An Icelandic example of the impact of population structure on association studies

The impact of population structure on association studies undertaken to identify genetic variants underlying common human diseases is an issue of growing interest. Spurious associations of alleles with disease phenotypes may be obtained or true associations overlooked when allele frequencies differ notably among subpopulations that are not represented equally among cases and controls. Population structure influences even carefully designed studies and can affect the validity of association results. Most study designs address this problem by sampling cases and controls from groups that share the same nationality or self-reported ethnic background, with the implicit assumption that no substructure exists within such groups. We examined population structure in the Icelandic gene pool using extensive genealogical and genetic data. Our results indicate that sampling strategies need to take account of substructure even in a relatively homogenous genetic isolate. This will probably be even more important in larger populations.     

The effects of human population structure on large genetic association studies

Large-scale association studies hold substantial promise for unraveling the genetic basis of common human diseases. A well-known problem with such studies is the presence of undetected population structure, which can lead to both false positive results and failures to detect genuine associations. Here we examine approximately 15,000 genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphisms typed in three population groups to assess the consequences of population structure on the coming generation of association studies. The consequences of population structure on association outcomes increase markedly with sample size. For the size of study needed to detect typical genetic effects in common diseases, even the modest levels of population structure within population groups cannot safely be ignored. We also examine one method for correcting for population structure (Genomic Control). Although it often performs well, it may not correct for structure if too few loci are used and may overcorrect in other settings, leading to substantial loss of power. The results of our analysis can guide the design of large-scale association studies.     

Replication validity of genetic association studies

The rapid growth of human genetics creates countless opportunities for studies of disease association. Given the number of potentially identifiable genetic markers and the multitude of clinical outcomes to which these may be linked, the testing and validation of statistical hypotheses in genetic epidemiology is a task of unprecedented scale. Meta-analysis provides a quantitative approach for combining the results of various studies on the same topic, and for estimating and explaining their diversity. Here, we have evaluated by meta-analysis 370 studies addressing 36 genetic associations for various outcomes of disease. We show that significant between-study heterogeneity (diversity) is frequent, and that the results of the first study correlate only modestly with subsequent research on the same association. The first study often suggests a stronger genetic effect than is found by subsequent studies. Both bias and genuine population diversity might explain why early association studies tend to overestimate the disease protection or predisposition conferred by a genetic polymorphism. We conclude that a systematic meta-analytic approach may assist in estimating population-wide effects of genetic risk factors in human disease.     

Principal components analysis corrects for stratification in genome-wide association studies

Population stratification--allele frequency differences between cases and controls due to systematic ancestry differences-can cause spurious associations in disease studies. We describe a method that enables explicit detection and correction of population stratification on a genome-wide scale. Our method uses principal components analysis to explicitly model ancestry differences between cases and controls. The resulting correction is specific to a candidate marker's variation in frequency across ancestral populations, minimizing spurious associations while maximizing power to detect true associations. Our simple, efficient approach can easily be applied to disease studies with hundreds of thousands of markers.     

Efficiency and power in genetic association studies

We investigated selection and analysis of tag SNPs for genome-wide association studies by specifically examining the relationship between investment in genotyping and statistical power. Do pairwise or multimarker methods maximize efficiency and power? To what extent is power compromised when tags are selected from an incomplete resource such as HapMap? We addressed these questions using genotype data from the HapMap ENCODE project, association studies simulated under a realistic disease model, and empirical correction for multiple hypothesis testing. We demonstrate a haplotype-based tagging method that uniformly outperforms single-marker tests and methods for prioritization that markedly increase tagging efficiency. Examining all observed haplotypes for association, rather than just those that are proxies for known SNPs, increases power to detect rare causal alleles, at the cost of reduced power to detect common causal alleles. Power is robust to the completeness of the reference panel from which tags are selected. These findings have implications for prioritizing tag SNPs and interpreting association studies.     

Systematic meta-analyses of Alzheimer disease genetic association studies: the AlzGene database

The past decade has witnessed hundreds of reports declaring or refuting genetic association with putative Alzheimer disease susceptibility genes. This wealth of information has become increasingly difficult to follow, much less interpret. We have created a publicly available, continuously updated database that comprehensively catalogs all genetic association studies in the field of Alzheimer disease (http://www.alzgene.org). We performed systematic meta-analyses for each polymorphism with available genotype data in at least three case-control samples. In addition to identifying the epsilon4 allele of APOE and related effects, we pinpointed over a dozen potential Alzheimer disease susceptibility genes (ACE, CHRNB2, CST3, ESR1, GAPDHS, IDE, MTHFR, NCSTN, PRNP, PSEN1, TF, TFAM and TNF) with statistically significant allelic summary odds ratios (ranging from 1.11-1.38 for risk alleles and 0.92-0.67 for protective alleles). Our database provides a powerful tool for deciphering the genetics of Alzheimer disease, and it serves as a potential model for tracking the most viable gene candidates in other genetically complex diseases.     

