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1.
The selection of calibration and validation time periods in hydrologic modelling is often done arbitrarily. Nonstationarity can lead to an optimal parameter set for one period which may not accurately simulate another. However, there is still much to be learned about the responses of hydrologic models to nonstationary conditions. We investigated how the selection of calibration and validation periods can influence water balance simulations. We calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrologic models with observed streamflow for three United States watersheds (St. Joseph River of Indiana/Michigan, Escambia River of Florida/Alabama, and Cottonwood Creek of California), using time period splits for calibration/validation. We found that the choice of calibration period (with different patterns of observed streamflow, precipitation, and air temperature) influenced the parameter sets, leading to dissimilar simulations of water balance components. In the Cottonwood Creek watershed, simulations of 50-year mean January streamflow varied by 32%, because of lower winter precipitation and air temperature in earlier calibration periods on calibrated parameters, which impaired the ability for models calibrated to earlier periods to simulate later periods. Peaks of actual evapotranspiration for this watershed also shifted from April to May due to different parameter values depending on the calibration period's winter air temperatures. In the St. Joseph and Escambia River watersheds, adjustments of the runoff curve number parameter could vary by 10.7% and 20.8%, respectively, while 50-year mean monthly surface runoff simulations could vary by 23%–37% and 169%–209%, depending on the observed streamflow and precipitation of the chosen calibration period. It is imperative that calibration and validation time periods are chosen selectively instead of arbitrarily, for instance using change point detection methods, and that the calibration periods are appropriate for the goals of the study, considering possible broad effects of nonstationary time series on water balance simulations. It is also crucial that the hydrologic modelling community improves existing calibration and validation practices to better include nonstationary processes.  相似文献   

2.
Modelled hydrologic processes are represented in a set of numerical equations; the complexity of which can be measured by the total number of variables needed. A single dominant hydrologic process could control the hydrologic response of a watershed, and so the identification of the corresponding dominant variable(s) would aid in identifying a parsimonious model and in collecting more reliable data. By accounting for both model complexity and serial correlation in the variables, a model is used to identify the dominant variables for representing watershed scale streamflow, sediment transport and phosphorus yields. Long‐term water quantity and quality data were used to show that rainfall and non‐linear soil water storage were the dominant variables for weekly streamflow, suspended sediment and particulate phosphorus. Model accuracy did not consistently improve when other statistically significant variables were included. The results suggest that improved model performance may not justify the added model complexity. As such, identification of dominant variables would be the priority for developing parsimonious hydrologic models, especially at watershed scales. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Geochemical and isotopic tracers were often used in mixing models to estimate glacier melt contributions to streamflow, whereas the spatio‐temporal variability in the glacier melt tracer signature and its influence on tracer‐based hydrograph separation results received less attention. We present novel tracer data from a high‐elevation catchment (17 km2, glacierized area: 34%) in the Oetztal Alps (Austria) and investigated the spatial, as well as the subdaily to monthly tracer variability of supraglacial meltwater and the temporal tracer variability of winter baseflow to infer groundwater dynamics. The streamflow tracer variability during winter baseflow conditions was small, and the glacier melt tracer variation was higher, especially at the end of the ablation period. We applied a three‐component mixing model with electrical conductivity and oxygen‐18. Hydrograph separation (groundwater, glacier melt, and rain) was performed for 6 single glacier melt‐induced days (i.e., 6 events) during the ablation period 2016 (July to September). Median fractions (±uncertainty) of groundwater, glacier melt, and rain for the events were estimated at 49±2%, 35±11%, and 16±11%, respectively. Minimum and maximum glacier melt fractions at the subdaily scale ranged between 2±5% and 76±11%, respectively. A sensitivity analysis showed that the intraseasonal glacier melt tracer variability had a marked effect on the estimated glacier melt contribution during events with large glacier melt fractions of streamflow. Intra‐daily and spatial variation of the glacier melt tracer signature played a negligible role in applying the mixing model. The results of this study (a) show the necessity to apply a multiple sampling approach in order to characterize the glacier melt end‐member and (b) reveal the importance of groundwater and rainfall–runoff dynamics in catchments with a glacial flow regime.  相似文献   

4.
