鄱阳湖区洪灾风险与农户脆弱性分析

运用1:5 万DEM 地形数据对鄱阳湖区洪涝灾害风险区区域范围及空间分布进行了分析。在此基础上, 以乡镇为基本研究单元, 选取乡村人口比重、耕地面积比重为洪灾风险暴露分析指标, 选取单位面积生产总值、农民人均纯收入、第一产业从业人员比重、农业收入占农村经济总收入比重等为农户洪灾应对能力分析指标, 并引入了不同洪水水位特征值的影响系数, 对鄱阳湖区农户洪灾脆弱性程度进行了定量研究。结果表明, 鄱阳湖洪灾风险区面积广、影响深, 农户对洪涝灾害总体上存在着较高的脆弱性; 在所涉及的180 个乡镇中, 农户脆弱度高于平均值的有100 个, 占到乡镇数55.56%。脆弱度最高的乡镇主要集中在滨湖地带及五河干流沿岸地区, 而脆弱度较低的乡镇则主要分布在湖区各县城关镇所在区域。     

洪灾风险评价与区划研究进展

洪灾风险评价是洪灾风险管理的首要步骤。洪灾风险区划是在洪灾风险评价基础上的宏 观分区, 有助于更清晰的把握洪灾风险的空间格局与内在规律。文章首先对洪灾风险相关概念进 行了阐述, 试图达到理清和规范的目的。然后对洪灾风险评价常用方法和洪灾风险区划研究进行 了评述。目前主要的洪灾风险评价方法有地貌学方法、水文水力学模型与系统仿真模拟方法、基 于历史灾情数据的方法、基于水灾史料和古洪水调查的方法、遥感与GIS 方法、基于洪灾形成机 制的系统分析方法等。最后对洪灾风险评价与洪灾风险区划研究进行了小结, 并指出了未来在洪 灾风险评价与区划的数据基础、洪灾风险评价的时空尺度、洪灾风险区划的理论与方法、洪灾风 险评价与区划的技术手段等方面的可能发展前景。     

洪灾风险评价与区划研究进展

洪灾风险评价是洪灾风险管理的首要步骤。洪灾风险区划是在洪灾风险评价基础上的宏 观分区, 有助于更清晰的把握洪灾风险的空间格局与内在规律。文章首先对洪灾风险相关概念进 行了阐述, 试图达到理清和规范的目的。然后对洪灾风险评价常用方法和洪灾风险区划研究进行 了评述。目前主要的洪灾风险评价方法有地貌学方法、水文水力学模型与系统仿真模拟方法、基 于历史灾情数据的方法、基于水灾史料和古洪水调查的方法、遥感与GIS 方法、基于洪灾形成机 制的系统分析方法等。最后对洪灾风险评价与洪灾风险区划研究进行了小结, 并指出了未来在洪 灾风险评价与区划的数据基础、洪灾风险评价的时空尺度、洪灾风险区划的理论与方法、洪灾风 险评价与区划的技术手段等方面的可能发展前景。     

基于栅格的鄱阳湖生态经济区洪灾脆弱性评价

目前洪灾脆弱性研究主要是基于行政区划上的社会脆弱性评价,无法揭示评价单元内部脆弱性的空间分布。选取鄱阳湖生态经济区作为研究对象,根据人与环境系统的特点,选择影响洪灾脆弱性的15个变量,建立了基于栅格的洪灾脆弱性综合指数模型。结果表明,研究区域的洪灾脆弱性以中度脆弱为主,极度与高度脆弱区主要分布在人口密集的鄱阳湖东南与西南部的湖滨地区、主要河流的缓冲区以及土地利用类型为水田的区域。从脆弱性的3个要素(暴露度、敏感性和适应能力)的空间分布揭示了洪灾脆弱性空间分布形成的原因。基于栅格的评价结果,能够充分反映县市内部和行政边界处洪灾脆弱性的空间分布与变化情况。     

广州洪灾风险评价研究

基于地理信息系统,综合运用模糊数学层次分析法和因子叠加法,对广州市分别进行洪灾危险性评价和承灾体脆弱性评价。再结合洪水危险性和承灾体的脆弱性的权重,运用G IS软件生成洪灾风险综合评价图。通过对洪灾风险综合评价图的分析,得出以下结论:总的看来,广州市洪灾的格局为:纵向南部风险高,北部风险低;横向东、西两翼风险高,中央风险低。评价结果可为广州市防洪减灾提供借鉴。     

