Assessing remotely sensed chlorophyll-a for the implementation of the Water Framework Directive in European perialpine lakes

The lakes of the European perialpine region constitute a large water reservoir, which is threatened by the anthropogenic pressure altering water quality. The Water Framework Directive of the European Commission aims to protect water resources and monitoring is seen as an essential step for achieving this goal. Remote sensing can provide frequent data for large scale studies of water quality parameters such as chlorophyll-a (chl-a). In this work we use a dataset of maps of chl-a derived from over 200 MERIS (MEdium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) satellite images for comparing water quality of 12 perialpine lakes in the period 2003-2009. Besides the different trophic levels of the lakes, results confirm that the seasonal variability of chl-a concentration is particularly pronounced during spring and autumn especially for the more eutrophic lakes. We show that relying on only one sample for the assessment of lake water quality during the season might lead to misleading results and erroneous assignments to quality classes. Time series MERIS data represents a suitable and cost-effective technology to fill this gap, depicting the dynamics of the surface waters of lakes in agreement with the evolution of natural phenomena.     

Floods,cyclones, drought and climate change in Bangladesh: a reality check

This paper seeks to correct prevailing assumptions about Bangladesh’s susceptibility to floods, tropical cyclones and drought, and the extent to which global warming has already affected the country’s climate. Analysis of 50 years of the country’s climate and hydrological data showed no evidence that rainfall amounts have changed or that floods, tropical cyclones and droughts have increased in frequency or severity. The extent to which global warming might have affected temperatures is made uncertain by the probably greater impact on temperatures at recording stations of widespread changes in land use and the heat-island effect resulting from urban expansion around the stations. The paper reviews both the diversity of environments in Bangladesh’s coastal area exposed to sea-level rise and the possible mitigation methods. Two major conclusions are drawn: that population increase and rapid urbanisation pose more serious immediate problems for development planning in Bangladesh than climate change; and that education at all levels needs to include practical field studies that could provide all students with a better understanding of the country’s diverse and locally complex environments.     

Climate change induced salinisation of artificial lakes in the Netherlands and consequences for drinking water production

In this paper we present a modelling study to investigate the impacts of climate change on the chloride concentration and salinisation processes in two man-made freshwater lakes in the Netherlands, Lake IJsselmeer and Lake Markermeer. We used a transient compartmental chloride and water balance model to elucidate the salinisation processes occurring under present conditions and assess future salinisation under two climate forcing scenarios. The model results showed that the Rhine River is the dominant determinant for the chloride concentration in both lakes, followed by drainage of brackish groundwater from the surrounding polders. The results further show that especially during dry years, seawater intrusion through the tidal closure dam is an important source of chloride to Lake IJsselmeer. The results from the climatic forcing scenarios show that Lake IJsselmeer is especially vulnerable to climate-induced salinisation whereas effects on Lake Markermeer are relatively small. Peak chloride concentrations at the raw water intake of the Andijk drinking water facility on Lake IJsselmeer are projected to increase to values above 250 mg/l in the most far-reaching climate change scenario W+ in 2050 for dry years. This is well above the maximum allowable concentration of 150 mg/l for chloride in drinking water.Modelling showed that climate change impacts the chloride concentrations in a variety of ways: 1) an increasing occurrence of low river flows from summer to autumn reduces the dilution of the chloride that is emitted to the Rhine with a constant load thereby increasing its concentration; 2) increased open water evaporation and reduced rainfall during summer periods and droughts increases the chloride concentration in the water; and 3) rises in sea level increase seawater intrusion through the tidal closure dam of Lake IJsselmeer. The processes described here are likely to affect many other tidal rivers or lakes and should be considered when planning future raw water intake stations for drinking water production or agricultural water supply.     

