Modeling the stochastic dependence of air pollution index data

The air pollution index (API) is a common tool, which is often used for determining the quality of air in the environment. In this study, a discrete-time Markov chain model is applied for describing the stochastic behaviour of API data. The study reported in this paper is conducted based on the data collected from Klang city in Malaysia for a period of 3 years (2012–2014). Based on the API data, we considered a five-state Markov chain for depicting the five different states of the air pollution. We identified the Markov chain is an ergodic Markov chain and determined the limiting distribution for each state of the air pollution. In addition, we have identified the mean first passage time from one state to another. Based on the limiting distribution and the mean return time, we found that the risk of occurrences for unhealthy events is small. However, the risk remains notably troubling. Therefore, the standard of air quality in Klang falls within a margin that is considered healthy for human beings.     

FY-2(02批)气象卫星异常事件与空间天气关系研究

本文研究了FY-2(02批)气象卫星异常事件与空间天气的关系.根据异常产生的原理和现象,研究中把FY-2(02批)气象卫星在轨运行期间发生的异常事件分为设备状态跳变和天线消旋失锁两大类,并分别分析了太阳X射线、磁通总量、各种a粒子、各种质子和电子通量等空间天气参数与两类异常事件之间的关系.分析结果表明设备状态跳变事件与...     

Impact of clean air action on PM2.5 pollution in China

<正>China suffers from severe air pollution in the past decades,characterized by high-levels of fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5)) concentrations. To mitigate PM_(2.5) pollution, the Chinese government issued the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (referred to as the Clean Air Action hereinafter) in 2013, which requires the three key regions,     

中国清洁空气行动对PM2.5污染的影响

随着经济快速发展,中国近十年来大气污染事件频发,严重危害居民公共健康.为应对严重的大气污染问题,切实改善空气质量,国务院于2013年颁布了《大气污染防治行动计划》(简称《大气十条》)(国务院, 2013),要求到2017年全国地级及以上城市可吸入颗粒物(PM10)年均浓度比2012年下降10%以上,优良天数逐年提高。     

Conversion relationships between environmental quality criteria of water/air and soil

The conversion study on the environmental quality criteria between water/air and soil is the need to carry out research on soil-environmental quality standards in an all-round way, and also the demand for solving emerging problems in this field using the system dynamic and the overall view. Carrying out this study is of practical significance and theoretical values in the face of formulation and revision of soil-environmental quality standards in China. Firstly, the theoretical basis and relative models of soil-water and soil-air systems were expounded, respectively. And on this basis, a preliminary conceptual model about the conversion was constructed. After that, the current worldwide environmental quality criteria/standards for soil, water and air media were introduced based on their types, concerned pollutants and hierarchical classification, and their variation were also analyzed briefly. Particularlly, the key points for the conversion of environmental quality criteria between soil and water and/or between soil and air were discussed, respectively, while combined with the relative researching results. Finally, this conversion study was commented and prospected.     

江苏地区地磁Z21测值空间相关异常及其标志体系

应用江苏地磁台网Z分量21点观测值,初步研究了其空间相关性及与江苏地区地震的对应关系,发现在研究的12年内,共出现了符合判据标准的异常8次,其中在其后7个月内检报对5个MS50以上地震,而其间应报地震6个,虚报1次,漏报1次。     

Corresponding relationships between nodes of decomposition tree of wavelet packet and frequency bands of signal subspace

Mallat decomposition algorithm of wavelet packet transform can divide broader band into narrower ones with equal bandwidth and no overlapping each other. However, order by size of frequency within signal subspace is not in accordance with that of node label of decomposition tree. Therefore, it is not easy to determine frequency range of reconstructed signal from each node. In this paper, by analyzing the relationship between Mallat decomposition algorithm of wavelet packet transform and decomposition filter and setting operation rule of binary conversion of band labels into node labels, we find the corresponding relationships between nodes of decomposition tree and frequency bands of signal subspace. Then, the conclusion is verified by analog signals. Also, it shows that the ar- ranged rule of bands of signal subspace summarized in the paper is correct.     

小波包分解树结点与信号子空间频带的对应关系及其应用

小波包变换的Mallat分解算法可以把较宽的信号频带划分成相等带宽且互不重叠的窄频带,但由于信号子空间频带的频率大小并非按照分解树结点（node）编号的大小顺序排列,各个结点重构信号的频率范围不易判定. 本文通过分析小波包变换的Mallat分解算法与分解滤波器的关系,设定频带编号与结点编号间进行二进制转化的运算规则,得到了小波包分解树结点与信号子空间频带的对应关系,然后通过模拟信号进行了验证. 结果表明,本文给出的小波包信号子空间频带的排列规则是正确的.      

