利用Newmark方法进行地震滑坡制图——以映秀研究区为例

2008年汶川5.12地震触发了大量滑坡,这些滑坡所造成的损失甚至超过地震本身。在地震区映秀,获取了地震边坡稳定性分析所需的地震滑坡编目图、强震监测数据、1：50000地质图、岩组单元的物理力学数据及基于1：50000地形图得到的DEM数据,所有这些数据都通过GIS（ilwis3.6）进行了矢量化及栅格化（10m）处理。基于上述数据,利用Newmark方法对每个单元格的变形及位移进行计算分析,然后通过Newmark位移与地震滑坡编目图进行对比分析,建立边坡失稳概率与Newmark位移之间的关系,用于地震滑坡预测及编图,为地震应急及灾后重建提供科学依据。     

A seismic landslide susceptibility rating of geologic units based on analysis of characteristics of landslides triggered by the 17 January, 1994 Northridge, California earthquake

One of the most significant effects of the 17 January, 1994 Northridge, California earthquake (M=6.7) was the triggering of thousands of landslides over a broad area. Some of these landslides damaged and destroyed homes and other structures, blocked roads, disrupted pipelines, and caused other serious damage. Analysis of the distribution and characteristics of these landslides is important in understanding what areas may be susceptible to landsliding in future earthquakes. We analyzed the frequency, distribution, and geometries of triggered landslides in the Santa Susana 7.5′ quadrangle, an area of intense seismic landslide activity near the earthquake epicenter. Landslides occurred primarily in young (Late Miocene through Pleistocene) uncemented or very weakly cemented sediment that has been repeatedly folded, faulted, and uplifted in the past 1.5 million years. The most common types of landslide triggered by the earthquake were highly disrupted, shallow falls and slides of rock and debris. Far less numerous were deeper, more coherent slumps and block slides, primarily occurring in more cohesive or competent materials. The landslides in the Santa Susana quadrangle were divided into two samples: single landslides (1502) and landslide complexes (60), which involved multiple coalescing failures of surficial material. We described landslide morphologies by computing simple morphometric parameters (area, length, width, aspect ratio, slope angle). To quantify and rank the relative susceptibility of each geologic unit to seismic landsliding, we calculated two indices: (1) the susceptibility index, which is the ratio (given as a percentage) of the area covered by landslide sources within a geologic unit to the total outcrop area of that unit; and (2) the frequency index [given in landslides per square kilometer (ls/km²)], which is the total number of landslides within each geologic unit divided by the outcrop area of that unit. Susceptibility categories include very high (>2.5% landslide area or >30 ls/km²), high (1.0–2.5% landslide area or 10–30 ls/km²), moderate (0.5–1.0% landslide area or 3–10 ls/km²), and low (<0.5% landslide area and <3 ls/km²).     

