太阳辐射和地面气象要素的日环食效应

本文通过对1987年9月23日日环食期间太阳辐射和地面气象要素等实测资料的分析,指出了在日环食过程中太阳辐射和地面气象要素等的变化,也叙述了日食期间地面臭氧含量的变化;第一次在国内测得了由日食引起的大气重力波,进而讨论了大气重力波的若干特性.     

太阳辐射和地面气象要素的日环食效应

本文通过对1987年9月23日日环食期间太阳辐射和地面气象要素等实测资料的分析,指出了在日环食过程中太阳辐射和地面气象要素等的变化,也叙述了日食期间地面臭氧含量的变化;第一次在国内测得了由日食引起的大气重力波,进而讨论了大气重力波的若干特性.     

上海近50年气温变化与城市化发展的关系

根据上海地区2个气象站近50年的年均气温数据,采用回归分析、滑动平均和Mann\|Kendall检验法研究上海地区气温的年代际变化与跃变,城郊温差的年际变化;采用趋势拟合与相关分析,研究城郊温差与城市人口、GDP、能源消耗量、建成区面积和住宅竣工面积等各项城市发展指标的关系.结果表明：（1）近50年来,上海地区年均气温缓慢上升,20世纪90年代后城郊温差呈锯齿状上升趋势,若以徐家汇代表城区,奉贤代表郊区,则近50年来,城郊温差增温率为0.23℃/10a.（2）1989~1990年为上海城区气温的跃变年份,而郊区的气温跃变出现在20世纪90年代中期.（3）各项城市发展指标均与上海城郊温差有着显著的相关性,表明它们与上海城市热岛的发展关系密切,其中,住宅建设是上海城市热岛最主要的驱动因素,城市人口和经济发展也具有重要影响.     

城市化对四川盆地夏季气温变化影响的观测和模拟研究

城市化引起的气温上升是土地覆盖变化影响区域气候的重要体现.本文采用"观测资料减去再分析"（Observation Minus Reanalysis,OMR）的方法估计四川盆地和周边地区下垫面城市化改变对夏季地面2 m气温变化趋势的影响.设计了不同城市化下垫面扩展变化的WRF模拟试验,对1998—2012年四川盆地及周边区域夏季逐日平均温度和日最高最低气温进行模拟.在检验模式模拟性能的基础上,利用OMR方法类似的思路定量探讨城市化下垫面对地面气温变化趋势的可能影响.结果显示,（1）基于站点观测资料的OMR分布表明成都、重庆地区的城市下垫面对夏季升温的影响可达0.1℃·a-1;（2）WRF试验模拟的结果与实际观测接近,能较合理刻画出该地区夏季温度的平均分布及时间变化特征,可以用于该地区城市化区域气候效应的研究;（3）不同城市化进程的模式模拟试验中气温变化趋势的差值与基于站点观测的OMR方法计算得到的结果类似,都证明了重庆和成都的城市下垫面对地面2 m温度的升高具有显著影响,其中在日内低温的表现尤为突出.     

