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1.
REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) has been suggested as a climate change mitigation strategy that is based on the philosophy to reward countries for reducing their deforestation and forest degradation by financial benefits via the generation of carbon credits. While the potential of REDD has been widely discussed, minor attention has been drawn to the implication of uncertainties and costs associated with the estimation of carbon stock changes. To raise awareness of these issues, we conducted a simulation study for a set of countries that show high to low deforestation rates, which demonstrates that the potential to generate benefits from REDD depends highly on the magnitude of the total error while assessment costs and the price of carbon credits play a minor role. For countries with low deforestation rates REDD is obviously not an option for generating benefits as they would need to implement monitoring systems that are able to estimate carbon stock changes with a total error well below 1 %. Total errors feasible under operational monitoring systems are only sufficient to gain revenues from REDD-regimes under high deforestation rates.  相似文献   

2.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):105-109
Abstract

One of the important bottlenecks for the introduction of emission trading is how allowances should be distributed among the participants in a trading scheme. Both grandfathering on the basis of historic emissions and auctioning have important drawbacks. In this paper, we propose an allowance distribution rule based on benchmarking of production processes: each company's share in the total allowance is determined by its production level and a reference emission level per product. The scheme shows some important advantages compared to other schemes.  相似文献   

3.
Presented are the results of studying the water temperature changes in the Rybinsk Reservoir during the ice-free period caused by the climate warming. Linear trends are revealed and estimated. The trend is observed for the period of 1976?C2008 towards the increase in the average water surface temperature during all months at the maximum rise rate of 0.89°C/10 years in July. It is demonstrated that the average water temperature in the reservoir in May?COctober has been above the norm since 1995.  相似文献   

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It has been suggested that calculations of historical responsibility for global warming should be used to distribute mitigation requirements in future climate agreements. For a medium-term mitigation scenario, we calculate regional mitigation costs resulting from global allocation schemes based on the Brazilian Proposal that solely incorporate historical responsibility as a burden sharing criterion. We find that they are likely to violate ability-to-pay principles. In spite of less stringent abatement requirements, developing country regions experience cost burdens (as a percentage of GDP) in the same range as those of developed countries. We also assess the policy options available for calculating historical responsibility. The periodic updating of responsibility calculations over time, concerns over the robustness and availability of emissions data, and the question of whether past emissions were knowingly harmful, may lead to policy choices that increase the relative historical responsibility attributed to developing countries. This, in turn, would increase their mitigation cost burden.  相似文献   

6.
Ocean acidification is increasingly recognized as a major global problem. Yet economic assessments of its effects are currently almost absent. Unlike most other marine organisms, mollusks, which have significant commercial value worldwide, have relatively solid scientific evidence of biological impact of acidification and allow us to make such an economic evaluation. By performing a partial-equilibrium analysis, we estimate global and regional economic costs of production loss of mollusks due to ocean acidification. Our results show that the costs for the world as a whole could be over 100 billion USD with an assumption of increasing demand of mollusks with expected income growths combined with a business-as-usual emission trend towards the year 2100. The major determinants of cost levels are the impacts on the Chinese production, which is dominant in the world, and the expected demand increase of mollusks in today’s developing countries, which include China, in accordance with their future income rise. Our results have direct implications for climate policy. Because the ocean acidifies faster than the atmosphere warms, the acidification effects on mollusks would raise the social cost of carbon more strongly than the estimated damage adds to the damage costs of climate change.  相似文献   

7.
Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric ??target?? concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the projected concentration pathways of aerosol in the next decades control the evolution of surface ocean biogeochemistry in the second half of this century more than the specific pathways of atmospheric CO2 concentrations.  相似文献   

8.
We examine the question of whether reducing transport costs in the Amazon has lead to increased land clearing. Data on land clearing, transport costs and other related variables from 1975 to 1995 is analyzed using econometric approaches that exploit the dynamic time series dimension of the data to control for possible omitted variables and endogeneity. Our results suggest that the impact of changes in transport costs on clearing depends greatly on the initial land use. Specifically, we find that in regions where a greater proportion of the land is already cleared, reducing transport costs can lessen the rate of future clearing. On the other hand, reducing transport costs through areas that have seen little human activity is more likely to increase deforestation.  相似文献   

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1引言方正县位于黑龙江省南部,是全国寒地水稻旱育稀植技术的发祥地。总耕地面积120万亩,水稻100万亩。属于山区、半山区,地形复杂,尤其是小气候差异很大。本文针对黑龙江省方正县气候特点,水稻种植技术及产量分布情况,经过对原始资料和本县气候概况的分析整理,建立了水稻种植分布区域图。  相似文献   

11.
The paper presents a brief climatic characteristic and statistical analysis on dynamics of thermal regime in Altai Mountains. The close correlation between temperature series of the Russian and northern part of Mongolian Altai was determined. It was found that the rate of temperature increase for the period under consideration (1940?C2008) ranged from 0.19 to 0.53 °??/10?years, and the most significant increase was registered during the cold seasons. During the maximum global warming (1980?C1999), a 2?C4.5 times increase of annual average temperature was observed as compared to the period of 1940?C1979. The temperature series variations obtained with the Welch's method and wavelet analysis correspond to the periods of North Atlantic Oscillation and solar activity variation.  相似文献   

