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1.
The lack of high resolution precipitation data has posed great challenges to the study and management of extreme rainfall events. Satellite-based rainfall products with large areal coverage provide a potential alternative source of data where in situ measurements are not available. However, the mismatch in scale between these products and model requirements has limited their application and demonstrates that satellite data must be downscaled before being used. This study developed a statistical spatial downscaling scheme based on the relationships between precipitation and related environmental factors such as local topography and pre-storm meteorological conditions. The method was applied to disaggregate the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 products, which have a resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°, to 1 × 1 km gridded rainfall fields. The TRMM datasets in accord with six rainstorm events in the Xiao River basin were used to validate the effectiveness of this approach. The downscaled precipitation data were compared with ground observations and exhibited good agreement with r2 values ranging from 0.612 to 0.838. In addition, the proposed approach provided better results than the conventional spline and kriging interpolation methods, indicating its promise in the management of extreme rainfall events. The uncertainties in the final results and the implications for further study were discussed, and the needs for additional rigorous investigations of the rainfall physical process prior to institutionalizing the use of satellite data were highlighted.  相似文献   

2.
The hydroclimatology of the Peruvian Amazon–Andes basin (PAB) which surface corresponding to 7% of the Amazon basin is still poorly documented. We propose here an extended and original analysis of the temporal evolution of monthly rainfall, mean temperature (Tmean), maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) time series over two PABs (Huallaga and Ucayali) over the last 40 years. This analysis is based on a new and more complete database that includes 77 weather stations over the 1965–2007 period, and we focus our attention on both annual and seasonal meteorological time series. A positive significant trend in mean temperature of 0.09 °C per decade is detected over the region with similar values in the Andes and rainforest when considering average data. However, a high percentage of stations with significant Tmean positive trends are located over the Andes region. Finally, changes in the mean values occurred earlier in Tmax (during the 1970s) than in Tmin (during the 1980s). In the PAB, there is neither trend nor mean change in rainfall during the 1965–2007 period. However, annual, summer and autumn rainfall in the southern Andes presents an important interannual variability that is associated with the sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic Ocean while there are limited relationships between rainfall and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. On the contrary, the interannual temperature variability is mainly related to ENSO events. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
The radar reflectivity (Z)–rain intensity (R) relationship fluctuates in both temporal and spatial scales. The dynamic factor analysis (DFA) and min/max autocorrelation factor analysis (MAFA) was specifically designed for considering various space–time integrations of gauge rainfall and radar reflectivity. We detect representative radar reflectivity observed around rainfall stations that were most responsible for rainfall intensity and identify the crucial patterns of the radar reflectivity in the Kaoping River watershed during Typhoon Morakot. Result shows that the MAFA and DFA can reduce the uncertainty of the dynamic Z‐R relationship effectively. The MAFA separates an entire area into two subareas (southern and northern areas) according to the relationships between the radar reflectivity and min/max autocorrelation factor (MAF) axes. For both areas, the different extents of temporal rainfall correlated with the radar reflectivity were determined using DFA. Especially in the northern area, the radar reflectivity was significantly related to the rainfall intensity for most stations without mountain blockage. Mountain blockages associated with the presence of terrain and wind direction were inferred the major factors that affected the relationship between radar reflectivity and rainfall intensity in the mountainous watershed. Further study can consider the terrain effect and meteorological information, such as wind speed and direction in the DFA model, with the dominant radar reflectivity to estimate the temporal rainfall patterns. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
The accurate measurement of precipitation is essential to understanding regional hydrological processes and hydrological cycling. Quantification of precipitation over remote regions such as the Tibetan Plateau is highly unreliable because of the scarcity of rain gauges. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of the satellite precipitation product of tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) 3B42 v7 at daily, weekly, monthly, and seasonal scales. Comparison between TRMM grid precipitation and point‐based rain gauge precipitation was conducted using nearest neighbour and bilinear weighted interpolation methods. The results showed that the TRMM product could not capture daily precipitation well due to some rainfall events being missed at short time scales but provided reasonably good precipitation data at weekly, monthly, and seasonal scales. TRMM tended to underestimate the precipitation of small rainfall events (less than 1 mm/day), while it overestimated the precipitation of large rainfall events (greater than 20 mm/day). Consequently, TRMM showed better performance in the summer monsoon season than in the winter season. Through comparison, it was also found that the bilinear weighted interpolation method performs better than the nearest neighbour method in TRMM precipitation extraction.  相似文献   

5.
