Assessing Global Water Storage Variability from GRACE: Trends,Seasonal Cycle,Subseasonal Anomalies and Extremes

Throughout the past decade, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has given an unprecedented view on global variations in terrestrial water storage. While an increasing number of case studies have provided a rich overview on regional analyses, a global assessment on the dominant features of GRACE variability is still lacking. To address this, we survey key features of temporal variability in the GRACE record by decomposing gridded time series of monthly equivalent water height into linear trends, inter-annual, seasonal, and subseasonal (intra-annual) components. We provide an overview of the relative importance and spatial distribution of these components globally. A correlation analysis with precipitation and temperature reveals that both the inter-annual and subseasonal anomalies are tightly related to fluctuations in the atmospheric forcing. As a novelty, we show that for large regions of the world high-frequency anomalies in the monthly GRACE signal, which have been partly interpreted as noise, can be statistically reconstructed from daily precipitation once an adequate averaging filter is applied. This filter integrates the temporally decaying contribution of precipitation to the storage changes in any given month, including earlier precipitation. Finally, we also survey extreme dry anomalies in the GRACE record and relate them to documented drought events. This global assessment sets regional studies in a broader context and reveals phenomena that had not been documented so far.     

Variations of the Present-Day Annual and Seasonal Runoff in the Far East and Siberia with the Use of Regional Hydrological and Global Climate Models

A method of spatial calibration and verification of regional numerical physically based models of river runoff formation, incorporating runoff formation processes in the main river channel and its tributaries, was used to obtain a statistical estimate of the quality of river runoff calculation by conventional and alternative criteria focused on runoff reproduction in different phases of water regime and the characteristics of its variations. The analysis of the simulation quality of the annual and mean monthly river runoff (average runoff, standard deviation, and the coefficient of variation) at the near-mouth gages over the historical period with boundary conditions represented by data of global climate models showed the results to be satisfactory. This allows the proposed combination of climate and hydrological models to be used to study physically based regional variations of water regime under different physiographic and climatic conditions in the examined river basins with flood runoff regime (the Amur R.) and the predominant snowmelt runoff during spring flood (the Lena R.).     

Comparison of Daily GRACE Gravity Field and Numerical Water Storage Models for De-aliasing of Satellite Gravimetry Observations

Reducing aliasing effects of insufficiently modelled high-frequent, non-tidal mass variations of the atmosphere, the oceans and the hydrosphere in gravity field models derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission is the topic of this study. The signal content of the daily GRACE gravity field model series (ITG-Kalman) is compared to high-frequency bottom pressure variability and terrestrially stored water variations obtained from recent numerical simulations from an ocean circulation model (OMCT) and two hydrological models (WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model, Land Surface Discharge Model). Our results show that daily estimates of ocean bottom pressure from the most recent OMCT simulations and the daily ITG-Kalman solutions are able to explain up to 40 % of extra-tropical sea-level variability in the Southern Ocean. In contrast to this, the daily ITG-Kalman series and simulated continental total water storage variability largely disagree at periods below 30 days. Therefore, as long as no adequate hydrological model will become available, the daily ITG-Kalman series can be regarded as a good initial proxy for high-frequency mass variations at a global scale. As a second result of this study, based on monthly solutions as well as daily observation residuals, it is shown that applying this GRACE-derived de-aliasing model supports the determination of the time-variable gravity field from GRACE data and the subsequent geophysical interpretation. This leads us to the recommendation that future satellite concepts for determining mass variations in the Earth system should be capable of observing higher frequeny signals with sufficient spatial resolution.     

