Theoretical link between rainfall and flood magnitude

The rainfall–run‐off convolution integral is analytically solved for several models for the elementary hydrograph. These solutions can be combined with available rainfall frequency analyses to predict flood flows along streams for different recurrence intervals, using no free parameters for gauged streams and one estimable parameter for ungauged streams. Extreme discharge magnitudes at gauged sites can be typically estimated within a factor of two of actual records, using no historical data on extreme flows. The flow predictions reproduce several important characteristics of the flood phenomenon, such as the slope of the regression line between observed extreme flows and basin area on the conventional logQ versus logA plot. Importantly, for the models and data sets investigated, the storm duration of greatest significance to flooding was found to approximate the intrinsic transport timescale of the particular watershed, which increases with basin size. Thus, storms that deliver extraordinary amounts of rainfall over a particular time interval will most greatly activate basins whose time constants approximately equal that interval. This theoretical finding is supported by examination of the regional hydrological response to the massive storms of September 14, 2008, and April 28–30, 2017, which caused extraordinary record flooding of basins of about 5–100 km² and 500–4,000 km², respectively, but produced few records in basins that were larger or smaller than those ranges.     

Geostatistical interpolation of space–time rainfall on Tamshui River basin,Taiwan

Taiwan suffers from heavy storm rainfall during the typhoon season. This usually causes large river runoff, overland flow, erosion, landslides, debris flows, loss of power, etc. In order to evaluate storm impacts on the downstream basin, a real‐time hydrological modelling is used to estimate potential hazard areas. This can be used as a decision‐support system for the Emergency Response Center, National Fire Agency Ministry, to make ‘real‐time’ responses and minimize possible damage to human life and property. This study used 34 observed events from 14 telemetered rain‐gauges in the Tamshui River basin, Taiwan, to study the spatial–temporal characteristics of typhoon rainfall. In the study, regionalized theory and cross‐semi‐variograms were used to identify the spatial‐temporal structure of typhoon rainfall. The power form and parameters of the cross‐semi‐variogram were derived through analysis of the observed data. In the end, cross‐validation was used to evaluate the performance of the interpolated rainfall on the river basin. The results show the derived rainfall interpolator represents the observed events well, which indicates the rainfall interpolator can be used as a spatial‐temporal rainfall input for real‐time hydrological modelling. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reliability of rainfall kinetic power–intensity relationships

The rainfall erosivity plays a fundamental role in water soil erosion processes and it can be expressed by its kinetic power. At first in this paper, the raindrop‐size distributions measured, in the period June 2006–March 2014, by an optical disdrometer installed at the Department of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences of University of Palermo are aggregated into rainfall intensity classes, having different ranges, and the measured kinetic power values are determined. Measured kinetic power values are initially used for testing the applicability of the kinetic power‐rainfall intensity relationships proposed by Wischmeier and Smith ( 1978 ), used in Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), Brown and Foster ( 1987 ) (RUSLE), and McGregor et al. ( 1995 ) (RUSLE2). Then, the reliability of a theoretical relationship for estimating the kinetic power by rainfall intensity and median volume diameter is verified. Finally, using the literature available datasets, corresponding to measurements carried out by different techniques and in different geographical sites, the analysis demonstrated that the rainfall intensity is not sufficient to determine the rainfall kinetic power. On the contrary, the theoretically deduced relationship allows to reproduce adequately the kinetic power of all available datasets, demonstrating that the knowledge of both rainfall intensity and median volume diameter allows a reliable estimate of the rainfall erosivity.     

