Trends in older driver crash involvement rates and survivability in the United States: An update

Objective

Previous research has shown that fatal crash involvement rates per licensed driver aged 70 and older declined significantly more per year in the United States than rates for middle-aged drivers aged 35–54 during 1997–2008, and per vehicle mile traveled from 1995–1996 to 2001–2002. Analyses of police-reported crash data during 1997–2005 indicated that the greater declines for older drivers were due to decreases in crash involvement and in the risk of dying in the crashes that occurred. The current study examined if trends in crash rates, crash involvements, and survivability persisted into more recent years.

Methods

Trends for drivers 70 and older were compared with trends for drivers aged 35–54 for U.S. national fatal passenger vehicle crash involvements per 100,000 licensed drivers during 1997–2012 and for U.S. national fatal passenger vehicle crash involvements per vehicle miles traveled in 1995–1996, 2001–2002, and 2008. Using police-reported crash data during 1997–2008 from 20 U.S. states, trends in involvement rates in non-fatal crashes of various severities per 100,000 licensed drivers and changes in the odds of death and the odds of death or serious injury in a crash were compared between older and middle-aged drivers.

Results

During 2007–2012, declines in national fatal crash involvement rates per licensed driver were similar for drivers 70 and older and middle-aged drivers (18 percent each). However, when considering the entire study period, fatal crash involvement rates continued to reflect a substantially larger decline for drivers 70 and older than for middle-aged drivers (42 vs. 30 percent per licensed driver during 1997–2012, 39 vs. 26 percent per vehicle mile traveled from 1995–2006 to 2008). When analyses of police-reported crash data were extended through 2008, non-fatal injury crash involvement rates per licensed driver declined more for older than for middle-aged drivers (39 vs. 30 percent), and unlike in prior research, average annual declines were significantly larger for drivers 80 and older. Property damage-only crash involvement rates similarly declined significantly more for older than for middle-aged drivers (15 vs. 3 percent). Drivers 70 and older in 1997 were 3.5 times more likely than middle-aged drivers to die in a crash, and this ratio declined to 3.2 by 2008.

Conclusions

Although declines in fatal crash involvement rates in recent years have not differed between older and middle-aged drivers, this did not undo earlier gains for older drivers. The recent slowing in the relative magnitude of the decline for older drivers may be related to the differential effect of the U.S. recession on fatal crash involvements of drivers in these age groups. The decreased likelihood of being involved in a crash of any severity and increased survivability when a crash occurred held when examining data through 2008, and for drivers 80 and older, significant declines in crash involvement relative to middle-aged drivers extended to non-fatal injury crashes.     

Increased traffic accident rates associated with shale gas drilling in Pennsylvania

Objectives

We examined the association between shale gas drilling and motor vehicle accident rates in Pennsylvania.

Methods

Using publicly available data on all reported vehicle crashes in Pennsylvania, we compared accident rates in counties with and without shale gas drilling, in periods with and without intermittent drilling (using data from 2005 to 2012). Counties with drilling were matched to non-drilling counties with similar population and traffic in the pre-drilling period.

Results

Heavily drilled counties in the north experienced 15–23% higher vehicle crash rates in 2010–2012 and 61–65% higher heavy truck crash rates in 2011–2012 than control counties. We estimated 5–23% increases in crash rates when comparing months with drilling and months without, but did not find significant effects on fatalities and major injury crashes. Heavily drilled counties in the southwest showed 45–47% higher rates of fatal and major injury crashes in 2012 than control counties, but monthly comparisons of drilling activity showed no significant differences associated with drilling.

Conclusions

Vehicle accidents have measurably increased in conjunction with shale gas drilling.     

Older drivers’ crashes in Queensland,Australia

Background

The growing proportion of older adults in Australia is predicted to comprise 23% of the population by 2030. Accordingly, an increasing number of older drivers and fatal crashes of these drivers could also be expected. While the cognitive and physiological limitations of ageing and their road safety implications have been widely documented, research has generally considered older drivers as a homogeneous group. Knowledge of age-related crash trends within the older driver group itself is currently limited.

