基于时间序列谐波分析的鄱阳湖湿地植被分布与水位变化响应

采用高时间分辨率遥感信息的谐波分析方法,提取反映鄱阳湖湿地植被指数随水位变化的谐波分量,分别以自然年和水文年的不同周期作为湿地植被指数谐波分析单元,利用时间序列信号的最大振幅谐波分量的变化周期表征湿地植被指数在不同分析单元的变化模式,结合常年水位观测数据和湿地植被群落在不同物候期的时间与空间特征,探讨鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区和南矶湿地国家级自然保护区的植被分布面积与水位变化关系.结果表明:(1)鄱阳湖湿地植被分布受水文状况影响的特征明显,相对于南矶自然保护区,鄱阳湖自然保护区湿地植被分布面积对观测水位的变化更为敏感.(2)两个自然保护区范围内的湿地植被分布面积与对应水文年9和10月的观测水位呈现较强的负相关关系,且在0.05水平上显著.一年两季生长的湿地植被分布面积受退水时间影响大于次年的涨水时间,与枯水期的观测水位无明显的相关关系.(3)两个自然保护区在不同高程区间的湿地植被分布面积与观测水位的相关关系和显著性呈现各自特征.在鄱阳湖保护区,12~13 m高程区间的湿地植被分布面积与9月观测水位的相关性最强,且相关关系在0.05水平上显著;13~14 m高程区间的湿地植被分布面积与10月观测水位相关关系更强.在南矶自然保护区,湿地植被分布面积在不同高程区间均与9和10月观测水位显著相关.采用谐波分析方法分析湖泊湿地的植被分布面积与水位关系有助于基于多时间序列遥感信息的湿地水文节律研究.     

鄱阳湖湿地典型植被群落地下水—土壤—植被—大气系统界面水分通量及水源组成

地下水-土壤-植被-大气系统(GSPAC)界面水分传输是湿地生态水文过程研究的关键.本文选取鄱阳湖湿地高位滩地的2种典型植被群落:茵陈蒿(Artemisia capillaris)和芦苇(Phragmites australis)群落为研究对象,运用HYDRUS-1D垂向一维数值模拟,量化了湿地GSPAC系统界面水分通量,阐明了典型丰水年(2012年)和枯水年(2013年)鄱阳湖湿地植被群落的蒸腾用水规律和水源组成.结果表明:(1)茵陈蒿和芦苇群落土壤-大气界面的年降水入渗量为1570~1600 mm,主要集中在雨季4-6月,占年总量的60%;植物-大气界面的年蒸腾总量分别为346~470 mm和926~1057 mm,其中7-8月植被生长旺季最大,占年总量的40%~46%;地下水-根区土壤界面的向上补给水量受不同水文年水位变化的影响显著,地下水年补给量分别为15~513 mm和277~616 mm,主要发生在蒸散发作用强烈和地下水埋深较浅的时段.(2)植被蒸腾用水分为生长初期(4-6月)和生长旺季(7-10月)2个阶段,丰水年植被的整个生长期蒸腾用水充足,枯水年植被生长旺季的蒸腾用水受到严重水分胁迫,实际蒸腾量仅为潜在蒸腾量的一半左右.(3)不同水文年湿地植被生长旺季的水源贡献不同:丰水年茵陈蒿群落以地下水补给为主,芦苇群落以湖水和地下水补给为主;枯水年茵陈蒿群落以降水和前期土壤水储量为主,芦苇群落以地下水补给为主.本研究结果有助于揭示湿地植被的水分利用策略,为阐明湖泊水情变化与植被演替的作用机理提供参考依据.     

鄱阳湖国家级自然保护区湿地植被的干旱响应及影响因素

近年来鄱阳湖干旱事件频发,干旱导致的气象水文要素变化直接影响植被生长状况,尤其是对于地上植被生物量的影响极为显著.研究鄱阳湖干旱事件对于湿地植被的影响,对于保护鸟类栖息地,认识湿地生态功能和结构的变化具有重要的现实意义.利用长期卫星遥感数据,结合植被生物量野外调查,以2003和2006年极端干旱年份为出发点,从湿地植被面积、生物量密度和总生物量的角度分析了鄱阳湖湿地植被生物量对于极端干旱的响应.研究表明:湿地植被面积、生物量密度以及总生物量均呈现双峰分布特征,在4和11月分别达到上、下半年的峰值.2003年植被生物量与多年均值一致,2006年下半年植被面积、生物量密度以及总生物量均明显超出多年均值.影响湿地植被面积的主要因素为鄱阳湖水位变化;而影响植被生物量密度的主要因素为气温和水位,退水时间提前对于生物量密度影响最大;总生物量同时受到植被面积与植被生物量密度的综合影响,其中植被面积的影响更大,植被面积对于总生物量的影响在2006年表现得比2003年更加显著.总之,2006年湿地植被对水文干旱的响应要比气象干旱强烈得多.     