城市化对北京气象站极端气温指数趋势变化的影响

利用5个乡村气象站和北京气象站(简称北京站)1960~2008年日最高、最低气温资料,比较分析了北京地区城市和乡村极端气温指数年、季节的时间变化以及城市化对北京站各极端气温指数趋势变化的影响.结果表明:1960~2008年北京站霜冻日数、冷夜日数、冷昼日数和平均日较差均显著减少,暖夜日数、暖昼日数、平均最高气温和平均最低气温均显著上升,这些指数的趋势变化全部通过了0.01显著性水平检验,其中霜冻日数、冷夜日数、暖夜日数、平均最低气温、平均气温日较差等与最低气温有关的极端气温指数比冷昼日数、暖昼日数、平均最高气温等基于最高气温记录的极端气温指数变化趋势更明显;城市化因素已致使北京站1960~2008年期间霜冻日数、冷夜日数和平均气温日较差显著减少,暖夜日数和平均最低气温显著增加,这些与最低气温有关的极端气温指数序列,其城市化影响都通过了0.01显著性水平检验.在北京站的霜冻日数、冷夜日数和平均气温日较差长期减少趋势中,城市化影响分别达到-5.78 d/10a、-17.83 d/10a和-0.73 ℃/10a,而在北京站暖夜日数和平均最低气温增加趋势中,城市化影响分别为14.76 d/10a和0.70 ℃/10a.在所有与最低气温有关的年平均极端气温指数的趋势变化中,城市化影响贡献率均达到100%,即观测到的趋势变化完全是由城市化因素造成的.城市化致使四季北京站冷夜日数、平均气温日较差均显著减少,暖夜日数、平均最低气温均显著增加,其中平均最低气温和平均气温日较差序列中的城市化影响在冬季最大,暖夜日数序列中的城市化影响在夏季最显著.     

近50年来环境变化对巢湖硅藻组合演替的影响

湖泊生态系统往往受营养、水文和气候等诸多环境因子的影响.区分不同环境因子的影响是揭示湖泊生态环境演化机制的关键.本文基于巢湖岩芯210Pb和137Cs测年、硅藻、地球化学指标和粒度分析结果以及流域水文、气候、人口和农业资料,利用冗余分析,定量区分1950年来营养、水文和气侯对硅藻组合演替的影响.1978年前硅藻组合中A...     

基于空间观测差异的地面气温资料质量控制算法研究

本文提出一种基于空间观测差异的地面气温资料质量控制算法（SDF算法）.SDF算法在分析目标区域内不同观测站空间观测差异的基础上,通过引入观测差异曲面函数构造质量控制方程.同时,为权衡质量控制中的两类统计错误,提出均方根检错率概念（MSR）,结合均方根误差（RMSE）、平均绝对误差（MAE）和纳什效率系数（NSC）共同检测SDF算法的有效性.利用SDF算法对国家气象中心提供的14个地面观测站2005-2014年02：00、08：00、14：00、20：00定时气温观测资料进行质量控制分析,并与反距离加权法（IDW）和空间回归检测法（SRT）进行对比.试验结果表明：通过多组独立测试,SDF算法的质量控制效果均优于IDW算法和SRT算法,具有稳定性高、适应性强的特点,但三种方法均受观测台站密集度和地形地貌影响.

     

火星电离层电子密度对太阳辐射变化的响应

太阳辐射是火星电离层变化的重要控制因素.利用火星全球勘探者号(Mars Global Surveyor,MGS)电离层掩星探测数据,并结合一个火星电离层总电子含量(Total Electron Content,TEC)经验模型,研究了火星北半球高纬地区电离层电子密度对太阳辐射变化的响应特性.在考虑了火星掩星数据中电离层电子密度对太阳天顶角的依赖关系后,发现随着太阳辐射增强,火星电离层M₂层峰值密度增大,但增长偏离线性趋势,而M₂层峰值高度和大气标高没有很明显的变化趋势.从100~200 km高度区域掩星电子密度剖面积分得到的TEC及底部和顶部TEC也随太阳辐射增大而增大,但增长率有所减小,表明火星电离层可能存在类似地球电离层的饱和特征.MGS掩星TEC及其底部和顶部剖面的TEC与经验模型TEC的比值均与太阳辐射强度变化呈反相关特性,表明在强太阳辐射情形下200 km以上电子含量在TEC中占比增大.这一特性意味着太阳活动增强,在火星顶部电离层区域,动力学过程对电离层的控制逐渐超过光化学过程.

