损失厌恶的报童-预期理论下的报童问题新解

本文在决策理论——预期理论框架下,重新对报童问题进行了讨论,给出了损失厌恶的报童的最优订货量的计算公式,此外还进行了必要的比较静态分析。     

基于前景理论的报童问题: 考虑回购和缺货惩罚

在前景理论的框架下,通过引入回购和缺货惩罚因素研究了3 种情形下报童最优订货量问题; 通过证明给出了特定参数条件下前景理论报童最优订货量与经典报童最优订货量的明确关系,进一步给出了前景理论最优订货量与回购价格及缺货惩罚价格的函数变化关系．最后,通过数值分析说明了研究结论.     

考虑行为因素的报童问题研究综述

本研究将已有考虑行为因素报童问题研究按实证研究与数学建模研究分析发现,实证研究通过主要研究"趋近平均需求"偏差产生的原因及改善方法;数学建模研究在经典报童模型的基础上考量风险态度、损失厌恶、后悔厌恶等行为因素对的影响,最后指出未来研究的基本思路。     

基于损失厌恶型参与者的易逝品供应链价格补贴契约研究

本文运用前景理论,探讨存在缺货损失情况下由损失厌恶型零售商和损失厌恶型供应商组成的供应链价格补贴契约设计。文章研究供应商为损失厌恶型时,损失厌恶型零售商分别在批发价格契约和价格补贴契约下的订货行为。研究结果表明损失厌恶型零售商在批发价格契约下的最优订货量可能偏离系统最优订货量,损失厌恶型供应商通过价格补贴契约可以协调整个供应链。最后通过算例分析,验证了价格补贴契约在协调供应链中的有效性。     

基于预期理论的报童模型及敏感性分析

传统的报童模型关注的是确定最佳的订货数量从而使报童的期望收益最大。然而现实世界中并非所有的决策者都是完全理性的。本文重点讨论了基于预期理论的报童问题解的存在性和唯一性,并给出了一种数值解法。此外,文章还探讨了预期理论下报童问题对于决策者参数的敏感性。计算发现,报童订货量对参数比较敏感,说明了通过实验的方法来准确的获得决策者效用函数的参数对于解释决策者决策行为所具有的深远意义。     

基于融资需求的损失厌恶零售商订货策略及供应链协调

传统的供应链文献研究都假设了供应链系统中有足够的营运资本可供零售商或供应商融资,然而在管理实践中供应链运营经常面临着资金不足等短缺风险。本文在损失厌恶型零售商存在资金短缺的现实情形下,研究了基于融资需求的损失厌恶型零售商订货策略问题。研究发现,一旦零售商自有资金增加,其损失厌恶系数增大使得资本约束零售商的订货量增加;而一旦零售商的损失厌恶系数确定,银行融资利率增大,资金约束零售商的订货量减小。最后,构造了协调供应链的融资成本共担的协调机制,并通过对比分析刻画了融资利率水平能够影响供应链的运营决策,这也为供应链企业资本风险管理实践提供了很强的实践参考价值。     

损失厌恶下的供应链收益共享契约研究

在决策主体是损失厌恶的假设条件下,研究了离散供应链系统中的最优订购策略,揭示了损失厌恶特性对零售商最优订货量的影响;同时还分析了收益共享契约参数及决策者目标函数之间的关系,发现收益共享契约在损失厌恶下与风险中性情况下的差异;并且结合数值分析方法,对存在差异的原因进行了探讨,研究的结果为决策者在供应链管理过程中的决策提供了参考.     

基于风险厌恶的供应链订货时机分析

基于报童模型,在一个由风险厌恶型制造商和零售商组成的供应链中,分析了三种供应链订货时机:预先订货、延迟订货、柔性订货,并调查了风险厌恶对供应链的影响。不同于已有文献关于风险中性的假设,发现由于风险厌恶,在预先订货方式下零售商有最小化订货量的倾向,在延迟订货方式下制造商有最小化生产量的倾向;进一步的分析结果显示在一定条件下零售商将削减订货量至少一半,制造商利润减少至少一半。为此设计了特许费契约进行协调。认为提升企业信心、消除风险厌恶引起的不利影响,在经济萧条时有着非常重要的作用。     

报童问题的最优竞争比策略及其风险补偿模型

报童问题是库存管理中一个重要的模型。对报童问题在不同的目标函数和约束条件下的扩展模型已有了大量的研究。已有研究假设产品的需求分布已知,然而,在实际中完全刻画需求分布信息常常是很困难的,因此,部分信息下的报童模型研究近年越来越受到重视。在竞争比分析方法下,对报童问题进行了讨论,建立概率预期下风险补偿模型用于解决部分信息的报童问题。在确定性预期和基本概率预期下,分别为具有风险偏好的报童设计了最优订购策略,使报童可以根据自己不同的风险容忍度和未来预期选择订购策略。     

