Runoff variation and its response to climate change in Huolin River catchment,Northeast China

The Huolin River catchment (HRC) is located in the semi-arid region of Northeast China,which is very sensitive to climate change.The runoff in HRC is closely re...     

Analyzing and forecasting climate change in Harbin City,Northeast China

Based on sounding data from 1975 to 2005 and TM/ETM+ remote sensing images in 1989, 2001 and 2007, the climate changes in Harbin City, Northeast China in recent 30 years were analyzed and forecasted. Results show that in the lower troposphere the meridional wind speed and mean annual wind speed decrease, and in the lower stratosphere the temperature decreases while the meridional wind speed increases significantly. In the study area, the climate is becoming warmer and wetter in the middle lower troposphere. The expansion of urban area has great effects on the surface air temperature and the wind speed, leading to the increase of the surface air temperature, the decrease of the surface wind speed, and the increase of the area of urban high temperature zone. The quantitative equations have been established among the surface air temperature, the carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and the specific humidity (the water vapor content). It is predicted that the future increasing rate of the surface air temperature is 0.85°C/10yr if emission concentration of CO₂ remains unchanged; if emission concentration of CO₂ decreases to 75%, 50% and 25%, respectively, the surface air temperature will increase 0.65°C/10yr, 0.46°C/10yr and 0.27°C/10yr, respectively. The rise of the surface air temperature in the study area is higher than that of the global mean temperature forecasted by IPCC.     

Vulnerability of water resources and its spatial heterogeneity in Haihe River Basin,China

To manage water resources effectively, a multiscale assessment of the vulnerability of water resources on the basis of political boundaries and watersheds is necessary. This study addressed issues on the vulnerability of water resources and provided a multiscale comparison of spatial heterogeneity under a climate change background. Using improved quantitative evaluation methods of vulnerabil- ity, the Theil index and the Shannon-Weaver index, we evaluated the vulnerability of water resources and its spatial heterogeneity in the Haihe River Basin in four scales, namely, second-class water resource regions （Class II WRRs）, third-class water resource regions （Class III WRRs）, Province-Class II WRRs, and Province-Class III WRRs. Results show that vulnerability enhances from the north to south in the different scales, and shows obvious spatial heterogeneity instead of moving toward convergence in multiscale assessment results. Among the Class II WRRs, the Tuhai-Majia River is the most vulnerable area, and the vulnerability of the Luanhe River is lower than that of the north of the Haihe River Basin, which in turn is lower than that of the south of the Haihe River Basin. In the scales of Class III WRRs and Province-Class III WRRs, the vulnerability shows obvious spatial heterogeneity and diversity measured by the Theil index and the Shannon-Weaver index. Multiscale vulnerability assessment results based on political boundaries and the watersheds of the Haihe River Basin innovatively provided in this paper are important and useful to characterize the real spatial pattern of the vulnerability of water resources and improve water resource management.     

WATER RESOURCES TRANSFORMATION AND WATER QUALITY VARIATION IN THE URUMQI RIVER BASIN

ＷＡＴＥＲＲＥＳＯＵＲＣＥＳＴＲＡＮＳＦＯＲＭＡＴＩＯＮＡＮＤＷＡＴＥＲＱＵＡＬＩＴＹＶＡＲＩＡＴＩＯＮＩＮＴＨＥＵＲＵＭＱＩＲＩＶＥＲＢＡＳＩＮＱｕＹａｏｇｕａｎｇ（曲耀光）；ＬｕｏＨｏｎｇｚｈｅｎ（骆鸿珍）（ＬａｎｚｈｏｕＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧ...     

Using MaxEnt Model to Guide Marsh Conservation in the Nenjiang River Basin,Northeast China

Incorporating private and working lands into protected area networks could mitigate the isolation state of protected areas(PAs) and improve the efficiency of conservation.But how to select patches of land for conservation is still a troublesome issue.In this study, the MaxEnt model and irreplaceability index were applied to guide marsh conservation in the Nenjiang River Basin, Northeast China.According to the high accuracy of the MaxEnt model predictions(i.e., the average AUC value = 0.933), the Wuyuer River and Zhalong marshes in the downstream reaches of Wuyuer River are the optimal habitat for the Red-crowned crane and migratory waterfowls.There are 22 marsh patches selected by the patch irreplaceability index for conservation, of which 12 patches had been included in the current network of protected areas.The other 10 patches of marsh(amounting to 1096 km~2) far from human disturbances with high NDVI(up to 0.8) and close distance to water(less than 100 m), which are excluded from the existing network of PAs, should be implemented conservation easement programs to improve the protection efficiency of conservation.Specifically, the marshes at Taha, Tangchi, and Lamadian should be given priority for conservation and restoration to reintroduce migratory waterfowls, as this would lessen the current isolation state of the Zhalong National Nature Reserve.     

