大西洋海表温度异常与中国东北地区夏季降水的关系

利用1950～1992年全球海温月平均(2°×2°)和NCAR/NCEP提供的1950～1997年全球500hPa月平均高度场(2.5°×2.5°)资料，分析了大西洋海表温度异常的特征及其与中国东北地区夏季降水的关系。结果指出北大西洋冬季海表温度经验正交展开的第二特征向量表明，海表温度的距平分布有南北差异的异常特征；其中心位置和中国东北地区夏季降水与冬季大西洋海表温度相关显著区中心基本重合北大西洋冬季海表温度出现南暖北冷异常时，同期北大西洋中高纬度地区的阻塞形势偏强，与之相对称的北太平洋北部的阻塞高压也偏强，对应来年夏季东亚西风环流指数偏低，造成东北区夏季降水偏多；反之亦然。     

北大西洋秋季“三极子”海温结构对冬季大气环流场的影响

利用NCEP再分析资料、Hadley中心的海表面温度(SST)资料等,从北大西洋秋季海表面温度异常(SSTA)变化入手,对其影响后期冬季大气环流场的机制进行了分析。研究结果如下:(1)北大西洋SST异常与大气环流异常之间存在着相互作用;(2)秋季北大西洋SSTA具有较好的持续性,"正负正"海温异常空间分布导致12月巴伦支海上空500hPa位势高度异常偏高;(3)异常环流形势对应的海表面风异常场(SSWA)通过阶段性风-蒸发-SST异常反馈机制(WES机制)利于海温异常分布的持续及对上空异常大气环流的反馈;(4)三极子海温结构中负异常海温自10月份开始有自西向东的移动,风作用下蒸发加大,伴随上升运动自欧洲西部爱尔兰群岛出现自西向东移动的降水正异常区,潜热释放有利于冬季巴伦支海上空的异常高压脊发展。研究表明,北大西洋秋季SSTA通过阶段性海气相互作用机制影响海洋温度分布和大气环流异常,对后期冬季中国东北部的气候变化产生影响。     

亚印太交汇区海表温度的分布和变化特征及其对中国降水的影响

利用1967-2009年的逐月海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)资料和降水资料,以及经验正交函数(Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF)和相关分析方法,探讨了亚印太交汇区(Joining Area of Asia and Indian-Pacific Oce...     

北太平洋副热带海洋环流强度异常对长江中下游夏季降水的影响

利用SODA资料和ECCO资料计算得到的北太平洋副热带海洋环流强度,和国家气候中心整编的中国160站逐月降水资料,结合NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和Hadley中心海表面温度资料,分析了1970－2007年海洋环流强度异常同期的大尺度大气环流异常特征及对中国东部夏季降水的影响。结果表明:海洋环流强度变化与长江中下游地区降水存在密切的反相关。环流强度异常可以通过影响西太平洋副热带高压的南北位置异常进而影响长江中下游降水。海洋环流偏弱时,副高位置偏南,长江中下游地区受气旋性环流异常影响,来自副高西北侧的强西南水汽输送至此,在该地区形成强水汽辐合中心,同时伴随上升运动加强和对流的加强,进一步导致该地区降水偏多;当海洋环流偏强时,西太平洋副高位置偏北,长江中下游地区受反气旋性环流异常影响,伴随辐散下沉及水汽辐散,导致该地区降水偏少;海洋环流强度异常导致的中纬度海区海表面温度异常,可能是导致副高南北位置异常的主要原因。     

Year aridity index patterns in northwest China and the relationship to summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature

Aim to linking the variability of drought in northwest China to the oceanic influence of North Atlantic SSTs at the background of global warming and at the regional climate change shifting stages, year aridity index variations in northwest China and summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature （SST） variations are examined for the 44 a period of 1961-2004 using singular value decomposition （SVD） analysis. Results show that the SST anomalies （SSTA）in the North Atlantic in summer reflected three basic models. The first SVD mode of SST pattern shows a dipole - like variation with the positive center located at southwest and negative center at northeast of extratropical North Atlantic. And it strongly relates to the positive trend in AI variation in northwest China. The second coupled modes display the coherent positive anomalies in extratropical North Atlantic SST and the marked opposite trend of AI variability between north and south of Xinjiang. In addition, the lag correlation analysis of the first mode of SSTA and geopotential heights at 500 hPa variations also shows that the indication of the former influencing the latter configuration, which result in higher air temperature and less precipitation when the SSTA in the North Atlantic Ocean in summer motivated Eurasian circulation of EA pattern, further to influence the wet - dry variations in northwest China by the ocean-to - atmosphere forcing.     

