-longitude diagrams of low-level convergence and correlation maps of upper-level streamfunction suggest that the model is reproducing the SO divergence anomalies although too weakly at T21 resolution and at different longitudinal locations at T42 and T79 resolutions. The time-mean low-level convergences in the GCM simulations give ITCZs and SPCZs in qualitative agreement with the observations with a tendency for increased convergence in the eastern Pacific ITCZ at higher resolution. Longitudinal shifts are not apparent in the time-mean convergence when comparing the GCM results at different resolutions.     

The role of lateral ocean physics in the upper ocean thermal balance of a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM

 The sensitivity of the upper ocean thermal balance of an ocean-atmosphere coupled GCM to lateral ocean physics is assessed. Three 40-year simulations are performed using horizontal mixing, isopycnal mixing, and isopycnal mixing plus eddy induced advection. The thermal adjustment of the coupled system is quite different between the simulations, confirming the major role of ocean mixing on the heat balance of climate. The initial adjustment phase of the upper ocean (SST) is used to diagnose the physical mechanisms involved in each parametrisation. When the lateral ocean physics is modified, significant changes of SST are seen, mainly in the southern ocean. A heat budget of the annual mixed layer (defined as the “bowl”) shows that these changes are due to a modified heat transfer between the bowl and the ocean interior. This modified heat intake of the ocean interior is directly due to the modified lateral ocean physics. In isopycnal diffusion, this heat exchange, especially marked at mid-latitudes, is both due to an increased effective surface of diffusion and to the sign of the isopycnal gradients of temperature at the base of the bowl. As this gradient is proportional to the isopycnal gradient of salinity, this confirms the strong role of salinity in the thermal balance of the coupled system. The eddy induced advection also leads to increased exchanges between the bowl and the ocean interior. This is both due to the shape of the bowl and again to the existence of a salinity structure. The lateral ocean physics is shown to be a significant contributor to the exchanges between the diabatic and the adiabatic parts of the ocean. Received: 24 January 2000 / Accepted: 11 September 2000     

Mechanisms of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Variability in a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM简

The mechanisms involved in the variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation （AMOC） are studied using a 2000-yr control simulation of the coupled Fast Ocean-Atmosphere Model （FOAM）.This study identifies a coupled mode between SST and surface heat flux in the North Atlantic at the decadal timescale,as well as a forcing mode of surface heat flux at the interannual timescale.The coupled mode is regulated by AMOC through meridional heat transport.The increase in surface heating in the North Atlantic weakens the AMOC approximately 10 yr later,and the weakened AMOC in turn decreases SST and sea surface salinity.The decreased SST results in an increase in surface heating in the North Atlantic,thus forming a positive feedback loop.Meanwhile,the weakened AMOC weakens northward heat transport and therefore lowers subsurface temperature approximately 19 yr later,which prevents the AMOC from weakening.In the forcing mode,the surface heat flux leads AMOC by approximately 4 yr.     

Analysis of the simulated climatic characters of the South Asia High with a flexible coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM

The ability of a climate model to reproduce the climatic characters of the South Asia High （SAH） is assessed by analyzing the 110-yr output of a Flexible Coupled GCM, version 0 （FGCM-0）. Comparing the results of FGCM-0 with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the major findings show that FGCM-0 has better results in simulation of the geopotential height field at 100 hPa, and reproduces fairly the main atmospheric circulation centers. However, there are still some differences in the simulated results compared with the reanalysis data. The coupled model also successfully reproduces the mean seasonal variation of the SAH, that is, it moves from the Pacific Ocean to the Asian continent, remaining over the Tibetan Plateau from winter to summer, and then withdraws from the Tibetan Plateau to the Pacific Ocean from summer to winter. However, such observed relationships between the SAH positions and the summer precipitation patterns cannot be fairly reproduced in the FGCM-0.     