一类基于报童模型的新产品推广研究

在易逝品的新产品推广中,市场需求同时受到价格和非价格因素的影响.本文以需求受价格和广告投人影响的报童问题为研究对象,需求函数采用混合形式,研究了一类随机需求下新产品推广的报童问题.建立了需求受价格和广告投入影响的报童问题的数学模型,求解得出最优定价、广告投入和订货量.通过对模型的求解和算例分析,与需求仅受价格影响的报童问题做了比较研究,结果显示,本文建立的模型能为零售商带来更多的利润.     

资金紧缺型企业规避风险时的决策行为分析

现实中许多企业（尤其中小企业）往往需要通过各种融资手段获取资金以支持其日常运作。融资在为企业带来运作资金的同时,也增加了企业的财务风险。通过在经典报童模型中引入企业的财务状态,综合分析了企业的最优运作决策与财务决策,以及企业决策者对待风险的态度（风险中性、损失规避等）对其决策行为的影响。研究发现,与风险中性型零售商相比,在一定条件下,损失规避型零售商能够在不降低企业期望收益的前提下降低企业的财务风险。     

考虑战略顾客行为时的供应链性能分析与协调

动态定价策略的广泛应用使得越来越多的顾客具有了战略性,战略顾客会根据产品在销售期内的价格路径确定最优购买时机,零售商则根据顾客的购买行为确定订货数量和销售价格.研究了双方静态博弈时的理性预期均衡解和零售商进行数量承诺时的情形.研究表明:理性预期均衡时的最优销售价格、最优存货数量和最优期望利润分别小于标准报童模型的情形;数量承诺时的最优存货数量小于理性预期均衡时的最优存货数量;最优期望利润则大于理性预期均衡时的最优期望利润,并且在一定条件下可能会大于标准报童模型的最优期望利润,战略顾客行为的存在对零售商可能有利.最后分析了在分散式供应链中如何利用收入分享契约和数量折扣契约实现供应链协调.     

A Newsvendor Who Chooses Informational Effort

We study a newsvendor who can acquire the services of a forecaster, or, more generally, an information gatherer (IG) to improve his information about demand. When the IG's effort increases, does the average ex ante order quantity rise or fall? Do average ex post sales rise or fall? Improvements in information technology and in the services offered by forecasters provide motivation for the study of these questions. Much depends on our model of the IG and his efforts. We study an IG who sends a signal to a classic single‐period newsvendor. The signal defines the newsvendor's posterior probability distribution on the possible demands and the newsvendor uses that posterior to calculate the optimal order. Each of the possible posteriors is a scale/location transform of the same base distribution. When the IG works harder, the average scale parameter drops. Higher IG effort is always useful to the newsvendor. We show that there is a critical value of order cost. For costs on one side of this value more IG effort leads to a higher average ex ante order and for costs on the other side to a lower average order. But for all costs, more IG effort leads to higher average ex post sales. We obtain analogous results for a “regret‐averse” newsvendor who suffers a penalty that is a nonlinear function of the discrepancy between quantity ordered and true demand.     

考虑零售商失望规避与欣喜寻求的定价与订货联合决策

现实中,零售商在定价与订货联合决策中往往会关注实际收益与预期收益的差异,并表现出失望规避与欣喜寻求行为,而针对考虑零售商失望规避与欣喜寻求行为的定价与订货联合决策问题的研究成果还不多见。在本文中,首先依据失望理论刻画了基于零售商预期收益的失望-欣喜效用函数,并在此基础上构建了考虑零售商失望-欣喜效用的定价与订货联合决策效用函数;然后,通过分析确定了使期望效用最大化的最优零售价格与最优订货量;进一步地,通过数值实验分析了零售商不同的预期收益、失望规避程度与欣喜寻求程度对其最优零售价格与最优订货量的影响。研究结果表明,零售商不同的预期收益以及失望规避程度与欣喜寻求程度均能够影响定价与订货联合决策结果,且针对具有不同预期收益的零售商,其失望规避程度与欣喜寻求程度对其最优决策结果的影响不同。     

Decision making in the newsvendor problem: A cross-national laboratory study

In this paper, we conduct a laboratory experiment using the classic newsvendor problem to examine cross-national differences in inventory ordering patterns between Chinese and American decision makers based on a theoretical examination of the role of the Doctrine of the Mean in Chinese decision making. Drawing on the theory of context-dependent preferences (specifically extremeness aversion), we also revisit the flat-maximum hypothesis of Bolton and Katok [12], i.e., “thinning the set of order options leads to newsvendor decisions that achieve a higher proportion of maximum expected profit.” The results show that the “pull-to-center” effect is more prominent for Chinese than Americans, i.e., average order quantities of Chinese subjects are closer to the anchor of mean demand than those of American subjects. Furthermore, we find that thinning the set of order options such that the optimal order quantity is a middle option, not an extreme option in the choice set, leads to better performance in newsvendor decisions, which complements the flat-maximum hypothesis.     

