Nonparametric asymptotic confidence intervals for extreme quantiles

In this paper, we propose new asymptotic confidence intervals for extreme quantiles, that is, for quantiles located outside the range of the available data. We restrict ourselves to the situation where the underlying distribution is heavy-tailed. While asymptotic confidence intervals are mostly constructed around a pivotal quantity, we consider here an alternative approach based on the distribution of order statistics sampled from a uniform distribution. The convergence of the coverage probability to the nominal one is established under a classical second-order condition. The finite sample behavior is also examined and our methodology is applied to a real dataset.     

On the distribution-free confidence intervals and universal bounds for quantiles based on joint records

In this paper, we consider three distribution-free confidence intervals for quantiles given joint records from two independent sequences of continuous random variables with a common continuous distribution function. The coverage probabilities of these intervals are compared. We then compute the universal bounds of the expected widths of the proposed confidence intervals. These results naturally extend to any number of independent sequences instead of just two. Finally, the proposed confidence intervals are applied for a real data set to illustrate the practical usefulness of the procedures developed here.     

Distribution-free confidence intervals for quantiles and tolerance intervals in terms of k-records

In this paper, we consider the problem of determining non-parametric confidence intervals for quantiles when available data are in the form of k-records. Distribution-free confidence intervals as well as lower and upper confidence limits are derived for fixed quantiles of an arbitrary unknown distribution based on k-records of an independent and identically distributed sequence from that distribution. The construction of tolerance intervals and limits based on k-records is also discussed. An exact expression for the confidence coefficient of these intervals are derived. Some tables are also provided to assist in choosing the appropriate k-records for the construction of these confidence intervals and tolerance intervals. Some simulation results are presented to point out some of the features and properties of these intervals. Finally, the data, representing the records of the amount of annual rainfall in inches recorded at Los Angeles Civic Center, are used to illustrate all the results developed in this paper and also to demonstrate the improvements that they provide on those based on either the usual records or the current records.     

Sample-size requirements for confidence bounds of prescribed precision on multivariate normal quantiles

The problem of setting confidence bounds on a central multivariate normal quantile is considered. It is shown that for the setting of exact confidence bounds of specified closeness to the quantile,the required minimum size of a normal sample is large and rises rapidly with the number of variates considered.     

Short confidence intervals for variance components

Four approximate methods are proposed to construct confidence intervals for the estimation of variance components in unbalanced mixed models. The first three methods are modifications of the Wald, arithmetic and harmonic mean procedures, see Harville and Fenech (1985), while the fourth is an adaptive approach, combining the arithmetic and harmonic mean procedures. The performances of the proposed methods were assessed by a Monte Carlo simulation study. It was found that the intervals based on Wald's method maintained the nominal confidence levels across all designs and values of the parameters under study. On the other hand, the arithmetic (harmonic) mean method performed well for small (large) values of the variance component, relative to the error variance component. The adaptive procedure performed rather well except for extremely unbalanced designs. Further, compared with equal tails intervals, the intervals which use special tables, e.g., Table 678 of Tate and Klett (1959), provided adequate coverage while having much shorter lengths and are thus recommended for use in practice.     

Simultaneous pseudo confidence regions for ratios of the discriminant coefficients

We consider simultaneous confidence regions for some hypotheses on ratios of the discriminant coefficients of the linear discriminant function when the population means and common covariance matrix are unknown. This problem, involving hypotheses on ratios, yields the so-called ‘pseudo’ confidence regions valid conditionally in subsets of the parameter space. We obtain the explicit formulae of the regions and give further discussion on the validity of these regions. Illustrations of the pseudo confidence regions are given.     