Responses of river runoff to climate change based on nonlinear mixed regression model in Chaohe River Basin of Hebei Province,China

Taking the nonlinear nature of runoff system into account,and combining auto-regression method and multi-regression method,a Nonlinear Mixed Regression Model (NMR) was established to analyze the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on annual river runoff process. The model was calibrated and verified by using BP neural network with observed meteorological and runoff data from Daiying Hydrological Station in the Chaohe River of Hebei Province in 1956–2000. Compared with auto-regression model,linear multi-regression model and linear mixed regression model,NMR can improve forecasting precision remarkably. Therefore,the simulation of climate change scenarios was carried out by NMR. The results show that the nonlinear mixed regression model can simulate annual river runoff well.     

Oil and Gas Distribution in Hailar Basin,Northeast China

1IntroductionHailar Basin is located in the eastern part of In-ner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, with the area of 44 210 km2 (Fig.1).Fig.1SketchmapshowingthelocationofHailarBasinThe Hailar Basin is neither different from the foreland basin of west pa…     

Oil and Gas Distribution in Hailar Basin,Northeast China

Through petroleum exploration of 20 years, a new petroleum production area has been constructed in Hailar Basin. Their petroleum geological characteristics and hydrocarbon distribution has been known in detail. The Hailar Basin is a basin group consisted of many scattered sub-basins with similar structural developed history. Each sub-basin has unique hydrocarbon distributing rules, including (1) oil/gas reservoir distribution is controlled by the oil/gas sag, and the oil/gas bearing in big sag is rich; (2) underwater fan and turbidity fan are the most favorable reservoirs; structure zone controlled by main fault is favorable zone of forming composite oil/gas accumulation; (3) lower fault-block in higher rise and higher fault-block in lower rise are favorable to oil/gas accumulation; (4) deep fault and granite body are closely related to oil/gas reservoir, its distributing area is favorable area of oil and mantle source non-hydrocarbon gas formation;(5) higher geothermal area is favorable oil/gas bearing area.     

CENOZOIC VOLCANISM AND GEOTHERMAL RESOURCES IN NORTHEAST CHINA

1 INTRODUCTION Northeast China is located in the eastern marginal part of Eurasian plate. There are about 700 Cenozoic volcanoes and about 50 000km2 volcanic rocks in Northeast China. The Cenozoic volcanism is related to the Pacific plate subducting, back-arc spreading and corresponding marginal continental rifting. About 700 Cenozoic volcanoes in Northeast China are concentrated at some places, so Shuangliao, Keluo, Wudalianchi, Yitong, Shulan, Shangzhi, Longgang, Jingbo Lake, …     

Impact of land use change on groundwater recharge in Guishui River Basin,China

It is important to understand how land use change impacts groundwater recharge,especially for regions that are undergoing rapid urbanization and there is limited surface water.In this study,the hydrological processes and re-charge ability of various land use types in Guishui River Basin,China(in Beijing Municipality) were analyzed.The impact of land use change was investigated based on water balance modeling,WetSpass and GIS.The results indicate that groundwater recharge accounts for only 21.16% of the precipitation,while 72.54% is lost in the form of evapotranspiration.The annual-lumped groundwater recharge rate decreases in the order of cropland,grassland,urban land,and forest.Land use change has resulted in a decrease of 4 × 106 m3 of yearly groundwater recharge in the study area,with a spatially averaged rate of 100.48 mm/yr and 98.41 mm/yr in 1980 and 2005,respectively.This variation has primarily come from an increase of urban area and rural settlements,as well as a decrease of cropland.     

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for water resources carrying capacity in Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China

This paper explores the method of comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity and sets up an evaluation model applying the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the data of nature, society, economics and water resources of the Tarim River Basin in 2002, we evaluated the water resources carrying capacity of the basin by means of the model. The results show that the comprehensive grades are 0.438 and 0.454 for Aksu and Kashi prefectures respectively, where the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree and there is only a very limited water carrying capacity, 0.620 for Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture, where water resources carrying capacity is much higher, and in between for Hotan Prefecture and Bayingolin Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture. As a whole, the comprehensive grade of the Tarim River Basin is 0.508 and the current water resources exploitation and utilization has reached a relative high degree. Thus, we suggest that the integrated management of the water resources in the basin should be strengthened in order to utilize water resources scientifically and sustainably.     

