基于社会学视角的江河源区草地生态系统变化和影响因素研

 将社会学研究思想扩充到自然科学研究,用个体行为的局部微观感应和认知来推演资源环境这一极具自然－社会－经济系统综合性的全局宏观规律,是一个值得探讨的研究方向。利用社会问卷调查方法以及文献综述,结合已有的自然科学研究成果,通过长江黄河源区案例分析,获得以下结论：（1）江河源区气候变暖,雪灾等灾害气候增加。（2）包括草地围栏、灭鼠、人工草地、定居畜棚建设等草地生态系统的人工正向干预不断增强,草地生态系统质量局部改善。（3）降水量变化增减不明显,但植被生长季节、尤其夏季干化趋势增强、水资源呈现减少的趋势。（4）气候变化构成了草地退化的主要驱动因素,草地鼠害以及采挖虫草、不合理放牧等人类活动对草地退化的影响逐渐突显。对此,有以下启示：（1）江河源区气候变化已是基本事实,源区生态系统特有的脆弱性和敏感性,以及气候变化减缓空间有限性,凸显了适应科学研究和适应能力构建的战略性和迫切性。（2）尽管气候变化构成了源区草地退化的主要驱动因素,但调整该区不合理的人类活动对草地退化的减缓同等重要。（3）草地生态系统的人工正向干预是维护草地生态系统功能的重要手段,是较长时期内草地生态系统质量改善的有效途径。     

三江源地区植被指数下降趋势的空间特征及其地理背景

利用8km分辨率的Pathfinder NOAA/AVHRR-NDVI数据,结合1km分辨率的DEM,1 ∶ 250000道路、居民点、水系数据以及野外调查数据,分析了植被指数变化总体态势、植被指数变化与海拔及与距道路、水源和居民点距离之间的关系,探讨了三江源区1981~2001年间植被指数变化趋势和空间分异特征。结果表明:①三江源地区植被指数变化以下降趋势为主,下降区域占源区总面积的18.92%,增加区域占13.99%;②不同植被和冻土类型下的植被指数下降特征:灌丛区和森林区下降率最高,下降率与各类型区的居民点密度、生计方式有关;植被指数下降程度与冻土类型关系不明显;③植被指数下降的区域差异明显:下降率各区域分别为长江源区13.56%、黄河源区32.51%和澜沧江源区18.1%;④植被指数下降率随着距道路、河流的距离增加而逐渐减小;下降率在距居民点18~24km的缓冲带上达到最高后随着距离增大而下降;植被指数下降率随着海拔高程的升高呈"低－高－低－高"态势,下降率与居民点的分布高度相关。     

江河源区生态环境范围的探讨

The Tibetan Plateau, as the origin of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers, is the region of climate variation and is very sensitive to climate change in China (Feng etal., 1998). The runoff in the upper reaches of the Yellow River has been decreasing at a rate of 9.8 m3/s per decade due to rapid climate warming in the Tibetan Plateau since the mid- and late 1980s (Zhang etal., 2000). Eco-environmental change is also extremely substantial in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers. T…     

Eco-environment range in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers

Based on geographical and hydrological extents delimited, four principles are identified, as the bases for delineating the ranges of the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers in the paper. According to the comprehensive analysis of topographical characteristics, climate conditions, vegetation distribution and hydrological features, the source region ranges for eco-environmental study are defined. The eastern boundary point is Dari hydrological station in the upper reach of the Yellow River. The watershed above Dari hydrological station is the source region of the Yellow River which drains an area of 4.49×104 km2. Natural environment is characterized by the major topographical types of plateau lakes and marshland, gentle landforms, alpine cold semi-arid climate, and steppe and meadow vegetation in the source region of the Yellow River. The eastern boundary point is the convergent site of the Nieqiaqu and the Tongtian River in the upstream of the Yangtze River. The watershed above the convergent site is the source region of the Yangtze River, with a watershed area of 12.24×104 km2. Hills and alpine plain topography, gentle terrain, alpine cold arid and semi-arid climate, and alpine cold grassland and meadow are natural conditions in the source region of the Yangtze River.     

