全球能源经济可计算一般均衡模型研究综述

全球能源经济可计算一般均衡(Computable General Equilibrium Model,CGE)模型是研究低碳政策对能源经济系统影响的主要工具,在国际低碳经济研究领域具有重要作用。全球能源经济CGE模型发展起始于20世纪70年代,经过数十年的拓展已经形成了一批发展成熟且应用广泛的模型平台。我国能源经济CGE模型研究开始于20世纪90年代,研究领域主要聚焦在中国本土与国内区域,而在全球尺度上的模型研究尚处于起步阶段。伴随我国在全球气候治理当中的重要性凸显,中国能源环境问题的研究需要具有国际视野。本文对当前全球能源经济CGE模型的研究现状进行分析,对全球CGE模型的主要作用与特点做出评价,并对典型模型进行比较,在介绍了模型优缺点的基础上对全球能源经济CGE模型的发展趋势与关键问题进行讨论,并对中国未来发展全球模型给出具体建议。全球能源经济CGE模型政策评估的主要优点是评估基于坚实的理论基础,可以根据相关理论判断模型结果是否合理并对政策的作用机制与影响结果做出基于经济规律的解释;以及能源与经济系统整体协调一致的相互作用机制。能源经济CGE模型主要争议性问题包括结果依赖大量参数且参数取值不稳健,以及模型假设过于理想且技术表达抽象。当前能源经济CGE模型研究的关键问题与主要趋向包括:关键参数的实证研究与准确校核、经济系统异质化与细节化描述、技术细节表述与内生化变革以及非理想与不均衡市场条件建模。建议中国开发全球模型应充分借鉴全球先进模型开发的基础与经验,在当前全球模型主流框架下重点研究发展中国家在非理想与不均衡市场环境下经济行为表述的改进,同时注重模型基础数据的整理与重要参数的校核。     

Doses to members of the general public and observed effects on biota: Chernobyl Forum update

The Chernobyl Forum was organized by the United Nations to examine the health and environmental effects of the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station. This paper is concerned with the environmental effects, as determined by Expert Group Environment. The accident resulted in release of a large amount of radioactive materials over a period of 10 days. These materials were deposited throughout Europe with the three more affected countries being Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine. More than 5 million persons lived on territories in these countries judged to be contaminated at >37kBqm(-2). Many countermeasures were employed to mitigate the effects of the accident. The collective effective dose to the residents of the contaminated territories is estimated to be about 55,000 person-Sv. Effects on non-human biota were observed that ranged from minor to lethal; the current increase in the number and diversity of species in the most contaminated area is due to absence of human pressure.     

The effects of geology and the impact of seasonal correction factors on indoor radon levels: a case study approach

Geology has been highlighted by a number of authors as a key factor in high indoor radon levels. In the light of this, this study examines the application of seasonal correction factors to indoor radon concentrations in the UK. This practice is based on an extensive database gathered by the National Radiological Protection Board over the years (small-scale surveys began in 1976 and continued with a larger scale survey in 1988) and reflects well known seasonal variations observed in indoor radon levels. However, due to the complexity of underlying geology (the UK arguably has the world's most complex solid and surficial geology over the shortest distances) and considerable variations in permeability of underlying materials it is clear that there are a significant number of occurrences where the application of a seasonal correction factor may give rise to over-estimated or under-estimated radon levels. Therefore, the practice of applying a seasonal correction should be one that is undertaken with caution, or not at all. This work is based on case studies taken from the Northamptonshire region and comparisons made to other permeable geologies in the UK.     

Properties,use and health effects of depleted uranium (DU): a general overview

Depleted uranium (DU), a waste product of uranium enrichment, has several civilian and military applications. It was used as armor-piercing ammunition in international military conflicts and was claimed to contribute to health problems, known as the Gulf War Syndrome and recently as the Balkan Syndrome. This led to renewed efforts to assess the environmental consequences and the health impact of the use of DU. The radiological and chemical properties of DU can be compared to those of natural uranium, which is ubiquitously present in soil at a typical concentration of 3 mg/kg. Natural uranium has the same chemotoxicity, but its radiotoxicity is 60% higher. Due to the low specific radioactivity and the dominance of alpha-radiation no acute risk is attributed to external exposure to DU. The major risk is DU dust, generated when DU ammunition hits hard targets. Depending on aerosol speciation, inhalation may lead to a protracted exposure of the lung and other organs. After deposition on the ground, resuspension can take place if the DU containing particle size is sufficiently small. However, transfer to drinking water or locally produced food has little potential to lead to significant exposures to DU. Since poor solubility of uranium compounds and lack of information on speciation precludes the use of radioecological models for exposure assessment, biomonitoring has to be used for assessing exposed persons. Urine, feces, hair and nails record recent exposures to DU. With the exception of crews of military vehicles having been hit by DU penetrators, no body burdens above the range of values for natural uranium have been found. Therefore, observable health effects are not expected and residual cancer risk estimates have to be based on theoretical considerations. They appear to be very minor for all post-conflict situations, i.e. a fraction of those expected from natural radiation.     