张家界农户乡村旅游脆弱性评价与影响因素

以张家界7个村庄334户农户为研究对象,运用参与式农村评估法(PRA)、主成分分析法、聚类分析法和多元线性回归等方法,分析不同类型农户脆弱性指数以及脆弱性影响因素。研究结果表明:①农户乡村旅游脆弱性类型可分为意识脆弱型、社交脆弱型、人力脆弱型、发展均衡型和全面脆弱型5种类型;②总体脆弱性方面,不同类型农户的总体脆弱程度均为脆弱,各自脆弱性指数不一,且非旅游农户高于旅游农户;③因子脆弱性中除社交脆弱型农户的民俗文化因子脆弱性指数高于农户认知因子脆弱性外,其他类型农户的人力素质、社会网络、生计资本和农户认知等4个因子脆弱性指数均高于政策制度、生态环境和民俗文化等3个因子脆弱性指数;④人力、文化和生态等方面的因子是影响农户乡村旅游脆弱性的主要因素。最后,从提升生计资本、传承民俗文化和保护生态环境等方面提出降低农户乡村旅游脆弱性的几点建议。     

环鄱阳湖区农家菜地土壤重金属风险评价及来源分析

通过评价环鄱阳湖区10个县农家菜地土壤样品重金属的潜在生态风险,分析其与9个社会经济指标间的灰色关联度来探讨重金属的污染来源。结果显示,鄱阳湖区各菜地土壤中Cd的超标情况最严重,超标率达到90%,除部分地区Cu超标外,其余重金属均未超标。鄱阳湖区农家菜地土壤达到轻微生态风险,工业较发达地区重金属生态风险较大于工业落后地区,工业发展情况对湖区的空间污染分异有较大影响。蔬菜产量、工业发展情况、城镇化率、交通业发展情况和菜地土壤不同种重金属具有较高关联度,而地区生产总值、农药使用量对各种重金属含量的影响最弱。     

基于GIS和ANN的农户生计脆弱性的空间模拟分析

基于农户生计脆弱性测定方式的不完善和云贵高原缺乏农户生计脆弱性研究,选取云南省宜良县为案例区,构建了农户生计脆弱性评价指标体系,包括农户面临的风险、农户生计资本和面对风险的应急能力,并运用GIS与BP神经网络模拟区域的风险度指数、农户生计资本和应急能力指数的空间分布格局。在此基础上,得到农户生计脆弱性指数,结果表明坝区的生计脆弱性指数为山区>半山区>坝区,且各自原因不同。可见,运用BP神经网络模拟生计脆弱性简便实用,是一种可行的实践方法。     

灌溉管理改革背景下农户生计脆弱性评估

灌溉管理改革有助于提高水资源管理效率,完善灌溉管理体制,降低农户生计脆弱性。以内蒙古地区为例,基于可持续生计分析框架,构建农户生计脆弱性定量评估指标体系。利用内蒙古5个旗县区的353户农户样本数据,对灌溉管理改革地区和非改革地区农户的生计脆弱性进行了评估。结果表明:改革地区的脆弱性程度为-2.19,非改革地区的脆弱性程度为-1.76,两类地区农户的适应能力都比较高,脆弱性较低,但非改革地区的脆弱性要大于改革地区,灌溉管理改革对降低农户生计脆弱性具有重要意义。原因在于灌溉管理改革改善了农户所处的脆弱性环境,提高了生计资本水平,增强了农户的适应能力。为提升农户福利水平,降低其生计脆弱性,在以后的工作中需要加强农户可持续生计能力建设;需要政府的正确引导和大力扶持,为灌溉管理改革的发展提供优惠政策和资金支持;同时还要强化农户抵抗自然灾害风险能力建设,从长期预防和短期应急两个方面来强化农户抵抗风险的能力,多渠道降低农户的生计脆弱性。     