Transferability of tag SNPs in genetic association studies in multiple populations

A general question for linkage disequilibrium-based association studies is how power to detect an association is compromised when tag SNPs are chosen from data in one population sample and then deployed in another sample. Specifically, it is important to know how well tags picked from the HapMap DNA samples capture the variation in other samples. To address this, we collected dense data uniformly across the four HapMap population samples and eleven other population samples. We picked tag SNPs using genotype data we collected in the HapMap samples and then evaluated the effective coverage of these tags in comparison to the entire set of common variants observed in the other samples. We simulated case-control association studies in the non-HapMap samples under a disease model of modest risk, and we observed little loss in power. These results demonstrate that the HapMap DNA samples can be used to select tags for genome-wide association studies in many samples around the world.     

Estimating coverage and power for genetic association studies using near-complete variation data

Although studies suggest that SNPs derived from HapMap provide promising coverage and power for association studies, the lack of alternative variation datasets limits independent analysis. Using near-complete variation data for 76 genes resequenced in HapMap samples, we find that coverage of common variation by commercial genotyping arrays is substantially lower compared to the HapMap-based estimates. We quantify the power offered by these arrays for a range of disease models.     

Systematic meta-analyses and field synopsis of genetic association studies in schizophrenia: the SzGene database

In an effort to pinpoint potential genetic risk factors for schizophrenia, research groups worldwide have published over 1,000 genetic association studies with largely inconsistent results. To facilitate the interpretation of these findings, we have created a regularly updated online database of all published genetic association studies for schizophrenia ('SzGene'). For all polymorphisms having genotype data available in at least four independent case-control samples, we systematically carried out random-effects meta-analyses using allelic contrasts. Across 118 meta-analyses, a total of 24 genetic variants in 16 different genes (APOE, COMT, DAO, DRD1, DRD2, DRD4, DTNBP1, GABRB2, GRIN2B, HP, IL1B, MTHFR, PLXNA2, SLC6A4, TP53 and TPH1) showed nominally significant effects with average summary odds ratios of approximately 1.23. Seven of these variants had not been previously meta-analyzed. According to recently proposed criteria for the assessment of cumulative evidence in genetic association studies, four of the significant results can be characterized as showing 'strong' epidemiological credibility. Our project represents the first comprehensive online resource for systematically synthesized and graded evidence of genetic association studies in schizophrenia. As such, it could serve as a model for field synopses of genetic associations in other common and genetically complex disorders.     

Parameters for reliable results in genetic association studies in common disease.

It is increasingly apparent that the identification of true genetic associations in common multifactorial disease will require studies comprising thousands rather than the hundreds of individuals employed to date. Using 2,873 families, we were unable to confirm a recently published association of the interleukin 12B gene in 422 type I diabetic families. These results emphasize the need for large datasets, small P values and independent replication if results are to be reliable.     

Large-scale genome-wide association studies in East Asians identify new genetic loci influencing metabolic traits

To identify the genetic bases for nine metabolic traits, we conducted a meta-analysis combining Korean genome-wide association results from the KARE project (n = 8,842) and the HEXA shared control study (n = 3,703). We verified the associations of the loci selected from the discovery meta-analysis in the replication stage (30,395 individuals from the BioBank Japan genome-wide association study and individuals comprising the Health2 and Shanghai Jiao Tong University Diabetes cohorts). We identified ten genome-wide significant signals newly associated with traits from an overall meta-analysis. The most compelling associations involved 12q24.11 (near MYL2) and 12q24.13 (in C12orf51) for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, 2p21 (near SIX2-SIX3) for fasting plasma glucose, 19q13.33 (in RPS11) and 6q22.33 (in RSPO3) for renal traits, and 12q24.11 (near MYL2), 12q24.13 (in C12orf51 and near OAS1), 4q31.22 (in ZNF827) and 7q11.23 (near TBL2-BCL7B) for hepatic traits. These findings highlight previously unknown biological pathways for metabolic traits investigated in this study.     

