Snow cover variation and streamflow simulation in a snow-fed river basin of the Northwest Himalaya

Snowmelt is an important component of any snow-fed river system.The Jhelum River is one such transnational mountain river flowing through India and Pakistan.The basin is minimally glacierized and its discharge is largely governed by seasonal snow cover and snowmelt.Therefore,accurate estimation of seasonal snow cover dynamics and snowmeltinduced runoff is important for sustainable water resource management in the region.The present study looks into spatio-temporal variations of snow cover for past decade and stream flow simulation in the Jhelum River basin.Snow cover extent(SCE) was estimated using MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) sensor imageries.Normalized Difference Snow Index(NDSI) algorithm was used to generate multi-temporal time series snow cover maps.The results indicate large variation in snow cover distribution pattern and decreasing trend in different sub-basins of the Jhelum River.The relationship between SCE-temperature,SCE-discharge and discharge-precipitation was analyzed for different seasons and shows strong correlation.For streamflow simulation of the entire Jhelum basin Snow melt Runoff Model(SRM) used.A good correlation was observed between simulated stream flow and in-situ discharge.The monthly discharge contribution from different sub-basins to the total discharge of the Jhelum River was estimated using a modified version of runoff model based on temperature-index approach developed for small watersheds.Stream power - an indicator of the erosive capability of streams was also calculated for different sub-basins.     

Hydrological impacts of climate change on streamflow of Dongliao River watershed in Jilin Province, China

The impacts of future climate change on streamflow of the Dongliao River Watershed located in Jilin Province,China have been evaluated quantitatively by using a general circulation model(HadCM3)coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)hydrological model.The model was calibrated and validated against the historical monitored data from 2005 to 2009.The streamflow was estimated by downscaling HadCM3 outputs to the daily mean temperature and precipitation series,derived for three 30-year time slices,2020s,2050s and 2080s.Results suggest that daily mean temperature increases with a changing rate of 0.435℃per decade,and precipitation decreases with a changing rate of 0.761 mm per decade.Compared with other seasons,the precipitation in summer shows significant downward trend,while a significant upward trend in autumn.The annual streamflow demonstrates a general downward trend with a decreasing rate of 0.405 m3/s per decade.The streamflow shows significant downward and upward trends in summer and in autumn,respectively.The decreasing rate of streamflow in summer reaches 1.97 m 3 /s per decade,which contributes primarily to the decrease of streamflow.The results of this work would be of great benifit to the design of economic and social development planning in the study area.     

Assessment of alpine summit flora in Kashmir Himalaya and its implications for long-term monitoring of climate change impacts

In an era of climate change,the availability of empirical data on alpine summit vegetation in the Himalaya is still scarce.Here we report the assessment of alpine summit flora in Gulmarg Wildlife Sanctuary,Kashmir Himalaya.We employed a globally standardized Multi-Summit Approach and four spatially isolated summits spanning an elevation gradient of 210 m(between 3530-3740 m a.s.l.) from natural treeline to nival zone were studied.Sampling of the summits was carried out in the year 2018 to collect floristic data together with records of soil temperature.A total of 142 vascular plant species were recorded in the sampled summits.Majority of the species were of herbaceous growth form and with perennial life span.Based on Raunkiaer's life form,hemicryptophytes were the most dominant followed by therophytes and phanerophytes.The summit flora showed the predominance of narrow-endemic species,with broad-and non-endemics declining with elevation.A significant relationship between growth form,Raunkiaer's life form,and the degree of endemism with elevation was observed.Both species diversity and soil temperature showed a monotonic decrease with increasing elevation.Interestingly,soil temperature clearly determined the magnitude of species diversity on the summits.Furthermore,based on floristic composition,the lowest summit had the highest dissimilarity with the rest of the summits.The present study employed globally standardized protocol to scientifically assess the patterns of plant diversity on the alpine mountain summits of Kashmir Himalaya,which in turn has wide implications towards long-term monitoring of climate change impact on alpine biodiversity in the rapidly warming Himalaya.     

