Adaptation in the context of technology development and transfer

Starting from a summary of key developments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) related to adaptation and technologies, the commentary provides an initial review of the available literature relevant to adaptation in the context of technology development and transfer. It summarizes what technologies for adaptation are, how they relate to development, and what their role is in adaptation. It subsequently highlights a number of policy and research issues that could be important to inform future policy. The commentary has two key messages. First, it argues that informed policy decisions on technology development and transfer to enhance adaptation require systematic assessments of the findings in the theoretical and empirical literature. Second, in light of the potential for overlap between processes for adaptation and processes for technologies for adaptation, there is a need for coordination and exchange of information between the work under the Cancún Adaptation Framework and under the Technology Mechanism of the UNFCCC.     

Factors driving international technology transfer: empirical insights from a CDM project survey

This study empirically explores factors driving international technology transfer via Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects by explicitly considering factors that have been identified in the literature on international technology transfer as being relevant for transfer success. These factors include technological characteristics, such as the novelty and complexity of a technology, as well as the use of different transfer channels. Employing data from an original survey of CDM project participants, the econometric analysis also distinguishes between knowledge and equipment transfer. The findings suggest that more complex technologies and the use of export as a transfer channel are both associated with a higher degree of technology transfer. Projects involving two- to five-year-old technologies seem more likely to involve technology transfer than both younger and older technologies. Energy supply and efficiency projects are correlated with a higher degree of technology transfer than non-energy projects. Unlike previous studies, technology transfer was not related to project size, to the length of time a country has hosted CDM projects, or to the host country's absorptive capacity. The findings for knowledge and equipment transfer are similar, but not identical.

Policy relevance

CDM projects are often seen as a vehicle for the transfer of climate technologies from industrialized to developing countries. Technology transfer is an important element of the new and emerging market mechanisms and frameworks under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, such as the Technology Mechanism, Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions, or Intended Nationally Determined Contributions. Thus, a clearer understanding of the factors driving technology transfer may help policy makers in their design of such mechanisms. For the CDM, this may be achieved by including more stringent technology transfer requirements in countries’ CDM project approval processes. Based on our findings, such policies should focus particularly on energy supply and efficiency technologies. Likewise, it may be beneficial for host countries to condition project approval on the novelty and complexity of technologies and adjust these provisions over time. Since such technological characteristics are not captured systematically by project design documents, using a survey-based evaluation opens up new opportunities for a more holistic and targeted evaluation of technology transfer in CDM projects.     

CDM and international technology transfer: empirical evidence on wind power

This article examines the effect of the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) on the international transfer of wind power technologies. The analysis is conducted using patent data from over 100 countries during the period 1988–2008. It is found that transfers from Annex I countries to non-Annex I countries are significantly affected by the contemporaneous establishment of projects under the CDM. However, when taking into account the cumulative effect of CDM projects, the effect is negative. Finally, the effect of domestic absorptive capacity in the host country is positive and significant. Because involvement with the CDM may increase the latter, this is an important area for further research.     

Technological capability and transfer for achieving South Africa's development goals

Technological capability and technology transfer both play important roles in achieving low-carbon development targets and the concepts of both have appeared in national development and climate policy debates. Yet, they differ. Improving capabilities and transfer mechanisms are two differing approaches to technological development. Technology transfer is associated with a key political dynamic within international climate policy, in that developing countries request support from industrialised countries. Whereas technological capability focuses on building internal capabilities and is often framed in the context of national industrial policy plans rather than relying on external support. We argue that technology development, a combination of these approaches, can contribute to South Africa's low-carbon development through innovation and technology-based mitigation actions that increase domestic technological capabilities. Technological capability needs to become a determinant of mitigation action to effectively contribute to achieving South Africa's low-carbon development goals. International technology transfer and cooperation should contribute to boosting domestic capabilities to advance technological development. Technology transfer based on pure sales will not contribute to achieving long-term low-carbon development goals.     

Role of renewable energy in climate mitigation: a synthesis of recent scenarios

The role of renewable energy in climate change mitigation is explored through a review of 162 recent medium- to long-term scenarios from 15 large-scale, energy-economic and integrated assessment models. The current state of knowledge from this community is assessed and its implications drawn for the strategic context in which policymakers and other decision-makers might consider renewable energy. The scenario set is distinguished from previous ones in that it contains more detailed information on renewable deployment levels. All the scenarios in this study were published during or after 2006. Within the context of a large-scale assessment, the analysis is guided primarily by four questions. What sorts of future levels of renewable energy deployment are consistent with different CO₂ concentration goals? Which classes of renewable energy will be the most prominent energy producers and how quickly might they expand production? Where might an expansion in renewable energy occur? What is the linkage between the costs of mitigation and an expansion of renewable energy?     