江河源区达日县近50年气候变化的多尺度分析

利用墨西哥帽小波对达日县1956~2004年共588个月的气温和降水数据进行多尺度分析,揭示了达日县气候变化多时间尺度的复杂结构,分析了不同时间尺度下降水和气温序列的变化周期和突变点,并确定了各序列中存在的主周期。结果表明:达日县气温和降水的变化趋势与青藏高原以及江河源区气候总体变化基本一致,局部存在较明显的滞后反应,小尺度的变化嵌套在较大尺度的复杂背景之中,不同时间尺度下突变的年份有所差异,小波分析在揭示气候变化的多尺度构型和主周期方面具有明显的优势。     

Fluvial diversity in relation to valley setting in the source region of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers

The spatial distribution of valley setting （laterally-unconfined, partly-confined, or confined） and fluvial morphology in the source region of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers is contrasted and analyzed. The source region of the Yangtze River is divided into 3 broad sections （I, II and III） based on valley setting and channel gradient, with the upstream and downstream sections being characterized by confined （some reaches partly-confined） valleys while the middle section is characterized with wide and shallow, laterally-unconfined valleys. Gorges are prominent in sections I and III, while braided channel patterns dominate section II. By contrast, the source region of the Yellow River is divided into 5 broad sections （sections I-V） based on valley characteristics and channel gradient. Sections I, II and IV are alluvial reaches with mainly laterally-unconfined （some short reaches partly-confined） valleys. Sections III and V are mainly confined or partly-confined. Greater morphological diversity is evident in the source region of the Yellow River relative to the upper Yangtze River. This includes braided, anabranching, anastomosing, meandering and straight alluvial patterns, with gorges in confined reaches. The macro-relief （elevation, gradient, aspect, valley alignment and confinement） of the region, linked directly to tectonic movement of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, tied to climatic, hydrologic and biotic considerations, are primary controls upon the patterns of river diversity in the region.     

基于小波分析的江河源区汛期和枯水期径流特征(英文)

By decomposing and reconstructing the runoff information from 1965 to 2007 of the hydrologic stations of Tuotuo River and Zhimenda in the source region of the Yangtze River, and Jimai and Tangnaihai in the source region of the Yellow River with db3 wavelet, runoff of different hydrologic stations tends to be declining in the seasons of spring flood, summer flood and dry ones except for that in Tuotuo River. The declining flood/dry seasons series was summer > spring > dry; while runoff of Tuotuo River was always increasing in different stages from 1965 to 2007 with a higher increase rate in summer flood seasons than that in spring ones. Complex Morlet wavelet was selected to detect runoff periodicity of the four hydrologic stations mentioned above. Over all seasons the periodicity was 11-12 years in the source region of the Yellow River. For the source region of the Yangtze River the periodicity was 4-6 years in the spring flood seasons and 13-14 years in the summer flood seasons. The differences of variations of flow periodicity between the upper catchment areas of the Yellow River and the Yangtze River and between seasons were considered in relation to glacial melt and annual snowfall and rainfall as providers of water for runoff.     

江河源区NDVI时空变化及其与气候因子的关系(英文)