Objective

The aim of this research was to identify age-related differences in serious road crashes of older drivers. This was achieved by comparing crash characteristics between older and younger drivers and between sub-groups of older drivers. Particular attention was paid to serious crashes (crashes resulting in hospitalisation and fatalities) as they place the greatest burden on the Australian health system.

Method

Using Queensland Crash data, a total of 191,709 crashes of all-aged drivers (17–80+) over a 9-year period were analysed. Crash patterns of drivers’ aged 17–24, 25–39, 40–49, 50–59, 60–69, 70–79 and 80+ were compared in terms of crash severity (e.g., fatal), at fault levels, traffic control measures (e.g., stop signs) and road features (e.g., intersections). Crashes of older driver sub-groups (60–69, 70–79, 80+) were also compared to those of middle-aged drivers (40–49 and 50–59 combined, who were identified as the safest driving cohort) with respect to crash-related traffic control features and other factors (e.g., speed). Confounding factors including speed and crash nature (e.g., sideswipe) were controlled for.

Results and discussion

Results indicated that patterns of serious crashes, as a function of crash severity, at-fault levels, road conditions and traffic control measures, differed significantly between age groups. As a group, older drivers (60+) represented the greatest proportion of crashes resulting in fatalities and hospitalisation, as well as those involving uncontrolled intersections and failure to give way. The opposite was found for middle-aged drivers, although they had the highest proportion of alcohol and speed-related crashes when compared to older drivers. Among all older drivers, those aged 60–69 were least likely to be involved in or the cause of crashes, but most likely to crash at interchanges and as a result of driving while fatigued or after consuming alcohol. Drivers aged 70–79 represented a mid-range level of crash involvement and culpability, and were most likely to crash at stop and give way signs. Drivers aged 80 years and beyond were most likely to be seriously injured or killed in, and at-fault for, crashes, and had the greatest number of crashes at both conventional and circular intersections. Overall, our findings highlight the heterogeneity of older drivers’ crash patterns and suggest that age-related differences must be considered in measures designed to improve older driver safety.     

Crash risk factors related to individuals sustaining and drivers following traumatic brain injuries

Objective

Some crashes result in drivers experiencing (or sustaining) a traumatic brain injury (TBI) while other crashes involve drivers that have already experienced a TBI. The objective of this study is to examine the factors that influence these two TBI crash groups.

Methods

Data from the Iowa Department of Public Health's Brain Injury Registry and Department of Transportation's crash records were linked together and used in logistic regression models to predict the likelihood of a driver sustaining a TBI in a crash and those who drive after a TBI.

Results

Between 2001 and 2006, there were 2382 crashes in which an individual sustained a TBI. As expected, a higher likelihood of sustaining a TBI was observed for motorcycle drivers who did not wear a helmet and in crashes that resulted in total or disabling vehicle damage. Focusing specifically on the post-TBI drivers (and not occupants), 1583 were involved in crashes. These post-TBI drivers were less likely to wear seatbelts or have passengers in the vehicle at the time of the crash, and were more likely to crash at night. Post-TBI drivers were also involved in significantly more multiple crashes (about 14%) when compared to drivers who have not experienced a TBI (about 10%) during the study period. When controlling for gender, date of injury, and severity of TBI (using Glasgow Coma Scale), individuals that sustained a TBI when they were younger were more likely to be involved in multiple crashes.

Conclusions

Different factors influence the crash likelihood for those that sustain a TBI in a crash and those that crash following a TBI. In general, post-TBI drivers have a higher occurrence of multiple crashes and this should be further explored to guide driver rehabilitation, evaluation, and training.     

Injury prediction in a side impact crash using human body model simulation

Background

Improved understanding of the occupant loading conditions in real world crashes is critical for injury prevention and new vehicle design. The purpose of this study was to develop a robust methodology to reconstruct injuries sustained in real world crashes using vehicle and human body finite element models.

Methods

A real world near-side impact crash was selected from the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) database. An average sedan was struck at approximately the B-pillar with a 290 degree principal direction of force by a lightweight pickup truck, resulting in a maximum crush of 45 cm and a crash reconstruction derived Delta-V of 28 kph. The belted 73-year-old midsized female driver sustained severe thoracic injuries, serious brain injuries, moderate abdominal injuries, and no pelvic injury. Vehicle finite element models were selected to reconstruct the crash. The bullet vehicle parameters were heuristically optimized to match the crush profile of the simulated struck vehicle and the case vehicle. The Total Human Model for Safety (THUMS) midsized male finite element model of the human body was used to represent the case occupant and reconstruct her injuries using the head injury criterion (HIC), half deflection, thoracic trauma index (TTI), and pelvic force to predict injury risk. A variation study was conducted to evaluate the robustness of the injury predictions by varying the bullet vehicle parameters.

