The influence of aridity and fire on holocene prairie communities in the eastern Prairie Peninsula

The role of climate and fire in the development, maintenance, and species composition of prairie in the eastern axis of the tallgrass Prairie Peninsula intrigued early North American ecologists. However, evaluation of the long-standing hypotheses about the region's environmental history has been hampered by the scarcity of paleorecords. We conducted multiproxy analyses on early and middle Holocene sediments from two Illinois, USA, lakes to assess long-term climatic, vegetational, and fire variability in the region. Sediment mineral composition, carbonate delta18O, ostracode assemblages, and diatom assemblages were integrated to infer fluctuations in moisture availability. Pollen and charcoal delta13C were used to reconstruct vegetation composition, and charcoal influx was used to reconstruct fire. Results indicate that fire-sensitive trees (e.g., Ulmus, Ostrya, Fraxinus, and Acer saccharum) declined and prairie taxa expanded with increased aridity from 10,000 yr BP to 8500 yr BP. Between approximately 8500 yr BP and approximately 6200 yr BP, aridity declined, and prairie coexisted with fire-sensitive and fire-tolerant (e.g., Quercus and Carya) trees. After approximately 6200 yr BP, prairie taxa became dominant, although aridity was not more severe than it was around 8500 yr BP. Along with aridity, fire appears to have played an important role in the establishment and maintenance of prairie communities in the eastern Prairie Peninsula, consistent with the speculations of the early ecologists. Comparison of our data with results from elsewhere in the North American midcontinent indicates that spatial heterogeneity is a characteristic feature of climatic and vegetational variations on millennial time scales.     

A very brief history of hydraulic technology during antiquity

Hydraulic technology began during antiquity long before the great works of such investigators such as Leonardo da Vinci (1452–1519), Galileo Galilei (1564–1642), Evangelista Torricelli (1608–1647), Blaise Pascal (1623–1662), Isaac Newton (1642–1727), Daniel Bernoulli (1700–1782), and Leonhard Euler (1707–1783). The history of hydraulic technology even began long before Archimedes (287–212 BC). It is amazing to see what was accomplished in the application of hydraulic technology during antiquity, millenniums before the development of the concepts of conservation of mass, energy, and momentum used in present-day hydraulic design. The first developments of hydraulic technology occurred with the development of irrigation for agriculture, followed by the development of urban centers. A brief history is given of the development of hydraulic technology during antiquity.     

Growth, fire history, and browsing recorded in wood rings of shrubs in a mild temperate climate

Separate effects of abiotic and biotic factors on the structure and dynamics of ecological communities may be recorded in growth rings of woody plants. We used Ceanothus cuneatus rigidus and Arctostaphylos pumila to tease apart the roles of fire, rain, and herbivores on the histories and community structure of four areas in a coastal mediterranean-type climate in central California with mild winters and mild summers. Ring widths of both species were related to rainfall in two of the areas; heavy deer browsing on Ceanothus overwhelmed the climate signal in the others. Ceanothus germination was more closely related to heavy rainfall, especially during ENSO years, than to fire events. In a related greenhouse experiment that evaluated these observations, the same proportions of new Ceanothus seeds germinated after burning and after receiving regular water for several months, but germination of old seeds responded primarily to the fire treatment. In areas where heavy browsing by mammals reduces recruitment and growth of Ceanothus and increases mortality, the continuance of the Ceanothus population must rely heavily on germination from the persistent seed bank during unusually wet years or after occasional fires. Because Arctostaphylos can produce new stems from underground roots, individual plants may survive and produce seeds until another fire.     

Resource allocation,brood production and cannibalism during colony founding in the fire ant,Solenopsis invicta

