Huge variation in Russian mortality rates 1984-94: artefact, alcohol, or what?

BACKGROUND: According to published data, between 1984 and 1994 mortality rates in Russia initially underwent a rapid decline followed by an even steeper increase. In 1994, male life expectancy at birth was 57.6 years, having fallen by 6.2 years since 1990. There has been concern that such striking fluctuations in mortality are an artefact, although, among other factors, alcohol consumption has been implicated. METHODS: We analysed the age-specific and cause-specific patterns of mortality decrease and increase by use of data from a newly reconstructed mortality series for Russia so that we could examine the plausibility of various explanations for the mortality trends. FINDINGS: All major causes of death, with the exception of neoplasms, showed declines in mortality between 1984 and 1987 and increases between 1987 and 1994. In relative terms, these tended to be largest for the age-group 40-50 years; surprisingly, they were of the same magnitude among women and men. The largest declines and subsequent increases in proportional terms were observed for alcohol-related deaths and accidents and violence. However, pronounced effects were also seen for deaths from infections, circulatory disease, and respiratory disease. No substantial variations were seen for neoplasms. INTERPRETATION: The stability of mortality from neoplasms in contrast to other causes over the period 1984-94 largely precludes the possibility that the changes in life expectancy are mainly an artefact, particularly one due to underestimation of the population. Although factors such as nutrition and health services may be involved, the evidence is that substantial changes in alcohol consumption over the period could plausibly explain the main features of the mortality fluctuations observed. These results provide a major challenge to public health in Russia and to our understanding of the determinants of alcohol consumption and its role in explaining mortality patterns within and between many other countries.     

The recent decline in mortality from coronary heart disease, 1980-1990. The effect of secular trends in risk factors and treatment

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether secular trends in risk factor levels and improvements in treatment can account for the observed decline in coronary heart disease mortality in the United States from 1980 to 1990 and to analyze the proportional contribution of these changes. DATA SOURCES: Literature review, US statistics, health surveys, and ongoing clinical trials. STUDY SELECTION: Data representative of the US situation nationwide reported in adequate detail. DATA EXTRACTION: A computer-simulation state-transition model of the US population between the ages of 35 and 84 years was developed to forecast coronary mortality. The input variables were estimated such that the combination of values led to an adequate agreement with reported coronary mortality figures. Subsequently, secular trends were modeled. DATA SYNTHESIS: Actual coronary mortality in 1990 was 34% (127,000 deaths) lower than would be predicted if risk factor levels, case-fatality rates, and event rates in those with and without coronary disease remained the same as in 1980. When secular changes in these factors were included in the model, predicted coronary mortality in 1990 was within 3% (10,000 deaths) of the observed mortality and explained 92% of the decline; only 25% of the decline was explained by primary prevention, while 29% was explained by secondary reduction in risk factors in patients with coronary disease and 43% by other improvements in treatment in patients with coronary disease. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that primary and secondary risk factor reductions explain about 50% of the striking decline in coronary mortality in the United States between 1980 and 1990 but that more than 70% of the overall decline in mortality has occurred among patients with coronary disease.     

What happened to life expectancy in Spain in the 1980s?

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy at birth in Spain improved between 1972 and 1982, by 2.5 years for males and 3.2 years for females. This slowed considerably in the following decade, with increases of only 0.5 and 1.7 years respectively. OBJECTIVE: To determine the causes of death that have been responsible for the failure by Spain to maintain in the 1980s and 1990s the rate of improvement in life expectancy seen during the 1970s. DESIGN: Data from WHO mortality tapes grouped in a series of clinically meaningful categories were used to calculate the contribution of each category, in five year age groups, to the changing life expectancy at birth in the two periods. SETTING: Spain. RESULTS: The trend in life expectancy at birth in Spain over this 20 year period can be considered to have two components, both with important consequences for public health policy. Underlying trends include a steady negative contribution from respiratory cancer in men and a reduction in cardiovascular disease. More recent trends include a considerable deterioration in deaths among young adults, most notably from accidents and, possibly, AIDS. CONCLUSION: The failure to maintain the rate of earlier gains in life expectancy in Spain can be attributed largely to a few conditions, although these may indicate less obvious underlying problems. These findings have important consequences for prioritising public health policies.     