Results

The THUMS thoracic injury metrics resulted in a calculated risk exceeding 90% for AIS3+ injuries and 70% risk of AIS4+ injuries, consistent with her thoracic injury outcome. The THUMS model predicted seven rib fractures compared to the case occupant's 11 rib fractures, which are both AIS3 injuries. The pelvic injury risk for AIS2+ and AIS3+ injuries were 37% and 2.6%, respectively, consistent with the absence of pelvic injury. The THUMS injury prediction metrics were most sensitive to bullet vehicle location. The maximum 95% confidence interval width for the mean injury metrics was only 5% demonstrating high confidence in the THUMS injury prediction.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates a variation study methodology in which human body models can be reliably used to robustly predict injury probability consistent with real world crash injury outcome.     

Investigation of pulmonary contusion extent and its correlation to crash,occupant, and injury characteristics in motor vehicle crashes

Background

Pulmonary contusion (PC) is a leading injury in blunt chest trauma and is most commonly caused by motor vehicle crashes (MVC). To improve understanding of the relationship between insult and outcome, this study relates PC severity to crash, occupant, and injury parameters in MVCs.

Methods

Twenty-nine subjects with PC were selected from the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN) database, which contains detailed crash and medical information on MVC occupants. Computed tomography scans of these subjects were segmented using a semi-automated protocol to quantify the volumetric percentage of injured tissue in each lung. Techniques were used to quantify the geometry and location of PC, as well as the location of rib fractures. Injury extent including percent PC volume and the number of rib fractures was analyzed and its relation to crash and occupant characteristics was explored.

Results

Frontal and near-side crashes composed 72% of the dataset and the near-side door was the component most often associated with PC causation. The number of rib fractures increased with age and fracture patterns varied with crash type. In near-side crashes, occupant weight and BMI were positively correlated with percent PC volume and the number of rib fractures, and the impact severity was positively correlated with percent PC volume in the lung nearest the impact.

Conclusions

This study quantified PC morphology in 29 MVC occupants and examined the relationship between injury severity and crash and occupant parameters to better characterize the mechanism of injury. The results of this study may contribute to the prevention, mitigation, and treatment of PC.     

The relationship between vehicle roof crush and head,neck and spine injury in rollover crashes

Background

It is well established that rollover crashes are associated with a higher risk of serious injury and death than other types of crashes. Some of the most serious injuries that can result from a rollover crash are those to the head, neck and spine. The mechanism of injury to these body parts in a rollover is a matter of dispute in the literature. Some authors have concluded that the magnitude of vehicle roof deformation or vertical roof crush resulting from a rollover crash is not causally associated with head and neck injury severity, while others offer support for a causal association between roof crush and the degree of injury. A better understanding of the cause of serious injuries resulting from rollover crashes is important for improving injury prevention.

Methods

This study utilized data from the National Automotive Sampling System – Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) for the years 1997 through 2007. Both cross-sectional and matched case–control designs along with a new composite injury metric termed the Head, Neck and Spine New Injury Severity Score (HNS-NISS) were used to analyze these data.

Results

The cross-sectional analysis demonstrated a 64% (95% CI: 26–114%) increase in the odds of a life-threatening injury as estimated by the HNS-NISS with every 10 cm of increased roof crush. The results of the matched case–control analysis demonstrated a 44% (95% CI: 8–91%) increase in the odds of sustaining any injury to the head, neck or spine with every 10 cm increase in roof crush.

Conclusion

These results lend statistical support to a causal association between roof crush and head, neck and spine injury severity. Though they do not constitute definitive proof, they do contradict previously published theories suggesting that roof deformation is unrelated to such injuries.     