Summary The colony founding characteristics of newly mated fire ant queens from monogyne colonies were studied in the field and in the laboratory under haplo- and pleometrotic conditions. Initial queen weight (live) was not correlated with subsequent progeny production. During founding, queens lost a mean of 54% of their lean weight, 73% of their fat weight and 67% of their energy content. The percentage of fat decreased from 44% to 33%. Queens lost weight or energy in relation to the amount of progeny they produced (Figs. 1, 2). The efficiency of the conversion of queen to progeny increased as more progeny were produced, leading to a decline in the unit cost of progeny (Fig. 3). The more minims a queen produced, the lower the mean weight of these minims and the faster they developed (Fig. 4). In a field experiment on pleometrotic founding, total brood increased with queen number, peaked between four and seven queens and declined with 10 queens (Fig. 5). Brood developed faster at the sunny, warmer site, but total production and queen survival was higher at the shady site. As queen density increased, production per queen decreased as a negative exponential in which the exponent estimated sensitivity of brood production to queen-crowding and the constant estimated the production by solo queens (Fig. 9). These effects of queen number were confirmed in laboratory experiments. The decrease of production per queen was small and not always detectable during the egg-laying phase, but brood attrition was always strong during the larval period and increased with queen number (Figs. 8, 10). While airborne factors may have contributed to this inhibition, most of the brood reduction was due to other causes, probably cannibalism. For a given number of minims, increased queen number increased the mean weight of these minims, an effect that resulted both from a lower minim production per queen and from cannibalism of dead queens by survivors (Fig. 11). Cannibal queens lost much less weight to produce a given number of minims than unfed control queens, and these minims were heavier (Fig. 12).     

Using a fire propagation model to assess the efficiency of prescribed burning in reducing the fire hazard

We examined how fire hazard was affected by prescribed burning and fuel recovery over the first six years following treatment. Eight common Mediterranean fuel complexes managed by means of prescribed burning in limestone Provence (South-Eastern France) were studied, illustrating forest and woodland, garrigue and grassland situations. The coupled atmosphere-wildfire behaviour model FIRETEC was used to simulate fire behaviour (ROS, intensity) in these complex vegetations. The temporal threshold related to the effectiveness of prescribed burning in reducing the fire hazard was assessed from derivated fuel dynamics after treatment. The study showed that prescribed burning treatment was effective for the first two years in most of the Mediterranean plant communities analysed. Thereafter, all forests and shrublands were highly combustible with a fire line intensity of more than 5000 kW/m except for pine stands with or without oak (medium intensity of 2000 kW m⁻¹ 3 years after treatment). Low fire line intensity (900 kW m⁻¹) was obtained for grassland which was entirely treatment-independent since the resprouter hemicryptophyte, Brachypodium retusum, is highly resilient to fire. Fire behaviour was greatly affected by fuel load accumulation of Quercus ilex in woodland, and by standing necromass of Rosmarinus officinalis in treated garrigue. Pure pine stands with shrub strata similar to garrigue showed a lower fire intensity due to wind speed decrease at ground level under tree canopy, underlining the advantage of maintaining a proportion of canopy cover in strategic fuel-break zones.     

Fighting fire with fire: estimating the efficacy of wildfire mitigation programs using propensity scores

This paper examines the effect wildfire mitigation has on broad-scale wildfire behavior. Each year, hundreds of million of dollars are spent on fire suppression and fuels management applications, yet little is known, quantitatively, of the returns to these programs in terms of their impact on wildfire extent and intensity. This is especially true when considering that wildfire management influences and reacts to several, often times confounding factors, including socioeconomic characteristics, values at risk, heterogeneous landscapes, and climate. Due to the endogenous nature of suppression effort and fuels management intensity and placement with wildfire behavior, traditional regression models may prove inadequate. Instead, I examine the applicability of propensity score matching (PSM) techniques in modeling wildfire. This research makes several significant contributions including: (1) applying techniques developed in labor economics and in epidemiology to evaluate the effects of natural resource policies on landscapes, rather than on individuals; (2) providing a better understanding of the relationship between wildfire mitigation strategies and their influence on broad-scale wildfire patterns; (3) quantifying the returns to suppression and fuels management on wildfire behavior.

Patterns of spatial and species abundance within the larval fish assemblage of the North Pacific central gyre during late summer

The larval fish assemblage in the epipelagic zone of the North Pacific central gyre near Lat. 28°N, Long. 155°W during late summer was sampled with stratified opening/closing bongo nets. This assemblage exhibited recurring patterns of spatial and species distributions. Spatial patterns included species vertical distributions, co-occurrence and pathchiness; species patterns included species composition and abundance relations. Both types of patterns changed with depth, the most dramatic change occurring in relation to the bottom of the summer mixed layer. An examination of the physical and biological environments of the epipelagic zone with relation to the summertime species and spatial patterns and to seasonal changes in larval fish species structure indicates that the thermal structure of the upper water column may exert a major influence on overall ichtyoplanton species and spatial structures within the gyre.     

