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1.
Investigating the reproductive ecology of naturalized species provides insights into the role of the source population's characteristics vs. post‐release adaptation that influence the success of introduction programmes. Introduced and naturalized Mallards Anas platyrhynchos are widely established in New Zealand (NZ), but little is known regarding their reproductive ecology. We evaluated the nesting ecology of female Mallards at two study sites in NZ (Southland and Waikato) in 2014–15. We radiotagged 241 pre‐breeding females with abdominal‐implant transmitters and measured breeding incidence, nesting chronology and re‐nesting propensity. We monitored 271 nests to evaluate nest survival, clutch and egg size, egg hatchability and partial clutch depredation. Breeding incidence averaged (mean ± se) 0.91 ± 0.03, clutch size averaged 9.9 ± 0.1 eggs, 94 ± 2% of eggs hatched in successful nests, partial depredation affected 6 ± 1% of eggs in clutches that were not fully destroyed by predators, and re‐nesting propensity following failure of nests or broods was 0.50 ± 0.003. Nesting season (first nest initiated to last nest hatched) lasted 4.5 months and mean initiation date of first detected nest attempts was 28 August ± 3.3 days. Smaller females were less likely to nest, but older, larger or better condition females nested earlier, re‐nested more often and laid larger clutches than did younger, smaller or poorer condition females. Younger females in Southland had higher nest survival; cumulative nest survival ranged from 0.25 ± 0.007 for adult females in Waikato to 0.50 ± 0.007 for yearling females in Southland. Compared with Mallards in their native range, the nesting season in NZ was longer, clutches and eggs were larger, and nest survival was generally greater. Different predators and climate, introgression with native heterospecifics and/or the sedentary nature of Mallards in NZ may have contributed to these differences.  相似文献   

2.
ABSTRACT.   In 2003 and 2004, we placed 41 floating nest platforms on Grassy Lake in southeastern Wisconsin (USA) to test the hypothesis that reproductive success of Black Terns ( Chlidonias niger ) is limited by the quality of suitable nesting habitat. Extreme differences in water levels between these 2 yr provided a natural experiment to evaluate the effectiveness of the nest platforms during a drought year (2003) when natural nesting substrate was abundant, and a flood year (2004) when natural substrate was limited during the peak nesting period. Terns nested on 27 of 41 (66%) of the platforms in 2003 and 26 of 41 (63%) in 2004. No difference in the occupancy rate of platforms and natural nests was evident in 2003, but the pattern of clutch initiations early in the season in 2004 indicated that platforms were preferred over natural substrates. In 2003, nest survival rates did not differ between nests placed on platforms and those placed on natural substrates, but platform nests had significantly higher hatching success and nest survival rates in 2004. Both the Kaplan-Meier and Apparent Nest Success methods of calculating nest survival provided similar estimates. In both years, eggs laid on platforms were significantly larger than those laid on natural substrates, suggesting that platforms were occupied by high-quality birds. Our study indicates that floating nest platforms can be an effective management tool to enhance nesting habitat for Black Terns and other aquatic birds that construct floating nests, primarily because platforms provide nest sites when natural sites are not available due to flooding. Nest platforms also may be useful for addressing questions concerning habitat selection and parental quality.  相似文献   