Declines in fatal crashes of older drivers: changes in crash risk and survivability

Objectives

Previous research has found that older driver fatal crash involvement rates per licensed driver declined substantially in the United States during 1997–2006 and declined much faster than the rate for middle-age drivers. The current study examined whether the larger-than-expected decline for older drivers extended to nonfatal crashes and whether the decline in fatal crash risk reflects lower likelihood of crashing or an improvement in survivability of the crashes that occur.

Methods

Trends in the rates of passenger vehicle crash involvements per 100,000 licensed drivers for drivers 70 and older (older drivers) were compared with trends for drivers ages 35–54 (middle-age drivers). Fatal crash information was obtained from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System for years 1997–2008, and nonfatal crash information was obtained from 13 states with good reporting information for years 1997–2005. Analysis of covariance models compared trends in annual crash rates for older drivers relative to rates for middle-age drivers. Differences in crash survivability were measured in terms of the odds of fatality given a crash each year, and the historical trends for older versus middle-age drivers were compared.

Results

Fatal crash involvement rates declined for older and middle-age drivers during 1997–2008 (1997–2005 for the 13 state subsample), but the decline for drivers 70 and older far exceeded the decline for drivers ages 35–54 (37 versus 23 percent, nationally; 22 versus 1 percent, 13 states). Nonfatal injury crash involvement rates showed similarly larger-than-expected declines for older drivers in the 13 state subsample, but the differences were smaller and not statistically significant (27 percent reduction for older drivers versus 16 percent for middle-age drivers). Property-damage-only crash involvement rates declined for older drivers (10 percent) but increased for middle-age drivers (1 percent). In 1997, older drivers were 3.5 times more likely than middle-age drivers to die in police-reported crashes (6.2 versus 1.8 deaths per 1000 crashes), but this difference was reduced during the 9-year study period to 2.9 times, as the rate of older drivers dying in a crash declined (5.5 deaths per 1000 crashes in 2005) and the death risk remained relatively stable for middle-age drivers.

Conclusions

Contrary to expectations based on increased licensure and travel by older drivers, their fatal crash risk has declined during the past decade and has declined at a faster rate than for middle-age drivers. The decreased risk for older drivers appears to extend not only to nonfatal injury crashes but also to property-damage-only crashes, at least as reported to police in the 13 states included in the nonfatal injury analysis. Although insurance collision data suggest that overall crash risk of older drivers may not be changing relative to middle-age drivers, the current analysis indicates that the reduced fatality risk of older drivers reflects both less likelihood of being involved in a police-reported crash and greater likelihood that they will survive when they do crash.     

Pregnant driver-associated motor vehicle crashes in North Carolina, 2001–2008

Background

Motor vehicle crashes are the leading cause of maternal injury-related mortality during pregnancy in the United States, yet pregnant women remain an understudied population in motor vehicle safety research.

Methods

We estimated the risk of being a pregnant driver in a crash among 878,546 pregnant women, 16–46 years, who reached the 20th week of pregnancy in North Carolina (NC) from 2001 to 2008. We also examined the circumstances surrounding the crash events. Pregnant drivers in crashes were identified by probabilistic linkage of live birth and fetal death records and state motor vehicle crash reports.

Results

During the 8-year study period, the estimated risk of being a driver in a crash was 12.6 per 1000 pregnant women. Pregnant women at highest risk of being drivers in serious crashes were 18–24 years old (4.5 per 1000; 95% confidence interval, CI,4.3, 4.7), non-Hispanic black (4.8 per 1000; 95% CI = 4.5, 5.1), had high school diplomas only (4.5 per 1000; 95% CI = 4.2, 4.7) or some college (4.1 per 1000; 95% CI = 3.9, 4.4), were unmarried (4.7 per 1000; 95% CI = 4.4, 4.9), or tobacco users (4.5 per 1000; 95% CI = 4.1, 5.0). A high proportion of crashes occurred between 20 and 27 weeks of pregnancy (45%) and a lower proportion of crashes involved unbelted pregnant drivers (1%) or airbag deployment (10%). Forty percent of crashes resulted in driver injuries.

Conclusions

NC has a relatively high pregnant driver crash risk among the four U.S. states that have linked vital records and crash reports to examine pregnancy-associated crashes. Crash risks were especially elevated among pregnant women who were young, non-Hispanic black, unmarried, or used tobacco. Additional research is needed to quantify pregnant women's driving frequency and patterns.     