沿海区域水灾脆弱性及风险的的初步分析

在理清自然灾害风险系统构成的基础上,总结其风险评估的三种方法:基于历史数据、指标体系和情景模拟。文章采用由果及因的演绎思路,据历史灾情参考全球尺度灾害风险评估国际计划做脆弱性的评估,探讨水灾脆弱性的区域分异规律,并分析其社会经济因素。由于历史数据局限,引入信息扩散的模糊数学方法,对沿海各省区的受灾率进行风险评估,并将区域风险与脆弱性的次序进行对比,表明:脆弱性是风险的重要组分,减少脆弱性可有效降低风险,但探寻灾害发生规律、降低人类社会的暴露性,也是减少灾害风险的必要环节。     

Farmers&rsquo|vulnerability to flood risk: A case study in the Poyang Lake Region

This paper quantitatively explores farmers’ vulnerability to flood in the Poyang Lake Region (PLR) with the supports of GIS spatial functions. The analysis consists of three major steps, which is based on the spatial unit of township. Firstly, the spatial extent and charac-teristics of flood risk areas were determined using a digital elevation model (DEM) derived from the 1:50,000 topographic map. Secondly, for each of the township, six indices indicating the economic activities of local farmers were calculated. These indices are: rural population proportion, cultivated land proportion, GDP per unit area, employment proportion of primary industry, net rural income per capita and agricultural income proportion. These six indices were then normalized and used for later vulnerability assessment. Thirdly, the normalized indices (as GIS data layers) were overlaid with the flood risk areas to produce the risk coeffi-cient for each township and to calculate the overall vulnerability for each township. The analysis results show that in the PLR there are high flood risk areas where the farmers’ livings are seriously influenced or threatened. About 55.56% of the total 180 townships in the flood risk areas have a high degree of flood vulnerability. The townships under flood risk are mainly distributed in the areas around the Poyang Lake and the areas along the “five rivers”.     

Farmers＇ vulnerability to flood risk： A case study in the Poyang Lake Region

This paper quantitatively explores farmers＇ vulnerability to flood in the Poyang Lake Region （PLR） with the supports of GIS spatial functions. The analysis consists of three major steps, which is based on the spatial unit of township. Firstly, the spatial extent and characteristics of flood risk areas were determined using a digital elevation model （DEM） derived from the 1：50,000 topographic map. Secondly, for each of the township, six indices indicating the economic activities of local farmers were calculated. These indices are： rural population proportion, cultivated land proportion, GDP per unit area, employment proportion of primary industry, net rural income per capita and agricultural income proportion. These six indices were then normalized and used for later vulnerability assessment. Thirdly, the normalized indices （as GIS data layers） were overlaid with the flood risk areas to produce the risk coefficient for each township and to calculate the overall vulnerability for each township. The analysis results show that in the PLR there are high flood risk areas where the farmers＇ livings are seriously influenced or threatened. About 55.56% of the total 180 townships in the flood risk areas have a high degree of flood vulnerability. The townships under flood risk are mainly distributed in the areas around the Poyang Lake and the areas along the ＂five rivers＂.     

Landscape Changes and Increasing Flood Frequency in China's Poyang Lake Region*

Jiangxi Province in southeastern China contains Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China. Poyang Lake and the lower sections of the major Jiangxi rivers flowing into the lake often flood during the early summer months. Floodwater can be several meters above the surrounding lowlands during the most severe flood events. Levees at the margins of Poyang Lake and along the Jiangxi rivers provide flood protection for about 10 million people. The number of severe floods in this region has increased rapidly during the past few decades, resulting in catastrophic levee failures. The three factors likely responsible for the increasing frequency of severe floods are (1) land reclamation and levee construction and (2) lake sedimentation, both of which reduce lake volume, and (3) increasing Changjiang water level, which slows Poyang Lake drainage.     

Landscape Changes and Increasing Flood Frequency in China's Poyang Lake Region*

Abstract

Jiangxi Province in southeastern China contains Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China. Poyang Lake and the lower sections of the major Jiangxi rivers flowing into the lake often flood during the early summer months. Floodwater can be several meters above the surrounding lowlands during the most severe flood events. Levees at the margins of Poyang Lake and along the Jiangxi rivers provide flood protection for about 10 million people. The number of severe floods in this region has increased rapidly during the past few decades, resulting in catastrophic levee failures. The three factors likely responsible for the increasing frequency of severe floods are (1) land reclamation and levee construction and (2) lake sedimentation, both of which reduce lake volume, and (3) increasing Changjiang water level, which slows Poyang Lake drainage.     

鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程水位调控方案的探讨

利用历史水文资料、越冬候鸟分布调查资料及基础地理数据等, 从鄱阳湖形态的历史演变和鄱阳湖越冬候鸟生境保护的角度, 探讨鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程的水位调控方案。研究得到以下结论和建议:(1) 在维持鄱阳湖形态不变的情况下, 为有效保护越冬候鸟生境不受水利枢纽工程水位调控的影响, 工程调控水位不宜超过12 m, 但由于低水位运行不利于水利枢纽工程工程效益的发挥, 而高水位运行不利于越冬候鸟栖息地的保护, 为调和工程效益和候鸟保护之间的矛盾, 建议实施适当退田还湖, 以促进鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程的规划实施;(2) 根据地形、越冬候鸟分布范围、圩堤内居民点分布以及圩堤内土地利用现状, 提出了约640 km²实施退田还湖范围;(3) 以退田还湖为前提, 按照“调枯不调洪”原则, 提出鄱阳湖水利枢纽工程的水位调控方案, 为工程的推进和实施提供参考。     

Farmer-based Rice Cropping Systems in the Poyang Lake Region,China: Analysis of Characteristics and Policy Implications

This paper examines the spatial characteristics of farmer/household behaviors in regional rice cropping systems (RCS), and the results provide necessary information for developing strategies that will maintain regional food security. Through field study and statistical analysis based on 402 households questionnaires finished in 2014-2015 in the Poyang Lake Region (PLR) of China, we arrived at two main conclusions. First, single- and double cropping rice were found across the study area, but showed a general distribution trend, with double cropping rice in the southeast part (especially in Jinxian county) and single cropping rice in the northwest (particularly in De’an county). Second, the household decisions concerning RCS varied in different parts of the PLR, but double cropping was the dominant type, with about 63.57% of the respondent households in the PLR cultivating double cropping rice. However, the multiple-cropping index of paddy rice was only 1.55. About 3% of interviewed households had altered their RCS during this period. Based on these findings, the local governments should guide farmers’ paddy field cultivation behaviors by increasing the comparative efficiency of rice production, promoting appropriate scale operations and land conversion, as well as optimizing rice growing conditions to improve the multiple cropping index and enhance food provision. Finally, land-use efficiency and more sustainable use of land resources should be improved.     

鄱阳湖区鸟类种类探讨

依据有关鄱阳湖区的调查、监测和研究文献,特别是近30年来在鄱阳湖开展的陆生野生动物资源调查和第一、第二次鄱阳区科学考察成果,以郑光美《中国鸟类分类与分布名录(第二版)》作为分类系统,对鄱阳湖区的鸟类名录进行了系统整理,除了增补新记录种外,还对一些有争议的鸟种进行了讨论和订正。结果表明:到目前为止,鄱阳湖共有鸟类426种,隶属18目69科,占中国鸟类总种数的31.07%,其中国家Ⅰ级重点保护鸟类有11种,国家Ⅱ级重点保护鸟类66种,江西省重点保护鸟类88种。     

Wetland vegetation biomass estimation and mapping from Landsat ETM data:a case study of Poyang Lake

Poyang Lake is the largest freshwater lake in China. This paper conducted a digital and rapid investigation of the lake’s wetland vegetation biomass using Landsat ETM data acquired on April 16, 2000. First, utilizing the false color composite derived from the ETM data as one of the main references, the authors designed a reasonable sampling route for field measurement of the biomass, and carried it out on April 18-28, 2000. Then after both the sampling data and the ETM data were geometrically corrected to an equal-area projection of Albers, linear relationships among the sampling data and some transformed data derived from the ETM data and the ETM 4 were calculated. The results show that the sampling data is best relative to the band 4 data with a high correlation coefficient of 0.86, followed by the DVI and NDVI data with 0.83 and 0.80 respectively. Therefore, a linear regression model, which was based on the field data and band 4 data, was used to estimate the total biomass of entire Poyang Lake, and then the map of the biomass distribution was compiled.