The source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers are important water conservation areas of China. In recent years, ecological deterioration trend of the source regions caused by global climate change and unreasonable resource development increased gradually. In this paper, the spatial distribution and dynamic change of vegetation cover in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers are analyzed in recent 10 years based on 1-km resolution multitemporal SPOTVGT-DN data from 1998 to 2007. Meanwhile, the correlation relationships between air temperature, precipitation, shallow ground temperature and NDVI, which is 3×3 pixel at the center of Wudaoliang, Tuotuohe, Qumalai, Maduo, and Dari meteorological stations were analyzed. The results show that the NDVI values in these two source regions are increasing in recent 10 years. Spatial distribution of NDVI which was consistent with hydrothermal condition decreased from southeast to northwest of the source regions. NDVI with a value over 0.54 was mainly distributed in the southeastern source region of the Yellow River, and most NDVI values in the northwestern source region of the Yangtze River were less than 0.22. Spatial changing trend of NDVI has great difference and most parts in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers witnessed indistinct change. The regions with marked increasing trend were mainly distributed on the south side of the Tongtian River, some part of Keqianqu, Tongtian, Chumaer, and Tuotuo rivers in the source region of the Yangtze River and Xingsuhai, and southern Dari county in the source region of the Yellow River. The regions with very marked increasing tendency were mainly distributed on the south side of Tongtian Rriver and sporadically distributed in hinterland of the source region of the Yangtze River. The north side of Tangula Range in the source region of the Yangtze River and Dari and Maduo counties in the source region of the Yellow River were areas in which NDVI changed with marked decreasing tendency. The NDVI change was980 Journal of Geographical Sciences positively correlated with average temperature, precipitation and shallow ground temperature. Shallow ground temperature had the greatest effect on NDVI change, and the second greatest factor influencing NDVI was average temperature. The correlation between NDVI and shallow ground temperature in the source regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers increased significantly with the depth of soil layer.     

长江黄河源区生态环境范围的探讨

在江河源区地理学与水文学界定的基础上,在明确界定源区范围四大原则与依据的前提下,文章综合分析了长江黄河源区的地貌特征、气候条件、植被分布以及水文水系特征,并在此基础上综合确定了长江黄河源区生态环境研究的范围。以达日水文站为界,以上区域为黄河流域生态环境研究的源区范围,流域控制面积约4.49×104 km², 源区为高原湖泊沼泽地貌,地形平缓, 高寒半干旱气候, 受水热条件控制植被主要为草原化草甸;长江流域生态环境研究的源区以聂恰曲汇口为界,流域控制面积约12.24×104 km²。长江源区为高平原丘陵地貌,地形变化和缓,气候为高寒干旱半干旱气候,因范围广阔,分布高寒草原和高寒草甸植被。     

长江黄河源区生态环境脆弱性评价初探

基于综合性原则、主导因子原则和可操作性原则, 确定了长江黄河源区生态环境脆弱性的评价指标。依据县一级行政单位将长江黄河源区分为八大地区, 使用主成分分析法对各地区的生态环境进行综合评价, 基本可把源区的生态环境脆弱度分为五级: 极脆弱型、强脆弱型、中脆弱型、轻脆弱型和微脆弱型。 黄河源区的达日和玛沁县脆弱程度最高, 为极脆弱地区; 称多县为强脆弱地区; 玛多和杂多县脆弱程度中等, 为中脆弱地区; 治多和曲麻莱县属于轻脆弱地区, 长江源区西南部的唐古拉山乡脆弱度最小, 属于微脆弱地区。     

西部干旱区未来气候变化高分辨率预估

利用高分辨率区域气候模式WRF,基于CMIP5计划中MIROC5输出结果,进行了我国高分辨率(30 km)的历史模拟及未来预估。针对我国西部干旱区,在模式验证的基础上分析了该区域未来气温和降水的变化。历史模拟结果显示WRF对我国西部干旱区有较好的模拟能力,模拟结果较MIROC5有明显改进。21世纪西部干旱区将持续增暖,末期的增温幅度明显高于中期。和全国平均相比,西部干旱区21世纪增温幅度高于全国平均水平。空间分布上,年平均气温变化的主要特征是新疆南部增温高于新疆北部,山区的增温高于盆地。气温季节变化主要表现为夏季增温集中在山区,而冬季增温则更多集中在盆地。西部干旱区降水在21世纪总体呈现减少趋势,夏季降水减少更为明显,这和全国平均的降水增加并不一致。空间分布上,降水变化的主要特征是山区降水减少,其中夏季山区降水减少十分明显,而盆地降水则略有增加。     