Holocene flood histories in south‐western USA

River basins in south‐western USA are some of the most extensively studied arid land fluvial systems in the world. Since the early 1960s their hydro‐climatic histories have been reconstructed from the analysis of alluvial cut‐and‐fill cycles, while from the late 1970s there have been investigations of slackwater deposits and palaeostage indicators for large floods in stable‐boundary bedrock reaches. However, no studies have regionally integrated Holocene fluvial histories from these two different types of fluvial environments. The current study combines the alluvial archive with flood records from bedrock reaches to generate a probability‐based 12,000 year record of flooding in south‐western USA. Using more than 700 ¹⁴C‐dated fluvial units, the analysis produces a high resolution (centennial) flood record. Seven episodes of increased flooding occurred at 11,250–10,400, 8800–8350, 8230–7600, 6700–5700, 5600–4820, 4550–3320 and 2000–0 cal. BP. Bedrock reaches are found to record more frequent floods during the middle to late Holocene, while in alluvial rivers more flood units are dated to the early and middle Holocene. These differences are primarily the result of selective preservation with alluvial reaches tending to erode during periods characterised by very large floods. Episodes of major Holocene flooding recorded in slackwater deposits within bedrock systems correspond with periods of increased precipitation in the region and lower temperatures. In contrast, within alluvial rivers above‐average flooding probabilities, as well as regionally extensive channel entrenchment episodes, match with reduced annual precipitation and lower temperatures. The results of this study clearly demonstrate the value of the Holocene fluvial archive for reconstructing regional, short‐term hydro‐climatic change in south‐western USA. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Distributed rainfall‐runoff modelling for flood frequency estimation and flood forecasting

Nowadays, in the scientific literature many rainfall‐runoff (RR) models are available ranging from simpler ones, with a limited number of parameters, to highly complex ones, with many parameters. Therefore, the selection of the best structure and parameterisation for a model is not straightforward as it is dependent on a number of factors: climatic conditions, catchment characteristics, temporal and spatial resolution, model objectives, etc. In this study, the structure of a continuous semi‐distributed RR model, named MISDc (‘Modello Idrologico Semi‐Distribuito in continuo’) developed for flood simulation in the Upper Tiber River (central Italy) is presented. Most notably, the methodology employed to detect the more relevant processes involved in the modelling of high floods, and hence, to build the model structure and its parameters, is developed. For this purpose, an intense activity of monitoring soil moisture and runoff in experimental catchments was carried out allowing to derive a parsimonious and reliable continuous RR model operating at an hourly (or smaller) time scale. Specifically, in order to determine the catchment hydrological response, the important role of the antecedent wetness conditions is emphasized. The application of MISDc both for design flood estimation and for flood forecasting is reported here demonstrating its reliability and also its computational efficiency, another important factor in hydrological practice. As far as the flood forecasting applications are concerned, only the accuracy of the model in reproducing discharge hydrographs by assuming rainfall correctly known throughout the event is investigated indepth. In particular, the MISDc has been implemented in the framework of Civil Protection activities for the Upper Tiber River basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological and erosional response to natural rainfall in a semi‐arid area of south‐east Spain

A better knowledge of soil erosion by water is essential for planning effective soil and water conservation practices in semi‐arid Mediterranean environments. The special climatic and hydrological characteristics of these areas, however, make accurate soil loss predictions difficult, particularly in the absence of minimal data. Two zero‐order experimental microcatchments (328–759 m²), representative of an extensive semi‐arid watershed with a high potential erosion risk in the south‐east of Spain, were selected and monitored for 3 years (1991–93) in order to provide information on the hydrological and erosional response. A pluviogram and hydrograph recorded data at 1‐min intervals during each storm, after which the soil loss was collected and the particle size of the sediment was analysed. Runoff coefficients of about 9% and soil losses of between 84·83 and 298·9 g m^?2 year^?1 were observed in the area. Rapid response times (geometric mean values lower than 2 h) and low runoff thresholds (mean values between 3·5 to 5·9 mm) were the norm in the experimental areas. A rain intensity of over 15 mm h^?1 was considered as ‘erosive rainfall’ in these areas because of the total soil loss and the transport capacity of the overland flow. Differences in pore‐size distribution explained the different hydrological responses observed between areas. The erosional response was more complex and basically seemed to be determined by soil aggregate stability and topographical properties. A greater proportion of finer particles in the eroded material than in the soil matrix indicated selective erosion and the transport of finer material. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rainfall–runoff trends in the south‐eastern USA: 1938–2005