2008年汶川地震滑坡详细编目及其空间分布规律分析

最新研究成果表明, 2008年5月12日汶川MS 8.0级地震触发了超过197000处滑坡。首先,基于GIS与遥感技术构建了汶川地震滑坡的3类编目图,分别为单体滑坡面分布数据、滑坡中心点位置和滑坡后壁点位置。构建方法为基于地震前后高分辨率遥感影像的目视解译方法,区分单体滑坡并圈定其边界,对滑坡后壁进行识别与定点,并开展了部分滑坡的野外验证工作。这些滑坡分布在一个面积大约为110000km2的区域内,滑坡总面积约为1160km2。选择一个面积约为44031km2的区域作为研究区,区内滑坡数量为196007个,滑坡面积为1150.622km2,这是最详细完整的汶川地震滑坡编录成果,也是单次地震事件触发滑坡最多的记录。其次,开展研究区内的地震滑坡空间分布规律的研究。基于滑坡面与滑坡中心点分别构建滑坡空间分布面积密度图与点密度图,结果表明:滑坡多沿着映秀北川断裂分布,多发生在断裂的上盘。滑坡的高密度区位于映秀北川同震地表破裂的南西段(映秀镇与北川县之间)的上盘区域,这一区域恰对应着逆冲分量为主的断裂上盘,表明逆冲断裂对上盘区域发生滑坡的极强烈的控制作用,而该区域正是形变最大的区域,因此说明是地震滑坡发生的强烈控制作用。基于滑坡面密度(LAP)、滑坡中心点密度(LCND)与滑坡后壁点密度(LTND)这3个衡量指标,使用统计分析方法,评价了汶川地震滑坡与地震参数、地质参数、地形参数的关系。结果表明:LAP、LCND与LTND这3个衡量指标与坡度、地震烈度与PGA存在明显的正相关关系; 与距离震中、距离映秀北川同震地表破裂存在负相关关系; 斜坡曲率越接近0,滑坡越不易发生; LAP、LCND与LTND的高值高程区间为1200～3000m; 滑坡发生的优势坡向为E、SE、S方向; 滑坡发育的易发岩性为砂岩与粉砂岩(Z)、花岗岩; 滑坡与坡位的相关关系不太明显。统计结果还表明LCND与LTND两个衡量指标的差异对地震与地质因子不敏感,而对地形因子较敏感。最后将本文的统计结果与以往的汶川地震滑坡空间分布规律统计成果进行了一些对比,对比结果表明,对于某些因子,如高程、岩性、距离震中、距离映秀北川断裂的统计分析结果,采用不完整的滑坡分布数据或点数据,与采用较完整的滑坡分布面数据会有一定的差异,这种差异并未出现在针对坡度与坡向等因子的统计对比结果中。总之,作者认为一个完备、详细的地震滑坡分布面要素编目图是地震滑坡空间分布规律定量分析、危险性定量分析与滑坡控制的地震区地貌演化研究的重要基础,否则,与实际情况相比,得到统计结果会有一定的偏差,本文的研究成果与以往成果的对比结果证明了这一点。     

Seismic landslides hazard zoning based on the modified Newmark model: a case study from the Lushan earthquake,China

Seismically triggered landslides can cause great damage to the road construction in mountainous areas. The permanent displacement analysis based on Newmark sliding-block model can evaluate risk of these landslides from the perspective of deformation damage and overall failure probability of slopes. However, the sliding-block model does not consider the attenuation effect of the shear strength on the sliding surface during earthquake, causing the calculated value of Jibson method to be less than the actual value. Therefore, the Newmark model was modified by adding attenuation coefficients to the effective internal friction angle and the effective cohesion of geologic units. The landslide areal density was proposed for hazard zoning with the Wenchuan earthquake data. The results showed that the predicted values agreed well with the real distribution of the landslides triggered by the Lushan earthquake. The proposed hazard zoning method in this paper can predict the severity of seismic landslides in consideration of the environmental changes in mountainous regions after the earthquake and provide support for the site selection in highly seismic areas.

     

Seismically induced rock slope failures resulting from topographic amplification of strong ground motions: The case of Pacoima Canyon, California

The 1994 Northridge earthquake (M_w = 6.7) triggered extensive rock slope failures in Pacoima Canyon, immediately north of Los Angeles, California. Pacoima Canyon is a narrow and steep canyon incised in gneissic and granitic rocks. Peak accelerations of nearly 1.6 g were recorded at a ridge that forms the left abutment of Pacoima Dam; peak accelerations at the bottom of the canyon were less than 0.5 g, suggesting the occurrence of topographic amplification. Topographic effects have been previously suggested to explain similarly high ground motions at the site during the 1971 (M_w = 6.7) San Fernando earthquake. Furthermore, high landslide concentrations observed in the area have been attributed to unusually strong ground motions rather than higher susceptibility to sliding compared with nearby zones. We conducted field investigations and slope stability back-analyses to confirm the impact of topographic amplification on the triggering of landslides during the 1994 earthquake. Our results suggest that the observed extensive rock sliding and falling would have not been possible under unamplified seismic conditions, which would have generated a significantly lower number of areas affected by landslides. In contrast, modelling slope stability using amplified ground shaking predicts slope failure distributions matching what occurred in 1994. This observation confirms a significant role for topographic amplification on the triggering of landslides at the site, and emphasises the need to select carefully the inputs for seismic slope stability analyses.     