A growing body of field, theoretical and numerical modelling studies suggests that predicting river response to even major changes in input variables is difficult. Rivers are seen to adjust rapidly and variably through time and space as well as changing independently of major driving variables. Concepts such as Self‐Organized Criticality (SOC) are considered to better reflect the complex interactions and adjustments occurring in systems than traditional approaches of cause and effect. This study tests the hypothesis that riverbank mass failures which occurred both prior to, and during, an extreme flood event in southeast Queensland (SEQ) in 2011 are a manifestation of SOC. Each wet‐flow failure is somewhat analogous to the ‘avalanche’ described in the initial sand‐pile experiments of Bak et al. (Physical Review Letters, 1987, 59(4), 381–384) and, due to the use of multitemporal LiDAR, the time period of instability can be effectively constrained to that surrounding the flood event. The data is examined with respect to the key factors thought to be significant in evaluating the existence of SOC including; non‐linear temporal dynamics in the occurrence of disturbance events within the system; an inverse power‐law relation between the magnitude and frequency of the events; the existence of a critical state to which the system readjusts after a disturbance; the existence of a cascading processes mechanism by which the same process can initiate both low‐magnitude and high‐magnitude events. While there was a significant change in the frequency of mass failures pre‐ and post‐flood, suggesting non‐linear temporal dynamics in the occurrence of disturbance events, the data did not fit an inverse power‐law within acceptable probability and other models were found to fit the data better. Likewise, determining a single ‘critical’ state is problematic when a variety of feedbacks and multiple modes of adjustment are likely to have operated throughout this high magnitude event. Overall, the extent to which the data supports a self‐organized critical state is variable and highly dependent upon inferential arguments. Investigating the existence of SOC, however, provided results and insights that are useful to the management and future prediction of these features. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
After several years of decreased annual rainfall and water shortages, the Chilean society is demanding that forest plantations take accountability of their role in consuming scarce water resources. Evidence has shown that interception losses are considerable when determining water production in watersheds. The aim of this study was to determine if site and stand variables explain interception losses by Chilean forests for the development of an empirical model that could predict the potential impacts of forest management practices and land‐use change. A total of 127 data from annual water balance plot studies in Chile were compiled to derive relationships between interception and precipitation, species composition, plantation age and other stand and site variables. The reviewed data indicated that annual interception losses are mainly explained by annual rainfall and basal area of the forest stands, with a clear difference between the northern (dryer) and southern (wetter) regions of Chile. For a wide latitudinal gradient, forest composition and age, annual interception accounted for approximately 21% of incoming precipitations. Broadleaved forest stands (including native broadleaved and eucalypt forests) generally presented higher interception losses than conifers. Interception was higher in northern zones, indicating that forests have greater impacts on water resources in dryer regions. Our results were compiled in empirical models, which can be used to estimate forest interception in a latitudinal gradient in Chile and to support policy making. These results are also proposed as an approximate analogue of the changes in forest interception losses, which may occur as vegetation belts shift latitudinally as a result of the impact of climate change. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
7.
Formic acid is the major contributor to acid rain in some regions but its sources are not fully understood. We investigated the aqueous‐phase reactions of HCHO (aq) and OH . radicals at enlarged rainwater pH values (2.49–5.89) in Guiyang, China from May 2006 to April 2007. Our results show that there were no significant correlation between the [HCOOH]t/[HCHO] (aq) and the rainwater pH. The ratio did not appear to vary consistently as a function of rainwater pH as predicted by theoretical model. In addition, we saw no clear evidence that oxidation of HCHO (aq) would produce significant HCOOH (aq) which indicates this reaction may be only a minor contribution to the budget of HCOOH (g) in atmosphere. Further investigation is strongly suggested to be carried out in field cloud water, fog water, or rainwater because the ratios would be diverged from equilibrium value as a result of other chemical or physical processes.  相似文献   

8.