Global surface mass from a new combination of GRACE,modelled OBP and reprocessed GPS data

Weekly surface loading variations are estimated from a joint least squares inversion of load-induced GPS site displacements, GRACE gravimetry and simulated ocean bottom pressure (OBP) from the finite element sea-ice ocean model (FESOM).In this study, we directly use normal equations derived from reprocessed GPS observations, where station and satellite positions are estimated simultaneously. The OBP weight of the model in the inversion is based on a new error model, obtained from 2 FESOM runs forced with different atmospheric data sets.Our findings indicate that the geocenter motion derived from the inversion is smooth, with non-seasonal RMS values of 1.4, 0.9 and 1.9 mm for the X, Y and Z directions, respectively. The absolute magnitude of the seasonal geocenter motion varies annually between 2 and 4.5 mm. Important hydrological regions such as the Amazon, Australia, South-East Asia and Europe are mostly affected by the geocenter motion, with magnitudes of up to 2 cm, when expressed in equivalent water height.The chosen solar radiation pressure model, used in the GPS processing, has only a marginal effect on the joint inversion results. Using the empirical CODE model slightly increases the annual amplitude of the Z component of the geocenter by 0.8 mm. However, in case of a GPS-only inversion, notable larger differences are found for the annual amplitude and phase estimates when applying the older physical ROCK models. Regardless of the used radiation pressure model the GPS network still exhibits maximum radial expansions in the order of 3 mm (0.45 ppb in terms of scale), which are most likely caused by remaining GPS technique errors.In an additional experiment, we have used the joint inversion solution as a background loading model in the GPS normal equations. The reduced time series, compared to those without a priori loading model, show a consistent decrease in RMS. In terms of the annual height component, 151 of the 189 stations show a reduction of at least 10% in seasonal amplitude.On the ocean floor, we find a positive overall correlation (0.51) of the inversion solution with time series from globally distributed independent bottom pressure recorders.Even after removing a seasonal fit we still find a correlation of 0.45. Furthermore, the geocenter motion has a significant effect on ocean bottom pressure as neglecting it causes the correlation to drop to 0.42.     

Physically Consistent Responses of the Global Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Models and Observations

Robust and physically understandable responses of the global atmospheric water cycle to a warming climate are presented. By considering interannual responses to changes in surface temperature (T), observations and AMIP5 simulations agree on an increase in column integrated water vapor at the rate 7 %/K (in line with the Clausius–Clapeyron equation) and of precipitation at the rate 2–3 %/K (in line with energetic constraints). Using simple and complex climate models, we demonstrate that radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is currently suppressing global precipitation (P) at ～?0.15 %/decade. Along with natural variability, this can explain why observed trends in global P over the period 1988?2008 are close to zero. Regional responses in the global water cycle are strongly constrained by changes in moisture fluxes. Model simulations show an increased moisture flux into the tropical wet region at 900 hPa and an enhanced outflow (of smaller magnitude) at around 600 hPa with warming. Moisture transport explains an increase in P in the wet tropical regions and small or negative changes in the dry regions of the subtropics in CMIP5 simulations of a warming climate. For AMIP5 simulations and satellite observations, the heaviest 5-day rainfall totals increase in intensity at ～15 %/K over the ocean with reductions at all percentiles over land. The climate change response in CMIP5 simulations shows consistent increases in P over ocean and land for the highest intensities, close to the Clausius?Clapeyron scaling of 7 %/K, while P declines for the lowest percentiles, indicating that interannual variability over land may not be a good proxy for climate change. The local changes in precipitation and its extremes are highly dependent upon small shifts in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional feedbacks.     

呼图壁地下储气库地表盖层变形的GPS研究

利用新疆呼图壁地下储气库地表盖层由13个点位组成的形变监测网的前5期GPS观测资料,研究地下储气库注采过程中地表盖层的变形响应。通过获取地下储气库运行过程中地表盖层形变的三维时间序列,并结合井口压力数据,区分地下储气库在不同过程中的变形信号。研究结果表明,地表盖层在储气库注采过程中水平方向上存在明显的“呼吸效应”,储气库每MPa气井压力变化在注、采周期内对地表变形造成的影响在水平方向上分别达到1.02、1.24mm,垂直方向分别达到-1.11、0.86mm。     