A Reliability Based Expert System for Assessment and Mitigation of Landslides Hazard Under Seismic Loading

Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3-D) stability analysis of earth slopes and embankments under earthquake loading using both the safety factor and the displacement criteria of slope failure.The probabilistic models evaluate the probability of failure under seismic loading considering the different sources of uncertainties involved in the problem. The models also take into consideration the spatial variabilities and correlations of soil properties. The developed models are incorporated in a computer program PTDDSSA.These analysis/design procedures are incorporated within a code named SARETL developed in this study for stability analysis and remediation of earthquake triggered landslides. In addition to the dynamic inertia forces, the system takes into consideration local site effects.The code is capable of assessing the landslide hazard affecting major transportation routes in the event of earthquakes and preparing earthquake induced landslide hazard maps (i.e., maps showing expected displacements and probability of slope/embankments failure) for different earthquake magnitudes and environmental conditions. It can also beused for proposing a mitigation strategy against landslides.     

汶川地震黄洞子沟右岸大型滑坡地质构造特征及成因

"5·12"汶川地震发生于龙门山逆冲构造带映秀-北川断裂,此次地震沿约300 km地表破裂带触发了大型滑坡百余处,其中大光包滑坡、红石沟滑坡和老鹰岩滑坡发育于绵阳安州区黄洞子沟右岸不到5 km区段内,规模均超过千万方,且大光包滑坡是此次地震中最大滑坡,也是世界罕见的巨型滑坡。本研究通过大量现场照片、遥感影像和实地测绘,结合XRD、岩石薄片手段在此3个滑坡滑源区展开了详细的地质调查。结果表明:（1）先期深埋的中-缓倾构造层带为大光包滑坡提供了潜在侧滑面,与岩体结构面组合触发了大光包大型楔形体破坏;（2）红石沟滑坡发育于含多级角砾、糜棱质次级错动带的碎裂结构坡体,地震中这些倾坡外的次级错动带快速贯通形成滑坡底滑面;（3）老鹰岩滑坡主控于厚层陡倾构造带,地震中该带沿走向拉裂破坏,加之两侧陡倾结构面组合切割触发了老鹰岩大型楔形体破坏。研究进一步发现,红石沟斜坡紧临大水闸背斜轴部、老鹰岩和大光包斜坡位于其两翼,认为该背斜构造对研究区斜坡地震稳定性有较大影响。本研究仅揭示了3个典型地质构造滑坡类型,汶川地震百余处大型滑坡地质构造成因有待进一步研究。     

Pre-conditioning factors and susceptibility assessments of Wenchuan earthquake landslide at the Zhouqu segment of Bailongjiang basin, China

In this study, we present a landslide susceptibility assessment carried out after the devastating 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. For the Zhouqu segment in the Bailongjiang basin in north-western China landslide susceptibility was computed by a logistic regression method. This region has been experiencing landslides for a long time, and numerous additional slope failures were triggered by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The data used for this study consists of slope failures attributed to the 2008 earthquake, the 878 post Wenchuan earthquake landslides and collapses inventory build up by combination the field investigation, monoscopic manual interpretation, image classification and texture analysis using SPOT 5 and ALOS remote-sensing image data. All data derived from remote sensing images are validated during field investigations. The landslide pre-disposing factor database was constructed. A digital elevation model (DEM) with a 30 × 30 m resolution, orthophotos, geological and land-use maps and information on peak ground acceleration data from the 2008 earthquake is used. The statistical analysis of the relation between Wencuan earthquake-triggered landslides and pre-disposing factors show the great influence of lithological and topographical conditions for earthquake-triggered slope failures. The quality of susceptibility mapping was validated by splitting the study area into a training and validation set. The prediction capability analysis showed that the landslide susceptibility map could be used for land planning as well as emergency planning by local authorities in this region.     

Application of an incomplete landslide inventory, logistic regression model and its validation for landslide susceptibility mapping related to the May 12, 2008 Wenchuan earthquake of China

The main purpose of this paper is to present the use of multi-resource remote sensing data, an incomplete landslide inventory, GIS technique and logistic regression model for landslide susceptibility mapping related to the May 12, 2008 Wenchuan earthquake of China. Landslide location polygons were delineated from visual interpretation of aerial photographs, satellite images in high resolutions, and verified by selecting field investigations. Eight factors, including slope angle, slope aspect, elevation, distance from drainages, distance from roads, distance from main faults, seismic intensity and lithology were selected as controlling factors for earthquake-triggered landslide susceptibility mapping. Qualitative susceptibility analyses were carried out using the map overlaying techniques in GIS platform. The validation result showed a success rate of 82.751 % between the susceptibility probability index map and the location of the initial landslide inventory. The predictive rate of 86.930 % was obtained by comparing the additional landslide polygons and the landslide susceptibility probability index map. Both the success rate and the predictive rate show sufficient agreement between the landslide susceptibility map and the existing landslide data, and good predictive power for spatial prediction of the earthquake-triggered landslides.     