Hydrological impacts of climate change on streamflow of Dongliao River watershed in Jilin Province, China

The impacts of future climate change on streamflow of the Dongliao River Watershed located in Jilin Province,China have been evaluated quantitatively by using a general circulation model(HadCM3)coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)hydrological model.The model was calibrated and validated against the historical monitored data from 2005 to 2009.The streamflow was estimated by downscaling HadCM3 outputs to the daily mean temperature and precipitation series,derived for three 30-year time slices,2020s,2050s and 2080s.Results suggest that daily mean temperature increases with a changing rate of 0.435℃per decade,and precipitation decreases with a changing rate of 0.761 mm per decade.Compared with other seasons,the precipitation in summer shows significant downward trend,while a significant upward trend in autumn.The annual streamflow demonstrates a general downward trend with a decreasing rate of 0.405 m3/s per decade.The streamflow shows significant downward and upward trends in summer and in autumn,respectively.The decreasing rate of streamflow in summer reaches 1.97 m 3 /s per decade,which contributes primarily to the decrease of streamflow.The results of this work would be of great benifit to the design of economic and social development planning in the study area.     

Chronology and nutrients change in recent sediment of Taihu Lake,lower Changjiang River Basin,east China

Two short sediment cores named ZS and THS dated by the 210Pb or 137Cs method were collected from the northwest and southwest of Taihu Lake respectivly,and total organic carbon(TOC) and nutrients including total nitrogen(TN) and total phosphorus(TP) were determined to analyze the chronology and nutrients change in recent sediment.The results show that 137Cs activities are low(less than 15 Bq/kg) in the two cores,attributed to the 137Cs migration.Based on 210Pb constant rate of supply(CRS) model,the sedimentation accumulation rates range from 0.13 g/(cm2·yr) to 0.76 g/(cm2·yr) in the ZS core,and from 0.10 g/(cm2·yr) to 0.56 g/(cm2·yr) in the THS core.A remarkable increase in organic matter and nutrients has occurred in the two dated cores since the mid-1980s.The historical changes of organic matter and nutrients in the two cores are consisitent with the monitoring data for surface sediment after the 1960s.The TP accumulation rates after the early 1980s are 0.97 and 0.92 times higher than those from the 1950s to the 1980s in ZS and THS cores,respectively.Higher TP concentrations in the past two-decade deposits of Taihu Lake are due to both diagenetic factors and human activities.     

Numerieal prediction of storm surge in the Qingdao area under the impact of climate change

A typhoon-induced storm surge simulation system was developed for the Qingdao area, including a typhoon diagnostic model for the generation of wind and pressure fields and a 2D Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model for simulating the associated storm surge with a 200 m resolution along the Qingdao coastline. The system was validated by an extreme surge event Typhoon Mamie (8509) and the parameters of Typhoon Mamie were used to investigate the sensitivity of typhoon paths to Qingdao storm surges with four selected paths: the paths of Typhoons Mamie (8509), Opal, 3921 and 2413, the selection being made according to their relative position to Qingdao. Experiments based on the Typhoon Mamie (8509) storm surge were also conducted to study the possible influences of future climate changes, including the sea level rise and sea surface temperature (SST) rise, on storm surges along the Qingdao coast. Storm surge conditions under both present day and future (the end of the 21st century) climate scenarios associated with the four selected paths were simulated. The results show that with the same intensity, when typhoons follow the paths of 3921 and 2413, they would lead to the most serious disasters in different areas of Qingdao. Sea level and SST affect storm surges in different ways: sea level rise affects storm surge mainly through its influence on the tide amplitude, while the increased SST has direct impact on the intensity of the surges. The possible maximum risk of storm surges in 2100 in the Qingdao area caused by typhoons like Mamie (8509) was also estimated in this study.     

Phenology of different types of vegetation and their response to climate change in the Qilian Mountains,China

The Qilian Mountains(QM) possess a delicate vegetation ecosystem, amplifying the evident response of vegetation phenology to climate change. The relationship between changes in vegetation growth and climate remains complex. To this end, we used MODIS NDVI data to extract the phenological parameters of the vegetation including meadow(MDW), grassland(GSD), and alpine vegetation(ALV) in the QM from 2002 to 2021. Then, we employed path analysis to reveal the direct and indirect impacts of seasonal c...     

