基于动态模拟视角与共享社会经济路径的多情景县域可持续发展潜力评价

作为可持续发展的重要主题之一,科学评估县域可持续发展潜力是制定县域发展战略的基础。现有可持续发展潜力评估方法多是基于县域发展现状的多维度综合分析,在体现发展的动态性上仍存在不足。本文构建了面向联合国2030年可持续发展目标的县域可持续发展潜力指标体系,采用系统动力学和FLUS模型对发展潜力指标进行预测,提出了一种结合共享社会经济路径的多情景县域可持续发展潜力评估方法。本文以山东省招远市作为案例区,基于2009—2018年的社会经济以及土地利用数据,通过模拟2030年招远市基准情景、SSP1、SSP2、SSP3、SSP5共5种情景下的县域发展态势,对比评估了实验区可持续发展潜力的差异性。结果表明：(1)经济发展、居民福祉维度的多数指标在所有情景下均呈增长趋势,而生态维度指标则呈显著的下降趋势;(2)相比2018年,SSP1、SSP2情景下县域发展潜力均值分别提升了17.36%、9.80%,而在SSP3、SSP5情景下分别下降了0.50%、4.20%,可见,SSP1情景能够最大限度提升招远市发展可持续性,SSP5则将产生显著的负面影响;(3)招远市未来发展应持续优化SSP1路径,重点关注不...     

MEASUREMENT OF AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES AT COUNTY LEVEL IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

1INTRODUCTIONAgglomeration economies have played important rolesin the growth of regional economies in developed coun-tries, which has been a hot topic of empirical studies fora couple of decades (GLAESER etal., 1992). However,the researches on the relati…     

晋北地区生态环境脆弱性的GIS综合评价

生态环境脆弱性评估可以为退化系统的综合整治提供策略依据。晋北地区作为我国北方农牧交错带的组成部分,在自然和人为因素的综合作用下,表现出脆弱性的特征。本文利用空间主成分分析和层次分析法,结合遥感数据和地理信息系统技术,评价了晋北地区生态环境的脆弱性。结果表明:在自然和人为因素综合作用下,晋北地区生态环境脆弱性呈现不平衡的空间分布特征,东北部重,西南部轻。极度和重度脆弱区主要分布在东北部,占整个研究区面积的33.1%;微度和中度脆弱区主要分布在西南部,占41.9%;轻度脆弱区在整个研究区几乎均有分布,占24.9%。轻度和中度脆弱区占整个研究区面积的55.5%。总体来看,晋北地区大部分区域处于中度和轻度脆弱性水平。自然因素是晋北地区生态环境脆弱性的主导因素,人为因素是其脆弱性变化的关键外在因素。影响晋北地区生态环境脆弱性的自然因素主要有干旱、NDVI、水土流失比率;人为因素主要有土地利用、第二产业占GDP比重、环保投资指数、水资源量。研究结果为晋北地区合理调控人类活动,保护和治理生态环境提供一定的依据。     

山东省东平湖地区生态地质环境脆弱性评价

在阐述山东省东平湖地区地质环境条件的基础上,对东平湖地区存在的生态地质环境问题进行了系统的分析与研究,并对生态地质环境脆弱性进行了分区评价,提出了防治对策建议,为东平湖地区的生态地质环境保护提供了基础性的地质资料。     

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF REGIONAL CONVERGENCE AT COUNTY LEVEL IN JIANGSU

1IN T R O D U C T IO N With therapiddevelopment ofChina's economy ,there- search on regionalconvergence or divergence has at- tracetd a lotof attention(SONG , 1996 ; LUO etal., 2002 ;QIN ,2004 ).At present,the empiricalanalysesare oftenbased on two concep…     

Assessment of waterlogging risk in Lixiahe region of Jiangsu Province based on AVHRR and MODIS image

Four images of 1991 AVHRR, 2003 and 2007 MODIS were used to extract waterlogging inundated water of three years, and three inundated water maps were overlaid to estimate waterlogging affected frequency. Based on waterlogging affected frequency, waterlogging hazard of pixel scale was assessed. According to the weighed score of area percentage of different waterlogging affected frequency in 13 counties/cities of Lixiahe region, waterlogging hazard rank of every county/city was assessed. Waterlogging affected frequency map and 1 km× 1 km grid landuse map were used to assess waterlogging risk of pixel scale; and then waterlogging risk rank of every county/city was assessed by the similar method by which waterlogging hazard rank of every county/city was assessed. High risk region is located mainly in core zone of Lixiahe hinterland, medium risk region is adjacent to high risk region, and low risk region is located in the most outlying area of risk zone and mainly in south to middle part of Lixiahe region. Xinghua and Gaoyou belong to high risk city, Jiangyan belongs to medium risk city, and the other counties/cities have low or lower waterlogging risk. The method of assessing waterlogging risk in this paper is simple and applicable. This paper can provide guidance for the waterlogging risk analysis in broader area of Huaihe River Basin.     