Seasonal variation of atmospheric coupling with oceanic mesoscale eddies in the North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent

This study investigated the seasonal variation in the atmospheric response to oceanic mesoscale eddies in the North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC) and its mechanism, based on satellite altimetric and reanalysis datasets. Although mesoscale eddy in the study area is more active in summer, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly associated with mesoscale eddies is more intense and dipolar in winter, which is largely due to the larger background SST gradient. Similarly, the impact of the oceanic eddy on sea surface wind speed and heat flux is strongest in winter, whereas its effect on precipitation rate is more significant in summer. The study revealed that the SST gradient in STCC could impact the atmosphere layer by up to 800 hPa (900 hPa) in boreal winter (summer) through the dominant vertical mixing mechanism. Moreover, the intensity of the SST gradient causes such seasonal variation in mesoscale air-sea coupling in the study region. In brief, a stronger (weaker) background SST gradient field in wintertime (summertime) leads to a larger (smaller) eddy-induced SST anomaly, thus differently impacting atmosphere instability and transitional kinetic energy flux over oceanic eddies, leading to seasonal variation in mesoscale air-sea coupling intensity.     

Multitime scale variations of sea surface temperature in the China seas based on the HadISST dataset

The variability of the sea surface temperature(SST) in the China seas has been studied in seasonal,interannual and interdecadal scales based on the monthly data of HadISST spanning from 1870 to 2007. The main results obtained are SST in the China offshore changes most actively at the seasonal scale with the intensity diminishing from north to south,as the temperature differences between summer and winter reaching 17 and 4 C in the northern and southern areas,respectively. Moreover,seasonal variation near the coastal regions seems relatively stronger than that far from the coastline;significant interannual variations are detected,with the largest positive anomaly occurring in 1998 in the overall area. But as far as different domains are concerned,there exists great diversity,and the difference is also found between winter and summer. Differed from the seasonal variations,where the strongest interannual variability takes place,resides to the south of that of the seasonal ones in the northern section,nevertheless in the South China Sea,the most significant interannual variability is found in the deep basin;interdecadal changes of summer,winter and annual mean SST in different domains likewise present various features. In addition,a common dominant warming in recent 20 a are found in the overall China offshore with the strongest center located in the vicinity of the Changjiang Estuary in the East China Sea,which intensifies as high as 1.3 C during the past 130 a.     

华北地区夏季降雨量与南海海温长期变化的关系

比较了华北地区7个站与17个站1951-1997年夏季（6，7，8月）降雨量与气候随时间的变化特征，并对其成因作了探讨。结果表明，用北京、天津、邢台、烟台、郑州、太原和济南等7个站可代表该地区夏季降雨量与气候的多尺度变化特征，过去47a该地区依次经历了湿凉、湿热、湿凉、干热、湿热几个时期，降雨量的长期变化与南海前冬（1-2月）海温成负相关。前冬南海海温偏高，意味着初夏南海地区大气对流低频振动偏弱，南海夏季风爆发较晚，西南季风较弱，夏季西太平洋副高位置偏南，华北地区大气低层北风加强，华北地区夏季少雨，前冬南海海温偏低时情况则相反，考虑冬季（1-2月）南海南温和7-8月西太平洋副高脊线位置（纬度）的影响用均生函数建模，试验结果与用子波变换重构方法考虑华北地区夏季降雨量的变化趋势比较，二者相吻合，预测试验结果与过去3a的实况基本一致。     

Abnormality of the monsoon wind in the sea area along the southeastern coast of China and the response of the northern area of the South China Sea during the ENSO events

