Migration decision making and migration behavior in rural Kenya

Micro theories of migration have generally been tested with data which do not allow one to distinguish between the decision to move and the act of moving. The latter is usually treated as a proxy for the former. Using data from a two round survey of youth in rural Kenya we classify respondents as decision processors/nondecision processors from round one data, and determine who migrates over a nine month interval from round two data. Thirty-four percent of the sample are classified as decision processors and 25% as migrants, but decision processors were only slightly more likely to migrate than nondecision processors and more migrants actually came from the latter group.A simple model is developed to determine the extent to which the same factors that influence decision-processing influence who migrates. The model is tested using regression procedures by first treating decision-processing as the dependent variable then migration. The model explains 26% of the variance in who decides, but only 10% of the variance in who actually moved. Finally, separate analyses are done of the determinants of migration for decision processors and nondecision processors.     

Migration intentions and behavior: Decision making in a rural Philippine province

The relationship between intentions and behavior is basic to micro-level migration decision research. This study, set in the rural Philippine province of Ilocos Norte, provides evidence on personal and structural background factors and value-expectancy perceptions of place utility that predict migration intentions and behavior. Separate analyses are conducted for general intentions to move and for destination-specific migration intentions, the latter pertaining to both internal migration (Manila) and international migration (Hawaii). Logistic regression analyses applied to the data from a 1980–82 longitudinal survey show that the empirical models are highly efficient in explaining migration intentions but less efficient in explaining actual migration behavior in this Third World setting. Important explanatory variables for both intentions and behavior include family pressure to move or stay, family auspices at alternative destinations, money to move, prior migration experience, and the life cycle stage (marital status and age). However, the determinants of internal and international migration behavior are not the same. The data only partially support the Ajzen and Fishbein (1980) position that intentions are the dominant determinant of behavior. Personal and structural background factors are shown to exert independent direct effects on migration behavior.Revised version of a paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Minneapolis, Minnesota, May 2–5, 1984. Research for this paper was supported by NIH Grant No. R01-HD13115, the Population Center Foundation, The Philippines, the East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, Hawaii, and the Population Issues Research Center, University Park, PA. The other coinvestigators for this project are Fred Arnold, East-West Population Institute, and Benjamin V. Carino, University of the Philippines.     

Contribution of forest provisioning ecosystem services to rural livelihoods in the Miombo woodlands of Zambia

This paper examines the contribution of forest provisioning ecosystem services (FPES) to rural households and assesses the contributions of forests to the annual incomes of households in Africa’s Miombo woodlands. The study employed focus group meetings, in-depth interviews, and interviews of households, as stratified by wealth class and head of household gender in Copperbelt, Zambia. The results show that FPES are vitally important in providing food, medicine, fodder, and construction materials to rural livelihoods. FPES provided 43.9 % of the average household’s income and contributed a 10 % income equalisation effect among households, as revealed by the Gini-coefficient analysis. Poorer households received a lower mean annual income from forests than did their intermediate and wealthy counterparts, but in relative terms, forest income made the greatest contribution to the total household incomes of poor households. When stratified by gender, forests contributed 44.4 and 41.8 % of the income of male- and female-headed households, respectively. The study indicates that wealth, rather than gender, was the key determinant of a household’s engagement in the sale of FPES. The inter- and intra-community differentiation in the use and sale of FPES, as revealed in this study, enables more effective targeting of forest management interventions and informs efforts to reconcile the goals of poverty reduction and forest conservation.     

Quality, accessibility, and contraceptive use in rural tanzania

We examine how informants' reports on community perceptions of the quality and accessibility of family planning facilities relate to the use of modern contraceptives by individuals in rural Tanzania. Using information on individual-level contraceptive use in conjunction with community-level information on the accessibility and quality of family planning facilities, we employ two distinct statistical procedures to illustrate the impacts of accessibility and quality on contraceptive use. Both procedures treat the community-level variables as imperfect indicators of characteristics of the facilities, and they yield nearly identical implications. We find that a community-level, subjective perception of a family planning facility's quality has a significant impact on community members' contraceptive use whereas other community measures such as time, distance, and subjective perception of accessibility have trivial and insignificant direct impacts, net of the control variables. Future research that uncovers the determinants of perceptions of both community-level and individual-level quality could provide key insights for developing effective and efficient family planning programs.     

A multilevel model of family planning availability and contraceptive use in rural Thailand

This paper assesses the ways in which the availability of family planning program outlets influences the likelihood of contraceptive use in rural Thailand. It focuses on a village-level measure of actual availability of sources rather than respondent perceptions of availability. Individuallevel and village-level data collected as part of the second Thailand Contraceptive Prevalence Survey are used to test three hypotheses about the effects of actual availability: that (a) availability of family planning outlets increases the likelihood of contraceptive use; (b) it enhances the effect of a desire for no more children on the likelihood of use; and (c) it weakens the positive relationship between education and the likelihood of use.     

