Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management

Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2–4 °C warming and 50–80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.     

Ecosystem consequences of cyanobacteria in the northern Baltic Sea

Cyanobacteria of the Baltic Sea have multiple effects on organisms that influence the food chain dynamics on several trophic levels. Cyanobacteria contain several bioactive compounds, such as alkaloids, peptides, and lipopolysaccharides. A group of nonribosomally produced oligopeptides, namely microcystins and nodularin, are tumor promoters and cause oxidative stress in the affected cells. Zooplankton graze on cyanobacteria, and when ingested, the hepatotoxins (nodularin) decrease the egg production of, for example, copepods. However, the observed effects are very variable, because many crustaceans are tolerant to nodularin and because cyanobacteria may complement the diet of grazers in small amounts. Cyanobacterial toxins are transferred through the food web from one trophic level to another. The transfer rate is relatively low in the pelagic food web, but reduced feeding and growth rates of fish larvae have been observed. In the benthic food web, especially in blue mussels, nodularin concentrations are high, and benthic feeding juvenile flounders have been observed to disappear from bloom areas. In the littoral ecosystem, gammarids have shown increased mortality and weakening of reproductive success under cyanobacterial exposure. In contrast, mysid shrimps seem to be tolerant to cyanobacterial exposure. In fish larvae, detoxication of nodularin poses a metabolic cost that is reflected as decreased growth and condition, which may increase their susceptibility to predation. Cyanobacterial filaments and aggregates also interfere with both hydromechanical and visual feeding of planktivores. The feeding appendages of mysid shrimps may clog, and the filaments interfere with prey detection of pike larvae. On the other hand, a cyanobacterial bloom may provide a refuge for both zooplankton and small fish. As the decaying bloom also provides an ample source of organic carbon and nutrients for the organisms of the microbial loop, the zooplankton species capable of selective feeding may thrive in bloom conditions. Cyanobacteria also compete for nutrients with other primary producers and change the nitrogen (N): phosphorus (P) balance of their environment by their N-fixation. Further, the bioactive compounds of cyanobacteria directly influence other primary producers, favoring cyanobacteria, chlorophytes, dinoflagellates, and nanoflagellates and inhibiting cryptophytes. As the selective grazers also shift the grazing pressure on other species than cyanobacteria, changes in the structure and functioning of the Baltic Sea communities and ecosystems are likely to occur during the cyanobacterial bloom season.     

Bacterial diversity and function in the Baltic Sea with an emphasis on cyanobacteria

In this article we summarize the current knowledge of Baltic Sea cyanobacteria, focusing on diversity, toxicity, and nitrogen fixation in the filamentous heterocystous taxa. We also review the recent results of our microbial diversity studies in planktonic and benthic habitats in the Baltic Sea. Based on molecular analyses, we have improved the understanding of cyanobacterial population structure by assessing genetic diversity within species that are morphologically inseparable. Moreover, we have studied microbial functions such as toxin production and nitrogen fixation in situ under different environmental conditions. Phosphorus limitation of bloom-forming, nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria was clearly verified, emphasizing the importance of continuous efforts to reduce this element in the Baltic Sea. We have designed a rapid and reliable detection method for the toxic cyanobacterium Nodularia spumigena, which can be used to study bloom formation of this important toxin producer.     

Baltic Sea management: Successes and failures

Severe environmental problems documented in the Baltic Sea in the 1960s led to the 1974 creation of the Helsinki Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea Area. We introduce this special issue by briefly summarizing successes and failures of Baltic environmental management in the following 40 years. The loads of many polluting substances have been greatly reduced, but legacy pollution slows recovery. Top predator populations have recovered, and human exposure to potential toxins has been reduced. The cod stock has partially recovered. Nutrient loads are decreasing, but deep-water anoxia and cyanobacterial blooms remain extensive, and climate change threatens the advances made. Ecosystem-based management is the agreed principle, but in practice the various environmental problems are still handled separately, since we still lack both basic ecological knowledge and appropriate governance structures for managing them together, in a true ecosystem approach.     

Baltic Sea hazardous substances management: results and challenges

The introduction into the Baltic Sea of hazardous substances that are persistent, bioaccumulate, and are toxic is an important environmental and human health problem. Multilateral efforts to address this problem have primarily been taken under the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM). This article examines past HELCOM efforts on hazardous substances, and discusses future challenges regarding their management. The article finds that past actions on hazardous substances have had a positive effect on improving Baltic environmental quality and reducing human health risks, although there are remaining issues and difficulties that need to be addressed. In particular, four related future challenges for HELCOM management of hazardous substances are identified and discussed: i) the need to engender further implementation and building public and private sector capacities; ii) the need to improve data availability, quality and comparability across the region and international fora; iii) the need to strengthen existing regulations and incorporate new issues; and iv) the need to effectively coordinate HELCOM activities with efforts on hazardous substances in other international fora.     

