The determinant of production entry and exit model on financing behavior

This study seeks for equity/debt values and the relevant potential firm value with financing or not when the real options approach is assessed. The paper deals with the following relative problems: (1) the assessment rule of decision whether to stop production or not; (2) whether the (dis) investment cost or salvage could reflect the production scale; (3) whether the rate of capital cost or the rate of return in different stages could reflect the suitable risk premium; (4) when the investment cost, exit cost, and salvage are the linear functions of production volume and follow the geometric Brownian motion to analyze the optimum external financing behavior and to decide the production thresholds of production entry and exit.     

Entry and exit of service providers under cost uncertainty: a real options approach

From a real options perspective, this paper examines a service provider's entry and exit decisions toward two types of service outsourcing contracts under service transaction cost uncertainties. Specifically, for a service contract with a flexible duration, the service provider has an option to terminate the contract at any time point by paying a pre-determined exit penalty. For a contract with a fixed-duration, the service provider is obligated to deliver services for a pre-determined period of time. Under this framework, this study seeks to derive the transaction cost conditions that trigger the service provider’s exercise of entry and exit options. Furthermore, via analytical and numerical examinations, this study also uncovers how service transaction cost uncertainty and other business factors (eg, exit penalty and contract duration) influence the service provider’s entry and exit decisions as well as the choice of contract type (ie, fixed-duration versus flexible-duration).     

基金投资行为与投资绩效实证研究

本文主要研究2000年末到2004年6月国内基金投资行为与投资绩效。我们将基金交易行为分为:新进入、完全退出和对仓位进行调整3类,并分别研究其投资行为。研究结果显示,我国基金交易频率很高,近90%的基金采用动量投资策略,基金新进入股票时动量效应最强。价值型基金更易采取动量投资策略,高动量组收益高于低动量组收益。     

A dynamic free-entry oligopoly with sluggish entry and exit adjustments

We study a dynamic free-entry oligopoly with sluggish entry and exit of firms under general demand and cost functions. We show that the number of firms in a steady-state open-loop solution for a dynamic free-entry oligopoly is smaller than that at static equilibrium and that the number of firms in a steady-state memoryless closed-loop solution is larger than that in an open-loop solution.     

An investment model with switching costs and the option to abandon

We develop a complete analysis of a general entry–exit–scrapping model. In particular, we consider an investment project that operates within a random environment and yields a payoff rate that is a function of a stochastic economic indicator such as the price of or the demand for the project’s output commodity. We assume that the investment project can operate in two modes, an “open” one and a “closed” one. The transitions from one operating mode to the other one are costly and immediate, and form a sequence of decisions made by the project’s management. We also assume that the project can be permanently abandoned at a discretionary time and at a constant sunk cost. The objective of the project’s management is to maximise the expected discounted payoff resulting from the project’s management over all switching and abandonment strategies. We derive the explicit solution to this stochastic control problem that involves impulse control as well as discretionary stopping. It turns out that this has a rather rich structure and the optimal strategy can take eight qualitatively different forms, depending on the problems data.     

Highway games on weakly cyclic graphs

A highway problem is determined by a connected graph which provides all potential entry and exit vertices and all possible edges that can be constructed between vertices, a cost function on the edges of the graph and a set of players, each in need of constructing a connection between a specific entry and exit vertex. Mosquera (2007) introduce highway problems and the corresponding cooperative cost games called highway games to address the problem of fair allocation of the construction costs in case the underlying graph is a tree. In this paper, we study the concavity and the balancedness of highway games on weakly cyclic graphs. A graph G is called highway-game concave if for each highway problem in which G is the underlying graph the corresponding highway game is concave. We show that a graph is highway-game concave if and only if it is weakly triangular. Moreover, we prove that highway games on weakly cyclic graphs are balanced.     