Child schooling and contraceptive use in rural Africa: A Ghanaian case study

In this study, I examine the contributions of childrens schooling to fertility decline in Africa. I use cross-sectional data collected in the late 1980s to look at how household child schooling patterns and community access to schools affect contraceptive use among rural Ghanaian women. My results indicate that the schooling of children is associated very strongly with increased use of modern and traditional contraceptive use and thereby suggest that educational policy has played a role in initiating and sustaining fertility decline in Ghana and possibly elsewhere in Africa.     

Migration in market and democracy transition: Migration intentions and behavior in Romania

This paper analyzes the determinants of migration decision-making in the context of recent market and democratic transition in Romania. Using early 1990s internal migration survey, census and population register data, the results from Lisrel path models show that market and democracy value orientation variables are significant determinants of intentions to move, controlling for individual and regional social structural and resource indicators. Similarly, district-level out-migration behavior is directly determined by the political profile of the local area. Results from the total and disaggregated rural and urban models are interpreted through a reform values and characteristics typology of migrants. At least in the early stages of Romanian transition, the results indicate that migration choice behavior is governed by a search for places with greatest opportunities in terms of market and democracy returns. Implications of the results for political system and public policy decision are discussed.     

城乡劳动力流动与迁移回报率

本文从微观主体人力资本投资的角度来理解中国农村劳动力流动现象。提出应该将迁移作为一种投资方式单独进行考察。通过讨论迁移的预期成本和收益,发现与教育投资相比,迁移能得到较高的回报率,迁移回报率是吸引农村劳动力选择迁移流动到城市的重要因素。由此得出结论：农村劳动力向城市的迁移是一种理性选择的人力资本投资方式。要改变中国二十年来农村劳动力以低教育水平、低收入水平为特征的循环流动。必须尽快改善农村的人力资本投资环境。特别是教育环境．     

Migration and fertility in Ticino

Summary Migration in the Swiss canton of Ticino is one example of the wide variety of demographic systems that existed in pre-industrial Europe. The continuous movement of men was a consequence of economic, social and geographic conditions which restricted the demand for labour. Seasonal migration and overseas migration were both sex and age selective. They resulted in an imbalance of the sex ratio and a remarkably low female nuptiality. They also reduced fertility within marriage by separating husbands and wives during their childbearing years. The effect of long, medium and short-term migration on fertility can be isolated from census and vital registration sources.     

中国人口的迁移转变——基于迁移率的考察

经典人口转变理论侧重死亡和生育转变过程的测量、描述和解释,地理学家将迁移转变纳入人口转变框架,以完善人口转变理论。不过与死亡和生育转变研究不同,中国的迁移研究侧重基于对迁移流动人口规模和结构的考察分析,少有采用人口学意义上的迁移率指标的研究。文章利用2010—2015年历次中国综合社会调查的合并数据,通过人口学方法和泊松回归模型,计算和分析了1950—2015年中国人口迁移率趋势及社会经济差异。中国的迁移转变在宏观趋势上与中国的政治经济变迁高度一致。与死亡和生育转变相比,其波折性更强,说明更易受到经济社会政策变化的冲击。同时也观察到逢“0”和逢“5”年份的申报偏好。另外,迁移的社会经济差异明显。男性迁移率高于女性,但是两性差异在不断缩小;乡城迁移和未婚迁移大幅度增长;而越来越多受教育程度较高人群加入迁移,使得受教育程度越高的人群具有越高的迁移率。可以认为基于迁移率的考察揭示了中国迁移转变更具体生动的过程。     

Migration and Intergenerational Replacement in Europe

There are long‐standing concerns over low fertility levels in Europe and an increasingly important debate on the extent to which migration can compensate for below‐replacement fertility. To inform this debate, a wide array of indicators have been developed to assess the joint influence of fertility, mortality, and migration on birth replacement and intergenerational replacement. These indicators are based on various models and assumptions and some are particularly data demanding. In this article we propose a simple method to assess how far migration alters the extent of replacement for a birth cohort as it ages. We term the measure the overall replacement ratio (ORR). It is calculated by taking the size of a female birth cohort at selected ages divided by the average size of the cohorts of mothers in the year of birth. We present estimates of the ORR for a range of European countries representing different replacement regimes. We demonstrate that for many countries net migration has become a key factor in their population trends during the last few decades.     

Social networks and changes in contraceptive use over time: evidence from a longitudinal study in rural Kenya

The impacts of social networks on changes in contraception in rural Kenya are investigated using special data from a longitudinal household survey. An analytic model, informed by detailed knowledge of the setting, yielded estimates that indicate that (1) social networks have substantial effects even after unobserved factors (e.g., homophily) that may determine social networks are controlled; (2) controlling for these unobserved factors may substantially alter the estimated effects of networks (these controls were not used in previous studies); (3) network effects are important for both men and women; and (4) network effects are nonlinear and asymmetric, suggesting that networks provide information primarily through social learning, rather than by exerting social influence.     