Vulnerability assessment of crop production to climate change across Northwest China during 1995–2014

Crop production vulnerability to climate change in Northwest China depends upon multiple socio-ecological factors.Knowledge regarding the specific indicators and methods suitable for assessing crop production vulnerability is limited that address spatiotemporal variations across large and diverse zones.We propose an integrated assessment framework to quantify the vulnerability of crop production derived from crop yield sensitivity,exposure,and adaptive consequences across 338 counties in Northwest China during 1995–2014.Maps on these indices were generated using climatic and socioeconomic data with spatial mapping method.Different clusters of crop production vulnerability were then identified by a k-means cluster method to assess the heterogeneity of vulnerability at a regional scale.Results show that the vulnerability of crop production in 338 counties varies significantly in both geographical and socioeconomic aspects,specifically,vulnerability indicators are generally higher in Minhe,Menyuan,Hualong,and Ledu,and Xayar had the lowest value of vulnerability.This indicates that adaptation strategies for regional crop production need to focus on several levels,from the improvement of adaptive ability to crop yield fluctuation by promoting irrigation agriculture and optimizing limited water resources in typical arid areas,to agriculture-related financial policies incentivizing the capital investment and technology upgrade of crop production on traditional farming regions.This study provides convincing evidence that the factors related to socioeconomic policies are particularly alarming when a crop’s risk is compared to precipitation fluctuations.We recommend these findings be used to facilitate regional agriculture planning to reduce crop production vulnerability and ensure sustainable food security in specific regions.     

Changes in Agricultural Biodiversity： Implications for Sustainable Livelihood in the Himalaya

Himalayan mountain system is distinguished globally for a rich biodiversity and for its role in regulating the climate of the South Asia.Traditional crop-livestock mixed farming in the Himalaya is highly dependent on forests for fodder and manure prepared from forest leaf litter and livestock excreta. Apart from sustaining farm production, forests provide a variety of other tangible and intangible benefits, which are critical for sustainable livelihood of not only 115 million mountain people, but also many more people living in the adjoining plains. Extension of agricultural landuse coupled with replacement of traditional staple food crops by cash crops and of multipurpose agroforestry trees by fruit trees are widespread changes. Cultivation of Fagopyrum esculentum,Fagopyrum tataricum, Panicum miliaceum, Setaria italica and Pisum arvense has been almost abandoned. Increasing stress on cash crops is driven by a socio-cultural change from subsistence to market economy facilitated by improvement in accessibility and supply of staple food grains at subsidized price by the government. Farmers have gained substantial economic benefits from cash crops. However, loss of agrobiodiversity implies more risks to local livelihood in the events of downfall in market price/demand of cash crops, termination of supply of staple food grains at subsidized price, pest outbreaks in a cash crop dominated homogeneous landscape and abnormal climate years. Indigenous innovations enabling improvement in farm economy by conserving and/enhancing agrobiodiversity do exist, but are highly localized. The changes in agrobiodiversity are such that soil loss and run-off from the croplands have dramatically increased together with increase in local pressure on forests. As farm productivity is maintained with forest-based inputs, continued depletion of forest resources will result in poor economic returns from agriculture to local people,apart from loss of global benefits from Himalayan forests. Interventions including improvement in traditional manure and management of on-farm trees,participatory development of agroforestry in degraded forest lands and policies favoring economic benefits to local people from non-timber forest products could reduce the risks of decline in agricultural biodiversity and associated threats to livelihoods and Himalayan ecosystems.     

Responses of river runoff to climate change based on nonlinear mixed regression model in Chaohe River Basin of Hebei Province,China

Taking the nonlinear nature of runoff system into account,and combining auto-regression method and multi-regression method,a Nonlinear Mixed Regression Model (NMR) was established to analyze the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on annual river runoff process. The model was calibrated and verified by using BP neural network with observed meteorological and runoff data from Daiying Hydrological Station in the Chaohe River of Hebei Province in 1956–2000. Compared with auto-regression model,linear multi-regression model and linear mixed regression model,NMR can improve forecasting precision remarkably. Therefore,the simulation of climate change scenarios was carried out by NMR. The results show that the nonlinear mixed regression model can simulate annual river runoff well.     

