A New Integrated MADM Technique Combined with ANP,FTOPSIS and Fuzzy Max-Min Set Method for Evaluating Water Transfer Projects

In sustainable water resources management, it is essential to rank inter-basin water transfer projects. This task is difficult due to many different conflict criteria, complex relations among criteria and various judgments of decision makers. In this paper, an integrated multiple attribute group decision making method consists of ANP (Analytical Network Process), fuzzy TOPSIS and fuzzy max-min set methods is proposed for evaluating water transfer projects. A set of over 60 criteria in social, environmental and economic sectors are used for ranking four water transfer projects in Karun River based on three decision maker judgments. A key novelty of the proposed methodology is its ability to model both complex relations among different criteria in water management and the influence of decision maker judgments’ weights on the final ranking in group decision making problem. The procedure starts by obtaining the priority of water transfer projects and the weight of each decision maker judgments by employing ANP and fuzzy TOPSIS, respectively. These weights are used as inputs in the fuzzy max-min set method. Then the effects of decision maker weights on the final ranking are determined in fuzzy environment. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of decision makers’ weights has been conducted. The results show that the proposed method is an effective tool for group decision making problems by considering different criteria and decision makers’ weights.     

大连市水资源利用与宏观经济协调发展规划多目标群决策模型与方法

以大连市水资源开发利用与宏观经济协调可持续发展为研究背景，建立了大连市宏观经济水资源发展规划多目标群决策模型。根据该决策模型具有的多层次多目标多决策者的特点，结合陈守煜建立的工程模糊集理论与切比雪夫决策方法，提出了模糊切比雪夫多目标群决策方法。结果表明，该决策模型与模糊切比雪夫多目标群决策方法是有效和可行的。     

考虑权重折衷系数的模糊识别方法及在水资源评价中的应用

针对过去单一考虑主观权重或客观权重的多目标识别模式的缺陷，通过引入主观权重与客观权重折衷系数的概念，提出了一种新的兼顾主观与客观统一的模糊识别的非线性模型，并给出了计算方法。模型同时考虑了决策者意图和方案本身属性，因而可使方案排序结果更为合理适用，最后将其应用于区域水资源可持续利用程度的评价中，实例表明，该模型科学实用。     

A Simulation-Based Optimization Model for Flood Management on a Watershed Scale

Using structural and nonstructural measures for flood damage reduction is a long-standing problem in water resources planning and management. In the present study, an algorithm is presented for the optimal design of structural and nonstructural flood mitigation measures based on simulation-based optimization approach. For this purpose, the MIKE-11 simulation model, a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model, was used to calculate the potential damages of different flood scenarios under the various combinations of structural and nonstructural measures and this model was coupled with the NSGA-II multi-objective optimization model to provide the optimal Pareto solutions between two conflict objectives of minimizing the investment costs of flood mitigation measures and the potential damages of the floodplain. The proposed model was then applied to a small watershed in central part of Iran as a case study and the optimal trade-off solutions were calculated for different flood scenarios. Using these trade-offs, for each level of funding, decision makers can assign the optimal design of flood mitigation measures considering decision criteria.     

Water pollution control in the river basin by fuzzy genetic algorithm-based multiobjective programming modeling

Designing water quality management strategies is often complicated by the difficulty in simultaneously considering large amounts of relevant data, applicable submodels, competing objectives, unquantifiable factors, nonlinear characteristics, and uncertainty during parameterization. Mathematical optimization techniques offer promise in identifying optimal or satisfactory strategies that may be used as benchmarks for decision making. Newer optimization techniques such as genetic algorithm (GA) and fuzzy mathematical programming make the search for optimal control strategies in an uncertain environment more feasible. Using a probabilistic search procedure that emulates Darwinian natural selection, GAs allow multicriteria decision making with respect to both nonlinear feature and fuzzy characteristics to be incorporated directly into the optimization process and generate trade-off curves between cost and environmental quality while identifying good control strategies. This paper verifies such a discovery by a case study of water quality control in the Tseng-Wen river basin in Taiwan.     