Migration and fertility in Puerto Rico

Abstract In an investigation based on special tabulations of the 25 per cent sample from the 1960 Census of Population for Puerto Rico, it is found that migration experience tends to be associated with fertility for various marital statuses, including consensual unions, and for rural, urban and metropolitan residence. The findings cannot be attributed to variations in age composition among the various categories as age standardization and age-specificcomparisons yield similar results. However, it is also found that rural-urban and consensually-legally mated differentials in fertility cannot be accounted for by variations in the migration variables that are examined. Thus, consistently higher fertility is found for non-migrants than for migrants; for consensually mated than for legally married and for rural than for urban or metropolitan residents. With a single exception, women in consensual unions, fertility is lower for women in the San Juan metropolitan area than in the other urban areas.     

流动人口家庭化迁居水平与迁居行为决策的影响因素研究

本研究对家庭化迁居水平、迁居方式选择的影响因素进行量化分析。研究发现:经济收入是影响家庭迁居决策的刚性因素。流动家庭向老家的汇款金额与举家迁居行为呈负向关系。移民网络提供的迁移信息因乡土秩序排序呈现强弱关系差异。家乡中拥有的住房、土地等实物资本具有保险机制,会降低举家迁居的可能性。人力资本禀赋与迁居决策呈较为特殊的非线性关系。较大的家庭规模、未成年子女数量的增加,会使家庭采取谨慎、缓慢的方式进行迁居。迁入地的社会融入情况良好时,有助于促进流动家庭在城市长期定居。     

Effects of the physical accessibility of maternal health services on their use in rural Haiti

An analysis of data from the 2000 Demographic and Health Survey shows that little use is made of antenatal and delivery-care services in rural Haiti. After adjusting for individual-level factors, poor road conditions significantly reduce the likelihood of timely receipt of antenatal care and of four or more antenatal care visits, while the availability of a health centre within 5 kilometres significantly increases the odds of each outcome. The odds of being attended at delivery by trained medical personnel and of institutional delivery are significantly reduced by mountainous terrain and distance from the nearest hospital, and are increased if a health worker providing antenatal care is present in the neighbourhood. Neighbourhood poverty reduces the likelihood of safe delivery care. The findings suggest that improving the use made of maternal healthcare services would require, among other things, improvement of the availability of services and road conditions, and the reduction of poverty.     

The use of the CES-D for measuring symptoms of depression in three rural Russian villages

This paper reports the use of a standardized depression scale (CES-D) in a sample survey of three Russian villages (N=263) in the summer of 1993. The analysis shows a good response rate on all items, except for two. The internal consistency of the scale is good (alpha reliability is 0.79), and the factor loadings are sensible and relatively high. There is a greater percentage of the respondents in rural Russia who showed symptoms of depression compared to the percentage of respondents who showed symptoms of depression in other studies. Greater levels of depression were found among respondents who were elderly, in poor health, who were women, divorced or separated, and had little social support.     

Effects of the physical accessibility of maternal health services on their use in rural Haiti

An analysis of data from the 2000 Demographic and Health Survey shows that little use is made of antenatal and delivery-care services in rural Haiti. After adjusting for individual-level factors, poor road conditions significantly reduce the likelihood of timely receipt of antenatal care and of four or more antenatal care visits, while the availability of a health centre within 5 kilometres significantly increases the odds of each outcome. The odds of being attended at delivery by trained medical personnel and of institutional delivery are significantly reduced by mountainous terrain and distance from the nearest hospital, and are increased if a health worker providing antenatal care is present in the neighbourhood. Neighbourhood poverty reduces the likelihood of safe delivery care. The findings suggest that improving the use made of maternal healthcare services would require, among other things, improvement of the availability of services and road conditions, and the reduction of poverty.     

中国人口终身迁移状况分析

“出生地”是用来收集人口迁移信息最常用的调查项目之一。中国以往的人口普查中一直缺少这一调查项目 ,这使得利用出生地资料对人口迁移状况进行分析在国内一直是个空白。中国第五次人口普查在中国人口普查史上首次调查了人口的出生地信息。本文主要根据第五次人口普查提供的出生地资料 ,对中国各省人口的终身迁移水平、流向以及不同年龄人口的终身迁移状况进行了初步分析。     

农村劳动者流动中的几个问题

在中国现有的研究和相关的政策建议中,流动常常都被看做是缓解乡村"剩余"人口(劳动者)压力的一种方法,也是实现现代化的一种主要手段。换句话说,乡村被看做中国现代化的主要障碍之一,它带来的更多是问题而不是解决问题的方法。作者提出,研究人员和决策者应该更多地考虑农村外出劳动者对于流出地发展所做的重要贡献。