Time series analysis and forecasting for air pollution in small urban area: an SARIMA and factor analysis approach

Despite the existing public and government measures for monitoring and control of air quality in Bulgaria, in many regions, including typical and most numerous small towns, air quality is not satisfactory. In this paper, factor analysis and Box–Jenkins methodology are applied to examine concentrations of primary air pollutants such as NO, NO₂, NO_x, PM10, SO₂ and ground level O₃ in the town of Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria within a 1 year period from 1st September 2011 to 31st August 2012, based on hourly measurements. By using factor analysis with PCA and Promax rotation, a high multicollinearity between the six pollutants has been detected. The pollutants were grouped in three factors and the degree of contribution of the factors to the overall pollution was determined. This was interpreted as the presence of common sources of pollution. The main part of the study involves the performance of time series analysis and the development of univariate stochastic seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with recording on a hourly basis as seasonality. The study also incorporates the Yeo–Johnson power transformation for variance stabilizing of the data and model selection by using Bayersian information criterion. The obtained SARIMA models demonstrated very good fitting performance with regard to the observed air pollutants and short-term predictions for 72 h ahead, in particular in the case of ozone and particulate matter PM10. The presented statistical approaches allow the building of non-complex models, effective for short-term air pollution forecasting and useful for advance warning purposes in urban areas.     

b值空间扫描图象场源关系初探

讨论了云南地区６．７级以上强震第Ⅲ,Ⅳ活跃期和平静期间地震前一年的ｂ值空间扫描图象,发现在强震频繁发生的云南地区,当某一个异常区发生强震时,与此同时出现的其他异常区的若干年后仍可能发生强震,这些相对于已发生的强震为中短期场兆的异常可能为未来强震的中长期源兆。对低ｂ值异常而言,ｂ值较低的异常区发生强震较早,对高ｂ值异常则动态变化的异常区发生强震较早,异常幅度和异常区大小相对稳定的异常区发生强震较晚。     

Evaluation and potential improvements of WRF/CMAQ in simulating multi-levels air pollution in megacity Shanghai,China

The accuracy of atmospheric numerical model is important for the prediction of urban air pollution. This study investigated and quantified the uncertainties of meteorological and air quality model during multi-levels air pollution periods. We simulated the air quality of megacity Shanghai, China with WRF/CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecasting model and Community Multiscale Air Quality model) at both non-pollution and heavy-pollution episodes in 2012. The weather prediction model failed to reproduce the surface temperature and wind speed in condition of high aerosol loading. The accuracy of the air quality model showed a clear dropping tendency from good air quality conditions to heavily polluted episodes. The absolute model bias increased significantly from light air pollution to heavy air pollution for SO₂ (from 2 to 14%) and for PM₁₀ (from 1 to 33%) in both urban and suburban sites, for CO in urban sites (from 8 to 48%) and for NO₂ in suburban sites (from 1 to 58%). A test of applying the Urban Canopy Model scheme to the WRF model showed fairly good improvement on predicting the meteorology field, but less significant effect on the air pollutants (6% for SO₂ and 19% for NO₂ decease in model bias found only in urban sites). This study gave clear evidence to the sensitivities of the model performance on the air pollution levels. It is suggested to consider this impact as a source for model bias in the model assessment and make improvement in the model development in the future.     

中国空间天气研究进展

空间天气指太阳、行星际空间和地球空间(地球磁层、电离层、热层和中高层大气)的状态及其变化,它能够影响到天基和地基技术系统的运行和可靠性,危及人类的生存.空间天气计划包括观测和资料分析,研究和数值建模,预报和服务.本文评述了近十年来我国空间天气研究中的一些重要成果.     

Monitoring air pollution in China from geostationary satellite: A synthetic study using simulated observations

We simulated geostationary satellite observations to assess the potential for high spatial-and temporal-resolution monitoring of air pollution in China with a focus on tropospheric ozone(O_3), nitrogen dioxide(NO_2), sulfur dioxide(SO_2), and formaldehyde(HCHO). Based on the capabilities and parameters of the payloads onboard sun-synchronous satellites, we simulated the observed spectrum based on a radiative transfer model using a geostationary satellite model. According to optimal estimation theory, we analyzed the sensitivities and retrieval uncertainties of the main parameters of the instrument for the target trace gases. Considering the retrieval error requirements of each trace gas, we determined the major instrument parameter values(e.g., observation channel, spectral resolution, and signal-to-noise ratio). To evaluate these values, retrieval simulation was performed based on the three-dimensional distribution of the atmospheric components over China using an atmospheric chemical transportation model. As many as 90% of the experiments met the retrieval requirements for all target gases. The retrieval precision of total-column and stratospheric O_3 was 2%. In addition, effective retrieval of all trace gases could be achieved at solar zenith angles larger than 70°. Therefore, the geostationary satellite observation and instrument parameters provided herein can be used in air pollution monitoring in China. This study offers a theoretical basis and simulation tool for improving the design of instruments onboard geostationary satellites.     