Fuzzy AHP Assessment of Water Management Plans

There are two mainstreams when using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). One is the standard applications of crisp distributive and ideal mode versions. The other is characterised by fuzzification of the AHP methodology and by attempts to better tackle inherently uncertain and imprecise decision processes with quantitative and qualitative data. The latter is characterised by different approaches to fuzzificating the decision problem; the way of conducting judgment and evaluating process; and finally, in synthesising the results and manipulating fuzzy numbers to devise priorities for the decision alternatives. This paper presents a fuzzy methodology for solving fully structured decision problems with criteria, sub-criteria and alternatives. It follows the logic of AHP in a simple and straightforward manner, efficiently aggregates criteria and sub-criteria into unique hierarchical level and applies a total integral method for comparing decision alternatives. The proposed methodology has been used for the assessment of water management plans in part of the Paraguacu River Basin in Brazil.     

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the Purposes of Groundwater Control System Design

The best way for an engineer or scientist to express their knowledge, experience and opinions is day-to-day verbal communication. When a decision needs to be made about an optimal groundwater control system, the decision-making criteria need not always be numerical values. If fuzzy logic is used in multi-criteria decision-making, the criteria are described by linguistic variables that can be represented through fuzzy membership and expert judgment is used to describe such a system. Prior hydrodynamic modeling of the aquifer regime defines the management scenarios for groundwater control and provides an indication of their effectiveness. In this paper, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is applied to deal with a trending decision problem such as the selection of the optimal groundwater management system. Linguistic variables are used to evaluate all the criteria and sub-criteria that influence the final decision and the numerical weights of each alternative are determined by mathematical calculations. The paper presents a part of the algorithm – fuzzy optimization in hydrodynamic analysis, which leads to the selection of the optimal groundwater control system. The proposed method is applied in a real case study of an open-cast mine.     

PROMETHEE with Precedence Order in the Criteria (PPOC) as a New Group Decision Making Aid: An Application in Urban Water Supply Management

In this paper, a new group Multi-Criteria-Decision-Making (MCDM) method is introduced by combining two ??Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE)?? and ??Multi-attribute decision making with dominance in the criteria?? methods. PROMETHEE family of outranking methods is among the recently developed MCDM methods which have received lots of attention in the recent years because of its capacity in ranking finite set of alternative actions based on conflicting criteria. The second method helps the decision makers to consider ambiguity and imprecision of relative importance of each objective (criterion) without allocating importance weights to them. The proposed method of PROMETHEE with Precedence Order in the Criteria (PPOC) not only can address capabilities of PROMETHEE method just with determination of precedence order of criteria, but also can make it possible to have a group decision making environment with conflicting objectives. Operational management of an urban water supply system is a good example of a set of decision making problems with several objectives and Decision Makers (DMs). In this paper, PPOC method has been applied to the case study of Melbourne water supply system, previously analyzed in the literature, to assess a number of operation rules with respect to eight criteria evaluated under single or group decision-making situations. The satisfaction degree of each DM and the overall group ranking results have also been provided in the paper. The proposed method is applicable for different decision making problems in urban water supply management.     

熵模糊物元分析法在水库正常高水位决策中的应用

基于信息熵理论和模糊物元分析理论,探讨了水库正常高水位的熵模糊物元决策模型.以待选方案与最优方案间的海明贴近度来决策水库正常高水位.在确定评价综合指标信息熵的熵权和专家知识权重的的过程中,充分挖掘待选方案的固有信息和避免个人主观因素的弊端.实例应用表明,该方法有效、可行.     

Consideration of Trends in Evaluating Inter-basin Water Transfer Alternatives within a Fuzzy Decision Making Framework

Evaluation of water supply schemes is an essential task for meeting the goals of inter-basin water transfer project system management. In general, water supply operation involves multi-objective and multifactor optimization and decision. In recent years, multicriterion decision making (MCDM) has emerged as an effective methodology due to its ability to combine quantitative and qualitative criteria for selection of the best alternative. This paper presents a new optimization method using fuzzy pattern recognition to appraise the water supply decision schemes in inter-basin diversion systems. The proposed method is capable to incorporate not only the will of the decision-makers but also the future development trend of water resources and water supply demand and makes the optimization results more reasonable and applicable. One case study for the Xi-River-to -Tanghe Reservoir Water Transfer Project System in China is presented to demonstrate the application of this method.     