Water and heat transport in boreal soils: implications for soil response to climate change

Soil water content strongly affects permafrost dynamics by changing the soil thermal properties. However, the movement of liquid water, which plays an important role in the heat transport of temperate soils, has been under-represented in boreal studies. Two different heat transport models with and without convective heat transport were compared to measurements of soil temperatures in four boreal sites with different stand ages and drainage classes. Overall, soil temperatures during the growing season tended to be over-estimated by 2-4 °C when movement of liquid water and water vapor was not represented in the model. The role of heat transport in water has broad implications for site responses to warming and suggests reduced vulnerability of permafrost to thaw at drier sites. This result is consistent with field observations of faster thaw in response to warming in wet sites compared to drier sites over the past 30 years in Canadian boreal forests. These results highlight that representation of water flow in heat transport models is important to simulate future soil thermal or permafrost dynamics under a changing climate.     

Characterization of turbidity in Florida's Lake Okeechobee and Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie Estuaries using MODIS-Aqua measurements

This paper describes the use of ocean color remote sensing data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard the Aqua satellite to characterize turbidity in Lake Okeechobee and its primary drainage basins, the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie estuaries from 2002 to 2010. Drainage modification and agricultural development in southern Florida transport sediments and nutrients from watershed agricultural areas to Lake Okeechobee. As a result of development around Lake Okeechobee and the estuaries that are connected to Lake Okeechobee, estuarine conditions have also been adversely impacted, resulting in salinity and nutrient fluctuations. The measurement of water turbidity in lacustrine and estuarine ecosystems allows researchers to understand important factors such as light limitation and the potential release of nutrients from re-suspended sediments. Based on a strong correlation between water turbidity and normalized water-leaving radiance at the near-infrared (NIR) band (nL_w(869)), a new satellite water turbidity algorithm has been developed for Lake Okeechobee. This study has shown important applications with satellite-measured nL_w(869) data for water quality monitoring and measurements for turbid inland lakes. MODIS-Aqua-measured water property data are derived using the shortwave infrared (SWIR)-based atmospheric correction algorithm in order to remotely obtain synoptic turbidity data in Lake Okeechobee and normalized water-leaving radiance using the red band (nL_w(645)) in the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie estuaries. We found varied, but distinct seasonal, spatial, and event driven turbidity trends in Lake Okeechobee and the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie estuary regions. Wind waves and hurricanes have the largest influence on turbidity trends in Lake Okeechobee, while tides, currents, wind waves, and hurricanes influence the Caloosahatchee and St. Lucie estuarine areas.     

The driest continent and the greediest water company: newspaper reporting of drought in Sydney and London

Analysis of press reports of the onset of drought in Sydney in 2002 and London in 2006 shows different understandings of the relationship between infrastructure provision, individual behaviour and the environment. Drought is both a natural and cultural phenomenon requiring urban water managers to consider social as well as technical considerations in preparing for future droughts.     

Drivers of water quality in a large water storage reservoir during a period of extreme drawdown

This study examined the drivers of water quality in a large water storage reservoir (Lake Hume) during a period of extreme drawdown (to less than 3% of capacity). During the period of extreme drawdown, the reservoir can be thought of as consisting of three separate but inter-related parcels of water. The warm surface mixed layer was about 6m deep. Cold water inflows from the Mitta Mitta River undershot the surface mixed layer in the Mitta Mitta arm of the reservoir and flowed along the bottom of the reservoir to the Dam Wall without substantial interaction with the surface mixed layer. When inflows from the Murray River occurred, the temperature of these inflows was similar to that of the surface mixed layer within the dam and the flows appeared to move within the surface mixed layer towards the Dam Wall. These Murray River inflows were insufficient to promote total mixing of the surface and bottom waters. The Murray River arm of the reservoir became a 'hot spot' for nutrient production. Stratification and subsequent anoxic conditions promoted the release of nutrients - ammonium, organic N and total P - from the sediments into the overlying hypolimnion. Because the depth of the lake was relatively shallow due to the extreme drawdown, wind driven events lead to a substantial deepening (turnover) of the thermocline allowing periodic pulses of nutrients into the warm surface layer. These nutrient pulses appeared to stimulate cyanobacterial growth. Warm inflows from the Murray River then served to push the blooms formed in the Murray arm into the main body of the lake.     

