Modelling radiocaesium transfer and long-term changes in reindeer

A dynamic model on (137)Cs in reindeer is presented, taking into consideration short- and long-term mechanisms, including the effect of ground deposition, transfer to vegetation, reindeer diet, feed intake, absorption and depletion of radiocaesium in the reindeer body. The model was optimised to fit measured activity concentrations in Swedish reindeer after the Chernobyl fallout. For comparison, regression analyses were made and aggregated transfer factors and effective ecological half-lives were estimated. The fit of the simulated model to observed activity concentrations was slightly better than the fit obtained by linear regressions. Improved knowledge about radiocaesium in vegetation would make the model more accurate for predictive purposes. Presently, the use of Tag and T(eff) is probably better for predictions, provided that their temporal and geographical limitations are taken into consideration. The dynamic model describes mechanisms better and may explain how changes in the system influence on activity concentrations of radiocaesium in the animal.     

Analysis of radiocaesium in the Lebanese soil one decade after the Chernobyl accident

Fallout from the Chernobyl reactor accident due to the transport of a radioactive cloud over Lebanon in the beginning of May 1986 was studied 12 years after the accident for determining the level of (137)Cs concentration in soil. Gamma spectroscopy measurements were performed by using coaxial high sensitivity HPGe detectors. More than 90 soil samples were collected from points uniformly distributed throughout the land of Lebanon in order to evaluate their radioactivity. The data obtained showed a relatively high (137)Cs activity per surface area contamination, up to 6545Bqm(-2) in the top soil layer 0-3cm. The average activity of (137)Cs in the top soil layer 0-3cm in depth was 59.7Bqkg(-1) dry soil ranging from 15 to 119Bqkg(-1) dry soil. The horizontal variability was found to be about 45% between the sampling sites. The depth distribution of total (137)Cs activity in soil showed an exponential decrease. Estimation of the annual effective dose due to external radiation from (137)Cs contaminated soil for selected sites gave values ranging from 19.3 to 91.6 micro Svy(-1).     

Probabilistic biokinetic modelling of radiocaesium uptake in Arctic seal species: verification of modelled data with empirical observations

The necessity to provide information about radionuclide concentrations in Arctic marine species has been heightened in recent years due to a number of accidents in Arctic regions involving nuclear vessels and the presence of a large number of potential radioactive contamination sources. The provision for such information is largely dependent on the use of radionuclide uptake and transfer models. The uptake of radionuclides in Arctic seal species in this study has been modelled using a probabilistic biokinetic approach. In this paper, model results are compared with empirical data from relevant samples taken within the Arctic region. Results indicate that the model performs well when estimating concentrations of (137)Cs in two seal species for both median values and reproduction of the distribution of data values, but not as well for a third seal species. Likely factors affecting the results are the probability density functions used for the input parameters.     

Long-term investigations of radiocaesium activity concentrations in carp in North Croatia after the Chernobyl accident

Long-term investigations of radiocaesium activity concentrations in carp in the Republic of Croatia are presented. The radiocaesium levels in carp decreased exponentially and the effective ecological half-life of (137)Cs was estimated to be about 1 year during 1987-2002 and 5 years during 1993-2005. The observed (134)Cs:(137)Cs activity ratio in carp was found to be similar to the ratio observed in other environmental samples. The concentration factor for carp (wet weight) was estimated to be 128+/-74 Lkg(-1), which is in reasonable agreement with model prediction based on K(+) concentrations in water. Estimated annual effective dose received by adult members of the Croatian population due to consumption of carp contaminated with (134)Cs and (137)Cs are small: per capita dose from this source during 1987-2005 was estimated to be 0.5+/-0.2 microSv. Due to minor freshwater fish consumption in Croatia and low radiocaesium activity concentrations in carp, it can be concluded that carp consumption was not a critical pathway for the transfer of radiocaesium from fallout to humans after the Chernobyl accident.     

Factors contributing to radiocaesium variability in upland sheep flocks in west Cumbria (United Kingdom)

Following the Chernobyl accident in 1986, restrictions were placed on the movement and slaughter of sheep within upland areas of the UK because radiocaesium activity concentrations in their meat exceeded 1000 Bq kg(-1) fresh weight. Some farms remain under restriction in 2007. From 1991 to 1993 detailed studies were conducted on three sheep farms within the restricted area of west Cumbria to systematically assess the various parameters which may contribute to the observed variability in radiocaesium activity concentrations within sheep flocks. This paper reports the spatial variation in soil and vegetation activity concentrations across the grazed areas at these farms and determines the influence of grazing behaviour on variability in (137)Cs activity concentrations between individual sheep within the flocks. Together with previously reported results, these new data are used to draw conclusions on the factors determining variability within the three flocks. However, the factors are too site specific to be able to generalise the findings to other farms within the restricted areas of the UK.     

