Water resource impacts of climate change in southwestern Bulgaria

This study assesses the regional impact of climate change on runoff in a mountainous region of southwestern Bulgaria. A GIS-based distributed hydrologic model and two climate change scenarios – HadCM2 and CCC – were employed for years around 2025 and 2085. Results from both scenarios demonstrate the basin's sensitivity of runoff to climate change, which produce significant spatial and temporal changes in the basin's water yield with maximum runoff shift into early spring and further decreases in summer runoff. There could be no reduction in mean annual runoff, except under the Hadley scenario by 2085. Changes in the magnitude of mean monthly and peak flow are associated with early snowmelt and a reduction in snow cover in spring. Increases in spatial variability of runoff reflect the basin's complex physiographic characteristics. The increase of spatial and temporal variability in runoff points to different strategies for future water resource management. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Wind profiles in the boundary layer over Kharagpur associated with synoptic scale systems

Doppler sodar wind data for the boundary layer over Kharagpur obtained during MONTBLEX-1990 at a height interval of 30 m from surface up to 1500 m have been analysed for the periods when intense synoptic scale disturbances from north Bay of Bengal moved along the eastern end of the monsoon trough. The variation in the vertical wind profile in the lower boundary layer over Kharagpur during the passage of synoptic scale disturbances has been discussed in the paper. The analysis indicates that the mean winds over Kharagpur veered with height in the lower boundary layer near the surface suggesting divergence over Kharagpur when the system lay south/southwest of the station. No such veering has been noticed when the centre of the system lay very close to the station.     

基于CI指数和K指数的近40a贵州安顺区域干旱演变特征

利用综合气象干旱指数(CI指数)和K干旱指数, 对贵州安顺地区1971-2011年41 a来气象干旱的时空分布状况、演变特征及突变情况进行了比较分析. 结果表明: 对严重的干旱时段, 两种指数均能表现出来, 对历年干旱过程及灾害的评定结果基本一致;CI指数对干旱的评定更为精细, 但K指数延续性更好;分季节的干旱分析中, 两种指数对于夏季出现干旱概率较小的结论一致, 对各季节平均干旱长度的评判基本一致. 对时间演变的线性变化趋势以及M-K检验结果对比分析表明, 春季和秋季干旱强度增强、夏季干旱强度减弱、年度平均干旱长度及春、秋季干旱长度增加的这几个趋势, 两种方法两种指数结果一致, 结论被认为是可信度较高的. M-K曲线检测表明: 年度干旱长度在2008年后为增加的趋势, 20世纪90年代以来春季干旱强度增强, 20世纪末以来夏季干旱强度趋于减轻, 秋季干旱强度增强, 1970年代中期后春季干旱长度有增加的趋势, 秋季干旱长度在20世纪80年代中期到90年代后增加的趋势可能发生了突变. 年度干旱强度存在12~14 a的长周期和年度干旱长度4~6a的短周期较为可信.     

Rural diversification in Bulgaria

Agriculture has always been very important for the Bulgarian economy, but during the socialist period there was considerable progress made in the diversification of employment opportunities in rural areas. While many people commuted to non-agricultural jobs in the townships (and there was a large permanent transfer from rural to urban areas), there were additional opportunities in small factories and local services in the villages themselves. The transition has seen these opportunities much reduced, at precisely the time when full-time paid work in agriculture has declined due to market restructuring while complex problems have emerged associated with liquidating the state-run cooperatives and establishing a viable alternative. The paper discusses the general issues and presents a case study from the north-central part of the country. The rebuilding of a cooperative farming system (along with other forms of consolidation) is a positive trend which could increase spending power in the villages and help in the growth of employment in rural industries and services. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

自然界水循环中的水量平衡原理与干旱研究

概述了国际、国内干旱研究概况。指出区域多年平均降水量的多少,反映了区域中水资源对生态、经济发展承载力的大小。农业生产中把防止土壤蒸发措施叫抗旱;水利建设中拦河筑坝、引水灌溉、凿井汲水,叫兴修水利抗旱救灾。因此干旱的实质是径流消退、土壤蒸发自然衰减并达到区域内水资源对生态和经济发展的承载能力下降到某一限度或阀值的称谓,如人们感官中的小旱、大旱等。根据径流消退公式和土壤蒸发衰减曲线,参照大风、地震研究方法,输入降水、逐日蒸发观测值,即可成功实现统一干旱标准的实时旱情监测。     

The current ethnic panorama in Bulgaria

Although a constant trickle of outmigrants and several larger waves (mostly to Turkey) are characteristic for the modern history of Bulgaria, its ethnic composition was relatively stable. The ethnic Bulgarians are a clear majority, the largest minority groups being in descending order the Turks, Roma (Gypsies), the Muslim Bulgarians and several much smaller groups. The geographical patterns of distribution have been analysed. Over time, the policies of the Bulgarian state towards the minority groups have been varying between benevolence and restriction measures. The ethnocultural communities have worked out moduses of co-existence preventing the escalation of conflicts at the local level.     

