Testing for Stationarity in Multivariate Locally Stationary Processes

In this article, we propose a nonparametric procedure for validating the assumption of stationarity in multivariate locally stationary time series models. We develop a bootstrap‐assisted test based on a Kolmogorov–Smirnov‐type statistic, which tracks the deviation of the time‐varying spectral density from its best stationary approximation. In contrast to all other nonparametric approaches, which have been proposed in the literature so far, the test statistic does not depend on any regularization parameters like smoothing bandwidths or a window length, which is usually required in a segmentation of the data. We additionally show how our new procedure can be used to identify the components where non‐stationarities occur and indicate possible extensions of this innovative approach. We conclude with an extensive simulation study, which shows finite‐sample properties of the new method and contains a comparison with existing approaches.     

Moving Fourier Analysis for Locally Stationary Processes with the Bootstrap in View

We introduce a moving Fourier transformation for locally stationary time series, which captures the time‐varying spectral density in a similar manner as the classical Fourier transform does for stationary time series. In particular, the resulting Fourier coefficients as well as moving local periodograms are shown to be (almost all) asymptotically uncorrelated. The moving local periodogram is obtained by thinning the local periodogram to avoid multiple information present at different but close points in time. We obtain consistent estimators for the local spectral density at each point in time by smoothing the moving local periodogram. Furthermore, the moving Fourier coefficients, respectively periodograms, are well suited to adapt stationary frequency domain bootstrap methods to the locally stationary case. For the wild time frequency toggle bootstrap, it is shown that the corresponding bootstrap covariance of a global locally stationary bootstrap samples captures the time‐varying covariance structure of the underlying locally stationary time series correctly. Furthermore, this bootstrap in addition to adaptations of other frequency domain bootstrap methods is used in a simulation study to obtain uniform confidence bands for the time‐varying autocorrelation at lag 1. Finally, this methodology is applied to a wind data set.     

Testing Composite Hypotheses for Locally Stationary Processes

For a class of locally stationary processes introduced by Dahlhaus, this paper discusses the problem of testing composite hypotheses. First, for the Gaussian likelihood ratio test (GLR), Wald test (W) and Lagrange multiplier test (LM), we derive the limiting distribution under a composite hypothesis in parametric form. It is shown that the distribution of GLR, W and LM tends to a χ² distribution under the hypothesis. We also evaluate their local powers under a sequence of local alternatives, and discuss their asymptotic optimality. The results can be applied to testing for stationarity. Some examples are given. They illuminate the local power property via simulation. On the other hand, we provide a nonparametric LAN theorem. Based on this result, we obtain the limiting distribution of the GLR under both null and alternative hypotheses described in nonparametric form. Finally, the numerical studies are given.     

Walsh Fourier Transform of Locally Stationary Time Series

A new time-frequency model and a method to classify time series data are proposed in this article. By viewing the observed signals as realizations of locally dyadic stationary (LDS) processes, a LDS model can be used to provide a time-frequency decomposition of the signals, under which the evolutionary Walsh spectrum and related statistics can be defined and estimated. The classification procedure is as follows. First choose a training data set that comprises two groups of time series with a known group. Then compute the time frequency feature (the energy) using the training data set, and use a best tree method to maximize the discrepancy of this feature between the two groups. Finally, choose the testing data set with the unknown group as validation data, and use a discriminant statistic to classify the validation data to one of the groups. The classification method is illustrated via an electroencephalographic dataset and the Ericsson B transaction time dataset. The proposed classification method performs better for integer-valued time series in terms of classification error rates in both simulations and real-life applications.     

Moving Average Representations for Multivariate Stationary Processes

Abstract. Backward and forward moving average (MA) representations are established for multivariate stationary processes. It is observed that in the multivariate case, in contrast to the univariate case, the backward and forward MA coefficients correspondingly, in general, are different. A method is presented to adopt the known techniques in deriving the backward MA to obtain the forward ones.     