An extensive dataset (230 precipitation gauges and 79 stream gauges) was used to analyse rainfall–runoff relationships in 10 subregions of a 482000 km² area in the south‐eastern USA (Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia). The average annual rainfall and runoff for this study area between 1938 and 2005 were 1201 and 439 mm, respectively. Average runoff/rainfall ratios during this period varied between 0·24 in the southernmost Coastal Plain subregion to 0·64 in the Blue Ridge Province. Watershed elevation and relief are the principal determinants governing the conversion of rainfall to runoff. Temporal rainfall variation throughout the south‐eastern USA ranges from ～40% above and below normal while the variation for runoff is higher, from ? 75% to + 100%. In any given year there can exist a ± 25–50% error in predicted runoff deviation using the annual rainfall–runoff regression. Fast Fourier Transform and autoregressive spectral analysis revealed dominant cyclicities for rainfall and runoff between 14 and 17 years. Secondary periodicities were typically between 6–7 and 10–12 years. The inferred cyclicity may be related to ENSO and/or Central North Pacific atmospheric phenomena. Mann–Kendall analyses indicate that there were no consistent statistically significant temporal trends with respect to south‐eastern US rainfall and runoff during the study period. The results of U‐tests similarly indicated that rainfall between 1996 and 2005 was not statistically higher or lower than during earlier in the study period. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of the Connectivity of Runoff Model (CRUM) to investigate the influence of storm characteristics on runoff generation and connectivity in semi‐arid areas

Much attention has been given to the surface controls on the generation and transmission of runoff in semi‐arid areas. However, the surface controls form only one part of the system; hence, it is important to consider the effect that the characteristics of the storm event have on the generation of runoff and the transmission of flow across the slope. The impact of storm characteristics has been investigated using the Connectivity of Runoff Model (CRUM). This is a distributed, dynamic hydrology model that considers the hydrological processes relevant to semi‐arid environments at the temporal scale of a single storm event. The key storm characteristics that have been investigated are the storm duration, rainfall intensity, rainfall variability and temporal structure. This has been achieved through the use of a series of defined storm hydrographs and stochastic rainfall. Results show that the temporal fragmentation of high‐intensity rainfall is important for determining the travel distances of overland flow and, hence, the amount of runoff that leaves the slope as discharge. If the high‐intensity rainfall is fragmented, then the runoff infiltrates a short distance downslope. Longer periods of high‐intensity rainfall allow the runoff to travel further and, hence, become discharge. Therefore, storms with similar amounts of high‐intensity rainfall can produce very different amounts of discharge depending on the storm characteristics. The response of the hydrological system to changes in the rainfall characteristics can be explained using a four‐stage model of the runoff generation process. These stages are: (1) all water infiltrating, (2) the surface depression store filling or emptying without runoff occurring, (3) the generation and transmission of runoff and (4) the transmission of runoff without new runoff being generated. The storm event will move the system between the four stages and the nature of the rainfall required to move between the stages is determined by the surface characteristics. This research shows the importance of the variable‐intensity rainfall when modelling semi‐arid runoff generation. The amount of discharge may be greater or less than the amount that would have been produced if constant rainfall intensity is used in the model. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Soil degradation in central Spain due to sheet water erosion by low‐intensity rainfall events

Runoff and sediment lost due to water erosion were recorded for 36 (1 m²) plots with varying types of vegetative cover located on sloping gypsiferous fields in the South of Madrid. 75% of the events had maximum 30‐minute intensity (I₃₀) less than 10 mm h^?1 in the period studied (1994–2005). As for the vegetative cover, maximum correlation between runoff and soil loss was found in the least protected plots (0–40% cover) during the most intense rainfall events; however, a significant positive correlation was also observed in plots with greater coverage (40–60%). If coverage exceeded 60%, rainfall erosivity declined. The average amount of sediment produced in high‐intensity events was significantly greater (approximately 7 g m^?2 per I₃₀ event >10 mm h^?1) than that produced in the rest of the moderate‐intensity events (approximately 3 g m^?2 per I₃₀ event <10 mm h^?1), but due to the high rate of occurrence of the latter throughout the year sediment loss during the period studied totaled 128 g m^?2. By comparison, only 40 g m^?2 was produced by the I₃₀ events greater than 10 mm h^?1. Even though the amount of soil lost is relatively insignificant from a quantitative standpoint, the organic matter content lost in the sediment (six times more than in the soil) is a permanent loss that threatens the development of the surface of the soil in this area when the vegetative cover is less than 40%. The soil here experiences a chronic loss of 0·02 mm annually as a consequence of frequent, moderate events, in addition to any loss produced by extraordinary events, which, though less frequent, are much more erosive. If moderate events are ignored, an important part of soil loss will be lost in the long run. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial and temporal variations in rainfall characteristics in mountainous and lowland areas in Taiwan