Correction of Hydrological and Oceanic Effects from GRACE Data by Combination of the Steric Sea Level,Altimetry Data and GLDAS Model

In this study, a scheme to estimate oceanic and hydrological effects in the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) data is presented. The aim is to reveal tectonic signals for the case of the Sumatra earthquake on 26 December 2004. The variations of hydrological and oceanic effects are estimated with the aid of data set of GRACE, altimetry, World Ocean Atlas, and the GLDAS model for a period of January 2003 to December 2006. The time series of computed gravity changes over Sumatra region show some correlations to the deformation resulting from the earthquake occurred in December 2004. The maximum and minimum impacts of hydrological and oceanic effects on gravity changes are about 3 μGal in radial direction and–5 μGal in northward direction. The maximum and minimum amounts of gravitational gradient changes after the correction are 0.2 and–0.25 mE, which indicates the significant influences of hydrological and oceanic sources on the desired signal.     

基于GPS和GRACE数据的三维地表形变的比较及地球物理解释

GPS技术能以高空间和高时间分辨率监测地表形变.但由于测量原理的不同,GPS监测的地表形变与GRACE存在差异.本文比较了ITRF2008-GPS残差序列与基于CSR的RL05版本的GRACE球谐系数的地表形变序列的差异.结果表明,GPS和GRACE的周年变化在高程方向上具有较好的一致性,但水平方向的差异明显.重点分析了影响GPS/GRACE地表形变差异(尤其是水平方向)的三个因素:不同GPS站时间序列间的不确定性,热弹性形变和区域形变.GPS站地表形变本身的不确定度在一定程度上导致了GPS/GRACE间的差异(特别是水平方向).结合热弹性形变理论指出,由温度变化引起的热弹性形变也是导致GPS/GRACE的南北方向差异的主要原因之一.因此利用GPS数据研究地表质量负载时,必须消除热弹性形变的影响.区域负载对GPS/GRACE水平方向差异的影响也是不可忽略的,特别是对欧洲区域.     

Large-Scale Total Water Storage and Water Flux Changes over the Arid and Semiarid Parts of the Middle East from GRACE and Reanalysis Products

Previous studies indicate that water storage over a large part of the Middle East has been decreased over the last decade. Variability in the total (hydrological) water flux (TWF, i.e., precipitation minus evapotranspiration minus runoff) and water storage changes of the Tigris–Euphrates river basin and Iran’s six major basins (Khazar, Persian, Urmia, Markazi, Hamun, and Sarakhs) over 2003–2013 is assessed in this study. Our investigation is performed based on the TWF that are estimated as temporal derivatives of terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) products and those from the reanalysis products of ERA-Interim and MERRA-Land. An inversion approach is applied to consistently estimate the spatio-temporal changes of soil moisture and groundwater storage compartments of the seven basins during the study period from GRACE TWS, altimetry, and land surface model products. The influence of TWF trends on separated water storage compartments is then explored. Our results, estimated as basin averages, indicate negative trends in the maximums of TWF peaks that reach up to ?5.2 and ?2.6 (mm/month/year) over 2003–2013, respectively, for the Urmia and Tigris–Euphrates basins, which are most likely due to the reported meteorological drought. Maximum amplitudes of the soil moisture compartment exhibit negative trends of ?11.1, ?6.6, ?6.1, ?4.8, ?4.7, ?3.8, and ?1.2 (mm/year) for Urmia, Tigris–Euphrates, Khazar, Persian, Markazi, Sarakhs, and Hamun basins, respectively. Strong groundwater storage decrease is found, respectively, within the Khazar ?8.6 (mm/year) and Sarakhs ?7.0 (mm/year) basins. The magnitude of water storage decline in the Urmia and Tigris–Euphrates basins is found to be bigger than the decrease in the monthly accumulated TWF indicating a contribution of human water use, as well as surface and groundwater flow to the storage decline over the study area.     