Bottom-up and climatic forcing on the worldwide population of leatherback turtles

Nesting populations of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the Atlantic and western Indian Oceans are increasing or stable while those in the Pacific are declining. It has been suggested that leatherbacks in the eastern Pacific may be resource limited due to environmental variability derived from the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but this has yet to be tested. Here we explored bottom-up forcing and the responding reproductive output of nesting leatherbacks worldwide. We achieved this through an extensive review of leatherback nesting and migration data and by analyzing the spatial, temporal, and quantitative nature of resources as indicated by net primary production at post-nesting female migration and foraging areas. Leatherbacks in the eastern Pacific were the smallest in body size and had the lowest reproductive output due to less productive and inconsistent resources within their migration and foraging areas. This derived from natural interannual and multidecadal climate variability together with an influence of anthropogenic climate warming that is possibly affecting these natural cycles. The reproductive output of leatherbacks in the Atlantic and western Indian Oceans was nearly twice that of turtles in the eastern Pacific. The inconsistent nature of the Pacific Ocean may also render western Pacific leatherbacks susceptible to a more variable reproductive output; however, it appears that egg harvesting on nesting beaches is their major threat. We suggest that the eastern Pacific leatherback population is more sensitive to anthropogenic mortality due to recruitment rates that are lower and more variable, thus accounting for much of the population differences compared to Atlantic and western Indian turtles.     

Zooplankton biomass and indices of grazing and metabolism during a late winter bloom in subtropical waters

The development of the so-called late winter bloom in subtropical water was studied in an oceanic area north of the Canary Islands from January to May 2000. Zooplankton was sampled at short-term intervals (1–4 days) during the bloom (January–March), and biomass, indices of grazing (gut fluorescence) and metabolism (electron transfer system activity, ETS) were measured in four different size fractions (100–200, 200–500, 500–1000 and >1000 µm). During the bloom, ETS activity and gut fluorescence increased before the development of zooplankton biomass. At the end of February, the presence of an impressive cloud of dust formed in the Sahara desert was related to an increase in chlorophyll and small zooplankton a week later. The increments in biomass were the consequence of consumption by zooplankton as inferred from the indices of grazing and metabolism. Estimated grazing from gut fluorescence and gut evacuation rates during the period of study accounted for 55% of the assessed total ingestion from respiration and normal values of assimilation, showing the importance of the non-pigmented food in the diet of zooplankton in these waters. In contrast, the sharp decreases in zooplankton biomass observed during the bloom appeared during the dark period of the moon, the days in which the diel vertical migrants reach the shallower layers, in agreement with previous works in the area. Thus, the development of the late winter bloom in this region is suggested to be driven by the interplay between resource and consumer controls.Communicated by S.A. Poulet, Roscoff     

The fire frequency analysis branch of the pyrostatistics tree: sampling decisions and censoring in fire interval data

Statistical characterization of past fire regimes is important for both the ecology and management of fire-prone ecosystems. Survival analysis—or fire frequency analysis as it is often called in the fire literature—has increasingly been used over the last few decades to examine fire interval distributions. These distributions can be generated from a variety of sources (e.g., tree rings and stand age patterns), and analysis typically involves fitting the Weibull model. Given the widespread use of fire frequency analysis and the increasing availability of mapped fire history data, our goal has been to review and to examine some of the issues faced in applying these methods in a spatially explicit context. In particular, through a case study on the massive Cedar Fire in 2003 in southern California, we examine sensitivities of parameter estimates to the spatial resolution of sampling, point- and area-based methods for assigning sample values, current age surfaces versus historical intervals in generating distributions, and the inclusion of censored (i.e., incomplete) observations. Weibull parameter estimates were found to be roughly consistent with previous fire frequency analyses for shrublands (i.e., median age at burning of ~30–50 years and relatively low age dependency). Results indicate, however, that the inclusion or omission of censored observations can have a substantial effect on parameter estimates, far more than other decisions about specifics of sampling.