Long and short‐term assessment of surface area changes in saline and freshwater lakes via remote sensing

Advances in remote sensing technology enable monitoring and detection of these vulnerable water bodies that bear numerous functions and ecological services beyond their intended use. As such, valuable data and information may be provided for long and short‐term analyses and stored in a database for future projections. This paper initially grouped 18 natural lakes of the Konya Closed Basin of Turkey according to their salinity level. Freshwater, saline and brackish lakes have then undergone temporal analysis for every 5‐year intervals via Landsat satellite images. Freshwater lake surfaces have not changed noticeably during the inspection period; however, saline waters have decreased in surface area by 32%. Beysehir Lake constituting 94% of the freshwater category and Tuz Lake representing 97% of the saline group were selected for the short‐term analysis that was monthly conducted for years 2017 and 2018 with optical and SAR images to better verify cause and effect relationship.     

Simulating the impacts of future land use and climate changes on surface water quality in the Des Plaines River watershed, Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area, Illinois

Modeling the effects of past and current land use composition and climatic patterns on surface water quality provides valuable information for environmental and land planning. This study predicts the future impacts of urban land use and climate changes on surface water quality within Des Plaines River watershed, Illinois, between 2010 and 2030. Land Change Modeler (LCM) was used to characterize three future land use/planning scenarios. Each scenario encourages low density residential growth, normal urban growth, and commercial growth, respectively. Future climate patterns examined include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) B1 and A1B groups. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to estimate total suspended solids and phosphorus concentration generated at a 10 year interval. The predicted results indicate that for a large portion of the watershed, the concentration of total suspended solids (TSS) would be higher under B1 and A1B climate scenarios during late winter and early spring compared to the same period in 2010; while the summer period largely demonstrates a reverse trend. Model results further suggest that by 2020, phosphorus concentration would be higher during the summer under B1 climate scenario compared to 2010, and is expected to wane by 2030. The projected phosphorus concentrations during the late winter and early spring periods vary across climate and land use scenarios. The analysis also denotes that middle and high density residential development can reduce excess TSS concentration, while the establishment of dense commercial and industrial development might help ameliorate high phosphorus levels. The combined land use and climate change analysis revealed land use development schemes that can be adopted to mitigate potential future water quality impairment. This research provides important insights into possible adverse consequences on surface water quality and resources under certain climate change and land use scenarios.     

Changes in internal temperatures within the built environment as a response to a changing climate

In August 2003, 14,800 heat-related deaths occurred in Paris [1] during what is considered the warmest summer since at least 1500 2, 3, 4 and 5. These deaths resulted not only from unusually high peak temperatures and a reduction in the diurnal temperature swing, but also from a failure of buildings to successfully modify the external environment. It has been estimated [6] that by the 2040s, a 2003-type summer is predicted to be average within Europe. Clearly this will have a great impact on morbidity and mortality and produce challenges for emergency services [7]. The effects of climate change on the internal environment are not well known and are the subject of much current research [8]. For building scientists and emergency planners, there is the need to know the general form of the relationship between increases in external temperature due to climate change and increases in internal temperatures. Here we show that the relationship is linear, and that differing architectures give rise to differing constants of proportionality. This is a surprising result as it had been assumed that, given the complexity of the heat flows within large structures, no simple relationship would exist and had not been found in previous work [9]. We term these constants of proportionality climate change amplification coefficients. These coefficients fully describe the change in the internal environment of an architecture given a seasonal or annual change in external climate and can be used to judge the resilience to climate change of a particular structure. The estimation and use of these coefficients for new or existing buildings will allow: the design of more resilient buildings adapted to a changing climate, cost-benefit analysis of refurbishment options and the rational assembly of at-risk registers of vulnerable building occupants.     

