Differential Prediction in the Use of the SAT and High School Grades in Predicting College Performance: Joint Effects of Race and Language

The literature on differential prediction of college performance of racial/ethnic minority students for standardized tests and high school grades indicates the use of these predictors often results in overprediction of minority student performance. However, these studies typically involve native English‐speaking students. In contrast, a smaller literature on language proficiency suggests academic performance of those with more limited English language proficiency may be underpredicted by standardized tests. These two literatures have not been well integrated, despite the fact that a number of racial/ethnic minority groups within the United States contain recent immigrant populations or heritage language speakers. This study investigates the joint role of race/ethnicity and language proficiency in Hispanic, Asian, and White ethnic groups across three educational admissions systems (SAT, HSGPA, and their composite) in predicting freshman grades. Our results indicate that language may differentially affect academic outcomes for different racial/ethnic subgroups. The SAT loses predictive power for Asian and White students who speak another best language, whereas it does not for Hispanic students who speak another best language. The differential prediction of college grades of linguistic minorities within racial/ethnic minority subgroups appears to be driven by the verbally loaded subtests of standardized tests but is largely unrelated to quantitative tests.     

SAT Validity for Linguistic Minorities at the University of California, Santa Barbara

The validity of the SAT as an admissions criterion for Latinos and Asian Americans who are not native English speakers was examined. The analyses, based on 1997 and 1998 UCSB freshmen, focused on the effectiveness of SAT scores and high school grade-point average (HSGPA) in predicting college freshman grade-point average (FGPA). When regression equations were estimated based on all students combined, some systematic prediction errors occurred. For language minorities, using only high school grades as a predictor led to predicted FGPAs that tended to exceed actual FGPAs, particularly for Latinos. Including SAT scores in the equation notably reduced prediction bias. Further analyses showed that, while HSGPA had the highest correlation with FGPA for most groups, SAT verbal score was the strongest predictor of FGPA for language minorities in 1998. An overriding conclusion is that combining data across language groups can obscure important test validity information.     

Contextual Factors Associated With the Validity of SAT Scores and High School GPA for Predicting First-Year College Grades

Prior research has shown that there is substantial variability in the degree to which the SAT and high school grade point average (HSGPA) predict 1st-year college performance at different institutions. This article demonstrates the usefulness of multilevel modeling as a tool to uncover institutional characteristics that are associated with this variability. The results revealed that the predictive validity of HSGPA decreased as mean total SAT (i.e., sum of the three SAT sections) score at an institution increased and as the proportion of White freshmen increased. The predictive validity of the three SAT sections (critical reading, mathematics, and writing) varied differently as a function of different institution-level variables. These results suggest that the estimates of validity obtained and aggregated from multiple institutions may not accurately reflect the unique contextual factors that influence the predictive validity of HSGPA and SAT scores at a particular institution.     

Substituting SAT II: Subject Tests for SAT I: Reasoning Tests: Impact on Admitted Class Composition and Quality

Using data from a sample of 10 colleges at which most students had taken both SAT I: Reasoning tests and SAT II: Subject tests, we simulated the effects of making selection decisions using SAT II scores in place of SAT I scores. Specifically, we treated the students in each college as forming the applicant pool for a more select college, and then selected the top two thirds (and top one third) of the students using high school grade point average combined with either SAT I scores or the average of SAT II scores. Success rates, in terms of first-year grade point averages, were virtually identical for students selected by the different models. The percentage of African American, Asian American, and White students selected varied only slightly across models. Appreciably more Mexican American and Other Latino students were selected with the model that used SAT II scores in place of SAT I scores because these students submitted subject test scores for the Spanish test on which they had high scores.     

The Role of Socioeconomic Status in SAT–Freshman Grade Relationships Across Gender and Racial Subgroups

Recent research has shown that admissions tests retain the vast majority of their predictive power after controlling for socioeconomic status (SES), and that SES provides only a slight increment over SAT and high school grades (high school grade point average [HSGPA]) in predicting academic performance. To address the possibility that these overall analyses obscure differences by race/ethnicity or gender, we examine the role of SES in the test‒grade relationship for men and women as well as for various racial/ethnic subgroups within the United States. For each subgroup, the test‒grade relationship is only slightly diminished when controlling for SES. Further, SES is a substantially less powerful predictor of academic performance than both SAT and HSGPA. Among the indicators of SES (i.e., father's education, mother's education, and parental income), father's education appears to be strongest predictor of freshman grades across subgroups, with the exception of the Asian subgroup. In general, SES appears to behave similarly across subgroups in the prediction of freshman grades with SAT scores and HSGPA.     