Use of leukocyte depletion to decrease injury after lung preservation and rewarming ischemia: an experimental model

The New York City neighborhood of Harlem has mortality rates that are among the highest in the United States. In absolute numbers, cardiovascular disease and cancer account for the overwhelming majority of deaths, especially among men, and these deaths occur at relatively young ages. The aim of this research was to examine self-reported smoking habits according to measures of socioeconomic status among Harlem men and women, in order to estimate the contribution of tobacco consumption to Harlem's remarkably high excess mortality. During 1992-1994, in-person interviews were conducted among 695 Harlem adults aged 18-65 years who were randomly selected from dwelling unit enumeration lists. The self-reported prevalence of current smoking was strikingly high among both men (48%) and women (41%), even among highly educated men (38%). The 21% of respondents without working telephones reported an even higher prevalence of current smoking (61%), indicating that national and state-based estimates which rely on telephone surveys may seriously underestimate the prevalence of smoking in poor urban communities. Among persons aged 35-64 years, the smoking attributable fractions for selected causes of death were larger in Harlem than in either New York City as a whole or the entire United States for both men and women. Tobacco consumption is likely to be one of several important mediators of the high numbers of premature deaths in Harlem.     

Observations of the treatment of women in the United States with myocardial infarction: a report from the National Registry of Myocardial Infarction-I

BACKGROUND: To determine whether there are sex differences in the demographics, treatment, and outcome of patients with acute myocardial infarction in the United States, data from the National Registry of Myocardial Infarction-I from September 1990 to September 1994 were examined. METHODS: The National Registry of Myocardial Infarction-I is a national observational database consisting of 1234 US hospitals in which each hospital submits data from each patient with acute myocardial infarction to a central data collection center. For these analyses, the following variables were examined in 354 435 patients with acute myocardial infarction: demographics; use of medical therapy including thrombolytic agents; use of procedures including cardiac catheterization, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty, and coronary artery bypass surgery; length of hospital stay; adverse events (stroke, major bleeding, or recurrent myocardial infarction); and causes of death. RESULTS: In comparison with men, women experiencing acute myocardial infarction in the United States are older, with 55.7% older than 70 years. Women have a higher mortality rate than men even when controlled for age and die less often from arrhythmia but more often from cardiac rupture whether or not thrombolytic therapy is used. Treatment with aspirin, heparin, or beta-blockers is less frequent in women. When thrombolytic therapy is used, women are treated an average of almost 14 minutes later than men and experience a greater incidence of major bleeding. Cardiac catheterization, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty, and coronary artery bypass surgery are used less often in women. CONCLUSIONS: Observations from the National Registry of Myocardial Infarction-I document important sex differences in demographics, treatment, and outcome of patients with acute myocardial infarction in the United States.     

Impact of human immunodeficiency virus infection on mortality among young men and women in Spain

BACKGROUND: This paper describes the impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) mortality among young adults in Spain with specific reference to other causes of death. METHODS: Based on death registration data for the period 1980-1993, HIV/AIDS was compared against all other causes of death by gender, using specific rates in the 25-44 age group and standardized rates for potential years of life lost (PYLL). RESULTS: In 1993, HIV/AIDS was the leading cause of death among men aged 25-44 years (21.8% of all deaths) and the second leading cause of death among women (14.9%), exceeded only by cancer. Since 1982, the trend in the overall standardized mortality rate for men in the 25-44 age group has been reversed, showing a progressive increase. Similarly, since 1984 there has been a halt in the decline in female mortality. For both sexes, maintenance of these trends in mortality was largely ascribable to the effect of HIV/AIDS deaths which registered a marked rise, a rise far sharper than that witnessed for variations in all other causes studied. In 1993, the adjusted PYLL rate for HIV/AIDS for ages 1-70 rose to 615 per 100,000 population in men and 156 in women. These values accounted for 9.2% and 5.8% of PYLL for all causes, thereby ranking HIV/AIDS behind motor vehicle accidents as the second leading cause of premature death in men, and behind motor vehicle accidents and breast cancer as the third leading cause in women. For both sexes, the rise in the PYLL rate for HIV/AIDS from 1992 to 1993 proved far greater than that for all other causes of death. CONCLUSION: In Spain, HIV/AIDS has become the leading cause of death among young adults and is counteracting improvements in mortality due to other causes. It should therefore be regarded as a priority public health problem.     