3.
为了扩大朱鹮(Nipponia nippon)种群的数量和分布区,于2018年7月从洋县引进20只朱鹮在北戴河建立了朱鹮野化种群。2020年繁殖期,北戴河共有22只朱鹮,其中成年朱鹮17只,雌雄性比为1.1;实际繁殖密度为37.8只/hm2;人工巢的密度为40.0巢/hm2,人工巢筐内径为50 cm。2020年繁殖期,北戴河朱鹮共配对8对,其中6对繁殖成功,营巢成功率为75%;共产卵33枚,平均窝卵数为(4.1±1.8)枚;出壳18只,孵化率54.5%;出飞13只,出飞率72.2%,繁殖成功率为39.4%,繁殖生产力为2.2±1.2。与洋县饲养种群相比,北戴河种群首枚卵的产卵时间晚17 d,与两地温差相吻合。北戴河朱鹮的窝卵数显著高于洋县种群,这可能是由种内巢寄生所致。监控录像表明,北戴河1巢朱鹮的窝卵数高达6枚,超过野生种群平均窝卵数(2或3枚)的2倍,推测发生了种内巢寄生行为。此外,还观察到8号巢朱鹮同时发生了婚外配和种内巢寄生行为,婚外配雌鸟将卵产在该雄鸟的巢中,使得窝卵数高达7枚。此后在该巢中发现3只朱鹮轮流孵卵,以及2只雌性朱鹮并排孵于同一巢中的异常情况。北戴河朱鹮的种内巢寄生行为可能是因网笼内人工巢址密度较高但隐蔽性较低所致,而婚外配行为可能与种群密度和繁殖密度过高有关。本文有关朱鹮异常繁殖行为的研究结果可为野化网笼内人工巢筐的设置和野化种源的选择提供参考,并提示我们进一步关注朱鹮在环境压力下的表型可塑性和生态适应能力。  相似文献   

4.
In a population of moorhens (Gallinula chloropus), at least27% of netting females laid one or more eggs in a neighbor'snest Females laid parasitically under three conditions: 56%of parasitic eggs were from nesting females that preceded layinga dutch in their own nest by a parasitic laying bout, 19% werefrom females whose nests were depredated before clutch completionand that laid the following egg parasiticaDy, and 25% were froma small number of females without territories, "non-nesting"parasites, that each laid a series of parasitic eggs. Clutchsizes varied greatly between females, but nesting females eachlaid a consistent clutch size both within and between seasonsfor a given mate and territory. Nesting females that employeda dual strategy of brood parasitism and parental care producedextra eggs that they laid in the nests of neighbors before layinga dutch in their own nests. Two out of ten females whose dutchesI experimentally removed during the laying period were successfullyinduced to lay their next egg in the nest of a neighbor. Nestingfemales that laid parasitically selected their hosts opportunisticallyfrom among the nests dosest to their territories. An experimentin which parasitic eggs were removed and hosts left to rearonly their own young showed that parasites did not choose hoststhat were better parents than pairs with contemporary neststhat were not parasitized. Females that only laid parasiticaDywithin a given season timed their parasitic laying bouts poorlyand achieved no reproductive success. Parasitic young rarelyfledged, and the mean seasonal reproductive success of nestingbrood parasites did not differ from that of nonparasitic females.However, the variance in reproductive success of nesting broodparasites was significantly higher than that of nonparasiticfemales.  相似文献   

5.
《Animal behaviour》1995,50(5):1309-1316
Three nesting behaviour patterns are documented in the plethodontid salamander Hemidactylium scutatum. A female may lay eggs (1) in a solitary nest and brood them, (2) in a joint nest and brood them as well as eggs of other females, or (3) in a joint nest that is brooded by another female. The hypothesis that population density was positively associated with joint nesting was tested by following two populations for 5 years and by experimentally manipulating the population density of nesting females in artificial habitats for the latter 2 years. The proportion of joint nests did not vary with density, although joint nests tended to contain eggs of more females at the high population density. Joint nests were usually brooded by one female; thus, most females that laid eggs in joint nests did not brood them at high density. The reproductive success, as measured by survival of embryos, of solitary and joint nesters was equivalent. Joint nests were deserted less often, however, which decreased the probability of catastrophic mortality. The number of days of brooding was significantly positively correlated with loss of body mass of females, suggesting a cost to brooding behaviour. Joint nesting with solitary brooding is not explained by aggressive usurpation of nests or by brood parasitism.  相似文献   