Climate change technology transfer: a new paradigm and policy agenda

This article proposes a shift to a paradigm that is more extensive than the current narrow focus on North—South climate change technology transfers, towards a more inclusive ‘global’ paradigm. An implication of the paradigm shift is that there should be a concomitant expansion of the policy agendas of the international climate and trade regimes. The traditional North—South paradigm of technology transfer ignores the increasing importance of developing countries as sources of advanced climate-friendly technologies, and therefore ignores South—North and South—South transfers. Further, whereas the North—South paradigm has emphasized developing countries' intellectual property rights policies as barriers to technology transfers, the ‘global’ paradigm focuses attention on trade and investment policy barriers, including developed countries' policies that inhibit technology transfer from developing countries. The analysis is relevant to international negotiations in the post-2012 climate regime, and is also relevant to the future development of the trade regime—not only at the multilateral level in the WTO, but also at the regional and bilateral levels.     

New lessons for technology policy and climate change: investment for innovation

The direction of UK energy policy requires a renewed impetus if the goal of climate change stabilization is to be met. Cost is not the main issue: a transformation to a low-carbon energy system may be no more expensive than meeting future energy demands with fossil fuels. Institutional barriers are preventing the large-scale adoption of the necessary technologies. New institutions to promote low-carbon technologies have not yet led to investment on the necessary scale. Further changes to the operation of the UK electricity markets to create a ‘level playing field’ for small-scale and intermittent generation are necessary. UK policy can contribute to international agreements following on from the Kyoto Accord, which also need to address the institutional barriers to energy technology development and transfer.     

1979—2018年西藏自治区气候与冰川冻土变化及其对可再生能源的潜在影响

作为全球气候变化敏感区和生态脆弱区,西藏地区拥有丰富的可再生能源。本研究基于多源数据产品（地基和遥感观测）分析了近40 a（1979-2018年）西藏自治区气候和冰川冻土的变化状况及它们对可再生能源的潜在影响。结果表明：1）1979-2018年间藏北高原暖湿化,藏南暖干化。全区站点平均升温速率高达0.54℃·（10 a）^-1;藏南降水略有减少而藏北降水增加;2）日照时数和风速普遍显著下降,但风速在2002年左右停止下降,2010年以后有所回升;3）在快速升温下,西藏地区冰川快速退缩,其中以藏东南地区和念青唐古拉山的退缩幅度最大,冰川最大减薄速率可达8.0 m·（10 a）^-1;多年冻土所占面积约43%,但稳定性较弱,退化严重。冰川退缩和冻土退化在短期内对河流径流有所贡献。因此,过去40 a西藏太阳能和风能减少,水能因冰川冻土变化的贡献有所增加,但预测水能的未来变化比较困难。     

Profitability of fossil-fuel production under different instruments in international climate policies

This article discusses how different climate policy instruments such as CO₂ taxes and renewable energy subsidies affect the profitability of fossil-fuel production, given that a fixed global climate target shall be achieved in the long term. Within an intertemporal framework, the model analyses show that CO₂ taxes reduce the short-term profitability to a greater extent than technology subsidies, since the competition from CO₂-free energy sources does not become particularly noticeable until decades later. Due to, for example, the discounting of future revenues, most fossil-fuel producers prefer subsidies to their competitors rather than CO₂ taxes. However, this conclusion does not apply to all producers. Oil producers outside OPEC lose the most on the subsidizing of CO₂-free energy, while CO₂ taxes only slightly reduce their profits. This is connected to OPEC's role in the oil market, as the cartel chooses to reduce its extraction significantly in the tax scenario. The results seem to be consistent with the observed behaviour of important players in the climate negotiations.     

The role of non-nation-state actors and side events in the international climate negotiations

United Nations climate change conferences have attracted an increasing number and range of observer participants, often outnumbering national delegates. The interactions between the formal and informal spaces of climate governance at the Conference of the Parties (COP) are explored by investigating why non-nation state actors (NNSAs) attend them and by measuring to what extent official UN Side Events provide relevant information for the formal negotiations. Based on primary empirical research at recent COPs, it is found that 60–75% of Side Events have related directly to items under negotiation in the post-2012 climate negotiations. In this regard, Side Events that facilitate informal exchange between stakeholders not only provide input into the negotiations but also allow issues beyond the realm of the negotiations to be discussed, reflecting the scope of climate change. Although Side Events are an effective forum to exchange ideas and network, their current format and purpose as being events ‘on the side’ does not offer a sufficient framework for coordination between the work of NNSAs and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process.     