湖泊生态水位计算新方法与应用

水位是湖泊水文情势的主要特征指标,对湖泊的水量、水质和生物的栖息地等有直接或间接的影响,被认为是湖泊生态系统健康的关键影响因素.如何确定合理的湖泊水位以保证生态系统健康成为湖泊科学研究的重要科学问题.根据湖泊天然水位情势,从天然水文变化中识别多项反映完整水位过程的指标,构建了湖泊生态水位的计算方法.从湖泊天然水位情势中提取出高、低水位的历时、发生时间和变化率等水位指数来表征其生态水位.该方法弥补了传统湖泊生态水位计算方法仅给出最小生态水位的不足,体现了湖泊生态系统健康对水位过程的要求.基于提出的生态水位计算方法和鄱阳湖都昌水位站1952-2000年共49年的日均监测数据,计算了鄱阳湖的生态水位目标值区间,以期为鄱阳湖水利工程生态调度提供决策依据.     

鄱阳湖湿地苔草（Carex）景观变化及其水文响应

淡水湿地水文过程控制着湿地植被景观的形成与演变.基于Landsat TM/ETM+遥感影像数据,利用决策树分类法提取鄱阳湖湿地1992、1999、2006、2012年4期景观信息,通过景观格局指数、转移矩阵和质心迁移法对苔草景观的空间变化及其与水文过程关系进行分析.结果表明:研究期间,鄱阳湖湿地秋、冬季苔草景观分布面积受到水位和退水过程的影响,低水位年的中滩位缓慢退水与低滩位快速出露更有利于苔草景观的扩张;苔草景观的空间格局与水位关系密切,在低水位年份,低位洲滩提前出露,苔草景观分布高程较低,部分低位光滩被苔草所侵占,原苔草分布的部分洲滩转变为芦荻景观,景观的破碎化程度较重,在高水位年份,低位洲滩长期被水体淹没,苔草景观分布高程相对较高,部分芦荻分布区被苔草所侵占,而原苔草景观的部分区域转变为水体和光滩,由于该期间苔草主要集中分布在湖周和入湖河口地带的高位洲滩上,其景观破碎化程度较轻;水位年际间的升降变化会影响苔草景观质心位置,年均水位上升引起景观质心发生向湖岸方向推进,而年均水位下降则会导致苔草景观质心向湖心方向转移.     

基于长短时记忆神经网络的鄱阳湖水位预测

湖泊水位是维持其生态系统结构、功能和完整性的基础.鄱阳湖受流域"五河"和长江来水双重影响,水位变化复杂.为了准确预测鄱阳湖水位变化,采用长短时记忆神经网络方法(LSTM)构建了鄱阳湖水位预测模型.该模型以赣江、抚河、信江、饶河和修水"五河"入湖流量和长江干流流量作为输入条件,预测鄱阳湖湖区不同代表站(湖口、星子、都昌、吴城和康山)的水位过程.研究以1956—1980年的水文时间序列数据作为训练集,1981—2000年作为验证集,探讨了LSTM模型输入时间窗、隐藏神经元数目、初始学习率等模型参数对预测精度的影响,并确定了鄱阳湖水位预测模型的最优参数.结果表明,采用LSTM神经网络方法可基于流域"五河"和长江来水量历时数据合理预测鄱阳湖不同湖区的水位过程,五站水位预测的均方根误差为0.41～0.50 m,纳什效率系数和决定系数达0.96～0.98.为考察模型训练数据集对鄱阳湖水位预测结果的影响,进一步选取了随机5年(1956—1960年)的资料和5个典型水文年(1954年、1973年、1974年、1977年和1978年)的日均流量资料来训练模型.结果显示随机5年资料作为训练数据的预测精度要差于典型年水文资料训练得到的模型,尤其是洪、枯水位的预测;由于典型水文年数据量仍远低于20年的资料,故其总体预测精度要略低于采用20年资料训练的模型.建议应用这类基于数据驱动的模型时,应该尽可能多选取具有代表性的资料来训练.     