Critical older driver errors in a national sample of serious U.S. crashes

Objective

Older drivers are at increased risk of crash involvement per mile traveled. The purpose of this study was to examine older driver errors in serious crashes to determine which errors are most prevalent.

Methods

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s National Motor Vehicle Crash Causation Survey collected in-depth, on-scene data for a nationally representative sample of 5470 U.S. police-reported passenger vehicle crashes during 2005–2007 for which emergency medical services were dispatched. There were 620 crashes involving 647 drivers aged 70 and older, representing 250,504 crash-involved older drivers. The proportion of various critical errors made by drivers aged 70 and older were compared with those made by drivers aged 35–54.

Results

Driver error was the critical reason for 97% of crashes involving older drivers. Among older drivers who made critical errors, the most common were inadequate surveillance (33%) and misjudgment of the length of a gap between vehicles or of another vehicle’s speed, illegal maneuvers, medical events, and daydreaming (6% each). Inadequate surveillance (33% vs. 22%) and gap or speed misjudgment errors (6% vs. 3%) were more prevalent among older drivers than middle-aged drivers. Seventy-one percent of older drivers’ inadequate surveillance errors were due to looking and not seeing another vehicle or failing to see a traffic control rather than failing to look, compared with 40% of inadequate surveillance errors among middle-aged drivers. About two-thirds (66%) of older drivers’ inadequate surveillance errors and 77% of their gap or speed misjudgment errors were made when turning left at intersections. When older drivers traveled off the edge of the road or traveled over the lane line, this was most commonly due to non-performance errors such as medical events (51% and 44%, respectively), whereas middle-aged drivers were involved in these crash types for other reasons. Gap or speed misjudgment errors and inadequate surveillance errors were significantly more prevalent among female older drivers than among female middle-aged drivers, but the prevalence of these errors did not differ significantly between older and middle-aged male drivers. These errors comprised 51% of errors among older female drivers but only 31% among older male drivers.

Conclusions

Efforts to reduce older driver crash involvements should focus on diminishing the likelihood of the most common driver errors. Countermeasures that simplify or remove the need to make left turns across traffic such as roundabouts, protected left turn signals, and diverging diamond intersection designs could decrease the frequency of inadequate surveillance and gap or speed misjudgment errors. In the future, vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure communications may also help protect older drivers from these errors.     

Analysis of large truck crash severity using heteroskedastic ordered probit models

Long-combination vehicles (LCVs) have significant potential to increase economic productivity for shippers and carriers by decreasing the number of truck trips, thus reducing costs. However, size and weight regulations, triggered by safety concerns and, in some cases, infrastructure investment concerns, have prevented large-scale adoption of such vehicles. Information on actual crash performance is needed. To this end, this work uses standard and heteroskedastic ordered probit models, along with the United States’ Large Truck Crash Causation Study, General Estimates System, and Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey data sets, to study the impact of vehicle, occupant, driver, and environmental characteristics on injury outcomes for those involved in crashes with heavy-duty trucks. Results suggest that the likelihood of fatalities and severe injury is estimated to rise with the number of trailers, but fall with the truck length and gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR). While findings suggest that fatality likelihood for two-trailer LCVs is higher than that of single-trailer non-LCVs and other trucks, controlling for exposure risk suggest that total crash costs of LCVs are lower (per vehicle-mile traveled) than those of other trucks.     

Incidence and characteristics of school bus crashes and injuries

Objective

Studies of school bus crashes have focused on the biomechanics of catastrophic collisions, with very few examining crash incidence.

Methods

Crashes in the state of Iowa were examined from January 2002 through December 2005. School bus crashes were identified through the Iowa Crash Data, a comprehensive database of all reported crashes in the State of Iowa. School bus mileage data were provided by the Iowa Department of Education. School bus crash, fatality, and injury rates were calculated and differences in crash and injury characteristics between school buses and other vehicles were examined.

