Risk assessment of safety level in university laboratories using questionnaire and Bayesian network

Accidents in university laboratories not only create a great threat to students’ safety but bring significant negative social impact. This paper investigates the university laboratory safety in China using questionnaire and Bayesian network (BN) analysis. Sixteen influencing factors for building the Bayesian net were firstly identified. A questionnaire was distributed to graduate students at 60 universities in China to acquire the probability of safe/unsafe conditions for sixteen influencing factors, based on which the conditional probability of four key factors (human, equipment and material, environment, and management) was calculated using the fuzzy triangular theory and expert judgment. The determined conditional probability was used to develop a Bayesian network model for the risk analysis of university laboratory safety and identification of the main reasons behind the accidents. Questionnaire results showed that management problems are prominent due to insufficient safety education training and weak management level of management personnel. The calculated unsafe state probability was found to be 65.2%. In the BN analysis, the human factor was found to play the most important role, followed by equipment and material factor. Sensitive and inferential analysis showed that the most sensitive factors are personnel incorrect operation, illegal operation, and experiment equipment failure. Based on the analysis, countermeasures were proposed to improve the safe management and operation of university laboratories.     

高处坠落事故的人因失误与干预策略研究

为系统分析导致高处坠落人因事故的产生机理,通过统计152起建筑工程高处坠落事故的调查与分析报告,从组织影响、安全监管、不安全行为前提条件和不安全行为等4个层次,辨识影响高处坠落事故的人为失误因素,修订人为因素分析与分类系统框架（HFACS）。设计高处坠落人因失误调查问卷,开展一线高处作业人员问卷调查,建立高处坠落人因失误结构方程模型,对导致高处坠落事故的人为失误因素进行路径分析。结果表明:各潜在因素间均呈正相关,且高处坠落人因失误事故的关键路径为资源管理不到位→安全监督培训不充分→班组管理不良→操作违规。综合各因素间相关性,提出了针对性的预防高处坠落事故的人因干预策略。     

影响铁路职工不安全行为的因素研究

职工不安全行为是导致铁路事故的重要因素之一,为了预防和控制铁路职工的不安全行为,减少人为事故的发生,从个体、环境、设备和管理4个维度对影响职工不安全行为的因素进行分析并建立铁路职工不安全行为的影响因素指标体系,应用网络层次分析法对各因素的影响程度进行量化分析。结果表明:作业制度、激励机制、安全意识、安全教育、安全文化、社会环境、个体防护设施是影响铁路职工不安全行为的主要因素,应在日常安全管理中重点关注。     

浅谈企业安全管理

事故的发生离不开人、机、环境这三个方面,然而传统的安全管理方式侧重于物的研究而对人的不安全行为重视程度不够。搞好安全管理,人的因素很重要,人是生产活动的主体,通过事故致因理论,有针对性地提出针对人的行为的安全管理措施,通过激励措施,充分调动企业员工的积极性,利用激励的作用,以提高企业的安全管理水平。     

A dynamic Bayesian networks modeling of human factors on offshore blowouts

An application of dynamic Bayesian networks for quantitative risk assessment of human factors on offshore blowouts is presented. Human error is described using human factor barrier failure (HFBF), which consists of three categories of factors, including individual factor barrier failure (IFBF), organizational factor barrier failure (OFBF) and group factor barrier failure (GFBF). The structure of human factors is illustrated using pseudo-fault tree, which is defined by incorporating the intermediate options into fault tree in order to eliminate the binary restriction. A methodology of translating pseudo-fault tree into Bayesian networks and dynamic Bayesian networks taking repair into consideration is proposed and the propagation is performed. The results show that the human factor barrier failure probability only increases within the first two weeks and rapidly reaches a stable level when the repair is considered, whereas it increases continuously when the repair action is not considered. The results of mutual information show that the important degree sequences for the three categories of human factors on HFBF are: GFBF, OFBF and IFBF. In addition, each individual human factor contributes different to the HFBF, those which contribute much should given more attention in order to improve the human reliability and prevent the potential accident occurring.     