黄河源区径流对气候变化的响应及未来趋势(英文)

This study examines the hydrological and meteorological data of the source region of the Yellow River from 1956 to 2010 and future climate scenarios from regional climate model (PRECIS) during 2010-2020. Through analyzing the flow variations and revealing the climate causes, it predicts the variation trend for future flows. It is found that the annual mean flow showed a decreasing trend in recent 50 years in the source region of the Yellow River with quasi-periods of 5a, 8a, 15a, 22a and 42a; the weakened South China Sea summer monsoon induced precipitation decrease, as well as evaporation increase and frozen soil degeneration in the scenario of global warming are the climate factors, which have caused flow decrease. Based on the regional climate model PRECIS prediction, the flows in the source region of the Yellow River are likely to decrease generally in the next 20 years.     

长江、黄河源区高寒湿地动态变化研究

长江、黄河源区是中国湿地分布面积最大的地区之一,近年来湿地面积减少、功能退化引起了严重的区域生态环境问题。为了定量分析湿地退化过程,利用1986年的TM和2000年的ETM 卫星遥感数据,在GIS软件支持下,用景观格局指数对长江、黄河源区15a来湿地的分布和变化进行了研究。结果表明,15a间,长江、黄河源区湿地面积减少了2744.77km2,平均减少率为1.2%/a。长江源湿地的退化比黄河源明显。湿地主要是由高寒沼泽草甸湿地向高寒草甸湿地、裸岩裸土地和高寒草原演变,以及由水域向滩地转变。各湿地景观类型斑块数增加,破碎度和分维数提高,优势度降低,湿地景观空间结构趋于复杂,景观异质性增加。15a间研究区湿地生态服务价值降低了37.86×108元。气候干暖化是造成源区湿地变化的主要因素,人类活动加剧了这一进程。     

长江黄河源区多年冻土变化及其生态环境效应

应用江河源区五站1980-1998年0cm、5cm、10cm、15cm、20cm、40cm浅层地温资料、钻孔深层地温资料以及勘探资料,详细分析了两大源区的冻土变化,结果表明:近20年来,受气候变暖影响,江河源区多年冻土总体上保存条件不利,区域上呈退化趋势。岛状多年冻土和季节冻土区年均地温升高约0 3～0 7℃,大片连续多年冻土区升幅较小,为0 1～0 4℃。多年冻土上限以2～10cm/a的速度加深。在黄河源多年冻土的边缘地带,垂向上形成不衔接冻土和融化夹层,多年冻土分布下界上升50～70m。冻土退化已对江河源寒区经济和生态环境产生了一系列重要影响。但是,冻土退缩及其对环境的影响还存在很大的不确定性。     

长江源区地表水资源对气候变化的响应及趋势预测(英文)

In this paper,variations of surface water flow and its climatic causes in China are analyzed using hydrological and meteorological observational data,as well as the impact data set(version 2.0) published by the National Climate Center in November 2009.The results indicate that surface water resources showed an increasing trend in the source region of the Yangtze River over the past 51 years,especially after 2004.The trend was very clearly shown,and there were quasi-periods of 9 years and 22 years,where the Tibetan Plateau heating field enhanced the effect,and the plateau monsoon entered a strong period.Precipitation notably increased,and glacier melt water increased due to climate change,all of which are the main climatic causes for increases in water resources in the source region.Based on global climate model prediction,in the SRESA1B climate change scenarios,water resources are likely to increase in this region for the next 20 years.     