The foF2 data obtained at Alma-Ata and Observatorio Del Ebro during the winter/spring of 2003–2004 are analyzed to compare and investigate the upper ionosphere variability at the two selected sites. The geomagnetic activity and the middle stratosphere dynamics, involving planetary wave (PW) activity, are analyzed for understanding the physical conditions and processes that can explain the observed ionospheric variability. By applying the same method of wavelet analysis to the data sets and doing a direct comparison of the results, two types of foF2 disturbances were found. The first type is 2–7-day oscillations, which appeared during periods of increased geomagnetic activity. The second type is oscillations arising from PW activity in the lower atmosphere. These consist of (1) 6–11-day oscillations arising from PW activity in lower atmospheric regions developed during the final stratosphere warming and indicating the timing of the transition from the winter to the summer circulation and (2) 9–13-day and 8–10-day oscillations mostly during the quiet level of geomagnetic activity, indicating a likely close relation with those in the geopotential height at the 1 hPa level for westward-propagating waves at 40°N, which strengthened during stratosphere warming events in January 2004. The time delay of the oscillations in the ΔfoF2 with respect to those in the geopotential height is about 10 days and it seems that the assumed ionosphere response can occur under weakened eastward zonal wind or relatively weak westward zonal wind (V<30 m s−1).  相似文献   

6.
The spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in the desert region of China (DRC) from 1951 to 2005 were investigated using a rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF), the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and the Mann–Kendall trend test method (M‐K method). In addition, the association between variation patterns of precipitation and large‐scale circulation were also explored using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data. The results indicated that the spatial pattern of precipitation was primarily the local climate effect significant type, with the first three EOFs explaining a total of 55·3% of the variance, and the large‐scale climate system effect type, which explained 9·8% of the variance. Prior to the 1970s, the East Asian summer monsoon was stronger, which resulted in abundant precipitation in the Inner Mongolia region. Conversely, the climate of the Xinjiang region was controlled by westerly circulation and had lower precipitation. However, this situation has been reversed since the 1980s. It is predicted that precipitation will decrease by 15–40 and 0–10 mm/year in the Inner Mongolia plateau and southern Xinjiang, respectively, whereas it will likely increase by 10–40 mm/year in northern Xinjiang. Additionally, 58–62% of the annual rainfall occurred during summer in the DRC, with precipitation increasing during spring and summer and decreasing in winter. The intra‐annual precipitation is becoming uniform, but the inter‐annual variability in precipitation has been increasing in the western portions of the DRC. The probability of precipitation during the study period increased by 30% and 22·2% in the extreme‐arid zones and arid zones, respectively. Conversely, the probability of precipitation during the study period decreased by 18·5% and 37·5% in the semi‐arid zones and semi‐wet zones, respectively. It is predicted that the northwest portion of the DRC will become warmer and wetter, while the central portion will become warmer and drier and the northeast portion will be subjected to drought. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Satellite‐based and reanalysis quantitative precipitation estimates are attractive for hydrologic prediction or forecasting and reliable water resources management, especially for ungauged regions. This study evaluates three widely used global high‐resolution precipitation products [Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks‐Climate Data Record (PERSIANN‐CDR), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 Version 7 (TRMM 3B42V7), and National Centers for Environment Prediction‐Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP‐CFSR)] against gauge observations with seven statistical indices over two humid regions in China. Furthermore, the study investigates whether the three precipitation products can be reliably utilized as inputs in Soil and Water Assessment Tool, a semi‐distributed hydrological model, to simulate streamflows. Results show that the precipitation estimates derived from TRMM 3B42V7 outperform the other two products with the smallest errors and bias, and highest correlation at monthly scale, which is followed by PERSIANN‐CDR and NCEP‐CFSR in this rank. However, the superiority of TRMM 3B42V7 in errors, bias, and correlations is not warranted at daily scale. PERSIANN‐CDR and 3B42V7 present encouraging potential for streamflow prediction at daily and monthly scale respectively over the two humid regions, whilst the performance of NCEP‐CFSR for hydrological applications varies from basin to basin. Simulations forced with 3B42V7 are the best among the three precipitation products in capturing daily measured streamflows, whilst PERSIANN‐CDR‐driven simulations underestimate high streamflows and high streamflow simulations driven by NCEP‐CFSR mostly are overestimated significantly. In terms of extreme events analysis, PERSIANN‐CDR often underestimates the extreme precipitation, so do extreme streamflow simulations forced with it. NCEP‐CFSR performs just the reverse, compared with PERSIANN‐CDR. The performance pattern of TRMM 3B42V7 on extremes is not certain, with coexisting underestimation and overestimation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Since the March–April 1982 eruption of El Chichòn volcano, intense hydrothermal activity has characterised the 1-km-wide summit crater. This mainly consists of mud and boiling pools, fumaroles, which are mainly located in the northwestern bank of the crater lake. During the period 1998–2000, hot springs and fumaroles discharging inside the crater and from the southeastern outer flank (Agua Caliente) were collected for chemical analyses. The observed chemical fluctuations suggest that the physico-chemical boundary conditions regulating the thermodynamic equilibria of the deep rock/fluid interactions have changed with time. The chemical composition of the lake water, characterised in the period 1983–1997 by high Na+, Cl, Ca2+ and SO42− contents, experienced a dramatic change in 1998–1999, turning from a Na+–Cl- to a Ca2+–SO42−-rich composition. In June 2000, a relatively sharp increase in Na+ and Cl contents was observed. At the same time, SO2/H2S ratios and H2 and CO contents in most gas discharges increased with respect to the previous two years of observations, suggesting either a new input of deep-seated fluids or local variations of the more surficial hydrothermal system. Migration of gas manifestations, enhanced number of emission spots and variations in both gas discharge flux and outlet temperatures of the main fluid manifestations were also recorded. The magmatic-hydrothermal system of El Chichòn is probably related to interaction processes between a deep magmatic source and a surficial cold aquifer; an important role may also be played by the interaction of the deep fluids with the volcanic rocks and the sedimentary (limestone and evaporites) basement. The chemical and physical changes recorded in 1998–2000 were possibly due to variations in the permeability of the conduit system feeding the fluid discharges at surface, as testified by the migration of gas and water emanations. Two different scenarios can be put forward for the volcanic evolution of El Chichòn: (1) build-up of an infra-crater dome that may imply a future eruption in terms of tens to hundreds of years; (2) minor phreatic–phreatomagmatic events whose prediction and timing is more difficult to constrain. This suggests that, unlike the diminished volcanic activity at El Chichòn after the 1982 paroxistic event, the volcano-hydrothermal fluid discharges need to be more constantly monitored with regular and more frequent geochemical sampling and, at the same time, a permanent network of seismic stations should be installed.  相似文献   

9.