Local Cross-validation for Spectrum Bandwidth Choice

We investigate an automatic method of determining a local bandwidth for non-parametric kernel spectral density estimates at a single frequency. This procedure is a modification of a cross-validation technique for global bandwidth choices, avoiding the computation of any pilot estimate based on initial bandwidths or on approximate parametric models. Only local conditions on the spectral density around the frequency of interest are assumed. We illustrate with a Monte Carlo study the performance in finite samples of the bandwidth estimates proposed.     

Empirical Characteristic Functions-Based Estimation and Distance Correlation for Locally Stationary Processes

In this article, we propose a kernel-type estimator for the local characteristic function of locally stationary processes. Under weak moment conditions, we prove joint asymptotic normality for local empirical characteristic functions. For time-varying linear processes, we establish a central limit theorem under the assumption of finite absolute first moments of the process. Additionally, we prove weak convergence of the local empirical characteristic process. We apply our asymptotic results to parameter estimation. Furthermore, by extending the notion of distance correlation to locally stationary processes, we are able to provide asymptotic theory for local empirical distance correlations. Finally, we provide a simulation study on minimum distance estimation for α-stable distributions and illustrate the pairwise dependence structure over time of log returns of German stock prices via local empirical distance correlations.     

Specification Tests for the Variance of a Diffusion

We propose specification tests for the variance of a diffusion that do not require complete knowledge of the functional form under the null. We first propose a test for the constancy of the variance that, under the null of constancy, has a limiting normal distribution, while under the alternative of either unconditional or conditional heteroskedasticity it diverges at an appropriate rate. We then propose a test for the null of a parametric specification against the alternative of a more general functional form. Under the null, the test has a well-defined limiting distribution, normal in the unconditional and mixed normal in the conditional heteroskedasticity case; under the alternative, it diverges.     

On the Optimal Segment Length for Parameter Estimates for Locally Stationary Time Series

We discuss the behaviour of parameter estimates when stationary time series models are fitted locally to non-stationary processes which have an evolutionary spectral representation. A particular example is the estimation for an autoregressive process with time-varying coefficients by local Yule–Walker estimates. The bias and the mean squared error for the parameter estimates are calculated and the optimal length of the data segment is determined.     

Note on the Asymptotic Efficiency of Sample Covariances in Gaussian Vector Stationary Processes

In this note certain results obtained by Porat ( J. Time Ser. Anal. 8 (1987), 205–20) and Kakizawa and Taniguchi ( J. Time Ser. Anal. 15 (1994), 303–11) concerning the asymptotic efficiency of sample autocovariances of a zero-mean Gaussian stationary process are extended to the case of m -vector processes. It is shown that, for Gaussian vector AR( p ) processes, the sample autocovariance matrix at lag k is asymptotically efficient if 0 ≤ k ≤ p . Further, none of the sample autocovariance matrices is asymptotically efficient for Gaussian vector MA( q ) processes.     

Simulation of Real Discrete Time Gaussian Multivariate Stationary Processes with Given Spectral Densities

In this article we establish a simulation procedure to generate values for a real discrete time multivariate stationary process, based on a factor of spectral density matrix. We prove the convergence of the simulator, at each time epoch, to the actual process, and provide the corresponding rate of convergence. We merely assume that the spectral density matrix is continuous and of bounded variation. By using the positive root factor, we provide an extended version for the Sun and Chaika ( 1997 ) simulator, for real univariate stationary processes.     

Tests for Comparing Time‐Invariant and Time‐Varying Spectra Based on the Pearson Statistic

Two tests are proposed in this paper for comparing spectra of two univariate time series. One is a Pearson‐like statistic based only on periodograms of the compared time series and applicable for testing the equality of two time‐invariant spectra of two independent or dependent time series, with an asymptotic chi‐squared distribution under the null hypothesis. The other is based on the maximum of the Pearson‐like statistics. Not only does this test, again, depend only on periodograms but also approximately equals the maximum of a chi‐squared distribution of the same degrees of freedom under the null. It can be used to test the equality of spectra of two locally stationary time series regardless of whether they are dependent or independent. Multiple simulation examples show that both statistics achieve good performance. The proposed approach is illustrated by an application to longitudinal vibration data from a container ship.     