A Life Cycle Oriented Multi‑objective Optimal Maintenance of Water Distribution: Model and Application

Aiming at trading off several conflicting criteria in practical maintenance in a deteriorating water distribution network, a life cycle oriented multi-objective optimization model of water distribution network maintenance is developed, which is composed of seven interrelated sub-models with different functions. This model can provide decision support for preventive maintenance decision, including identifying the pipeline that needs to be maintained, judging the time point for maintenance, determining the type of maintenance technology, calculating the economic cost of maintenance, and presenting the impact under different maintenance strategies. Based on the life cycle of each pipeline, multiple effects in the water distribution can be dynamically evaluated, such as pipeline age, failure rate, hydraulic reliability health level etc. Based on special design of chromosome gene encoding, the algorithm of elitist Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II) is incorporated to achieve multi-objective optimization solution effectively. With application of a county in Zhejiang province in China, three strategies including empirical decision single-objective optimization decision and multi-objective optimization decision are evaluated and compared to the baseline systematically. Although the annual maintenance cost of strategy III is not the lowest among those three strategies, the pipeline age, failure rate, hydraulic reliability, and health level of the water distribution network under the strategy are at the best level. With multiple objectives considered simultaneously, the results of strategy III are recommended as the optimal maintenance implementation arrangements. This model can promote to find an optimal maintenance strategy, and provide a technical support for the planning, design and implementation of maintenance arrangements of water distribution network in a long-term period.

     

Inter-Municipal Landfill Site Selection Using Analytic Network Process

Selecting the most suitable landfill site is important to prevent any negative ecological and socio-economic effects. Spatial analysis takes into consideration local environmental regulations and adopted acceptance criteria that are important considerations in site selection. This paper is a case study to determine the suitability of an inter-municipal solid waste landfill site for the city of Khomeynishahr and its six adjacent cities, with a total population of half a million people. A multi-criteria evaluation method emphasising geographical information systems (GIS) techniques was used to identify suitable landfill sites. A combination of Boolean logic, Fuzzy logic and Analytic Network Process (ANP) was used for prioritising the associated criteria and selecting a suitable landfill site. This method is capable of being applied to complex problems with uncertainty and non-hierarchical structure and allows for the consideration of interdependence relationships of decision criteria within and between levels. Taking advantage of the ANP method, the selected landfill site priorities can be identified by considering the variation and relative importance of decision criteria for each site, which cannot be considered in other decision-making methods, such as Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The results showed the significant importance of residential area and water resources protection in landfill site selection. This study indicates that the integrated method can provide environmental decision makers and planners with a promising tool.     

A Compromise Ratio Method with an Application to Water Resources Management: An Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set

Water resources management can be regarded as an iterative process of general decision making considering the applications and modifications of waters and related lands within a geographic region. This process helps decision makers to balance their diverse requirements and applications of water as an environmental resource, and to recognize how their activities can have impacts on the long-term sustainability. This paper introduces a new compromise ratio method based on Atanassov’s intuitionistic fuzzy sets under multiple criteria in real-life situations. Atanassov’s intuitionistic fuzzy weighted averaging (AIFWA) operator is applied to aggregate individual judgments of the decision makers to rate the relative importance of the selected criteria and potential alternatives. Then a new Atanassov’s intuitionistic fuzzy ranking index is proposed to analyze the potential alternatives. Finally, the performance of the proposed fuzzy decision-making method is illustrated to a real water resources management problem from the recent literature. Computational results demonstrate that the presented method can be utilized in a large-scale multi-level assessment process to assist the decision makers the optimal solution among the potential alternatives with multiple conflicting and compromising criteria.     

基于模糊控制原理的多目标决策方法

在模糊控制原理的基础上,对于含有定性变量的多目标决策问题提出了一种新的求解方法:先把目标值与权重进行模糊化,再通过模糊推理和反模糊化过程直接得到各方案的评价值,进而进行多目标决策.具体实例的计算结果表明,该方法具有简单、实用、直观的优点.     

Effect of Averaging Operators in Fuzzy Optimization of Reservoir Operation

Fuzzy multiobjective decision makingmodels generally rely on the aggregation of theobjectives to form a decision function. The generalizedaveraging operator is usually adopted for aggregatingmultiple and unequal objectives because it allows trade-off amongst the objectives, and has been shown to besuitable to model human decision making behavior. In thefield of water resource management, most of the decision-making problems involving the generalized averagingoperator implicitly assume the decision maker (DM) israther optimistic. The analysis of the DM's behaviorduring the aggregation process and its impact on theperformance of the system, has therefore never beenaddressed by many researchers and decision makers. Theaim of this paper is to investigate the relationshipbetween decision makers' index of optimism and the long-term performance of a reservoir resource. Morespecifically, the generalized averaging operator, whoseparameter can be interpreted as the DM's index ofoptimism, is imbedded into a fuzzy stochastic dynamicprogram (FSDP). This approach is developed andimplemented to derive optimal operating policies for thehydroelectric complex of the Uruguay River basin inSouthern Brazil. FSDP-derived policies with differentindices of optimism are then compared with simulation. Weshow that system performance may be influenced by thedecision maker's behavior during the aggregation, andthat the optimistic assumption may not yield tosatisfactory results, especially during critical timeperiods.     

