The damping of a group of sea waves

The signals from a wave probe, a buoy-mounted sensor at the water surface, and a three-component sonic anemometer were recorded during the passage of a discrete group of waves which were travelling against a light wind. Cross spectra between the wave signals and the pressure and sonic anemometer signals were obtained and are interpreted.Bedford Institute contribution No. 226.This work forms part of a Ph.D. dissertation at the Institute of Oceanography, University of British Columbia.     

An observational study of wind-induced waving of plants

The motions of individual plants and the turbulence statistics of surface winds measured near the top of a canopy are obtained over a wheat field and a rush field. Two typical cases of motions of individual plants are presented. The displacements of the ear of wheat (the plant height is 1.0 m) showed a natural oscillation in wind speeds of 1.6 m s^–1 measured at a height of 30 cm over a wheat canopy, while displacements of the stem of a rush plant were closely related to the fluctuations of surface winds in wind speeds of 1.7 m s^–1 measured at the top of the rush plant. The power spectra of displacements of a rush plant seem to support the negative seven-third power hypothesis proposed by Inoue. The frequency responses of displacements of plants to fluctuations of the instantaneous momentum flux are also presented.     

Climate of scepticism: US newspaper coverage of the science of climate change

This two-part study integrates a quantitative review of one year of US newspaper coverage of climate science with a qualitative, comparative analysis of media-created themes and frames using a social constructivist approach. In addition to an examination of newspaper articles, this paper includes a reflexive comparison with attendant wire stories and scientific texts. Special attention is given to articles constructed with and framed by rhetoric emphasising uncertainty, controversy, and climate scepticism.     

An Observational Study of Wind-Induced Waving of Plants

The motions of individual plants and the turbulence statistics of surface winds measured near the top of a canopy are obtained over a wheat field and a rush field. Two typical cases of motions of individual plants are presented. The displacements of the ear of wheat (the plant height is 1.0 m) showed a natural oscillation in wind speeds of 1.6 m s⁻¹ measured at a height of 30 cm over a wheat canopy, while displacements of the stem of a rush plant were closely related to the fluctuations of surface winds in wind speeds of 1.7 m s⁻¹ measured at the top of the rush plant. The power spectra of displacements of a rush plant seem to support the negative seven-third power hypothesis proposed by Inoue. The frequency responses of displacements of plants to fluctuations of the instantaneous momentum flux are also presented.     

Elements of the theory of wavelike formation of cohesive mudflows in erosion areas

Presented are the dependences that allow judging as a rough approximation about the process of accumulation of the cohesive mud mass in mudflow areas till the complete formation of a mudflow in the erosion inset of the main riverbed of a mudflow type.     

A Gcm Study of the Impact of Greenhouse Gas Increase on the Frequency of Occurrence of Tropical Cyclones

In order to make inferences on the possible future changes of tropical cyclogenesis frequency, we apply the diagnostic computation of the Yearly Genesis Parameter (YGP) proposed by Gray (1975) to the large-scale fields simulated by a GCM. The YGP is an empirical diagnostic of the frequency of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) based on six physical parameters computed from seasonal means of atmospheric and oceanic variables. In this paper, we apply the YGP diagnostic to the results of three climate simulations performed with the atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) of Météo-France: ARPEGE-Climat. In a control simulation of the current climate, it is shown that the model has a realistic tropical climatology and that the computed YGP reproduces the geographical distribution of the tropical cyclogenesis frequency. The YGP is then applied to two simulations corresponding to two scenarios of doubled carbon dioxide concentration. The two experiments differ by the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) used as a lower boundary condition. In both simulations the YGP gives a large increase of total cyclogenesis frequency, but without extension of the area of possible cyclone genesis. The increase in YGP is due essentially to the contribution of the ocean thermal energy factor in the thermodynamical potential. The dynamical parameters, on the contrary, limit the cyclogenesis increase and are a major explanation of the difference between the two experiments. This is in agreement with the results of the previous similar study of Ryan et al. (1992) concerning the importance of large-scale atmospheric circulation modifications on tropical cyclone climatology. After discussing the observed relationships between ocean surface temperature and large-scale convection, and questioning the use of a fixed temperature threshold in the diagnosis of tropical cyclone frequency, we propose a modification to the YGP consisting in replacing the thermodynamical potential by a term proportional to the convective precipitation computed by the GCM. For the simulation of the present climate this modification affects only marginally the geographical distribution of tropical cyclone genesis, but for the doubled CO₂ case, the modified YGP diagnoses a more limited increase in TC genesis in the Northern Hemisphere and a small reduction in the Southern Hemisphere, which seems in better agreement with other recent modelling studies with high resolution climate models (Bengtsson et al., 1996). We conclude that the modified YGP based on convective precipitation could serve as a useful diagnostic of tropical cyclone genesis, and should be tested in simulations with other GCMs.     