High‐resolution measurements of rainfall, water level, pH, conductivity, temperature and carbonate chemistry parameters of groundwater at two adjacent locations within the peak cluster karst of the Guilin Karst Experimental Site in Guangxi Province, China, were made with different types of multiparameter sonde. The data were stored using data loggers recording with 2 min or 15 min resolution. Waters from a large, perennial spring represent the exit for the aquifer's conduit flow, and a nearby well measures water in the conduit‐adjacent, fractured media. During flood pulses, the pH of the conduit flow water rises as the conductivity falls. In contrast, and at the same time, the pH of groundwater in the fractures drops, as conductivity rises. As Ca2+ and HCO3? were the dominant (>90%) ions, we developed linear relationships (both r2 > 0·91) between conductivity and those ions, respectively, and in turn calculated variations in the calcite saturation index (SIC) and CO2 partial pressure (P) of water during flood pulses. Results indicate that the P of fracture water during flood periods is higher than that at lower flows, and its SIC is lower. Simultaneously, P of conduit water during the flood period is lower than that at lower flows, and its SIC also is lower. From these results we conclude that at least two key processes are controlling hydrochemical variations during flood periods: (i) dilution by precipitation and (ii) water–rock–gas interactions. To explain hydrochemical variations in the fracture water, the water–rock–gas interactions may be more important. For example, during flood periods, soil gas with high CO2 concentrations dissolves in water and enters the fracture system, the water, which in turn has become more highly undersaturated, dissolves more limestone, and the conductivity increases. Dilution of rainfall is more important in controlling hydrochemical variations of conduit water, because rainfall with higher pH (in this area apparently owing to interaction with limestone dust in the lower atmosphere) and low conductivity travels through the conduit system rapidly. These results illustrate that to understand the hydrochemical variations in karst systems, considering only water–rock interactions is not sufficient, and the variable effects of CO2 on the system should be evaluated. Consideration of water–rock–gas interactions is thus a must in understanding variations in karst hydrochemistry. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
A laboratory inorganic carbonate precipitation experiment at high pH of 8.96 to 9.34 was conducted, and the boron isotopic fractionations of the precipitated carbonate were measured. The data show that boron isotopic fractionation factors (αcarb-3) between carbonate and B(OH)3 in seawater range 0.937 and 0.965, with an average value of 0.953. Our results together with those reported by Sanyal and collaborators show that the αcarb-3 values between carbonate and B(OH)3 in solution are not constant but are negatively correlated with the pH of seawater. The measured boron isotopic compositions of carbonate precipitation (δ11Bcarb) do not exactly lie on the best-fit theoretical δ11B4-pH curves and neither do they exactly parallel any theoretical δ11B4-pH curves. Therefore, it is reasonable to argue that a changeable proportion of B(OH)3 with pH of seawater should also be incorporated into carbonate except for the dominant incorporation of B(OH)4 in carbonate. Hence, in the reconstruction of the paleo-pH of seawater from boron isotopes in marine biogenic carbonates, the use of theoretical boron isotopic fractionation factor (α4−3) between B(OH)4 and B(OH)3 is not suitable. Instead, an empirical equation should be established. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 40573013 and 40776071), State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No SKLLQG0502) and State Key Laboratory of Environmental Geochemistry, Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences  相似文献   

11.
A laboratory inorganic carbonate precipitation experiment at high pH of 8.96 to 9.34 was conducted, and the boron isotopic fractionations of the precipitated carbonate were measured. The data show that boron isotopic fractionation factors (αcarb-3) between carbonate and B(OH)3 in seawater range 0.937 and 0.965, with an average value of 0.953. Our results together with those reported by Sanyal and collabo-rators show that the αcarb-3 values between carbonate and B(OH)3 in solution are not constant but are negatively correlated with the pH of seawater. The measured boron isotopic compositions of carbonate precipitation (δ11Bcarb) do not exactly lie on the best-fit theoretical δ 11B4-pH curves and neither do they exactly parallel any theoretical δ 11B4-pH curves. Therefore, it is reasonable to argue that a changeable proportion of B(OH)3 with pH of seawater should also be incorporated into carbonate except for the dominant incorporation of B(OH)4- in carbonate . Hence, in the reconstruction of the paleo-pH of sea-water from boron isotopes in marine biogenic carbonates, the use of theoretical boron isotopic frac-tionation factor (α4-3) between B(OH)4- and B(OH)3 is not suitable. Instead, an empirical equation should be established.  相似文献   

12.
