大用户直购电环境下电网公司的风险管理

电力市场环境下的直购电导致了电网公司风险,从政策风险、运营风险、运行风险3个角度分析了直购电所引起电网公司的风险类型,表明了各种风险是相互关联而存在的,在此基础上论述了相应的风险管理办法,指出通过有效的风险评估办法可以判断其交易策略是否在可接受范围内,从而在规避风险的同时帮助电网公司达到期望利润,最后确立了考虑直购电的电网公司风险管理阶段框图     

多市场分时段下电网公司购售电风险控制优化模型

针对发电侧竞价上网、售电侧价格管制导致中国电网公司的收益空间存在不确定性的问题,为进行电网公司购售电风险控制优化,引入用户需求弹性,采用效用函数方法,建立了电网公司购售电风险控制优化模型,分析了电力公司在合约市场和实时市场购电量优化分配。结果表明,电网公司的风险偏好程度决定了购电量的分配;峰谷分时电价的电价差率和用户需求弹性均影响电网公司的购售电风险;实施峰谷分时电价有利于系统削峰填谷,尤其是在缺电的情况下可以减少电网公司经济损失以降低经营风险。     

直购电模式下市场主体收益建模与博弈分析

以我国大用户直购电试点现行的转运定价机制为基础，结合区域电力市场的运营现状，建立发电商、大用户和电网公司在直购电模式下的收益模型，并对各市场主体之间的利益博弈行为进行分析，找出达成直购电交易的必要条件，最后结合算例得出结论。     

基于均值-CVaR-熵的大用户购电组合优化模型研究

摘要： 大用户直购电是电力大用户与发电公司直接交易的一种购电模式。在大用户从日前现货市场、直购电合约市场、电力期权市场和企业自建电厂购电的背景下,考虑到风险包括损失的大小和不确定性等因素,引入熵和CVaR作为大用户购电风险的测度因子,构建大用户在上述市场中的购电组合优化模型,并采用混沌粒子群算法求解。算例结果表明,模型在预期购电成本约束下在不同市场购电比例分配优化和风险控制上的可行性,为大用户在多市场环境下的购电决策提供参考。     

大用户直购电模式对电网企业的影响

大用户直购电在我国已试点多年,但各界却一直对其存在争论。根据目前大用户直购电试点情况,从电网企业效益、电网建设投资、电力电量平衡、电力资源配置等几方面深入剖析了大用户直购电模式对电网企业可能的影响,并结合实际,从制定输配电价、明确相关补贴、过网费收取等六个方面提出了较为详细可行的建议。为电网企业应对解决大用户直购电过程中的有关问题提供了借鉴和参考。     

基于智能体的大用户直购电交易研究

电力体制改革9号文的发布确立了深化电力体制改革的总体思路和基本原则,明确了推进电力体制改革的重点任务,强调了继续推进大用户直购电交易,拓展交易范围和比重。大用户直购电经过多年试点和推行,取得了显著成效,对于大用户直购电问题的研究也积累了一定成果。随着市场参与主体的增多,主体间交互关系愈加复杂,市场信息更迭加快,大用户直购电问题的研究需要更加丰富和灵活的建模技术。本文基于智能体(Agent)技术,设计了大用户Agent、发电商Agent、电网Agent,建立了大用户直购电模型;通过算例验证了模型的有效性,并分析了影响大用户直购电交易的主要因素;结合分析结果针对当前大用户直购电开展情况提出了相关政策建议。     

电改背景下的电网公司投资风险评价与应对策略

投资业务是电网公司的关键业务环节。新电改提出“三放开、三加强、一独立”的总体思路为电网公司投资活动带来了新的风险。首先分析了电改背景下电网公司投资面临的新风险,其次建立了电网公司投资风险的AHP-Fuzzy评价模型,并以某地市级电网公司为例,评价其2019年投资计划的风险水平,最后对电改背景下电网公司投资风险的应对策略提出了相关建议。评价结果表明该电网公司2019年的投资风险处于较低水平,可按计划进行投资,但仍需重点关注电网发展协调性、投资收益等风险。     