干旱气候环境下小型冲积扇—辫状河沉积特征——以坎苏瓦特剖面紫泥泉子组为例

为了认识准噶尔盆地南缘古近系沉积体系,以盆地南缘坎苏瓦特剖面古近系紫泥泉子组露头为研究对象,通过地球化学元素分析、沉积构造特征观察及地层实测,分析古气候条件、建立岩性序列、总结岩石相类型及其组合特征、明确沉积体系,建立沉积模式。结果表明:坎苏瓦特剖面紫泥泉子组发育一类干旱气候环境下的冲积扇—辫状河沉积体系,受气候影响显著,与潮湿环境下形成的冲积扇—辫状河沉积体系相比,砂地比明显偏低;冲积扇扇体具有规模局限、叠置频繁、隔夹层广泛发育的特点;辫状河具有改道频繁、持续时间短、延伸距离有限的特点。该研究结果对认识准噶尔盆地南缘古近系沉积体系具有参考意义。     

Evaluation of a regional climate model for atmospheric simulation over Arctic river basins

Evaluation on a regional climate model was made with five-month atmospheric simulations over the Arctic river basins. The simulations were performed with a modified mesoscale model, Polar MM5 coupled to the NCAR Land Surface Model （LSM） to illustrate the skill of the coupled model （Polar MM5＋LSM） in simulating atmospheric circulation over the Arctic river basins. Near-surface and upper-air observations were used to verify the simulations. Sensitivity studies between the Polar MM5 and Polar MM5＋LSM simulations revealed that the coupled model could improve the forecast skill for surface variables at some sites. In addition, the extended evaluations of the coupled model simulations on the North American Arctic domain during December 15, 2002 to May 15, 2003 were carried out. The time series plots and statistics of the observations and Polar MM5＋LSM simulations at six stations for near-surface and vertical profiles at 850 hPa and 500 hPa were analyzed. The model was found capable of reproducing the observed atmospheric behavior in both magnitude and variability, especially for temperature and near-surface wind direction.     

Identification and categorization of climate change risks

The scientific evidence that climate is changing due to greenhouse gas emission is now incontestable, which may put many social, biological, and geophysical systems in the world at risk. In this paper, we first identified main risks induced from or aggravated by climate change. Then we categorized them applying a new risk categorization system brought forward by Renn in a framework of International Risk Governance Council. We proposed that ＂uncertainty＂ could be treated as the classification criteria. Based on this, we established a quantitative method with fuzzy set theory, in which ＂confidence＂ and ＂likelihood＂, the main quantitative terms for expressing uncertainties in IPCC, were used as the feature parameters to construct the fuzzy membership functions of four risk types. According to the maximum principle, most climate change risks identified were classified into the appropriate risk types. In the mean time, given that not all the quantitative terms are available, a qualitative approach was also adopted as a complementary classification method. Finally, we get the preliminary results of climate change risk categorization, which might iay the foundation for the future integrated risk management of climate change.     

中国西北地区总云量的气候变化特征

利用中国西北地区174个测站1961～2000年1～12月总云量资料,采用EOF、REOF、趋势分析等方法,分析了40年来西北地区总云量的时空分布特征及其变化规律.结果表明：西北地区的总云量从东南向西北减少,两头多中间少,云量的稳定性从两头向中间增大.因此,青海高原是西北地区总云量多而稳定的地区;常年,东部和高原3～9月云量多而起伏变化小.总云量具有显著持续性的空间范围较大,但持续时间短.主要的持续时间是7～8月;西北地区总云量的变化在空间上存在5个主要异常区域：即西北地区东部区、河西走廊区、北疆区、青海高原南部、塔里木盆地西部.总云量的年际变化总体呈下降趋势.在季节上表现为冬、春、夏西北上升,东南下降;秋季西北下降东南上升.     

Vulnerability of Himalayan springs to climate change and anthropogenic impact: a review

