一种重力异常概率成像的扩展计算

根据重力数据反演结果的数据类型不同,可将重力反演概括为两类:一类是应用线性或者非线性算法,直接计算成像空间的密度分布;第二类是计算得到一种所谓等效密度,用以勾画重力异常场源分布,称为概率成像方法.相对于第一类方法,第二种方法计算更为简单,反演过程也更为稳定.但在一些应用中,需要获取地下介质的实际密度值,进而通过岩性层析等来确定岩性分布,此时,等效密度反演方法表现出了其局限性.本文从概率密度方法出发,应用一种迭代计算,可完成将概率密度值到实际密度值的转化,同时,增加了反演结果的分辨率.本文应用两个理论模型证明了该方法的有效性.     

自回归模型系数推算方法的比较

自回归(AR)模型的特点是利用一组系数将包含在一个观测时间序列中的连续信号进行线性组合.计算AR系数的方法有两种.利用传统方法(方法1)测定AR系数,使得在计算当前值与由过去的观测所作的预估值之间的差值时其预测误差最小.另一种方法(方法2)是在最近应用于频谱分析的Somp,方法中提出来的,这种方法就是利用AR系数从观测的时间序列数据中提取自回归信号,而由提取残差最小来确定它们.方法1给出了过去的有噪声数据和当前的无噪声信号之间线性关系的一个无偏估计.另一方面,利用方法2所得到的AR系数代表了连续无噪声信号之问的线性关系.通过与真实的AR系数值的比较来进行估算的三个数值实验,搞请了这两种方法的差别.首先我们调查了在计算AR系数时高斯白噪声的影响是怎产生误差的.我们发现,利用第一种方法所得到的AR系数对于噪声功率的增加十分敏感.相反,第二种方法对于具有相对较低信噪比(S/N)的数据得出较好的AR系数计算结果.其次.对一个含有非衰减正弦波信号的时间序列,研究了数据长度的影响.当在计算中所用数据点的数目达到一定的平时,用第一种方法所得到的AR系数就不再随数据长度的增加而改善了.另一方面,我们可以得出,数据长度与利用第二种方法使用实际数值所到的计算偏差二者之间恒为负相关.最后,我们使用含有频率相近的两个正弦波信号的一组时间序列对比了两种方法的分辫率,也发现第二种方的结果远优于第一种方法。所有三个实验都证明了在计算AR系数时第二种方法是如何远优于第一种方法的.对于有噪声的时间序列,差异是由于回归模型表达式的混淆造成的.在第一种方法中最小二乘的条件隐含着假定:预测现在信号的过去数据没有被噪声所干扰.其结果是,在这一表达中,当前的信号与当前的噪声无关,但却与包含在过去的数据中的过去的噪声有关.应当提请注意的是,任何墓于传统的自回归计算的谱分析方,在研究数据的精确谱构造时都可能会失效.     

岩石断面的自仿射分形及其分维的计算

岩石破裂断面的实测曲线,应该是自仿射分形,需用分维D和跨接长度t_c两个量来描述其标度性质。本文用尺度法和标准偏差法计算子八条实测的剖面曲线。如果t_c远大于采样步长,则两种方法得出一致的D值;如果t_c远小于采样步长,标准偏差计算出的D值约为1.20左右,而尺度法算出的D值接近于1.0。这是因为在t_c的两侧存在着局域、整体两个分维。只有经过修正后的尺度法才能得出与标准偏差法相接近的D值。对如何估算t_c值和如何修正尺度法提出了简单可行的办法。最后用非整数阶微积分得出一条已知D值的曲线,对上述两种算法进行了验算,结果相当一致。     

等效偶层法位场曲面延拓的原理和计算方法

作者在本文中提出并证明Fredholm第二类积分方程幂级数解新的收敛条件。根据新的收敛条件,详细设计了等效偶层法位场曲面延拓的计算方法。在两种地形的试算中,证明了收敛条件的正确性和计算方法的有效性,对数值计算中的问题也进行了讨论。     

聊古－1井氮氦比观测值的区间概率与地震的关系

本文介绍了计算聊古－１并氮氦比观测值区间概率的两种方法。采用了非线性的褶积滤波结合多元回归的方法排除氮氟比观测值中的干扰因素。并分析了它与１９８１年宁晋Ｍｓ５．８级地震和１９８３年菏泽Ｍｓ５．９级地震之间的关系。在这两震前２个月，其两种区间概率都明显地出现异常，而且都在曲线的极值处发震，震后又恢复到正常值。     

预测地下流体前兆灵敏化学组分的物理化学研究(英文)

本文提出了压溶当量集和温溶当量集的概念,根据地震监测中常用的七种气体在不同温度和压力下的溶解度数据,算出了它们的压溶当量集和温溶当量集’根据这两个当量集和木炭上吸附量对气体按其对地震信息和干扰噪音反应的敏感程度作了分类。为提高信噪比,要求观测组分对信噪的反应有选择性,或要求两个观测组分对信噪的反应有不同的差异性,以便通过计算此二组分浓度的比值自动压低甚至排除干扰。利用上述分类预测了满足上述要求的流体地球化学前兆灵敏组分和灵敏比值，同时提出了对某一组分前兆灵敏温压的概念。通过上述研究，从物理化学观点讨论了从前兆实例中总结出来的地下流体前兆灵敏化学组分的部分条件。     