Although changes in rainfall characteristics have been noted across the world, few studies have reported those in mountainous areas. This study was undertaken to clarify spatial and temporal variations in rainfall characteristics such as annual rainfall amount (Pr), mean daily rainfall intensity (η), and ratio of rain days (λ) in mountainous and lowland areas in Taiwan. To this aim, we examined spatial and year‐to‐year variations and marginal long‐term trends in Pr, η, and λ, based on rainfall data from 120 stations during the period 1978–2008. The period mean rainfall () at the lowland stations had strong relationships with the period mean daily rainfall intensity () and the period mean ratio of rain days () during those 31 years. Meanwhile, was only strongly related to at mountainous stations, indicating that influences on spatial variations in were different between lowland and mountainous stations. Year‐to‐year variations in Pr at each station were primarily determined from the variation in η at most stations for both lowland and mountainous stations. Long‐term trend analysis showed that Pr and η increased significantly at 10% and 31% of the total 120 stations, respectively, and λ decreased significantly at 6% of the total. The increases in Pr were mostly accompanied by increases in η. Although stations with significant η increases were slightly biased toward the western lowland area, increases or decreases in Pr and λ were not common. These results contribute to understanding the impacts of possible climate changes on terrestrial hydrological cycles. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Soil moisture states,lateral flow,and streamflow generation in a semi‐arid,snowmelt‐driven catchment

Hydraulic connectivity on hillslopes and the existence of preferred soil moisture states in a catchment have important controls on runoff generation. In this study we investigate the relationships between soil moisture patterns, lateral hillslope flow, and streamflow generation in a semi‐arid, snowmelt‐driven catchment. We identify five soil moisture conditions that occur during a year and present a conceptual model based on field studies and computer simulations of how streamflow is generated with respect to the soil moisture conditions. The five soil moisture conditions are (1) a summer dry period, (2) a transitional fall wetting period, (3) a winter wet, low‐flux period, (4) a spring wet, high‐flux period, and (5) a transitional late‐spring drying period. Transitions between the periods are driven by changes in the water balance between rain, snow, snowmelt and evapotranspiration. Low rates of water input to the soil during the winter allow dry soil regions to persist at the soil–bedrock interface, which act as barriers to lateral flow. Once the dry‐soil flow barriers are wetted, whole‐slope hydraulic connectivity is established, lateral flow can occur, and upland soils are in direct connection with the near‐stream soil moisture. This whole‐slope connectivity can alter near‐stream hydraulics and modify the delivery of water, pressure, and solutes to the stream. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A numerical study of the rainstorm characteristics of the June 2005 flash flood with WRF/GSI data assimilation system over south‐east China

The evolution and structure of rainstorms associated with a flash‐flood event are simulated by the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF‐ARW) model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation (DA) system of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States. The event is based on a flash flood that occurred in the central Guangdong Province of south‐east China during 20–21 June 2005. Compared to an hourly mixed rain‐gauge and satellite‐retrieved precipitation data, the model shows the capability to reproduce the intensity and location of rainfall; however, the simulation depends on three conditions to a large extent: model resolution, physical processes schemes and initial condition. In this case, the Eta Ferrier microphysics scheme and the initialization with satellite radiance DA with a fine 4‐km grid spacing nested grid and coarse 12‐km grid spacing outer grid are the best options. The model‐predicted rain rates, however, are slightly overestimated, and the activities of the storms do not precisely correspond with those observed, although peak values are obtained. Abundant moisture brought by the south‐westerly winds with a mesoscale low‐level jet from the South China Sea or Bay of Bengal and trapped within the XingfengJiang region encompassed by northern Jiulian, southern Lianhua and eastern small mountains are apparently the primary elements responsible for the flood event. All simulated rainstorms were initiated over the southern slopes of the Jiulian Mountain and moved south or north‐eastward within the Xingfengjiang region. Meanwhile, the Skew‐T/Log‐P diagrams show that there is a fairly high convective available potential energy (CAPE) over the active areas of the rainstorms. The higher CAPE provides a beneficial thermodynamic condition for the development of rainstorms, but the higher convective inhibition near the northern, eastern and southern mountains prohibits the storms from moving out of the region and causes heavy rainfall that is trapped within the area. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Vegetation response to rainfall seasonality and interannual variability in tropical dry forests