Trace elements in the Goze Delchev coal deposit, Bulgaria

The geochemistry of trace elements in the underground and open-pit mine of the Goze Delchev subbituminous coal deposit have been studied. The coals in both mines are highly enriched in W, Ge and Be, and at less extent in As, Mn and Y as compared with the world-wide Clarkes for subbituminous coals. Ni and Ti are also enhanced in the underground coals, and Zr, Cr and Mo in the open-pit mine coals.Characteristic for the trace element contents in the deposit is a regular variation with depth. The following patterns were distinguished for profile I: a — the element content decreases from the bottom to the top of the bed paralleling ash distribution (Fe, Co, As, Sb, V, Y, Mo, Cs, REE, Hf, Ta, Th, P and Au); b — Ge and W are enriched in the near-bottom and near-top coals; c — in the middle part of the bed the content of K and Rb is maximal, while that of U is slightly enriched; d — Ba content decreases from the top to the bottom of the bed. In profile II, W and Be contents decrease from the bottom to the top. The near-bottom, and especially the near-roof samples of profile IV are highly enriched in Ge, while for W the highest is the content of the near-bottom sample.Ge, Be, As, Mn, Cl and Br are mainly organically associated. The organic affiliation is still strong for Co, B, Sr, Ba, Sb, U, Th, Mo, La, Ce, Sm, Tb and Yb in the underground coals, and Fe, Co, Na, W, Sr, Y and Ag in the coals from the open-pit mine. K, Rb, Ti, Zr, Hf and Ta are of dominant inorganic affinity. The chalcophile and siderophile elements correlate positively with Fe and each other and may be bound partly with pyrite or other sulphides and iron containing minerals.Compared statistically by the t-criteria, the elements Na, Li, Cu, Zn, Pb, Cr, Ni, Co, Mo, Fe and Be are of higher content in the open-pit mine. Tungsten is the only element of higher concentration in the underground mine. The contents of Ge, As, Sr, V, Mn, Y, Zr and P are not statistically different in both mines.It was supposed that there were multiple sources of the trace elements in the deposit. The source of the highly enriched elements (W, Ge, Be, and As) most probably were the thermal waters in the source area. The contemporary mineral springs are of high content of these elements. Another source were the hosting Mesta volcanic rocks, which are enriched in Sb, Mo, Hf, U, Th, As, Li and Rb. Some of the volcanics were hydrothermally altered and enriched or depleted of many elements. Thus, the hydrothermal solutions were also suppliers of elements for the coals. It is obvious that the contents, distribution and paragenesis, of the trace elements in both Goze Delchev coals reflect the geochemical specialization of the source area, including rocks, paleo- and contemporary thermal waters.     

灌区干旱风险评估模型研究

根据风险理论,建立了包括农业干旱发生概率、抗旱能力、受灾体种植面积比等多因子的灌区农业干旱风险评估模型。并将相对产量作为灌区农业干旱评估指标,能够反映土壤 作物 大气系统中水分运动对农业生产的影响,利用该指标结合干旱风险评估模型对灌区农业干旱进行风险评估,分析出灌区各种作物对干旱风险度影响最大的生育阶段和风险度最高的农作物,以便灌区制定合理的抗旱方案以减小灌区干旱损失。     

基于标准化降水指数的内蒙古地区干旱时空变化特征

利用内蒙古及周边地区70个气象站1951~2014年降水数据,采用标准化降水指数等方法,对内蒙古近64年气候干旱时空变化进行分析。结果表明:研究区近64年来除西部年际、春、秋、冬季,中部春、秋季及东部春、冬季气候趋于湿润外,其他均趋于干旱。中、东部年际、植(作)物生长期SPI在2001年和1990年左右发生突变,东部突变后趋于干旱并在2006年左右又发生明显转折后趋于湿润。西部在1960s干旱严重,中、东部在1990s至2000s干旱严重。西部年际SPI由西北向东南、东部由南向北干旱趋势速率呈阶梯状下降,中部干旱趋势速率较西、东部快;植(作)物生长期SPI空间变化与年际一致,但西、中部干旱趋势明显的区域有所扩大。     