基于坝体损伤及坝基稳定的重力坝动力分析及安全评价

强震区高混凝土坝的坝体强度和动力稳定是关系大坝抗震安全最为重要的两个因素。为了全面研究地震作用下的混凝土坝的抗震安全,采用混凝土塑性损伤及动力接触模型来分析模拟地震中坝体的损伤及坝基滑裂面的破坏、张开、滑移的全过程。通过构建坝体—基岩三维有限元非线性动力接触模型综合分析震后坝体损伤区域分布、坝基滑移面的接触状态及塑性区的动态分布,避免了采用单一判据的评价的局限性。以某重力坝为例,采用超载法进行大坝动力损伤及动力稳定性进行计算并对大坝的抗震安全进行评价,得到大坝的超载安全系数。工程算例表明：该方法可以全面的评价地震过程中大坝的坝体损伤和稳定性并能够考虑其相互影响,为混凝土坝抗震安全评价提供了新的途径。     

台站间距d的分布对地震动空间相干函数的影响

对地震动空间相干函数进行拟合时,常常遇到台站间距离d偏少的问题。对不同距离台站对的不足对相干函数模型拟合参数的影响进行了对比分析。选取了SMART-1台阵第45号地震的水平分量加速度作为分析数据,计算了d等于200 m,1 000 m和2 000 m等3个台站间距的空间相干系数,并对3个距离的所有计算值进行了拟合,得到了第一组拟合参数;另外又增加计算了d等于400 m,800 m和1 200 m等3个台站间距的空间相干系数,并对所有6个距离的计算值进行了拟合,得到了第二组拟合参数。结果表明,第二组拟合参数的离散性优于第一组拟合参数,且根据第二组拟合参数计算得到的相干系数曲线更合理。因此建议,当采用统计方法获得地震动空间相干函数时,应尽量多地考虑不同距离台站对的强震记录。     

高耸塔架结构节点损伤基于神经网络的两步诊断法

本文针对高耸钢塔架结构的损伤特点，建立了具有节点损伤的有限元模型，提出了一种分层神经网络两步诊断法：第一步，由基于区域残余力理论的第一层神经网络进行结构损伤区域的初诊；第二步，由基于应变模态理论的第二层神经网络进行损伤区域内的具体损伤节点位置和程度的诊断。对一平面塔架结构的数值仿真分析表明：本文提出的损伤诊断方法的结果是令人满意的。     

用谱有限差分法进行地震模拟

提出了以计算一个或两个空间坐标导数的谱方法与对剩余空间坐标和时间作一维有限差分近似相结合为基础的若干有效算法。讨论了几种依赖于弹性参数特性的算法。了提出了一种仅对空间坐标作有限差分近似而使问题简化的算法。对于这种情况，利用矩阵分解法，把获得的对时间的普通差分方程组简化组成N个独立的柯西问题。对这些林西问题可以使用解析方法求解。我们对不同模型给出了计算合成地震图的一些例子。     

紧急救援有关问题的探讨与思考

首先简要回顾了紧急救援的发展过程；简述了与紧急救援有关的一些概念；讨论了城市搜索与救援、地震灾害紧急救援两个概念的由来和区别；回顾了国家地震灾害紧急救援队的设计并提出了地方救援力量建立的原则。最后是关于紧急救援未来发展的思考，并对保障措施提出了建议。     

Contributions of phosphatase and microbial activity to internal phosphorus loading and their relation to lake eutrophication

Phosphatase may accelerate the process of lake eutrophication through improving phosphorus bioavailability. This mechanism was studied in three Chinese eutrophic shallow lakes (Lake Taihu, Lake Longyang and Lake Lianhua). Phosphatase activity was related to the concentration of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and chlorophyll a. Stability of dissolved phosphatase in reverse micelles may be attributed to molecular size, conformation and active residues of the enzyme. At the site with Microcystis bloomed in Lake Taihu, dissolved phosphatase activity was higher and more stable in micelles, SRP concentrations were lower in interstitial water, the contents of different forms of phosphorus and the amounts of aerobic bacteria were lower while respiration efficiency was higher in sediments. Phosphobacteria, both inorganic and organic and other microorganisms were abundant in surface water but rare in sediments. Therefore, internal phosphorus may substantially flux into water column by enzymatic hydrolysis and anaerobic release, together with mobility of bacteria, thereby initiating the bloom. In short, biological mechanism may act in concert with physical and chemical factors to drive the internal phosphorus release and accelerate lake eutrophication.     

Power-laws and applications to earthquake populations

In this paper we study the rooted tree model applying the concepts of probability to obtain results of importance in understanding power-law distributions in pure populations and also in an ensemble of pure populations. The well-known Gutenberg-Richter relation, which is an empirical relation providing the number of earthquakes whose magnitude exceeds a given value, is shown to be an asymptotic form of survivor function of earthquake magnitudes. The implications of this model are briefly discussed in relation to other branches of sciences where power-law distributions are encountered.     

