Explosions in Iraq, UK and Nigeria and more new refineries elsewhere

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Iraq's latest round of elections, on 15th December, returned mainly Shi'ite parties, to protests from Sunnis and some secular parties. The country continued to suffer from high levels of violence. Oil installations were bombed, and road-tanker drivers were attacked in what was clearly a move designed to stop the delivery of refined products to Baghdad. The oil minister, Ibrahim Bahr al-Ulum, resigned in protest against a government decision to increase Iraq's heavily subsidized fuel prices. He has been temporarily replaced by the Deputy Prime Minister, Ahmad Chalabi. Opposition to the price rises led to a 10-day strike at Iraq's main refinery at Baiji. Operations continued to be adversely affected after the strike because of sabotage to the 200,000 bpd pipeline bringing crude oil to Baiji from Kirkuk. Sabotage to a pipeline serving the Daura refinery cut production there, and severe gasoline shortages were reported across the Baghdad region. The export pipeline from Kirkuk to Ceyhan was reopened after being idle for most of 2005, but throughputs are nowhere near capacity levels. Exports of crude oil from Basrah were disrupted by power cuts and bad weather.     

Violence in Iraq and Nigeria, OPEC cuts output, admits Angola

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Iraq ended 2006 with its crude oil exports at zero, its oil industry in need of "urgent attention", according to a report delivered to the US President and Congress, and its domestic security situation spiralling out of control. The execution of former President Saddam Hussain on 30th December failed to pacify the country, as the government appears to have hoped, as more than 2,000 Iraqi civilians died during the month of December and US military casualties passed the 3,000 mark. Crude oil exports ceased as bad weather closed the Persian Gulf terminals of Basrah and Khor al-Amaya. Exports via Ceyhan were already at a standstill, following recent attacks on the pipeline from Kirkuk. The country's main refinery, at Baiji was closed for part of December following threats to workers there and an attack on its main supply pipeline from Kirkuk. The government tried to relieve the resulting shortage of refined products by arranging to import some 6,300 bpd of fuel from Iran. The black-market prices of some refined products were reported by the Arabic newspaper, al-Hayat to have reached record levels. The Oil Ministry estimated that Iraq's oil exports were 1.6 mn bpd during 2006. Iraq has agreed to supply Jordan with 10,000 bpd of crude oil at a discount of around $18/bbl.     

Iraqi violence, Saudi attack and further bombings

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Iraq moved closer to all-out civil war following an attack on the Imam Ali al-Hadi mosque in Samarra, one of Shi'i Islam's holiest shrines, on 22nd February. In the days that followed, several hundred Iraqis died in inter-communal violence. Attacks on installations close to the Basrah Oil Terminal were reported. Earlier in the month, the main oil storage facility in Kirkuk was bombed, forcing the Northern Oil Company to shut-in the 0.3 mn bpd field. Oil and electricity supplies in southern Iraq were cut by attacks on installations some 40 miles south of Baghdad. Turkey agreed to resume product exports to Iraq after a deal was agreed on repaying Iraqi debts of $1 bn to Turkish suppliers. An official Australian inquiry into illegal payments made under the UN's oil-for-food programme is to investigate allegations involving two Australian-controlled oil firms.     

Even more price records, new refineries and a technical hitch at the IPE

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
In a final burst before retreating, oil prices once again entered record territory. WTI went to $58.28 a barrel, while Brent shot up to $57.65. In Asia, meanwhile, Malaysia's benchmark Tapis grade climbed above $61.00. The scramble to buy crude oil finally began to show up in stock levels, however, and US inventory figures showing an 8% year-on-year rise at the start of April suggested that fears of a crude oil shortage were overplayed. Prices fell sharply leaving Brent and WTI just above $51.00 a barrel. An announcement by OPEC's president, Ahmad Fahad Al Sabah, that the cartel would produce an additional 500,000 bpd in May helped to relax fears further. Product prices remained relatively more robust on a combination of high demand in the US and Asia and unscheduled refinery maintenance in the US.     

Violence in Iraq, sabotage in Nigeria and strikes in Europe

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
An upsurge of violence in Iraq threatened a recovery in output that began earlier this year. Production in the northern fields hit a post-invasion high of 620,000 bpd in March, rising by 180,000 bpd in one month. Fighting in the south, however, cut production there by more than 100,000 bpd as government troops tried to subdue Shi'ite militias in and around Basrah. Oil installations damaged in the south included a pipeline and a pumping station. The Iraqi government nevertheless announced that oil production would reach 2.9 mn bpd by the year's end, requiring an increase of nearly 500,000 bpd over April 2008 levels. Foreign help is to be sought via a series of technical service agreements and - later this year - an upstream licensing round. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry says it wants a bigger role for Japanese oil companies in both the upstream and downstream sectors in Iraq. Kurdistan says it is negotiating with Baghdad to export oil produced from new oil fields there. The central government does not recognize production agreements drawn up by the Kurdistan Regional Government. The EU - desperate for gas to fill its Nabucco pipeline - has approached Iraq for up to 1 bn cfd.     