Parental Academic Socialization: Effects of home‐based parental involvement on locus of control across U.S. ethnic groups

This study investigates the relations between three academic socialisation processes and late adolescents’ internal locus of control. A sample of 249 college students from four ethnic groups completed three measures. Three factors explained 46.44% of the variance in academic socialisation, and the following differences were found: emotional support and active involvement were rated by all as the most frequent practices used by parents, and European Americans rated these significantly higher than did Asian Americans, who reported the highest mean score on “demandingness” practices. Separate multiple regression analyses suggested that among Asian Americans and European Americans, emotional support practices predicted internal locus of control; however, this model was not significant among Latinos and African Americans. Results suggest that academic socialisation practices operate differentially on psychological outcomes for adolescents in different ethnic groups, extending our knowledge of how culture shapes parenting and parent–child relationships.     

Examination of Indices of High School Performance Based on the Graded Response Model

We examined summary indices of high school performance (coursework, grades, and test scores) based on the graded response model (GRM). The indices varied by inclusion of ACT test scores and whether high school courses were constrained to have the same difficulty and discrimination across groups of schools. The indices were examined with respect to skewness, incremental prediction of college degree attainment, and differences across racial/ethnic and socioeconomic subgroups. The most difficult high school courses to earn an “A” grade included calculus, chemistry, trigonometry, other advanced math, physics, algebra 2, and geometry. The GRM‐based indices were less skewed than simple high school grade point average (HSGPA) and had higher correlations with ACT Composite score. The index that included ACT test scores and allowed item parameters to vary by school group was most predictive of college degree attainment, but had larger subgroup differences. Implications for implementing multiple measure models for college readiness are discussed.     

Predicting College Performance of American Indians: A Large‐Sample Examination of the SAT

Extensive research has examined the validity and fairness of standardized tests in academic admissions. However, due to their underrepresentation in higher education, American Indians have gained much less attention in this research. In the present study, we examined for American Indian students (1) group differences on SAT scores, (2) the predictive and incremental validity of SAT over high school grades, (3) the effect of socioeconomic status on SAT validity, (4) differential prediction in the use of SAT scores, and (5) potential omitted variables that could explain differential prediction for American Indian students. Results provided evidence of predictive and incremental validity of SAT scores, and the validity of SAT scores was largely independent of socioeconomic status. Overprediction was found when using SAT scores to predict college performance and it was reduced when including high school grades as an additional predictor. This study provides substantial evidence of the validity and fairness of SAT scores for American Indians.     

Differential Item Functioning for Minority Examinees on the SAT

The standardization approach to assessing differential item functioning (DIF), including standardized distractor analysis, is described. The results of studies conducted on Asian Americans, Hispanics (Mexican Americans and Puerto Ricans), and Blacks on the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) are described and then synthesized across studies. Where the groups were limited to include only examinees who spoke English as their best language, very few items across forms and ethnic groups exhibited large DIF. Major findings include evidence of differential speededness (where minority examinees did not complete SAT-Verbal sections at the same rate as White students with comparable SAT-Verbal scores) for Blacks and Hispanics and, when the item content is of special interest, advantages for the relevant ethnic group. In addition, homographs tend to disadvantage all three ethnic groups, but the effect of vertical relationships in analogy items are not as consistent. Although these findings are important in understanding DIF, they do not seem to account for all differences. Other variables related to DIF still need to be identified. Furthermore, these findings are seen as tentative until corroborated by studies using controlled data collection designs.     

Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Collegiate Cognitive Gains: A Multilevel Analysis of Institutional Influences on Learning and its Equitable Distribution

Although numerous studies have examined racial/ethnic inequalities in collegiate student outcomes, serious attention to disparities in post-secondary student learning has emerged only recently. Using a national sample of 35,000 college seniors and 250 diverse institutions from the Collegiate Learning Assessment, this study investigates the role of institutional characteristics in promoting the development of higher-order cognitive skills and the equitable distribution of these skills by student racial/ethnic background. Using three-level hierarchical linear models within an analysis of covariance framework, we find that the initial academic gaps that separate African American students from their white peers widen even further during college. Although substantial academic disparities exist between Hispanic and white students at both college entry and exit, Hispanic and white students gain academic skills at statistically comparable rates. Importantly, racial/ethnic differences in cognitive development vary across institutions partly as a function of institutional characteristics. In particular, even after accounting for a host of student- and institution-level characteristics, African American/white and Hispanic/white inequalities are somewhat smaller at colleges that enroll larger proportions of non-white students. However, these benefits of increased minority enrollments are contingent upon the academic backgrounds of students’ peers, with academically weaker student enrollments in some cases negating the benefits of increased racial/ethnic diversity.     