North Atlantic decadal regimes in a coupled GCM simulation

 The non-stationarity of the North Atlantic atmosphere-ocean coupling is investigated utilizing a long time integration of a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (GCM) and a consistent atmospheric experiment forced by the climatological sea surface temperature (SST) of the coupled GCM. The temporal behavior of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is non-stationary with two different decadal regimes being identified: (a) phases with enhanced (active) low-frequency variability of the NAO index are characterized by regional modes with a baroclinic Pacific-North America (PNA) and a dominant barotropic North Atlantic pattern; (b) in phases with reduced (passive) low-frequency variability a global mode connects tropics and midlatitudes. The characteristic space scales are similar in the coupled and the consistent atmospheric experiment; the time scales of the atmospheric eigenmodes are modified by ocean dynamics. In the active (passive) phase the corresponding atmospheric mode is reinforced by the North Atlantic (tropical Pacific) SST. Received: 15 September 2000 / Accepted: 30 March 2001     

ENSO simulation in coupled ocean-atmosphere models: are the current models better?

Maintaining a multi-model database over a generation or more of model development provides an important framework for assessing model improvement. Using control integrations, we compare the simulation of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and its extratropical impact, in models developed for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report with models developed in the late 1990s [the so-called Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-2 (CMIP2) models]. The IPCC models tend to be more realistic in representing the frequency with which ENSO occurs, and they are better at locating enhanced temperature variability over the eastern Pacific Ocean. When compared with reanalyses, the IPCC models have larger pattern correlations of tropical surface air temperature than do the CMIP2 models during the boreal winter peak phase of El Niño. However, for sea-level pressure and precipitation rate anomalies, a clear separation in performance between the two vintages of models is not as apparent. The strongest improvement occurs for the modelling groups whose CMIP2 model tended to have the lowest pattern correlations with observations. This has been checked by subsampling the multi-century IPCC simulations in a manner to be consistent with the single 80-year time segment available from CMIP2. Our results suggest that multi-century integrations may be required to statistically assess model improvement of ENSO. The quality of the El Niño precipitation composite is directly related to the fidelity of the boreal winter precipitation climatology, highlighting the importance of reducing systematic model error. Over North America distinct improvement of El Niño forced boreal winter surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, and precipitation rate anomalies to occur in the IPCC models. This improvement is directly proportional to the skill of the tropical El Niño forced precipitation anomalies.     

El-Nino Southern Oscillation simulated and predicted in SNU coupled GCMs

The characteristics of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulated in free integrations using two versions of the Seoul National University (SNU) ocean–atmosphere coupled global climate model (CGCM) are examined. A revised version of the SNU CGCM is developed by incorporating a reduced air–sea coupling interval (from 1?day to 2?h), a parameterization for cumulus momentum transport, a minimum entrainment rate threshold for convective plumes, and a shortened auto-conversion time scale of cloud water to raindrops. With the revised physical processes, lower tropospheric zonal wind anomalies associated with the ENSO-related sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) are represented with more realism than those in the original version. From too weak, the standard deviation of SST over the eastern Pacific becomes too strong in the revised version due to the enhanced air–sea coupling strength and intraseasonal variability associated with ENSO. From the oceanic side, the stronger stratification and the shallower-than-observed thermocline over the eastern Pacific also contribute to the excessive ENSO. The impacts of the revised physical processes on the seasonal predictability are investigated in two sets of the hindcast experiment performed using the two versions of CGCMs. The prediction skill measured by anomaly correlation coefficients of monthly-mean SSTA shows that the new version has a higher skill over the tropical Pacific regions compared to the old version. The better atmospheric responses to the ENSO-related SSTA in the revised version lead to the basin-wide SSTA maintained and developed in a manner that is closer to observations. The symptom of an excessively strong ENSO of the new version in the free integration is not prominent in the hindcast experiment because the thermocline depth over the eastern Pacific is maintained as initialized over the arc of time of the hindcast (7?months).     

A GCM Study on the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation

The ability of AGCM to simulate the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) has been studied using the output of global spectral model (ALGCM (R42L9)) of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the outoput is compared with the results from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the year 1978-1989. The model displays an evident periodic signal of the tropical ISO. Basic propagating characters of the tropical ISO are captured, and changes in phase speed between Eastern and Western Hemispheres are also well presented, and the simulation of eastward propagation is better than that of westward propagation. This model has increased the ability to simulate the strength of the tropical ISO, especially at 200 hPa, and basically simulates the horizontal structure of wind characterized by the convergence in low-level and divergence in upper-level. The vertical structure of the zonal wind is also well reproduced. Moreover, observed results show that the representing of seasonal preference to form strong ISO in winter and spring is related to ISO's interannual variability, but it is shown in this model with strong ISO in winter and summer and weak ISO in spring and autumn. Structures of some physical elements such as vertical velocity, divergence, specific humidity, etc., and the special distribution of ISO have also differences with these from NCEP reanalysis data, which make it clear to develop this model to simulate the structure and spatial distribution of the ISO.     