Sustainable agricultural attitudes and behaviors: a gender analysis of Iranian farmers

The purpose of this paper is to compare the attitudes of male and female rice growers towards environmental sustainability and identify the constructs that will influence their attitudes and behaviors. A survey methodology with systematic sampling techniques was used to select 181 households in four villages’ of Kazeroon, Iran. Results indicated that women farmers’ attitudes were more positive toward sustainability. A model was developed to explain farmers’ attitudes and behavior toward environmental sustainability. Finally, the determinants of sustainable agriculture attitudes and behavior are discussed. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

基于能值的中国农业绿色经济增长与空间收敛

构造合理的评价指标,对农业绿色经济增长现状及其演变进行客观评估与分析,是实现传统农业向绿色农业转变,促进农业经济可持续发展的迫切要求。本文基于能值理论,对2003—2014年中国及各省域单元农业绿色GDP进行了测算,在此基础上,利用空间分析方法研究我国农业绿色经济增长的空间格局与收敛特征。结果表明:1相较于传统农业GDP,中国人均农业绿色GDP增长相对缓慢,农业绿色GDP占农业传统GDP的比重在80%—85%之间,并呈下降趋势。2我国农业绿色经济增长存在显著的空间集聚,且集聚效应逐渐增强。3人均农业绿色GDP并未打破传统经济增长东部高、西部低的整体格局。东部经济发达地区更高的农业生产效率和西部相对粗放的生产方式是形成这种空间格局的主要原因。4农业人均绿色GDP的收敛分析适用于空间误差自回归模型,考虑了空间自相关因素后得出的收敛速度快于普通收敛分析的收敛速度。因此,准确评价农业经济增长水平需要充分考虑农业增长中的资源环境代价。在今后的发展过程中,我国应实施差别化的农业绿色发展政策,经济发达地区需要进一步减少农业经济增长中的资源环境成本,在继续扩大高增长优势下,促进农业发展的绿色转型。而欠发达地区则应在稳定粮食生产的同时更加注重生态环境保护,努力实现整体跨越式发展。各地区还应加快现代农业技术的转移与扩散,通过增强技术知识的空间溢出效应来提高农业绿色经济增长的收敛速度,尤其是农业发展落后地区应加强与先进地区的交流合作,大力引进先进的农业生产技术与管理经验,提升人力资本水平,以逐步缩小差距,促进农业绿色经济的协调发展。     

Shedding light on a neglected area: a new approach to knowledge creation

Awareness is needed of sustainability issues that are currently neglected but potentially important. A computer-based approach can highlight unconscious and neglected areas because it can structure vast amounts of knowledge. In this article, we propose a methodology to perceive unconscious areas of sustainability with the support of a computer-based approach, which creates a matrix, named the recognized-unrecognized matrix, which highlights both local and globally neglected problems. A case study is conducted to consider the potential contribution of the aviation industry to sustainability issues. We demonstrate that a citation network analysis is an effective methodology to chart the recognized-unrecognized matrix. We highlight issues of water use in the aviation industry by designing an innovative water and air circulation system, which significantly reduces water and fuel consumption on board airplane flights. We also suggest a new approach to integrating both explicit and tacit knowledge to enable knowledge creation.     

Body burden of contaminants and biological effects in mussels: an integrated approach

An investigation of contaminants and biological effects in mussels from Halifax Harbour, Nova Scotia, Canada, focused on a 6 km section in the central most industrialized core of the harbour, where a site was previously identified as highly contaminated. The aim of the study was to compare the body burden of mussels in terms of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), dichlorophenyltrichloroethane (DDT family), coprostanol and elements, relative to biological parameters such as condition indices, sex ratio, survival time in air, and to biochemical indicators of mussels' health analysed in gills, digestive gland and gonad tissues. These markers are total sugar and lipid content of gonads, mitochondrial electron transport activity in digestive gland and gonad tissues, lipid peroxidation in gill, digestive gland and gonad tissues, and heme oxidase activity in the digestive gland. At the north western end of the area, near a major sewage effluent, shorter survival time, higher oxidative stress and metabolism, gonad electron transport activity, levels of coporostanol, PAH, p,p'-dichlorophenyldichlo-roethylene (p,p'-DDE), Ag, Cu, Fe and P were observed. At the opposite south eastern end, longer survival time, higher lipid content, lowest condition indices and concentrations of coprostanol, PAH and p,p'-DDE, but higher concentrations of Sn and Cd, were detected. On-going improvements to sewage treatment in Halifax Harbour, including construction of sewage treatment plants that will discharge into deeper parts of the central harbour, should improve inter-tidal mussels' health in our study area.     

