新疆霍城地区树轮年表的建立及气候意义

通过对霍城地区5个树轮年表多项统计特征参数的对比,表明差值树轮年表对气候变化研究具有应用潜力.在5个差值树轮年表中,阿里比萨依和霍尔果斯年表包含了较多的气候信息.将5个差值树轮年表与附近的霍城和霍尔果斯气象站1960-2005年逐月降水和气温资料进行相关普查.结果发现:2个低海拔树轮差值年表的平均年表与2站当年5月降水呈正相关,且相关性好;而3个上树线树轮差值年表的平均年表与2站上年12月的平均气温呈正相关,且相关性好,其正相关均具有明显的树木生理学意义.对代表性较好的阿里比萨依差值树轮年表进行31年滑动平均发现,其年轮指数具有6高5低的阶段性变化,其变化与伊犁河1818-1990年的丰枯变化具有较好的一致性.     

中国东天山北坡40年来水热组合变化与古气候的关系

利用东天山北坡山区和平原共6个气象站40年来的降水量及气温记录,对各季、年的水热组合状况及其变化进行了统计分析,并与新疆5 000 aB P(中晚全新世)以来的水热组合主要规律进行了对比讨论.得到的基本结论为:(1) 从变化趋势看,除1987年相对暖湿(平原和秋冬两季表现尤其明显)外,40年来其它时段基本以暖干气候为主,也有冷湿气候出现;(2) 该结果与新疆历史时期百年尺度的水热组合变化规律存在一定的差异;(3)在一定程度上体现了中晚全新世以来,新疆气候以冷湿、暖干为主的水热组合规律只能代表百年尺度的变化,而年际尺度的变化规律还需要更多更深入地研究.     

新疆天山地区日照时数的气候特征

基于1961-2008年新疆天山地区23站日照时数的逐日资料,使用一元线性方程和M-K检验等统计方法,分析天山地区日照时数的时空变化特征。结果表明：①日照时数的气候分布存在明显的空间差异,呈东多西少,南多北少的分布特征。②区域平均日照时数均呈减少趋势,尤其在冬季和夏季。③四季除春季外日照时数均存在明显的年代际变化特征,...     

天山奎屯哈希勒根51号冰川变化及其对气候的响应

哈希勒根51号冰川位于新疆奎屯市以南的天山依连哈比尔尕山北坡,即奎屯河上游支流哈希勒根河源区。继1998年对冰川末端和运动速度的首次观测之后,相继开展了多次重复测量,完成了冰川面积测量和首次雷达厚度测量。结合冰川实测资料和已有相关研究,对自20世纪60年代以来的变化特征进行了详细分析,结果表明：1964-2006年哈希勒根51号冰川面积共减小了0.123 km2,年平均退缩率约为0.19%,相比低于天山地区的整体水平（0.31%）。冰川末端累计退缩84.51 m,年平均退缩率为2.01 m。对于冰川运动速度,1999-2006年整体偏低,各流速点的年际变化较小,且略微有下降的趋势;7 a间物质平衡年际变化较小,整体表现出沿海拔高度增加而增加的趋势。1964-2010年冰川厚度减薄了约10 m,年均变化率约为0.22 m。与天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川相比,整体消融趋势稍弱。     

天山北坡经济带产业聚集与空间结构研究

产业聚集是区域经济发展中的必然过程和显著特点,产业空间结构则是在其过程中所形成的地域布局格局。天山北坡经济带作为重点经济开发区域,由于其自然条件与资源禀赋、区位交通与地缘优势、区域发展战略与产业布局、产业结构与产业分工调整等主要因素作用,发生了较为明显的产业聚集现象,演化发展成"一轴四区"的产业空间结构,产业地域分工明确。本文通过分析,提出了天山北坡经济带产业发展与调整的战略目标、思路和方向,以及产业聚集与城镇化发展、资源开发和绿洲生态环境相关问题的思考。     

全球变暖背景下天山地区近地面水汽变化研究

利用天山地区44个站1961-2009年水汽压数据,采用线性趋势估计、距平分析、Mann-Kendall趋势统计突变检验和功率谱等方法,分析天山地区近地面水汽变化及其与区域气候变化的关系。结果表明：天山地区近49 a来水汽总体呈增多趋势,年和四季水汽变化具有年际和年代际差异,最大增多趋势均出现在20世纪90年代中后期至21世纪初,最小值出现在70年代中后期和80年代中期,最大值出现在21世纪初。突变和周期分析得出,水汽年变化与西北地区气候变化趋势具有明显一致性。年降水变化与水汽相关最高,温度和青藏高原指数次之,其他因子相关一般。     

Monitoring and analysis of snow cover change in an alpine mountainous area in the Tianshan Mountains,China

Estimating the snow cover change in alpine mountainous areas(in which meteorological stations are typically lacking) is crucial for managing local water resources and constitutes the first step in evaluating the contribution of snowmelt to runoff and the water cycle. In this paper, taking the Jingou River Basin on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, China as an example, we combined a new moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer(MODIS) snow cover extent product over China spanning ...     