水文学与水力学相结合的南四湖洪水预报模型

南四湖流域是一个复杂的大流域，是东线南水北调的重要调节湖泊之一，也是干旱和洪水频繁流域．本文首先采 用分布式的新安江模型，对有实测流量资料的支流流域进行了模型参数率定，洪量预报达到了一定的精度，建立了南四湖 流域的洪水预报模型．采用一维、二维水力学模型并与水文学模型耦合进行上级湖的流量演进以及二级坝水利枢纽的 调度．     

水文学与水力学相结合的南四湖洪水预报模型

作为“滇池沿岸带生态修复技术研究及工程示范”系列研究论文之一,主要分析研究了滇池东北部沿岸带原有生 态状况、现有环境基础、实施局部岸段生态修复的有限目标、实现这一目标的主要限制性环境因子及其可控性．结果显 示,滇池东北部沿岸带入湖河流密集,发育良好的湖滩湿地原本是拦截净化入湖河水的生态屏障;湖滩湿地被围垦之后, 人工岸堤前风浪侵蚀强烈,水生植物和水生动物消失,但沙质沉积物淤积形成了次生浅滩;在次生沙滩上创建挺水植被, 仍然可以发挥沉积掩埋污染物、捕获分解漂浮性蓝藻的污染控制功效;实施生态修复所面临的限制性环境因子主要为风 浪的强烈冲刷和水质严重污染,这些因素都可以通过相应的环境改造与控制措施加以解决,因而实现生态修复目标是可 能的．     

Permafrost in the Caspian Basin as a Possible Trigger of the Late Khvalynian Transgression: Testing Hypothesis Using a Hydrological Model

Water Resources - A quantitative estimate is given to the hypothesis, explaining the paleogeographic data on the extremely high water abundance in rivers in the Caspian Basin in the period when the...     

Seasonal and Year-to-Year Variations of Phytoplankton Primary Production in the Rybinsk Reservoir: The Effect of Weather and Climate Variations

Water Resources - The seasonal and long-term dynamics of phytoplankton primary production has been studied in the Rybinsk Reservoir (Upper Volga) in 2005–2014. A positive correlation has been...     

联合GPS和GRACE观测研究日本MW9.0地震震后变形机制

利用GPS和GRACE观测数据研究了日本M_W9.0地震的震后变形特征.GPS观测显示,区域震后位移呈现随指数函数变化特征,变化速率符合大森公式的衰减特性;近五年的震后水平位移累积已达到东向60~165 cm,南向20~65 cm的量值,距震中较远站点已超过同震变化量,且震后变形仍然持续.GRACE观测到显著的震后重力变化,地震破裂两侧的重力变化总体均呈上升趋势,但海洋侧的变化速率较快.联合震后余滑和黏弹性位错理论对震后变形进行了模拟,探索了GPS和GRACE观测的综合应用方法.研究发现,综合考虑震后余滑和黏滞性松弛效应可以对日本地震的震后变形做出较合理的解释,震后初期余滑起主要作用,1至2年以后逐渐减弱,黏滞性松弛作用逐渐增强.在震后变形模拟和区域黏滞性结构反演中形成GPS和GRACE观测结合应用的方法,先基于震后GPS形变估算区域黏滞性结构,而后利用GRACE观测修正深部的黏滞系数,并综合利用这两种观测微调浅层黏滞系数,最终确定区域黏滞性结构.基于该方法反演了日本震源区的地幔黏滞性结构,地震断层破裂两侧的流变参数存在差异,大陆侧的地幔顶层黏滞系数在1.0×10¹⁹ Pa·s量级,而海洋侧的则略小于大陆的,在6.0×10¹⁸ Pa·s量级.

