高粱蚜发生程度的预测研究

通过１８年的田间调查和研究,得知高粱蚜的发生程度与麦蚜的发生程度呈负相关（ｒ＝－０．８９９８）,因此即可用麦蚜发生程度预测后期高粱蚜的发生程度,预测回归式为ｙ＝５．９０１１－０．９８７４ｘ。该预报方法较常规测报法在时间上提早了１个月。经多年检验,预报准确率颇高。     

油松毛虫发生的非线性灰色预测模型

<正> 油松毛虫Dendrolimus tabulaeformis Ts-ai et Liu是森林主要害虫之一。它的种群数量动态变化是上一年度种群数量动态变化的暂时结束,又是下一年度种群数量动态变化的重新开始。屠泉洪等利用灰色系统理论建立一阶线性灰色系统的动态模型[简称GM(1,1)模     

高粱抗高粱蚜的生化基础

高粱中的可溶性总氮、可溶性总糖和绝大部分游离氨基酸,特别是必需氨基酸,在感性品种中的含量显著地比抗性品种中的含量高.感性品种叶液微偏酸,抗性品种近中性.多元回归分析表明,高梁对高粱蚜Melanaphis sacchari(Zehntner)的抗性与可溶性总氮、可溶性总糖和游离氨基酸的含量呈反相关.     

棉铃虫发生与北太平洋海温的遥相关 及其长期灾变预警

本文分析了山东郓城26年（1974～1999）、德州22年（1978～1999）和江苏丰县20年（1980～1999）棉铃虫百株累计卵量与北太平洋海温的遥相关关系及其时空动态规律,并选出相关显著程度P<0.05概率水平、空间分布范围较大、持续时间较长而稳定的组合作为关键预测因子组建了郓城、德州棉铃虫三代卵,丰县棉铃虫二代卵的预测模型,并筛选出最优长期灾变预警模型。结果表明：① 北太平洋海温场与棉铃虫种群数量消长存在显著或极显著的遥相关区域,其位置及范围随时间变化,但存在若干呈现出空间稳定性和时间持续性的大面积相关显著区域。② 郓城棉铃虫三代卵量和丰县棉铃虫二代卵量与北太平洋海温场的相关区分布形式很相似,与前两年1月份北太平洋月平均海温场存在大片相关显著的区域（35°～ 55°N,135°E～135°W）,持续时间达4个月之久;而德州棉铃虫三代卵量与前两年7～9月份北太平洋低纬度海温有大范围相关显著区（1°～17°N,165°E～120°W）。 ③ 用前两年1～11月份北太平洋海温场相关显著区内各格点的月平均海温距平的平均值做因子建立了棉铃虫长期灾变预警模型,预测检验结果表明：郓城棉铃虫三代卵6年（1994～1999）中报准5年,丰县棉铃虫二代卵5年（1995～1999）中报准3年,德州棉铃虫三代卵5年（1995～1999）全部符合。据此可提前20～27个月做棉铃虫的长期灾变预警。     

应用灰色系统理论对二代棉铃虫进行预测

一、引言害虫种群数量的消长状况主要受生态和害虫自身的生物因素所制约。对于各种影响害虫种群数量消长的生态和生物因素来说,可由一系列表观的自然生态因素和害虫本身的生物因素所构成的指标群组合来刻画,每组指标群组合在客观上均反映了适宜害虫种群数量消长的程度。从而构成一组适宜害虫种群数量消长并反映诸生态和生物因素群体效应的生态条件。     

褐稻虱灰色灾变长期预测初探

本文应用灰色系统理论与方法探讨害虫的长期预测。对衙县1974～1986年晚稻主害代褐稻虱发生量构成的离散数列,建立了灰色系统GM(1,1)灾变长期预测模型,用该模型回测的历史拟合率达100％。对1987年晚稻褐稻虱发生量的跨年度长期预测,其结果与实测相吻合。     