Magnitude and distribution of linkage disequilibrium in population isolates and implications for genome-wide association studies

The genome-wide distribution of linkage disequilibrium (LD) determines the strategy for selecting markers for association studies, but it varies between populations. We assayed LD in large samples (200 individuals) from each of 11 well-described population isolates and an outbred European-derived sample, using SNP markers spaced across chromosome 22. Most isolates show substantially higher levels of LD than the outbred sample and many fewer regions of very low LD (termed 'holes'). Young isolates known to have had relatively few founders show particularly extensive LD with very few holes; these populations offer substantial advantages for genome-wide association mapping.     

Meta-analysis of genetic association studies supports a contribution of common variants to susceptibility to common disease

Association studies offer a potentially powerful approach to identify genetic variants that influence susceptibility to common disease, but are plagued by the impression that they are not consistently reproducible. In principle, the inconsistency may be due to false positive studies, false negative studies or true variability in association among different populations. The critical question is whether false positives overwhelmingly explain the inconsistency. We analyzed 301 published studies covering 25 different reported associations. There was a large excess of studies replicating the first positive reports, inconsistent with the hypothesis of no true positive associations (P < 10(-14)). This excess of replications could not be reasonably explained by publication bias and was concentrated among 11 of the 25 associations. For 8 of these 11 associations, pooled analysis of follow-up studies yielded statistically significant replication of the first report, with modest estimated genetic effects. Thus, a sizable fraction (but under half) of reported associations have strong evidence of replication; for these, false negative, underpowered studies probably contribute to inconsistent replication. We conclude that there are probably many common variants in the human genome with modest but real effects on common disease risk, and that studies using large samples will convincingly identify such variants.     

Genome-wide association study of leaf architecture in the maize nested association mapping population

US maize yield has increased eight-fold in the past 80 years, with half of the gain attributed to selection by breeders. During this time, changes in maize leaf angle and size have altered plant architecture, allowing more efficient light capture as planting density has increased. Through a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of the maize nested association mapping panel, we determined the genetic basis of important leaf architecture traits and identified some of the key genes. Overall, we demonstrate that the genetic architecture of the leaf traits is dominated by small effects, with little epistasis, environmental interaction or pleiotropy. In particular, GWAS results show that variations at the liguleless genes have contributed to more upright leaves. These results demonstrate that the use of GWAS with specially designed mapping populations is effective in uncovering the basis of key agronomic traits.     

The use of pedigree, sib-pair and association studies of common diseases for genetic mapping and epidemiology

Efforts to identify gene variants associated with susceptibility to common diseases use three approaches: pedigree and affected sib-pair linkage studies and association studies of population samples. The different aims of these study designs reflect their derivation from biological versus epidemiological traditions. Similar principles regarding determination of the evidence levels required to consider the results statistically significant apply to both linkage and association studies, however. Such determination requires explicit attention to the prior probability of particular findings, as well as appropriate correction for multiple comparisons. For most common diseases, increasing the sample size in a study is a crucial step in achieving statistically significant genetic mapping results. Recent studies suggest that the technology and statistical methodology will soon be available to make well-powered studies feasible using any of these approaches.     

Evaluating coverage of genome-wide association studies

Genome-wide association studies involving hundreds of thousands of SNPs in thousands of cases and controls are now underway. The first of many analytical challenges in these studies involves the choice of SNPs to genotype. It is not practical to construct a different panel of tag SNPs for each study, so the first generation of genome-wide scans will use predefined, commercially available marker panels, which will in part dictate their success or failure. We compare different approaches in use today, and show that although many of them provide substantial coverage of common variation in non-African populations, the precise extent is strongly dependent on the frequencies of alleles of interest and on specific considerations of study design. Overall, despite substantial differences in genotyping technologies, marker selection strategies and number of markers assayed, the first-generation high-throughput platforms all offer similar levels of genome coverage.     

Genome-wide association study of quantitative resistance to southern leaf blight in the maize nested association mapping population

Nested association mapping (NAM) offers power to resolve complex, quantitative traits to their causal loci. The maize NAM population, consisting of 5,000 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) from 25 families representing the global diversity of maize, was evaluated for resistance to southern leaf blight (SLB) disease. Joint-linkage analysis identified 32 quantitative trait loci (QTLs) with predominantly small, additive effects on SLB resistance. Genome-wide association tests of maize HapMap SNPs were conducted by imputing founder SNP genotypes onto the NAM RILs. SNPs both within and outside of QTL intervals were associated with variation for SLB resistance. Many of these SNPs were within or near sequences homologous to genes previously shown to be involved in plant disease resistance. Limited linkage disequilibrium was observed around some SNPs associated with SLB resistance, indicating that the maize NAM population enables high-resolution mapping of some genome regions.