6.
Examination of spatial and temporal factors that influence nest survival can provide insight into habitat selection, reproductive decisions (e.g., clutch size), population dynamics, and conservation requirements for species. We used nest survival data for the Dusky Flycatcher Empidonax oberholseri to examine several factors that may influence nesting success. Our prediction was that the number of nest initiations would be positively associated with period nest survival. We used a model selection framework and found that nesting success was a function of clutch size and a cubic effect of age. Clutches with one, two, three, and four eggs had period survival rates of 0, 0.05, 0.33, and 0.49, respectively. Daily survival rates decreased from the onset of egg-laying and increased during the later stages of incubation before remaining relatively constant through the later portions of the nestling stage. Model-selection criterion provided support for a date effect on daily survival (i.e., daily nest survival declined across the nesting season) although the 95% confidence interval for the estimate included zero. We found that the majority of nest initiations occurred early in the nest season and declined across the season as period nest survival declined. Our prediction concerning nest survival was partially supported. In addition, we found substantial positive associations between clutch size and nest survival. While low daily survival rates for clutches with one or two eggs suggested that individuals may have reduced reproductive effort in response to nest predation risk, we did not find strong evidence that individuals reduced their clutch sizes in subsequent nest attempts. Alternative predictions, including the preferential settlement of higher quality individuals (e.g., those with the ability to lay full clutches to replace depredated nests) into high-quality habitat and differences in behavior patterns (e.g., number of visits to provision nestlings), may provide more consistent explanations for these patterns.  相似文献   

7.
The dependence of the breeding success of the eagle owl on the population dynamics of rodents, which are a staple of its diet in Mordovia, was traced. At peak numbers of rodents, large clutches and a high survival rate of fledglings were observed in the breeding pairs; after a year of depression of rodent populations, in the following year, the pairs do not nest at all or their breeding success is reduced to a minimum due to the death of the clutches. In 52% of the cases, the nesting pairs laid three eggs; in 31%, two eggs; in 9%, four eggs; in 4%, one egg or five eggs. The average clutch size was 2.78 ± 0.17. The average number of chicks grown from a successful nest was 2.41 ± 0.27. The nests in Mordovia were located at a distance of 1.1–3.7 km from residential areas.  相似文献   

8.
We studied the reproductive success of a wild Lesser Rhea population (Pterocnemia -Rhea- pennata pennata) during two reproductive seasons (2004/2005 and 2005/2006) in north-western Patagonia, Argentina. The parameters recorded included population and nest density, clutch size, hatching success, chick survival (up to 3 months of age) and percentage of chicks that reached the juvenile stage after the winter. We also estimated the percentage of males that attempted to nest and of those that were successful (those producing at least one chick), daily nest mortality rates (DNMR) at different stages of the nesting cycle and the probability that an egg that has been recently laid will produce a chick. On average, both years pooled, the density of this population of Lesser Rheas was 1.55 ± 0.2 individuals/km2 (SE), nest density was 0.17 ± 0.04 per km 2 , clutch size was 20.8 ± 6.4 eggs, hatching success was 74.4% ± 11.3, Mayfield’s probability of an egg that will produce a chick was 0.64, chick survival was 65.4% ± 14.5 and percentage of chicks that reached the juvenile stage was 26.3%. Nearly a quarter of Lesser Rhea males in the population attempted to nest during a breeding season, and the DNMR was significantly higher during the laying stage (most nest failures were due to anthropogenic disturbances related to livestock raising activities). Nesting success, hatching success, and chick survival of Lesser Rheas were higher than those of their most closely related species, the Greater Rhea (Rhea americana), whereas the percentage of chicks that reached the juvenile stage was similar due to high winter mortalities of chicks. We suggest that the increase in reproductive effort is a strategy of this species to overcome environmental constraints.  相似文献   