制造企业成品出入库两级排队协同服务模型

优化企业成品出入库协同服务水平、平衡工作负荷,从而提高企业仓储服务效率、降低物流成本,是现代制造企业亟待解决的一个重要的管理细节问题。针对这个问题,本研究以仓储入库和出库两个排队过程为研究对象,建立出入库等待时间溢出情景下的两级排队协同服务模型,分析了在排队等待时间控制目标下,出入库员工优化配置方案。该模型引入溢出和串联两个协同服务机制,分三种情景即前方与后方服务台都有空闲,前方繁忙与后方空闲,前方空闲(或繁忙)与后方繁忙,建立了各情景下的系统状态转移方程,求解系统状态的概率,并进而推算出反映系统表现的各项指标,如员工使用率,队列长度,等待时间,以及等待时间超过溢出界值的概率。用制造企业成品出入库管理案例进行验证分析,对企业目前采用的M/M/S出入库排队系统与两级排队协同服务系统进行了数值计算对比。结果表明后者能有效提升出入库服务效率,减少出入库排队系统平均等待时间,降低由于入库和出库两个服务过程效率不均衡而产生的企业内部物流成本,是提升企业内部物流协同管理水平的一个重要方法。其应用可以服务于仓储出入库协同管理的信息化与自动化水平的提高。     

成本约束下不可再生资源开采微分对策问题研究

研究开采成本等重要因素对不可再生资源开采的影响.假定有N个厂商对不可再生资源进行开采,其面临的市场需求价格弹性为常数,开采成本是开采量的线性函数.利用微分对策理论,分析该寡头市场中各个厂商的均衡开采策略.研究表明,开采成本对是否开采、开采速度、结束时点等有重要影响.同时,本文还与某些经典论文进行了简要比较.     

Sequential entry and exit decisions with an ergodic performance criterion

We consider a variant of an optimisation problem involving sequential entry and exit decisions that has emerged in the economics literature as a real option model. The problem that we solve aims at maximising an ergodic, or long-term average, performance criterion in a pathwise as well as in an expected sense. Such a performance index is probably better suited to decision making within a sustainable economic environment. Our results include a complete characterisation of the optimal strategy, which can take qualitatively different forms depending on the problem's data, as well as explicit expressions for the maximal value of the associated performance index.     

An entry-exit model involving construction and abandonment periods

We analyze, using the optimal stopping theory, the entry-exit decision on a project, which takes time to be constructed and abandoned. We obtain the closed-form expressions of optimal start time of entry, optimal start time of exit, and the maximal expected present value of the project. In addition, we examine the effects of construction and abandonment periods on the optimal start times of entry and exit.     

Analysis of the determinants of survival for the Russian commercial banking industry: A new approach

We propose the study of the relevant factors for the survival of Russian commercial banks during the transition period. The accelerated development of the Russian commercial banking industry after the banking reform caused high rates of entry followed by a period of high rates of exit. As a consequence, many banks had to exit the market without refunding their deposits. Therefore, both for the banks and for the banks' depositors, it is of interest to identify the relevant factors that motivate the exit or the closing of the bank. We propose a different methodology based on penalized weighted least squares that represents a very general, flexible and innovative approach for this type of analysis. That is, the proposed methodology does not require the assumptions of a probability distribution for the variable under study or of any covariate parametric functional form for the covariate whose effect on the survival variable we wish to address. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regional surveillance of disjoint rectangles: a travelling salesman formulation

Mission planning for surveillance coverage is of both practical and theoretical interest. In brief, regional surveillance involves planning the search of certain given regions in the minimum possible time. The surveillance problem can therefore be described as a variant of the classical travelling salesman problem. The uniqueness of the problem lies in the different allowed entry and exit points. Additionally, the mission schedule has to ensure the probability of target detection must not be compromised. From the practical perspective, any reduction in travelling time provides immediate cost savings to the defence department. A dynamic programming formulation is derived for the regional surveillance problem. An example is included to illustrate the methodology.     

Levelling the playing field: A VIX-linked structure for funded pension schemes

In this article, we study intergenerational risk and cost sharing for a variety of collective funded pension plans. Inspired by the literature on contingent claim analysis in pension insurance, we derive time-varying contribution and benefit levels. The latter specifically include the fund surplus, which accounts for (intergenerational) risk sharing, and the VIX, which is related to cost sharing among generations. We find that pension schemes with a well-structured volatility-risk-adjusted component can be welfare enhancing for the entry and future cohorts. In addition, these schemes are fair from an ex ante perspective, provide adequate consumption profiles and high levels of satisfaction.     