Variations of monsoon wind field in the sea area along the southeastern coast of China during the ENSO events and its influence on the sea level and sea surface temperature (SST) are explored mainly on the basis of the data of monthly mean wind at 850 hPa and five coastal stations during 1973-1987. The results from the analyses of the data and theoretical estimation show that the southwest wind anomalies appeared in the study area during the events, and northeast wind anomalies occurred in general before the events. With the coastline of the area being parallel basically to the direction of the wind, an Ekman transport will result in an accumulation of the water near the coast or a departure of the water from the coast. As a result , the sea level and SST there will be affected markedly. During the events, southwest wind will intensify in the summer, and northeast wind will weaken in the winter. Their total effect is that a large negative anomaly of the sea level and SST will occur. The estimations indi     

南海季风型海-气耦合模态的时空特征及其与中国夏季降水的关系

使用NCEP/NCAR的海表温度(SST)、海面10 m风场的月平均再分析资料,用联合SVD(CSVD)的方法研究了不同季节南海的海气耦合模的时空分布特征及其与中国夏季降水的关系。通过对不同季节的海-气耦合模的年际变化特征的分析。结果发现:第一模态为最显著模态,模态协方差贡献比在四季均超过80%,空间上SST表现为与南海等深线相一致的海盆模态,风场上主要表现为弱的冬季风或弱的夏季风,各个季节的海-气耦合模态都主要反映了SST-蒸发-风反馈这样1种正反馈的海-气相互作用过程,而且冬季风期间这种相互作用要更强烈些。时间系数均主要表现为一致的上升趋势和1976年前后的年代际突变,以及与ENSO相关的年际变化特征。冬、夏季弱的季风对应暖SST的特征体现了这种耦合模态隔季相关的特征,都对应夏季华南旱(涝)、江南涝(旱),华北、山东半岛旱(涝),东北涝(旱)这样1种波列状的旱涝相间分布。     

Dominant sea-surface temperature anomaly patterns in summer over the North Pacific ocean

We investigated the structure and persistency of the dominant sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern in summer over the North Pacific from 1960 to 2004, which has been attracting less attention than those in winter. The leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) for August and September, which can be treated as the summer patterns, rather resemble each other in both spatial structure and time variations but are quite different from those of the other months. A lag correlation analysis indicates that the summer patterns do not show significant persistency in the following winter and the summer of the next year. An inappropriate definition of the summer season might obscure the characteristics of the dominant summer SST anomaly pattern in the North Pacific.     

El Niño对东亚气候年际异常影响的数值模拟

根据1949~1998年期间8次显著El Niño事件合成的24个月年际海温异常(SSTAs)和气候平均的海温(SST),利用CCM3分别进行了3个包含10次积分的集合试验,即控制试验(CTRL),热带太平洋海洋全球大气试验(TOGA)以及整个太平洋海洋全球大气试验(TOGA-NP),通过对比分析这3个试验之间的集合模拟结果,揭示了在El Niño不同演变阶段东亚气候年际异常响应结构以及北太平洋年际SSTAs在此过程中的调制作用.结果表明:El Niño发展阶段夏季,东亚地区大气环流异常呈显著的负PJ波列,副热带高压减弱、偏东,东亚夏季风增强,东北和江淮流域降水偏多,华北和长江流域及其以南地区降水偏少;El Niño成熟阶段冬季,东亚大槽加强,东亚北部冬季风加强,西太平洋副热带地区低层有显著的反气旋式异常风场,华南地区降水显著增多;El Niño衰亡阶段夏季东亚气候年际异常型与其发展阶段夏季几乎相反.同时,北太平洋年际SSTAs对El Niño影响东亚气候年际异常有一定的调制作用,使模拟的我国降水异常分布更符合观测.     

西太平洋副热带高压与海表温度的关系

利用超前滞后相关分析研究了西太平洋副热带高压与海表面温度异常的关系。选取各关键海区分析海温与西太副高在不同时段上的超前滞后相关, 结果表明,冬季东太平洋海温与滞后其2—3个月的副高异常达最大正相关,热带印度洋海温异常与冬季同期副高异常的正相关最显著;西太平洋海温在冬春季与同期的副高负相关最显著;北太平洋海温在冬春季滞后副高1—2个月时存在负相关,大西洋暖池区6月与西太副高的同期正相关最大;对南太平洋来说,冬季的西太副高与从前秋到春季的SST都存在最大负相关。海表温度的异常主要解释冬春季的西太副高异常,而对于夏秋季副热带高压,SST的作用比较有限     