Empirical likelihood confidence intervals under imputation for missing survey data from stratified simple random sampling

Missing observations due to non‐response are commonly encountered in data collected from sample surveys. The focus of this article is on item non‐response which is often handled by filling in (or imputing) missing values using the observed responses (donors). Random imputation (single or fractional) is used within homogeneous imputation classes that are formed on the basis of categorical auxiliary variables observed on all the sampled units. A uniform response rate within classes is assumed, but that rate is allowed to vary across classes. We construct confidence intervals (CIs) for a population parameter that is defined as the solution to a smooth estimating equation with data collected using stratified simple random sampling. The imputation classes are assumed to be formed across strata. Fractional imputation with a fixed number of random draws is used to obtain an imputed estimating function. An empirical likelihood inference method under the fractional imputation is proposed and its asymptotic properties are derived. Two asymptotically correct bootstrap methods are developed for constructing the desired CIs. In a simulation study, the proposed bootstrap methods are shown to outperform traditional bootstrap methods and some non‐bootstrap competitors under various simulation settings. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 281–301; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

Comparison of pivotals for confidence bounds and intervals for the mean of a stationary time series

We construct new pivotals to obtain confidence bounds and confidence intervals for the mean of a stationary process. These follow the approach based on estimating functions. The new pivotals are compared with the standard pivotal based on studentization. We study the first four cumulants of each of these pivotals and explain why the pivotals based on the estimating function approach result in better coverage probabilities. Some simulation results comparing these pivotals have been reported.     

Some calibration estimators for finite population mean in two-stage stratified random sampling

Abstract

In the present article, an effort has been made to develop calibration estimators of the population mean under two-stage stratified random sampling design when auxiliary information is available at primary stage unit (psu) level. The properties of the developed estimators are derived in-terms of design based approximate variance and approximate consistent design based estimator of the variance. Some simulation studies have been conducted to investigate the relative performance of calibration estimator over the usual estimator of the population mean without using auxiliary information in two-stage stratified random sampling. Proposed calibration estimators have outperformed the usual estimator without using auxiliary information.     

Approximate confidence bounds for ratios of variance components in two-way unbalanced crossed models with interactions

Consider the general unbalanced two-factor crossed components-of-variance model with interaction given by Y_ijk: = μ+A_i: +B_j: + C_ij: +E_ijk: (i = 1,2, … a; j = 1,…,b; k = 1,…,.n_ij:=0) A_i:,B_j:, C_ij: and E_ijk: are independent unobservable random variables. Also A_i:sim; N(0,σ² _A),B_j: ～ N(0,σ² _B), C_ij:～N(0,s² _C:) and E_ijk:～N(0,s² _E:). In this paper approximate confidence bounds are obtained for ρ_A: = ρ² _A/² and ρ_B: = ρ² _B:/ρ² (where σ² = σ² _A:+ σ² _B+σ² _Cσ² _E) for special cases of the above model. The balanced incomplete block model is studied as a special case.     

Conservative confidence intervals for a single parameter

The method of constructing confidence intervals from hypothesis tests is studied in the case in which there is a single unknown parameter and is proved to provide confidence intervals with coverage probability that is at least the nominal level. The confidence intervals obtained by the method in several different contexts are seen to compare favorably with confidence intervals obtained by traditional methods. The traditional intervals are seen to have coverage probability less than the nominal level in several instances, This method can be applied to all confidence interval problems and reduces to the traditional method when an exact pivotal statistic is known.     

Lower confidence bounds as precision measure for truncated processes

Process capability index C_p has been the most popular one used in the manufacturing industry to provide numerical measures on process precision. For normally distributed processes with automatic fully inspections, the inspected processes follow truncated normal distributions. In this article, we provide the formulae of moments used for the Edgeworth approximation on the precision measurement C_p for truncated normally distributed processes. Based on the developed moments, lower confidence bounds with various sample sizes and confidence levels are provided and tabulated. Consequently, practitioners can use lower confidence bounds to determine whether their manufacturing processes are capable of preset precision requirements.     

Nonparametric confidence intervals for quantiles and quantile intervals from inversely sampled record breaking data in a multi-sample plan

There are a number of situations in which an observation is retained only if it is a record value, which include studies in industrial quality control experiments, destructive stress testing, meteorology, hydrology, seismology, athletic events and mining. When the number of records is fixed in advance, the data are referred to as inversely sampled record-breaking data. In this paper, we study the problems of constructing the nonparametric confidence intervals for quantiles and quantile intervals of the parent distribution based on record data. For a single record-breaking sample, the confidence coefficients of the confidence intervals for the pth quantile cannot exceed p and 1?p, on the basis of upper and lower records, respectively; hence, replication is required. So, we develop the procedure based on k independent record-breaking samples. Various cases have been studied and in each case, the optimal k and the exact nonparametric confidence intervals are obtained, and exact expressions for the confidence coefficients of these confidence intervals are derived. Finally, the results are illustrated by numerical computations.     