9.
Ost M  Wickman M  Matulionis E  Steele B 《Oecologia》2008,158(2):205-216
The energetic incubation constraint hypothesis (EICH) for clutch size states that birds breeding in poor habitat may free up resources for future reproduction by laying a smaller clutch. The eider (Somateria mollissima) is considered a candidate for supporting this hypothesis. Clutch size is smaller in exposed nests, presumably because of faster heat loss and higher incubation cost, and, hence, smaller optimal clutch size. However, an alternative explanation is partial predation: the first egg(s) are left unattended and vulnerable to predation, which may disproportionately affect exposed nests, so clutch size may be underestimated. We experimentally investigated whether predation on first-laid eggs in eiders depends on nest cover. We then re-evaluated how nesting habitat affects clutch size and incubation costs based on long-term data, accounting for confounding effects between habitat and individual quality. We also experimentally assessed adult survival costs of nesting in sheltered nests. The risk of egg predation in experimental nests decreased with cover. Confounding between individual and habitat quality is unlikely, as clutch size was also smaller in open nests within individuals, and early and late breeders had similar nest cover characteristics. A trade-off between clutch and female safety may explain nest cover variation, as the risk of female capture by us, mimicking predation on adults, increased with nest cover. Nest habitat had no effect on female hatching weight or weight loss, while lower temperature during incubation had an unanticipated positive relationship with hatching weight. There were no indications of elevated costs of incubating larger clutches, while clutch size and colony size were positively correlated, a pattern not predicted by the ‘energetic incubation constraint’ hypothesis. Differential partial clutch predation thus offers the more parsimonious explanation for clutch size variation among habitats in eiders, highlighting the need for caution when analysing fecundity and associated life-history parameters when habitat-specific rates of clutch predation occur.  相似文献   

10.
The reproductive efficiency, defined as the number of breeding recruits produced per egg laid; of intraspecific nest parasites; of hosts in parasitized nests; and of unparasitized nesting females, was measured for 14 years for lesser snow geese Anser caerulescens caerulescens nesting near Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. Relative efficiencies were 0.71–0.88, 0.91, and 1.0 for eggs of parasites, hosts, and unparasitized birds, respectively. Differences in the hatching probabilities of the three classes of eggs produced the efficiency differences. Parasitic success was limited by the parasites' failure to place more eggs than expected by chance into nests at the appropriate time relative to host incubation. Host nesting success was lower when more than one parasitic egg was added to the clutch. No differences in gosling survival and breeding recruitment probabilities were detected among any categories of goslings. Thus, hatching parasitic young are at no disadvantage relative to parental young, and there is no support for the hypothesis that increased success of host young at later stages of reproduction might offset negative effects at the egg stage. The hatching efficiency of parasitic eggs declined more rapidly than that of parental eggs as the parasitism rate increased. Efficiencies were similar when 3–4% of the eggs laid per year were parasitic, but relative parasitic efficiency was significantly lower when the parasitism rate was 8–9% or more. Using ancillary information and assumptions about the fecundity, viability, and behavioral flexibility of parasitic and parental females, we conclude that intraspecific nest parasitism could compete with nesting as a reproductive strategy in this population. The conditional use of parasitism by a large component of the population in certain years, however, combined with negative-frequency dependent success, limits the potential spread of a purely parasitic strategy in this population.  相似文献   

11.
The Lesser Rhea (Pterocnemia-Rhea-pennata pennata) has a complex reproductive system that combines polygyny with sequential polyandry, in which males build the nest, fully incubate the eggs and care for the young. As occurs with the Greater Rhea (Rhea americana), Lesser Rhea females sporadically lay eggs outside the nest (‘orphan’ eggs), which are not incubated and thus fail to hatch. We have examined the orphan eggs of Lesser Rhea over two separate breeding seasons to determine their abundance and fertility status. During 2004 and 2005, weekly ground searches for orphan eggs were conducted in a wild population of Lesser Rhea in northwestern Patagonia, Argentina. During these searches the total number of nests, eggs in each nest and orphan eggs laid outside the nests was recorded. Orphan eggs represented approximately 7% of the total eggs laid in a breeding season. Six fresh orphan eggs were artificially incubated, four of them being fertile. Orphan eggs seemed to have two origins: some were laid near deserted nests in the early to mid-reproductive season; others were probably laid by first-time breeders and were found later in the reproductive season. Given the near-threatened status of the Lesser Rhea, harvesting and artificial incubation of orphan eggs, which otherwise would be unproductive, may contribute significantly to the conservation of this species, i.e., ‘recovered’ birds could be used for reintroduction or reinforcement of wild Lesser Rhea populations.  相似文献   