Results

The school bus crash, fatality and non-fatal injury rates were 320.7, 0.4 and 13.6 per 100 million bus miles travelled, respectively. School bus crash fatality and injury rates were 3.5 and 5.4 times lower than overall all vehicle crash fatality and injury rates, respectively. Drivers of other vehicles were more likely to have caused the crash than the bus driver (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

School buses experience low crash rates, and the majority of crashes do not lead to injury. Buses are among the safest forms of road transportation, and efforts to educate drivers of other vehicles may help reduce crashes with buses.     

Fatal crash involvement of unlicensed young drivers: County level differences according to material deprivation and urbanicity in the United States

Objectives

This study assessed the association between county level material deprivation and urbanization with fatal road traffic crashes involving young unlicensed drivers in the United States (US).

Background

Road traffic crashes have been positively associated with area deprivation and low population density but thus far few studies have been concerned specifically with young drivers, especially those that are unlicensed.

Methods

A county material deprivation index was derived from the Townsend Material Deprivation Index, with variables extracted from the US Census (2000). An urbanicity scale was adapted from the US Department of Agriculture's Rural–Urban Continuum Codes (2003). Data on fatal crashes involving a young unlicensed driver during a seven-year period (2000–2006; n = 3059) were extracted from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System. The effect of deprivation and urbanicity on the odds of the occurrence of at least one fatal crash at the county level was modeled by conditional and unconditional logistic regression.

Results

The conditional model found a positive association between material deprivation and a fatal crash involving a young unlicensed driver (OR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.17, 1.21). The interaction between urbanicity and material deprivation was negatively associated in suburban counties for fatal crashes (OR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.90, 0.95).

Conclusions

An association with material deprivation and the likelihood of a fatal crash involving a young unlicensed driver is a new finding. It can be used to inform specific county-level interventions and promote state licensing policies to provide equity in young people's mobility regardless of where they live.     

On-road bicycle facilities and bicycle crashes in Iowa, 2007–2010

Purpose

An average of 611 deaths and over 47,000 bicyclists are injured in traffic-related crashes in the United States each year. Efforts to increase bicycle safety are needed to reduce and prevent injuries and fatalities, especially as trends indicate that ridership is increasing rapidly. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of bicycle-specific roadway facilities (e.g., signage and bicycle lanes) in reducing bicycle crashes.

Methods

We conducted a case site-control site study of 147 bicycle crash-sites identified from the Iowa Department of Transportation crash database from 2007 to 2010 and 147 matched non-crash sites. Control sites were randomly selected from intersections matched to case sites on neighborhood (census block group) and road classification (arterial, feeder, collector, etc.). We examined crash risk by any on-road bicycle facility present and by facility type (pavement markings--bicycle lanes and shared lane arrows, bicycle-specific signage, and the combination of markings and signage), controlling for bicycle volume, motor vehicle volume, street width, sidewalks, and traffic controls.

Results

A total of 11.6% of case sites and 15.0% of controls had an on-road bicycle facility. Case intersections had higher bicycle volume (3.52 vs. 3.34 per 30 min) and motor vehicle volume (248.77 vs. 205.76 per 30 min) than controls. Our results are suggestive that the presence of an on-road bicycle facility decreases crash risk by as much as 60% with a bicycle lane or shared lane arrow (OR = 0.40, 95% CI = 0.09–1.82) and 38% with bicycle-specific signage (OR = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.15–2.58).

Conclusions

Investments in bicycle-specific pavement markings and signage have been shown to be beneficial to traffic flow, and our results suggest that they may also reduce the number of bicycle-motor vehicle crashes and subsequent injuries and fatalities. As a relatively low-cost traffic feature, community considerations for further implementation of these facilities are justified.     

The effect of the learner license Graduated Driver Licensing components on teen drivers’ crashes

Background

Most studies evaluating the effectiveness of Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) have focused on the overall system. Studies examining individual components have rarely accounted for the confounding of multiple, simultaneously implemented components. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the effects of a required learner license duration and required hours of supervised driving on teen driver fatal crashes.

Methods

States that introduced a single GDL component independent of any other during the period 1990–2009 were identified. Monthly and quarterly fatal crash rates per 100,000 population of 16- and 17-year-old drivers were analyzed using single-state time series analysis, adjusting for adult crash rates and gasoline prices. Using the parameter estimates from each state's time series model, the pooled effect of each GDL component on 16- and 17-year-old drivers’ fatal crashes was estimated using a random effects meta-analytic model to combine findings across states.