The climate change and unsustainable anthropogenic modification can intensify the vulnerability of the Himalayas. Natural springs are the principal source of potable water security for the Himalayan population. The changes in the trend of precipitation, temperature and glacier melt are expected to impact the quantity and quality of spring water significantly. This review presents an insight to unravel the effects of climate change and land use land cover changes on the spring resources and outline the essential elements of spring hydrology in the Himalayas. The sensitive response of spring flow to the climate has been observed to follows an annual periodic pattern strongly dependent on snowmelt,rainfall, and evapotranspiration. Among all types,Karst aquifers were found to be highly vulnerable. The changes in the forest and urban landscapes are affecting the recharging sites in the headwater region.In the Central Himalayan region(Kosi River basin,Kumaun), the number of perennial springs is decreasing at a rate of three springs year-1, and nonperennial springs are increasing at the rate of one spring year-1. The high concentration of NO3-, Cl-1,SO42-, and coliform counts reported from the spring water evidence a high susceptibility of shallow aquifers to the non-point source of pollution. Future projections indicate high surface-runoff and occurrence of extreme events such as floods, glacial lake outbursts, and landslides can affect the flow and water quality of springs. As the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities are expected to increase with time remarkably, there is an urgent need to promote regional scientific studies on springs targeting hydrogeochemical evolution, vulnerability assessment, recharge area dynamics, and development of springshed management program.     

Assessing the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on vegetation in southwest China

The topography and geomorphology of southwest China are complex, and the intensity of human activities not balanced. The impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on vegetation shows temporal and spatial differences. Therefore, we used normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)to analyze the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on vegetation in four provinces and municipality in the southwest China from 2000 to 2015. The results showed that(1) NDVI increased 0.004–...     

SUSTAINABLE EXPLOITATION AND UTILIZATION OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE INLAND RIVERBASIN OF ARID NORTHWEST CHINA

I.INTRODUCTIONThearidlandinNorthwestChina,richinlight,heat,landandmineralresources,isoneofthebiggestpotentialregionsforeconomicdevelopmentinthefuture.Itischaracterizedbydroughtclimate,scarceprecipitationandthereisnoagriculturewitholltirrigation(Liu,1980).Waterisnotonlythemostvaluablenaturalresources,butalsoveryimportantenvironmentalfactorinthisarea.Theoasesandwaterresourcesforhumansurvivalanddevelopmentaredistributedmainlyintheinlandriverbasins.Atpresentexploitationandutilizationofwater…     

青藏高原植被变化特征及其对气候变化的影响

利用1982-2001年美国国家航天航空局(NASA)的归一化植被指数(NDVI)资料以及55个青藏高原地区气象台站实测的最高气温、最低气温、平均气温和降水资料,初步分析了青藏高原地区各季节植被变化特征及其对气候变化的影响,通过分析发现,各季节青藏高原地区NDVI均以增长为主.特别是高原南部、北部和西部等地区增加明显,高原中东部地区植被有所减少.通过相关分析和台站概率相关分析发现,高原冬季和春季NDVI与后期春季和夏季的最高气温、最低气温、平均气温和降水有较好的正相关关系,但有的表现在相关系数比较显著,有的表现为概率相关较明显.     

Evaluation of potential surface instability using finite element method in Kharsali Village,Yamuna Valley,Northwest Himalaya

Kharsali village, located in the Northwest Himalaya near the confluence of the Yamuna River and Unta Gad, is situated on a thick(150 m) paleolandslide deposit. The village is continuously being eroded at its base by the two rivers. Cracks are noted in most houses while the ancient Shani Temple lying to the south of the village has tilted ~5° towards the northeast. Three slope sections(S-1, S-2, S-3) were modelled and analysed to determine the displacement and shear strain patterns of the slopes. Based on surface failure conditions, potential slope instability of the Kharsali village was evaluated from 2D Finite Element Method(FEM) using Shear Strain Reduction(SSR) analysis in the Phase2 software. Results indicate a critical Stress Reduction Factor(SRF) of 1.5 for the southern edge of the village(S-1) housing the Shani Temple. The development of failure surfaces at its lower portion signifies the propagating, progressive nature of the slope. The S-2 slope section is most vulnerable to slope failure, with a critical SRF of 1.08. This has been inferred by the formation of failure surfaces with displacements of 0.05-0.08 m. The S-3 section in the northern part of the Kharsali shows highest critical SRF of 2.76. The un-metalled road section in the north of the village near S-3 hasdeveloped a failure surface with displacement of 0.003-0.004 m, and a zone of subsidence. The S-3 section is relatively stable, whereas the S-2 section is the most vulnerable portion of the village.     