近30年雷州半岛季节性气象干旱时空特征

为进一步分析日尺度有效干旱指数(Effective Drought Index,EDI)的适应性,基于雷州半岛1984~2013年逐日降水资料进行验证,对比EDI和月尺度标准化降水指数(Standardized Precipitation Index,SPI)的干旱识别效果,进而结合线性趋势、M-K趋势检验和空间插值方法 ,分析雷州半岛季节性气象干旱时空特征。结果表明:(1)日尺度EDI和6个月时间尺度SPI(SPI-6)适用于雷州半岛的干旱监测,但EDI对严重干旱和突发干旱的识别比SPI-6更准确;(2)1984~2013年,雷州半岛秋冬季干旱频率和干旱站次比均呈减少趋势,但春夏季干旱频率和干旱站次比略有增加趋势;(3)春旱频率从南向北递增,重旱高频地区位于西北部,而夏季重旱高频区位于西部沿海;秋旱南部重于北部,高频中心在雷中西部沿海和曾家周边;冬季重旱以西部沿海、雷州市和徐闻县交界处频率最高。     

基于CI指数的甘肃省黄土高原地区气象干旱的变化趋势分析

基于甘肃省黄土高原区33个气象站1962-2010年气象资料, 利用综合气象干旱指数(CI)对其近50 a的干旱频率和平均持续时间的空间分布、 干旱强度趋势变化和极端干旱事件频次进行了分析, 此基础上应用基于分型理论的R/S方法对干旱强度未来变化趋势进行了预测. 结果表明: 甘肃省黄土高原区干旱发生频率和多年平均持续天数在兰州-靖远一带和庆阳北部属于高值区, 而岷县、 渭源一带属于低值区; 106° E以西"临洮-通渭-天水"一带和庆阳东南部是干旱变幅最大的地方. 20世纪90年代以来, 干旱强度增大的较快, 四季均呈现出干旱强度变大的趋势, 其中春、 秋季干旱强度加剧的趋势明显, 夏季近10 a都处于非常严重的干旱状态, 但未通过0.01的显著性检验; 20世纪60年代至今, 极端干旱事件发生频次快速增多. 四季干旱强度Hurst指数H 均大于0.5, 同时分维数D 均小于1.5, 因此, 未来一段时间干旱强度仍然保持与过去相一致的变化趋势. 研究结果可为相关部门制定相应抗旱对策提供科学依据.     

Monitoring tectonic movements in the Simitli Graben, SW Bulgaria

Long-term in situ monitoring of slow tectonic movements has been applied to a seismoactive region of SW Bulgaria, within the epicentral zone of one of the strongest earthquakes in Europe (4 April 1904, M=7.8). The region has been found the most seismoactive in Bulgaria being of interest to many scientists. Three spatial extensometers were installed here in carefully selected sites to reflect fault movements on fissures. The extensometer TM-71 used here, enables three-dimensional detecting of even very slow movements with the accuracy of 0.01 mm and high stability over time. After 17 years of measuring, the rates of tectonic movements were established at all three monitoring points. Movements recorded at point B6 located in the seismoactive Kroupnik fault zone are of a relatively high rate. Locally, they show left-lateral strike–slips at rates of ca. 2.7 mm year⁻¹, as well as thrusting with a mean rate of 1.9 mm year⁻¹. Monitoring point K7 located in a fissure of the same zone on a steep slope affected by recent earthquakes has shown an uplift tendency of the block W of the Strouma Fault, with a result of gradual slope subsidence occurring from time to time. Monitoring point K5 located in a fissure of Strouma Fault zone became increasingly active during the last 2 years after 8 years of relative quiescence. Before that, only low left-lateral movements could be observed. Long-term fissure monitoring has shown quite a number of details interpretable to the dynamics of a broad region. Permanent shear displacements were found to develop after earthquakes. It was established that only a certain distinct part of local earthquakes provide such a displacement reaction at the monitoring points showing particular seismic connections.     