Landslides triggered by slipping-fault-generated earthquake on a plateau: an example of the 14 April 2010, Ms 7.1, Yushu, China earthquake

On 14 April 2010 at 07:49 (Beijing time), a catastrophic earthquake with Ms 7.1 struck Yushu County, Qinghai Province, China. A total of 2,036 landslides were interpreted from aerial photographs and satellite images, verified by selected field checking. These landslides cover about a total area of 1.194 km². The characteristics and failure mechanisms of these landslides are presented in this paper. The spatial distribution of the landslides is evidently strongly controlled by the locations of the main co-seismic surface fault ruptures. The landslides commonly occurred close together. Most of the landslides are small; there were only 275 individual landslide (13.5 % of the total number) surface areas larger than 1,000 m². The landslides are of various types. They are mainly shallow, disrupted landslides, but also include rock falls, deep-seated landslides, liquefaction-induced landslides, and compound landslides. Four types of factors are identified as contributing to failure along with the strong ground shaking: natural excavation of the toes of slopes, which mean erosion of the base of the slope, surface water infiltration into slopes, co-seismic fault slipping at landslide sites, and delayed occurrence of landslides due to snow melt or rainfall infiltration at sites where slopes were weakened by the co-seismic ground shaking. To analyze the spatial distribution of the landslides, the landslide area percentage (LAP) and landslide number density (LND) were compared with peak ground acceleration (PGA), distance from co-seismic main surface fault ruptures, elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, and lithology. The results show landslide occurrence is strongly controlled by proximity to the main surface fault ruptures, with most landslides occurring within 2.5 km of such ruptures. There is no evident correlation between landslide occurrences and PGA. Both LAP and LND have strongly positive correlations with slope gradient, and additionally, sites at elevations between 3,800 and 4,000 m are relatively susceptible to landslide occurrence; as are slopes with northeast, east, and southeast slope aspects. Q₄ al-pl, N, and T₃ kn ¹ have more concentrated landslide activity than others. This paper provides a detailed inventory map of landslides triggered by the 2010 Yushu earthquake for future seismic landslide hazard analysis and also provides a study case of characteristics, failure mechanisms, and spatial distribution of landslides triggered by slipping-fault generated earthquake on a plateau.     

Landslides triggered by the 22 July 2013 Minxian–Zhangxian,China, Mw 5.9 earthquake: Inventory compiling and spatial distribution analysis

On July 22, 2013, an earthquake of Ms. 6.6 occurred at the junction area of Minxian and Zhangxian counties, Gansu Province, China. This earthquake triggered many landslides of various types, dominated by small-scale soil falls, slides, and topples on loess scarps. There were also a few deep-seated landslides, large-scale soil avalanches, and fissure-developing slopes. In this paper, an inventory of landslides triggered by this event is prepared based on field investigations and visual interpretation of high-resolution satellite images. The spatial distribution of the landslides is then analyzed. The inventory indicates that at least 2330 landslides were triggered by the earthquake. A correlation statistics of the landslides with topographic, geologic, and earthquake factors is performed based on the GIS platform. The results show that the largest number of landslides and the highest landslide density are at 2400 m–2600 m of absolute elevation, and 200 m–300 m of relative elevation, respectively. The landslide density does not always increase with slope gradient as previously suggested. The slopes most prone to landslides are in S, SW, W, and NW directions. Concave slopes register higher landslide density and larger number of landslides than convex slopes. The largest number of landslides occurs on topographic position with middle slopes, whereas the highest landslide density corresponds to valleys and lower slopes. The underlying bedrocks consisting of conglomerate and sandstone of Lower Paleogene (E^b) register both the largest number and area of landslides and the highest landslide number and area density values. Correlations of landslide number and landslide density with perpendicular- and along-strike distance from the epicenter show an obvious spatial intensifying character of the co-seismic landslides. The spatial pattern of the co-seismic landslides is strongly controlled by a branch of the Lintan-Dangchang fault, which indicates the effect of seismogenic fault on co-seismic landslides. In addition, the area affected by landslides related to the earthquake is compared to the relationship of “area affected by landslides vs. earthquake magnitude” constructed based on earthquakes worldwide, and it is shown that the area affected by landslides triggered by the Minxian–Zhangxian earthquake is larger than that of almost all other events with similar magnitudes.     