天山北坡山区流域融雪径流模拟研究

天山北坡山区流域资料稀缺,融雪径流模拟比较困难。以天山北坡的乌鲁木齐河、玛纳斯河和奎屯河流域为例,利用水文气象资料和冰雪遥感数据,建立流域融雪径流SRM模型,以2007年3—8月为模拟校准期,2005年和2006年3—8月为模拟检验期,模拟3个资料稀缺山区流域融雪日径流,检验模拟结果和模型的有效性,评价SRM模型在资料稀缺流域的适用性。结果表明:3个流域SRM模型融雪径流模拟具有比较好的模拟效果。在模拟校准期间,3个流域R2平均值为0.85,D_V平均值为9.42%,模拟精度比较高;在模拟检校期,2006年3个流域R~2平均值为0.72,D_V平均值为13.3%,2005年R~2平均值为0.78,D_V平均值为4.85%,表明3个流域SRM模型的参数估算合理,建立的SRM模型是有效的,SRM模型在天山北坡的资料稀缺山区流域融雪径流模拟中具有其适用性。     

近20 a中国天山东段典型冰川变化及其气候响应

冰川作为重要的淡水资源的存储体,也是气候变化的敏感"指示器"。在干旱半干旱区,冰川变化对人们的生产、生活和生态产生重要的影响。本文基于1990—2015年Landsat TM及ETM+遥感影像数据,利用雪盖指数法(NDSI)和阈值法,分析博格达峰及喀尔力克山的冰川面积变化,结合长时间序列的气温、降水数据分析天山东段典型冰川的气候响应。结果表明:(1)博格达峰与喀尔力克山的冰川均呈现退缩趋势,与气温和降水的变化趋势一致。(2)博格达峰和喀尔力克山冰川面积变化在东南坡向有波动增加趋势,其他坡向则未出现该现象。(3)从两个冰川不同坡向的面积和面积重心分布变化分析,博格达峰冰川面积在东坡方向退缩速率最大,而喀尔力克山的冰川在东北坡方向退缩速率最大。(4)根据栅格气象资料分析,近四五十年博格达地区冰川面积退缩速率大于喀尔力克山地区,并且博格达峰降水量的增加对冰川的退缩起到的作用不大,喀尔力克山的降水量对冰川面积的退缩起到了一定的抑制作用。(5)通过对博格达峰地区和喀尔力克山地区不同坡向的冰川面积与年均气温、年均降水量进行Person相关性分析,博格达峰地区、喀尔力克山地区各个坡向的冰川面积变化与降水相关系数均很小。但博格达峰地区北、东北、东南坡向的冰川面积与区域气温变化相关系数较高,喀尔力克山地区东南、东北坡向的冰川面积与区域气温的相关系数高且显著性明显。分析其原因,在年内尺度上,博格达峰地区、喀尔力克山地区是湿季气温升高所致,干湿两季降水量的增多,并没有使得冰川整体的退缩有所减缓。     

WRF模式在天山地区模拟能力的敏感性评估

为探寻天山地区气候模拟WRF(weather research and forecasting)模式中最优参数化方案组合,针对云微物理方案(MIC)、积云对流方案(CS)、行星边界层/近地面层方案(PBL/SLS)、陆面过程方案(LSM)以及长短波辐射方案(LSW)设计了6组季节尺度物理参数化方案敏感性试验,模拟时间设为2014-11-28-2015-12-01。利用地面气象站观测数据和GPM(global precipitation measurement)卫星降水数据(R≥0.6),对模式模拟的日最高、最低气温及降水进行验证。结果表明:WRF模式对气温的模拟效果较好,且对日最高气温(0.8相似文献   

1960-2009年中国天山现代冰川末端变化特征

基于冰川定位观测、野外考察、航空摄影、遥感影像和地形图分析方法,研究了1960-2009年中国天山8条冰川末端变化特征。结果表明：1960-2009年,在天山地区气温与降水呈上升趋势的背景下,8条冰川均处于退缩状态,退缩速率由西向东逐渐减缓,其变化幅度因气候环境、地理位置、冰川规模和冰川形态等的不同而存在明显的区域性与阶段性差异。其中,乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川1962-1973年冰川末端退缩速率为5.96 m•a^-1,1973-1980年为3.28 m•a^-1,1980-1993年为3.93 m•a^-1,在1993年完全分离成东、西两支独立的冰川;博格达峰四工河4号冰川末端1962-1981年退缩速率为6 m•a^-1,1981-2006年为8.9 m•a^-1,2006-2009年为13.3 m•a^-1。表碛覆盖的青冰滩72号冰川和74号冰川末端1964-2009年退缩速率分别为41 m•a^-1和30 m•a^-1,远较无表碛覆盖的庙儿沟平顶冰川退缩迅速（1972-2007年冰川末端退缩速率为2.32 m•a^-1）。表面特征（表碛）亦是造成冰川变化差异的一个主要原因。     