基于遥感的鄱阳湖湖区蒸散特征及环境要素影响

蒸散是湖泊湿地生态系统水循环的重要组成部分,研究湖区地表蒸散量的时空变化对了解鄱阳湖湖区水量平衡关系具有重要意义.本研究基于MODIS数据,应用地面温度-植被指数三角关系法反演2000-2009年鄱阳湖湖区的实际蒸散量,分析湖区蒸散的时空分布特征及主要气象因子对流域蒸散的影响.结果表明:2000-2009年鄱阳湖湖区年蒸散量在685~921 mm之间,平均年蒸散量为797 mm,最大蒸散量出现在2004年.2000-2009年多年平均水体蒸发量为1107 mm,高于湖区植被蒸散量(774 mm).湖区汇水区域中蒸散量占降水的平均比例为55%,是水量平衡的主要支出项,径流系数约为0.45.湖区蒸散主要受辐射和气温的影响,月蒸散量与气温呈显著的指数相关,2007年蒸散量对温度的关系最为敏感.降水量距平与蒸散量距平的关系除2007年呈显著负相关外,其他年份相关性不显著.鄱阳湖湿地蒸散与湖泊水域面积总体呈正相关,但在水文干旱严重的2006年,当水域面积<30%时,蒸散速率随水域面积增加而减小.     

水文周期对纳帕海高原湿地草甸土壤碳素的影响

综合降水量、蒸发能力、周边高山冰雪融水以及地下水资源的季节性变化特点分析了纳帕海湿地草甸水文周期特征,采用野外采样和室内分析相结合的方法,研究了水文周期对草甸土壤有机质变化的影响.结果表明,纳帕海湿地水文特征中草甸水位的周期性变化显著,并且水文周期对纳帕海湿地的草甸土壤有机质影响显著,其有机质变化表现为在0-20 cm土层呈不规则的"W"型多峰曲线变化,而在20-40 cm土层有机质的变化则为不规则的"N"型.水文周期变化对草甸土壤有机质的驱动过程可采用高斯多峰模型模拟,且拟合效果较为理想.     

鄱阳湖碟形湖泊植物分解和水位变化对水体碳、氮浓度的叠加效应

以鄱阳湖典型碟形湖泊——白沙湖为监测对象,开展水体有机碳(TOC)、总氮(TN)、铵态氮(NH_4~+-N)和硝态氮(NO_3~--N)浓度的年内动态变化的定位观测,结合在白沙湖开展的灰化薹草(Carex cinerascens)分解模拟实验和稳定同位素示踪技术,对薹草分解过程和水体营养盐浓度变化进行时间匹配,分析水体中颗粒态有机物(POM)的来源,并探讨水位变化和薹草分解对水体营养盐浓度的交互作用.结果表明,水体TOC、TN和NH_4~+-N浓度在枯水季1—4月明显高于其他月份;薹草在0~60 d具有最高的分解速率,鄱阳湖碟形湖泊洲滩湿地薹草分解起始时间为当年12月前后;水体POM与薹草活体和分解残体的δ~(13)C差异不显著,而与苦草和藻类具有显著性差异,说明薹草分解残体是水体中POM的主要来源;薹草分解过程明显影响湖泊水体TN、NH_4~+-N和TOC浓度变化;水位变化对湖泊水体NO_3~--N浓度变化效应最明显.     

鄱阳湖湿地土壤微生物活性对年际水文变化的响应

湿地自然水文节律的改变影响着湿地生态系统的稳定与安全.为探究湿地水文变化对土壤微生物活性的影响,以鄱阳湖洲滩湿地3种典型植被狗牙根（Cynodon dactylon）、南荻（Triarrhena lutarioriparia）和苔草（Carex cinerascens）下表层土壤（0~20 cm）为研究对象,对湿地土壤微生物呼吸、微生物生物量和水解酶等土壤活性特征进行连续3年的实验监测,分析年际水位变化对不同植被湿地土壤微生物活性的影响.结果表明：丰水年显著提高土壤中养分的可利用性（有机质、总磷、速效磷）,提高土壤微生物生物量、微生物熵、水解酶活性,表明丰水年有利于湿地生态系统的物质循环转化.水文条件也能通过影响湿地植被生长改变土壤养分状况,进而对植被下土壤微生物活性产生显著影响.诸多土壤理化因子中,可溶性有机碳是驱动微生物活性变化最关键的因子.进一步分析表明,由植被类型所代表的长期水文累积效应对湿地土壤理化及微生物活性的调节作用大于单纯的年际水文变化.     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Solute concentrations in the lower niger river and the source rock contribution