     

短中时间尺度上的气温变化和太阳辐射之间的关系研究

探讨气温变化的时空特征及其产生原因越来越成为当代大气科学关注的焦点.过去的大多研究揭示了长时间尺度上的气候变化受太阳辐射的影响情况.本文采用经验模态分解的方法,通过识别气温和太阳黑子变化中的特征时间尺度,分析了短中时间尺度上南京市与石家庄市气温和太阳辐射之间的关系,得到了吻合以前实证结果的太阳黑子11a的准周期成分等,在气温变化中也找到了相似于太阳黑子5.5和11a的准周期成分,但是相关性分析及检验某一模态信号是否为随机信号的验证分析同时说明相似周期成分之间并不相关.在95%的置信度下,南京市和石家庄市气温变化中确实存在不少短周期波动,它们和太阳辐射之间并不存在直接的相关关系,而且南京市气温3.1a的中周期波动也吻合前人的研究成果.     

天山中东段中强地震与地面气温的关系研究

通过对中国国家级地面气象站的每日最低地面气温数据进行预处理,应用K值偏移指数方法对去除研究区域多年背景信息及历史地震影响的地面气温数据进行异常特征提取,获得天山中东段每日地面气温特征变化信息,构建该区域2015-2017年的每日地面气温特征信息库,研究其时空变化规律,并进行回溯性地震检验,得到地面气温高值异常时段的有震对应概率,以及中强以上地震前后的地面气温变化规律.本研究对新疆地区的地震预测具有一定的参考意义.     

太湖水面太阳辐射中的光合有效成份

本文利用睛空大气辐射传输分光参数化模式,讨论了到达太湖水面太阳总辐射中光合有效成分所占比例的日变化状况。辐射传输计算所涉及的气象参数采用无锡地区气象站资料;水体反射仅考虑有风浪状况下的水平Fresnel反射。两次湖面实测太阳总辐射日变化曲线与计算值对比分析表明,计算结果基本上能反映晴空条件下太湖水面辐射状况。本文结果对利用总辐射值估算水体生态研究中感兴趣的光合有效成份有一定参考价值。     

Effects of precipitation and landuse on runoff during the past 50 years in a typical watershed in the Loess Plateau, China

In the past century, great progress has been made worldwide in our understanding of forest-water relationship. The successful forestation programs implemented in China-which have improved the ecological environmental conditions-have gained the attention of many researchers and highlighted the relationship between forestation and water yields. The arid and semi-arid Loess Plateau has received attention from water engineers and eco-hydrological researchers in China because of a shortage in water resources. We selected one of the oldest stations conducting soil and water conservation experiments, the Xifeng soil and water conservation station, and chose the Nanxiaohe catchment and its paired catchments （Yangjiagou catchment and Dongzhuanggou catchment） as our research areas. Trends in precipitation, air temperature, streamflow over the past 50 years, and the effect of changing land use on streamflow were analyzed. The Mann-Kendall test showed that precipitation had a negative trend （downward trend）, whereas air temperature showed a positive trend （upward trend） from the past to present in the Nanxiaohe catchment. However, the trends seen in precipitation, air temperature did not contain any ＂jumping points.＂ The paired catchment approach is used to detect the effects of land cover change on hydrology in the Yangjiagou and the contrast catchment, i.e., Dongzhuanggou catchment in our study. The results showed a large change in land use in the Yangjiagou catchment from 1954 to 2008. An increase in forested land （from 0% to 40.08% from 1954 to 2008） and a reduction of bare land （from 51.26% to 5.50% from 1954 to 2008） accounted for a large part of the change in land use. However, the land use changed little in the contrast catchment. The comparison of streamfiow in the paired catchments showed that forestation reduced streamflow by 49.63% （or 6.5 mm） each year.     