Prices back up, sulphur problems and French on strike

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Oil prices eased during May until fears of a winter heating oil shortage in the US caused middle distillate and crude oil prices to strengthen, pushing Brent back above $50 a barrel by early June, whilst in the US, WTI figures futures topped $55. Concerns about winter heating oil so early in the year gave rise to fears of even higher prices by autumn. Venezuelan President, Hugo Chavez, stated meanwhile that "most OPEC members" thought $50 a "fair price" for crude oil.     

Markets nervous, problems in Nigeria and troubles with spelling

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
The capture in late March of 15 British sailors and Royal Marines caused crude oil prices to rise sharply on fears of a worsening situation in the Persian Gulf. WTI rose by $2 a barrel to just over $66. Product markets went up as well as French dock workers went on strike in Marseilles, stranding oil tankers and forcing three nearby refineries to cut their runs. The dockers were protesting against a decision by Gaz de France to use its own staff to handle vessels at a new LNG terminal. The strike was eventually settled after 17 days. There was more trouble for foreign oil companies operating in Nigeria with further violence, kidnappings and damage to installations. Shell, which had some 475,000 bpd shut-in at the beginning of March, was temporarily forced to cut production by a further 190,000 bpd when a pipeline was damaged. It was not immediately clear what had caused the problem. Around 700,000 bpd was reported shut-in across the whole of Nigeria in mid-March, including fields operated by ENI, Total and Chevron, as well as Shell, which has been hardest hit. Attempts to raise production in Nigeria are being hampered by the refusal of some oilfield service companies to work there. A meeting of OPEC ministers on 15th March in Vienna decided not to make any further cuts in production and to continue those previously agreed in Doha and Abuja. Angola attended the meeting for the first time as a full member but was not asked to join the cartel's quota system.     

Prices down, supplies down, prices back up

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
WTI fell below $70/bbl in early June on reports that Iran was considering a proposal from the EU and the UN to resolve the dispute over Tehran's plans to develop nuclear power. Sellers took further encouragement from the news that the Iraqi leader of al-Qaida, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, had been killed. July WTI futures went down as far as $69.10/bbl. The euphoria proved to be short-lived. Within a short time, Iran announced that it was to resume the enrichment of uranium, whilst in Iraq, there was no sign whatever that the killing of one terrorist leader was going to bring about peace there. During the month of June, an estimated 1,500 people were killed in Baghdad alone. Attacks on road tankers caused the suspension of exports of heavy fuel oil, which is produced to excess by Iraq's refining industry. Lacking anywhere to store the surplus fuel oil, the government ordered what were described as 'large quantities' to be incinerated. The one piece of good news from Iraq was the reopening of the export pipeline from Kirkuk to Ceyhan for the first time since January. Throughput was reported in late June at 325,000 bpd. Even here, though, the situation was not entirely without its troubles. The state marketing company, SOMO, received disappointing bids for the oil it was offering for sale at Ceyhan.     

OPEC abandons quotas, more violence in Nigeria and British give away gas

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
OPEC ministers meeting in Vienna on 11th September agreed to leave the production ceiling unchanged at 28 mn bpd. The cartel, however, is to move away from formal quotas to a system of adjusting total production to world demand. The change recognizes the fact that many OPEC countries cannot produce their full quota allowances. The new policy is described by OPEC as trying "to ensure that supply and demand (remain) in balance with prices at reasonable levels". "Reasonable levels" were not defined in the communiqué, but most ministers agreed they should be in the region to $60-65/bbl. The oil markets were sceptical and prices fell below $60, reaching a seven-month low at the start of October. Nigeria announced a production cut of 120,000 bpd, though this may be a recognition of the difficulty of producing oil there at present. During September, the country was plagued by further violence in the Niger Delta, including attacks on oil workers, kidnappings and sabotage to oil installations. Oil workers went on strike for two days, threatening further walk-outs. By late September, nearly 875,000 bpd of production was estimated shut-in as a result of the current unrest. Shell said it had suspended plans to repair damaged facilities in the Niger Delta because of the continuing high level of violence.     