Inter-taxa differences in root uptake of 103/106Ru by plants

Ruthenium-106 is of potential radioecological importance but soil-to-plant Transfer Factors for it are available only for few plant species. A Residual Maximum Likelihood (REML) procedure was used to construct a database of relative (103/106)Ru concentrations in 114 species of flowering plants including 106 species from experiments and 12 species from the literature (with 4 species in both). An Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), coded using a recent phylogeny for flowering plants, was used to identify a significant phylogenetic effect on relative mean (103/106)Ru concentrations in flowering plants. There were differences of 2,465-fold in the concentration to which plant species took up (103/106)Ru. Thirty-nine percent of the variance in inter-species differences could be ascribed to the taxonomic level of Order or above. Plants in the Orders Geraniales and Asterales had notably high uptake of (103/106)Ru compared to other plant groups. Plants on the Commelinoid monocot clades, and especially the Poaceae, had notably low uptake of (103/106)Ru. These data demonstrate that plant species are not independent units for (103/106)Ru concentrations but are linked through phylogeny. It is concluded that models of soil-to-plant transfer of (103/106)Ru should assume that; neither soil variables alone affect transfer nor plant species are independent units, and taking account of plant phylogeny might aid predictions of soil-to-plant transfer of (103/106)Ru, especially for species for which Transfer Factors are not available.     

110mAg root and foliar uptake in vegetables and its migration in soil

110mAg, as a radionuclide of corrosion products in water-cooled nuclear reactors, was detected in the liquid effluents of Guangdong Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station (GNPS) of Daya Bay under normal operation conditions. Experiments on a simulated terrestrial agricultural ecosystem were carried out using the pot experiment approach. The most common plants in Hong Kong and the South China vegetable gardens such as lettuce, Chinese spinach, kale, carrot, pepper, eggplant, bean, flowering cabbage, celery, European onion and cucumber were selected for (110m)Ag root and foliar uptake tests. The results show that carrot, kale and flowering cabbage have the greatest values of soil to plant transfer factor among the vegetables, while(110m)Ag can be transferred to Chinese spinach via foliar uptake. Flowering cabbage, the most popular leafy vegetable locally, could be used as a biomonitor for the radioisotope contamination in vegetables. Soil column and adsorption tests were also carried out to study the leaching ability and distribution coefficient (K(d)) of (110m)Ag in the soil. The results show that most of the radionuclide was adsorbed in the top 1 cm of soil regardless of the pH value. The K(d) was also determined.     

The impact of climate changes on mass events in China

There is an increasing number of “mass events” in mainland China. My study extends the current studies to the context of China and tries to examine the potential impacts of climate changes on human conflicts in China. The results suggest a strong linkage between the deviation of monthly mean temperature from the historical mean and the number of mass events in a province. If the current trend of warming persists, in the next 6–8 decades, the number of mass events in China will increase by over 8.8%.     

Variation in transfer factor of radiocaesium in bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus) in clear cut and mature forest sites after the Chernobyl accident

Bank voles that were collected between 1986 and 2004 at sites in Chernobyl fallout areas of northern Sweden showed higher (137)Cs activity concentrations at the mature forest sites compared to clear cuts. This difference was not attributed to differences in ground deposition between sites but to differences in aggregated transfer rates to voles. Differences in transfer between forest types were evident for all years 1986-2004 but the change occurred at different rates in the two habitats. The apparent transfer factor between bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus) and voles was positively related and indicated that a biomagnification was about 1.5 from vegetation to these small mammalian herbivores. The aggregated transfer factor to bank voles measured in the forest habitat, although starting at higher levels declined faster with time than clear cut sites and the differences between the forest habitat and the clear cut areas diminished with time. After the Chernobyl accident in 1986 the mean level in bank vole was 514Bq/kg fresh mass (SD=505) that increased to 1485Bq/kg (SD=881) in 1988. The activity concentration declined thereafter. The bank voles collected in similar habitats in 2004 contained on average 1022Bq/kg (SD=723). Still 18 years after the radionuclide fallout over Sweden high activity concentrations in voles could be found.     