An investigation has been conducted to identify the key parameters that are likely to scale laboratory sediment deposits to the field scale. Two types of bed formation were examined: one where sediment is manually placed and screeded and the second where sediment is fed into a running flume. This later technique created deposits through sequential cycles of sediment transport and deposition. Detailed bed surface topography measurements have been made over a screeded bed and three fed beds. In addition, bulk subsurface porosity and hydraulic conductivity have been measured. By comparing the four beds, results revealed that certain physical properties of the screeded bed were clearly different from those of the fed beds. The screeded bed had a random organization of grains on both the surface and within the subsurface. The fed beds exhibited greater surface and subsurface organization and complexity, and had a number of properties that closely resembled those found for water‐worked gravel beds. The surfaces were water‐worked and armoured and there was preferential particle orientation and direction of imbrication in the subsurface. This suggested that fed beds are able to simulate, in a simplified manner, both the surface and subsurface properties of established gravel‐bed river deposits. The near‐bed flow properties were also compared. It revealed that the use of a screeded bed will typically cause an underestimation in the degree of temporal variability in the flow. Furthermore, time‐averaged streamwise velocities were found to be randomly organized over the screeded bed but were organized into long streamwise flow structures over the fed beds. It clearly showed that caution should be taken when comparing velocity measurements over screeded beds with water‐worked beds, and that the formation of fed beds offers an improved way of investigating intragravel flow and sediment–water interface exchange processes in gravel‐bed rivers at a laboratory scale. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Small inland valley wetlands contribute substantially to the livelihoods of rural communities in East Africa. Their conversion into farmland is driven by water availability. We quantified spatial-temporal dynamics of water availability in a headwater wetland in the humid zone of Kenya. Climatic conditions, soil moisture contents, groundwater levels and discharge data were monitored. A land-use map and a digital elevation model of the valley bottom were created to relate variations in soil moisture to dominant land uses and valley morphology.Upland crops occupied about a third of the wetland area, while approximately a quarter of the wet, central part of the valley bottom was designated for flood-tolerant taro, grown either by itself or in association or in rotation with upland crops. Finally, natural vegetation was found in 3% of the mapped area, mainly in sections with nearpermanent soil saturation.The HBV rainfall-runoff model's overestimation of stream discharge during the long dry season of the hydrological year 2010/2011 can be explained by the strong seasonal impact of water abstraction on the wetland's water balance.Our study vividly demonstrates the necessity of multi-method approaches for assessing the impact of management practices on water availability in valley bottom wetlands in East Africa.  相似文献   

10.
The rural population of parts of northern and western Namibia uses hand dug wells for their domestic water supply, partly because no other source (e.g., deep tube wells) is available, but also as a substitute for pipeline water that is often perceived as being too expensive. The water quality of these wells is usually not monitored or controlled, thus a study has been carried out in four study areas in Namibia: southern Omusati/Oshana area, Okongo/Ohangwena area, Omatjete/Omaruru area, Okanguati/Kunene area. Hand dug wells have been tested for on-site parameters: electric conductivity, pH and temperature while samples were taken for major inorganic constituents and several minor and trace constituents including fluoride and nitrate. In addition a sampling campaign in 2010 included the determination of coliform bacteria and Escherichia coli. Results were classified according to the Namibian Water Guidelines. The constituents making the water unfit for human consumption are fluoride, nitrate, sulphate and total dissolved solids. Contamination by E. coli was indicated in nearly all wells that are used for livestock watering. For the Omatjete/Omaruru study area an isotope based study on the source of nitrate has indicated manure as a source. The range of recharge values obtained for the studied villages ranges from 1 mm/a to locally more than 100 mm/a. Overall the water resource in the shallow perched aquifers in the study areas is in many places inappropriate for human consumption. Treatment to improve the quality or introduction of protection measures is necessary to bring this resource to an acceptable quality according to national and/or international standards.  相似文献   

11.