Results

In three states, a six-month minimum learner license duration was associated with a significant decline in combined 16- and 17-year-old drivers’ fatal crash rates. The pooled effect of the minimum learner license duration across all states in the sample was associated with a significant change in combined 16- and 17-year-old driver fatal crash rates of −.07 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] −.11, −.03). Following the introduction of 30 h of required supervised driving in one state, novice drivers’ fatal crash rates increased 35%. The pooled effect across all states in the study sample of having a supervised driving hour requirement was not significantly different from zero (.04, 95% CI −.15, .22).

Conclusion

These findings suggest that a learner license duration of at least six-months may be necessary to achieve a significant decline in teen drivers’ fatal crash rates. Evidence of the effect of required hours of supervised driving on teen drivers’ fatal crash rates was mixed.     

Crash fatality risk and unibody versus body-on-frame structure in SUVs

Background

In crashes between cars and SUVs, car occupants are more likely to be killed than if they crashed with another car. An increasing proportion of SUVs are built with unibody, rather than truck-like body-on-frame construction. Unibody SUVs are generally lighter, less stiff, and less likely to roll over than body-on-frame SUVs, but whether unibody structure affects risk of death in crashes is unknown.

Objective

To determine whether unibody SUVs differ from body-on-frame SUVs in the danger they pose to occupants of other vehicles and in the self-protection they offer to their own occupants.

Methods

Case–control study of crashes between one compact SUV and one other passenger vehicle in the US during 1995–2008, in which the SUV was model year 1996–2006. Cases were all decedents in fatal crashes, one control was selected from each non-fatal crash.

Findings

Occupants of passenger vehicles that crashed with compact unibody SUVs were at 18% lower risk of death compared to those that crashed with compact body-on-frame SUVs (adjusted odds ratio 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.73–0.94)). Occupants of compact unibody SUVs were also at lower risk of death compared to occupants of body-on-frame SUVs (0.86 (0.72–1.02)).

Conclusions

In two-vehicle collisions involving compact SUVs, unibody structure was associated with lower risk of death both in occupants of other vehicles in the crash, and in SUVs’ own occupants.     

Not just a rural occurrence: Differences in agricultural equipment crash characteristics by rural–urban crash site and proximity to town

Purpose

Although approximately one-third of agricultural equipment-related crashes occur near town, these crashes are thought to be a rural problem. This analysis examines differences between agricultural equipment-related crashes by their urban–rural distribution and distance from a town.

Methods

Agricultural equipment crashes were collected from nine Midwest Departments of Transportation (2005–2008). Crash zip code was assigned as urban or rural (large, small and isolated) using Rural–Urban Commuting Areas. Crash proximity to a town was estimated with ArcGIS. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of crashing in an urban versus rural zip codes and across rural gradients. ANOVA analysis estimated mean distance (miles) from a crash site to a town.

Findings

Over four years, 4444 crashes involved agricultural equipment. About 30% of crashes occurred in urban zip codes. Urban crashes were more likely to be non-collisions (aOR = 1.69[1.24–2.30]), involve ≥2 vehicles (2 vehicles: aOR = 1.58[1.14–2.20], 3+ vehicles: aOR = 1.68[0.98–2.88]), occur in a town (aOR = 2.06[1.73–2.45]) and within one mile of a town (aOR = 1.65[1.40–1.95]) than rural crashes. The proportion of crashes within a town differed significantly across rural gradients (P < 0.0001). Small rural crashes, compared to isolated rural crashes, were 1.98 (95%CI[1.28–3.06]) times more likely to be non-collisions. The distance from the crash to town differed significantly by the urban-rural distribution (P < 0.0001).

Conclusions

Crashes with agricultural equipment are unexpectedly common in urban areas and near towns and cities. Education among all roadway users, increased visibility of agricultural equipment and the development of complete rural roads are needed to increase road safety and prevent agricultural equipment-related crashes.     

Will the light truck bumper height-matching standard reduce deaths in cars?

Background

In a collision between a car and a sport utility vehicle (SUV) or pickup truck, car occupants are more likely to be killed than if they crashed with another car. Some of the excess risk may be due to the propensity of SUVs and pickups with high bumpers to override the lower bumpers in cars. To reduce this incompatibility, particularly in head-on collisions, in 2003 automobile manufacturers voluntarily established a bumper height-matching standard for pickups and SUVs.