12.
Effects of tropical deforestation on global and regional atmospheric chemistry   总被引:10,自引:0,他引:10  
A major portion of tropospheric photochemistry occurs in the tropics. Deforestation, colonization, and development of tropical rain forest areas could provoke significant changes in emissions of radiatively and photochemically active trace gases. A brief review of studies on trace-gas emissions in pristine and disturbed tropical habitats is followed by an effort to model regional tropospheric chemistry under undisturbed and polluted conditions. Model results suggest that changing emissions could stimulate photochemistry leading to enhanced ozone production and greater mineral acidity in rainfall in colonized agricultural regions. Model results agree with measurements made during the NASA ABLE missions. Under agricultural/pastoral development scenarios, tropical rain forest regions could export greater levels of N2O, CH4, CO, and photochemical precursors of NO y and O3 to the global atmosphere with implications for climatic warming.  相似文献   

13.
探讨了在无辐射站的情况下,使用效果较好的经验公式(Q q)=(Q q)0(a bs)来间接计算黔西南州太阳总辐射,在拟合经验系数时,考虑黔西南州的气候特点和地理位置等,采用昆明和贵阳的实测辐射值拟合经验系数;经验系数的确定不但与气候带有关,还与季节有关,因而拟合了12个月的经验系数,计算精度大大提高。并计算黔西南州1970—2005年逐年逐月太阳总辐射值,发现其太阳总辐射值在4217.18~4660.54M Jm-2之间,太阳能资源位于贵州省前列,具有较大的开发利用潜力。  相似文献   

14.
Because of the importance of the changes in the hydrologic cycle, accurate assessment of precipitation characteristics is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. This study investigates the changes in extreme precipitation with sub-daily and daily temporal scales. For a fine-scale climate change projection focusing on the Korean peninsula (20 km), we performed the dynamical downscaling of the global climate scenario covering the period 1971?C2100 (130-year) simulated by the Max-Planck-Institute global climate model, ECHAM5, using the latest version of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) regional climate model, RegCM3. While annual mean precipitation exhibits a pronounced interannual and interdecadal variability, with the increasing or decreasing trend repeated during a certain period, extreme precipitation with sub-daily and daily temporal scales estimated from the generalized extreme value distribution shows consistently increasing pattern. The return period of extreme precipitation is significantly reduced despite the decreased annual mean precipitation at the end of 21st century. The decreased relatively weak precipitation is responsible for the decreased total precipitation, so that the decreased total precipitation does not necessarily mean less heavy precipitation. Climate change projection based on the ECHAM5-RegCM3 model chain clearly shows the effect of global warming in increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation, even without significantly increased total precipitation, which implies an increased risk for flood hazards.  相似文献   

15.
The predictability of the Arctic sea ice is investigated at the interannual time scale using decadal experiments performed within the framework of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project with the CNRM-CM5.1 coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model. The predictability of summer Arctic sea ice extent is found to be weak and not to exceed 2 years. In contrast, robust prognostic potential predictability (PPP) up to several years is found for winter sea ice extent and volume. This predictability is regionally contrasted. The marginal seas in the Atlantic sector and the central Arctic show the highest potential predictability, while the marginal seas in the Pacific sector are barely predictable. The PPP is shown to decrease drastically in the more recent period. Regarding sea ice extent, this decrease is explained by a strong reduction of its natural variability in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas due to the quasi-disappearance of the marginal ice zone in the center of the Greenland Sea. In contrast, the decrease of predictability of sea ice volume arises from the combined effect of a reduction of its natural variability and an increase in its chaotic nature. The latter is attributed to a thinning of sea ice cover over the whole Arctic, making it more sensitive to atmospheric fluctuations. In contrast to the PPP assessment, the prediction skill as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient is found to be mostly due to external forcing. Yet, in agreement with the PPP assessment, a weak added value of the initialization is found in the Atlantic sector. Nevertheless, the trend-independent component of this skill is not statistically significant beyond the forecast range of 3 months. These contrasted findings regarding potential predictability and prediction skill arising from the initialization suggest that substantial improvements can be made in order to enhance the prediction skill.  相似文献   

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Summary Starting with a linear theory of the flow around and over mountains a similarity hypothesis of the wind field over complex terrain is formulated and tested by simulations with the numerical mesoscale model KAMM (Karlsruhe Atmospheric Mesoscale Model) and applied to observations of the orographically induced phenomenon Moehlin-Jet, which were performed and analysed by Dütsch (1985). Because this hypothesis combines parameters describing the state of the large scale flow with form parameters of the orography it can be used to regionalize large scale climatological informations to smaller scale. It allows to generalize observations of typical mesoscale phenomena like channeling in broad valleys or orographically induced jet-like currents.With 9 Figures  相似文献   

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All global circulation models (GCMs) suffer from some form of bias, which when used as boundary conditions for regional climate models may impact the simulations, perhaps severely. Here we present a bias correction method that corrects the mean error in the GCM, but retains the six-hourly weather, longer-period climate-variability and climate change from the GCM. We utilize six different bias correction experiments; each correcting different bias components. The impact of the full bias correction and the individual components are examined in relation to tropical cyclones, precipitation and temperature. We show that correcting of all boundary data provides the greatest improvement.  相似文献   

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