Relationships between interannual variations in stratospheric warmings, tropospheric circulation, and sea surface temperature in the Northern Hemisphere

The leading modes of interannual and long-term variations in the stratospheric and tropospheric circulation and total ozone (TOMS data) and their relations to Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are investigated using the monthly mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the winter months of 1958–2003. Strong correlations are indicated between the interannual total ozone variations over Labrador and the North Atlantic and changes in the stratospheric polar vortex. The onset of major stratospheric warmings is connected not only with the strengthening of westerlies at the 500-hPa level in the midlatitude Atlantic, but also with the weakening of tropospheric winds over the north of eastern Siberia and strengthening over the Far East. In years with major stratospheric warmings, abnormally cold winters are observed in Eurasia, especially in eastern Siberia and northeastern China. The calculated simultaneous (with no time lags) correlations of the stratospheric circulation changes with El Niño/La Niña events give evidence of low correlations between the tropical Pacific SST anomalies and the stratospheric dynamics in the Arctic. However, there are high correlations of the extratropical Pacific and Atlantic SST anomalies with interannual tropospheric and stratospheric circulation variations, the stratospheric dynamics being more strongly connected with Pacific SST than with Atlantic SST anomalies. The interannual changes in tropospheric circulation are coupled to SST anomalies in both the Pacific and the Atlantic. Mechanisms of long-term changes in the interactive ocean-atmosphere-ozone layer system are discussed.     

How are large western hemisphere warm pools formed?

During the boreal summer the Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) stretches from the eastern North Pacific to the tropical North Atlantic and is a key feature of the climate of the Americas and Africa. In the summers following nine El Niño events during 1950–2000, there have been five instances of extraordinarily large warm pools averaging about twice the climatological annual size. These large warm pools have induced a strengthened divergent circulation aloft and have been associated with rainfall anomalies throughout the western hemisphere tropics and subtropics and with more frequent hurricanes. However, following four other El Niño events large warm pools did not develop, such that the mere existence of El Niño during the boreal winter does not provide the basis for predicting an anomalously large warm pool the following summer.In this paper, we find consistency with the hypothesis that large warm pools result from an anomalous divergent circulation forced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific, the so-called atmospheric bridge. We also find significant explanations for why large warm pools do not always develop. If the El Niño event ends early in the eastern Pacific, the Pacific warm anomaly lacks the persistence needed to force the atmospheric bridge and the Atlantic portion of the warm pool remains normal. If SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific do not last much beyond February of the following year, then the eastern North Pacific portion of the warm pool remains normal. The overall strength of the Pacific El Niño does not appear to be a critical factor. We also find that when conditions favor a developing atmospheric bridge and the winter atmosphere over the North Atlantic conforms to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern (as in 1957–58 and 1968–69), the forcing is reinforced and the warm pool is stronger. On the other hand, if a positive NAO pattern develops the warm pool may remain normal even if other circumstances favor the atmospheric bridge, as in 1991–92. Finally, we could find little evidence that interactions internal to the tropical Atlantic are likely to mitigate for or against the formation of the largest warm pools, although they may affect smaller warm pool fluctuations or the warm pool persistence.     

冬季北大西洋涛动和乌拉尔山阻塞环流对欧亚大陆变冷的协同影响

虽然全球平均表面气温不断升高,但在冬季欧亚大陆经常出现年际-年代际尺度上的变冷趋势。利用美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NCEP)再分析资料,指出冬季影响欧亚大陆变冷的大气环流主要是北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO)和乌拉尔山阻塞(Ural blocking, UB)的环流组合。其中,NAO环流可以在年际尺度上作为背景环流影响UB过程对欧亚低温天气的作用。统计分析发现,在NAO正(负)位相(NAO⁺/NAO^-)环流背景下UB的发生频率可以解释冬季平均UB发生频率的52%(13%),表明NAO⁺环流有利于下游阻塞形势出现。尽管如此,研究发现在NAO^-环流背景下的UB事件平均给欧亚地区带来的降温幅度更强,约是NAO⁺环流背景下的2倍,而且亚洲降温区的位置偏北约5°、偏东约13.5°。中等强度的NAO⁺环流背景下UB事件对欧亚降温的贡献...     