Mortality associated with HIV-1 infection over five years in a rural Ugandan population: cohort study

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of HIV-1 infection on mortality over five years in a rural Ugandan population. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study followed up annually by a house to house census and medical survey. SETTING: Rural population in south west Uganda. SUBJECTS: About 10,000 people from 15 villages who were enrolled in 1989-90 or later. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of deaths from all causes, death rates, mortality fraction attributable to HIV-1 infection. RESULTS: Of 9777 people resident in the study area in 1989-90, 8833 (90%) had an unambiguous result on testing for HIV-1 antibody; throughout the period of follow up adult seroprevalence was about 8%. During 35,083 person years of follow up, 459 deaths occurred, 273 in seronegative subjects and 186 in seropositive subjects, corresponding to standardised death rates of 8.1 and 129.3 per 1000 person years. Standardised death rates for adults were 10.4 (95% confidence interval 9.0 to 11.8) and 114.0 (93.2 to 134.8) per 1000 person years respectively. The mortality fraction attributable to HIV-1 infection was 41% for adults and was in excess of 70% for men aged 25-44 and women aged 20-44 years. Median survival from time of enrollment was less than three years in subjects aged 55 years or more who were infected with HIV-1. Life expectancy from birth in the total population resident at any time was estimated to be 42.5 years (41.4 years in men; 43.5 years in women), which compares with 58.3 years (56.5 years in men; 60.5 years in women) in people known to be seronegative. CONCLUSIONS: These data confirm that in a rural African population HIV-1 infection is associated with high death rates and a substantial reduction in life expectancy.     

Long-term cost and life-expectancy consequences of hypertension

OBJECTIVE: To estimate hypertension's long-term cost and impact on life expectancy. DESIGN: A 19-year individual follow-up study. Subjects were categorized according to their baseline (1972) diastolic blood pressure (DBP) level into three groups: normotensive (DBP < 95 mmHg), mildly hypertensive (DBP 95-104 mmHg), and severely hypertensive (DBP > 104 mmHg). By using their social security identification numbers, we linked the subjects to a set of national registers covering hospital admissions, use of major drugs, absence due to sickness, disability pensions, and deaths. SUBJECTS: A random population sample of 10 284 men and women aged 25-59 years from the provinces of Kuopio and North Karelia in eastern Finland. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The numbers of years of life and years of work lost, the cost of drugs and hospitalization, and the value of productivity lost due to disability and premature mortality. RESULTS: The difference in life expectancy between normotensive and severely hypertensive men was 2.7 years, of which 2.0 years was due to cardiovascular disease (CVD). Among women the corresponding differences were 2.0 and 1.5 years. Severely hypertensive men lost 2.6 years of work more than did normotensive men, of which 1.7 years was due to CVD. Among women the differences were 2.2 and 1.3 years. The mean undiscounted total costs (USA dollars at 1992 prices) were $132 500 among normotensive, $146 500 among mildly hypertensive, and $219 300 among severely hypertensive men, of which CVD accounted for 28, 39, and 43%, respectively. More than 90% of the total costs were indirect productivity losses. Among women the total costs were lower for all DBP categories, as were the shares of CVD-related costs. The proportional increase in costs on going from the lowest to the highest DBP category was, however, somewhat larger among women. CONCLUSIONS: On the population level, severe hypertension leads to considerable losses in terms of years of life lost, years of work lost, and costs. However, the overall impact of mild hypertension is much more limited.     

Opposing national stroke mortality trends in Poland and for African Americans and whites in the United States, 1968 to 1994

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The United States (US) has experienced declines in stroke mortality in contrast to the increases reported for Poland. As part of the Poland and US Agreement on Cardiovascular and Cardiopulmonary Research, stroke mortality trends in Polish and US subpopulations were compared in the context of cross-population differences in competing causes of death and determinants of stroke. METHODS: Age-adjusted annual stroke, cardiovascular disease (CVD), non-CVD, and all-cause mortality rates were determined for men and women aged 35 to 64 and 65 to 74 years from 1968 to 1994 for African Americans and US whites and in Poland. Mean annual percent changes of mortality rates were estimated during 1968 to 1980 and 1981 to 1994 with the use of piecewise log-linear regression. RESULTS: US stroke mortality rates declined 3.7% to 4.8% annually during 1968 to 1980 and 2.0% to 3.1% during 1981 to 1994, with similar declines in each ethnic, gender, and age group. Polish rates increased 3.3% to 5.5% annually for all age-gender groups in Poland during 1968 to 1980. Polish men aged 35 to 64 experienced increasing rates during 1981 to 1994 (1.6% annually), while Polish women and older men experienced slight declines or little change. Only Polish men aged 35 to 64 years exhibited increases in stroke, CVD, and non-CVD mortality rates during both time intervals. CONCLUSIONS: Poland and the US experienced opposing stroke mortality rate trends between 1968 and 1994. These national and ethnic trends occurring in just one generation suggest major effects of lifestyle, socioenvironmental, and/or medical care determinants.     

