Modelling internal migration in Kenya: an econometric analysis with limited data

"In this paper the determinants of internal migration in Kenya are analyzed on the basis of a human capital model. Explanatory variables included in the specification are both economic (wage rates and employment rates) and noneconomic (for example, population density and educational attainment). Also incorporated are variables which reflect intervening opportunities.... The econometric results show that destination variables are important determinants of internal migration, as is distance between the districts. Further, the variables for the intervening opportunities add significantly to the explanatory power of the model."     

Mobility,education and labor market outcomes for U.S. graduates: Is selectivity important?

The literature on human capital, and its positive effects on individuals and regional economies, is now vast. The linkages between human capital and migration have also found a fertile ground in recent years especially in Europe where many studies have focused on interregional migration of graduates and highly skilled individuals. However, the literature on this phenomenon in the USA is less developed. Using the SESTAT database from NSF, this paper aims at contributing to the understanding of inter-state migration behavior of graduates in the USA and its effects on their career outcomes. It builds on the existing literature not only by focusing specifically on the US context, but also incorporating into the empirical model a correction for the possible selection bias that arises from the dual relationship between migration propensity and human capital endowment. Our estimated Mincerian earning equations, corrected for migrant self-selectivity, show that indeed repeat migration is associated with higher average salaries, while late migration is associated with a salary penalty. As for the other control variables, our results are consistent with what has been found in the labor economics literature. Female workers suffer from a salary penalty, while experience, level of education and employer size are all associated with higher average salaries. The labor market also rewards different fields of study differently.     

Human capital and wages: a comparison of Albanian and Italian immigrants

This paper identifies the factors influencing earnings gaps between migrants belonging to old immigrant groups (defined as those with long established migration linkages with the receiving country) and those belonging to new immigrant groups. Earnings are conceptualized as a function of human capital, decomposed into the portion acquired in the home country and the portion acquired in the receiving country. It is hypothesized that poor transferability of human capital acquired at home dampens wages more for new than for old immigrant groups. Further, it is hypothesized that upon arrival in the destination, new immigrant groups accumulate human capital faster than old immigrant groups. The empirical analysis focuses on Albanians in the United States as a representative of a new immigrant group and Italians as a representative of an old immigrant group. The analysis is based on pooled data from the 2000 US Census 5 % sample, and the 2001–2007 American Community Survey (ACS) 3 % sample. Findings suggest that (1) Albanian immigrants earn substantially less than Italian immigrants; (2) human capital acquired at home has a positive impact on wages, but the level of human capital transferability is low for Albanians; (3) upon arrival, both Italian and Albanian immigrants accumulate human capital, but the speed of human capital accumulation is faster for Albanians than for Italians.     

Do states optimize? Public capital and economic growth

This paper develops a non-linear theoretical relationship between public capital and economic growth in order to obtain estimates of the growth-maximizing ratio of public capital to private capital. The model is empirically implemented using data on the 48 contiguous U.S. states over the period 1970 to 1990. The empirical results provide evidence that (i) the relationship between public capital and economic growth is non-linear, (ii) the growth-maximizing public capital stock is approximately 60% to 80% as large as the private (tangible) capital stock, and (iii) permanent changes in public capital are associated with permanent changes in economic growth. Received: October 1998 / Accepted: June 1999     

On the relation between origin income and migration

While traditional migration theory suggests that the rate of migration is negatively related to income at the origin, many empirical studies of aggregate migration yield a non-significant or even a positive relation. This paper utilizes a simplified model of migration to demonstrate that one possible reason for such results is the imperfect capital market facing migrants. Higher average income at the origin may imply a higher number of individuals who have the cash resources to finance migration, thus generating a positive relation between regional income and migration. The conclusions suggest the use of non-linear specifications in empirical migration studies.The views expressed in this paper are the author's; they do not represent those of the World Bank or its affiliated institutions.     

Regional economic convergence: Do policy instruments make a difference?

The relationship between public capital, regional output and private sector productivity has been an issue of considerable interest in the regional development literature. There have however been few studies that develop linkages between these issues and the broader literature on economic convergence. This paper presents an innovative methodology to examine the process of regional economic convergence across U.S. states. We examine the effects of economic variables such as human and public capital in the convergence process, and control for business cycle and region specific effects in the analysis. Further, specification problems arising from spatial dependence are also addressed. Results from the empirical analysis show that the speed of convergence is influenced by region specific characteristics and the availability of trained labor in neighboring regions. Received: November 1998/Accepted: March 2000     

Does religious affiliation affect migration?