Violence in environmental conflicts: the need for a multidimensional approach

Although studies on environmental conflicts have engaged with the subject of violence, a multidimensional approach has been lacking. Using data from 95 environmental conflicts in Central America, we show how different forms of violence appear and overlap. We focus on direct, structural, cultural, slow, and ecological forms of violence. Results suggest that the common understanding of violence in environmental conflicts as a direct event in time and space is only the tip of the iceberg and that violence can reach not only environmental defenders, but also communities, nature, and the sustainability of their relations.     

低碳村镇:低碳经济的一个新概念

全球气候变暖已经对人类社会的经济发展、生态与环境产生了深远的影响,农村占据了重要的角色,中国有48 000多个乡(镇)6、91 510个行政村,农村人口有9.4亿,真正长期居住在农村的农民7.5亿左右,解决农业、农村、农民"三农"问题是中国社会可持续发展的关键。本文结合低碳经济和低碳发展的理念,借鉴低碳城市的概念、内涵和演变规律,提出发展以农畜结合、节约能源、减少污染、培肥土壤、开发生物质能等为主要内容的低碳产业,推广清洁能源改善农村人居,培育农民低碳发展意识,是解决食品安全、增加农业产值、减少温室气体排放的现代农村社会发展的必然趋势。在此基础上,阐述了"资源高效、农民增收、环境友好、食品安全和低碳排放"为内涵的低碳村镇概念,建议了提升村民低碳意识、增加土壤碳汇、改善农居环境和提高植被面积等4个方面的解决途径,并结合山东牟平国家可持续发展示范区的2个典型案例进行了简要效益分析。     

Blue economy and the quadruple helix model: the case of Qingdao

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Blue Economy (BE), as a novel approach fostering the sustainability of oceans and coastal areas for economic growth, is considered an enabler for...     

Critical reflections on a systems approach application in practice: a Baltic lagoon case study

This paper contributes to our understanding of the challenges faced when seeking to apply systemic, integration concepts in ‘arenas of practice’. It takes a critical look at the application of the systems-based SPICOSA Project in the region of the Oder (Szczecin) Lagoon, which forms the border between Germany and Poland. The paper highlights a range of place-based and temporal-based factors, which need careful consideration when adopting systems-based approaches to Integrated Coastal Zone Management and makes a series of recommendations for how such approaches might be approved. The experience within the study site was that challenges relating to scale, in one of its many facets, strongly influenced abilities to integrate within the systemic approach. Our view is that cross-scale issues and multi-level challenges can be thought of as one of the dominant factors controlling the successfulness of system approaches to managing complex environments.     

An introductory note on the environmental economics of the circular economy

This paper provides an introduction to some of the fundamental principles and approaches in environmental economics which are of significance to achieving an integrated sustainability science. The concept of a circular economy, introduced by the late David Pearce in 1990, addresses the interlinkages of the four economic functions of the environment. The environment not only provides amenity values, in addition to being a resource base and a sink for economic activities, it is also a fundamental life-support system. Environmental economists have suggested that, taking these four functions as an analytical starting point, unpriced or underpriced services should be internalised in the economy. In Europe significant advances have been achieved in the pricing of externalities by means of truly interdisciplinary analysis which accounts in detail for the environmental consequences. The monetary estimates reached as a result of such interdisciplinary research are gradually being applied to the economic analysis of environmental policy priorities. Although such figures provide only a partial and incomplete picture of the environmental costs at stake, they support and inform the analysis of the virtues of a circular economy for individual resources as well as for sustainability as a future trajectory.     