峰谷电价下新能源省际购电优化模型

随着新能源发电快速发展,新能源电力的消纳问题日益凸显。售电侧实施峰谷电价能激发需求侧调峰潜力,增大省级电网接纳新能源的能力,推动省际新能源购售电交易。考虑省级电网调峰、备用等约束,建立了峰谷电价下省级电网公司参与省际新能源购电效益最大化模型,并通过量子粒子群算法求解。算例表明,制定合理的外购电计划,不仅能够减少省外能源基地的弃风,以清洁的风电置换高耗能火电,获取节能减排效益,还有利于降低省级电网的购电费用,增大购电效益。通过比较多种购电方案及省外风电不同报价对省际交易的影响,证明了所提模型的有效性。     

基于抽水蓄能电站并网的电网购电优化模型研究

以湖南省黑麋峰电站为例,基于电网公司购电决策原则,结合不同经营模式下新投抽水蓄能电站的具体经营特点,构建了不同模式抽水蓄能电站并网运行的电网购电优化决策模型.实例分析蛄果表明,该模型有效、可行,对电网购电行为决策的制定具有实践价值.     

大用户直购电市场风险评估设计及政策影响分析

从市场组织者与社会公正的角度,识别大用户直购电的市场风险,提出具体评估指标,建立完整评估体系。考虑政策因素的影响,对某省直购电试点进行具体的风险评估分析,其分析结果可为相关机构量化直购电风险以及制定直购电相关政策提供参考。     

Dynamic Modelling of the DEP Controlled Boiling in a Microchannel

The paper presents theoretical analysis of flow dynamics in a heated microchannel in which flow rate may be controlled by dielectrophoretic (DEP) forces. Proposed model equations were derived in terms of lumped parameters characterising the system comprising of DEP controller and the microchannel. In result, an equation for liquid height of rise in the controller was obtained from momentum balances in the two elements of the considered system. In the model, the boiling process in the heated section of microchannel is taken into account through a pressure drop, which is a function of flow rate and uniform heat flux. Presented calculation results show that the DEP forces influence mainly the flow rate in the microchannel. In this way, by proper modulation of voltage applied to the DEP controller, it is possible to lower the frequency of Ledinegg instabilities.     

无水丙二醇冷却液对柴油机性能影响的试验

基于AVL台架搭建柴油机性能测试系统,进行乙二醇(EGC)冷却液、无水丙二醇(PGC)冷却液的试验研究.结果表明:当台架冷却水箱循环温度设定为80℃时,柴油机使用PGC冷却液比使用EGC冷却液的出口温度有所降低,润滑油温度平均上升5℃左右;当台架冷却水箱循环温度设定为95℃时,使用PGC冷却液的出口温度和润滑油温度与使...     

Decentralized energy planning; modeling and application—a review

Energy planning is carried out at a centralized level using computer-based modeling. The centralized energy planning models and approaches have already been reviewed in literature. Decentralized energy planning (DEP) is a concept of recent origin with limited applications. Literature shows that different models are being developed and used worldwide. This paper gives an overview of different decentralized energy models used worldwide, their approaches and their applications along with a few emerging energy models. The central theme of the energy planning at decentralized level would be to prepare an area-based DEP to meet energy needs and development of alternate energy sources at least-cost to the economy and environment. Ecologically sound development of the region is possible when energy needs are integrated with the environmental concerns at the local and global levels. Taking into account these features, this paper explains the need of DEP and shows how different types of energy planning and optimization models, supply demand models, regional models, resource models and neural models have been carried, adopted and applied at decentralized level.     