We test whether social networks at the origin, measured by religious affiliation, affect out‐migration. The basic idea is that a social capital loss is attached to the decision to out‐migrate, and said loss increases migration costs because benefits received from the local network at the origin disappear. To test this hypothesis, we estimated conditional and mixed logit models for the decision to out‐migrate. The results supported the hypothesis: members from religious organizations with strong intra‐community and weak intercommunity ties tended to out‐migrate less than others. This result was highly significant and robust to model specification and estimation methods.     

Factors influencing unemployment duration with a special emphasis on migration: An investigation using SIPP data and event history methods

The length of time that individuals are unemployed has considerable political and policy significance. Important questions about the factors influencing the duration of unemployment remain to be answered. The purpose of this paper is to carry out an empirical investigation of the factors that cause unemployment to be of a longer or shorter duration. Such factors are identified within a micro-economic framework drawn from human capital and job search theories. Event history methods and panel data are used to model unemployment duration. The data come from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) which contains weekly information on labor force status over about a two and a half year period, as well as data on a number of individual and locational attributes. Evidence from the empirical investigation suggests that migration, temporary layoff and income during unemployment combine with individual characteristics to influence the duration of unemployment spells.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 38th North American Meetings of the RSAI, New Orleans, LA, November 1991.     

Growth and disparities in Europe: Insights from a spatial growth model*

This paper provides a spatial neoclassical growth model for a system of N regional economies. Regional output growth is determined by interregional fixed capital relocations which depend on initial factor endowments as well as a region's relative location in space. The dynamics of the model are captured by a Taylor approximation, which provides a testable spatial econometric model specification that is applied for European regions on the NUTS 2 level. Both theoretical and empirical results show how relatively high human capital endowments are beneficial to growth if found within one region, but disadvantageous if found in neighbouring regions. Este artículo proporciona un modelo de crecimiento neo‐clásico espacial para un sistema de N economías regionales. El crecimiento del producto regional viene determinado por deslocalizaciones interregionales de capital fijo que dependen de la dotación de factores inicial, así como de la relativa localización espacial de una región. Las dinámicas del modelo son capturadas mediante una aproximación de Taylor, que proporciona una especificación comprobable de modelo econométrico espacial que se aplica a regiones europeas a nivel NUTS 2. Tanto los resultados teoréticos como los empíricos muestran como las dotaciones relativamente elevadas de capital humano son ventajosas para el crecimiento cuando se concentran en una región, pero una desventaja si se encuentran en regiones vecinas.      

A spatial Mankiw–Romer–Weil model: theory and evidence

This paper presents a theoretical growth model that extends the Mankiw–Romer–Weil (MRW) model by accounting for technological interdependence among regional economies. Interdependence is assumed to work through spatial externalities caused by disembodied knowledge diffusion. The transition from theory to econometrics leads to a reduced-form empirical spatial Durbin model specification that explains the variation in regional levels of per worker output at steady state. A system of 198 regions across 22 European countries over the period from 1995 to 2004 is used to empirically test the model. Testing is performed by assessing the importance of cross-region technological interdependence and measuring direct and indirect (spillover) effects of the MRW determinants on regional output.     

RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION AND SELF-SELECTION IN TUNISIA

This article presents a model of returns to rural-urban migration accounting for self-selection of migrants using survey data from Tunisia. Of particular interest in this research is the sign and significance of the selectivity terms in the mover and the stayer group. The model focuses on the importance of human capital investment incentives and personal characteristics. This article is organized as follows. Section 2 presents the Tunisian context. Section 3 describes a simple model of migrant behavior in which the decision to migrate, viewed in the context of investment in human capital, results as the solution to an optimal control problem. Section 4 provides details of a simultaneous equation model, which incorporates the decision to migrate, returns to migration, and self-selection. The results of the research lead to the conclusion that by purely statistical assessment the expected monetary gain effect is significantly different from zero. Although by economic considerations, it is small. This low effect is a result of the omission of other relevant variables from the analysis of rural-urban migration in Tunisia. In the migration-earning equations the selectivity variable is not significant, whereas there is a strong evidence of positive self-selection in the earnings of nonmigrants.     

Describing migration spatial structure

The age structure of a population is a fundamental concept in demography and is generally depicted in the form of an age pyramid. The spatial structure of an interregional system of origin-destination-specific migration streams is, however, a notion lacking a widely accepted definition. We offer a definition in this article, one that draws on the log-linear specification of the geographer's spatial interaction model. We illustrate our definition with observed migration data, we discuss extensions and special cases, and proceed to contrast our definition and associated empirical findings against another measure having an alternative definition. Received: 11 October 2000 / Accepted: 3 April 2001     

Accounting for spatial relationships in models of interstate population migration

This study focuses on the specification of distance and space in models of state-to-state population migration. Typically, space is captured by one or two simple variables that do not adequately model the spatial relationship between states. These are particularly poor measures for states with a common border, especially those with a metropolitan area located near the border. Four models of interstate population migration are developed, with increasingly complex specifications of space. The models are estimated using 1975 to 1980 migration data for the 48 contiguous states of the United States. Common borders and bordering metropolitan areas do influence interstate population flows. Models lacking a more detailed specification of space will lose explanatory power and suffer from biases.     