Climate proofing the Zuidplaspolder: a guiding model approach to climate adaptation

Climate change will have an impact on various sectors, such as housing, infrastructure, recreation and agriculture. Climate change may change spatial demands. For example, rising temperatures will increase the need for recreation areas, and areas could be assigned for water storage. There is a growing sense that, especially at the local scale, spatial planning has a key role in addressing the causes and impacts of climate change. This paper promotes an approach to help translate information on climate change impacts into a guiding model for adaptive spatial planning. We describe how guiding models can be used in designing integrated adaptation strategies. The concept of guiding models has been developed in the 1990s by Tjallingii to translate the principles of integrated water management in urban planning. We have integrated information about the present and future climate change and set up a climate adaptation guiding model approach. Making use of climate adaptation guiding models, spatial planners should be able to better cope with complexities of climate change impacts and be able to translate these to implications for spatial planning. The climate adaptation guiding model approach was first applied in the Zuidplaspolder case study, one of the first major attempts in the Netherlands to develop and implement an integrated adaptation strategy. This paper demonstrates how the construction of climate adaptation guiding models requires a participatory approach and how the use of climate adaptation guiding models can contribute to the information needs of spatial planners at the local scale, leading to an increasing sense of urgency and integrated adaptation planning process.     

In-field radon measurement in water: a novel approach

This paper presents a novel approach of measuring radon in-water in the field by inserting a MEDUSA gamma-ray detector into a 210 L or 1000 L container. The experimental measurements include investigating the effect of ambient background gamma-rays on in-field radon measurement, calibrating the detector efficiency using several amounts of KCl salt dissolved in tap water, and measuring radon in borehole water. The results showed that there is fairly good agreement between the field and laboratory measurements of radon in water, based on measurements with Marinelli beakers on a HPGe detector. The MDA of the method is 0.5 Bq L⁻¹ radon in-water.     

ICT applications in the research into environmental sustainability: a user preferences approach

Whether information and communication technology (ICT) constitutes a threat or a cure to environment??s deterioration is controversially discussed. Empirical evidence on the impacts of ICT is rare, so that generalizable lessons can hardly be drawn. This study provides empirical results on the role of ICT in research for environmental sustainability, but instead of ascertaining the impact of ICT on environmental protection, we conduct an analysis of the use of ICT in sustainability research. We assess the preferences of experts in different thematic sustainability fields for applying ICT tools, and we investigate ways to improve the application of these tools in order to augment their returns with respect to environmental protection research. This analysis is based on a set of surveys that were administered to international experts to evaluate the importance of ICT in environmental sustainability research and the research demands in key environmental sectors, such as climate change, natural resources, energy and biodiversity. The methodological framework is built on the analysis of users?? preferences for future developments in ICT tools using stated preferences techniques. Overall results suggest that ICT tools need to be developed in specific contexts, taking into account users?? needs and expectations. Our analysis shows that the use of ICT in environmental research is of great importance in the scientific community, but it can also play a crucial role in the policy context.     

Physico-chemical and toxicological characterization of the historic estuarine sediments: a multidisciplinary approach

The accumulation rates, the geochronology of metals and PAH contamination, and the Microtox toxicity are studied in five sediment cores (50 cm length) covering different areas of the Santander Bay, Northern Spain. Chronology given by (210)Pb and (137)Cs reveals significant differences in accumulation rates between sites (0.2-1.1 cm/year), as well as a variable degree of anthropogenic enrichment factors for Fe, Mn, Cu, Pb, Zn, Ni (from 1 to 15) and concentrations of summation Sigma 16PAHs (from 0.01 to 23.84 mg/kg dw) in sediments over the last 90 years. The results indicate the increasing contamination pressure from industrial and urban activities along the Bay. No toxic results from the Microtox test are obtained either with pore water or with normalised sediment aqueous extracts (European Norm EN 12457), suggesting low water solubility and low availability of contaminants in the studied sediments. However, the EC50 values from the Microtox Basic Solid Phase Test (BSPT) ranged from 0.03% to 2.35%, showing vertical toxicity profiles in accordance with metal and PAHs behaviour. The correlation degrees of Microtox BSPT toxicity to chemical concentration in sediment profiles are widely variable showing a high site-dependent toxicity. The oligochaete Limnodrilus hoffmeisteri has been used as a chronic bioassay over surface sediments of two of the studied sites, showing results coherent with the Microtox BSPT acute test results. Global results of the present work provide regional geochemical baselines for metals and PAHs and toxicological data now make it possible to obtain a preliminary quality assessment of the Santander Bay sediment profiles.     

How ICT can contribute to realize a sustainable society in the future: a CGE approach

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Many information and communications technology (ICT) services have become commonplace worldwide and are certain to continue to spread faster than...     

Positive environmental effects of the coronavirus 2020 episode: a review

Environment, Development and Sustainability - The outbreak of COVID-19 has made a global catastrophic situation that caused 1,039,406 deaths out of 35,347,404 infections, and it will also cause...