12.
《Ostrich》2013,84(3):239-245
The breeding ecology of the Great-crested Grebe Podiceps cristatus was investigated over four consecutive years (2009-2012) at Lake Tonga, north-east Algeria. In all four years, the egg-laying period was relatively short, spanning two months (end of March to end of May), and bimodal. Nests were mainly located in Phragmites australis, over water of substantial depth (178 ± 43?cm, N=209), far from the shore and in habitat with low vegetation cover (12.37 ± 7.67%, N=209). The overall clutch size was 3.73 ± 0.92 eggs (N=127) and it decreased marginally over time. The overall nesting success was 70.4% (N=209), with nest failure caused mainly by predation (65%) and flooding (23%). Breeding outcome was significantly and positively related to nest size, with bigger nests conferring better survival to eggs and young probably through affording better protection during spells of adverse weather. However, the benefits of bigger nests may be confounded by the age or intrinsic quality of birds. The location of nests in P. australis, rather than other vegetation types, increased nesting success marginally but significantly. Two cases of interspecific mixed clutches involving the Great-crested Grebe were recorded.  相似文献   

13.
Migratory birds have a narrow time window to breed, especially in the Arctic, where early nesting typically yields the highest reproductive success. We assessed temporal changes (1991–2015) in reproductive success components in relation to timing of breeding in greater snow geese (Chen caerulescens atlantica). This species breeds in the Canadian Arctic, a region that has experienced a strong warming trend. We tested the effect of laying or hatching date, year and their interaction on six reproductive components: Total clutch laid, nesting success, egg survival, hatching success, prefledging, and postfledging survival. Over 25 years, mean laying date changed little, even though it advanced 1.8 days in early breeders and was delayed 3 days in late breeders. Likewise, the number of eggs in nests initiated early in the season decreased by 0.6 egg, whereas in late nests it increased by 0.3 egg. Success of nests initiated early and late in the season was lower than nests initiated near the population mean, and consistently increased over time. The proportion of eggs surviving to partial predation and postfledging survival decreased with laying date but the pattern did not change over time. In contrast, prefledging survival was not affected by laying date initially but declined in nests initiated late in the season toward the end of the study. Overall, nests initiated close to the population mean showed little temporal change for most components of reproductive success and seem to be less affected by environmental change than nests initiated early and late in the season.  相似文献   

14.
Despite the importance of maternal effects in evolution, and knowledge of links among nest site choice, timing of nesting, offspring sex, and reproductive success in animals with environmental sex determination, these attributes have not been rigorously studied in a combined and natural context. To address this need we studied the relationships between three maternal traits (nest site choice, lay date, and nest depth) and two fitness‐related attributes of offspring (hatchling sex and embryonic survival) in the riverine turtle Carettochelys insculpta, a species with temperature‐dependent sex determination, for four years. Predation and flooding were the major sources of embryonic mortality in 191 nests. Embryonic survival was influenced by both lay date and nest site choice: in one year when nesting began later than average, nests laid later and at lower elevations were destroyed by early wet season river rises. In other years early nesting precluded flood mortality. However, turtles did not nest at the highest available elevations, and a field experiment confirmed that turtles were constrained to nest at lower elevations where they could construct a nest chamber. The principal determinant of hatchling sex in 140 nests was lay date, which in turn was apparently related to the magnitude of the previous wet season(s). Clutches laid earlier in the season (a female's first clutch) produced mainly males, while later clutches (her second clutch) yielded mostly females, due to seasonal increases in air temperatures. Accordingly, later nesting produced female‐biased hatchling sex ratios in 1996, while earlier nesting resulted in sex ratios near unity in the other years. However, all‐female nests were more likely to be flooded than mixed‐sex or all‐male nests in years when nesting was late. In conclusion, we found evidence that the position of two maternal trait distributions (elevation of the nest site and lay date), associated with the reproductive strategy of C. insculpta, reflect a combination of natural selection, physical constraints, and phenotypic plasticity. © 2004 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2004, 81 , 1–16.  相似文献   