Controlling harmful cyanobacterial blooms in a world experiencing anthropogenic and climatic-induced change

Harmful (toxic, food web altering, hypoxia generating) cyanobacterial algal blooms (CyanoHABs) are proliferating world-wide due to anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, and they represent a serious threat to the use and sustainability of our freshwater resources. Traditionally, phosphorus (P) input reductions have been prescribed to control CyanoHABs, because P limitation is widespread and some CyanoHABs can fix atmospheric nitrogen (N₂) to satisfy their nitrogen (N) requirements. However, eutrophying systems are increasingly plagued with non N₂ fixing CyanoHABs that are N and P co-limited or even N limited. In many of these systems N loads are increasing faster than P loads. Therefore N and P input constraints are likely needed for long-term CyanoHAB control in such systems. Climatic changes, specifically warming, increased vertical stratification, salinization, and intensification of storms and droughts play additional, interactive roles in modulating CyanoHAB frequency, intensity, geographic distribution and duration. In addition to having to consider reductions in N and P inputs, water quality managers are in dire need of effective tools to break the synergy between nutrient loading and hydrologic regimes made more favorable for CyanoHABs by climate change. The more promising of these tools make affected waters less hospitable for CyanoHABs by 1) altering the hydrology to enhance vertical mixing and/or flushing and 2) decreasing nutrient fluxes from organic rich sediments by physically removing the sediments or capping sediments with clay. Effective future CyanoHAB management approaches must incorporate both N and P loading dynamics within the context of altered thermal and hydrologic regimes associated with climate change.     

Climate change: links to global expansion of harmful cyanobacteria

Cyanobacteria are the Earth’s oldest (∼3.5 bya) oxygen evolving organisms, and they have had major impacts on shaping our modern-day biosphere. Conversely, biospheric environmental perturbations, including nutrient enrichment and climatic changes (e.g. global warming, hydrologic changes, increased frequencies and intensities of tropical cyclones, more intense and persistent droughts), strongly affect cyanobacterial growth and bloom potentials in freshwater and marine ecosystems. We examined human and climatic controls on harmful (toxic, hypoxia-generating, food web disrupting) bloom-forming cyanobacteria (CyanoHABs) along the freshwater to marine continuum. These changes may act synergistically to promote cyanobacterial dominance and persistence. This synergy is a formidable challenge to water quality, water supply and fisheries managers, because bloom potentials and controls may be altered in response to contemporaneous changes in thermal and hydrologic regimes. In inland waters, hydrologic modifications, including enhanced vertical mixing and, if water supplies permit, increased flushing (reducing residence time) will likely be needed in systems where nutrient input reductions are neither feasible nor possible. Successful control of CyanoHABs by grazers is unlikely except in specific cases. Overall, stricter nutrient management will likely be the most feasible and practical approach to long-term CyanoHAB control in a warmer, stormier and more extreme world.     

The future of nuclear power in Europe: a response

Two interlinked and complex problems face energy policy‐makers: future energy supplies and climate change. The choices made on energy mix will lock development pathways for some considerable time ahead. Climate change is a challenging problem. Decarbonising the energy system requires sustainable and environmentally friendly technologies that work within the context of the planetary environment and do not cause “collateral damage”. Several approaches are available. But nuclear power is an unsustainable technology that has already caused “collateral damage” and will leave a toxic legacy of waste, for which there appears to be no solution. Including nuclear in a future energy system is a step in the wrong direction.     

The role of learning and knowledge in adapting to climate change: a case study of Norwegian municipalities

Coping with climate change includes the role of learning and knowledge. Taking a process perspective, this article analyses how municipal officers in the Oslo region of Norway are acquiring knowledge and building competence for adapting to climate change. The article illustrates the interaction between elements of experiential learning, transformative learning and social learning as bases for adapting to emerging climate changes; each being necessary and none alone being sufficient. Their importance differs according to how profound the changes in knowledge and competence are. Experiential learning and transformative learning are stronger under single-loop learning whereas social learning might emerge as more important under triple-loop learning. Because of the uncertainties of climate change, the central government might be wise not to issue detailed regulations for adaptation by municipalities.     

