震后趋势早期判断的初步研究

本文系统清理了云南及邻近地区1965年以来106个地震序列,对h、b、K、U、等值的震后趋势早期(7天以内)判断指标和预报能力;双震型序列中h、b值的联合早期判断;前震、多震型序列的地震波特征等方面进行了初步研究,并将权重集成法应用于地震序列的早期综合判断中,提取了各单项方法的权重系数和权重集成值的临界阈值。     

邛崃4.5级地震与震后趋势判断

邛崃地震发生后，成都市地震局很快做出反应，及时开展了地震考察并做出了正确的震后趋势判断，取得了较好的社会效益。     

大柴旦地震序列尾波衰减Q值变化特征研究

利用大柴旦数字地震台记录的2008年6.3级和2009年6.4级的数字地震资料,系统地分析了大柴旦地震序列尾波Q值随时间的变化,着重分析了尾波Q值在强震前的短期变化特征.结果表明,Q值在大震前后有较明显的变化,基本趋势是震前Q值增高,震后降低.     

用时空转换系数判断震后趋势

本文定义地震的时空距ＤＳＴ格时空转换系数Ｃ为：Ｄ＾２ＳＴ＝ｄ＾２＋Ｃ＾２（△ｔ）＾２，ｄ为序列中连续发生的两次地震的空间距，△ｔ为时间间隔。采用６０年代来发生在我国５级以上有详细目录的地震序列２３个，分别计算了主震后１天，２－３天，４－７天内Ｃ的值Ｃ１，Ｃ３，Ｃ７，计算中取ＤＳＴ为相应时间段内地震空间距的最大值。结果表明：（１）若Ｃ１＞Ｃ３＞Ｃ７，则无强余震发生；（２）若Ｃ１≌Ｃ３，或Ｃ１＜Ｃ３＜     

FAM人工神经网络模型在震后趋势判断中的应用

介绍了FAM模糊人工神经网络的原理、学习方法与规则,提出了用于地震震后序列3种震型的判断标准及现场预报规则,建立了基于FAM人工神经网络模型的地震现场预报手段与准则.     

利用静态、动态应力降比值判断东北地震震后趋势

统计分析2005年以来黑龙江及周边地区中强地震的频谱特征,分别计算各地震的应力降,利用静态与动态应力降比值,判断该区中强地震震后趋势。研究发现,2005年以来该区中强震Y值较大,在0.3—0.6,以孤立型地震为主。     

粤西地区的地震尾波Q值和尾波衰减特征

根据Aki的尾波理论,利用短周期仪器记录的地震资料,用两种方法估测了粤西地区的尾波Q值,得到了如下结果;Q_0值为260—370,频率相关系数η值为0.0—0.2。阳江地区的Q_0值较低,其它地区大致相同.Q_0值的分布与地质构造和地震活动有较好的相关性. 研究了粤西地区的尾波衰减特征,得到尾波衰减率K为1.88—3.18,K值与Q值的分布彼此有较好的对应性。以上结果可为地震烈度衰减和地震危险性分析等方面的研究提供参考。     

菏泽5.9级地震前后地震尾波的衰减特征

本文利用菏泽、嘉祥和梁山地震台1979—1985年记录菏泽地震巢内的地震资料,分别计算了三分向和垂直向的地震尾波衰减系数K值,分忻了菏泽5.9级地震前后地震尾波的衰减变化。计算结果,菏泽、嘉祥和梁山台的三分向和垂直向的尾波衰减系数,在5.9级地震前均出现了明显的低值异常。异常时间21个月,最低值的下降幅度达50％左右。地震后尾波衰减系数K值恢复正常。     

自然类比法在地震序列分类及震后趋势早期判别中的应用

从震后趋势判断的实际需要出发，提出了一种地震序列类型划分的新方法，即根据强余震次数将序列划分为无强余震型、强余震较少型、强余震较多型、强余震极多型四种类型。为了实现早期判别的目标，采用地震后３天的资料用自然类比法对地震序列类型和震后趋势作判断。将新发生的序列前３天应变能释放分布情况和频度分布情况与以前发生的序列逐一加以比较，用柯尔莫哥洛夫－斯米尔诺夫检验找出与之最相似的一、二个序列，用已知序列的类     