15.
The ostrich breeding system is complex and unique; communal clutches are laid by several females, although only one female, the major female, and the resident territorial male provide parental care. More eggs are laid in the nest than can be incubated and the major female ejects surplus eggs from the incubated central clutch. Microsatellite markers were used to analyse the parentage of communal nests in Nairobi National Park. This revealed that major females contributed a disproportionate number of fertile eggs to the central, incubated clutch and that multiple paternity and maternity within a nest were common; 68.9% of all incubated eggs on a nest were not parented by both the resident territorial male and the major female of that nest. All the males fertilized eggs on the clutches of neighbouring males. Unexpectedly, every major female with her own nest was also simultaneously a minor female with incubated eggs on neighbouring clutches. The relatedness between females laying in the same nest was not significantly different from the population average and significantly less than that between chicks hatched from the same nest.  相似文献   

16.
The breeding ecology of eastern olivaceous warblers Hippolais pallida is poorly known. In this study, we provide data on nest site selection and breeding parameters of the species in a population in northwestern Bulgaria, the only one known to be regularly and heavily parasitized by the common cuckoo Cuculus canorus (hereafter cuckoo). Eastern olivaceous warblers only bred within human settlements of the study area, avoiding seemingly suitable habitat outside them. Nests were built in a wide range of plant taxa but ailanthuses Ailanthus altissima and mulberries Morus spp. were most frequently used (21%). After taking into account the availability of vegetation, there was an apparent preference for several plant taxa but not for mulberries. Mean nest height was 1.65 ± 0.98 (0.53–7.60) m, n = 217, and it varied significantly among different types of nesting substrate. Laying date and clutch size of first breeding attempts averaged 10 June ± 0.98 days, n = 101 and 3.9 ± 0.07 (2–5) eggs, n = 72, respectively. Hatching success, fledging success, and breeding success were 42.5, 86.4, and 36.7%, respectively. The main sources of nest mortality were predation and cuckoo parasitism, with no significant difference in the proportion of nests lost to each. Cuckoo parasitism seemed responsible for the relatively low hatching success in this population.  相似文献   

17.
There is a poorly known rookery of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) nesting in sandy beaches of Chabahar town, northeastern Gulf of Oman, Iran.This study has been carried out to evaluate nesting activity of this small rookery in 2014 nesting season (June to October). In this study, total clutches were collected and transferred to an artificial hatchery. The peak of nesting occurred from the third parts of August to the end of September. Mean CCL was 106.3 ± 6 cm and mean CCW was 94.5 ± 5 cm. Females laid on average of 99.42 ± 47.8 eggs per clutch. The mean inter-nesting interval was 18.5 days. The observed clutch frequency was 3.4. Mean hatching success was 36.63 ± 4.1%. The incubation period was 61.07 ± 5.4 days. Nest status evaluation represented that major causes for the failure was unhatched egg with no obvious embryo followed by unhatched eggs with obvious but undeveloped embryos > unhatched eggs with developed embryos > hatched eggs but dead embryos. The results achieved in this study are a valuable contribution to cognition of the reproductive ecology of the green turtle population globally and regionally.  相似文献   