Water quality analyses for the Niger River for the 1980/81 hydrological year are presented. The samples were collected from the main river at Lokoja, and from two main tributaries, the Kaduna and the Benue Rivers. Different water types were distinguished by the concentrations of major ions. The type Ca > Na > Mg > K - HCO₃ > SO₄ > Cl was represented at all stations during at least part of the year. Chloride was found to dominate the sulphate ion in the Kaduna and Niger, while the Benue maintained a higher concentration of sulphate relative to chloride all year round. Distinct patterns of seasonal variation in the ion concentrations were observed, particularly for the samples collected at Lokoja. Low ion concentrations were prominent during periods of high discharge, while low flow periods coincided with high dissolved ion concentrations. The contribution of rainwater to the total dissolved solids in the river waters was assessed indirectly using rainwater chemistry data from the Gulf of Guinea. The estimated rainwater contribution to the Lower Niger amounts to 5.15 mg 1^?1. Geochemical weathering calculations involving reactions of the four major minerals of granitic rocks - anorthite, biotite, albite, and K-feldspar - with carbon dioxide and water, can account for the average water composition of the Lower Niger. The proportion of the ionic components was also related to the occurrence of the respective element in the minerals.     

Scenario predictions for potential near-field and far-field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong

Historical earthquakes noted in the written records of the South China region, including Hong Kong, are not well delineated along identified prominent fault sources. Despite the lack of any definitive, localised trend in the spatial distribution of seismic activity in the region, there does appear to be some major disparity in the seismic activity rates (especially for large magnitude earthquakes) between the near-field and the far-field regions of Hong Kong. Despite this observation, previous studies of the regional seismic activity and seismic ground motion hazard (the latter using a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, PSHA) have considered very broad source zone regions, in which uniform levels of seismic activity have been assumed. The present paper further scrutinises this broad source zone (BSZ) approach by adopting a novel expanding circular disc (ECD) method to determine the rates of earthquake recurrence. Such a method is intended to counter-check previously developed models by determining earthquake scenario events in terms of magnitude–distance (M–R) pairs or combinations, having defined values of average return period. Unlike the BSZ approach, the ECD method specifically accounts for the supposed variations in the seismic activity rates between events in the near-field and the far-field of Hong Kong.The form of the developed method is particularly suited to the determination of design-level earthquake ground motions for bedrock sites, since it assumes a directionally-independent attenuation model as described in the companion paper. It is found that, whilst the BSZ approach may indicate the overall average levels of hazard that are representative of the South China region as a whole, it does not capture the large disparity in seismic activity rates between near-field and far-field events. This important feature is expected to have a significant impact upon engineering assessments of the seismic safety of structures in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the South China region. For example, it is found that for events with M≥6, the seismic activity rate (normalised by time and area) in the very far-field is around 3.5 times larger than in the near-field and medium-field of Hong Kong. The resulting design M-R combinations, covering a range of return periods from 70 to 2500 years, are limited, for very long return periods and for distant events, by the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude. Intensive research to determine this seismic hazard parameter is recommended, in order to refine further the results of the ECD analysis, which presently conservatively assumes the MCE to range between M=6 in the near-field of Hong Kong to M=8 in the very far-field, at distances greater than 280 km from Hong Kong.     

Depositional ages and characteristics of Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in southeastern Mongolia

Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales are widely distributed in southeastern Mongolia. Due to the high organic carbon content of oil shale, many geochemical studies and petroleum exploration have been conducted. Although most of the oil shales are considered to be Early Cretaceous in age, a recent study reveals that some were deposited in the Middle Jurassic. The present study aims at establishing depositional ages and characteristics of the Jurassic and Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in Mongolia. The Lower Cretaceous Shinekhudag Formation is about 250 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale and dolomite. The Middle Jurassic Eedemt Formation is about 150 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale, dolomitic marl, and siltstone. The alternations of shale and dolomite in both formations were formed by lake level changes, reflecting precipitation changes. Shales were deposited in the center of a deep lake during highstand, while dolomites were formed by primary precipitation during lowstand. Based on the radiometric age dating, the Shinekhudag Formation was deposited between 123.8 ±2.0 Ma and 118.5 ±0.9 Ma of the early Aptian. The Eedemt Formation was deposited at around 165–158 Ma of Callovian–Oxfordian. The calculated sedimentation rate of the Shinekhudag Formation is between 4.7 ±2.6 cm/ky and 10.0 ±7.6 cm/ky. Shales in the Shinekhudag Formation show micrometer‐scale lamination, consisting of algal organic matter and detrital clay mineral couplets. Given the average thickness of micro‐laminae and calculated sedimentation rate, the micro‐lamination is most likely of varve origin. Both Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales were deposited in intracontinental basins in the paleo‐Asian continent. Tectonic processes and basin evolution basically controlled the deposition of these oil shales. In addition, enhanced precipitation under humid climate during the early Aptian and the Callovian–Oxfordian was another key factor inducing the widespread oil shale deposition in Mongolia.     