The geoid: From geodesy to geophysics and from geophysics to geodesy

The word geoid appeared for the first time in 1873 in a work by Listing, at a time when an increasing number of measurements of meridian arcs were made, in order to determine the figure of the Earth.From that time, the mathematical methods (least squares, inverse methods ...) and the observation and modelling methods (collecting data, precision ...) have made concurrently great progress. Owing to these advances, the geometric method first, and the dynamic method next were developed by geodesy for the computation of the geoid. In particular, the increasing of data brought by satellites since the 60's led to a detailed knowledge of the geoid.The determination of the geoid is, for geodesy, a goal in itself. The geophysical viewpoint is to study the inner structure and the internal dynamics of the Earth, by the interpretation of the shape of the geoid and its anomalies. The two approaches are complementary to one another and react one on the other: from geodesy to geophysics and from geophysics to geodesy. The geoid has three advantages that can be stated in a few words each, although the third advantage brings in a complex subject. They are: first, the advantage of thinking in terms of small numbers; second, the fact that we know or can know directly the form of the geoid as a physical reality over much of the earth's surface; third, the geophysical implications of a knowledge of the geoid. Walter D. Lambert, 1961     

Why and when it is useful to publish and share inconclusive results and failures: reply to “Reporting negative results to stimulate experimental hydrology”*

ABSTRACT

We thank van Emmerik et al. for their discussion of our opinion paper. We do not fully agree that publication of negative results will be very effective in promoting experimental hydrology. Instead, we think that experimental hydrology is considered to be more risky than modelling studies because of difficulties in publishing inconclusive results and the potential for failure.     

A simple and rapid method to relate land cover and river flow rate to river nutrient concentration

The quantification of diffuse input loads of nutrients to rivers is a challenge due to limited observed data. This study aimed to develop a simple model that can relate in-stream nutrient concentrations due to diffuse sources with land cover categories within a catchment affecting a river reach. A previously developed point-diffuse model was used to distinguish the diffuse nutrient signature within South African Department of Water Affairs historical monitoring flow and water quality data for selected river gauges. The diffuse signature was related to land cover categories within respective catchments using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and influential land cover categories were used to construct land cover models relating land cover categories with in-stream nutrient concentrations. Generally, the land cover categories affecting diffuse signatures of nutrients as indicated by PCA were expected. Using land cover information, the developed land cover models performed well in re-creating the diffuse in-stream nutrient signature as determined by the point-diffuse model.     

Contributions of phosphatase and microbial activity to internal phosphorus loading and their relation to lake eutrophication

Phosphatase may accelerate the process of lake eutrophication through improving phosphorus bioavailability. This mechanism was studied in three Chinese eutrophic shallow lakes (Lake Taihu, Lake Longyang and Lake Lianhua). Phosphatase activity was related to the concentration of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and chlorophyll a. Stability of dissolved phosphatase in reverse micelles may be attributed to molecular size, conformation and active residues of the enzyme. At the site with Microcystis bloomed in Lake Taihu, dissolved phosphatase activity was higher and more stable in micelles, SRP concentrations were lower in interstitial water, the contents of different forms of phosphorus and the amounts of aerobic bacteria were lower while respiration efficiency was higher in sediments. Phosphobacteria, both inorganic and organic and other microorganisms were abundant in surface water but rare in sediments. Therefore, internal phosphorus may substantially flux into water column by enzymatic hydrolysis and anaerobic release, together with mobility of bacteria, thereby initiating the bloom. In short, biological mechanism may act in concert with physical and chemical factors to drive the internal phosphorus release and accelerate lake eutrophication.     

A Genetic Algorithm Variational Approach to Data Assimilation and Application to Volcanic Emissions

Variational data assimilation methods optimize the match between an observed and a predicted field. These methods normally require information on error variances of both the analysis and the observations, which are sometimes difficult to obtain for transport and dispersion problems. Here, the variational problem is set up as a minimization problem that directly minimizes the root mean squared error of the difference between the observations and the prediction. In the context of atmospheric transport and dispersion, the solution of this optimization problem requires a robust technique. A genetic algorithm (GA) is used here for that solution, forming the GA-Variational (GA-Var) technique. The philosophy and formulation of the technique is described here. An advantage of the technique includes that it does not require observation or analysis error covariances nor information about any variables that are not directly assimilated. It can be employed in the context of either a forward assimilation problem or used to retrieve unknown source or meteorological information by solving the inverse problem. The details of the method are reviewed. As an example application, GA-Var is demonstrated for predicting the plume from a volcanic eruption. First the technique is employed to retrieve the unknown emission rate and the steering winds of the volcanic plume. Then that information is assimilated into a forward prediction of its transport and dispersion. Concentration data are derived from satellite data to determine the observed ash concentrations. A case study is made of the March 2009 eruption of Mount Redoubt in Alaska. The GA-Var technique is able to determine a wind speed and direction that matches the observations well and a reasonable emission rate.