Coastal and residential development along the Atlantic coast of the United States is expected to increase by about 73% between 1980 and 2000. Present estimates indicate that over 59% of the population of the United States lives within 50 miles of the coast. This increase in coastal population coupled with increased demands for fishery products and increased efficiency in catching fish has severely stressed many Atlantic coast fisheries. Fisheries have been affected by increased pollution, habitat loss and overfishing. In 1976, the Magnuson Fishery Conservation and Management Act was passed creating Fishery Management Councils with the goal of imposing strict conservation measures in the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). This paper discusses potential causes of Atlantic Coast fisheries declines and gives examples of specific fishery plans that have been developed to manage U.S. fisheries.  相似文献   

12.
Fast-growing forest plantations have been expanding in Brazil in the last 50 years, which reach productivities by over 40 m3 ha−1 year−1 in reduced rotation between 5 and 15 years. In the 1990s, environmental warnings about these plantations guided research projects seeking to understand their effects on water and propose forest management actions to minimize them. The assessment of forest management effects on water resources is conducted by long-term experiments in paired catchments. In this paper we present results of some studies conducted at the hydrological monitoring centre of Itatinga Experimental Forest Station, of the University of São Paulo, where hydrological monitoring began in 1987, and currently include three catchments (83–98 ha) under different forest management regimes: short-rotation Eucalyptus plantation, long-term forest plantation mosaic and native forest restoration. Results show that at similar conditions observed at study area including deep soils and good natural water regulation, hydrological effects vary according to the forest management regime adopted, increasing water consumption and making the flow regime vulnerable to intra- and inter-annual seasonality. Regarding water quality, weekly sampling results showed suspended sediments and nitrate concentrations below water quality thresholds criteria by silvicultural operations, and the effects were transient but higher concentrations of nutrients were observed in intensive management regime. In the study area, reducing the management intensity of forest plantation by increasing the rotation time, adopting forest age mosaic and avoiding the coppice technique are alternative choices that reduced water use and increased flow regulation. Different adopted forest management schemes directly affected water use, showing that in water-deficit tropical regions, management regime of fast-growing forest plantations controls water availability.  相似文献   

13.
Gullies are conceptualized in the literature as essentially fluvial forms with dimensional boundaries arbitrarily defined between rills and river channels. This notion is incompatible with the existing variability of form and process, as mass movements frequently exert a fundamental control on gully initiation and expansion, to the point of features outgrowing their original contributing area. The inability of a conceptual framework to incorporate existing observations inevitably constrains methodologies and research results. In this commentary, several examples of published results are contrasted with the prevailing assumption of an essentially fluvial nature, with the purpose of encouraging discussion on the need for a revised conceptual framework in gully erosion research. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Changing high‐mountain environments are characterized by destabilizing ice, rock or debris slopes connected to evolving glacial lakes. Such configurations may lead to potentially devastating sequences of mass movements (process chains or cascades). Computer simulations are supposed to assist in anticipating the possible consequences of such phenomena in order to reduce the losses. The present study explores the potential of the novel computational tool r.avaflow for simulating complex process chains. r.avaflow employs an enhanced version of the Pudasaini ( 2012 ) general two‐phase mass flow model, allowing consideration of the interactions between solid and fluid components of the flow. We back‐calculate an event that occurred in 2012 when a landslide from a moraine slope triggered a multi‐lake outburst flood in the Artizón and Santa Cruz valleys, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, involving four lakes and a substantial amount of entrained debris along the path. The documented and reconstructed flow patterns are reproduced in a largely satisfactory way in the sense of empirical adequacy. However, small variations in the uncertain parameters can fundamentally influence the behaviour of the process chain through threshold effects and positive feedbacks. Forward simulations of possible future cascading events will rely on more comprehensive case and parameter studies, but particularly on the development of appropriate strategies for decision‐making based on uncertain simulation results. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Groundwater levels in steep headwater catchments typically respond quickly to rainfall, but the timing of the response may vary spatially across the catchment. In this study, we investigated the topographic controls and the effects of rainfall and antecedent conditions on the groundwater response timing for 51 groundwater monitoring sites in a 20‐ha pre‐alpine catchment with low permeability soils. The median time to rise and median duration of recession for the 133 rainfall events were highly correlated to the topographic characteristics of the site and its upslope contributing area. The median time to rise depended more on the topographic characteristics than on the rainfall characteristics or antecedent soil wetness conditions. The median time to rise decreased with Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) for sites with TWI < 6 and was almost constant for sites with a higher TWI. The slope of this relation was a function of rainfall intensity. The rainfall threshold for groundwater initiation was also a function of TWI and allowed extrapolation of point measurements to the catchment scale. The median lag time between the rainfall centroid and the groundwater peak was 75 min. The groundwater level peaked before peak streamflow at the catchment outlet for half of the groundwater monitoring sites, but only by 15 to 25 min. The stronger correlations between topographic indices and groundwater response timing in this study compared to previous studies suggest that surface topography affects the groundwater response timing in catchments with low permeability soils more than in catchments with more transmissive soils. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
17.
Morphological change in river channels is frequently evaluated in the context of mass balance sediment budgets. In a closed sediment budget, measurements of sediment influx and efflux are coupled with measured changes in channel topography to provide both spatial and temporal resolution, and independent estimates of the mass balance. For sediment budgets constructed over long river segments (~102 channel widths or greater) and long periods (~2 years or longer), spatial and temporal accumulation of measurement uncertainty, compounded by inadequate sampling frequency or spatial coverage, may produce indeterminate results. The degree of indeterminacy may be evaluated in the context of a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), which is a function of the magnitude of the mass balance and the magnitudes of potential systematic uncertainties associated with measurements and incomplete sampling. We report on a closed sand budget consisting of measurements of flux and two morphological surveys for a 50-km segment of a large river over a 3-year period. Accurate reporting of the magnitude and sign of the change in sand storage was only possible by using state-of-the-art techniques with high temporal frequency and large spatial extent. Together, a sand flux and morphological mass balance revealed that sand evacuation was temporally concentrated (~100% of mass change occurred during 19% of the study period) and highly localized (70% of mass change occurred in 12% of the study segment). A SNR analysis revealed that uncertainty resulting from undersampling may approach or exceed that caused by measurement uncertainty and that daily sampling of suspended-sand concentration or repeat mapping of at least 50% of the river segment was required to determine the sand budget with SNR > 1. The approach used here to analyze sand budget uncertainty is especially applicable to other river systems with large temporal variability in sediment transport and large spatial variability in erosion and deposition. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
Some conceptual models suggest that baseflow in agriculturally fragmented watersheds may contain little, if any, groundwater. This has critical implications for stream quality and ecosystem functioning. Here, we (a) identify the sources and flowpaths contributing to baseflow using 222Rn and 87Sr/86Sr and (b) quantify mean apparent ages of groundwater and baseflow using multiple isotopic tracers (CFC, SF6, 36Cl, and 3H) in 4 small (0.08 to 0.64 km2) tributary catchments to the Wabash River in Indiana, USA. 222Rn activities and 87Sr/86Sr ratios indicate that baseflow in 3 catchments is sourced primarily from groundwater; baseflow in the fourth is dominated by a source similar to agricultural run‐off. CFC‐12 data indicate that springs in 1 catchment are discharging significant proportions of water that recharged between 1974 (42 ± 2 years) and 1961 (55 ± 2 years). Those same springs have 36Cl/Cl ratios between 1,381.08 ± 29.37 (×10?15) and 1,530.64 ± 27.65 (×10?15) indicating that a substantial proportion of the discharge likely recharged between 1975 (41 years) and 1950 (66 years). Groundwater samples collected from streambed mini‐piezometers in a separate catchment have CFC‐12 concentrations indicating that a large proportion of the recharge occurred between 1948 (68 ± 2 years) and 1950 (66 ± 2 years). Repeat sampling conducted in September 2015 after above‐average summer rainfall did not show significant decreases in mean apparent age. The relatively old ages observed in 3 of the catchments can be explained by geological complexities that are likely present in all 4 catchments, but overwhelmed by flow from the shallow phreatic aquifer in the fourth catchment.  相似文献   

19.