基于HFACS-BN模型的危险化学品事故人因路径分析*

为提高危险化学品安全管理水平,收集我国134起以人为主因的危险化学品事故,构建危险化学品事故的HFACS-BN模型,并基于贝叶斯网络对危险化学品事故中的人因路径及各因素灵敏度进行分析。研究结果表明:行为违规是导致事故的最主要不安全行为;在复杂路径中,环境因素和操作者状态具有较高的灵敏度,与其相关的风险认知与处理不当是阻碍事故预防的关键因素;在非复杂路径中,操作者状态与运行计划不当具有较高的灵敏度,其所涉及的监督违规、组织过程和组织氛围,是导致危险化学品事故的根本起点,并可依此分析事故直接原因和间接原因;操作者状态在2种路径中均表现出高灵敏度,因此化工企业在人员管理上要加强关注职工状态,减少不安全行为的出现。     

基于社会网络的高校不安全因素影响机制及安全管理研究

为了探索影响高校不安全的因素及影响机制,提升高校管理水平,采用文献分析和问卷调查的方法建立基于个体、环境和管理因素间的关系概念模型。运用社会网络分析（SNA）构建关系网络模型,分析其结构与节点特性等情况并提出相应建议。研究结果表明:利用社会网络分析方法分析高校不安全因素关系问题可信度高,不安全因素间存在一定的影响关系,影响力最大的因素为高校扩招;关键不安全因素包括安全排查不全面、高校安全监管与奖惩制度不合理等;关键不安全因素可构成连锁反应链,高校安全排查不全面,导致高校安保制度不健全,进而校园周边环境复杂化;不安全因素网络的桥节点包括高校安全监管与奖惩制度不合理等,桥节点可连接反应链形成不安全因素网络。研究结果能帮助高校针对关键不安全因素进行管理,从而减少事故的发生。     

基于STPA和模糊BN的装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险分析*

为有效评估装配式建筑吊装施工中的安全风险状态,识别关键风险因素,运用系统理论过程分析方法(STPA)构建吊装施工过程中的控制反馈结构,识别导致危险的不安全控制行为,确定不安全控制行为的致因因素;基于风险因素间的关联关系构建贝叶斯网络（BN）模型,推理计算装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险状态概率,并结合反向诊断推理分析影响安全事故的风险因素;通过敏感性分析,识别装配式建筑吊装施工安全中的关键风险因素。结果表明:装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险处于低风险状态;起重机械超负荷运行、现场安全管理不到位和吊索吊具存在缺陷等因素是影响装配式建筑吊装施工安全风险的关键风险因素。     

An analysis of human factors in fifty controlled flight into terrain aviation accidents from 2007 to 2017

Introduction: Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) account for a considerable amount of fatalities when compared to other accident categories. Human factors are deemed significant contributory causes in these accidents. This paper aims to identify the human factors involved with aviation accidents that resulted in CFIT. Method: The study used the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) framework to determine the factors involved in 50 CFIT accidents from 24 counties over a 10 year period, i.e. 2007–2017. Interviews with five senior aviation safety experts were used to provide a better comprehension of the human factors affecting the flight safety. Results: The study identified 1289 individual causal and contributory human factors with unsafe actions and preconditions for unsafe actions being the main subcategories of the accidents. The study found that CFIT occur across a range of pilot experience and 44% of accidents occurred in cruise flight. Distraction, complacency and fatigue are all elements that flight crews may experience as contributors to CFIT during cruising. Conclusions: Human factors represent a major component of CFIT accidents. The analysis revealed a similar pattern of contributory and causal human factors across the various flight categories, with some noteworthy isolated variations. The prevalent factors were decision and skill-based errors along with communication, coordination and planning issues. Practical applications: Provision of specific CFIT awareness, pilot training focusing on improved decision-making and revision of basic flight skills, development of specific Global Positioning System routes for transiting high terrain areas are necessary to prevent CFIT accidents. Installation of Terrain Avoidance and Warning System and Ground Proximity Warning System and appropriate equipment training, specific CFIT Crew Resource Management training and improvement of organizational knowledge on the elements involved in CFIT are also recommended.     