18.
Annual and seasonal variation in reproductive timing and performance were studied in a population of the Lesser Spotted Woodpecker Dendrocopos minor over 10 years in southern Sweden. The median laying date of the first egg varied by up to 17 days between years, being generally larger than the variation of laying dates within years. Neither clutch size, brood size in successful nests, fledging success in successful nests nor mean nestling weight differed significantly between years. There was no trend for mean clutch size to vary between early and late years. In spite of a more than threefold variation in population size, no reproductive variable demonstrated an apparent density-dependence. Within the season, clutch size declined steeply with increasing clutch initiation date, whereas fledging success and nesting success did not, leading to a trend in brood size almost identical to the trend in clutch size. The survival prospects of fledged young declined with increasing clutch initiation date, and it is argued that the clutch size laid is a strategic adjustment to laying date. Out of 124 breeding attempts, 34% did not produce fledged young. In 9% of the breeding attempts, pairs laid no eggs. At least 20% of the breeding attempts failed after egg-laying. The most common cause of breeding failure was loss of the breeding partner followed by nest abandonment (40% of the failures). Only 16–28% of the failures were due to predation on the nest. Most complete failures, and also partial losses from nests, occurred at the early breeding stages. It is argued that the early nestling phase may be a critical stage, which the woodpeckers adjust to coincide with the seasonal food peak, explaining the strikingly late breeding season compared with other non-migrant species.  相似文献   

19.
Abstract

Annual counts of nests with eggs or chicks (known nests) were made at blue penguin (Eudyptula minor) breeding sites on the Otago Peninsula in each November from 1994 to 1997. Although the population has doubled to an estimated 600 known nests over this period, the number of breeding sites on the Otago Peninsula has reduced since the 1970s. Breeding success at three areas at Taiaroa Head were monitored by regular nest checks in the breeding season from 1992 to 1998. At Taiaroa Head reproductive success ranged from 41 to 78% at the three sites during the seven‐year study and was generally higher for pairs nesting in nest boxes than for those in burrows. The percentage of breeding pairs that laid a second clutch after fledging at least one chick from their first clutch (double brooded) varied between seasons (0–48%) and was correlated with the date of the onset of breeding. Egg loss, possibly through predation by Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus), influenced the significantly lower reproductive success at one area (Area A) at Taiaroa Head during the 1996 season.  相似文献   

20.
Communal nesting lizards may be vulnerable to climate warming, particularly if air temperatures regulate nest temperatures. In southeastern Australia, velvet geckos Oedura lesueurii lay eggs communally inside rock crevices. We investigated whether increases in air temperatures could elevate nest temperatures, and if so, how this could influence hatching phenotypes, survival, and population dynamics. In natural nests, maximum daily air temperature influenced mean and maximum daily nest temperatures, implying that nest temperatures will increase under climate warming. To determine whether hotter nests influence hatchling phenotypes, we incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current ‘cold’ nests (mean = 23.2 °C, range 10–33 °C) and future ‘hot’ nests (27.0 °C, 14–37 °C). ‘Hot’ incubation temperatures produced smaller hatchlings than did cold temperature incubation. We released individually marked hatchlings into the wild in 2014 and 2015, and monitored their survival over 10 months. In 2014 and 2015, hot‐incubated hatchlings had higher annual mortality (99%, 97%) than cold‐incubated (11%, 58%) or wild‐born hatchlings (78%, 22%). To determine future trajectories of velvet gecko populations under climate warming, we ran population viability analyses in Vortex and varied annual rates of hatchling mortality within the range 78– 96%. Hatchling mortality strongly influenced the probability of extinction and the mean time to extinction. When hatchling mortality was >86%, populations had a higher probability of extinction (PE: range 0.52– 1.0) with mean times to extinction of 18–44 years. Whether future changes in hatchling survival translate into reduced population viability will depend on the ability of females to modify their nest‐site choices. Over the period 1992–2015, females used the same communal nests annually, suggesting that there may be little plasticity in maternal nest‐site selection. The impacts of climate change may therefore be especially severe on communal nesting species, particularly if such species occupy thermally challenging environments.  相似文献   

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