基于DEM的江苏省平原/丘陵分区与制图

在平原微丘区,丘陵、平原界限的确定是地貌图制作的难点.本文首先指出,地貌的多样性和地区差异性决定了地貌分类的量化指标差异性,通过对比实验,制定一套合理、有效的丘陵、平原量化分类标准.在此基础上,以江苏省1:50 000比例尺25 m分辨率DEM为基本数据源,对全省平原、丘陵进行了划分.通过自动制图综合,完成了江苏省地貌类型图制作.实验结果显示,所提出的分类指标简单、实用,该方法大大提高了丘陵岗地划分效率与精度.     

区域生态环境脆弱性的GIS"分解-合成"评价分析——以浑源县为例

以县域为研究对象,从影响生态环境的自然因素、人类干扰因素两个方面出发,确定了包括目标层-准则层-指标层在内的系统化评价指标体系;打破传统的以行政区域为单元分析的模式,通过GIS网格技术和模糊综合评价多属性特征分析,提出了将地理信息系统技术(GIS)和AHP-模糊综合评价模型互相融合,以网格单元进行生态环境脆弱性综合评价...     

江苏省商业网点的空间分布特征及其区域差异因素

以江苏省商业网点POI（兴趣点）数据为基础,结合经济社会统计数据,分别对批发零售业、住宿业和餐饮业三种业态类型,运用标准差椭圆、核密度、最近邻指数以及多元线性回归等分析方法,探讨不同发展水平、发展阶段城市商业网点的空间分布模式和业态结构特征,并揭示其区域差异的影响因素。研究发现：江苏省商业网点总体上具有西北走向分布态势,呈现相对集中分布格局,表现出在长江以南地区集聚和在地级城市中心城区密集布局的特征;不同业态类型网点空间分布具有差异,批发零售业网点的空间集聚特征最显著,住宿业网点的分布相对均衡;各市商业业态结构呈现出批发零售业和餐饮业网点数量为主,以及批发零售业销售额独大的特征;地区生产总值、人口规模、居民人均可支配收入、城市综合可达性以及第三次产业产值比重是影响商业网点分布的重要因素,不同因素对商业网点分布的影响程度差异性较大,居民消费能力和地区发展水平是江苏省商业网点分布差异的主要驱动力。     

Spatial pattern and regional types of rural settlements in Xuzhou City, Jiangsu Province, China

This paper principally focuses on the morphological differences,spatial pattern and regional types of rural settlements in Xuzhou City of Jiangsu Province in China.Using satellite images of Xuzhou City taken in 2007 and 2008 and models of exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA) and spatial metrics,the paper conducts a quantitative analysis of the morphological pattern of rural settlements,and finds significant characteristics.First,rural settlements in Xuzhou City are significantly agglomerated in terms of their spatial distribution;meanwhile,there is significant variation in the geographical density distribution.Second,the scale of rural settlements in Xuzhou City is larger than the average in Jiangsu Province,and the histogram of the scale data is more even and more like a gamma distribution.There are a significant high-value cluster in the scale distribution,and local negative correlation between the scale and density distribution of rural settlements in Xuzhou City.Third,the morphology of rural settlements in Xuzhou City shows relative regularity with good connection and integrity,but the spatial variation of the morphology is anisotropic.Finally,according to the characteristics of density,scale,and form of rural settlements,the rural settlements of Xuzhou City are divided into three types:A high-density and point-scattered type,a low-density and cluster-like type and a mass-like and sparse type.The research findings could be used as the scientific foundation for rural planning and community rebuilding,particularly in less-developed areas.     

江苏省睢宁县农村居民点整理潜力分析及效益评价

农村居民点整理是一项复杂的系统工程,整理潜力分析和效益评价是农村居民点整理项目投资前期工作的中心环节,是项目决策的依据。该文在分析睢宁县农村居民点整理潜力的基础上,对整理后的效益进行分析,为东部经济欠发达地区的农村居民点整理提供了参考。