Jia Liu  Michaela Bray  Dawei Han 《水文研究》2013,27(25):3627-3640
The mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model is gaining popularity among the hydrometeorological community in providing high‐resolution rainfall forecasts at the catchment scale. Although the performance of the model has been verified in capturing the physical processes of severe storm events, the modelling accuracy is negatively affected by significant errors in the initial conditions used to drive the model. Several meteorological investigations have shown that the assimilation of real‐time observations, especially the radar data can help improve the accuracy of the rainfall predictions given by mesoscale NWP models. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of data assimilation for hydrological applications at the catchment scale. Radar reflectivity together with surface and upper‐air meteorological observations is assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using the three‐dimensional variational data‐assimilation technique. Improvement of the rainfall accumulation and its temporal variation after data assimilation is examined for four storm events in the Brue catchment (135.2 km2) located in southwest England. The storm events are selected with different rainfall distributions in space and time. It is found that the rainfall improvement is most obvious for the events with one‐dimensional evenness in either space or time. The effect of data assimilation is even more significant in the innermost domain which has the finest spatial resolution. However, for the events with two‐dimensional unevenness of rainfall, i.e. the rainfall is concentrated in a small area and in a short time period, the effect of data assimilation is not ideal. WRF fails in capturing the whole process of the highly convective storm with densely concentrated rainfall in a small area and a short time period. A shortened assimilation time interval together with more efficient utilisation of the weather radar data might help improve the effectiveness of data assimilation in such cases. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
在相同观测条件下,对比分析洛阳地震台观测井FD-105K型与SD-3B型模拟水氡仪同期观测资料,结果显示,实际观测变化趋势一致,数据动态变化类似。一阶差分分析表明,FD-105K仪观测数据整体波动性较SD-3B仪小,且观测质量较优;一致性检验(相关系数分析、F检验、t检验)结果表明,FD-105K和SD-3B仪观测数据相关性良好、变化趋势一致,但方差和均值变化不一致。  相似文献   

14.
Kuannersuit Glacier, a valley glacier on Disko Island in west Greenland, experienced a major surge from 1995 to 1998 where the glacier advanced 10·5 km and produced a ~65 m thick stacked sequence of debris‐rich basal ice and meteoric glacier ice. The aim of this study is to describe the tectonic evolution of large englacial thrusts and the processes of basal ice formation using a multiproxy approach including structural glaciology, stable isotope composition (δ18O and δD), sedimentology and ground‐penetrating radar. We argue that the major debris layers that can be traced in the terminal zone represent englacial thrusts that were formed early during the surge. Thrust overthrow was at least 200–300 m and this lead to a 30 m thick repetition of basal ice at the ice margin. It is assumed that the englacial thrusting was initiated at the transition between warm ice from the interior and the cold snout. The basal debris‐rich ice was mainly formed after the thrusting phase. Two sub‐facies of stratified basal ice have been identified; a lower massive ice facies (SM) composed of frozen diamict enriched with heavy stable isotopes overlain by laminated ice facies (SL) consisting of millimetre thick lamina of alternating debris‐poor and debris‐rich ice. We interpret the stratified basal ice as a continuum formed mainly by freeze‐on processes and localized regelation. First laminated basal ice is formed and as meltwater is depleted more sediment is entrained and finally the glacier freezes to the base and massive diamict is frozen‐on. The increased ability to entrain sediments may partly be associated with higher basal freezing rates enhanced by loss of frictional heat from cessation of fast flow and conductive cooling through a thin heavily crevassed ice during the final phase of the glacier surge. The dispersed basal ice facies (D) was mainly formed by secondary processes where fine‐grained sediment is mobilized in the vein system of ice. Our results have important implications for understanding the significance of basal ice formation and englacial thrusting beneath fast‐flowing glaciers and it provides new information about the development of landforms during a glacier surge. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