浅析江河源区生态系统脆弱性研究的科学问题

长江、黄河源区位于青藏高原腹地,是我国气候变化的敏感区和脆弱区,面对全球气候变化以及我国冰冻圈萎缩的压力,明晰基于冰冻圈变化条件下江河源区生态系统脆弱性的科学问题,是长江、黄河流域生态安全保障及社会经济持续发展的客观要求。在分析江河源区范围、江河源区和我国冰冻圈的关系、目前生态系统脆弱性研究的基本特点的基础上,在全球气候变化和冰冻圈变化的复杂背景下,提出并阐述了江河源区生态系统脆弱性研究的5个重要科学问题：（1）脆弱性概念的延伸和拓展;（2）气候系统的非线性作用;（3）脆弱性评价的时空尺度;（4）脆弱性评价的临界阈值;（5）脆弱性评价的界面链接等。     

长江黄河源区高寒植被变化的NDVI记录

使用8 km分辨率Pathdfinder NOAA-AVHRR/NDVI时间序列数据, 对青藏高原长江、黄河源区1982~2001年地表植被覆盖的空间分布和时间序列变化进行了分析, 并在典型区NDVI与气温、降水量和浅层地温单相关关系分析的基础上, 在不考虑地温作用和考虑地温作用两种条件下, 构建了NDVI与气温、降水量和浅层地温的统计模型。结果表明：近20年来江河源区的植被覆盖总体上保持原状,　局部继续退化。黄河源区的扎陵湖、鄂陵湖周边及其北东部地区、巴颜喀拉山北麓的多曲源头地区、长江源区的曲麻莱和治多一带、托托河沿至伍道梁之间的青藏公路两侧一定范围、格拉丹冬局部地区年NDVI减少显著,　幅度在0%~20%之间,　植被退化严重。江河源区年NDVI的变化, 即植被覆盖状况的好坏主要受温度, 尤其是40 cm附近地温的影响, NDVI对40 cm的地温变化极为敏感。在江河源多年冻土区, 冻土冻融过程不仅与地温变化息息相关, 而且影响土壤含水量的多少, 冻土的退化将会直接影响该区植被的生长。     

黄河源区基流估算

河川基流在水安全、粮食安全、非点源污染评价、水资源评价和调查、水资源配置、工农业供水和降雨-径流关系模拟中有着重要的应用。黄河源区(唐乃亥水文站以上区域)的产水量占黄河流域的35%以上,是黄河流域的重要产水区,对黄河源区基流的估算就显得尤为重要。根据研究区域的气候特征,对加里宁法在本区域的应用提出了改进,并提出了新的计算程序。在此基础上,和电子滤波法进行了对比分析。结果表明,电子滤波法非常敏感,滤波参数β控制了基流在总径流中的比例,β与基流成负相关关系,对于不同的来水年份,其敏感性分析图形的形态都很相似;改进的加里宁法基流划分过程强烈地依赖于日过程线的起伏情况,基流一般随着退水系数的增加而增大,加里宁法分割的基流对于参数的变化并不敏感。     

黄河重要水源补给区甘南高原气候变化及其对生态环境的影响

利用甘南高原黄河重要水源补给区气候资料和生态观测资料及统计资料,分析研究区域气候变化特征及其草原湿地生态环境效应。结果表明,甘南高原黄河重要水源补给区降水量年际变化呈下降趋势,降水量的年际变化存在6~7a、15a的周期振荡特征。甘南高原黄河重要水源补给区气温年际变化呈上升趋势,增温速度大于全国增温速度。1980年之后持续偏暖,草地年干燥指数变化呈显著上升趋势。气候变化是草原生态退化的自然诱发因素,而超载过牧、滥采滥挖、人为破坏、生物链失衡等环境蠕变是造成生态退化的人为因素,二者共同作用导致黄河首曲草原湿地水资源锐减、生物多样性减少、生态环境退化。     

Alternate erosion and deposition in the Yangtze Estuary and the future change

Journal of Geographical Sciences - The morphological changing trend of the Yangtze Estuary, the largest estuary of Asia, has become a focus of research in recent years. Based on a long series of...