Mean flow-transient perturbation interaction in the Southern Hemisphere: a simulation using a variable-resolution GCM

The ability of an atmospheric general circulation model to reproduce fundamental features of the wintertime extratropical Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation is evaluated with emphasis on the daily variability of the SH mean flow and the mean flow-transient perturbations interaction. Two 10-year simulations using a new version of the LMDZ GCM with a stretched grid scheme centered at 45 °S and forced by climatological SST are performed: a high (144Ꮡ) and low (64Ꭹ) horizontal resolution runs. The performance of both simulations was determined by comparing several simulated fields (zonal wind, temperature, kinetic energy, transient eddy momentum and heat fluxes, Eliassen-Palm fluxes, Eady growth rate and baroclinic conversion term) against the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast reanalyses (ERA). High and low-resolution simulations are similar in many respects; in particular, both experiments reproduce the main patterns of the southern extratropical large-scale circulation satisfactorily. Increasing resolution does not improve universally some spurious aspects of the low resolution simulation (e.g. the cold bias in the high polar troposphere, the debilitated subtropical jet, the low baroclinic conversion rate). Those aspects present little sensitivity to the model resolution. The interaction between transient eddies and zonal mean flow are examined. The low-resolution experiment is able to qualitatively represent the acceleration/deceleration of the mean flow by transient perturbations, south/north of 30 °S with an accuracy similar to that of the high-resolution experiment. Although both experiments represent the baroclinic structure of the mean flow satisfactorily, the model underestimates some transient properties due to the underestimation of the baroclinic conversion term in middle latitudes. Such misrepresentation does not improve with increasing resolution and is related to the relatively weak meridional temperature gradient and the inadequate geographical distribution of the eddy heat fluxes. In particular, the eddy kinetic energy is always underestimated. Eddy kinetic energy does not improve convincingly with increasing resolution, suggesting that the adequate representation of the storm tracks is highly influenced by the physical parametrizations.     

利用全球环流模式进行我国汛期短期气候预测的试验

利用OSU/NCC全球大气环流模式耦合全球混合层海洋与海冰模式,采用集合预报的方法,对中国汛期降水进行了1982~1995年共14年的跨季度综合性回报检验研究。结果表明,该模式对我国汛期降水具有一定的跨季度预报能力,对部分地区（江淮至华东沿海、东北部分地区等）有较强的预报能力。     

On the attractors of an intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model

Techniques of numerical bifurcation theory are used to study stationary and periodic solutions of an intermediate coupled model for tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction. The qualitative dynamical behavior is determined for a volume in parameter space spanned by the atmospheric damping length, the coupling parameter, the surface layer feedback strength and the relative adjustment time coefficient. Time integration methods have previously shown much interesting dynamics, including multiple steady states, eastward- or westward-propagating orbits and relaxation oscillations. The present study shows how this dynamics arises in parameter space through the interaction of the different branches of equilibrium solutions and the singularities on these branches. For example, we show that westward-propagating periodic orbits arise through an interaction of two unstable stationary modes and that relaxation oscillations occur through a limit cycle-saddle node interaction. There are several dynamical regimes in the coupled model which are determined by the primary bifurcation structure; this structure depends strongly on the parameters in the model. Although much of the dynamics may be studied in the fast-wave limit, it is shown that ocean wave dynamics introduces additional oscillatory instabilities and how these relate to propagating oscillations.     

North Atlantic Oscillation sensitivity to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation polarity in a large-ensemble simulation

A large ensemble modeling experiment with the Melbourne University General Circulation Model is presented. Thirty 17-year-long independent simulations were performed. All integrations were forced by the same observed sea surface temperatures, obtained from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project II. The simulations were analyzed to assess the sensitivity of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) polarity. The results show signals of the ENSO phases both in the mean strength of the NAO as well as in its internal variability. During the cold ENSO phase, the probability density function of the NAO index presents a small but positive mean value, whereas it is negative during the warm ENSO phase. Also, the NAO variability associated with each ENSO phase shows a different behavior: during the warm phase the probability density function of the NAO index presents a larger variance and suggests a bimodality, whereas no bimodality is suggested in the cold phase.     