THEORETICAL APPROACH TO THE SOLUTION OF THE INFILTRATION PROBLEM

ABSTRACT

The one-dimensional transient downward entry of water in unsaturated soils is investigated theoretically. The mathematical equation describing the infiltration process is derived by combining Darcy's dynamic equation of motion with the continuity and thermodynamic state equations adjusted for the unsaturated flow conditions. The resulting equation together with the corresponding initial and boundary conditions constitues a mathematical initial boundary value problem requiring the solution of a nonlinear partial differential equation of the parabolic type. The volumetric water content is taken as the dependent variable and the time and the position along the vertical direction are taken as the independent variables. The governing equation is of such nature that a solution exists for t > 0 and is uniquely determined if two relationships are defined, together with the specified state of the system, at the initial time t = 0 and at the two boundaries. The two required relations are those of pressure versus permeability and pressure versus volumetric water content.

Since the partial differential equation has strong non-linear terms, a discrete solution is obtained by approximating the derivatives with finite-differences at discrete mesh points in the solution domain and integrated for the corresponding initial and boundary conditions. The use of an implicit difference scheme is employed in order to generate a system of simultaneous non-linear equations that has to be solved for each time increment. For n mesh points the two boundary conditions provide two equations and the repetition of the recurrence formula provides n—2 equations, the total being n equations for each time increment. The solution of the system is obtained by matrix inversion and particularly with a back-substitution technique. The FORTRAN statements used for obtaining the solution with an electronic digital computer (IBM 704) are presented together with the input data.

Analysis of the errors involved in the numerical solution is made and the stability and convergence of the solution of the approximate difference equation to that of the differential equation is investigated. The method applied is that of making a Fourier series expansion of a whole line of errors and then following the progress of the general term of the series expansion and also the behavior of each constituent harmonic. The errors (forming a continuous function of points in an abstract Banach space) are represented by vectors with the Fourier coefficients constituting a second Banach space. The amplification factor of the difference equation is shown to be always less than unity which guarantees the stability of the employed implicit recurrence scheme.

Experiments conducted on a vertical column packed uniformly with very fine sand, show a satisfactory agreement between the theoretically and experimentally obtained values. Many experimental results are shown in an attempt to explain the infiltration phenomenon with emphasis on the shape and movement of the wet front, and the effects of the degree of compaction, initial water content and deaired water on the infiltration rate.     

Late Permian post‐ophiolitic trondhjemites from Central Iran: a mark of subduction role in growth of Paleozoic continental crust

Late Permian trondhjemites in the Anarak area occur as stocks and dykes, which cross cut the Anarak ophiolite and its overlying metasedimentary rocks, and are exposed along the northern Anarak east–west main faults. These leucocratic intrusive bodies have enclaves of all ophiolitic units and metamorphic rocks. They are composed of amphibole, plagioclase (oligoclase), quartz, zircon and muscovite. Secondary minerals are chlorite (pycnochlorite), epidote, albite, magnetite and calcite. Whole‐rock major‐ and trace‐element analyses reveal that they are characterized by high SiO ₂ (67.8–71.0 wt%), Al ₂ O ₃ (14.9–17.1 wt%) and Na ₂ O (5.3–8.6 wt%), low K ₂ O (0.1–1.5 wt%; average: 0.8 wt%), low Rb/Sr ratio (0.01–0.40; average: 0.09), low Y (3–6 ppm), negative Ti, Nb and Ta anomalies, slightly negative or positive Eu anomaly, LREE enrichment and fractionated HREE. These rocks present 2 to 40 times enrichment in inclined chondrite‐normalized REE patterns. Geochemical characteristics of the Anarak trondhjemites all reflect melting of a mafic protolith at more than 10 kbar. The field evidence and whole‐rock chemistry reveal that these rocks have been crystallized from magmas derived from melting of subducted Anarak oceanic crust. This study reveals that melting of garnet amphibolite was an important element of continent formation in the study area.