Preliminary analysis on the relationships between Tibetan Plateau NDVI change and its surface heat source and precipitation of China

Using the automatic weather station data obtained from the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the normalized dif- ference vegetation index and the monthly precipitation data of China and by the methods of correlation and composite analysis, preliminary analytical results are achieved concerning the relationships be- tween TP NDVI change and its surface heat source and precipitation of China. The results of our re- search may lead to the following conclusions: (1) A positive correlation relationship exists between TP NDVI change and its surface heat source, including the sensible heat and the latent heat. As to the correlation of the former, it is more remarkable in western TP than in eastern TP, and as to the correla- tion of the latter, however it turns out contrary. (2) With the improvement of TP vegetation, its surface heat source of every season is also mainly reinforced, especially in summer. As to the contribution of the sensible heat and the latent heat to the increment of the TP surface heat source intensity, the for- mer is comparatively more significant than the latter in winter and spring, while in summer and autumn, the two have almost the same importance. (3) The correlation coefficient between summer NDVI over TP and the corresponding period precipitation of China displays a belt distribution of " ? " from south to north China. (4) Anomalous surface heating field over TP derived from vegetation change is probably an important factor to affect summer precipitation of China.     

Preliminary analysis on the relationships between Tibetan Plateau NDVI change and its surface heat source and precipitation of China

The tectonic-sedimentary cycles and environmental evolution in Southwest Monsoon area since 2.78 Ma were reconstructed, based on the analyses of lithology, grain size, carbonate content, loss-on-ignition (LOI) and pollen in a 737.72 m sediment core from the Heqing Basin, China. The results indicated that the lake basin was formed in about 2.78 Ma. Continuous lacustrine sediment was preserved since 2.65 Ma. Three stages of tectonic-sedimentary cycle were revealed, which were 2.78–1.55, 1.55–0.99 and 0.99–0 Ma. The environmental evolution in Heqing area was influenced by uplift of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, the resulting variation of Southwest Monsoon and the earth orbital-scale periodicity. Supported by the Key Projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40331003 and 40625007)     

大气污染对北京冬季城市和郊区辐射收支影响的观测分析

近年来城市化和大气污染对辐射收支的影响日益显著.本研究利用2013-2014年中国科学院大气物理研究所325m铁塔、南郊观象台、密云气象塔、上甸子区域大气本底站四个观测站点的辐射及自动站气象要素数据,采用南郊观象台的能见度资料将观测数据分为清洁天和污染天,并进行类比分析,以1月份为例,研究了北京地区大气污染和城郊差异对辐射收支的影响.结果表明：（1）从月平均值来看,各站污染天入射短波辐射均小于清洁天,衰减最大可达55.8 W·m-2,直接辐射亦然,衰减最大可达161.1 W·m-2,散射辐射相反,增加最大值为72.2 W·m-2;长波辐射污染天大于清洁天,向下向上长波辐射增加最大值分别为85.0 W·m2和70.0 W·m-2,且长波辐射的衰减与污染物浓度和大气温度相关;净辐射白天污染天小于清洁天,夜间相反.（2）从各站的对比可知,大气污染对入射短波辐射的衰减,南部郊区（13.2%）大于北部城区（7.4%）,与北京地区“南北两重天”的污染物分布特征一致;且污染物对长短波辐射的影响呈现了从城区到郊区衰减率依次减小的现象.本研究为大气污染与气象条件的相互作用研究提供了观测基础.     