辽宁朝阳地区高粱蚜田间消长规律及防治适期

对辽宁省朝阳地区1989~2001年13年的高粱蚜Melanaphissacchari(Zehntner)的系统调查资料分析结果表明,该地区高粱蚜为间歇性发生,发生频率为60%左右。在不施农药的自然情况下,田间发生表现6个阶段,消长规律明显。中等发生年一般峰期日平均百株蚜量5~15万头,严重年25~60万头。各年度田间百株蚜量与蚜虫天敌单位呈极显著相关,天敌紧密跟随蚜虫。防治适期为7月25日~8月5日,个别发生较早的年份可以提前2~3d。     

大元麦上的粘虫灰色灾变预测初探

本文应用灰色系统理论和方法探讨大元麦上的粘虫长期预测。对吴县1974～1986年大元麦粘虫发生量,经灾变映射,建立GM(1,1)灾变长期预测模型,用该模型回测历史拟合率达100％,对1987～1989年预测,均于实况相符。     

Field efficacy of biorational insecticides against Melanaphis sacchari (Zehntner) in sorghum

Abstract

The sugarcane aphid, Melanaphis sacchari (Zehntner), is a major pest in diverse sorghum-growing regions, affecting yields if no effective control measures are implemented. The objective of this study was to evaluate the field efficacy of commercial formulations of biorational insecticides against this pest. All the evaluated biorational insecticides exerted acceptable biological efficacy for at least 7 days after application. The insecticides based on fatty acid potassium salts (Ultralux^® S and Impide^®) maintained aphid density below the established threshold of 50 aphids per leaf up to 14 days after application. The results obtained suggest that biorational insecticides can be included in the integrated management of M. sacchari.     

新侵入害虫蔗扁蛾生活史

蔗扁蛾Opogona sacchari (Bojer)是一种新传入我国的危险性外来害虫。在温度25.71±2.71℃和相对湿度(74.95±5.02)%的条件下,完成一个世代需要66～135天,全年约可发生4代。幼虫期是历史时最长的虫态,需要37～75天,共7龄,是该虫的为害虫期。成虫的交配和产卵需要一定的空间,产卵量为253.05±65.18 (n=20) 。     

Molecular detection of Gluconacetobacter sacchari associated with the pink sugarcane mealybug Saccharicoccus sacchari (Cockerell) and the sugarcane leaf sheath microenvironment by FISH and PCR

Molecular tools for the detection of the newly described acetic acid bacterium Gluconacetobacter sacchari from the pink sugarcane mealybug, Saccharicoccus sacchari Cockerell (Homiptera: Pseudococcidae), and in the sugarcane leaf sheath microenvironment were developed. G. sacchari specific 16S rRNA-targeted oligonucleotide primers were designed and used in PCR amplification of G. sacchari DNA directly from mealybugs, and in a nested PCR to detect low numbers of the bacteria from sugarcane leaf sheath fluid and cane internode scrapings. A sensitivity level of detection of 40-400 cells/reaction was obtained using PCR from exponentially grown bacterial cultures and of 1-10 cells in cane internode scrapings and leaf sheath fluid samples using nested PCR. The specificity of the primer set was demonstrated by the lack of amplification product formation in PCR by closely related acetic acid bacteria, including Gluconacetobacter liquefaciens, and Gluconacetobacter diazotrophicus. A Cy3 labeled probe for G. sacchari was designed and shown to be specific for the species. Investigation of the mealybug microenvironment by whole cell fluorescent in situ hybridization revealed that G. sacchari appears to represent only a minor proportion of the population of the microbiota in the mealybugs tested. This study has shown the usefulness of 16S rRNA-based molecular tools in the identification and detection of G. sacchari from environmental samples and will allow these tools to be used in further ecological research.     