林甸5.1级地震及震后趋势判断

本文介绍了林甸5.1级地震的基本情况。对地震序列特征进行了研究,对震后趋势进行了判断。     

Characteristics of coda wave attenuation in Yunnan area

The characteristic of seismic coda wave attenuation in Yunnan area in 7 frequency-bands range from 1 Hz to 20 Hz was estimated by using the local earthquake's waveform data recorded from 22 Yunnan digital seismic stations.Coda attenuation Q-c1 of each station was firstly calculated by single scattering method. Then, mean free path Le and seismic albedo Bo of each station were calculated, and scattering attenuation Q-1s and intrinsic attenuation Q-1i were separated from total attenuation Q-1t by multiple lapse time window analysis based on the multiple scattering model in uniform random isotropic scattering medium. The attenuating characteristics in Yunnan show that most value of Le are in 10～30 km, with maximal within 2～6 Hz;Bo are about 0.5 at 1～2 Hz, but less than 0.5at other frequency-bands, which means Q-1i is comparable with Q-1s at 1～2 Hz, and after 1～2 Hz, Q-1i is greater than Q-1s and dominates the attenuation process. Q-1c is close to Q-1i at other frequency bands except 1～2 Hz.Results show that Q-1 especially Qs-1 varies spatially, Q-1 in eastern Yunnan zone is a bit higher than in northwestern Yunnan zone;northwestern Yunnan zone higher than southwestern Yunnan zone. Comparing with other results in global, Qs-1 in Yunnan is lower than the global average value among these results, Q-1i is higher than the global average value, and Q-1t lies the middle among these results.     

Estimation of frequency dependent coda wave attenuation structure at the vicinity of Cairo Metropolitan Area

Estimation of seismic wave attenuation in the shallow crust in terms of coda wave Q structure previously investigated in the vicinity of Cairo Metropolitan Area was improved using seismograms of local earthquakes recorded by the Egyptian National Seismic Network. The seismic wave attenuation was measured from the time decay of coda wave amplitudes on narrow bandpass filtered seismograms based on the single scattering theory. The frequency bands of interest are from 1.5 to 18 Hz. In general, the values obtained for various events recorded at El-Fayoum and Wadi Hagul stations are very similar for all frequency bands. A regional attenuation law Q _c = 85.66 f ^0.79 was obtained.     

邯郸-邢台地区尾波衰减特征研究

利用红山数字地震台和邯郸数字台网记录到的2001年3月~2006年7月近震波形资料,采用Aki的尾波单次散射模型计算了邯郸—邢台地区不同尾波窗长的Qc值,窗长为20s时该区域的平均值为Qc=78f0.92,40s时Qc=144f0.88。在研究范围内呈现出北高南低的态势。     

云南地区散射衰减、吸收衰减及尾波衰减的综合研究

利用云南省地震局遥测台网记录的地震波形资料,采用多流逝时间窗分析方法,得到了云南地区不同台站的散射衰减和吸收衰减,并通过单次散射模型得到了不同台站的尾波衰减.研究结果显示,云南地区的散射衰减、吸收衰减、总衰减和尾波衰减空间分布以金沙江—红河断裂带为界,均表现出西部低,东部高的特征.云南地区地震波衰减以吸收为主,2~4 Hz、4~8 Hz、8~16 Hz三个频带各台站的吸收衰减Q^－1_i均大于散射衰减Q^－1_c,1~2 Hz除个别台站的吸收衰减明显小于散射衰减,其它台站均大于或接近散射衰减.尾波衰减Q^－1_c在1~2 Hz稍大于吸收衰减而小于总衰减,在2~4 Hz、4~8 Hz、8~16 Hz与总衰减接近,个别台站大于总衰减Q^－1_t.云南地区散射衰减与频率的关系为Q^－1_s=0.0138f^－1.61,吸收衰减与频率的关系为Q^－1_i=0.0119f^－0.86,总衰减与频率的关系为Q^－1_t=0.0247f^－1.1,尾波衰减与频率的关系为Q^－1_c=0.0129f^－0.71.与世界其它地区相比,云南地区的散射衰减处于中等偏低的水平,吸收衰减处于中等偏高的水平.     

浙江珊溪水库库区地震波衰减特征研究

2002—2007年发生的珊溪水库地震事件是少震、 弱震的浙江省区域显著的地震事件. 搜集182次M_L>2.0地震的近场台站数字地震波形, 使用这些波形高信噪比的尾波时间域信号, 根据计算尾波Q_c(f)值的Sato模型, 通过滤波及去除环境噪声, 计算了地震波传播路径上的尾波Q_c(f)值; 拟合Q_c(f)值与频率f之间的关系, 分析了水库区域地震波衰减的时空特征. 根据信噪比及计算要求, 从近场9个台站的记录中挑选出641条三分向记录, 计算尾波衰减参数, 得到尾波Q_c(f)与频率f的关系为: Q_c(f)=52.19±7.11f^{0.922 1±0.05}. 结果表明, 本区域为低衰减区域. 震群活动使区域介质对高频率波衰减趋势性增大. 进一步对尾波衰减参数及尾波采样体之间的关系分析发现, 该区域存在深部高衰减层.     