Near‐surface temperatures and heat balance of bare outcrops exposed to solar radiation

Subsurface temperatures in rocks naturally fluctuate under the influence of local meteorological conditions. These fluctuations play a role in mechanical weathering, thus creating the environmental conditions conducive to natural hazards such as rockfalls and providing important sediment source terms for landscape evolution. However, the physics that control heat penetration into rocks are not fully understood, which makes the underground thermal state difficult to interpret when temperature measurements are available and even more difficult to estimate for unmonitored sites. This is an important lacuna given possible impacts of future climate change on mechanical weathering processes. The natural daily variations of subsurface temperatures were investigated on a bare gneiss outcrop exposed to solar radiation, where temperatures at various depths (up to 50 cm), as well as the solar radiation reaching a pyranometer, were monitored hourly for several months. This detailed times series of thermal data was used to gain insight into the heat balance at the inclined free surface of the rock mass. Attention was focused on two major contributors to the heat balance; the heat flux entering the rock mass through conduction and the incoming shortwave (solar) radiation. A Fourier decomposition of the temperature measurements provided an estimate of the in situ thermal conductivity of the rock and was used to calculate the conductive term. The shortwave radiation term was determined on the basis of the pyranometer measurements adjusted to account for the angle of incidence of the sun. It is shown that, throughout clear‐sky periods, heat exchanges at the surface are mainly controlled by direct solar radiation during the day, and by a roughly constant outgoing heat flux during the night. Subsurface temperatures can be reliably estimated with a semi‐infinite medium model whose boundary condition is derived from an analytical insolation model that takes atmospheric attenuation into account. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regional long-term trend of ground solar radiation in China over the past 50 years

Based on global solar radiation and related meteorological data from 57 stations in China between 1961 and 2009, we analyze the variation of surface global solar radiation (G) and its relationship to meteorological elements using linear-trend estimation, wavelet analysis, and the Mann-Kendall test. The results show that of the 33 stations with time series longer than 45 years, G is significant at the 95% confidence level. G has a decreasing trend at many stations, but results vary across different areas. The decadal departure percentage of G increased from the 1960s to 1970s, declined gradually after the 1970s, and decreased significantly in the 1980s. In the 1990s, the trend at a few sites slightly increased. The trend of cumulative variance is of four types, i.e. rise-fall, rise-fall-slight rise, rise-fall-rise, and not obvious. For changes within a year, the most obvious decline was in winter, and the rest of the year had a slight decrease. The major cycles of annual G were 6-9, 10-13, and 29-33 a. The inflection points were mostly in the 1970s. The reasons for greater changes were complex. Relevant meteorological elements were selected and analyzed by statistical methods. Trends in climatic parameters, such as annual average percentage of sunshine, annual average wind speed, and annual average of low cloud cover, were closely related to G. Thus, this indicated the potential causes of the observed trends in G. The long-term trend for annual G in some regions was also influenced by anthro- pogenic activities. Annual average percentage of sunshine and annual average wind speed were positively correlated with annual G, respectively.     

Impacts of temperature on rice yields of different rice cultivation systems in southern China over the past 40 years

The impact of climate change on rice yield in China remains highly uncertain. We examined the impact of the change of maximum temperature (T_max) and minimum temperature (T_min) on rice yields in southern China from 1967 to 2007. The rice yields were simulated by using the DSSAT3.5 (Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer)-Rice model. The change of T_max and T_min in rice growing seasons and simulated rice yields as well as their correlations were analyzed. The simulated yields of middle rice and early rice had a decreasing trend, but late rice yields showed a weak rise trend. There was significant negative correlation between T_max and the early rice yields, as well as the late rice yields in most stations, but non-significant negative correlation for the middle rice yields. An obviously negative relationship was found between T_min and the early and middle rice yields, and a significant positive relationship was found between T_min and the late rice yields. It indicated that under the recent climate warming, the increased T_max brought strong negative impacts on early rice yields and late rice yields, but a weak negative impact on the middle rice yields; the increased T_min had a strong negative impact on the middle rice yields and the early rice yields, but a significant positive impact on the late rice yields. It suggested that it is necessary to adjust rice planting date and adapt to higher T_min.     