新疆伊犁地区夏季平均最高气温的重建和分析

根据采自伊犁地区天山的树木年轮样本,建立了该地区的树轮年表。通过单相关普查发现,自回归树轮年表序列与夏季(6~8月)的平均最高气温呈明显的负相关关系。并且具有明确的树木生理学意义。利用新源上限(XNAUt 1)、巩留下限(GUt 1)和特克斯上限(TUt 1)3个自回归树轮年表序列,可较好地重建伊犁天山东部在该时段的月平均最高气温。经交叉检验可知,所得重建方程是稳定可靠的,重建的温度序列是可信的。通过分析发现:伊犁天山东部300年来夏季月平均最高气温大致经历了8个偏暖阶段和8个偏冷阶段;具有2.9,3.4,4,49.5,58,59,68年的变化准周期;存在5次气温突变:1729-1733年、1867-1871年、1929-1934年前后气温由高向低突变;1841-1846年、1903-1906年前后气温由低向高突变。     

Simulating hydrological responses to climate change using dynamic and statistical downscaling methods: a case study in the Kaidu River Basin,Xinjiang, China

Climate change may affect water resources by altering various processes in natural ecosystems. Dynamic and statistical downscaling methods are commonly used to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources. Objectively, both methods have their own advantages and disadvantages. In the present study, we assessed the impacts of climate change on water resources during the future periods (2020-2029 and 2040-2049) in the upper reaches of the Kaidu River Basin, Xinjiang, China, and discussed the uncertainties in the research processes by integrating dynamic and statistical downscaling methods (regional climate models (RCMs) and general circulation modes (GCMs)) and utilizing these outputs. The reference period for this study is 1990-1999. The climate change trend is represented by three bias-corrected RCMs (i.e., Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA), Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4), and Seoul National University Meso-scale Model version 5 (SUN-MM5)) and an ensemble of GCMs on the basis of delta change method under two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We applied the hydrological SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model which uses the RCMs/GCMs outputs as input to analyze the impacts of climate change on the stream flow and peak flow of the upper reaches of the Kaidu River Basin. The simulation of climate factors under future scenarios indicates that both temperature and precipitation in the study area will increase in the future compared with the reference period, with the largest increase of annual mean temperature and largest percentage increase of mean annual precipitation being of 2.4°C and 38.4%, respectively. Based on the results from bias correction of climate model outputs, we conclude that the accuracy of RCM (regional climate model) simulation is much better for temperature than for precipitation. The percentage increase in precipitation simulated by the three RCMs is generally higher than that simulated by the ensemble of GCMs. As for the changes in seasonal precipitation, RCMs exhibit a large percentage increase in seasonal precipitation in the wet season, while the ensemble of GCMs shows a large percentage increase in the dry season. Most of the hydrological simulations indicate that the total stream flow will decrease in the future due to the increase of evaporation, and the maximum percentage decrease can reach up to 22.3%. The possibility of peak flow increasing in the future is expected to higher than 99%. These results indicate that less water is likely to be available in the upper reaches of the Kaidu River Basin in the future, and that the temporal distribution of flow may become more concentrated.     

天山南北气候变化特征比较

根据新疆天山南北典型气象站1951～2008年气温、降水资料,运用回归分析和趋势分析,比较天山南北近58年的气候变化趋势和特征,结果表明：近58年来,天山北部气候总体呈暖湿趋势,年平均气温均升高,年降水量也不断增加;天山南部气候总体呈暖湿趋势,各站点气候因地而异,表现出不同的变化趋势和特征。总体来说,新疆气候趋于暖湿变...     

Interactions between water-land resources and oasis urban development at the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains,Xinjiang,China

Urban development in arid and semi-arid regions is largely constrained by fragile physical environments.The characteristics of an urban settlement are different from those in other regions of China.This paper analyses the coupling characteristics and spatio-temporal variations for oasis urban development and water-land resources at the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains by principal component analysis and a coupling degree model.The result shows that the degree and change in regional use of water and land resources are different among the studied cities/counties during their development.The built-up areas of these cities/counties have changed little with increasing populations and urbanization levels,which well reflects that the urban development in arid and semi-arid regions is limited by oasis areas.Per capita amount of water supplied,however,presented a trend of slowed growth with increasing levels of urbanization.Water consumption gradually increased with urban development and the improvement of people's living standards,accompanied by enhanced water use efficiency. The level of urbanization can be assessed through the coupling degree between oasis urban development and the use of water and land resources.A high coupling degree represents a high level of comprehensive urban development and use of water-land resources.Alternatively,a low coupling degree denotes a low level of urban development and water-land resource use.     