National policy and SMEs in technology transfer: the case of Israel

Increasing the rate of climate technology transfer is a critical concern. The international community facilitates the development and deployment of climate technologies for the needs of the South in two primary ways: first, through the use of multilateral frameworks for technology transfer and, second, through in-country capacity building for research, development, and deployment in developing countries. However, scant attention is given to whether national-level frameworks in industrialized countries can support technology transfer. This issue may be of particular relevance to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in developed countries, due to their relative lack of experience in international markets. The barriers that prevent SMEs from developing and exporting more technologies to the South are identified, by using Israel as a case study. Although Israel is an important global source of climate technology innovation, it currently does not engage much with the developing world. Four principle barriers to greater involvement of OECD SMEs in technology transfer for climate mitigation in developing countries are: (1) lack of knowledge of market needs in developing economies, (2) lack of financial mechanisms to support R&D, (3) lack of opportunities for partnership building, and (4) lack of support for demonstration sites in developing countries.     

Intellectual property rights and the transfer of climate change technologies: issues,challenges, and way forward

The role of intellectual property rights (IPRs) in the development and transfer of climate change technologies has been a contentious issue in negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Irreconcilable differences seem to oppose those who believe IPRs are an inherent barrier to the transfer of climate change technologies and those who argue they are an essential incentive to innovation. After providing an overview of the polarized debate on this issue, this article reviews the existing literature and empirical evidence and looks into some practical initiatives and recent developments. Finally, it seeks to identify a way forward that could help overcome the current stalemate in international deliberations by suggesting a number of parameters to structure the discussion on this complex issue.     

How to increase technology transfers to developing countries: a synthesis of the evidence

The existing United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has failed to deliver the rate of low-carbon technology transfer (TT) required to curb GHG emissions in developing countries. This failure has exposed the limitations of universalism and renewed interest in bilateral approaches to TT. Gaps are identified in the UNFCCC approach to climate change TT: missing links between international institutions and the national enabling environments that encourage private investment; a non-differentiated approach for (developing) country and technology characteristics; and a lack of clear measurements of the volume and effectiveness of TTs. Evidence from econometric literature and business experience on climate change TT is reviewed, so as to address the identified pitfalls of the UNFCCC process. Strengths and weaknesses of different methodological approaches are highlighted. International policy recommendations are offered aimed at improving the level of emission reductions achieved through TT.     

US institutional pathways to clean coal and shale gas: lessons for China

China's 12th Five-Year Plan (2011–2015) envisages that shale gas and coal will be central to its energy future. However, for China to meet the energy security and climate change objectives set out in its 12th Five-Year Plan it will be reliant on the widespread commercial deployment of two key technologies; hydraulic fracturing combined with horizontal drilling for shale gas, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) for coal. China is moving to acquire these technologies through technology transfer and diffusion from the US, but progress has been slow, and neither is currently available in China on a commercial scale. Drawing on interviews in the US and China, this article argues that China's expectation of technology from the US may well be disappointed because of factors unique to the US institutional environment that have made the development of fracking technology possible and hinder the development of CCS technology at a commercial scale.

Policy relevance

If China is to meet the energy security and climate change objectives set out in its 12th Five-Year Plan it will be reliant on the widespread commercial deployment of fracking and clean coal technologies. While China expects to acquire these technologies via technology transfer and diffusion from the US, progress has been slow. Because of factors unique to the US institutional environment the availability of both technologies on a commercial scale in China is unlikely in the coming years. As a result, Chinese policy makers would be well-advised not to count on these technologies to meet their energy and climate goals.     

Shaping climate policy in the housing sector in northern Chinese cities

What are relevant urban development investment strategies for improving building energy efficiency (BEE) and decarbonizing the urban district heating supply in rapidly urbanizing China? Different trajectories of BEE and energy supply technologies are compared in the urban context in a northern Chinese city. Vigorous improvement of BEE will significantly enhance the prospective financial capacity to facilitate deployment of backstop technologies (e.g. carbon capture and storage) in order to decarbonize the energy supply and achieve the long-term targets of low-carbon buildings. Carbon finance instruments should be used to facilitate public policy to accompany the necessary transition in the urban development process. The government-run efficiency procurement scheme will overcome the problem of insufficient incentive and high transaction costs associated with individual Clean Development Mechanism projects. Appropriate investment strategies (allocation of financial resources over the time frame) will allow local governments to harness the large potentials of carbon emissions mitigation while minimizing the risk of long-term technical lock-in in the built environment in Chinese cities.     