2009年云南姚安M_S6.0地震余震序列尾波Q_c值研究

利用云南大姚地震台记录到的2009年姚安6.0级地震余震序列的数字化波形观测资料,基于尾波单次散射理论,估算该次地震震源区尾波Qc值。结果表明:中心频率为1.5 Hz时,振幅衰减率β(f)在-0.141 27～-0.043 05之间,平均值为-0.074 60;Qc值在33.3～99.8之间,平均值为65.5。并得出Qc值与频率的关系:尾波波源因子与震级成正比,与频率成反比。主震发生后头几天,尾波Qc值(1.5 Hz)波动较大,之后在±1.5倍方差线内趋于稳定,且没有超过5级的强余震发生。姚安地区尾波Qc值具有构造运动活跃、地震活动频繁地区的低Qc值特征。     

地震波衰减的物理机制研究

对近年来有关地震波衰减的物理机制进行评述和初步研究认为,对于地壳介质,造成地震波衰减的主要原因是地壳内存在大量裂隙,裂纹中饱含水或部分含水,地震波传播时引起裂隙中的流体运动,从而造成地震波的衰减,对于上地幔,扩散控制的位错阻尼机制可能是造成地幔地震波衰减的一个重要原因,而上地幔软流层部分熔融的存在也是造成地震波衰减不可忽视的原因．     

内蒙古东部地震形势及平均波速比分析

内蒙古东部地区(41°—51°N,115°—125°E)近几年来地震活动性增强,中强地震比较活跃。2009年,辽蒙交界和牙克石-扎兰屯地区的地震形势更加紧迫。基于内蒙古东部的地震形势分析,根据内蒙古东部地区的台站分布、断裂构造及地震空间分布特点等,划分出4个分区;在2003年到2009年的时段内,筛选出符合计算要求的地震事件482个。根据多台和达法,分别计算各个分区的平均波速比值,通过对波速比曲线进行近均值滑动滤波,分析波速比在中强地震前的变化规律,认为可以把震前波速比异常作为中强地震发生的中短期指标。     

适用于多种卫星数据的太湖水体漫衰减系数估算算法

下行漫衰减系数(K_d)是描述水下光场的重要参数,决定水体真光层深度,影响着浮游藻类初级生产力及其分布特征.基于2008—2013年太湖4次大规模野外试验数据,分析太湖水体漫衰减系数特征及其影响因素,建立适用于多种卫星数据且较高精度的太湖水体490 nm处下行漫衰减系数估算模型.结果表明:无机悬浮物是太湖水体漫衰减系数的主要影响因素;红绿波段比值(674 nm/555 nm)最适合于太湖K_d(490)估算,模型反演精度较高(N=72,R~2=0.72,RMSE=0.89 m~(-1),MAPE=21.58%);利用实测光谱数据,模拟得到MODIS/EOS、OLCI/Sentinel-3、GOCI/COMS和MSI/Sentinel-2等主要传感器波段的信号,构建适用于多种卫星传感器K_d(490)估算的红绿波段模型,建模精度较高(N=72,R~20.7,RMSE0.9 m~(-1),MAPE22.0%),且进行了验证(N=37,R~20.7,RMSE0.9 m~(-1),MAPE22.0%).     

Observations of teleseismicP wave coda for underground explosions

The earlyP wave coda (5–15 sec after the first arrival) of underground explosions at the Nevada Test Site is studied in the time domain using 2082 teleseismic short-period recordings, with the intent of identifying near-source contributions to the signals in the frequency range 0.2–2.0 Hz. Smaller magnitude events tend to have relatively high coda levels in the 0.4–0.8 Hz frequency band for both Yucca Flat and Pahute Mesa explosions. Coda complexity in this low-frequency passband is negatively correlated with burial depth for Pahute Mesa events but is only weakly correlated with depth for Yucca Flat events. Enhanced excitation of relatively long-period scattered waves for smaller, less deeply buried events is required to explain this behavior. Coda complexity in the 0.8–1.1 Hz band is positively correlated with magnitude and depth for Pahute Mesa events, but has no such dependence for Yucca Flat events. This may result from systematic variations between the spectra of direct signals and coda arrivals caused bypP interference for the largest events, all of which were detonated at Pahute Mesa. Another possible explanation is a frequency-dependent propagation effect on the direct signals of the larger events, most of which were located in the center of the mesa overlying strong lateral velocity gradients in the crust and upper mantle. Event average complexity varies spatially for both test sites, particularly in the 0.8–1.1 Hz band, providing evidence for frequency-dependent focussing or scattering by near-source structure. Both the direct arrivals and the early coda have strong azimuthal amplitude patterns that are produced by defocussing by mantle heterogeneity. The direct arrivals have stronger coherent azimuthal patterns than the early coda for Pahute Mesa events, indicating more pronounced deep crustal and shallow mantle defocussing for the direct signals. However, for Yucca Flat events the direct arrivals have less coherent azimuthal patterns than the coda, suggesting that a highly variable component of near-source scattering preferentially affecting the downgoing energy is superimposed on a pattern produced by mantle heterogeneity that affects the entire signal. This complicated behavior of the direct arrivals may be the result of triplications and caustics produced by the complex basement structure known to underlie the Yucca Flat test site. The presence of strong azimuthal patterns in the early coda indicates that source strength estimates based on early coda are subject to biases similar to those affecting estimates based on direct arrivals.