Landslides induced by the 2017 Mw7.3 Sarpol Zahab earthquake (Iran)

Landslides are the main secondary effects of earthquakes in mountainous areas. The spatial distribution of these landslides is controlled by the local seismic ground motion and the local slope stability. While gravitational instabilities in arid and semi-arid environments are understudied, we document the landslides triggered by the Sarpol Zahab earthquake (November 12, 2017, Mw7.3, Iran/Iraq border), the largest event ever recorded in the semi-arid Zagros Mountains. An original earthquake-induced landslide inventory was derived, encompassing landslides of various sizes and velocities (from rapid disrupted rockfalls to slow-moving coherent landslides). This inventory confirms the low level of triggered landslides in semi-arid environments. It also displays clear differences in the spatial and volumetric distributions of earthquake-induced landslides, having 386 rockfalls of limited size triggered around the epicenter, and 9 giant (areas of ca. 10⁶ m²) active and ancient deep-seated landslides coseismically accelerated at locations up to 180 km from the epicenter. This unusual distant triggering is discussed and interpreted as an interaction between the earthquake source properties and the local geological conditions, emphasizing the key role of seismic ground motion variability at short spatial scales in triggering landslides. Finally, the study documents the kinematics of slow-moving ancient landslides accelerated by earthquakes, and opens up new perspectives for studying landslide triggering over short (~?1–10 years) and long-time (~?1000–10,000 years) periods.

     

蒙特卡罗模拟在区域地震滑坡灾害评价中应用

2004年10月23日,日本新泻中越地区发生史上最强地震之一,震级达到Mw6.6。这次地震诱发上千个规模大小不一、形式各样的滑坡,造成一定的灾害损失和人员伤亡。因此,为了有效地避免和减轻这方面的灾害,有必要有效地、科学地预测和评价地震诱发滑坡的空间发生规律。为此以一定的地区作为研究对象,提出了蒙特卡罗随机模拟和Newmark滑动体位移分析法在区域地震斜坡失稳概率分析中的应用。该法充分考虑到岩土参数和相关地震参数空间变异性,结合地理信息系统空间分析的优势,以网格模型为基础,分析该区斜坡滑动体位移分布规律,并以2cm为失稳临界值探讨网格斜坡破坏的概率。实例证明,所提出的模型有效地预测了滑坡发生的空间分布规律。     

1920年海原8.5级地震高烈度区滑坡编录与分布规律

发生在黄土高原的1920年12月16日的海原M_S8.5级大地震触发了大量的滑坡,这些滑坡直接造成了大量的人员伤亡。近年来,出现了一些关于本次地震触发滑坡的专题研究,然而,这些研究多是基于局部震区或者个别单体滑坡进行,极少有关于该地震触发滑坡详细全面的成果出现。这种情况已经成为了深入理解海原地震触发滑坡的规模与程度、发育规律等的障碍。本研究拟基于谷歌地球平台,采用人工目视解译方法,以海原地震高烈度区（Ⅸ~Ⅺ）为研究区,开展地震滑坡解译工作,并分析这些滑坡的分布规律与影响因子之间的关系。结果表明本次地震在Ⅸ~Ⅺ度区内触发了至少5384处滑坡,滑坡总面积为218.78 km2。滑坡密度最高的区域为Ⅸ烈度圈的北西部分。通过分析这些滑坡与地形、地震、地质等因子的关系发现,高程1700~2000 m为滑坡的高发与高易发区间;大多数滑坡集中发育在坡度15°~25°范围内,滑坡密度随着坡度的增加而显著增加;坡位越低,也就是距离河流越近,滑坡密度越大;新生代地层、尤其是第四系黄土覆盖地区是海原地震滑坡发生的主要区域,也是高易发区域。本文为探索黄土地区地震滑坡发育规律、减轻黄土地震滑坡灾害等提供了科学参考。     