Scenarios of change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates

Mountains are among the natural systems most affected by climate change, and mountain mammals are considered particularly imperiled, given their high degree of specialization to narrow tolerance bands of environmental conditions. Climate change mitigation policies, such as the Paris Agreement, are essential to stem climate change impacts on natural systems. But how significant is the Paris Agreement to the survival of mountain mammals? We investigated how alternative emission scenarios may determine change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates in 2050. We based our predictions of future change in species niches based on how species have responded to past environmental changes, focusing on the probabilities of niche shrink and niche stability. We found that achieving the Paris Agreement's commitments would substantially reduce climate instability for mountain species. Specifically, limiting global warming to below 1.5°C would reduce the probability of niche shrinkage by 4% compared with a high-emission scenario. Globally, carnivores showed greater niche shrinkage than ungulates, whereas ungulates were more likely to shift their niches (i.e., face a level of climate change that allows adaptation). Twenty-three species threatened by climate change according to the IUCN Red List had greater niche contraction than other species we analyzed (3% higher on average). We therefore argue that climate mitigation policies must be coupled with rapid species-specific conservation intervention and sustainable land-use policies to avoid high risk of loss of already vulnerable species.     

长白山区沟谷乌拉苔草Carex meyeriana沼泽湿地气候效应

通过对长白山区沟谷沼泽典型乌拉苔草湿地土壤温度、乌拉苔草群落相对湿度、叶片温度、风速、光量子通量密度以及蒸腾速率的日变化和蒸腾速率的季节变化的研究,初步揭示沟谷乌拉苔草沼泽湿地的气候效应。结果表明长白山沟谷沼泽湿地具有三江平原沼泽同样的冷湿效应。土壤化通时间比三江平原化通时间提前1个多月,蒸腾速率日变化不同季节趋势基本一致,不同层次叶片的蒸腾速率日变化趋势基本一致,最大值在7至8月份蒸腾速率(H2O)达到100~140 mol.m-2.s-1。光量子通量密度与温度成正比,与湿度成反比,大气温度日变化和叶片温度日变化趋势基本相同,相对湿度的日变化趋势和大气温度的变化趋势正好相反,和光量子通量密度的变化趋势相反。沟谷湿地的同样具有小气候效应。     

Task selection by workers of the fire ant Solenopsis invicta

The effects of worker size, age, and crop fullness on the flow of food into the colony were assessed using video recording and playback. Regardless of the level of colony satiation, small workers seldom had full crops and were more involved in larval grooming than in food traffic. Large workers played little role in larval care, but tended to be recruited easily to a food source and to store food in their crops. Medium workers had crops ranging from empty to full because they alternated between ingesting from and donating food to other colony members. Medium workers were the most versatile, engaging competently in food recruitment, larval grooming, and larval feeding. They displayed considerable variation in the frequency at which they fed larvae: some fed a few larvae before switching to other tasks, others fed over a hundred larvae before switching. The persistence, or lack thereof, of a worker's feeding response suggests a flexibility unaccounted for by the fixed-threshold-response hypothesis. Worker coverage of the brood pile was a dynamic equilibrium process unaffected by worker size, age, or crop fullness, or by differences in the nutritional or hygienic states of larvae. In summary, it appeared that worker size and age offered coarse regulation of task selection by workers, whereas crop fullness, flexible response, and task switching fine-tuned task selection. Received: 25 May 1998 / Accepted after revision: 20 August 1998     

The effects of the risk of fire on the optimal rotation of a forest

The effects of the risk of fire or other unpredictable catastrophe on the optimal rotation period of a forest stand are investigated. It is demonstrated that when fires occur in a time-independent Poisson process, and cause total destruction, the policy effect of the fire risk is equivalent to adding a premium to the discount rate that would be operative in a risk-free environment. Other cases are also investigated and in each a modified form of the Faustmann formula is derived and a “marginal” economic interpretation given.     

Life history of the temperate subtidal gastropod Umbonium costatum

The life history and reproductive biology of the trochid sand snail Umbonium costatum (Kiener) were investigated on a subtidal sandy shore in Hakodate Bay, Japan between 1988 and 1991. Female U. costatum mature at 1 yr of age (shell diameter-11 mm), reproduce twice (in June-July and September-October) in successive years, grow to a maximum size (shell diameter=22 mm) at age 8 yr, increase annual fecundity with age from 2000 (age 1 yr) to 37000 (age 8 yr), and show a maximum monthly gonad somatic index of 8% which is constant among ages. In comparison to a previously studied life history of a tropical Umbonium vestiatium, temperate U. costatum shows more sustained growth and a longer life span after maturation. This could be explained by: (1) the optimal size model concerned with resource investment, in gametes (Sebens 1987); and by (2) bet hedging to compensate large variability in larval success at high latitudes. These two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive, but both are based on season-related extremes of environment at high latitudes where the period suitable for reproduction is short.     