基于累积前景理论的报酬契约模型设计与分析

传统报酬契约的机制设计以委托代理模型为依据,并基于期望效用理论加以分析、讨论。实证研究认为,委托代理模型中决策者的行为偏好更符合累积前景理论假设,即委托人与代理人均会依据不同预期收益呈现相应的风险偏好,并对收益的概率估计赋以非线性的决策权重。本文引入累积前景理论重构报酬契约模型,通过构建价值函数、决策权重函数,设置参照点,研究委托人、代理人均无明显风险偏好表征下的决策行为。模型结果表明,在参照点为0的情况下,代理人的最优努力水平与自身风险态度系数或决策权重系数无关;在信息透明情形下,委托人制定的最优利润分享系数,完全由自身的风险态度系数与决策权重系数决定。据此,本文提出系列激励机制优化对策。     

The Newsvendor Problem and Price‐Only Contract When Bankruptcy Costs Exist

We study a supply chain of a supplier selling via a wholesale price contract to a financially constrained retailer who faces stochastic demand. The retailer might need to borrow money from a bank to execute his order. The bank offers a fairly priced loan for relevant risks. Failure of loan repayment leads to a costly bankruptcy (fixed administrative costs, costs proportional to sales, and a depressed collateral value). We identify the retailer's optimal order quantity as a function of the wholesale price and his total wealth (working capital and collateral). The analysis of the supplier's optimal wholesale price problem as a Stackelberg game, with the supplier the leader and the retailer the follower, leads to unique equilibrium solutions in wholesale price and order quantity, with the equilibrium order quantity smaller than the traditional newsvendor one. Furthermore, in the presence of the retailer's bankruptcy risks, increases in the retailer's wealth lead to increased supplier's wholesale prices, but without the retailer's bankruptcy risks the supplier's wholesale prices stay the same or decrease in retailer's wealth.     

Optimal ordering and pricing decisions for a target oriented newsvendor

This paper is the first to study pricing and target oriented decision making together in the newsvendor model. Specifically, this paper studies a newsvendor who decides on order quantity and selling price to maximize the probability of achieving both profit and revenue targets simultaneously. First, it is shown that the probability of a newsvendor achieving both targets depends critically on the relative magnitudes of the profit margin and the ratio between the profit target and the revenue target. Second, the closed-form expressions of the optimal order quantity, the optimal selling price, and the maximal profit and revenue probability are obtained. It is shown that if the product has greater price elasticity, the best strategy is always to price lower and order more.     

The loss-averse newsvendor problem

Newsvendor models are widely used in the literature, and usually based upon the assumption of risk neutrality. This paper uses loss aversion to model manager's decision-making behavior in the single-period newsvendor problem. We find that if shortage cost is not negligible, then a loss-averse newsvendor may order more than a risk-neutral newsvendor. We also find that the loss-averse newsvendor's optimal order quantity may increase in wholesale price and decrease in retail price, which can never occur in the risk-neutral newsvendor model.     

The newsvendor problem with advertising: an overview with extensions

The effect of advertising on sales has been the subject of recent studies as an important aspect in many demand-based problems. Herein, we deal with the newsvendor problem, due to its simple structure, as a suitable tool for illustrating how facets of marketing may affect decision-making concerning operational problems. In the setting presented, the newsvendor is faced with advertising-sensitive stochastic demand, where a demand-related random element comprises an advertising decision of the multiplicative or additive form. We assume that a suitable advertising strategy results in increased sales. Two advertising response functions are considered, these being concave downward and S-shaped. We review and extend the existing results relating to the newsvendor problem with marketing effects, which mostly pertain to the concave function. These are generalized by defining the S-shaped function, and some original insights into the effect of advertising are given. We establish that the optimal advertising expenditure for the multiplicative case is always less than or equal to the optimal amount in the equivalent deterministic model while it is always equal in the additive case. We finally illustrate the results that are obtained by providing numerical examples involving various advertising response functions, as well as management-related interpretations.