国内外地震滑坡研究：现状、问题与展望

地震滑坡一直是地学界关注的研究热点之一,特别是2005年10月8日克什米尔M_s 7.8地震、2008年5月12日汶川M_s 8.0地震、2010年玉树M_s 7.1地震、2014年云南鲁甸M_s 6.5地震、2015年4月25日尼泊尔M_s 8.1地震以及2017年8月8日九寨沟M_s 7.0地震等一系列强震活动,都不同程度地触发了大量地震滑坡,并伴生了许多次生灾害,从而促进地震滑坡研究进入了新的阶段。本文通过总结国内外地震滑坡研究现状,归纳了地震滑坡的特征和分布规律、地震动参数与地震滑坡关系、边坡地质条件与地震滑坡关系、地震滑坡的动力响应特征、地震滑坡预测以及地震滑坡危险性与风险区划等6方面的研究现状,在此基础上进一步提出了未来地震滑坡应关注的主要研究方向和重点。     

Statistical analysis of an earthquake-induced landslide distribution — the 1989 Loma Prieta, California event

The 1989 Loma Prieta, California earthquake (moment magnitude, M=6.9) generated landslides throughout an area of about 15,000 km² in central California. Most of these landslides occurred in an area of about 2000 km² in the mountainous terrain around the epicenter, where they were mapped during field investigations immediately following the earthquake. The distribution of these landslides is investigated statistically, using regression and one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) techniques to determine how the occurrence of landslides correlates with distance from the earthquake source, slope steepness, and rock type. The landslide concentration (defined as the number of landslide sources per unit area) has a strong inverse correlation with distance from the earthquake source and a strong positive correlation with slope steepness. The landslide concentration differs substantially among the various geologic units in the area. The differences correlate to some degree with differences in lithology and degree of induration, but this correlation is less clear, suggesting a more complex relationship between landslide occurrence and rock properties.     

秦岭北麓古滑坡分布特征与地震活动关系研究

地震滑坡是严重的次生地质灾害,也是改变地球表层地貌形态的重要力量,对地震诱发滑坡的规模、数量、类型等研究是地震危险性评价的重要手段,也是认识地震地质灾害的主要方法和途径。位于西安市以南的秦岭山脉北麓中段发育有一条长约50 km的古滑坡群,且基本与山前秦岭北缘断裂带平行展布,普遍认为该古滑坡群可能是由于秦岭北缘断裂的强震活动所诱发,但对于诱发地震的震级大小和影响范围尚没有细致研究。本文通过利用资源3号卫星立体影像制作的高分辨率数值高程模型(DEM)和高分辨率多光谱遥感影像对秦岭北麓古滑坡区域进行了详细的解译工作,并结合对部分古滑坡体进行了野外调查,制作了详细秦岭北麓古滑坡分布图。结果表明:解译出了43处古滑坡,主要集中分布在70 km×10 km的范围内,总滑坡面积是16.57 km2。通过利用地震震级与滑坡面积频度分布的关系分析了诱发秦岭北麓古滑坡群的地震规模,得到了诱发秦岭北麓古滑坡群的地震震级应在7.6~8.1之间。并结合区域地震构造环境以及与现代地震诱发滑坡事件的对比,认为秦岭北麓具有发生7.5级以上地震的潜在能力。该研究对认识现今秦岭北麓古滑坡的成因提供了定量化的数据支持,也对理解秦岭北缘断裂的地震危险性具有重要的现实意义。     

SARETL: an expert system for probabilistic displacement-based dynamic 3-D slope stability analysis and remediation of earthquake triggered landslides

 Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3-D) stability analysis of earth slopes and embankments under earthquake loading using both the safety factor and the displacement criteria of slope failure. In the 3-D analysis, the critical and total slope widths become two new and important parameters. The probabilistic models evaluate the probability of failure under seismic loading and consider the different sources of uncertainties involved in the problem, i.e. uncertainties stemming from the discrepancies between laboratory-measured and in situ values of shear strength parameters, randomness of earthquake occurrence, and earthquake-induced acceleration. The models also take into consideration the spatial variabilities and correlations of soil properties. The developed models are incorporated in a computer program, PTDDSSA (probabilistic three-dimensional dynamic slope stability analysis). These developed analysis/design procedures are incorporated within a code named SARETL (stability analysis and remediation of earthquake-triggered landslides) that was developed in this study for stability analysis and remediation of earthquake-triggered landslides. In addition to the dynamic inertia forces; the developed system takes into consideration the local site effects. The code is capable of: 1. Prediction of permanent deformations that result from landslides under seismic loading using both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. 2. The assessment of landslide hazard that affects major transportation routes in the event of earthquakes, and the preparation of earthquake-induced landslide hazard maps (i.e. maps that show expected displacements and probability of slope/embankments failure) for different earthquakes magnitudes and environmental conditions. 3. Proposing a mitigation strategy against landslides and suggesting guidelines for remedial measures. The developed expert system is applied to a major highway case study. Design maps are developed for the highway under seismic loading. Received: 18 March 1999 · Accepted: 11 October 1999     

Influence of seismic acceleration on landslide susceptibility maps: a case study from NE Turkey (the Kelkit Valley)

Particularly in the last decade, landslide susceptibility and hazard maps have been used for urban planning and site selection of infrastructures. Most of the procedures for preparing of landslide susceptibility maps need high-quality landslide inventory map. Although the rainfall and seismic activities are accepted as triggering factor for landslides, designation of the triggering factor for each landslide in the inventory is almost impossible when well-documented records are unavailable. Therefore, during preparation of landslide susceptibility map, whole landslide records in the inventory map are used together without classifying based on the triggering factors. Although seismic activity is accepted as a triggering factor, possible effect of the use of seismic activity on production of landslide susceptibility map was investigated in this study, and the subject is open to discussion. For this purpose, a series of stability analyses based on circular failure and infinite slope model were performed considering different pseudostatic conditions. The results of analyses show that gentle slopes have higher susceptibility to failure than steeper ones, even if their stability conditions (susceptibilities) are similar for static condition. The seismic forces acting on failure surfaces may not be sufficiently taken into consideration in the conventionally prepared landslide susceptibility maps. Employing the general decreasing trend in stability condition based on slope face angle and the seismic acceleration, a new procedure was introduced for preparing of the landslide susceptibility map for a scenario earthquake. The prediction performance of occurring landslides increased after the procedure was applied to the conventionally prepared landslide susceptibility map. According to the threshold independent spatial performance analyses of the proposed methodology and the produced landslide susceptibility maps, the area under ROC curve values were calculated as 0.801, 0.933, and 0.947 for the maps prepared by considering conventional method and scenario earthquakes having M _w values of 5.5 and 7.5, respectively.     

Statistical modelling of Europe-wide landslide susceptibility using limited landslide inventory data

In many regions, the absence of a landslide inventory hampers the production of susceptibility or hazard maps. Therefore, a method combining a procedure for sampling of landslide-affected and landslide-free grid cells from a limited landslide inventory and logistic regression modelling was tested for susceptibility mapping of slide- and flow-type landslides on a European scale. Landslide inventories were available for Norway, Campania (Italy), and the Barcelonnette Basin (France), and from each inventory, a random subsample was extracted. In addition, a landslide dataset was produced from the analysis of Google Earth images in combination with the extraction of landslide locations reported in scientific publications. Attention was paid to have a representative distribution of landslides over Europe. In total, the landslide-affected sample contained 1,340 landslides. Then a procedure to select landslide-free grid cells was designed taking account of the incompleteness of the landslide inventory and the high proportion of flat areas in Europe. Using stepwise logistic regression, a model including slope gradient, standard deviation of slope gradient, lithology, soil, and land cover type was calibrated. The classified susceptibility map produced from the model was then validated by visual comparison with national landslide inventory or susceptibility maps available from literature. A quantitative validation was only possible for Norway, Spain, and two regions in Italy. The first results are promising and suggest that, with regard to preparedness for and response to landslide disasters, the method can be used for urgently required landslide susceptibility mapping in regions where currently only sparse landslide inventory data are available.