印度洋不同海温模态对两类厄尔尼诺事件与我国南方秋季降水关系的影响

利用1951—2015年NOAA气候预测中心的SST扩展重建资料（ERSST V3b）、国家气候中心提供的我国160站月降水量资料、美国国家环境预报中心/大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）提供的各气压层的水平风速、垂直速度和比湿资料,研究了印度洋不同海温模态对两类厄尔尼诺事件与我国南方秋季降水关系的影响。结果表明,虽然东部型（中部型）厄尔尼诺年秋季我国长江以南地区降水偏多（少）,但当东部型厄尔尼诺与印度洋正偶极子同时发生年秋季,我国长江以南地区降水偏多的程度显著提高;当中部型厄尔尼诺与印度洋正偶极子同时发生年秋季,我国西南地区降水转为偏多,其他南方地区降水仍然偏少;当中部型厄尔尼诺与印度洋一致增暖型海温同时发生年秋季,我国整个长江以南地区降水偏少,且偏少的幅度要显著高于不考虑印度洋海温异常的情况。此外还对印度洋不同海温模态对两类厄尔尼诺事件与我国南方秋季降水关系的影响的环流成因进行了分析。     

青岛和烟台滨海海、气温差的时间变化

本文根据近３０ａ来青岛和烟台逐月气温及滨海水温资料，分析了青岛和烟台海、气温差的时间变化，发现秋、冬季节南岸青岛海、气温差大于北岸烟台；春、夏季则相反．通常当年平均或季平均气温为负距平时，年平均或冬季平均海、气温差为正距平，而夏季平均海、气温差为负距平，对于ＥｌＮｉｎｏ及反ＥｌＮｉｎｏ年结论与之相反．     

印度洋海温异常对西北太平洋台风的影响及机制研究

基于近40 a NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均高度场、风场、涡度场、垂直速度场以及NOAA重构的海面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)资料和美国联合台风预警中心(Joint Typhoon Warning Center,JTWC)热带气旋最佳路径资料,利用合成分析方法,研究了前期春季及同期夏季印度洋海面温度同夏季西北太平洋台风活动的关系。结果表明:1)前期春季印度洋海温异常(sea surface temperature anomaly,SSTA)尤其是关键区位于赤道偏北印度洋和西南印度洋地区对西北太平洋台风活动具有显著的影响,春季印度洋海温异常偏暖年,后期夏季,110°～180°E的经向垂直环流表现为异常下沉气流,对应风场的低层低频风辐散、高层辐合的形势,这种环流形势使得低层水汽无法向上输送,对流层中层水汽异常偏少,纬向风垂直切变偏大,从而夏季西北太平洋台风频数偏少、强度偏弱,而异常偏冷年份则正好相反。2)春季印度洋异常暖年,西北太平洋副热带高压加强、西伸;而春季印度洋异常冷年,后期夏季西北太平洋副热带高压减弱、东退,这可能是引起夏季西北太平洋台风变化的另一原因。     

基于PMIP2气候模式模拟的中全新世北大西洋涛动

根据PMIP2中的4个海气耦合模式对中全新世气候的模拟结果,利用现代和中全新世两个时间段的冬季海平面气压场(SLP),分析了北大西洋海平面气压的变化情况并计算了这两个时间段的北大西洋涛动(NAO)指数。结果表明,中全新世亚速尔高压加强,冰岛低压加深,南北气压差增加,NAO强度显著增强。对中全新世北大西洋地区SLP进行经验正交函数(EOF)分析显示,4个模式均能捕捉到了NAO的主要结构。中全新世NAO处于正位相的时间较现代提高了10%~30%,其中MIROC3.2提高了29.3%;虽然NAO指数振幅变化不大,但还是能显示中全新世NAO显著强于现代,这与地质资料恢复的结果相一致。对NAO指数的多窗谱分析显示,现代NAO指数存在3~5 a的准周期变化,中全新世NAO指数存在3 a的准周期变化。NAO对中全新世亚洲地区冬季增温有重要影响。北大西洋地区中纬度海面温度(SST)的增温可能是导致中全新世NAO强度增强的一个重要因素。