青海夏季干旱特征及其预测模型研究

利用1961-2008年青海非干旱区(除柴达木盆地)地面气象观测资料、 74个环流特征量、 海温资料、 北半球500 hPa高度场网格点资料以及500 hPa高度场遥相关, 对夏季干旱的变化趋势和干旱发生的机理进行了研究.结果表明:1961-2008年夏季青海省非干旱区、 东部农业区分别发生干旱15 a、 18 a, 发生干旱的年几率为31.3%、 37.5%; 东部农业区发生干旱的几率较大, 中轻度干旱发生几率大于特大、 重度干旱.夏季典型干旱年500 hPa欧亚中高纬度上空高度距平分布为正距平, 极涡偏弱; 非干旱年蒙古到青藏高原上由负距平控制, 极涡偏强, 偏向东半球, 印缅低压槽十分活跃.当夏季西大西洋型、 上年秋季欧亚纬向环流指数偏弱, 而4月西太平洋型偏强, 8月青藏高原地面加热场强度距平指数偏强, 夏季容易发生干旱; 反之, 当夏季西大西洋型、 上年秋季欧亚纬向环流指数偏强, 而4月西太平洋型偏弱, 8月青藏高原地面加热场强度距平指数偏弱, 则夏季不易发生夏季干旱. 1961-2008年模拟方程的准确率为83.3%, 2009-2010年预测结果与实况接近, 趋势预测准确.     

淮河上游地区干旱评价分析

利用淮河上游6个雨量站1964～2000年日降雨资料和邻近气象站气象资料,分别计算各站逐月Palmer干旱指标和雨量距平指标,并对计算结果进行对比分析.结果表明:淮河上游地区旱涝程度具有较强的持续性,夏季干旱多发,不过干旱等级多集中在轻微干旱和中等干旱;秋冬季节则是严重干旱多发的季节;极端干旱多发于春季;相比降雨量较大的淮南地区,淮北地区更为干旱.     

西北地区东部季节干旱的时空变化特征分析

干旱作为我国西北地区东部影响最大的气象灾害, 可引起农业减产、水资源短缺、土地荒漠化和生态环境恶化等严重问题.在国家新一轮西部大开发战略实施之初, 在全球气候变暖背景下, 有必要对干旱发展的最新特征和演变趋势进行详细分析研究, 为加强防旱、抗旱,促进经济发展提供科学决策依据和参考.采用国家干旱标准综合干旱指数(CI指数), 利用西北地区东部74个气象代表站逐日气温、降水资料, 分析了西北地区东部不同级别干旱日数在各个季节的时空分布和变化趋势. 结果表明: 在气候变暖背景下, 西北地区东部从长期趋势看, 春、夏、秋季干旱呈加剧趋势, 冬季干旱呈减轻趋势. 21世纪以来春、夏季干旱进一步加剧, 尤其是夏季加剧更显著, 而秋、冬季干旱出现了减弱的新趋势. 在西北地区东部主降水期3-11月重-特旱加剧趋势比轻-中旱加剧显著, 南部干旱化趋势比北部更加明显. 尤其是宁夏同心地区春旱加剧非常显著, 已成为西北地区东部重-特旱最严重的地区.对于干旱发展的这一新动态, 必须引起有关部门的高度重视, 采取科学、有效手段加强防旱、抗旱.     

Gated communities in Bulgaria: interpreting a new trend in post-communist urban development

Private residential neighbourhoods encircled by a wall or fence and cut off from the public by a remote-controlled or guarded gate are not entirely new in Bulgaria. Both ‘dacha’ and leisure settlements of the communist rulers existed in such enclosed developments on the outskirts of Sofia, in mountain resorts, and on the coast of the Black Sea until the end of the 1980s. After the political change in 1989, new types of walled settlements, similar to gated communities in the U.S., began to spring up in Bulgaria, a result of the dramatic and decisive changes in Bulgarian society that are still very much underway today. Seven gated communities, comprising 78 housing units and six projects that are not yet fully completed create an entirely new social context and a residential landscape in the Sofia metropolitan area, which may indicate future residential desires. Ivanyane, situated on the western periphery of Sofia, and Mountain View Village to the southeast, exemplify the two main types of gated communities which are either self-organized by residents or developer-organized. The reasons why these gated communities were built appear to be very similar to those in other places. It can be expected that the demand for this new type of residential living will continue to increase in Sofia’s urban periphery, but it would be unwise to assume that these developments will necessarily provide a positive context for building a new society. The research for this paper was made possible through a project on post-communist urban development approved and financed by the Austrian Ministry of Education, Science and Culture and the Austrian Institute for East and Southeast Europe (Liaison Office in Sofia).     