Interferon-alpha therapy for hepatitis C virus recurrence after liver transplantation: long-term response with maintenance therapy

This paper considers the contributions by age of the various major groups of deaths to the increase in life expectancy at birth between 1980 and 1990 for both sexes in Singapore. Sixteen cause groups were used in the study. The data were analysed using LIFETIME, a personal computer package with a wide variety of methods for mortality investigations. Respiratory diseases made the largest contribution to the increase in life expectancy for both sexes. In contrast, ischaemic heart disease made a negative contribution of 1% in the gain in female life expectancy but contributed 12% improvement for males. Life tables for Singaporean males and females in the year 2000 were projected by extrapolating the mortality trends observed in earlier periods. The calculations show that the life expectancy at birth in the year 2000 to be 74.72 years for males and 79.48 years for females.     

Lifetime risk of dementia and Alzheimer's disease. The impact of mortality on risk estimates in the Framingham Study

We estimated the remaining lifetime risks of developing Alzheimer's disease (AD) and dementia from all causes, based on data from longitudinal population studies. The risk of developing AD during one's lifetime depends on both disease incidence and life expectancy. Conventional estimates of cumulative incidence overestimate the risk when there is a substantial probability of mortality due to competing causes. A total of 2,611 cognitively intact subjects (1,061 men, 1,550 women; mean age, 66 +/- 7 years) were prospectively evaluated for the development of AD or other dementia. A modified survival analysis was used to estimate both cumulative incidence and the sex-specific remaining lifetime risk estimates for quinquennial age groups above age 65 years. Over a 20-year follow-up period, 198 subjects developed dementia (120 with AD). The remaining lifetime risk of AD or other dementia depended on sex, being higher in women, but varied little with age between 65 and 80 years. In a 65-year-old man, the remaining lifetime risk of AD was 6.3% (95% CI, 3.9 to 8.7) and the remaining lifetime risk of developing any dementing illness was 10.9% (95% CI, 8.0 to 13.8); corresponding risks for a 65-year-old woman were 12% (95% CI, 9.2 to 14.8) and 19% (95% CI, 17.2 to 22.5). The cumulative incidence between age 65 and 100 years was much higher: for AD, 25.5% in men and 28.1% in women; for dementia, 32.8% in men and 45% in women. The actual remaining lifetime risk of AD or dementia varies with age, sex, and life expectancy and is lower than the hypothetical risk estimated by a cumulative incidence in the same population.     

The main causes of death in Spain, 1992; comment

BACKGROUND: To study the mortality from the leading causes of death in Spain in 1992 and trends since 1980. POPULATION AND METHOD: The number of deaths was obtained from mortality statistics. We included the 12 causes with the highest mortality rates in 1992 and calculated for each cause of death the age adjusted mortality rates for each year in the study period, the percent change from 1990 to 1992 and from 1980 to 1992, and the adjusted ratio of rates between men and women in 1992. RESULTS: The leading causes of death in 1992 were malignant neoplasms, with 24.3% of deaths and a mortality rate of 205.6 per 100,000 population; diseases of the heart, with 22.6% and a rate of 191.8 per 100,000; and cerebrovascular disease, with 12.7% and a rate of 107.6 per 100,000 population. Between 1980 and 1992 the adjusted mortality rate increased for four causes of death: malignant neoplasms; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and similar diseases; nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis; and suicide. From 1990 to 1992, the adjusted mortality rate declined for all other causes of death. From 1990 to 1992, the adjusted mortality rate declined for all causes of death except for malignant neoplasms and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, which rose 0.4% and 69%, respectively. The adjusted mortality rate was higher in men than in women for all causes of death except for diabetes mellitus and atherosclerosis. CONCLUSIONS: Except for malignant neoplasms and HIV infection, mortality from all other leading causes of death declined in 1992 with respect to 1990, independently of the trend experienced by each cause of death in the eighties.     