Long-term trends in hydro-climatology of a major Scottish mountain river

The River Dee, in North East Scotland, is a mountainous river strongly influenced by patterns of snow accumulation and melt from the Cairngorm Mountains. Analysis of this river's flow record from 1929-2004, the longest in Scotland, supports anecdotal evidence that river extreme flows are increasing. There was no detectable change in the overall annual flow patterns. However, an analysis of seasonal data suggested a shift towards increased flows in spring (March-May) and decreased flows in summer (June-August) over the 75 years of the record. Flows in spring exceeded 29 m³ s^− 1 for 50% of the time over the earliest part of the record (1930 to 1954), whereas in the last 25 years of the record (1979 to 2004) 50% of the flows exceeded 35 m³ s^− 1. Precipitation is increasing in the spring and decreasing in July and August. If these trends continue they have important implications for water management in the Dee, with a potential increase in flood risk in spring and the increased possibility of drought in summer. Combined with this increase in flows the river appears to be more responsive to precipitation events in the catchment. In large heterogeneous catchments with a marginal alpine/high latitude climate it is difficult to assess the amount of precipitation falling as snow and its relative accumulation and ablation dynamics on daily to seasonal time scales. Changes in the temporal pattern of coherence between flow and precipitation are thought to be linked to changing snow patterns in the upland part of the catchment. A decreased amount of precipitation occurring as snow has led to higher coherence. We also show that in responsive systems it is important to record river flows at an hourly rather than daily time step in order to characterise peak flow events.     

Modeling transient response of forests to climate change

Our hypothesis is that a high diversity of dominant life forms in Tennessee forests conveys resilience to disturbance such as climate change. Because of uncertainty in climate change and their effects, three climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to simulate a range of potential climate conditions for the state. These climate changes derive from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “A1B” storyline that assumes rapid global economic growth. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in five ecological provinces using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation differences from the long-term average are more complex but less striking. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions for five ecological provinces from 1989 to 2300. Average output projects changes in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces in Tennessee with the greatest changes in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Projected declines in total tree biomass are followed by biomass recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The Southern Mixed Forest province results in less diversity in dominant trees as well as lower overall biomass than projections for the other four provinces. The biomass and composition changes projected in this study differ from forest dynamics expected without climate change. These results suggest that biomass recovery following climate change is linked to dominant tree diversity in the southeastern forest of the US. The generality of this observation warrants further investigation, for it relates to ways that forest management may influence climate change effects.     

Spatio-temporal dynamics and evolution of land use change and landscape pattern in response to rapid urbanization

Analyzing spatio-temporal characteristics of land use change is essential for understanding and assessing ecological consequence of urbanization. More importantly, such analysis can provide basic information for appropriate decision-making. By integrating historical high spatial-resolution SPOT images and spatial metrics, this study explored the spatio-temporal dynamics and evolution of land use change and landscape pattern in response to the rapid urbanization process of a booming-developing city in China from 1996 to 2006. Accurate and consistent land use change information was first extracted by the change detection method proposed in this study. The changes of landscape pattern were then analyzed using a series of spatial metrics which were derived from FRAGSTATS software. The results indicated that the rapid urbanization process has brought about enormous land use changes and urban growth at an unprecedented scale and rate and, consequently, given rise to substantial impacts on the landscape pattern. Findings further revealed that cropland and water were the major land use types developed for urban sprawl. Meanwhile, the landscape pattern underwent fundamental transition from agricultural-land-use dominant landscape to urban-land-use dominant landscape spanning the 10 years. The results not only confirmed the applicability and effectiveness of the combined method of remote sensing and metrics, but also revealed notable spatio-temporal features of land use change and landscape pattern dynamics throughout the different time periods (1996–2000, 2000–2003 and 2003–2006).     