Numbers of pink sugarcane mealy bug, Saccharicoccus sacchari (Cockerell) (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae), differ within seasons and among regions and stages of the sugarcane crop cycle

Abstract  The pink sugarcane mealy bug (PSMB; Saccharicoccus sacchari ) is widespread on sugarcane globally. PSMB infest above-ground storage tissue as it develops, feeding on phloem and producing exudate. It is not known, however, whether the level of infestations is the same in different sugar growing regions, or how population size varies year to year within a region. Field surveys of the number of nodes infested were conducted over five seasons in three mill-regions in northern Australia (Macknade, Kalamia and Marian) on plant and ratoon crops. The pattern of infestation was very similar across seasons (only in 1 year of very low rainfall was the increase in population delayed). In all three regions the proportion of nodes infested was similar but reached the maximum 1 month later in the Marian region compared with the Kalamia and Macknade regions. The Kalamia region was distinguished by the rapid decline in the number of nodes infested down to a very low level by March. In the Macknade region mealy bugs persisted at higher levels than the other two regions. The PSMB infestation started earlier and was much greater in ratoon crops than plant crops throughout the sampling period. The differences were more pronounced in the Macknade and Marian districts. These observations provide a firm basis from which future strategies to control PSMB can be developed.     

白背飞虱种群动态关联分析及预测模型的研究

根据灰色系统关联分析的基本原理,提出了白背飞虱种群动态的加权关联度预测法。衢县早稻后期白背飞虱发生量与历年6月25～30日平均百丛虫量X_1（t）、同期若虫比例X_2（t）、迟熟品种比例X_3（t）、6月下旬水分积分指数X_4（t）和平均气温X_5（t）等因素的关联序为：X_2（t）＞X_1（t）＞X_3（t）＞X_5（t）＞X_4（t）。据此建立的加权关联度预测模型,经12年资料回测和试报验证,结果令人满意。     

长半衰期药物无清洗期时的生物等效性研究*

摘要目的：探讨长半衰期药物（t1/2>24 h）在无清洗期时生物等效性研究中的AUC 和Cmax 的计算,通过无清洗期的实验数据推 算出正常清洗期的数据。方法：利用SPSS软件,建立二室模型口服药物在无清洗期时的半衰期为100 小时的生物等效性模型,通 过优化AUC和Cmax 的计算方法,降低药物残留对第二周期药物浓度的影响,进而增加AUC 和Cmax 的计算的精确性,最后用 较精确的方法推算出正常清洗期的AUC 和Cmax,利用精确的数据进行生物等效性的进一步验证。结果：在无清洗期的状态下, 取样时间在大于0.8 个半衰期时,平均值法计算的AUC 和Cmax 的结果误差小于5 %,变异系数小于25 %,较为精确,生物等效 性研究进一步验证了这一观点。结论：在无清洗期的情况下,生物等效性研究最小的采样时间为0.8 个半衰期。     

Factors affecting the development of Botrytis cinerea (grey mould) on linseed (Linum usitatissimum) buds, flowers and capsules

A key was produced to describe 10 stages of development of linseed buds, flowers and capsules. Botrytis cinerea conidia germinated more rapidly and germ tubes grew longer on linseed stigmas, petals and mature senescing capsules than on green leaves, sepals and immature capsules. The proportion of conidia which germinated increased and the germ tubes continued growing for longer in the presence of linseed pollen and flower petal extracts. In controlled environment and field experiments, the response of buds, flowers and capsules to inoculation with B. cinerea changed with stage of development; few pre‐flowering buds developed symptoms (brown lesions, then grey mould), but high proportions of flowering and post‐flowering buds did so. Few immature green capsules developed symptoms and the proportion of capsules which developed symptoms increased as they matured. The presence of linseed pollen decreased the incubation period from inoculation with spore suspensions to appearance of B. cinerea symptoms on buds. A disease cycle was produced to suggest the changes in susceptibility of linseed to infection by B. cinerea conidia during bud, flower and capsule development.     

用诱蛾量和有效积温模型预测东北越冬代水稻二化螟发生期

在吉林省柳河县绿色稻米生产区,采用1999～2001年间3月1日后有效积温和水稻二化螟诱捕器诱蛾量数据,用线性模型探讨了当地有效积温和诱捕器诱蛾量之间的关系。由建立的线性模型确定越冬代水稻二化螟发蛾始盛期、高峰期和盛末期所需有效积温分别为238.323、339.418和483.398日·度。 采用吉林长春稻区2002～2004年3年间数据比较模型预测值和观察值之间的差异,有效积温的误差值在3.882～26.943日·度之间,相应时间误差为 0～3 天。模型预测准确性较好,可用以及时指导大田防治。