气候变化对家燕物候期的影响分析

对镇江地区1984—2019年家燕物候资料(始见、绝见期)及同期气温、降水、日照等气象资料对比分析,结果表明:近36 a镇江地区家燕始见期在波动变化中呈提前的趋势,以4 d/10 a的速率提前.绝见期在波动变化中呈推后的趋势,以5 d/10 a的速率推后.间隔期在波动变化中呈延长的趋势,以9 d/10 a的速率延长;近...     

A study of the effect of topography on the merging of vortices

Eight sets of numerical experiments are performed in 48 hours of integtation by using a barotropic primitive equation model with a topographic term so as to investigate the effect of topography on the merging of vortices. It is pointed out that the introduction of topography may change the track of vortices,and it causes the low vortices and vorticity lumps to be detained on the southeast side of the topography,thus creating a favorable condition for the merging of the low vortex and vorticity lumps. It is also shown that the effect of topography may cause double mergers of vortices in a horizontally shearing basic flow,and it can strengthen the low vortex remarkably.     

Identification of zones of atmospheric fronts as a problem of postprocessing the results of numerical prediction

Presented is a review of the results of the studies that have been carried out in recent 15 years at the Hydrometcenter of Russia and deal with the objective analysis of atmospheric fronts and with diagnostic computations on the base of the results obtained. A unique experiment on the quantitative estimation of the measure of subjectivity of the frontal analysis carried out by weather forecasters in operational mode was accomplished in the process of the method development. Differences turned out to be so significant that no concrete synoptic archive can be considered as a source of actual data on the position of fronts. At the same time, the degree of agreement between different forecasters concerning the position of primary cold and warm fronts remains practically significant. The statistical method of objective analysis of atmospheric frontal zones is worked out as a method of postprocessing the results of numerical forecast (objective analysis) of the fields of pressure (geopotential), temperature, and humidity. The proposed method was operationally tested and recommended for the operational use by the Roshydromet Central Methodological Committee for Hydrometeorological and Heliophysical Forecasts. The data on precipitation at the stations (a degree of precipitation intensity on the front characterizes its activity) are used as a predictant (criterion of the absence or presence of a front). The frontal parameter initially obtained as a probability of the fact that the forecaster draws the front through the given grid cell is (in its physical essence) a quantitative characteristic of baroclinity near the surface and in the layers of 850-500 and 925-700 hPa and of cyclonicity of the surface pressure field. This variable turned out to be an effective diagnostic characteristic of baroclinic forcing of vertical circulations and formation of clouds and precipitation in frontal zones. The spectra of the frequency of precipitation of various intensity for different seasons and regions of the European part of the former USSR are constructed using the long-term data on two main characteristics of precipitation forcing, namely, the frontal parameter and the height of the convection level. Given are other potential application areas of the frontal parameter including the verification of numerical models.     