Predicting predictability: The influence of student and institutional characteristics on the prediction of grades

This study examined the statistical and institutional influences on the prediction of first-year college grades, using data from College Board validity studies and the College Handbook. The criterion was the size of the multiple correlation between academic predictors and first-year college grades. The independent variables were the statistical data of the validity study and college characteristics. In general, the extent of the variation of the academic ability of the students was positively related to the size of the multiple correlation, and the heterogeneity of the programs and experience of college negatively related. Further analyses investigated the characteristics that were associated with the greater or lesser efficiency of the predictors (SAT Verbal and Mathematical and high school grades.)     

Predicting the Grades of Low-Income–Ethnic-Minority Students From Teacher-Student Discrepancies in Reported Motivation

The aims of this study were to investigate the effects of discrepancies between teachers' perceptions of students' motivation and students' reports of their motivation on math and English grades and to identify possible gender and ethnic differences. Participants included 215 low-income, ethnic-minority students and their teachers in academically struggling schools. Discrepancy in motivation ratings accounted for a significant amount of variation in final grades. This teacher-student discrepancy effect was larger than both the effect of students' recent standardized test scores and the effect of self-efficacy in both subjects. Girls were found to attract positive teacher bias, but their grades were not differentially affected. Differences in teacher-student discrepancy effects between African American and Latino students were not found.     

The Home Environments of Children in the United States Part I: Variations by Age, Ethnicity, and Poverty Status

Although measures of the home environment have gained wide acceptance in the child development literature, what constitutes the "average" or 'typical" home environment in the United States, and how this differs across ethnic groups and poverty status is not known. Item-level data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth on four age-related versions of the Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment-Short Form (HOME-SF) from five biennial assessments (1986-1994) were analyzed for the total sample and for four major ethnic groups: European Americans, Asian Americans, African Americans, and Hispanic Americans. The percentages of homes receiving credit on each item of all four versions of the HOME-SF are described. For the majority of items at all four age levels differences between poor and nonpoor families were noted. Differences were also obtained among African American, European American, and Hispanic American families, but the magnitude of the effect for poverty status was greater than for ethnicity, and usually absorbed most of the ethnic group effects on HOME-SF items. For every item at every age, the effects of poverty were proportional across European American, African American, and Hispanic American groups.     

The value of using early-career earnings data in the College Scorecard to guide college choices

Policymakers are increasingly including early-career earnings data in consumer-facing college search tools to help students and families make more informed postsecondary education decisions. We offer new evidence on the degree to which existing college-specific earnings data equip consumers with useful information by documenting the level of selection bias in the earnings metrics reported in the U.S. Department of Education's College Scorecard. Given growing interest in reporting earnings by college and major, we focus on the degree to which earnings differences across four-year colleges and universities can be explained by differences in major composition across institutions. We estimate that more than 70% of the variation in median earnings across institutions is explained by observable factors, and accounting for differences in major composition explains 20–30% of the variation in earnings over and above institutional selectivity and student composition. We also identify large variations in the distribution of earnings within colleges; as a result, comparisons of early-career earnings can be extremely sensitive to whether the median, 25th, or 75th percentiles are presented. Taken together, our findings indicate that consumers can easily draw misleading conclusions about institutional quality when using publicly available earnings data to compare institutions.     

The Effect of High School Socioeconomic Status on the Predictive Validity of SAT Scores and High School Grade‐Point Average

Research has often found that, when high school grades and SAT scores are used to predict first‐year college grade‐point average (FGPA) via regression analysis, African‐American and Latino students, are, on average, predicted to earn higher FGPAs than they actually do. Under various plausible models, this phenomenon can be explained in terms of the unreliability of predictor variables. Attributing overprediction to measurement error, however, is not fully satisfactory: Might the measurement errors in the predictor variables be systematic in part, and could they be reduced? The research hypothesis in the current study was that the overprediction of Latino and African‐American performance occurs, at least in part, because these students are more likely than White students to attend high schools with fewer resources. The study provided some support for this hypothesis and showed that the prediction of college grades can be improved using information about high school socioeconomic status. An interesting peripheral finding was that grades provided by students’ high schools were stronger predictors of FGPA than were students’ self‐reported high school grades. Correlations between the two types of high school grades (computed for each of 18 colleges) ranged from .59 to .85.     

