监督还是掏空:大股东持股比例与股价崩盘风险

随着大股东持股比例的上升,究竟会导致大股东更有动力监督管理层,并降低其掏空动机,还是更有能力掏空上市公司、损害中小投资者的利益呢?为此,本文以2003~2012年中国A股上市公司为样本,考察了大股东持股比例对股价崩盘风险的影响。研究发现,随着第一大股东持股比例的提高,未来股价崩盘风险显著下降;在控制了内生性等问题之后,该结论依然成立。这支持了"监督效应"和"更少掏空效应",但不支持"更多掏空效应"。进一步分析表明,大股东持股同时通过"监督效应"和"更少掏空效应"影响股价崩盘风险。本文不但深化了股价崩盘风险影响因素研究,而且有助于我们全面认识大股东在公司治理中的角色,对于深入理解大股东在资本市场中的作用,以及如何防范股价崩盘、促进资本市场健康有序发展都具有重要意义。     

股权集中、大股东掏空与管理层自利行为

从我国高度集中的股权结构出发,建立理论模型分别研究在单一代理关系下,影响大股东掏空行为的主要因素,以及在双重代理关系下,大股东与管理层之间的掏空-自利博弈行为及其主要影响因素.证明了:1)在单一代理关系下,影响大股东掏空行为的因素为公司成长性、中小投资者保护水平以及大股东持股比例.公司成长性越高、中小投资者保护水平越高...     

高管股权激励与大股东掏空抑制研究:大股东异质特征和制度情境的调节效应

在引入合谋薪酬的委托代理模型中,探究高管股权激励对大股东掏空的作用机制,通过数值模拟与规范分析,从收入效应、风险效应以及身份转换效应三个层面阐释高管股权激励对大股东掏空的影响路径,并以我国沪深A股2009年至2013年实施股权激励计划的上市公司为研究对象,运用面板回归分析发现:高管股权激励存在抑制大股东掏空程度的作用;在股权集中度低、控股层级高和两权分离度大,以及市场化程度低、国有性质和集团控股的公司中,高管股权激励对大股东掏空的抑制作用显著,成为有助于投资者保护的内部治理机制;准自然实验的PSM-DID方法稳健性检验也支持了研究假设,并且高管股权激励对大股东掏空在滞后两年的抑制效应显著。研究揭示了高管股权激励对大股东掏空的抑制作用及情境差异,这为从公司内外部治理机制提出抑制大股东掏空的政策提供了启示。     

股权对价博弈模型的研究

股权分置改革对价的核心是确定非流通股股东对流通股股东的补偿.论文通过建立股权对价模型讨论了无时间限制和有时间限制股权分置对价问题.研究显示:流通股和非流通股东对价博弈结果取决于的双方贴现因子的之比.政府的监督和时间限制条件的引入使非流通股股东的成本加大,从而使最终的股权补偿方案只能在一定的范围内实施,补偿范围由是非流通股股东提案成本,博弈次数,惩罚成本确定的函数.     

股权分置改革后IPO抑价与大股东的减持行为研究

股改后IPO公司大股东可能存在后市减持的动机。通过对股改前后在A股上市发行的555只新股进行实证研究发现,股改后第2～第10大股东持股比例越高的新股IPO抑价率越高,并且在上市后第13个月的股价相对市场指数下跌的幅度越大,而股改前则不存在这样的现象。研究结果表明,股改后新股大股东在12个月限售期满以后可能存在减持行为,而为了给后市减持提供更高的获利空间,大股东可能拉高新股的首日价格,从而造成了极高的IPO抑价率。     

大股东控制、股权制衡与公司绩效

在La Porta 等的研究模型基础上引入股权制衡等因素,在最终所有权框架下探讨大股东控制和股权制衡对公司绩效的影响.研究结果表明,公司绩效与最终控制股东现金流权正相关,与控制权和现金流权的分离程度负相关,股权制衡的作用并不是简单地存在或不存在,而是取决于控制股东的最终所有权状态.在控制权和现金流权分离程度较高的公司中,股权制衡对大股东剥削行为的约束作用显著;但在控制权和现金流权分离程度较低的公司中,股权制衡可能因为导致大股东之间讨价还价而带来精力耗散,表现出更差的公司绩效.此外,股权制衡作用在相对控股、政府控制和低竞争行业公司中最为显著.     