Numerical convergence of the dynamics of a GCM

 Atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) are characterized by many features but especially by: (1) the manner of discretizing the governing equations and of representing the variables involved at a given resolution, and (2) the manner of parameterizing unresolved physical processes in terms of those resolved variables. These two aspects of model formulation are not independent and it is difficult to untangle their intertwined effects when assessing model performance. The attempt here is to separate these aspects of GCM behaviour and to ask, “Given a perfect parameterization of the physical processes in a model, what resolution is needed to capture the dominant dynamical aspects of the atmospheric climate?” Alternatively, “At what resolution do the dynamics of a GCM converge”? The perfect parameterization approach assumes that the calculation of the physical terms returns the “correct” result at all resolutions. In the idealized case, a time-independent forcing is one of the simplest that satisfies this condition. However, experiments show that it is difficult for the dynamics of a GCM to balance a time-independent forcing with atmosphere-like flows and structures. The model requires, and the atmosphere presumably includes, physical feedback mechanisms which act so as to maintain the kinds of flows and structures that are observed. Resolution experiments are performed with a simplified forcing function for the thermodynamic equation which combines a dominant time-independent specified forcing with a weak linear relaxation feedback. These experiments show that the dynamics of the GCM have essentially converged at T32 and certainly by T63 which is the next resolution considered. This is shown by the constancy of structures, variances, covariances, transports and energy budgets with increasing resolution. Experiments with an alternative forcing proposed by Held and Suarez, which has the form of a linear relaxation, show somewhat less evidence of convergence at these resolutions. In both cases the “physics” are known by assumption. However, the form and nature of the forcing is different, as is the behaviour with resolution. The implication for the real system is that the resolution required for simulating the dynamical aspects of climate is rather modest. The simulated climate does, however, apparently depend on the ability to correctly and consistently parameterize the physical processes in a GCM, involving both forcing and feedback mechanisms, as a function of resolution. Received 19 January 1996/Accepted 22 August 1996     

北极涛动对河南省降水的可能影响

采用连续小波变换和交叉小波变换方法,分析了北极涛动指数和河南省月降水距平序列的时频变化特征,并讨论了近50多年来北极涛动对河南省降水的可能影响。结果表明,北极涛动指数和河南省降水距平序列中都存在着不同时间尺度的周期振荡,且时域中的分布特征和振荡强度也不尽相同;两者之间在6~8 a、12~16 a和25 a以上尺度的周期振荡呈正相关,而在9~11 a和16~24 a尺度上表现为负相关关系。     

WINDEX在民航济南机场的应用举例

WINDEX是1994年McCann提出的预报下击暴流潜势的一个新指数。通过分析2001年7月2日的一次强雷暴带来的下击暴流，发现WINDEX在我国某些地区(例如济南)可能有一定用处，值得进一步尝试。     

Characterisation and Simulation of the Multiscaling Properties of the Energy-Containing Scales of Horizontal Surface-Layer Winds

The multiscaling statistics of atmospheric surface-layer winds at low wavenumbers above farmland and in the lee of a mountain range were examined using a hot-wire and lightweight cup anemometer. It was found that the horizontal velocity spectra could be broken into high and low-wavenumber regimes according to the parameters given by this analysis. The low-wavenumber end of the spectrum possessed a spectral slope parameter that varied between values of 0.8 and 1.35 at the farmland site during the period of the experiment, and the high-wavenumber end – corresponding to the inertial range – possessed a spectral slope slightly greater than -5/3. The larger values for this parameter for the low-wavenumber end appeared to coincide with unstable conditions. In the lee of the mountain range, the low-wavenumber spectral slope parameter was larger still, at 1.45. The low-wavenumber signals over farmland were much less intermittent than inertial-range signals, but in the lee of the mountain range the intermittency increased. From this analysis, it was shown that the statistical properties of the recorded wind signal could be reproduced using a bounded random multiplicative cascade. The model was successfully used to simulate the wind velocity field directly, rather than simulating the energy dissipation field. Since the spectral slope parameter for low wavenumbers appeared to be a function of atmospheric stability, the method presented is a simple way of generating wind signals characteristic of a variety of atmospheric conditions.     