Assessment of point and nonpoint sources pollution in Songhua River Basin,Northeast China by using revised water quality model

Individual participation of pollutants in the pollution load should be estimated even if roughly for the appropriate environmental management of a river basin. It is difficult to identify the sources and to quantify the load, especially in modeling nonpoint source. In this study a revised model was established by integrating point and nonpoint sources into one-dimensional Streeter-Phelps (S-P) model on the basis of real-time hydrologic data and surface water quality monitoring data in the Jilin Reach of the Songhua River Basin. Chemical oxygen demand (COD) and ammonia nitrogen (NH_3-N) loads were estimated. Results showed that COD loads of point source and nonpoint source were 134 958 t/yr and 86 209 t/yr, accounting for 61.02% and 38.98% of total loads, respectively. NH_3-N loads of point source and nonpoint source were 16 739 t/yr and 14 272 t/yr, accounting for 53.98% and 46.02%, respectively. Point source pollution was stronger than nonpoint source pollution in the study area at present. The water quality of upstream was better than that of downstream of the rivers and cities. It is indispensable to treat industrial wastewater and municipal sewage out of point sources, to adopt the best management practices to control diffuse pollutants from agricultural land and urban surface runoff in improving water quality of the Songhua River Basin. The revised S-P model can be successfully used to identify pollution source and quantify point source and nonpoint source loads by calibrating and validating.     

Effects of wetland vegetation on soil microbial composition: A case study in Tumen River Basin,Northeast China

Hydrology plays a dominant role in wetland plant distribution and microbial composition, but few studies explicitly attempted to relate the linkage between wetland vegetation and microbial community. The present study consisted of five wetland plant communities along three adjacent flood gradients zones (zone 1 dominated by Carex appendiculat, zone 2 dominated by Eleocharis ovate, and zone 3 dominated by Phragmites australis/Bidens pilosa/Calamagrostis angustifolia, which formed separate, monoculture patches). Gram negative and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) are more abundant in the site with short flooding period (zone 3) than in the site with long flooding period (zone 1), and they are also different in the P. australis, B. spilosa and C. angustifolia of zone 3. Principle Component Analysis (PCA) showed that the flooding period could explain 92.4% of variance in microbial composition. Redundancy Analysis (RDA) showed that available nitrogen (AN), total nitrogen (TN) and soil organic matter (SOM) could explain the 79.5% of variance in microbial composition among E. ovata, P. australis, B. pilosa and C. angustifolia. Results demonstrated that flooding period was the main factor in driving the microbial composition and plant-derived resources could influence soil microbial composition in the seasonally flooded zones.     

Application of land-use change model in guiding regional planning: A case study in Hun-Taizi River Watershed,Northeast China

This paper firstly investigated the land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) in the Hun-Taizi River watershed, Northeast China from 1988 to 2004 based on remotely sensed images and geographic information systems (GIS) technology. Then, using the famous land-use change model of Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S), this paper simulated the land use changes under historical trend (HT), urban planning (UP) and ecological protection (EP) scenarios considering urban planning and ...     

Rebirth after death: forest succession dynamics in response to climate change on Gongga Mountain,Southwest China

Global climate change is having long-term impacts on the geographic distribution of forest species. However, the response of vertical belts of mountain forests to climate change is still little known. The vertical distribution of forest vegetation(vertical vegetation belt) on Gongga Mountain in Southwest China has been monitored for 30 years. The forest alternation of the vertical vegetation belt under different climate conditions was simulated by using a mathematical model GFSM(the Gongga Forest Succession Model). Three possible Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) climate scenarios(increase of air temperature and precipitation by 1.8℃/5%, 2.8℃/10% and 3.4℃/15% for B_1, A_1B and A_2 scenarios, respectively) were chosen to reflect lower, medium and higher changes of global climate. The vertical belts of mountainous vegetation will shift upward by approximately 300 m, 500 m and 600 m in the B_1, A_1B and A_2 scenarios, respectively, according to the simulated results. Thus, the alpine tree-line will move to a higher altitude. The simulation also demonstrated that, in a changing climate, the shift in the vegetation community will be a slow and extended process characterized by two main phases. During the initial phase, trees of the forest community degrade or die, owing to an inability to adapt to a warmer climate. This results in modest environment for the introduction of opportunistic species, consequently, the vegetation with new dominant tree species becomes predominant in the space vacated by the dead trees at the expense of previously dominated original trees as the succession succeed and climate change advance. Hence, the global climate change would dramatically change forest communities and tree species in mountainous regions because that the new forest community can grow only through the death of the original tree. Results indicated that climate change will cause the change of distribution and composition of forest communities on Gongga Mountain, and this change may enhance as the intensity of climate change increases. As a result, the alternation of death and rebirth would finally result in intensive landscape changes, and may strongly affect the eco-environment of mountainous regions.