Mineral and inorganic chemical composition of the Pernik coal, Bulgaria

The mineral and inorganic chemical composition of five types of samples from the Pernik subbituminous coals and their products generated from the Pernik preparation plant were studied. They include feed coal, low-grade coal, high-grade coal, coal slime, and host rock. The mineral matter of the coals contains 44 species that belong mainly to silicates, carbonates, sulphates, sulphides, and oxides/hydroxides, and to a lesser extent, chlorides, biogenic minerals, and organic minerals. The detrital minerals are quartz, kaolinite, micas, feldspars, magnetite, cristobalite, spessartine, and amphibole. The authigenic minerals include various sulphides, silicates, oxihydroxides, sulphates, and carbonates. Several stages and substages of formation were identified during the syngenetic and epigenetic mineral precipitations of these coals. The authigenic minerals show the greatest diversity of mineral species as the epigenetic mineralization (mostly sulphides, carbonates, and sulphates) dominates qualitatively and quantitatively. The epigenetic mineralization was a result of complex processes occurring mostly during the late development of the Pernik basin. These processes indicate intensive tectonic, hydrothermal and volcanic activities accompanied by a change from fresh to marine sedimentation environment. Thermally altered organic matter due to some of the above processes was also identified in the basin. Most of the trace elements in the Pernik coals (Mo, Be, S, Zr, Y, Cl, Ba, Sc, Ga, Ag, V, P, Br, Ni, Co, Pb, Ca, and Ti) show an affinity to OM and phases intimately associated with OM. Some of the trace elements (Sr, Ti, Mn, Ba, Pb, Cu, Zn, Co, Cr, Ni, As, Ag, Yb, Sn, Ga, Ge, etc.) are impurities in authigenic and accessory minerals, while other trace elements (La, Ba, Cu, Ce, Sb, Bi, Zn, Pb, Cd, Nd, etc.) occur as discrete phases. Elements such as Sc, Be, Y, Ba, V, Zr, S, Mo, Ti, and Ga exceed Clarke concentrations in all of the coal types studied. It was also found that a number of elements in the Pernik coals (F, V, As, Pb, Mo, Li, Sr, Ti, Ga, Ni, Ge, Cr, Mn, etc.) reveal mobility in water and could have some environmental concerns.     

基于日值SPEI的青藏高原干旱演变特征

利用1980-2014年青藏高原74个台站的气象资料,通过Penman-Monteith公式计算了蒸散发及标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）,并采用M-K趋势分析和小波分析等方法研究了高原干旱变化的时空分布特征及变化趋势。结果表明,基于Penman-Monteith公式计算潜在蒸散发的逐日SPEI指数能够很好地反映青藏高原干旱特征。1980年以来青藏高原SPEI值总体呈上升趋势,即偏于湿润,干旱强度有所降低。高原近35年的干旱演变具有明显的年代际差异,20世纪90年代之前干旱较为严重。小波分析结果表明高原干旱的发生存在2~4 a的振荡周期,在2~4 a的时间尺度上总体表现出干-湿周期变化。在整体小波变化周期中,1983-1997年虽然出现了干旱严重区间,但在1997年以后高原总体上呈现湿润趋势,3.7 a的主周期并没有影响整体变湿的趋势,且三种指标的3.7 a振荡主周期均通过了95%的红噪声检验。     

Properties and depositional environment of the Neogene Elhovo Lignite, Bulgaria

Several Mio-Pliocene aged lignite seams occur as part of a non-marine transgressive sequence in the Elhovo graben in south-eastern Bulgaria. The present study is focused on 45 samples collected from three boreholes in the eastern part of the basin. Petrographic data along with ash and sulphur contents were used in order to determine the lateral and vertical variations of the coal facies and depositional environment of the Elhovo lignite.The lignite seams accumulated in a rheotrophic, low-lying mire with high pH value and are characterized by high ash yields and sulphur contents. Despite of the neutral to weakly alkaline environment the bacterial activity was limited and the tissue preservation and gelification were mainly controlled by the redox conditions.Vegetation rich in decay resistant conifers dominated in the Elhovo basin together with mesophytic angiosperm species. The absence of algal remains and sapropelic coal indicated that open water areas were not present during peat accumulation. The latter processed in an environment, characterized by low subsidence rate, in which prior to the burial the woods were subjected to severe mechanical destruction. According to our interpretation, the enhanced impregnation of the tissues bacteria and fungi played only a secondary role in the process of humification. The lignite from borehole 122 and partly from BH 145 deposited in an environment characterized by relatively low (ground)water table, whereas to the south an area dominated by a flooded forest swamp (BH 104) formed. This is suggested by the better tissue preservation and gelification of the organic matter in BH 104. The vertical variation of the maceral composition in the studied lignite is interpreted as a consequence of vegetational changes, rather than to changes in the depositional environment. The low contents of inertinite macerals indicate that despite of the low water level the environment was relatively wet and the thermal and oxidative destruction of the tissues was limited.Peat accumulation was terminated by a major flooding event and a short term establishment of a lake. In contrast to the West Maritsa basin, no seam formed in the Elhovo basin during the filling stage of the lake.