地铁项目安全绩效关键影响因素分析研究

在分析研究地铁安全事故案例的基础上,识别出对地铁项目安全绩效的48个关键影响因素,将这些影响因素归为五大类,即项目参与各方对安全的影响程度、人员的不安全行为及不安全状态、材料的不安全状态、机械/设备的不安全状态和现场环境的不安全状态;采取调查问卷的方式,运用结构方程建模得出各个指标的重要度及各指标之间的相互影响。研究结果表明:"项目参与各方对安全的影响程度"和"现场环境的状态"对地铁安全绩效的贡献最大,同时,其他因素也有较强的影响,在地铁施工中应以此为重点,加强安全防范。     

违章行为与心理因素分析

据统计,“三违”是安全生产事故的主要罪魁祸首。分析众多事故的原因,无外乎是由人的不安全行为和物的不安全状态造成的,而物的不安全状态归根到底也是人的因素造成的。违章行为是“三违”的表现,它不仅与安全意识淡薄、安全观念落后、安全文化素质及安全生产管理水平低下等因素有关,更重要的原因是人的心理因素,职工的心理隐患是不安全行为的潜在帮凶。研究人的心理因素对违章行为的影响,寻找出一套强化安全心理素质、调整心理因素的方法,对于提高职工的安全意识,杜绝违章行为,减少伤亡事故,保护人民群众的健康和生命财产安全,具有重要现实意义和指导意义的。     

建筑工人不安全行为影响因子分析及控制措施研究

为有效的控制建筑工人的不安全行为,从而减少事故,须分析出建筑工人不安全行为主要影响因素,并提出针对性控制措施。从各种不安全行为中提取13个影响因子,在此基础上通过访谈和调研获得直接影响矩阵,借助决策试验和评价实验室方法(DEMATEL)计算出每个因子的影响度、原因度和中心度,由此分析出安全态度、安全技能、安全认知和安全培训在影响因素体系中最为重要,领导的重视对建筑工人的不安全行为也有很大影响。结果表明:个人因素是影响工人安全行为的主要因素,环境因素和管理因素通过影响个人因素影响工人的安全行为。最后,针对个人影响因素,提出了合理开展安全培训、加强现场行为管理、加强安全心理干预、完善用工制度等措施。     

人因失误与人不安全行为相关原理的分析与探讨

从人因失误的机理、分类和特点等方面,对人因失误与人不安全行为间的相关原理进行系统的对比分析与探讨,笔者认为,应从安全教育、技术培训、人机系统设计等方面预防人因失误,从建立和维持操作者对安全工作的兴趣、作业标准化、安全管理等方面来控制人的不安全行为。以煤矿斜井提升事故为例,说明人因失误与人不安全行为的判定原则和方法,从而为预防、控制人因事故提供理论依据。     

航空不安全事件人为因素分析R-S-TER模型的构建与应用研究

借鉴传统人为因素分析Reason模型和SHEL模型,结合TER模型的特点构建航空不安全事件人为因素分析的R-S-TER模型。分别采用Dijkstra算法和坐标轴方法应用R-S-TER模型对单个和多个航空不安全事件进行研究,找出各个不安全事件的主要事故链。运用C语言程序计算出了预防航空不安全事件的最优方案。应用R-S-TER模型可以有效地达到预防航空不安全人为因素的目的。     

公路工程施工安全事故致因模型构建

为了探究公路施工安全事故诱因及其影响关系,基于"4M"理论和事故致因"2-4"模型,识别公路工程施工安全事故致因因素并确定模型框架,运用SPSS Modeler软件对2007~2017年426起事故进行关联规则挖掘,采取路径分析与重要度分析,构建出公路工程施工安全事故致因模型。结果表明:施工单位内外部原因共同引发公路工程施工安全事故,外部原因来源于建设单位、监理单位和勘察设计单位的安全管理缺失,而施工单位内部影响因素中,人的不安全动作、物的不安全因素、不良的生产环境和自然环境是事故发生的直接原因,无效的安全监管和作业层安全素质及能力不强是间接原因,根本原因是施工程序和技术方案存在缺陷,根源原因是决策层和管理层的安全素质及能力有待提高。该模型系统展现了工程施工项目安全事故致因因素的影响关系和重要程度,为公路工程施工安全事故预防提供指导。     