Technology transfer in the CDM: the role of host-country characteristics

Technology transfer is not an explicit objective of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). However, it constitutes a potential co-benefit by helping to improve living conditions in developing countries. Understanding the drivers and barriers of technology transfer in CDM projects is therefore essential to direct investment flows in host countries and enhance the current CDM framework. In this respect, the contribution of this article is twofold. First, it identifies stepping stones and stumbling blocks to technology transfer in the CDM. Higher applied tariff rates on environmental goods and services as well as burdensome administrative procedures to start a new business are found to be negatively associated with the likelihood of a technology transfer. The results are robust to the exclusion of large host countries such as China and India from the sample. Second, as an extension, the article analyses the correspondence of these supporting factors and barriers with the likelihood of a transfer of the different types of technology (equipment, knowledge, or both). The article concludes with policy recommendations for non-Annex I governments, and suggestions for improvements to the CDM to better assess technology transfer in offsetting projects.     

企业气候变化意识及应对措施调查研究

基于2012—2015年在华北、珠三角和湖南湖北地区对企业管理人员进行的气候变化意识的问卷调查,构建了气候变化意识和企业应对气候变化措施两个一级指数。通过对调查结果交叉列联表分析,得出以下结论：企业管理人员的气候变化意识指数处于一般水平,并且受年龄、产业类型、企业类型的影响显著;企业应对气候变化措施指数也处于一般水平且不同企业水平差距较大,企业管理人员气候变化意识水平、未来预期和自主知识产权拥有量对其影响显著。     

Improving technology transfer through national systems of innovation: climate relevant innovation-system builders (CRIBs)

The Technology Executive Committee (TEC) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) recently convened a workshop seeking to understand how strengthening national systems of innovation (NSIs) might help to foster the transfer of climate technologies to developing countries. This article reviews insights from the literatures on Innovation Studies and Socio-Technical Transitions to demonstrate why this focus on fostering innovation systems has potential to be more transformative as an international policy mechanism for climate technology transfer than anything the UNFCCC has considered to date. Based on insights from empirical research, the article also articulates how the existing architecture of the UNFCCC Technology Mechanism could be usefully extended by supporting the establishment of CRIBs (climate relevant innovation-system builders) in developing countries – key institutions focused on nurturing the climate-relevant innovation systems and building technological capabilities that form the bedrock of transformative, climate-compatible technological change and development.

Policy relevance

This article makes a direct contribution to current work by the TEC of the UNFCCC on enhancing enabling environments for and addressing barriers to technology development and transfer (specifically, it will contribute to Activity 4.3 of the TEC's 2014–15 rolling workplan ‘Further work on enablers and barriers, taking into account the outcomes of the workshop on NSIs’). The article articulates both the conceptual basis that justifies a focus on NSIs in relation to climate technology transfer and makes concrete recommendations as to how this can be implemented under the Convention as a Party-driven extension to the existing architecture of the Technology Mechanism.     

英国的能源政策和气候变化应对策略——从2003版到2007版能源白皮书

从2003年的《能源白皮书--构建一个低碳社会》到2007年的《能源白皮书--迎接能源挑战》,英国的气候变化政策发生了微妙变化,从强调自身减排蜕变到一再强调国际行动以及建立相应国际框架的重要性和必要性。其中的原因有3方面：1) 英国的温室气体尤其是CO2 排放由于各种原因出现反弹迹象,减排前景不明朗;2) 英国能源供应的对外依存度越来越高,出于对能源供应安全的考虑;3) 担心发展中国家的温室气体排放势头抵消其减排努力。可见,在能源政策方面,英国变得更加务实。     

气候变暖对刚察县采暖气象指标的影响及节能潜力分析

利用青海省刚察县1961—2008年逐日气温资料,运用数理统计等方法,分析了该地区采暖期气象条件变化及节能潜力。结果表明,1961—2008年间,刚察县采暖期平均气温上升,负积温减少,采暖初日推迟、终日提前,采暖长度明显缩短;采暖度日与采暖期平均气温关系密切,采暖度日呈极显著下降趋势,特别是1994年气温突变后,下降趋势更加明显,冬季寒冷程度有所减弱,能耗需求量减小;该县采暖能源需求异常偏多主要分布在20世纪60年代,偏多年份以70—80年代为主,偏少年份出现在80年代中期以后,主要集中在2000年以后。气候变暖所致采暖节能率为7%,这对节约能源、减少大气污染和温室气体排放较为有利。