Conceptualizing the Baltic Sea ecosystem: an interdisciplinary tool for environmental decision making

There is an increasing call for stronger interdisciplinary studies in the Baltic Sea to find solutions to the environmental and social problems associated with eutrophication. Cooperation between experts from the natural sciences, socioeconomics, and management is needed. One way to solve communication problems is to develop a broad conceptual model that comprehensively describes eutrophication and links causes, effects, and the multiple relationships of eutrophication in a visual way. In the present conceptual model, the eutrophication process is divided into i) causes, ii) primary effects, iii) secondary effects, and iv) socioeconomic responses. Each part is described and discussed separately, with links to the other levels and compartments. Possible pathways are shown through the model from natural science to human society, thus inducing management options. Examples of key publications where the causes and effects are observed and studied in the Baltic Sea are listed as examples, and their implications are discussed.     

Hydroxylated and methoxylated polybrominated diphenyl ethers and polybrominated dibenzo-p-dioxins in red alga and cyanobacteria living in the Baltic Sea

Hydroxylated polybrominated diphenyl ethers (OH-PBDEs) and methoxylated polybrominated diphenyl ethers (MeO-PBDEs) are present in the ecosystem of the Baltic Sea. OH-PBDEs are known to be both natural products from marine environments and metabolites of the anthropogenic polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), whereas, MeO-PBDEs appear to be solely natural in origin. Polybrominated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PBDDs) are by-products formed in connection with the combustion of brominated flame retardants (BFRs), but are also indicated as natural products in a red alga (Ceramium tenuicorne) and blue mussels living in the Baltic Sea. The aims of the present investigation were to quantify the OH-PBDEs and MeO-PBDEs present in C. tenuicorne; to verify the identities of PBDDs detected previously in this species of red alga and to investigate whether cyanobacteria living in this same region of the Baltic Sea contain OH-PBDEs, MeO-PBDEs and/or PBDDs. The red alga was confirmed to contain tribromodibenzo-p-dioxins (triBDDs), by accurate mass determination and additional PBDD congeners were also detected in this sample. This is the first time that PBDDs have been identified in a red alga. The SigmaOH-PBDEs and SigmaMeO-PBDEs concentrations, present in C. tenuicorne were 150 and 4.6 ng g(-1) dry weight, respectively. In the cyanobacteria 6 OH-PBDEs, 6 MeO-PBDEs and 4 PBDDs were detected by mass spectrometry (electron capture negative ionization (ECNI)). The PBDDs and OH-PBDEs and MeO-PBDEs detected in the red alga and cyanobacteria are most likely of natural origin.     

巢湖蓝藻的机械清除工艺以及藻水分离实验研究简

对巢湖蓝藻进行机械清除以及藻水分离实验研究,实验采用的浮式围栏引导-机械清除-投加剥离液辅助机械清除工艺处理量大,除藻效率高,筛网过滤-浓缩-卧螺离心机脱水成藻泥的藻水分离工艺较为理想,藻泥含水率仅为89%。2011年5—10月在巢湖运用上述方法清除湖面水华蓝藻,共处理富藻水1.6万m³,得到藻泥970 t,累计清除蓝藻106.7 t（干重）。按照所清除蓝藻的总氮、总磷的平均含量计算,相当于从湖中移除了氮6.25 t,磷2.1 t。表明在富营养湖泊中水华蓝藻大量暴发时,采用上述方法除藻,对控制蓝藻水华污染,有效降低内源氮、磷等污染物负荷具有十分重要的作用。     

巢湖蓝藻的机械清除工艺以及藻水分离实验研究

对巢湖蓝藻进行机械清除以及藻水分离实验研究,实验采用的浮式围栏引导一机械清除．投加剥离液辅助机械清除工艺处理量大,除藻效率高,筛网过滤-浓缩-卧螺离心机脱水成藻泥的藻水分离工艺较为理想,藻泥含水率仅为89％。2011年5-10月在巢湖运用上述方法清除湖面水华蓝藻,共处理富藻水1．6万m3,得到藻泥970t,累计清除蓝藻106．7t（干重）。按照所清除蓝藻的总氮、总磷的平均含量计算,相当于从湖中移除了氮6．25t,磷2．1t。表明在富营养湖泊中水华蓝藻大量暴发时,采用上述方法除藻,对控制蓝藻水华污染,有效降低内源氮、磷等污染物负荷具有十分重要的作用。     