Nonstationary extreme value analysis of temperature extremes in China

In a changing climate, the common assumption of stationarity of climate extremes has been increasingly challenged, raising the need to incorporate non-stationarity in extreme value modeling. In this study, quantile regression is used to identify the trends of annual temperature extremes and their correlations with two large climate patterns, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) at 357 stations in China. Statistical significant positive trends and correlations between warm (or cold) temperature extremes and WPSH (or AO) have been detected at most stations. The influence of WPSH on warm extremes is significant in southern China, while the AO mainly affects the cold extremes in northern and eastern China. Then, annual temperature extremes are fitted to generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions with time-varying parameters. The summer (or winter) mean daily maximum (or minimum) temperatures and two climate indices, the WPSH index and the AO index, are chosen as covariates. In total, 16 candidate GEV distribution models are constructed, and the best fitting model with the lowest Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is selected. The 20-year return levels of annual warm (or cold) extremes in the period 1961–1980 and 1991–2010 are computed and compared. The changes of 20-year return levels of annual warm and cold extremes are jointly determined by trend and distributional changes of annual temperature extremes. Analysis of large scale atmospheric circulation changes indicate that a strengthening anticyclonic circulation and increasing geopotential height in recent decades may have contributed to the changes in temperature extremes in China.     

A distributed monthly hydrological model for integrating spatial variations of basin topography and rainfall

Hydrological models at a monthly time‐scale are important tools for hydrological analysis, such as in impact assessment of climate change and regional water resources planning. Traditionally, monthly models adopt a conceptual, lumped‐parameter approach and cannot account for spatial variations of basin characteristics and climatic inputs. A large requirement for data often severely limits the utility of physically based, distributed‐parameter models. Based on the variable‐source‐area concept, we considered basin topography and rainfall to be two major factors whose spatial variations play a dominant role in runoff generation and developed a monthly model that is able to account for their influences in the spatial and temporal dynamics of water balance. As a hybrid of the Xinanjiang model and TOPMODEL, the new model is constructed by innovatively making use of the highly acclaimed simulation techniques in the two existing models. A major contribution of this model development study is to adopt the technique of implicit representation of soil moisture characteristics in the Xinanjiang model and use the TOPMODEL concept to integrate terrain variations into runoff simulation. Specifically, the TOPMODEL topographic index ln(a/tanβ) is converted into an index of relative difficulty in runoff generation (IRDG) and then the cumulative frequency distribution of IRDG is used to substitute the parabolic curve, which represents the spatial variation of soil storage capacity in the Xinanjiang model. Digital elevation model data play a key role in the modelling procedures on a geographical information system platform, including basin segmentation, estimation of rainfall for each sub‐basin and computation of terrain characteristics. Other monthly data for model calibration and validation are rainfall, pan evaporation and runoff. The new model has only three parameters to be estimated, i.e. watershed‐average field capacity WM, pan coefficient η and runoff generation coefficient α. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that runoff is least sensitive to WM and, therefore, it can be determined by a prior estimation based on the climate and soil properties of the study basin. The other two parameters can be determined using optimization methods. Model testing was carried out in a number of nested sub‐basins of two watersheds (Yuanjiang River and Dongjiang River) in the humid region in central and southern China. Simulation results show that the model is capable of describing spatial and temporal variations of water balance components, including soil moisture content, evapotranspiration and runoff, over the watershed. With a minimal requirement for input data and parameterization, this terrain‐based distributed model is a valuable contribution to the ever‐advancing technology of hydrological modelling. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Economic growth and pollutant emissions in China: a spatial econometric analysis

This paper studies the emissions of SO₂ and COD in China using fine-scale, countylevel data. Using a widely used spatial autocorrelation index, Moran’s I statistics, we first estimate the spatial autocorrelations of SO₂ and COD emissions. Distinct patterns of spatial concentration are identified. To investigate the driving forces of emissions, we then use spatial econometric models, including a spatial error model (SEM) and a spatial lag model (SLM), to evaluate the effects of variables that reflect level of economic development, population density, and industrial structure. Our results show that these explanatory variables are highly correlated with the level of SO₂ and COD emissions, though their impacts on SO₂ and COD vary. Compared to ordinary least square regression, the advantages of SLM and SEM are demonstrated as they effectively reveal the existence and significance of spatial dependence. The SEM, in particular, is chosen over the SLM as the role of spatial correlation is stronger in the error model than in the lag model. Based on the research results, we present some preliminary policy recommendations, especially for those high–high cluster regions that face significant environmental degradation and challenge.     

Relation between the monthly sums of sunshine and global radiation

Summary The statistical treatment of the dependence of monthly sums of global radiation on the monthly sums of sunshine at the stations of Hradec Králové, Bratislava — Koliba and Hurbanovo is presented. The parameters of linear and quadratic regression are derived for the said stations and for the individual months of the year. Drawing on the statistical analysis of the initial data sets, the accuracy and reliability of the mentioned regression relations are critically evaluated.