ENSO phase-locking in an ocean-atmosphere coupled model FGCM-1.0

The mean climatology and the basic characteristics of the ENSO cycle simulated by a coupled model FGCM-1.0 are investigated in this study. Although with some common model biases as in other directly coupled models, FGCM-1.0 is capable of producing the interannual variability of the tropical Pacific, such as the ENSO phenomenon. The mechanism of the ENSO events in the coupled model can be explained by “delayed oscillator” and “recharge-discharge” hypotheses. Compared to the observations, the simulated ENSO events show larger amplitude with two distinctive types of phase-locking： one with its peak phase-locked to boreal winter and the other to boreal summer. These two types of events have a similar frequency of occurrence, but since the second type of event is seldom observed, it may be related to the biases of the coupled model. Analysis show that the heat content anomalies originate from the central south Pacific in the type of events peaking in boreal summer, which can be attributed to a different background climatology from the normal events. The mechanisms of their evolutions are also discussed.     

Adjustment and feedbacks in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model

 We report the analysis of two 20-year simulations performed with the low resolution version of the IPSL coupled ocean-atmosphere model, with no flux correction at the air-sea interface. The simulated climate is characterized by a global sea surface temperature warming of about 4 °C in 20 years, driven by a net heat gain at the top of the atmosphere. Despite this drift, the circulation is quite realistic both in the ocean and the atmosphere. Several distinct periods are analyzed. The first corresponds to an adjustment during which the heat gain weakens both at the top of the atmosphere and at the ocean surface, and the tropical circulation is slightly modified. Then, the surface warming is enhanced by an increase of the greenhouse feedback. We show that the mechanisms involved in the model share common features with sensitivity experiments to greenhouse gases or to SST warming. At the top of the atmosphere, most of the longwave trapping in the atmosphere is driven by the tropical circulation. At the surface, the reduction of longwave cooling is a direct response to increased temperature and moisture content at low levels in the atmospheric model. During the last part of the simulation, a regulation occurs from evaporation at the surface and longwave cooling at TOA. Most of the model drift is attributed to a too large heating by solar radiation in middle and high latitudes. The reduction of the north–south temperature gradient, and the related changes in the meridional equator-to-pole ocean heat transport lead to a warming of equatorial and subtropical regions. This is also well demonstrated by the difference between the two simulations which differ only in the parametrization of sea-ice. When the sea-ice cover is not restored to climatology the model does not maintain sea-ice at high latitudes. The climate warms more rapidly and the water vapor and clouds feedback occurs earlier. Received: 24 May 1996 / Accepted: 29 November 1996     

The seasonal cycle in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models

We examine the seasonal cycle of near-surface air temperature simulated by 17 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Nine of the models use ad hoc “flux adjustment” at the ocean surface to bring model simulations close to observations of the present-day climate. We group flux-adjusted and non-flux-adjusted models separately and examine the behavior of each class. When averaged over all of the flux-adjusted model simulations, near-surface air temperature falls within 2?K of observed values over the oceans. The corresponding average over non-flux-adjusted models shows errors up to ～6?K in extensive ocean areas. Flux adjustments are not directly applied over land, and near-surface land temperature errors are substantial in the average over flux-adjusted models, which systematically underestimates (by ～5?K) temperature in areas of elevated terrain. The corresponding average over non-flux-adjusted models forms a similar error pattern (with somewhat increased amplitude) over land. We use the temperature difference between July and January to measure seasonal cycle amplitude. Zonal means of this quantity from the individual flux-adjusted models form a fairly tight cluster (all within ～30% of the mean) centered on the observed values. The non-flux-adjusted models perform nearly as well at most latitudes. In Southern Ocean mid-latitudes, however, the non-flux-adjusted models overestimate the magnitude of January-minus-July temperature differences by ～5?K due to an overestimate of summer (January) near-surface temperature. This error is common to five of the eight non-flux-adjusted models. Also, over Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude land areas, zonal mean differences between July and January temperatures simulated by the non-flux-adjusted models show a greater spread (positive and negative) about observed values than results from the flux-adjusted models. Elsewhere, differences between the two classes of models are less obvious. At no latitude is the zonal mean difference between averages over the two classes of models greater than the standard deviation over models. The ability of coupled GCMs to simulate a reasonable seasonal cycle is a necessary condition for confidence in their prediction of long-term climatic changes (such as global warming), but it is not a sufficient condition unless the seasonal cycle and long-term changes involve similar climatic processes. To test this possible connection, we compare seasonal cycle amplitude with equilibrium warming under doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide for the models in our data base. A small but positive correlation exists between these two quantities. This result is predicted by a simple conceptual model of the climate system, and it is consistent with other modeling experience, which indicates that the seasonal cycle depends only weakly on climate sensitivity.     