用曙暮光时的天光光强反演平流层气溶胶散射系数廓线

本文基于对曙暮光问题的系列研究,提出一个用曙暮光时的光强观测资料反演平流层气溶胶垂直分布的方案.然后在用Monte-Carlo计算程序模拟分析Koomen等人1951年曙暮光观测资料的基础上,对此资料实施了反演试验,并给出了反演基本结果和误差分析.结果表明此法是有效的,能为平流层气溶胶过去几十年的长期变化提供反演方法.     

On aspects of the concept of radiative forcing

 The concept of radiative forcing has been extensively used as an indicator of the potential importance of climate change mechanisms. It allows a first order estimate of the global-mean surface temperature change; and it is possible to compare forcings from different mechanisms, on the assumption that similar global-mean forcings produce similar global-mean surface temperature changes. This study illustrates two circumstances where simple models show that the conventional definition of radiative forcing needs refining. These problems arise mainly with the calculation of forcing due to stratospheric ozone depletion. The first part uses simple arguments to produce an alternative definition of radiative forcing, using a time-dependent stratospheric adjustment method, which can give different forcings from those calculated using the standard definition. A seasonally varying ozone depletion can produce a quite different seasonal evolution of forcing than fixed dynamical heating arguments would suggest. This is especially true of an idealised and extreme “Antarctic ozone hole” type scenario where a sudden loss of ozone is followed by a sudden recovery. However, for observed ozone changes the annually averaged forcing is usually within 5% of the forcing calculated using the fixed dynamical heating approximation. Another problem with the accepted view of radiative forcing arises from the definition of the tropopause considered in the second part of this study. For a correct radiative forcing estimate the “tropopause” needs to separate the atmosphere into regions with a purely radiative response and those with a radiative-convective response. From radiative-convective model results it is found that radiative equilibrium conditions persist for several kilometres below the tropopause (the tropopause being defined as where the lapse rate reaches 2 K km^-1). This region needs to be included in stratospheric adjustment calculations for an accurate calculation of forcing, as it is only the region between the surface and the top of the convection that can be considered as a single, forced, system. Including temperature changes in this region has a very large effect on stratospheric ozone forcing estimates, and can reduce the magnitude of the forcing by more than a factor of two. Although these experiments are performed using simple climate models, the results are of equal importance for the analysis of forcing-response relationships using general circulation models. Received: 25 October 1996/Accepted: 14 April 1997     

SWAN系统在一次暴雨天气过程分析中的应用

对2011年7月25-26日镇江市暴雨天气过程的天气背景、稳定指数和垂直风切变进行分析,利用SWAN系统研究CAPPI回波和液态水含量的相关演变特征,并检验SWAN系统下TITAN风暴识别和追踪技术的精度和水平,得出结论:7月25-26日镇江市暴雨天气过程有着较好的动力、水汽、层结不稳定以及垂直风切变条件,构成了产生大风暴雨天气的有利环境场.两个降水集中时段风暴特征有所不同,第1阶段为飑线影响,第2阶段为风暴群影响,二者均包含了普通单体和强降水超级单体,此两种单体均具有中心强度大、回波顶高度高的特征.液态水含量的演变与风暴强度吻合较好.TITAN系统对风暴未来1h内位置和轮廓预报没有30 min内预报精确度高,对处在发展、成熟阶段的风暴,30 min跟踪和预报与实况接近,对处在减弱阶段的风暴,较实况则略有滞后.     