Estimation of the location and exponent of the spectral singularity of a long memory process

Abstract.  We consider the estimation of the location of the pole and memory parameter ω ₀ and d of a covariance stationary process with spectral density
We investigate optimal rates of convergence for the estimators of ω ₀ and d , and the consequence that the lack of knowledge of ω ₀ has on the estimation of the memory parameter d . We present estimators which achieve the optimal rates. A small Monte-Carlo study is included to illustrate the finite sample performance of our estimators.     

Properties of the Sieve Bootstrap for Fractionally Integrated and Non‐Invertible Processes

Abstract. In this article, we investigate the consequences of applying the sieve bootstrap under regularity conditions that are sufficiently general to encompass both fractionally integrated and non‐invertible processes. The sieve bootstrap is obtained by approximating the data‐generating process by an autoregression, whose order h increases with the sample size T. The sieve bootstrap may be particularly useful in the analysis of fractionally integrated processes since the statistics of interest can often be non‐pivotal with distributions that depend on the fractional index d. The validity of the sieve bootstrap is established for |d|<1/2 and it is shown that when the sieve bootstrap is used to approximate the distribution of a general class of statistics then the error rate will be of an order smaller than , β>0. Practical implementation of the sieve bootstrap is considered and the results are illustrated using a canonical example.     

On the properties of the periodogram of a stationary long‐memory process over different epochs with applications

This article studies the asymptotic properties of the discrete Fourier transforms (DFT) and the periodogram of a stationary long‐memory time series over different epochs. The main theoretical result is a novel bound for the covariance of the DFT ordinates evaluated on two distinct epochs, which depends explicitly on the Fourier frequencies and the gap between the epochs. This result is then applied to obtain the limiting distribution of some nonlinear functions of the periodogram over different epochs, under the additional assumption of gaussianity. We then apply this result to construct an estimator of the memory parameter based on the regression in a neighbourhood of the zero‐frequency of the logarithm of the averaged periodogram, obtained by computing the empirical mean of the periodogram over adjacent epochs. It is shown that replacing the periodogram by its average has an effect similar to the frequency domain pooling to reduce the variance of the estimate. We also propose a simple procedure to test the stationarity of the memory coefficient. A limited Monte Carlo experiment is presented to support our findings.     

Relative entropy and spectral constraints: some invariance properties of the ARMA class

Abstract. We determine the form of spectral densities of multidimensional scalar processes which minimize a relative entropy under a finite number of general moment‐type constraints. The obtained theoretical results are applied to spectral densities of weakly stationary processes under covariances, inverse covariances and cepstral or impulse response constraints. Invariance properties of the class of autoregressive moving‐average (ARMA) processes are shown to hold under the relative entropy minimization principle for many choices of entropy.     

Local Whittle estimation of the memory parameter in presence of deterministic components

We discuss the estimation of the order of integration of a fractional process that may be contaminated by a time‐varying deterministic trend or by a break in the mean. We show that in some cases the estimate may still be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed even when the order of magnitude of the spectral density of the fractional process does not dominate the one of the periodogram of the contaminating term. If trimming is introduced, stronger deterministic components may be neglected. The performance of the estimate in small samples is studied in a Monte Carlo experiment.     

Tests for the Equality of Two Processes' Spectral Densities with Unequal Lengths Using Wavelet Methods

Testing procedures for assessing whether two stationary and independent linear processes with unequal lengths have the same spectral densities or same auto‐covariance functions are investigated. New test statistics are proposed based on the difference of the two wavelet‐based estimates of the two spectral densities. The asymptotic normal distributions of the empirical wavelet coefficients are derived based on Bartlett type approximation of a quadratic form with dependent variables by the corresponding quadratic form with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables. The limit distributions of the proposed test statistics are derived from those asymptotic results, and they asymptotically follow known chi‐square distributions. The advantage of those new procedures is that those test statistics are constructed very simply and can be used for two time series with arbitrary lengths. The performance of those new tests is compared with some recent test statistics, with respect to their exact levels and powers. Simulation studies show that our proposed tests are very comparable to the current tests.