Synergistic influences of phase, density, and climatic variation on the dynamics of fluctuating populations

Although ecologists have long recognized that certain mammalian species exhibit high-amplitude, often multiannual, fluctuations in abundance, their causes have remained poorly understood and the subject of intense debate. A key contention has been the relative role of density-dependent and density-independent processes in governing population dynamics. We applied capture-mark-recapture analysis to 25 years of monthly trapping data from a fluctuating prairie vole Microtus ochrogaster population in Illinois, USA, to estimate realized population growth rates and associated vital rates (survival and recruitment) and modeled them as a function of vole density and density-independent climatic variation. We also tested for phase dependence and seasonality in the effects of the above processes. Variation in the realized population growth rate was best explained by phase-specific changes in vole density lagged by one month and mean monthly temperatures with no time lags. The underlying vital rates, survival and recruitment, were influenced by the additive and interactive effects of phase, vole density, and mean monthly temperatures. Our results are consistent with the observation that large-scale population fluctuations are characterized by phase-specific changes in demographic and physiological characteristics. Our findings also support the growing realization that the interaction between climatic variables and density-dependent factors may be a widespread phenomenon, and they suggest that the direction and magnitude of such interactive effects may be phase specific. We conclude that density-dependent and density-independent climatic variables work in tandem during each phase of density fluctuations to drive the dynamics of fluctuating populations.     

Assessing spatial uncertainty of the Portuguese fire risk through direct sequential simulation

Forest fires have a significant economic, social, and environmental impact in Portugal. For that its fire risk was assessed through Bayes Formalism, where the main component of the risk of fire was assessed by the conditional probability of fire I(u,t) given a class of the daily severity rating (DSR) for a specific period of time—P[I(u,t)|R(u,t)]. The evaluation of this a posterior probability, P[I(u,t)|R(u,t)], was based on the update of marginal local probability of fire in each chosen region u (Durão, 2006).DSR values were used to calculate fire's risk, taking into account historical data, I(s,t), in a given region s, and also to define DSR's local thresholds in order to have P [I(u,t)|R(u,t)] ≥ 0.65.In this paper we characterize these posterior probabilities using direct sequential simulation models (DSS models) to obtain the spatial distribution of these probabilities over the entire Portugal, in order to assess the risk of fire and associated spatial uncertainty. Local probability density functions (pdfs) and spatial uncertainty are evaluated by a set of equiprobable simulated images of these posterior probabilities.Results are presented and discussed for the Portuguese fire seasons of the 2-year period, 2003-2004. The conditional probabilities reproduced reasonably well what was officially published for the studied fire seasons. We expect that a better understanding of both spatial and temporal patterns of fire in Portugal together with uncertainty measures constitutes an important tool for managers, helping to improve the effectiveness of fire prevention, detection and fire fighting resources allocation in critical social and environmental areas.     

Simulating the influences of various fire regimes on caribou winter habitat.

Caribou are an integral component of high-latitude ecosystems and represent a major subsistence food source for many northern people. The availability and quality of winter habitat is critical to sustain these caribou populations. Caribou commonly use older spruce woodlands with adequate terrestrial lichen, a preferred winter forage, in the understory. Changes in climate and fire regime pose a significant threat to the long-term sustainability of this important winter habitat. Computer simulations performed with a spatially explicit vegetation succession model (ALFRESCO) indicate that changes in the frequency and extent of fire in interior Alaska may substantially impact the abundance and quality of winter habitat for caribou. We modeled four different fire scenarios and tracked the frequency, extent, and spatial distribution of the simulated fires and associated changes to vegetation composition and distribution. Our results suggest that shorter fire frequencies (i.e., less time between recurring fires) on the winter range of the Nelchina caribou herd in eastern interior Alaska will result in large decreases of available winter habitat, relative to that currently available, in both the short and long term. A 30% shortening of the fire frequency resulted in a 3.5-fold increase in the area burned annually and an associated 41% decrease in the amount of spruce-lichen forest found on the landscape. More importantly, simulations with more frequent fires produced a relatively immature forest age structure, compared to that which currently exists, with few stands older than 100 years. This age structure is at the lower limits of stand age classes preferred by caribou from the Nelchina herd. Projected changes in fire regime due to climate warming and/or additional prescribed burning could substantially alter the winter habitat of caribou in interior Alaska and lead to changes in winter range use and/or population dynamics.