股权分置改革与控制权配置

该文从控制权相关理论出发,并结合已实施的股权分置改革政策,对我国上市公司控制权配置特点和弊端进行分析,并对我国上市公司优化控制权配量提出自己的建议。     

股权比例、过度担保与隐蔽掏空——来自我国上市公司对子公司担保的证据

本文借鉴LLSv的掏空模型,模型化推导了控股股东对上市公司的隐蔽掏空模式,建立了控股股东持股比例与掏空程度的分段函数关系.以2004年我国沪深A股上市公司对子公司担保的386起事件为样本,并把样本分为过度担保组和适度担保组,运用事件研究法进行实证检验.发现过度担保样本组累计超额收益率显著为负,而适度担保组的市场反应为正但不显著,由此推测过度担保的上市公司具有向控股股东输送利益的倾向.多元回归结果表明,对于第一大股东持股比例和国家持股比例的回归系数而言,60%均是其有效的临界点.当大股东持股比例低于60%时,大股东存在通过上市公司对子公司担保的方式掏空上市公司的现象,但回归系数不显著;当持股比例高于60%时,则产生了显著的利益协调效应.能有效地抑制掏空.通过分类变量和股权临界变量的多种组合,回归发现,国有性质的上市公司被控股股东掏空程度更高;与第一大股东持股比例变量相比.国家持股比例变量的股权临界值对CAR的影响更加显著.     

股权分置改革与资本市场效率关系研究

股权分置改革作为一项基本制度的改革,是提高资本市场效率的有效途径,这对于资本市场的和谐发展和深化意义重大。     

股权分置改革中股东间博弈的实证研究

股权分置问题是中国证券市场最大的制度症结,股权分置改革的过程是非流通股股东与流通股股东之间,就非流通股获得流通权应支付的对价而进行的持续博弈过程.首先论述了股权分置改革中的博弈论基础,就股东间博弈的行为,博弈过程中股东的收益、股东的策略选择、博弈结果对市场平均对价水平的影响进行了论述;其次,研究了股权分置改革中以博弈论为基础的股东协商机制问题,并就股东间博弈的有效性进行了实证研究;最后,对投票表决制下的有关问题做出了分析并提出了建议.     

Probabilistic Selling,Channel Structure,and Supplier Competition*

Probabilistic selling has recently been introduced to facilitate consumer segmentation. It allows the retailer to mix products from multiple competing suppliers to generate a probabilistic good. The probabilistic good effectively creates consumer differentiation, and its presence invites extensive interactions among channel participants. In this article, we show that the equilibrium channel structure may be asymmetric: one supplier retains his brand‐name product and the other one delegates to the retailer. We further show that this asymmetric equilibrium can be mutually beneficial for all firms compared with other equilibria. In addition, the introduction of the probabilistic good is beneficial to the channel members.     

基于信号博弈的企业并购交易行为分析

企业并购是并购交易双方在追求各自利益最大化的前提下所进行的信号博弈过程。并购交易信号博弈分析表明,由于企业并购交易市场的信息不对称性和不完美性,企业并购交易将会出现市场完全成功、部分成功、接近失败和完全失败四种不同性质和效率的市场均衡,其中只有市场完全成功是最理想和有效率的均衡。但在具体的企业并购交易中出现哪种均衡,主要取决于企业并购交易博弈模型中不同质量目标企业的价值、交易价格、风险成本和质量高、低比例之间的相互关系。减少出现上述三种低效率均衡机会的最有效方法是克服企业并购交易市场的信息不对称性问题,并提高并购企业的识别能力。     

Group Buying,Buyer Heterogeneity,and Sellers' Bargaining Power*

Group buying enables collective bargaining opportunity that individual buyers lack to negotiate prices with sellers. This potential negotiation capability has two opposing effects. On the one hand, the prospect of the group being able to negotiate price with its rival forces each seller to lower its price offer, as too high a price will induce the group to give its rival an opportunity to undercut its price via negotiation, likely taking away all the buyers. On the other hand, the potential negotiation opportunity may also discourage sellers from competing aggressively in their price offers, as the benefit of charging a low price could be offset by competitors in negotiation, thus yielding overall higher prices for the buyers. In this study, we find that compared to individual purchase, buyers benefit from collective bargaining opportunity by group buying only if sellers’ bargaining power relative to the buyer group is low and/or buyers’ preferences toward the sellers are sufficiently differentiated. Given buyers’ strategic choice of group purchase, sellers may be worse off with a further increase in bargaining power, and so may social welfare.     

A Cooperative Savings Game Approach to a Time Sensitive Capacity Allocation and Scheduling Problem

We consider a competitive scheduling setting with arbitrary number of agents each having the option to utilize two parallel resources to satisfy its demand: (i) an in‐house resource dedicated to process only the tasks of each specific agent, and (ii) a flexible resource capable of processing all agents' workloads. In a noncooperative setting, each agent would determine how much of its demand it will subcontract to the flexible resource with the objective to deliver its entire demand as quickly as possible subject to the priority rules set by the owner of the flexible resource (i.e., third‐party). In this study, we also allow for agents to coalesce with other agents and update their initial subcontracting decisions to attain rescheduling savings. Evidently, a grand coalition of all agents can coordinate to achieve the maximum savings possible, but the resulting schedule may yield individual losses for a subset of agents (which we refer to as “losers”), thus necessitating a transfer payment scheme to distribute the rescheduling savings among the agents in an equitable way. We model the rescheduling interactions among the agents as a cooperative savings game, and propose savings distribution schemes that invoke the core allocation concept.     