Determinants of import demand for non-renewable energy (petroleum) products: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

This study estimated determinants of import demand for refined petroleum products in Nigeria for the period 1984–2013. It employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test cointegration method and analysed both long-run and short-run determinants of import demand for total and specific petroleum products.In the long-run, aggregate and sectoral incomes are significant determinants of import of refined kerosene. Further, real effective exchange rate (REER), aggregate income (GDP), manufacturing sector's income, domestic energy production (DEP) and population growth rate (PGR) are drivers of import of refined motor spirit Moreover, REER, DEP and manufacturing sector's income are propellers of import of refined distillate fuel. Also, REER and total output of petroleum products are major drivers of total import of refined petroleum products.Short-run results show that previous period GDP, PGR and manufacturing and service sectors' incomes are determinants of import demand for refined kerosene. Moreover, REER, GDP, previous PGR and manufacturing sector's income exert significant effects on the import of refined motor spirit. Further, significant effects of REER, DEP, previous PGR, domestic output of the product and manufacturing and service sectors' incomes on the import demand for distillate fuel were found.Policy implications of the foregoing are articulated in the paper.     

Forecasting risks of natural gas consumption in Slovenia

Efficient operation of modern energy distribution systems often requires forecasting future energy demand. This paper proposes a strategy to estimate forecasting risk. The objective of the proposed method is to improve knowledge about expected forecasting risk and to estimate the expected cash flow in advance, based on the risk model. The strategy combines an energy demand forecasting model, an economic incentive model and a risk model. Basic guidelines are given for the construction of a forecasting model that combines past energy consumption data, weather data and weather forecast. The forecasting model is required to estimate expected forecasting errors that are the basis for forecasting risk estimation. The risk estimation strategy also requires an economic incentive model that describes the influence of forecasting accuracy on the energy distribution systems’ cash flow. The economic model defines the critical forecasting error levels that most strongly influence cash flow. Based on the forecasting model and the economic model, the development of a risk model is proposed. The risk model is associated with critical forecasting error levels in the context of various influential parameters such as seasonal data, month, day of the week and temperature. The risk model is applicable to estimating the daily forecasting risk based on the influential parameters. The proposed approach is illustrated by a case study of a Slovenian natural gas distribution company.     

改进的风险矩阵法在电力系统结构与电力设备设施综合风险评价中的应用

针对传统风险矩阵法等级划分不精细和烈度与概率异质性的缺陷,引入模糊逻辑,构建了模糊风险矩阵图,提出灵敏度分析理论。将改进的风险矩阵法与层次分析法相结合确定不同风险的权重,计算出综合风险值,对应综合风险等级标准即可提出相应措施,并以四川省电力系统为例,探讨了该方法在电力系统风险评估中的应用。结果表明,改进的风险矩阵法有效解决了风险结问题,提高了模型的精确度。     

营配调末端融合的供电综合风险预警模型

当前供电营配末端相互独立、关联度偏低,导致其综合风险预警效果较差,为此构建一种新的供电综合风险预警模型。选取供电风险预警指标,并对其进行标准化处理。计算指标间的灰度关联度,并对其进行排序,获取供电风险事件的标量时间序列,求得风险预警的最大梯度差,根据关联指向性特征得到风险预警评估的判决式,以此构建供电风险预警模型。实验结果表明,利用该模型进行供电综合风险预警,预警结果更接近实际结果。     

基于VAR模型的远期合同定金的定价方法

为规避电力市场改革给市场带来的风险、提高市场的运作效率、增大电力商品的交易量，提出了发电商与电网公司之间一种带定金的远期合同模型。介绍了VAR风险评估方法及其分析法——Delta类模型在电力市场金融风险评估中的应用；运用VAR风险评估方法计算出该模型中发电商存在的风险，进而确定合同定金。应用该模型对不同的合同电价和置信水平分别计算出相应的定金，结果表明，合同定金随合同电价的减小而减小，随置信水平的增大而增大，说明了该模型能较真实地反映发电商所面临市场风险的本质特征。