基于组合决策的黄河流域水量调度方案评价方法

为定量评价黄河流域水量调度方案的优劣,选出水资源综合效益最大的方案,结合黄河流域实际特点,选择可供水量、利津入海水量、龙羊峡水库期末水位等10项指标为评价体系,在模糊优选法、灰色关联分析法、集对分析法等评价方法的基础上建立了组合决策模型,综合考虑各方案在不同评价方法下的优劣顺序,帮助决策者做出准确判断和选择。结果表明,组合决策方法克服了单一决策方法的不足,能够综合考虑各评价指标的重要性,较为科学合理地确定出最优方案。     

南水北调中线一期工程丹江口大坝加高方案的论证与决策

丹江口水库是南水北调中线工程的水源地，大坝加高是关键性控制工程。本文从工程效益、移民、投资、经济、环保等方面对丹江口水库大坝加高方案进行了综合分析，选取主要影响因素，用多目标决策分析方法对加高方案进行了论证。通过对正常蓄水位170m方案和165m(加泵站)方案进行的模糊评价隶属度计算，得出170m方案较优的结论。     

Flood Vulnerability Analysis by Fuzzy Spatial Multi Criteria Decision Making

Prioritization the sub-basins available in a basin to flood vulnerability analysis can be discussed in the form of a spatial multi criteria decision making (SMCDM) problem. In this research a fuzzy planning support system based on the spatial analysis using tow multi criteria decision making methods, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and TOPSIS (Technique for order-preference by similarity to ideal solution) is used. AHP method is used to determine the structure of decision making process and to estimate criteria weights and TOPSIS model is used to rank the sub-basins of Tehran urban basin as a study area regarding the flood vulnerable areas. Also in order to perform spatial analysis for decision-making process, a developed toolbox is used within the Geographic Information System (GIS). In this research a model is presented in which some vague concepts such as weight of decision making criteria are expressed in the form of linguistic variables to be converted to triangular fuzzy numbers. Finally, the sensitivity of model was analyzed by changing the weights of decision making criteria and providing of ranking scenarios. The results show the optimum alternatives for mitigation flood vulnerability in the study area.

     

基于熵权的水资源与经济社会协调发展探析

构建了水资源与经济社会协调发展系统,对水资源与经济社会之间的内在关系进行了探讨,并应用改进的水资源与经济社会协调发展评价方法,在模糊综合评价方法中引入熵权,采用相对综合隶属度进行水资源与经济社会协调发展程度分析,最后以金华市为对象进行实例研究。结果表明,2012年金华市水资源与经济社会协调发展程度处于中等水平,全市各地区发展不平衡,需要针对不同地区情况制定非平衡开发策略。     

El Niño–Southern Oscillation Link to South Florida Hydrology and Water Management Applications

This study evaluates the relationships between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices and South Florida hydrology and proposes applications to water management decision making. ENSO relations to the Upper Kissimmee Basin rainfall, watershed for Lake Okeechobee, and cumulative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies at Niño 3.4 were evaluated. Additionally, relationship between ENSO and Lake Okeechobee inflows, Arbuckle Creek and Josephine Creek flows were analyzed. Hydrology of the northern watersheds of the South Florida water management system is linked to ENSO events. Dry season (November–May) rainfall and flows are higher than average during El Niño years and lower during La Niña years, at the 90% confidence level or higher. The relationship is strongest when the ENSO event is strong as shown with analysis of correlation. ENSO prediction has more certainty than hydrologic prediction for a region. Identifying ENSO and hydrologic relationships can aid water management decision making by providing a lead-time of months to mitigate drought or flood impacts. The ENSO tracking method, which was published in a previous study, is presented to track ENSO strength and event type to provide supplemental outlook on dry season rainfall for Lake Okeechobee operations. Lake Okeechobee, which is the main storage in the South Florida water management system, is regulated by a schedule with a limited band of stage fluctuation because of susceptibility of the Herbert Hoover Dike to wave erosion and seepage at high stages. An early decision making approach to storage management with respect to ENSO related hydrology, is presented based on tracking the strength of ENSO events.