Conservative confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient for clustered binary data

Asymptotic approaches are traditionally used to calculate confidence intervals for intraclass correlation coefficient in a clustered binary study. When sample size is small to medium, or correlation or response rate is near the boundary, asymptotic intervals often do not have satisfactory performance with regard to coverage. We propose using the importance sampling method to construct the profile confidence limits for the intraclass correlation coefficient. Importance sampling is a simulation based approach to reduce the variance of the estimated parameter. Four existing asymptotic limits are used as statistical quantities for sample space ordering in the importance sampling method. Simulation studies are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed accurate intervals with regard to coverage and interval width. Simulation results indicate that the accurate intervals based on the asymptotic limits by Fleiss and Cuzick generally have shorter width than others in many cases, while the accurate intervals based on Zou and Donner asymptotic limits outperform others when correlation and response rate are close to their boundaries.     

Exact confidence bounds for an exponential parameter under hybrid censoring

Consider a life testing experiment in which n units are put on test, successive failure times are recorded, and the observation is terminated either at a specified number r of failures or a specified time T whichever is reached first. This mixture of type I and type II censoring schemes, called hybrid censoring, is of wide use. Under this censoring scheme and the assumption of an exponential life distribution, the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mean life θ is derived. It is then used to construct an exact lower confidence bound for θ.     

Exact confidence bounds for an exponential parameter under hybrid censoring

Consider a life testing experiment in which n units are put on test, successive failure times are recorded, and the observation is terminated either at a specified number r of failures or a specified time T whichever is reached first. This mixture of type I and type II censoring schemes, called hybrid censoring, is of wide use. Under this censoring scheme and the assumption of an exponential life distribution, the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mean life 6 is derived. It is then used to construct an exact lower confidence bound for θ.     

Equal‐tailed confidence intervals for comparison of rates

Several methods are available for generating confidence intervals for rate difference, rate ratio, or odds ratio, when comparing two independent binomial proportions or Poisson (exposure‐adjusted) incidence rates. Most methods have some degree of systematic bias in one‐sided coverage, so that a nominal 95% two‐sided interval cannot be assumed to have tail probabilities of 2.5% at each end, and any associated hypothesis test is at risk of inflated type I error rate. Skewness‐corrected asymptotic score methods have been shown to have superior equal‐tailed coverage properties for the binomial case. This paper completes this class of methods by introducing novel skewness corrections for the Poisson case and for odds ratio, with and without stratification. Graphical methods are used to compare the performance of these intervals against selected alternatives. The skewness‐corrected methods perform favourably in all situations—including those with small sample sizes or rare events—and the skewness correction should be considered essential for analysis of rate ratios. The stratified method is found to have excellent coverage properties for a fixed effects analysis. In addition, another new stratified score method is proposed, based on the t‐distribution, which is suitable for use in either a fixed effects or random effects analysis. By using a novel weighting scheme, this approach improves on conventional and modern meta‐analysis methods with weights that rely on crude estimation of stratum variances. In summary, this paper describes methods that are found to be robust for a wide range of applications in the analysis of rates.     

Pseudo‐empirical likelihood ratio confidence intervals for complex surveys

The authors show how an adjusted pseudo‐empirical likelihood ratio statistic that is asymptotically distributed as a chi‐square random variable can be used to construct confidence intervals for a finite population mean or a finite population distribution function from complex survey samples. They consider both non‐stratified and stratified sampling designs, with or without auxiliary information. They examine the behaviour of estimates of the mean and the distribution function at specific points using simulations calling on the Rao‐Sampford method of unequal probability sampling without replacement. They conclude that the pseudo‐empirical likelihood ratio confidence intervals are superior to those based on the normal approximation, whether in terms of coverage probability, tail error rates or average length of the intervals.