     

Global elevation vibration and seasonal changes derived by the analysis of GPS height

Nearly10yearshaveelapsedsincetheGPSobservationtechniquewasappliedingeophysicalstudies.TheInternationalGPSServiceforGeodynamics(IGS),whichcameintooperationin1994,distributespreciseGPSsatelliteephemerides,Earthrotationparameters,internationalterrestrialrefe…     

Species Composition and Seasonal Variations of the Gastropoda in Upper Sakarya River System (Turkey) in Relation to Water Quality

Species composition, abundance, and seasonal distribution of the Gastropoda fauna and the physical and chemical variables of Upper Sakarya River System have been investigated between October 1998 and August 1999. Gastropod fauna in the Upper Sakarya River System was represented by 9 species of Prosobranchia and 7 species of Pulmonata. Diversity, dominance, and abundance of the Gastropoda species were recorded seasonally. The abundance of some of the 16 species was correlated positively with temperature, dissolved oxygen and negatively or positively with pH and nitrate. It was observed that Gyraulus albus (Müller, 1774), Physa acuta Draparnaud, 1805, Valvata pulchella Studer, 1820, and Oxyloma elegans (Risso, 1826) can tolerate a high level of NO‐N while V. piscinalis (Müller, 1774) spread out in unpolluted water. Although the species and their numbers change at the stations, the maximum numbers were found during autumn, while minimums were identified during the winter sampling. Gyraulus albus was the most widespread species in our research area. Only 5 species (Gyraulus albus, Physa acuta, Valvata cristata (Muller, 1774), Valvata pulchella, Melanopsis praemorsa costata (Olivier, 1804)) were determined each season. However, no Gastropoda were found at the station 3 that has high BOD, NO‐N, NO‐N, and NH₃ levels.     

季节变化对列车行驶路基动应力的影响及简化计算方法

我国众多铁路干线分布于深季节冻土地区。铁路路基土层的冻融状态随着季节的交替变化而改变,相应的列车行驶时引起的路基动应力分布也有所不同。考虑路基土体的参振效应,通过改进车辆-轨道-路基垂向耦合动力学模型获取不同季节列车行驶振动荷载时程,进而通过动力有限元数值模拟方法,研究季节变化对列车行驶引起的路基动应力分布规律的影响。研究表明:路基土中的动应力幅值及其沿路基深度的分布规律与该时期路基土的冻融状态密切相关,基于此结论,提出深季节冻土地区不同季节铁路冻土下限范围内路基动应力的简化计算方法。该研究对于优化季节性冻土地区铁路路基设计方法,完善路基长期动力稳定性能评价方法等具有重要意义。     

Seasonal Prediction for the Indian Monsoon Region with FSU Ocean-atmosphere Coupled Model: Model Mean and 2002 Anomalous Drought

Seasonal climate prediction for the Indian summer monsoon season is critical for strategic planning of the region. The mean features of the Indian summer monsoon and its variability, produced by versions of the ‘Florida State University Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model’ (FSUCGCM) hindcasts, are investigated for the period 1987 to 2002. The coupled system has full global ocean and atmospheric models with coupled assimilation. Four member models were created by choosing different combinations of parameterizations of the physical processes in the atmospheric model component. Lower level wind flow patterns and rainfall associated with the summer monsoon season are examined from this fully coupled model seasonal integrations. By comparing with observations, the mean monsoon condition simulated by this coupled model for the June, July and August periods is seen to be reasonably realistic. The overall spatial low-level wind flow patterns and the precipitation distributions over the Indian continent and adjoining oceanic regions are comparable with the respective analyses. The anomalous below normal large-scale precipitation and the associated anomalous low-level wind circulation pattern for the summer monsoon season of 2002 was predicted by the model three months in advance. For the Indian summer monsoon, the ensemble mean is able to reproduce the mean features better compared to individual member models.     

Seasonal Dynamics of the Hypersaline Lake Oiburg (Crimea) as a Model for Studying Climate Change Effects

Water Resources - The studies of seasonal variations of some hydrochemical water characteristics (salinity, oxygen content, temperature, pH, and Eh) and the state of brine shrimp population in the...