Lose to win: entrepreneurship of returned migrants in China

This paper explores the relationship between rural to urban migration and entrepreneurship in China. We compare entrepreneurship between return migrants who used to work in a province other than their home province and migrants whose work experience is limited to within their home province. Migrants who leave their home province lose rooted social networks and immediate support from relatives and friends, but might gain new social networks, human capital and financial capital, which eventually enable them to enter entrepreneurship more easily. The factors tested for their association with entrepreneurship include a range of individual characteristics, human and social capital, financial capital, city fixed effects and industry fixed effects. Significant heterogeneous patterns across regions suggest the active eastern market is more conducive to entrepreneurship than the sluggish western market. Return migrants in the East accumulated more human capital and social capital, have more self-financed fund and are more likely to start a business at the same time.     

E-urbanism: E-commerce,migration, and the transformation of Taobao villages in urban China

The development of information and communications technology (ICT) has promoted the rapid growth of e-commerce, which has gradually changed the city. Networking and migration are also key driving forces for contemporary urban development. Although a growing body of literature has studied e-commerce development, there is a lack of theoretical and empirical research to understand the impact of e-commerce and migration on urbanism. This study is an attempt to fill the gap. It firstly proposes a concept framework of E-urbanism that includes three interwoven layers, namely of ICT infrastructure and production networks, social networks and power relations, and urban form and land use. The framework is then applied to understand the influence of e-commerce and migration on the socio-spatial transformation of Taobao villages in Guangzhou city, China. This article concludes that ICT infrastructure and production networks form the foundation of e-commerce development, while social networks of rural migrants are important sources of social capital in the formation of Taobao villages. The existing physical forms provide opportunities for e-commerce growth, which has in turn reshaped them. E-commerce is fundamentally revolutionizing urbanism, the intertwinement of social and spatial reorganization of the city.     

The role of age in the decision to migrate

The consistent negative relationship between migration frequency and age is consistently verified by empirical data, but theoretical explanations have been lacking. The purpose of this paper is to articulate a formal theoretical model that predicts this relationship. The model is not intended to completely describe the migration process but focuses only on the fundamentals of the decision. The argument can be summarized as follows: because work-life expectancy is a declining function of age of family head, the older individual has a shorter time period to capture a positive utility differential at an alternative location. This implies that the present value of the utility differential stream will also fall with age. As it is probable that moving costs are either constant or an increasing function of age, the probability that the present value of the utility stream will exceed moving costs will also decline. Thus, the migration rate, implicitly defined as the probability of migrating multiplied by the number of people in a given age cohort, will vary inversely with age.     

Single-place alternative opportunities in an economic model of migration

Inspired by Samuel Stouffer's work on alternative opportunities in the gravity model of migration, Levy and Wadycki developed a specification for incorporating this concept in an economic model of migration. Subsequent testing has confirmed the statistical relevance of the alternative opportunity concept across a number of countries and time periods.The present paper refines the definition of alternative opportunities so that the best alternative variables all come from the same location. In the original formulation, the best alternative variable is the optimum value within a circle determined by the origin and destination points. That formulation permits different locations to provide the best alternatives for the economic variables in the model. The single-place approach of the present paper is more consistent with the migrant's utility calculus which determines a single best alternative location. Using United States data for two time periods, we find that the empirical results support this new formulation.Research for this paper was supported by a University of Illinois Sabbatical Leave and by the services of the University of Illinois at Chicago Computer Center.     

The regional effects of international migration on internal migration decisions of tertiary-educated workers

This study is a departure from the classic analysis of the effect of international migration on human capital. Using original data from a nationally representative survey in Moldova, we employ discrete choice and count-data models to evaluate the effect of international migration on the likelihood that “left-behind” household members with tertiary education migrate domestically. Thus, we propose an original framework of identifying a causal relationship between international and internal migration. The main findings support the hypothesis that international migration leads to an increase in the preference for urban jobs of tertiary-educated left-behind household members with peripheral rural origins.     

Human capital and market size

This paper studies how the size of the labour market affects workers' decisions to invest in human capital. We consider a model of mismatch where firms rank workers according to their level of skills. The matching process operating in the market has the property that the job finding probability of workers depends on market size, market tightness and their ranking. The model is consistent with several facts highlighted in empirical studies: in bigger markets the distribution of human capital is more unequal and the returns to skill are higher.