An overview of the effect of organic matter on soil-radiocaesium interaction: implications in root uptake

This paper aims to give an overview of the effect of organic matter on soil-radiocaesium interaction and its implications on soil-to-plant transfer. Studies carried out after the Chernobyl accident have shown that high 137CS soil-to-plant transfer persists in organic soils over years. In most of these soils, the specific sites in clays control radiocaesium adsorption, organic compounds having an indirect effect. Only in organic soils with more than 95% of organic matter content and negligible clay content does adsorption occur mostly on non-specific sites. After a contamination event, two main factors account for the high transfer: the low solid-liquid distribution coefficient, which is due to the low clay content and high NH4+ concentration in the soil solution, and the low K+ availability, which enhances root uptake. The estimation of the reversibly adsorbed fraction, by means of desorption protocols, agrees with the former conclusions, since it cannot be correlated with the organic matter content and shows the lack of specificity of the adsorption in the organic phase. Moreover, the time-dependent pattern of the exchangeable fraction is related to soil-plant transfer dynamics.     

Plant uptake and downward migration of 85Sr and 137Cs after their deposition on to flooded rice fields: lysimeter experiments with and without the addition of KCl and lime

In order to study the plant uptake and downward migration of radiostrontium and radiocesium deposited on to a flooded rice field, 85Sr and 137Cs were applied to the standing water over an acidic sandy soil in planted lysimeters. The plant uptake was quantified with the areal transfer factor (TFa, m2 kg(-1)-dry plant). Following the spiking 14 days after transplanting, the TFa values for the hulled seeds were 3.9 x 10(-4) for 85Sr and 1.4 x 10(-4) for 137Cs, whereas those for the straws were 1.3 x 10(-2) and 3.2 x 10(-4), respectively. The 137Cs TFa from the spiking at the anthesis/milky-ripe stage was several times higher than that from the earlier spiking, whereas the difference was much less in the 85Sr TFa. Such an increase in the 137Cs TFa was attributed mainly to an enhanced plant-base uptake. The addition of KCl and lime after the spiking significantly reduced the TFa values of both radionuclides. The reducing effect was greater for the later spiking. An appreciable fraction of the applied activity leached out of the lysimeter for 85Sr, whereas a negligible fraction leached for 137Cs. The leaching was remarkably increased by the KCl and lime addition for both. A conspicuous localization of 137Cs with respect to the soil surface was observed. In a batch experiment, the 137Cs concentration in the standing water decreased more rapidly than that of 85Sr, both of which were fitted to the power functions of the elapsed time. To add KCl and lime slowed such decreases to lessen the distribution coefficients (Kd) of both 85Sr and 137Cs.     

Assessment of cadmium bioaccessibility to predict its bioavailability in contaminated soils

In vitro assays have been developed to determine metal bioaccessibility in contaminated soils; however, their application to Cd is limited. To assess their suitability to determine Cd relative bioavailability (RBA), Cd-RBA in 12 contaminated soils containing 3.00–296 mg kg^− 1 Cd were determined using a mouse model and compared with Cd bioaccessibility data based on four assays including the UBM, SBRC, IVG, and PBET. After being administered feed amended with soil or CdCl₂ for 10-day, the Cd concentrations in the mouse liver and/or kidneys were used as biomarkers to estimate Cd-RBA. Cd-RBA was comparable at 34–90% and 40–78% based on mouse liver and kidneys with RSD of 7.10–8.99%, and 37–84% based on mouse liver plus kidneys with lower RSD of 5.8%. Cadmium bioaccessibility in soils varied with assays, with 61–99, 59–103, 54–107, and 35–97% in the gastric phase and 20–56, 38–77, 42–88, and 19–64% in the intestinal phase of the UBM, SBRC, IVG and PBET assays. Based on the combined biomarker of liver plus kidneys, better correlation was observed for PBET (r² = 0.61–0.70) than those for IVG, UBM and SBRC assays (0.12–0.52). The monthly Cd intake in children was 0.24–23.9 μg kg^− 1 using total Cd concentration in soils, which was reduced by 43% to 0.18–12.3 μg kg^− 1 using bioavailable Cd. Our data suggest it is important to consider Cd-RBA to assess risk associated with contaminated soils and the PBET may have potential to predict Cd-RBA in contaminated soils.     