Water quality in the Tibetan Plateau: Major ions and trace elements in the headwaters of four major Asian rivers

The Tibetan Plateau covers an area of about one fourth of Europe, has an average elevation over 4000 m above sea level, and is the water sources for about 40% of world's population. In order to foresee future changes in water quality, it is important to understand what pressures are governing the spatial variation in water chemistry. In this paper the chemistry including major ions and trace elements in the headwaters of four major Asian rivers (i.e. the Salween, Mekong, Yangtze River and Yarlung Tsangpo) in the Tibetan Plateau was studied. The results showed that the content of dissolved salts in these Tibetan rivers was relatively high compared to waters from other parts of the world. The chemical composition of the four rivers were rather similar, with Ca²⁺ and HCO₃⁻ being the dominating ions. The exception was the Yangtze River on the Plateau, which was enriched in Na⁺, Cl⁻, SO₄²⁻ and Li due to silicate weathering followed by strong evaporation caused by a negative water balance, dissolution of evaporites in the catchment and some drainage from saline lakes. The concentrations of heavy metals (Cu, Co, Cr, Ni, Cd, Pb, and Hg) and As, NH₄⁺ were generally low in all the rivers. Anthropogenic impacts on the quality of the rivers were identified at a few locations in the Mekong River and Yarlung Tsangpo basins. Generally, the main spatial variation in chemical compositions of these under studied rivers was found to be governed mainly by difference in geological variation and regional climatic-environment. Climate change is, therefore, one of main determining factors on the water chemical characteristics of these headwaters of Asian major rivers in the Tibetan Plateau.     

Climate change impacts on electricity demand: The case of a Southern European country

We study the relationship between average temperatures and electricity consumption in Portugal. Control variables include electricity prices and the economic activity. Our results indicate that there is U-shaped relationship between temperature and electricity consumption. While changes in average temperature do not affect electricity consumption by a large extent, extreme temperatures have stronger impacts. Given the mild weather in Portugal, electricity demand has not changed significantly over the last decades. Larger impacts can only be expected if extreme weather events become more frequent. Our results show the importance of considering country specificities in the analysis and of comparing several model specifications.     

Climate impacts on European agriculture and water management in the context of adaptation and mitigation—The importance of an integrated approach

We review and qualitatively assess the importance of interactions and feedbacks in assessing climate change impacts on water and agriculture in Europe. We focus particularly on the impact of future hydrological changes on agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and adaptation options. Future projected trends in European agriculture include northward movement of crop suitability zones and increasing crop productivity in Northern Europe, but declining productivity and suitability in Southern Europe. This may be accompanied by a widening of water resource differences between the North and South, and an increase in extreme rainfall events and droughts. Changes in future hydrology and water management practices will influence agricultural adaptation measures and alter the effectiveness of agricultural mitigation strategies. These interactions are often highly complex and influenced by a number of factors which are themselves influenced by climate. Mainly positive impacts may be anticipated for Northern Europe, where agricultural adaptation may be shaped by reduced vulnerability of production, increased water supply and reduced water demand. However, increasing flood hazards may present challenges for agriculture, and summer irrigation shortages may result from earlier spring runoff peaks in some regions. Conversely, the need for effective adaptation will be greatest in Southern Europe as a result of increased production vulnerability, reduced water supply and increased demands for irrigation. Increasing flood and drought risks will further contribute to the need for robust management practices.The impacts of future hydrological changes on agricultural mitigation in Europe will depend on the balance between changes in productivity and rates of decomposition and GHG emission, both of which depend on climatic, land and management factors. Small increases in European soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks per unit land area are anticipated considering changes in climate, management and land use, although an overall reduction in the total stock may result from a smaller agricultural land area. Adaptation in the water sector could potentially provide additional benefits to agricultural production such as reduced flood risk and increased drought resilience.The two main sources of uncertainty in climate impacts on European agriculture and water management are projections of future climate and their resulting impacts on water and agriculture. Since changes in climate, agricultural ecosystems and hydrometeorology depend on complex interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere and hydrological cycle there is a need for more integrated approaches to climate impacts assessments. Methods for assessing options which “moderate” the impact of agriculture in the wider sense will also need to consider cross-sectoral impacts and socio-economic aspects.