Managing Baltic Sea fisheries under contrasting production and predation regimes: ecosystem model analyses

Based on an earlier published ecosystem model, we have explored possible effects of different management scenarios for the Baltic Sea. The scenarios include an oligotrophication of the system, a drastic increase in the number of seals, and changes in the fishery management. From these simulations we conclude that fisheries, seals, and eutrophication all have strong and interacting impacts on the ecosystem. These interactions call for integrated management. The modeling highlights the potential for conflicts among management mandates such as flourishing fisheries, rebuilt seal populations, and substantially reduced eutrophication. The results also suggest that fisheries management reference points have to be adjusted in response to changes in the presence of natural predators or ecosystem productivity.     

On the uncertainty and confidence in decision support tools (DSTs) with insights from the Baltic Sea ecosystem

Ecosystems around the world are increasingly exposed to multiple, often interacting human activities, leading to pressures and possibly environmental state changes. Decision support tools (DSTs) can assist environmental managers and policy makers to evaluate the current status of ecosystems (i.e. assessment tools) and the consequences of alternative policies or management scenarios (i.e. planning tools) to make the best possible decision based on prevailing knowledge and uncertainties. However, to be confident in DST outcomes it is imperative that known sources of uncertainty such as sampling and measurement error, model structure, and parameter use are quantified, documented, and addressed throughout the DST set-up, calibration, and validation processes. Here we provide a brief overview of the main sources of uncertainty and methods currently available to quantify uncertainty in DST input and output. We then review 42 existing DSTs that were designed to manage anthropogenic pressures in the Baltic Sea to summarise how and what sources of uncertainties were addressed within planning and assessment tools. Based on our findings, we recommend future DST development to adhere to good modelling practise principles, and to better document and communicate uncertainty among stakeholders.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-020-01385-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Ecology,evolution, and management strategies of northern pike populations in the Baltic Sea

Baltic Sea populations of the northern pike (Esox lucius) have declined since the 1990s, and they face additional challenges due to ongoing climate change. Pike in the Baltic Sea spawn either in coastal bays or in freshwater streams and wetlands. Pike recruited in freshwater have been found to make up about 50 % of coastal pike stocks and to show natal homing, thus limiting gene flow among closely located spawning sites. Due to natal homing, sub-populations appear to be locally adapted to their freshwater recruitment environments. Management actions should therefore not involve mixing of individuals originating from different sub-populations. We offer two suggestions complying with this advice: (i) productivity of extant freshwater spawning populations can be boosted by modifying wetlands such that they promote spawning and recruitment; and (ii) new sub-populations that spawn in brackish water can potentially be created by transferring fry and imprinting them on seemingly suitable spawning environments.     

Baltic Sea ecosystem-based management under climate change: Synthesis and future challenges

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has emerged as the generally agreed strategy for managing ecosystems, with humans as integral parts of the managed system. Human activities have substantial effects on marine ecosystems, through overfishing, eutrophication, toxic pollution, habitat destruction, and climate change. It is important to advance the scientific knowledge of the cumulative, integrative, and interacting effects of these diverse activities, to support effective implementation of EBM. Based on contributions to this special issue of AMBIO, we synthesize the scientific findings into four components: pollution and legal frameworks, ecosystem processes, scale-dependent effects, and innovative tools and methods. We conclude with challenges for the future, and identify the next steps needed for successful implementation of EBM in general and specifically for the Baltic Sea.     

Reduction of Baltic Sea Nutrient Inputs and Allocation of Abatement Costs Within the Baltic Sea Catchment

The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) requires tools to simulate effects and costs of various nutrient abatement strategies. Hierarchically connected databases and models of the entire catchment have been created to allow decision makers to view scenarios via the decision support system NEST. Increased intensity in agriculture in transient countries would result in increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, particularly from Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia. Nutrient retentions are high, which means that the nutrient reduction goals of 135 000 tons N and 15 000 tons P, as formulated in the BSAP from 2007, correspond to a reduction in nutrient loadings to watersheds by 675 000 tons N and 158 000 tons P. A cost-minimization model was used to allocate nutrient reductions to measures and countries where the costs for reducing loads are low. The minimum annual cost to meet BSAP basin targets is estimated to 4.7 billion €.     