Autonomous adaptation to riverine flooding in Satkhira District,Bangladesh: implications for adaptation planning

Systematic understanding of adaptation measures utilised by households in developing countries is needed to identify the constraints they face, and the external interventions or adaptation planning needed to overcome them. Understanding of autonomous household adaptation patterns remains underdeveloped. In particular, little is known regarding whether households are implementing incremental or transformational adaptation measures as well as the implications of this for adaptation planning. We demonstrate the suitability of the risk hazard approach for understanding autonomous household adaptation patterns and discuss the implications for planned adaptation. To achieve this, we use an in-depth village case study from an area of Bangladesh particularly vulnerable to climate change, using qualitative semi-structured household interviews as primary material. We find that the risk hazard approach is ideal for exploring autonomous adaptations because of its capacity for understanding how households respond to livelihood risk, and what resources are required for it to be most effective. However, the risk hazard approach overlooks equity and fairness considerations need to be integrated due to the insufficient emphasis on these concerns.

     

Monitoring of firefighters exposure to smoke during fire experiments in Portugal

Forest fires represent a serious threat to public security in Europe due to the large burned area. Moreover, smoke pollution due to forest fire events is an important public health issue for the communities directly affected, and particularly for the personnel involved in firefighting operations. Aiming to contribute to the scientific knowledge concerning firefighters exposure to forest fires smoke, data of individual exposure to carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, volatile organic compounds, and particulate matter were obtained during experimental field fires for a group of 10 firefighters equipped with portable “in continuum” measuring devices. Measured values are very high exceeding the Occupational Exposure Standard limits, in particular for peak limit thresholds. These are the first measurements and analysis of firefighter's individual exposure to toxic gases and particles in fire smoke experiments in Europe. However, they already indicate that urgent measures to avoid these levels of exposure are needed.     

Foliar and root uptake of Cs, Sr and Zn in processing tomato plants (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.)

The results of an experimental study on the behaviour of ¹³⁴Cs, ⁸⁵Sr and ⁶⁵Zn in processing tomato plants grown in peat substrate are presented. Plants were contaminated by wet deposition of ¹³⁴Cs, ⁸⁵Sr and ⁶⁵Zn, either by sprinkling the above ground part at two phenological stages or by administering ¹³⁴Cs, ⁸⁵Sr and ⁶⁵Zn to the soil. The plants contaminated at the second phenological stage intercepted 38.3% less than those contaminated at the first stage, although leaf area increased by more than double. Transfer coefficients from peat soil to ripe fruit for ¹³⁴Cs are significantly higher than those for ⁸⁵Sr and ⁶⁵Zn. Leaf to fruit transfer coefficients for ¹³⁴Cs are one order of magnitude higher than for ⁶⁵Zn and two orders higher than for ⁸⁵Sr. Only when deposition affects fruits, as at the second phenological stage, are transfer coefficients to fruits similar for the three radionuclides.     

Foliar and root uptake of 134Cs, 85Sr and 65Zn in processing tomato plants (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.)

Rice is a staple food in Japan and other Asian countries, and the soil-to-plant transfer factor of 137Cs released into the environment is an important parameter for estimating the internal radiation dose from food ingestion. Soil and rice grain samples were collected from 20 paddy fields throughout Aomori Prefecture, Japan in 1996 and 1997, and soil-to-polished rice transfer factors were determined. The concentrations of 137Cs, derived from fallout depositions, stable Cs and K in paddy soils were 2.5-21 Bq kg(-1), 1.2-5.3 and 5000-13000 mg kg(-1), respectively. The ranges of 137Cs, stable Cs and K concentration in polished rice were 2.5-85 mBq kg(-1) dry wt., 0.0005-0.0065 and 580-910 mg kg(-1) dry wt., respectively. The geometric mean of soil-to-polished rice transfer factor of 137Cs was 0.0016, and its 95% confidence interval was 0.00021-0.012. The transfer factor of 137Cs was approximately 3 times higher than that of stable Cs at 0.00056, and they were well correlated. This implied that fallout 137Cs, mostly deposited up to the 1980s, is more mobile and more easily absorbed by plants than stable Cs in the soil, although the soil-to-plant transfer of stable Cs can be used for predicting the long-term transfer of 137Cs. The transfer factors of both 137Cs and stable Cs decreased with increasing K concentration in the soil. This suggests that K in the soil was a competitive factor for the transfers of both 137Cs and stable Cs from soil-to-polished rice. However, the transfer factors of 137Cs and stable Cs were independent of the amount of organic materials in soils.     

Exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes: population and asset exposure to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

The paper provides a first quantitative estimate of the potential number of people and value of assets exposed to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. The study used an elevation-based geographic information system-analysis based on physical exposure and socio-economic vulnerability under a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios. It particularly considered a worst-case scenario assuming even if defences (natural and/or man-made) exist, they are subjected to failure under a 100-year flood event. About 8% of Dar es Salaam lies within the low-elevation coastal zone (below the 10 m contour lines). Over 210,000 people could be exposed to a 100-year coastal flood event by 2070, up from 30,000 people in 2005. The asset that could be damaged due to such event is also estimated to rise from US35 million (2005) to US35 million (2005) to US10 billion (2070). Results show that socio-economic changes in terms of rapid population growth, urbanisation, economic growth, and their spatial distribution play a significant role over climate change in the overall increase in exposure. However, the study illustrates that steering development away from low-lying areas that are not (or less) threatened by sea-level rise and extreme climates could be an effective strategic response to reduce the future growth in exposure. Enforcement of such policy where informal settlements dominate urbanisation (as in many developing countries) could undoubtedly be a major issue. It should be recognised that this analysis only provides indicative results. Lack of sufficient and good quality observational local climate data (e.g. long-term sea-level measurements), finer-resolution spatial population and asset distribution and local elevation data, and detailed information about existing coastal defences and current protection levels are identified as limitations of the study. As such, it should be seen as a first step towards analysing these issues and needs to be followed by more detailed, city-based analyses.     

Review and assessment of models used to predict the fate of radionuclides in lakes

A variety of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in fresh water ecosystems have been developed and tested during recent decades within the framework of many international research projects. These models have been implemented in Computerised Decision Support Systems (CDSS) for assisting the appropriate management of fresh water bodies contaminated by radionuclides. The assessment of the state-of-the-art and the consolidation of these CDSSs has been envisaged, by the scientific community, as a primary necessity for the rationalisation of the sector. The classification of the approaches of the various models, the determination of their essential features, the identification of similarities and differences among them and the definition of their application domains are all essential for the harmonisation of the existing CDSSs and for the possible development and improvement of reference models that can be widely applied in different environmental conditions. The present paper summarises the results of the assessment and evaluation of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in lacustrine ecosystems. Such models were developed and tested within major projects financed by the European Commission during its 4th Framework Programme (1994-1998). The work done during the recent decades by many modellers at an international level has produced some consolidated results that are widely accepted by most experts. Nevertheless, some new results have arisen from recent studies and certain model improvements are still necessary.     

Plant uptake of 134Cs in relation to soil properties and time

134Cs uptake by sunflower and soybean plants grown on seven different soils and its relation to soil properties were studied in a greenhouse pot experiment. Soil in each pot was contaminated by dripping the 134Cs in layers, and sunflower and soybean plants were grown for three and two successive periods, respectively. 134Cs plant uptake was expressed as the transfer factor (TF) (Bq kg(-1) plant/Bq kg(-1) soil) and as the daily plant uptake (flux) (Bq pot(-1) day(-1)) taking into account biomass production and growth time. For the studied soils and for both plants, no consistent trend of TFs with time was observed. The use of fluxes, in general, provided less variable results than TFs and stronger functional relationships. A negative power functional relationship between exchangeable potassium plus ammonium cations expressed as a percentage of cation exchange capacity of each soil and 134Cs fluxes was found for the sunflower plants. A similar but weaker relationship was observed for soybean plants. The significant correlation between sunflower and soybean TFs and fluxes, as well as the almost identical highest/lowest 134Cs flux ratios, in the studied soils, indicated a similar effect of soil characteristics on 134Cs uptake by both plants. In all the studied soils, sunflower 134Cs TFs and fluxes were significantly higher than the respective soybean values, while no significant difference was observed in potassium content and daily potassium plant uptake (flux) of the two plants.     

Linking local impacts to changes in climate: a guide to attribution

Assessing past impacts of observed climate change on natural, human and managed systems requires detailed knowledge about the effects of both climatic and other drivers of change, and their respective interaction. Resulting requirements with regard to system understanding and long-term observational data can be prohibitive for quantitative detection and attribution methods, especially in the case of human systems and in regions with poor monitoring records. To enable a structured examination of past impacts in such cases, we follow the logic of quantitative attribution assessments, however, allowing for qualitative methods and different types of evidence. We demonstrate how multiple lines of evidence can be integrated in support of attribution exercises for human and managed systems. Results show that careful analysis can allow for attribution statements without explicit end-to-end modeling of the whole climate-impact system. However, care must be taken not to overstate or generalize the results and to avoid bias when the analysis is motivated by and limited to observations considered consistent with climate change impacts.