Abortion surveillance--United States, 1995

CONDITION: Since 1990 (i.e., the year in which the number of abortions was highest), the annual number of abortions in the United States has decreased by 15%. REPORTING PERIOD COVERED: This report summarizes and reviews information reported to CDC regarding legal induced abortions obtained in the United States during 1995. DESCRIPTION OF SYSTEM: For each year since 1969, CDC has compiled abortion data received from 52 reporting areas: 50 states, the District of Columbia, and New York City. RESULTS: In 1995, a total of 1,210,883 legal abortions were reported to CDC, representing a 4.5% decrease from the number reported for 1994. The abortion ratio was 311 legal induced abortions per 1,000 live births, and the abortion rate was 20 per 1,000 women aged 15-44 years, the lowest ratio and rate recorded since 1975. Women who were undergoing an abortion were more likely to be young, white, and unmarried; most were obtaining an abortion for the first time. Approximately half of all abortions (54%) were performed at < or =8 weeks of gestation, and approximately 88% were performed before 13 weeks. Approximately 16% of abortions were performed at the earliest weeks of gestation (< or =6 weeks), approximately 17% at 7 weeks of gestation, and approximately 21% at 8 weeks of gestation. Few abortions were provided after 15 weeks of gestation -- approximately 4% of abortions were obtained at 16-20 weeks, and 1.4% were obtained at > or =21 weeks. Younger women (i.e., women aged < or =24 years) were more likely to obtain abortions later in pregnancy than were older women. INTERPRETATION: Since 1990, the number of abortions has declined each year. Since 1987, the abortion-to-live-birth ratio has declined; in 1995, it was the lowest recorded since 1975. This decrease in the abortion ratio reflects a trend that a lower proportion of pregnant women obtain induced abortion. ACTIONS TAKEN: The number and characteristics of women who obtain abortions in the United States should continue to be monitored so that trends in induced abortion can be assessed, efforts to prevent unintended pregnancy can be evaluated, and the preventable causes of morbidity and mortality associated with abortions can be identified and reduced.     

Forty years of evolution of mortality in Belgium and The Netherlands

Age adjusted mortality in Belgium (B) and The Netherlands (NL) was calculated from 5 yearly age-specific death rates between the ages 45-74 and 75-85+ years. Mortality was available in Belgium from 1954 to 1991 or 1994 (depending on the cause of death) and from 1950 to 1993 in The Netherlands. In the 45-74 years age class all-cause mortality decreased in B between 1955 and 1992 with 33% in men and 48% in women. In NL this was 11% and 40%, respectively. In the age class 75-85+ it was 21% and 37% in B, and 4% and 36% in NL, respectively. Since 1980 to the last available year there was a marked decrease in mortality in the age class 75-85+ years in men and women from B and no change in NL. Wallonia always had the highest mortality, followed by B, Flanders and NL. However, recently the observed mortality in Flanders was the lowest. Mortality trends, in both age classes and sexes, were obtained between 1980 to the last available year for 11 causes of death in men and 13 in women. Among 48 possible comparisons, 38 (79%) were in favor of B, 9 in favor of NL and 1 ex aequo. Life expectancy in 1992 was compared in the 15 EU countries. For both sexes together B ranked 8th, NL 3rd. The difference in life expectancy between the two countries was 3 year in 1967 and 1 year in 1992. Flanders ranked 5th (0.3 year lower than NL) and Wallonia 14th (2.2 years lower) when substituted for B in the EU. Portugal had the best and Denmark had the worst results between 1967 and 1992). Changes in life style-fat, salt, fruit and vegetable intake and smoking habits -which occurred since 1960 in B, its regions and in NI are consistent with the changes in mortality and life expectancy. Curative medicine and medical technology cannot explain the observed differences and trends.     

Age-period-cohort effects on ischaemic heart disease mortality in Sweden from 1969 to 1993, and forecasts up to 2003

AIMS: Mortality from ischaemic heart disease has been decreasing in most industrialized countries since the 1960s. The aim of this study was to analyse ischaemic heart disease mortality during 1969-1993 in Sweden, and to predict mortality trends until 2003. METHODS AND RESULTS: Age-period cohort models were used to analyse ischaemic heart disease mortality in Sweden between 1969 and 1993, and to predict age-specific death rates and total number of deaths for the periods 1994-1998 and 1999-2003. Mortality rates in the age group 25-89 years decreased from 719 to 487 per 100,000 for men, and from 402 to 215 per 100,000 for women over the study period (average annual decrease of 1.5% for men and 2.2% for women). The decline started earlier for women than for men. The ratio of age-adjusted mortality between men and women increased steadily over the study period. Predictions based on the full age-period cohort model for the period 1999-2003 gave mortality rates of 346 and 155 per 100,000 for men and women, respectively. Despite the ageing of the population, the total numbers of ischaemic heart disease deaths in Sweden are predicted to decline by approximately 25% in both men and women from 1989-93 to 1999-2003. CONCLUSION: A major decline in ischaemic heart disease mortality has been observed in the last 15 years in Sweden. Both factors, cohort and calendar period, contain information which helps explain the decline in ischaemic heart disease mortality trends in Sweden. Predictions indicate that the decline of both age-specific and total mortality is to continue.     