Promise and performance of agricultural nutrient management policy: Lessons from the Baltic Sea

Following decades of international collaboration to restore the Baltic Sea, we provide an assessment of the domestic implementation of measures agreed to limit diffuse agricultural pollution and the patterns of policy instruments applied. Despite the Helsinki Convention being unusually specific in detailing what measures countries should introduce, we find many shortcomings. These are most pronounced in the larger countries (Poland, Germany and Russia), while smaller countries perform better, notably Sweden and Estonia. The patterns of policy instruments applied differ, influenced by domestic politics. The limited use of complementary policy instruments suggests that other priorities overrule full and effective implementation, with engagement mirroring the advantages that a restored Baltic Sea can bring to countries. Using the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development to support farmers in managing nutrients, particularly advisory services and investments in modern manure management technologies, represents a significant opportunity for reducing agricultural pollution in most countries.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01549-3.     

Legal prerequisites for ecosystem-based management in the Baltic Sea area: The example of eutrophication

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the role of law in the management of the Baltic Sea, with focus on eutrophication. It aims to identify legal instruments or structures realizing an ecosystem approach. This also includes a discussion of the prerequisites of law as contributor to ecosystem-based management (EBM), as well as evaluation of current legal instruments. While ecosystem approach to environmental management is central to contemporary environmental management policy, it is still unclear what such an approach entails in concrete legal terms. The scope of the analysis stretches from international and EU legal regimes, to implementation and regulation within the national legal systems. A conclusion is that the management structures need further development to properly realize EBM, for example, through concretization of management measures, and clarification of duties and responsibilities for their realization.     

Arsenic in sediments from the southeastern Baltic Sea

Arsenic occurs as a persistent constituent in many of the chemical weapons dumped into the Baltic Sea; it can be used as an indicator of leakage and dispersal of released munitions to the marine environment. Total arsenic was analysed in sediment samples taken from the Lithuanian economic zone in the Baltic Sea, which included samples from the chemical munitions dumpsite in the Gotland Basin and national monitoring stations in the southeastern Baltic Sea. Arsenic concentrations in sediments ranged from 1.1 to 19.0 mg kg(-1), with an average of 3.4 mg kg(-1). Although there was evidence of slightly elevated arsenic content in sediments near the weapons dumpsite, arsenic concentrations were nevertheless quite low relative to other investigations in the Baltic and North Seas.     

Climate Warming and Pikeperch Year-Class Catches in the Baltic Sea

Climate change scenarios concerning the Baltic Sea predict increase in surface water temperatures. Pikeperch (Sander lucioperca (L.)) inhabits the coastal areas of the northern Baltic Sea and is an important fish species for the Finnish fisheries. The year-class strength of pikeperch varies strongly between years and significantly depends on water temperature. We aimed to study the effects of changing temperature conditions on pikeperch fisheries and distribution based on commercial catch data from the period 1980–2008 in the Finnish coastal areas of the Baltic Sea. The results indicated that warmer summers will produce stronger pikeperch year-classes that consequently contribute significantly to the future catches. The average temperature in June–July explained 40% of the variation in the year-class catches in the Gulf of Finland and 73% in July–August in the Archipelago Sea. During the study period, the distribution of pikeperch catches expanded toward north along the coasts of the Bothnian Sea.     

Cyclic volatile methylsiloxanes in fish from the Baltic Sea

Laboratory studies suggest that the cyclic volatile methylsiloxanes (cVMS) octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4), decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) and dodecamethylcyclohexasiloxane (D6) will persist in the aquatic environment and bioaccumulate in fish. Here these cVMS were measured in herring collected in the Swedish waters of the Baltic Sea and the North Sea and in grey seals from the Baltic Proper. D4, D5, and D6 were present in herring muscle at concentrations around 10, 200, and 40 ng g⁻¹ lipid weight, respectively. The ratio of these concentrations was similar to the relative magnitude of estimated emissions to water, suggesting that the efficiency of overall transfer through the environment and food web was similar (within a factor 2–3) for the three chemicals. The concentrations of D5 and D6 were similar in herring caught in the highly populated Baltic Proper and in the less populated Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay. The D4 concentrations were lower at the most remote northern station, suggesting that D4 is less persistent than D5 and D6. Herring from the North Sea had lower levels of all three chemicals. The concentrations of D4, D5 and D6 in grey seal blubber were lower than the lipid normalized concentrations in herring, indicating that they do not biomagnify in grey seals.