This study investigated spatial and temporal patterns of trends of the precipitation maxima (defined as the annual/seasonal maximum precipitation) in the Yangtze River basin for 1960–2005 using Mann–Kendall trend test, and explored association of changing patterns of the precipitation maxima with large-scale circulation using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The research results indicate changes of precipitation maxima from relative stable patterns to the significant increasing/decreasing trend in the middle 1970s. With respect to annual variability, the rainy days are decreasing and precipitation intensity is increasing, and significant increasing trend of precipitation intensity was detected in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin. Number of rain days with daily precipitation exceeding 95th and 99th percentiles and related precipitation intensities are in increasing tendency in summer. Large-scale atmospheric circulation analysis indicates decreasing strength of East Asian summer monsoon during 1975–2005 as compared to that during 1961–1974 and increasing geopotential height in the north China, South China Sea and west Pacific regions, all of which combine to negatively impact the northward propagation of the vapor flux. This circulation pattern will be beneficial for the longer stay of the Meiyu front in the Yangtze River basin, leading to more precipitation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin in summer months. The significant increasing summer precipitation intensity and changing frequency in the rain/no-rain days in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin have potential to result in higher occurrence probability of flood and drought hazards in the region.  相似文献   

16.
On the basis of daily precipitation records at 76 meteorological stations in the arid region, northwest of China, the spatial and temporal distribution of mean precipitation and extremes were analysed during 1960–2010. The Mann–Kendall trend test and linear least square method were utilized to detect monotonic trends and magnitudes in annual and seasonal mean precipitation and extremes. The results obtained indicate that both the mean precipitation and the extremes have increased except in consecutive dry days, which showed the opposite trend. The changes in amplitude of both mean precipitation and extremes show seasonal variability. On an annual basis, the number of rain days (R0.1) has significantly increased. Meanwhile, the precipitation intensity as reflected by simple daily intensity index (SDII), number of heavy precipitation days (R10), very wet days (R95p), max 1‐day precipitation amount (RX1day) and max 5‐day precipitation amount (RX5day) has also significantly increased. This suggests that the precipitation increase in the arid region is due to the increase in both precipitation frequency and intensity. Trends in extremes are very highly correlated with mean trends of precipitation. The spatial correlation between trends in extremes and trends in the mean is stronger for winter (DJF) than for annual and other seasons. The regional annual and seasonal precipitation and extremes are observed the step jump in mean in the late 1980s. Overall, the results of this study are good indicators of local climate change, which will definitely enhance human mitigation to natural hazards caused by precipitation extremes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
During the International Polar Year (IPY), one area of great interest is co-coordinated, multi-instrument probing of the ionosphere at high latitudes. This region is important not only for the applications that rely upon our understanding of it, but also because it contains the footprints of processes that have their origin in the interplanetary space. Many different techniques are now available for probing the ionosphere, from radar measurements to the analysis of very low frequency (VLF) wave paths. Combining these methods provides the ability to study the ionosphere from high in the F-region to the bottom of the D-layer. Thus, coupling processes from the magnetosphere and to the neutral atmosphere can be considered. An additional dimension is through comparisons of the response of the two polar ionospheres to similar (or the same) geomagnetic activity. With more instruments available at the South Pole inter-hemispheric, studies have become easier to accomplish such that a fuller picture of the global response to Sun–Earth coupling can be painted.This paper presents a review of the current state of knowledge in ionospheric probing. It cannot provide a comprehensive guide of the work to date due to the scale of the topic. Rather it is intended to give an overview of the techniques and recent results from some of the instruments and facilities that are a part of the IPY cluster 63—Heliosphere Impact on Geospace. In this way it is hoped that the reader will gain a flavor of the recent research performed in this area and the potential for continuing collaboration and capabilities during the IPY (2007–2009).  相似文献   

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