Stabilization of Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases

Given the present commitment of the developed countries according to the Kyoto Protocol, most published scenarios demonstrate that global greenhouse gases concentrations would not be stabilized at any level. In order to stabilize these concentrations, a deeper global involvement is needed. Taking Israel as an example of a `recently-developed' country, we assess the role that such countries could play by assuming voluntary commitments in strengthening global involvement. This case as a model may encourage a global scheme for curbing carbon emissions, in which the more developed countries assume a stronger role and the less developed countries participate according to the principle of common but differentiated responsibility. The scheme builds on the inverse relation that exists between the per capita gross domestic product and the rate of increase of emissions due to economic growth. According to this theoretical scheme, the voluntary commitments assumed by the `recently-developed' countries encourage the more developed countries to deepen their involvement by assuming more stringent reductions of emissions at home and transferring technological and financial means to the less developed countries. The proposed scheme would enable non-Annex I countries, both `recently-developed' countries and less developed countries, to participate much earlier in the net mitigation of greenhouse gases.     

On the use of marine radar imagery for estimation of properties of the directional spectrum of the sea surface

Abstract

The “sea clutter” observable on a standard marine navigation radar has long been recognized as a potential source of information about sea state. In the last decade a number of researchers have published “directional wave spectra” calculated from marine radar images. Our group has continued this line of research using a unique radar system that digitizes and stores radar images eight bits deep directly related to the strength of the radar backscatter.

Our system was deployed on the CSS Hudson during the Grand Banks ERS‐1 SAR Wave Spectrum Validation Experiment cruise in November 1991. We collected in excess of 3000 sea surface backscatter images. From this dataset we have produced a number of directional spectra in an effort to understand the performance of the sensor and to compare it with other wave determining instruments and models.

Analysis has shown a strong azimuthal asymmetry both in the strength of the backscattered signal and in the relative strength of spectral peaks. This asymmetry is similar inform to that observed in scatterometer data. Unbiased estimation of the “true” image spectrum requires removal of these asymmetries. This estimation has been accomplished through calculation and removal of a non‐linear multi‐parameter least‐squares model of the backscatter from each image, and averaging of spectra from many look directions. The resulting spectra compare favourably with those calculated from directional wave buoy data, satellite and aircraft SARs and other directional wave measurements and models.     

Estimation of impact of climate change on the peak discharge probability of the river Rhine

RHINEFLOW is a GIS based water balance model that has been developed to study the changes in the water balance compartments of the river Rhine basin on a monthly time basis. The model has been designed to study the sensitivity of the Rhine discharge to a climate change. The calculated discharge has been calibrated and validated on the period 1956 to 1980. For this period the model efficiency of RHINEFLOW is between 0.74 and 0.81 both for the entire Rhine and for its tributaries. Also calculated values for variations in other compartments, e.g. snow storage and actual evapotranspiration, were in good agreement with the measured values.Since a high correlation between monthly discharge and peak discharge was found for the period 1900–1980 The RHINEFLOW model is used to assess the probability of exceedence for discharge peaks under possible future climate conditions.The probabilities of exceedence were calculated from the conditional probabilities of peak discharges for a series of 15 classes of monthly discharges. Comparison of a calculated frequency distribution of high discharge peaks with observed peaks in a test series showed that the method performs well.Scenarios for temperature changes between 0 °C and plus 4 °C and precipitation changes between plus 20% and minus 20% have been applied. Within this range flood frequencies are more sensitive for a precipitation change than for a temperature change. The present two-year return period peak flow (6500–7000 m³/s) decreases by about 6% due to a temperature rise of 4 °C; a precipitation decrease of 20% leads to 30% lower two-year peaks whilst 20% precipitation increase raises them by approximately 30%.Application of a Business As Usual (BAU) and an Accelerated Policy (AP) climate scenario resulted in a significant increase in probability of peak flows for the BAU scenario, while for the AP scenario no significant change could be found. Due to sampling errors, accurate estimations of recurrence times of discharge peaks7000 m³/s require a longer sampling time series than 90 years. For management purposes the method can be applied to estimate changes of probabilities of events with a relatively long recurrence time.