All Validities are Not Created Equal: Determinants of Variation in SAT Validity Across Schools

Previous research has demonstrated that cognitive test validities are generalizable and predictive of academic performance across situations. However, even after accounting for statistical artifacts (e.g., sampling error, range restriction, criterion reliability), substantial variability often remains around estimates of cognitive test–performance relationships suggesting the presence of additional moderators. In the present study, we examine the sources of institutional variation in Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) validity across a sample of 110 institutions. Institutional characteristics moderated the size of SAT validities, such that more selective schools and schools that emphasize traditional assessment techniques (i.e., school records, standardized tests) showed higher SAT validities while schools that were larger and where students demonstrated more financial need, schools that emphasized the usage of alternative assessment techniques (i.e., essays, letters of recommendations, extracurricular activities), and schools that enrolled higher percentages of historically disadvantaged minority students generally exhibited lower SAT validities. Future directions in the understanding of situational influences on SAT–grade point average validities are discussed.     

Academic and diversity consequences of affirmative action in Brazil

Since 2001, Brazilian universities have been implementing affirmative-action policies to correct the racial, social and ethnic disparities in university admissions. An examination of the social-inclusion policies at three public universities in Brazil – the University of Brasilia, the Federal University of Bahia and the State University of Campinas – was undertaken to analyse: (1) the impact of affirmative-action policies on campus diversity, (2) the academic performance of quota and non-quota students and (3) the predictive validity of the college entrance exam as a selection criterion. Using institutional enrolment, course grades in several academic programmes and retention indicators, the study finds that quota students do reasonably well and thus do not diminish the quality of their institutions. Academic performance varies by programme of study but, in general, variation is surprisingly slight. This latter finding suggests that the predictive validity of the college entrance exam is weak.     

Public Versus Private Colleges: Political Participation of College Graduates

Using data from the Baccalaureate and Beyond Longitudinal Study (B&B:93/03) of College Graduates, we use structural equation modeling to model the relationships between college major, values held in college, collegiate community service participation, and the post-college political participation of college graduates by public versus private institutions. We use Holland’s Theory of person-environment fit as lens to understand differences in political participation across majors and institutional contexts. Over a 10-year period immediately after receiving the baccalaureate, we find that choice of major and individual values are differentially associated with post-college political participation for private institution graduates when compared to the counterparts at public institutions. We relate our findings to extant literature that highlights the differences in institutional characteristics between public and private colleges and socialization patterns of undergraduates that may inform differences in post-college political participation. Implications for future research are also offered.     

EFFECTIVENESS OF HIGH SCHOOL GRADES FOR PREDICTING COLLEGE GRADES OF BLACK STUDENTS: A REVIEW AND DISCUSSION1

The purpose of this study was to reexamine the value of high school grades (relative to standardized test scores) for predicting college grades of black students. Data from previous studies and from a predominantly black university were analyzed. Results tend to indicate that high school grades do not consistently make the greatest contribution in predicting college grades of black students, perhaps particularly of men, whereas they do for whites. Unreliability of grade reporting, invalidity of grades in high school, restriction in range due to selection processes, and intergroup differences in personality characteristics were advanced to explain this phenomenon. Further research on this problem was suggested in view of the fact that many selective institutions are relying heavily on high school grades in their selection of black students.     

Factors Influencing Positive Interactions Across Race for African American, Asian American, Latino, and White College Students

This study explores the various factors that promote positive interactions across race for African American, Asian American, Latino, and White college students. A longitudinal survey was administered to all incoming students at nine public institutions (with a follow-up survey given at the end of their second year), examining activities related to cross-racial interaction and outcomes. This knowledge will be useful for college administrators, institutional researchers, and faculty as they work to meet the challenge of preparing students for a pluralistic society. The results of this study begin to delineate the conditions under which positive intergroup relations can be fostered in college and the key factors that inhibit or restrain the benefits such interactions bring to the development of students for a diverse workplace and pluralistic democracy.