HUMAN IMPACTS ON THE ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT AND MODERN URBAN CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LOESS PLATEAU

The influence of human activities on environment and climate change is the most conspicuous problem of the Loess Plateau, and it may be divided into two aspects: firstly, the excessive utilization of land by the human race causes the destruction of vegetation, and consequently large expanse of land is under desertification and the characteristics of the ground surface and the water and heat exchange on the ground surface have changed; secondly, the use of coal by industries produces a huge amount of carbon dioxide and trace elements, which enter into the atmosphere to cause air pollution.Data of 1951-1990 are collected from 69 meteorological stations on the Loess Plateau. After analysis, the decadal variations of temperature and rainfall in the last 40 years are obtained as follows: (1) In the arid zone of the north- west of the Loess Plateau, the increase in temperature is the largest. For the past 40 years, the annual mean temperature has increased 0.7-1.0 ℃ . In the semiarid zone of the middle part     

Climate change during the last glacial period on the southeast margin of Badain Jaran Desert,Northwest China

Reconstruction of the desert paleoclimate is important to understand the mechanisms that triggered and/or enhanced climate change.Through optically stimulated luminescence(OSL)dating,grain size,magnetic susceptibility,X-ray powder diffraction(XRD)and geochemical indicators,we provide a welldated record of a sedimentary outcrop on the southeast margin of the Bardain Jaran Desert,Northwest China,during the last glacial period.Four Qz-OSL ages are obtained,41.0±3.4 ka,54.7±4.4 ka,59.5±5.0 ka and 66.8±5.8 ka,corresponding to the depths of 35 cm,70 cm,150 cm and 200 cm respectively.Indicators like grain size,clay content,magnetic susceptibility,XRD and geochemical index(e.g.Sr,Ba,Sr/Ca)jointly indicate abrupt climate changes at the depth of 35 cm(age,ca.41.0 ka)and200 cm(age,ca.67 ka).Namely,the 280 cm sedimentary outcrop perfectly records a warm wet climate stage,corresponding to the late Marine Isotope Stages(MIS)4 to the early MIS 3.Besides,there is a trend of grain size increase after around 40ka BP,which is most likely a signal of wind strength change.Our research supports that enhancing Siberian High pressure system during the late MIS 3played a key role in NW East Asia climate evolution.     

Development of community-based landslide early warning system in the earthquake-affected areas of Nepal Himalaya

In the central Nepal Himalaya, landslides form the major natural hazards annually resulting in many casualties and damage. Structural as well as non-structural measures are in place to minimize the risk of landslide hazard. To reduce the landslide risk,a Landslide Early Warning System(LEWS) as a nonstructural measure has been piloted at Sundrawati village(Kalinchowk rural municipality, Dolakha district) to identify its effectiveness. Intensive discussions with stakeholders, aided by landslide susceptibility map, resulted in a better understanding of surface dynamics and the relationship between rainfall and surface movement. This led to the development of a LEWS comprised of extensometers,soil moisture sensors, rain gauge stations, and solar panels as an energy source that blows siren receiving signals via a micro-controller and interfacing circuit.The data generated through the system is transmitted via a Global System for Mobile Communications(GSM) network to responsible organizations in realtime to circulate the warning to local residents. This LEWS is user-friendly and can be easily operated by a community. The successful pilot early warning system has saved 495 people from 117 households in August 2018.However,landslide monitoring and dissemination of warning information remains a complex process where technical and communications skill should work closely together.     

Analysis of recent climate change over the Arctic using ERA-Interim reanalysis data

This study investigates recent climate change over the Arctic and its link to the mid-latitudes using the ERA-Interim global atmospheric reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast （ECMWF）. Since 1979, sub- stantial surface warming, associated with the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, has occurred over the Arctic. The great- est warming in winter has taken place offshore in the Kara-Barents Sea, and is associated with the increase in turbulent heat fluxes from the marginal ice zone. In contrast to the marked warming over the Arctic Ocean in winter, substantial cooling appears over Siberia and eastern Asia, linked to the reduction of Arctic sea ice during the freezing season （September-March）. However, in summer, very little change is observed in surface air temperature over the Arctic because increased radiative heat melts the sea ice and the amount of turbulent heat gain from the ocean is relatively small. The heat stored in the upper ocean mixed layer in summer with the opening of the Arctic Ocean is released back to the atmosphere as turbulent heat fluxes during the autumn and through to the following spring. This warming of the Arctic and the reduced sea ice amplifies surface cooling over Siberia and eastern Asia in winter.