An experiment on temperature variations in sandstone during biaxial loading

The temperature response to stress–strain variations in rock is useful in developing an understanding of the thermodynamic property of crust. In this study, the temperature of sandstone during loading was investigated using laboratory biaxial testing. By changing the loading patterns, the deformation of a specimen was controlled to produce two distinct modes of strain: volume strain only and shear strain only. These strain modes were produced separately such that the temperature variation associated with the different deformation modes could be analysed. Experimental results indicate that temperature, as a scalar quantity, is notably sensitive to rock deformation. In the case of the volume strain, the temperature variation is positively correlated with the variation in the bulk stress. The temperature rises with the increase in hydrostatic pressure, and vice versa. In the case of the shear strain, experimental results repeatedly show two characteristics: firstly, there appears obvious increase in temperature in the area of pure shear strain, which is most likely related to local plastic deformation; secondly, the temperature drops in the area of tension during loading, whereas the temperature rises within the area of compression. This is to say, the state of crustal stress–strain should be obtained through the measurement of rock temperature.     

Analysis of long-term variations of fog and haze in China in recent 50 years and their relations with atmospheric humidity

Our analysis of fog and haze observations from the surface weather stations in China in recent 50 years(from 1961 to 2011)shows that the number of fog days has experienced two-stage variations,with an increasing trend before 1980 and a decreasing trend after 1990.Especially,an obvious decreasing trend after 1990 can be clearly seen,which is consistent with the decreasing trend of the surface relative humidity.However,the number of haze days has demonstrated an increasing trend.As such,the role of reduction of atmospheric relative humidity in the transition process from fog into haze has been further investigated.It is estimated that the mean relative humidity of haze days is about 69%,lower than previously estimated,which implies that it is more difficult for the haze particles to transform into fog drops.This is possibly one of the major environmental factors leading to the reduction of number of fog days.The threshold of the relative humidity for transition from fog into haze is about82%,also lower than previously estimated.Thus,the reduction of the surface relative humidity in China mainly due to the increase of the surface temperature and the saturation specific humidity may exert an obvious impact on the environmental conditions for the formations of fog and haze.In addition,our investigation of the relationship between haze and visibility reveals that with the increase of haze days,the visibility has declined markedly.Since 1961,the mean visibility has dropped from 4–10to 2–4 km,about a half of the previous horizontal distance of visibility.     

Exploring the dynamics of agricultural climatic resource utilization of spring maize over the past 50 years in Northeast China

Exploring the dynamics of the utilization of agricultural climatic resources (i.e., environmental factors that affect crop productivity such as light, temperature, and water) can provide a theoretical basis for modifying agricultural practices and distributions of agricultural production in the future. Northeast China is one of the major agricultural production areas in China and also an obvious region of climatic warming. We were motivated to analyze the utilization dynamics of agricultural climatic resource during spring maize cultivation from 1961 to 2010 in Northeast China. To understand these dynamics, we used the daily data from 101 meteorological stations in Northeast China between 1961 and 2010. The demands on agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China imposed by the cultivation of spring maize were combined and agricultural climatic suitability theory was applied. The growth period of spring maize was further detailedly divided into four stages: germination to emergence, emergence to jointing, jointing to tasseling, and tasseling to maturity. The average resource utilization index was established to evaluate the effects. Over the past five decades, Northeast China experienced increases in daily average temperature of 0.246 °C every decade during the growing season (May–September). At the same time, strong fluctuating decreases were observed in average total precipitation of 8.936 mm every decade and an average sunshine hour of 0.122 h every decade. Significant temporal and spatial changes occurred in K from 1961 to 2010. The K showed decreasing trends in Liaoning province and increasing trends in Jilin and especially in Heilongjiang province, which increased by 0.11. Spatial differences were visible in different periods, and the most obvious increase was found in the period 2001–2010. The areas with high values of K shifted northeastward over the past 50 years, indicating more efficient use of agricultural climatic resources in Northeast China.