Organization of tropical convection in a GCM with varying vertical resolution; implications for the simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

 Experiments using a GCM with two different vertical resolutions show differences in the amount of variability in the tropical upper tropospheric zonal wind component associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The GCM with lower vertical resolution shows very little variability in this quantity whereas when the vertical resolution is doubled in the free troposphere, the GCM produces variability which is of the same strength as observations. However, the eastward propagation of an enhanced convective region from the Indian Ocean into the west Pacific is not well represented in either simulation of this atmospheric GCM. A water-covered or “aqua-planet” version of the same GCM is used to investigate the behaviour of tropical convection when the vertical resolution is doubled. When the vertical resolution is increased, the spectrum of tropical cloud types changes from a bimodal distribution with peaks representing shallow cumulus and deep cumulonimbus clouds to a trimodal distribution with a third peak in mid-troposphere near the melting level. Associated with periods when these mid-level congestus clouds are dominant, the detrainment from these clouds significantly moistens the mid-troposphere. The appearance of these congestus clouds is shown to be partly due to improved resolution of the freezing level and the convective processes occurring at this level. However, due to the way in which convective detrainment is parametrized in this model, the vertical profile becomes rather noisy and this too contributes to the change in the nature of the convective clouds. The resulting cloud distribution more closely resembles observations, particularly during the suppressed phase of the MJO when cumulus congestus is the dominant cloud type. Received: 17 April 2000 / Accepted: 30 November 2000     

Unstable behaviour of an upper ocean-atmosphere coupled model: role of atmospheric radiative processes and oceanic heat transport

We describe the initial bias of the climate simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The atmospheric component is a state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model, whereas the ocean component is limited to the upper ocean and includes a mixed layer whose depth is computed by the model. As the full ocean general circulation is not computed by the model, the heat transport within the ocean is prescribed. When modifying the prescribed heat transport we also affect the initial drift of the model. We analyze here one of the experiments where this drift is very strong, in order to study the key processes relating the changes in the ocean transport and the evolution of the model's climate. In this simulation, the ocean surface temperature cools by 1.5°C in 20 y. We can distinguish two different phases. During the first period of 5 y, the sea surface temperatures become cooler, particularly in the intertropical area, but the outgoing longwave radiation at the top-of-the-atmosphere increases very quickly, in particular at the end of the period. An off-line version of the model radiative code enables us to decompose this behaviour into different contributions (cloudiness, specific humidity, air and surface temperatures, surface albedo). This partitioning shows that the longwave radiation evolution is due to a decrease of high level cirrus clouds in the intertropical troposphere. The decrease of the cloud cover also leads to a decrease of the planetary albedo and therefore an increase of the net short wave radiation absorbed by the system. But the dominant factor is the strong destabilization by the longwave cooling, which is able to throw the system out of equilibrium. During the remaining of the simulation (second phase), the cooling induced by the destabilization at the top-of-the-atmosphere is transmitted to the surface by various processes of the climate system. Hence, we show that small variations of ocean heat transport can force the model from a stable to an unstable state via atmospheric processes which arise wen the tropics are cooling. Even if possibly overestimated by our GCM, this mechanism may be pertinent to the maintenance of present climatic conditions in the tropics. The simplifications inherent in our model's design allow us to investigate the mechanism in some detail. Received: 18 February 1998 / Accepted: 22 April 1999