To monitor the composition and the vertical flux of particulate matter from the sea surface, a sediment trap was moored in Cuenca Alfonso, Bahía de La Paz, a zone of high productivity in the southwestern Gulf of California. Carbonate-free samples from 2002 to 2005 were analyzed for Corg, N, δ13C, and δ15N. The results show seasonal and interannual variability, with the δ13C and δ15N values larger in spring and summer than in fall and winter. The C:N ratio and δ13C increased by 1.5 units from 2002 to 2003–2005, suggesting a change in the supply of organic matter and-or the use or preferential degradation of Norg. There was no interannual variation in δ15N. The occasional high δ15N values suggest that physical mechanisms, such as the shoaling and advection into the bay of 15N-rich subsurface equatorial water, occur over short time periods. The latter is presumed to be related to the periodic development of a significant cyclonic gyre in the southern Gulf.  相似文献   

20.
Abstract In northern Kazakhstan the WNW striking Kokchetav megamélange includes different crustal sequences with high‐pressure/ultrahigh‐pressure (HP/UHP) remnants of their 540–520 Ma subduction metamorphism. Two domains separated by the north‐east trending Chaglinka fault are distinguished. The western domain exhibits NE–SW structures within a single Kumdy–Kol megaunit of diamond‐bearing UHP metasediments and high‐temperature (HT) eclogites. The eastern domain consists of the composite Kulet megaunit with the Kulet UHP unit (coesite‐bearing metasediments, whiteschists and eclogites), the Enbek–Berlyk medium‐pressure (MP) unit (kyanite‐bearing, high‐alumina rocks with interleaved coronitic metagabbro), and ortho‐ and paragneisses with eclogites and amphibolites included. All eclogites in the eastern domain are of the relatively low temperature (LT) type. Sillimanite is common and appears after kyanite in the sheared MP unit. A regional and moderately ESE plunging linear fabric coincides with the fold‐axis of the foliation poles from the eastern domain. Whether this also reflects a regional top to the WNW transport, as inferred from the dextral strike‐slip on steeply to SSW dipping foliation, needs further study. Top to the WNW shear is shown by weakly inclined low pressure (LP) cordierite rocks that flank the eastern domain in the south. Some new 39Ar/40Ar mica cooling ages (519, 521 Ma) from the Kulet UHP micaschists reflect the same early stage evolutionary event as was previously shown for the Kumdy–Kol UHP rocks (515, 517 Ma) in the west. Similar 39Ar/40Ar ages (500, 517 Ma) are recorded by micas and amphibole that outline a top to NNW shear fabric in the non‐subducted Proterozoic basement, north of the megamélange. A 447 Ma overprint of the MP sequences is considered to reflect the strike‐slip deformation with sillimanite and the reworking of an early kyanite‐bearing tectonite. Biotites from the LP cordierite rocks yielded approximately 400 Ma 39Ar/40Ar ages. In case they reflect the WNW shear deformation, the latter is considered to be associated with a regional granite magmatism (420–460 Ma) extending south of the eastern domain. In their present different structural domains the Kulet and Kumdy–Kol UHP units display a similar early stage event. Subsequent LP deformation, which is likely to be associated with regional granite magmatism (420–460 Ma), is assumed to have obliterated any common or uniform early exhumation structure for the whole megamélange. The north‐east structured Kumdy–Kol domain is assumed to have preserved the most information about the early stage exhumation. This domain is at an angle to the regional WNW strike of the megamélange.  相似文献   

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