基于行为安全理论的化工事故统计及分析

行为安全理论是事故分析和预防的理论和方法,应用基于行为安全理论的事故致因“2-4”模型对10起化工事故的直接、间接、根本、根源原因进行分析。结果表明:该模型是化工事故分析的有效方法。10起事故的直接原因主要为一线员工在涉及高温加热工艺、带压设备、有毒有害环境和动火作业中的违规违章操作,管理人员未建立或运行安全管理体系等不安全动作及不安全物态,且不安全物态与管理人员不安全行为有关;间接原因是一线员工缺乏岗位安全操作等知识,管理人员缺乏安全管理、技术等知识,导致其安全意识薄弱,养成不良的安全习惯;根本原因是组织安全教育等管理程序缺失和执行不力;根源原因是组织成员对安全的重要度等安全文化元素缺乏理解。     

煤矿组织安全行为对个体不安全行为的作用机理研究

为了探究煤矿组织安全行为对个体不安全行为的作用机理,总结国内外相关研究成果,提出个体不安全行为包含心理、生理、技能3个影响因素,涵盖记忆、思维、情绪、意志、性格、气质、能力、态度、知识、专业操作技能10个方面。在此基础上,构建了组织安全行为对个体不安全行为的结构方程模型（SEM）,运用统计分析方法（AMOS17.0）进行了验证分析。结果显示态度、情绪、意志、能力、专业操作技能容易受组织安全行为的影响,而性格、气质等因素由于是个体相对稳定的心理特征,受组织安全行为影响相对较小。深入研究煤矿组织安全行为对个体不安全行为的作用机理,有利于煤矿从组织安全行为入手有针对性的制定行为干预方案并控制个体不安全行为。     

Allocation of performance shaping factors in the risk assessment of an offshore installation

Offshore oil production is one of the most important human productive activities. There are many risks associated with the process of constructing a subsea well, pumping oil to the platform, and transporting it to refineries via underwater pipes or oil tankers. All actions performed by workers in those operations are influenced by specific working conditions, involving the use of complex systems. Contextual factors such as high noise, low and high temperatures and hazardous chemicals are considered to be contributors to unsafe human actions in accident analysis and also give a basis for assessing human factors in safety analysis. Some failure modes are particularly dangerous and can result in severe accidents and damage to humans, the environment and material assets. Fires and explosions on oil rigs are some of the most devastating types of offshore accidents and can result in long-term consequences. The most typical root causes related to accidents include equipment failure, human error, environmental factors, work organization, training and, communication, among others. The principal objective of this study is to propose a methodological framework to identify the factors that affect the performance of operators of an offshore unit for oil processing and treatment. In this phase, an ergonomics approach based on operators' work analysis is used as a supporting tool. After identification of factors that affect the performance of operators, a decision-making model based on AHP (analytic hierarchy process) is applied to rank and weight the principal performance shaping factors (PSFs) that influence safe operations. The next step involves the use of the SHELLO model to group the main PSFs in elements named software, hardware, environment, liveware and organization. In the last phase, a relevant accident that occurred aboard a floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel is analyzed. The allocation process of the factors that affect the operator's performance in risk assessment was developed through fuzzy logic and the ISO 17776 standard.     

煤矿企业员工不安全行为影响因子分析研究

为探讨煤矿企业员工不安全行为影响因子的相互关系,基于行为安全模型,从管理者、班组长和一线员工3个角度进行分析,确定了对行为安全有关键影响的因子群。在此基础上,采用决策试验与评价实验室(DEMATEL)方法,研究构建行为影响因子之间的依赖关系矩阵,揭示安全投入程度、安全监管机构能力、安全处罚适当性等因子对员工行为方式的影响程度,并形成煤矿员工行为方式影响因子的四分图。结果表明:安全投入程度是煤矿员工行为方式的主要影响因子和原因因子,管理者行为影响因子均是其原因因子,管理者的行为方式对企业安全状况有较大影响。     

Reason模型在空中交通管制中的应用

指出了Reason模型及人的因素分析与分类系统的不足,提出对Reason模型进行修正的思路;结合中国民航业的实际情况,构建了空中交通管制不安全事件的分析框架;对防御系统失效、不安全行为、不安全行为的条件、管理失效4个层次的缺陷进行了论述,并给予详细的实证分析.研究有助于调查分析民航空管行业不安全事件中的原因以及为空管安全管理中的危险识别提供依据.