需求风险下套期保值与市场进入分析

需求风险是企业面临的主要风险之一,对企业的生产经营和管理决策具有重要影响。本文考虑由多个风险厌恶企业构成的产品竞争市场,分析了需求风险下企业参与套期保值和市场进入的决策问题。文章首先通过Cournot博弈分析了套期保值对于规避需求风险的作用和意义;然后,探讨了企业参与套期保值和市场进入的决策过程,并给出了三种情形下的市场均衡结构;最后,通过数值实验对结论进行了验证。研究表明:套期保值提高了企业应对需求风险的能力,使企业获得更高的产量和收益;参与套期保值企业数量随着进入市场企业数量的增加而减少;当市场竞争程度或市场费用增加时,将会有更多的企业选择参与套期保值,而选择进入市场的企业会减少。     

Traffic flow modelling with junctions

Motivated by the modelling of a roundabout, we are led to study the traffic on a road with points of entry and exit. In this note, we would like to describe the modellisation of a junction and solve the Riemann problem for such a model. More precisely, between each point of discontinuity we use a multi-class extension of the LWR model to describe the evolution of the density of the vehicles, the ‘multi-class’ approach being used in order to distinguish the vehicles after their origin and destination. Then, we treat the points of entry and exit thanks to special boundary conditions that give bounds on the flows of the different types of vehicles. In the case of the one-T road we obtain a result of existence and uniqueness. This first step allows us to obtain a similar result for the n-T road. We describe these results and also some properties of the obtained solutions, in order to see how long this model is valid.     

On the complexity of simultaneous price-quantity adjustment processes

While the Walrasian price tâtonnement represents the traditional dynamic process in the general equilibrium context with and without production, Walras and other classics designed the process exclusively for pure exchange economies. In productive economies, the short-run output adjustment of existing firms and the entry/exit of firms should be modeled as well. So-called cross-dual processes which represent the classical approach to the dynamics of productive economies are discussed and extended. Complex motion can emerge in a discrete-time version of the original two-dimensional system when the aggregate demand function has a non-standard shape. A simultaneous process of price and short-run quantity adjustment with free entry and exit of competitive firms in a single market with a continuum of firms can generate closed orbits via a Hopf bifurcation when the slope of the demand function is positive at equilibrium. When the continuum economy is replaced by an economy with a finite number of firms, noisy limit cycles and complicated behavior can be observed.     

Entry and exit decisions with linear costs under uncertainty

From the viewpoint of stochastic programming, we rigorously analyse entry and exit decisions of a project which were proposed by Dixit [A. Dixit, Entry and exit decisions under uncertainty, J. Polit. Econ. 97 (1989), pp. 620–638]. In this article, instead of assuming that the costs are constant in classical research, we assume that they are linear with respect to the price of the commodity produced by the project. Under this assumption, we obtain a condition which guarantees that investing in the project is worthless; besides, the project may be terminated when the commodity price is greater than a certain value. In contrast, there are no such results provided that the costs are constant. Moreover, we provide an explicit solution of entry and exit decisions if the project is worthy to be invested in.     

Securitizing and tranching longevity exposures

We consider the problem of optimally designing longevity risk transfers under asymmetric information. We focus on holders of longevity exposures that have superior knowledge of the underlying demographic risks, but are willing to take them off their balance sheets because of capital requirements. In equilibrium, they transfer longevity risk to uninformed agents at a cost, where the cost is represented by retention of part of the exposure and/or by a risk premium. We use a signalling model to quantify the effects of asymmetric information and emphasize how they compound with parameter uncertainty. We show how the cost of private information can be minimized by suitably tranching securitized cashflows, or, equivalently, by securitizing the exposure in exchange for an option on mortality rates. We also investigate the benefits of pooling several longevity exposures and the impact on tranching levels.     

Subsidy Competition in Networks

This paper investigates a competitive location model on a network with free entry and exit. The given network consists of regions that represent independent jurisdictions. Market entry and exit are sequential. In each stage of the multi-stage game, the regions simultaneously decide what subsidy to offer to a firm should it located within its boundaries. The paper delineates three distinct classes of subsidy policies and examines their effects in a series of computational tests.