The incidence of iliac, femoral, and popliteal artery aneurysms in hospitalized patients

PURPOSE: Previous studies have attempted to determine the incidence and mortality rate of abdominal aortic aneurysms in a variety of populations; however, the incidence of iliac, femoral, and popliteal artery aneurysms have not been established. The objective of this study was to determine the incidence of lower extremity aneurysms in hospitalized patients in the state of Utah, which has a population at low risk for cardiovascular disease, atherosclerosis, and smoking, and to compare the results with the incidence in the United States. METHODS: Incidences of iliac, femoral, and popliteal artery aneurysm in Utah were determined over a 6-year period, with data obtained via diagnostic codes from the Utah Hospital Association. The incidence of iliac, femoral, and popliteal artery aneurysms in the United States hospital population was calculated by use of National Hospital Discharge Summary 1990 data, a complex sample of nonfederal short-stay hospitals in the United States, which provides the most comprehensive database of health statistics in the United States. RESULTS: The incidence of iliac femoral/popliteal artery aneurysms in hospitalized Utah men is 3.76 and 4.85 per 100,000 population, respectively. In American men, iliac and femoral/popliteal artery aneurysm incidences are 6.58 and 7.39 per 100,000 population, respectively. Incidences among hospitalized women in Utah are 0.24 and 1.07 per 100,000; incidences in women in the United States are 0.26 and 1.00 per 100,000, respectively. The incidence of nonaortic peripheral aneurysms among hospitalized patients in Utah is lower than in the United States. The rate ratios (Utah/United States) for incidences of iliac, femoral, and popliteal artery aneurysms in men are 0.57 and 0.66, respectively (p < 0.05). No statistical difference is seen between incidences in women in Utah and the United States (p > 0.05)-ratios of 0.93 and 1.06, respectively. CONCLUSION: This study validates the traditional belief that iliac, femoral, and popliteal artery aneurysms are much less frequent, at least in hospitalized patients, than previously published incidences of abdominal aortic aneurysms.     

The effectiveness of ovarian cancer screening. A decision analysis model

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effectiveness of ovarian cancer screening with CA 125 and transvaginal sonography. DESIGN: Decision analysis was used to examine the no-screen compared with the screen strategy. SETTING: Estimates of cancer incidence, survival, and life expectancy were derived from population-based data and clinical series. SUBJECTS: A cohort of 40-year-old women of all races and residing in the United States. INTERVENTIONS: A one-time screening intervention. The criterion standard for diagnosis of ovarian cancer was evaluation with exploratory laparotomy. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Average years of life expectancy gained by women in the screened group. RESULTS: Screening for ovarian cancer with a combination of CA 125 and transvaginal sonography increases the average life expectancy in the population by less than 1 day. CONCLUSIONS: Given the limited effect on overall life expectancy, it is unlikely that mass screening for ovarian cancer with CA 125 and transvaginal sonography would be an effective health policy.     

Why is life expectancy a problem for the Danes? The influence of smoking during the last 50 years

The study quantifies the influence of smoking on mortality in Denmark and computes measures for the individual risk. Mortality due to lung cancer among Danish women is now the highest in Europe. Smoking-attributable deaths among men amounted to 3% in 1945, 26% in 1985, and 25% in 1995; the proportion is lower among women, but is increasing considerably. In 1995 in the age-group 35-69 years such deaths make up the same proportion among men and women. The risk that a 35-year old Dane dies before attaining the age of 70 due to other than smoking-attributable causes has decreased since 1945, most significantly among women. Women have experienced a considerable increase in smoking-attributable mortality over the last 20 years, increasing the total risk of a 35 year-old of dying before reaching the age of 70. In 1995 a little over 13,000 of a total of a little less than 63,000 deaths could be attributed to smoking. Smoking is responsible for a significant part of the adverse development in Danish life expectancy.