Still more records, Iraqi violence and Caspian exports

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Oil prices set further records at the start of May before falling back. December WTI hit an all-time high of $78.00/bbl on Nymex on 3rd May. IPE November Brent went up to a record $76.45/bbl. Both contracts eventually settled lower and prices in general weakened before staging a minor rally at the end of the month. Other price records were broken early in the month. In Asia, the Indonesian marker grade, Minas, was recorded at $74.04/bbl on 2nd May, whilst Malaysia's Tapis went above $76.70/bbl. Strong Asian demand also boosted the prices of West African crudes. The markets appeared to be reacting to growing tensions in Iraq, Iran and Nigeria. These considerations returned to haunt the markets later in the month. All crude oil loadings at Iraq's Persian Gulf marine terminal were suspended following a fire, though the main Gulf terminal at Basrah continued to operate. The Ceyhan terminal remained out of action. Tensions between the US and Iran over the latter's nuclear programme gave rise to fears of an embargo on Iranian oil exports. Several foreign oil workers were kidnapped following an armed attack on oil installations in Nigeria. OPEC ministers kept their production ceiling unchanged at 28 mn bpd at a meeting in Caracas.     

Oil prices in 2005: reading the runes

The year 2004 ranks alongside 1973 and 1979 as one of the most dramatic in the history of oil. As in the other two oil shocks, oil prices rose to unprecedented heights and the year ended with markets in a state of nervous uncertainty. Between early February and late October the prices of most crudes rose by nearly 80%, pushing many of the key reference grades above $50.00 a barrel for the first time ever. On Friday 22nd October, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was quoted at $56.30, whilst on the same day Brent reached $52.15. The following Monday, Malaysia's Tapis blend hit $55.50.     

Record violence in Iraq, unrest in Nigeria and refineries galore

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
A United Nations' survey estimated the number of violent deaths in Iraq during October at 3,709: the highest monthly total since the US-led invasion formally ended in May 2003. The 23rd November saw the highest daily total of civilian casualties - over 200 dead - when a Shi'ite quarter of Baghdad known as Sadr City was bombed by terrorists. Four days later, major damage was caused to the Kirkuk oilfield by a mortar attack on the field's main oil-processing centre. The following day, all output from the 300,000 bpd field was reported to have ceased. The field is the principal source of crude supply to the Baiji refinery complex serving Baghdad. The growing violence in Iraq has also prevented the delivery of some 10,000 bpd of crude oil to Jordan under a contract that was signed in August. The oil has to be delivered by road, in the absence of any pipeline between the two countries, but it is now considered too dangerous to operate such a large supply convoy across Iraq (for further developments in Iraq, see 'Focus').     

More price records, more unrest and more refineries

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Oil prices continued to set new records despite a decision by OPEC to raise production by 0.5 mn bpd to 27.5 mn bpd from 16th March. On 1st April, WTI futures in New York set a new closing high of $57.27 a barrel, having traded earlier in the day at $57.70. IPE Brent remained just below its previous record, touching $56.15. Crude oil's strength pushed the official prices of some Asian crudes to record levels, including Malaysia's benchmark Tapis grade, which was set at $58.89 a barrel. Product prices rose to new highs as well. In New York, May heating oil reached $1.6638/gall and May gasoline settled at $1.7310 on 1st April, while, in Europe, gasoline rose to an all-time high of $558/t. The market's view on OPEC's decision was that the rise in output was too little, too late. Even a statement by the cartel's President, Shaikh Ahmad Fahd Al Sabah, that OPEC would consider a further rise of 0.5 mn bpd for May did nothing to calm fears.     

Hurricane in US, chaos in Iraq and even more price records

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
A hurricane named Katrina devastated oil installations along the US Gulf Coast as well as the city of New Orleans, sending oil prices to new record levels. Nearly 1.4 mn bpd of offshore oil production was shut-in, along with 8.3 bn cfd of the Gulf's natural gas. More production was closed down onshore along with nearly 2.4 mn bpd of refining capacity. Crude and product prices shot up worldwide. The 30th August saw October WTI close at a record $69.81/bbl, having traded earlier in the day up to $70.85/bbl. On 31st August, Nymex gasoline closed at a new high of $2.6145/gall as the Gulf Coast's refineries remained off-line. Gulf spot prices rose above $3/gall. The following day, October heating oil set a new record by closing at $2.1985/gall. Records fell outside the US, with Tapis at $70.97 on 31st August. The previous day saw IPE October Brent settle at a record $67.57, whilst the November and December contracts both saw trades above $69.00/bbl. Natural gas prices also moved into record territory in the US, topping $12 per mn BTU on Nymex during the morning of 30th August.     