近23年来北天山冰川面积变化对气候的响应

利用1989、1998、2011年的Landsat TM、ETM+遥感影像为数据源,运用比值阈值法(b3/b5)结合目视解译方法,提取了北天山3个时段的冰川边界,并在地理信息系统技术支持下分析了该区域冰川的变化情况。研究表明:北天山整体变化幅度较大,冰川表现为萎缩的趋势,近23年来冰川面积减小了14.93%。分析认为,较大的变化率是由于研究区面积<1km2的冰川数量占总数的比重较大(近80%)造成的。同时分析了北天山冰川空间结构特征,<0.5km2面积的冰川对气候变化最为敏感,消融率最高,1～5km2面积的冰川对消融总量贡献比例最大。依据分形理论对未来冰川变化进行初步预测,分析认为研究区冰川的消融率仍保持比较高的状态。     

近300 a来天山中西部降水与太阳活动的小波分析

基于小波变换方法,分析1700年以来重建的天山中西部降水(干湿)和太阳黑子相对数变化序列.结果显示:降水(干湿)变化存在80 ～100 a、50～ 60 a、准30 a、准10 a及低于10 a的周期变化,前3个主周期为准50 a、30 a和10 a;太阳黑子存在90 ～ 100 a、准50 a和准10 a的周期变化,前3个主周期为准10a、100 a和50 a;这些周期的强度随着时间变化而不同.交叉小波显示,两者在准10 a尺度上关联性显著;小波相干谱显示,两者在2～10a尺度上联系密切,但时段分散;全部时段的准10a、50 a主周期上,两者呈显著正相关,但期间存在负相关阶段,说明太阳活动对天山中西部降水(干湿)变化影响复杂.     

An analysis of oasis stability in arid areas: a case study in the northern slope areas of the Tianshan Mountains

This paper discusses oasis stability at regional scale with a case study in the northern slope areas of the Tianshan Mountains (NSTM). The results showed certain significant aspects. (1) As long as water resources in the oasis keep stable and their utilization efficiency can be maintained or gradually increased, the primary productivity could be continuously increased and the natural primary productivity keeped relatively stable. In this case, it is considered that the oasis is stable and its sustainable development can be achieved at regional scale. (2) Considering the availability of water resources in the oases, the oases on the alluvial-diluvial fans are highly stable. In the alluvial plain downstream of the groundwater overflowing zones the oases are moderately stable and in the lacustrine deltas or dry lacustrine deltas the oases are lowly stable. (3) Enlargement of oases and the increase of water resources and vegetation coverage in the oasis will certainly enhance the "cold-island effect" of the oasis and increase the stability of oases.     

Response of ecosystem service value to land use/cover change in the northern slope economic belt of the Tianshan Mountains,Xinjiang, China

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is becoming more and more frequent and extensive as a result of human activities, and is expected to have a major impact on human welfare by altering ecosystem service value (ESV). In this study, we utilized remote sensing images and statistical data to explore the spatial-temporal changes of land use/cover types and ESV in the northern slope economic belt of the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China from 1975 to 2018. During the study period, LUCC in the study region varied significantly. Except grassland and unused land, all the other land use/cover types (cultivated land, forestland, waterbody, and construction land) increased in areas. From 1975 to 2018, the spatial-temporal variations in ESV were also pronounced. The total ESV decreased by 4.00×10⁸ CNY, which was primarily due to the reductions in the areas of grassland and unused land. Waterbody had a much higher ESV than the other land use/cover types. Ultimately, understanding the impact of LUCC on ESV and the interactions among ESV of different land use/cover types will help improve existing land use policies and provide scientific basis for developing new conservation strategies for ecologically fragile areas.     

气候变化对天山山区高寒盆地水资源变化的影响——以巴音布鲁克盆地为例

巴音布鲁克盆地河流的径流演变过程受到气候变化和人类活动的双重影响。利用气候敏感法和水量平衡法,定量分析变化期气候变化对径流的影响。结果表明:巴音布鲁克盆地变化期(1994—2010年)的年径流量比基准期(1960—1993年)增加了27.29%,其中约66.52%是由气候变化引起的。气候变化对径流量影响的主导因素是降水量的变化,降水量变化对巴音布鲁克盆地径流增加的贡献率为62.67%,而受温度升高引起冰川融水量增加对径流量的影响为21.28%,人类活动对地表径流的影响为12.2%,其中还包括盆地土壤水量变化的影响。