Objective

To assess whether height-matching bumpers in pickups and SUVs were associated with the risk of death in either car occupants or pickup and SUV occupants.

Methods

Case–control study of collisions between one car and one SUV or pickup in the US during 2000–2008, in which the SUV or pickup was model year 2000–2006. Cases were all decedents in fatal crashes; one control was selected from each crash in a national probability sample of crashes.

Findings

Occupants of cars that crashed with SUVs or pickups with height-matching bumpers may be at slightly reduced risk of death compared to those that crashed with other SUVs or pickups (adjusted odds ratio: 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.61–1.13)). There was no evidence of a reduction in risk in head-on crashes (1.09 (0.66–1.79)). In crashes in which the SUV or pickup struck the car on the side, height-matched bumpers were associated with a reduced risk of death (0.68 (0.48–0.97)). Occupants of SUVs and pickups with height-matching bumpers may also be at slightly reduced risk of death (0.91 (0.64–1.28)).

Conclusions

Height-matching bumpers were associated with a reduced risk of death among car occupants in crashes in which SUVs or pickups struck cars in the side, but there was little evidence of an effect in head-on crashes. The new bumper height-matching standard may not achieve its primary goal of reducing deaths in head-on crashes, but may modestly reduce overall deaths in crashes between cars and SUVs or pickups because of unanticipated benefits to car occupants in side crashes, and a possible beneficial effect to SUV and pickup occupants.     

Comparing the effects of age,BMI and gender on severe injury (AIS 3+) in motor-vehicle crashes

Background

The effects of age, body mass index (BMI) and gender on motor vehicle crash (MVC) injuries are not well understood and current prevention efforts do not effectively address variability in occupant characteristics.

Objectives

(1) Characterize the effects of age, BMI and gender on serious-to-fatal MVC injury. (2) Identify the crash modes and body regions where the effects of occupant characteristics on the numbers of occupants with injury is largest, and thereby aid in prioritizing the need for human surrogates that represent different types of occupant characteristics and adaptive restraint systems that consider these characteristics.

Methods

Multivariate logistic regression was used to model the effects of occupant characteristics (age, BMI, gender), vehicle and crash characteristics on serious-to-fatal injuries (AIS 3+) by body region and crash mode using the 2000–2010 National Automotive Sampling System (NASS-CDS) dataset. Logistic regression models were applied to weighted crash data to estimate the change in the number of annual injured occupants with AIS 3+ injury that would occur if occupant characteristics were limited to their 5th percentiles (age ≤ 17 years old, BMI ≤ 19 kg/m²) or male gender.

Results

Limiting age was associated with a decrease in the total number of occupants with head [8396, 95% CI 6871–9070] and thorax injuries [17,961, 95% CI 15,960–18,859] across all crash modes, decreased occupants with spine [3843, 95% CI 3065–4242] and upper extremity [3578, 95% CI 1402–4439] injuries in frontal and rollover crashes and decreased abdominal [1368, 95% CI 1062–1417] and lower extremity [4584, 95% CI 4012–4995] injuries in frontal impacts. The age effect was modulated by gender with older females more likely to have thorax and upper extremity injuries than older males. Limiting BMI was associated with 2069 [95% CI 1107–2775] fewer thorax injuries in nearside crashes, and 5304 [95% CI 4279–5688] fewer lower extremity injuries in frontal crashes. Setting gender to male resulted in fewer occupants with head injuries in farside crashes [1999, 95% CI 844–2685] and fewer thorax [5618, 95% CI 4212–6272], upper [3804, 95% CI 1781–4803] and lower extremity [2791, 95% CI 2216–3256] injuries in frontal crashes. Results indicate that age provides the greater relative contribution to injury when compared to gender and BMI, especially for thorax and head injuries.

Conclusions

Restraint systems that account for the differential injury risks associated with age, BMI and gender could have a meaningful effect on injury in motor-vehicle crashes. Computational models of humans that represent older, high BMI, and female occupants are needed for use in simulations of particular types of crashes to develop these restraint systems.