Economics, fundamentals, technology, finance, speculation and geopolitics of crude oil prices: an econometric analysis and forecast based on data from 1990 to 2017

It is of real and direct significance for China to cope with oil price fluctuations and ensure oil security. This paper aims to quantitatively analyze the specific contribution ratios of the complex factors influencing international crude oil prices and to establish crude oil price models to forecast long-term international crude oil prices. Six explanatory influential variables, namely Dow Jones Indexes, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development oil stocks, US rotary rig count, US dollar index, total open interest, which is the total number of outstanding contracts that are held by market participants at the end of each day, and geopolitical instability are specified, and the samples, from January 1990 to August 2017, are divided into six sub-periods. Moreover, the co-integration relationship among variables shows that the contribution ratios of all the variables influencing Brent crude oil prices are in accordance with the corresponding qualitative analysis. Furthermore, from September 2017 to December 2022 outside of the sample, the Vector Autoregressive forecasts show that annually averaged Brent crude oil prices for 2017–2022 would be $53.0, $61.3, $74.4, $90.0, $105.5, and $120.7 per barrel, respectively. The Vector Error Correction forecasts show that annual average Brent crude oil prices for 2017–2022 would be $53.0, $56.5, $58.5, $60.7, $63.0 and $65.4 per barrel, respectively.     

Determination of the functional groups and the melting point of iraqi asphaltenes

A qualitative analysis study of n-C5 asphaltene of Iraqi crude oil from (Al-Dura, Kirkuk and Basra) oil fields was done using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR). The melting points of the three oil derived asphaltenes were determined using Hot stage polarizing microscope at 180?°C for Al-Dura, 125?°C for Kirkuk and 140?°C for Basra asphaltenes. The FTIR spectrum shows an aromatic behavior of the asphaltene samples at a wavelength of 3049?cm^?1 and aliphatic chains were found at wavelengths 2924?cm^?1.     

Gasoline records, Nigerian troubles and security problems

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Gasoline reached record prices in the US as inventories fell and demand rose. Average retail prices hit $3.11/gal in mid-month before falling slightly. Supplies were squeezed by a series of unexpected refinery shutdowns and problems were reported meeting new fuel specification ( see 'Focus', March 2006 ). Partly in response to the lower than expected refinery runs, the price differential of WTI fell to a record $6.30/bbl below BFO. The US remained generally oversupplied with crude oil despite the temporary loss of 100,000 bpd of Alaska North Slope (ANS) production in yet another disruption to BP's operations there ( see 'The Month in Brief', November 2006 ). President George W Bush meanwhile declared that federal government departments must investigate further ways of improving US energy efficiency.     

Economic Performance of China’s Oil and Petrochemical Industry in First Quarter

International oil price continued souring in the first quarter of 2008. It was bouncing up and down above $100/barrel and even getting close to $120/barrel by the end of April. Products related to energy and resources all responded with higher prices, triggering a general increase in cost of petroleum and petrochemical industry. World＇s economy was seriously affected by USA＇s subprime lending crisis, weakening US dollar, sullen stock markets, and etc, major economies lowered their expectations for economic growth rate. China also stipulated a series of adjusting policies, such as policies concerning labor costs, environment protection, export tariff rebate, and so on. Influences by the combination of the situation and new policies, plastic products and textile and other labor extensive sectors for export witnessed reduction of export and some petroleum and petrochemical products were over supplied than actually demanded.     

劣质原油加工企业增产汽油的实践

介绍了国内某单套系列千万吨级炼油厂为降低柴汽比、增产汽油,在加工高硫劣质原油条件下,通过优化生产方案、增产催化裂化原料、拓宽连续重整原料、优化全厂工艺流程、精细化操作、优化汽油调合方案、实行产品质量卡边控制等多项措施,每月增产汽油约25 kt。汽油与柴油净价差按499 RMB$/t计,全年累计增效1.5×108RMB$。实践结果表明,劣质原油加工企业增产汽油工作取得了较好的成效,提高了企业经济效益,同时为满足市场汽油需求做出了贡献。     

More price records, Iraqi tensions and oil companies in court

This section summarizes downstream developments of the previous month. Exploration & Production are covered in 'Upstream Review'.
Oil prices ended October at record levels. Spot month Brent futures hit $91.18/bbl before settling at a record $90.63/bbl on 31st October. WTI went as high as $95.28/bbl before settling-again at a record-of $94.53/bbl. Traders were worried about political tensions in the Middle East and US markets were spooked by a fall in crude inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for Nymex crude. Product prices rose sharply, boosted by a fire at the Coryton refinery in England. Gasoline barges rose above $800/t in North West Europe. Across the world in Asia, jet fuel went above $100/bbl for the first time in Singapore, just as the first Airbus 380 airliner completed its maiden flight from Singapore to Sydney.