员工效率工资与企业的管理效率分析

本文在文献回顾基础上分析了效率工资的solow模型和shapiro-stiglitz模型存在的局限性,认为由于工资合约具有非完备性特点,通过工资合约对员工进行完全激励是困难的;之后基于重复博弈理论构建了同时考虑内外部劳动力市场要求的效率工资模型,运用博弈理论分析了企业和员工在效率工资博弈过程中的行为和策略,揭示了该模型较之均衡效率工资模型具有的更为丰富的经济内涵,从八个方面阐述了效率工资对企业提高管理效率的价值,认为效率工资需要与其它激励机制相互补充.建立全面报酬体系才能实现其激励的目的.     

Stochastic and Intransitive Behavior in a State-Preference Model of Asset Choice*

Most models of investor behavior assume a time-state independent utility function and result in a deterministic solution where a given set of inputs uniquely specifies the decision. In contrast, a state preference model using a time-state dependent utility function is derived in this paper. The model allows the investment choice decision to be analyzed in a game theoretic context. The general solution is a mixed strategy which allows for a probabilistic interpretation of the decision. The approach presented in this paper can accommodate anomalies such as intransitivity of preference and satisficing as rational behavior. An example of a possible implementation is given along with interpretations of the outcomes.     

Channel Strategies and Stocking Policies in Uncapacitated and Capacitated Supply Chains*

A supply chain consisting of a single supplier distributing two independent products through multiple retailers is analyzed in this paper. The supplier needs to incentivize its retailers to adopt stocking policies that are mutually advantageous and that result in the optimal level of market coverage. The focus is on determining the optimal stocking policies for retailers and the resulting distribution strategy given that the supplier has either unlimited or limited capacity. The results provide insights on the optimal distribution strategy and stocking policies for the supply chain. In general, the paper shows that it is optimal for the supplier to use an intensive distribution strategy (i.e., the products are stocked by all retailers). Selective or exclusive strategies are optimal only when retailers are risk averse, stocking synergies exist, and there are differences in demand or supply uncertainties across products. The analysis also shows that retailers hold larger stocks of a product which generates higher supplier margins but only when the supplier has unlimited capacity. If the supplier has limited capacity, then their margins have no effect on retailers' stocking decisions. Contrary to conventional wisdom, retailers hold larger stocks of a product that has less demand uncertainty as compared to one that has more demand uncertainty.     

家族控制与对价支付——一项基于中国家族上市公司的实证研究

随着家族上市公司的数量不断增多,对家族企业的研究也越发显得迫切和重要,然而目前在我国,对于家族控制是否有利于上市公司的发展,理论界始终没有形成统一、全面的评价.本文借助股权分置改革的契机,以"对价"这个囊括公司表现、市场评价、投资 者预期等各方面因素的综合指标为切入点,利用该指标的综合性与预期性优势,重新审视家族控制对我国上市公司的影响.以2006年底进行股改的上市公司为样本,研究发现家族控制有利于我国上市公司的发展,市场给予良好的评价,其在全流通过程中支付的成本较低;对家族分样本进一步分析得出,直接上市的家族企业比买壳上市的家族企业总体表现更好;聘请职业经理人管理的比家族成员直接参加管理的上市公司市场评价更高.     

Optimal Offer Strategies in Mergers and Acquisitions*

This paper models the corporate takeover process as a bargaining game under certainty. During the takeover process, an acquirer is generally uncertain about the minimum price the target shareholders will accept. Normally, a takeover is concluded after a sequence of offers have been made. This paper derives optimal offer strategies for the buyer at each stage of this bargaining game under uncertainty. Uncertainty about the target's minimum acceptable price is represented by a probability distribution. Optimal offer strategies depend on the probability distribution of the minimum acceptable price, which can change during the offer process.     

进入壁垒与企业产品差异化策略

本文在两个被贸易壁垒分离的市场上分析了贸易壁垒对产品横向差异化的影响。所获得的主要结论为,当在市场A与市场B中都存在竞争时,每个企业所生产的商品在国内销售的价格要高于其出口的价格。当贸易壁垒足够高时,国内企业垄断市场是可能的。当有双向贸易时,即两个企业在市场上充分竞争时,高的贸易壁垒会使企业将产品靠近其竞争者,从而导致产品差异化程度降低,模仿更容易发生。