Projected changes in rainfall seasonality and interannual variability are expected to have severe impacts on arid and semi‐arid tropical vegetation, which is characterized by a fine‐tuned adaptation to extreme rainfall seasonality. To study the response of these ecosystems and the related changes in hydrological processes to changes in the amount and seasonality of rainfall, we focused on the caatinga biome, the typical seasonally dry forest in semi‐arid Northeast Brazil. We selected four sites across a gradient of rainfall amount and seasonality and analysed daily rainfall and biweekly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data for hydrological years 2000 to 2014. Rainfall seasonal and interannual statistics were characterized by recently proposed metrics describing duration, timing and intensity of the wet season and compared to similar metrics of NDVI time series. The results show that the caatinga tends to have a more stable response with longer and less variable growing seasons (3.1 ± 0.1 months) compared to the duration wet seasons (2.0 ± 0.5 months). The ecosystem ability to buffer the interannual variability of rainfall is also evidenced by the stability in the timing of the growing season compared to the wet season, which results in variable delays (ranging from 0 to 2 months) between the peak of the rainfall season and the production of leaves by the ecosystem. The analyses show that the shape and size of the related hysteresis loops in the rainfall–NDVI relations are linked to the buffering effects of soil moisture and plant growth dynamics. Finally, model projections of vegetation response to different rainfall scenarios reveal the existence of a maximum in ecosystem productivity at intermediate levels of rainfall seasonality, suggesting a possible trade‐off in the effects of intensity (i.e. amount) and duration of the wet season on vegetation growth and related soil moisture dynamics and transpiration rates. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of GCM simulations of annual and seasonal rainfall and daily rainfall distribution across south‐east Australia

Global warming can potentially lead to changes in future rainfall and runoff and can significantly impact the regional hydrology and future availability of water resources. All the large‐scale climate impact studies use the future climate projections from global climate models (GCMs) to estimate the impact on future water availability. This paper presents results from a detailed assessment to investigate the capability of 15 GCMs to reproduce the observed historical annual and seasonal mean rainfalls, the observed annual rainfall series and the observed daily rainfall distribution across south‐east Australia. The assessment shows that the GCMs can generally reproduce the spatial patterns of mean seasonal and annual rainfalls. However, there can be considerable differences between the mean rainfalls simulated by the GCMs and the observed rainfall. The results clearly show that none of the GCMs can simulate the actual annual rainfall time series or the trend in the annual rainfall. The GCMs can also generally reproduce the observed daily (ranked) rainfall distribution at the GCM scale. The GCMs are ranked against their abilities to reproduce the observed historical mean annual rainfall and daily rainfall distribution, and, based on the combined score, the better GCMs include MPI‐ECHAM5, MIUB, CCCMA_T47, INMCM, CSIRO‐MK3·0, CNRM, CCCMA_T63 and GFDL 2·0 and those with poorer performances are MRI, IPSL, GISS‐AOM, MIROC‐M, NCAR‐PCM1, IAP and NCAR‐CCSM. However, the reduction in the combined score as we move from the best‐ to the worst‐performing GCMs is gradual, and there is no evident cut‐off point or threshold to remove GCMs from climate impact studies. There is some agreement between the results here and many similar studies comparing the performance of GCMs in Australia, but the results are not always consistent and do significantly disagree with several of the studies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of lithology and soil properties on abandoned dryland terraces during the early stages of soil erosion by water in south‐east Spain

Soil erosion by water in abandoned dry terraces is one of the most important environmental problems in semiarid areas, enhancing biological degradation and reducing possible resources that can be obtained. However, little is known about the effects of the types of lithology and soil properties on the early stages of soil erosion. Therefore, the main aim of this research was to assess the effect of different lithologies (marls, limestones, and metamorphic—phyllites, schists, and greywackes—materials) and soil properties on the early stages of soil erosion by water in abandoned dry terraces, compared with similar terraces still in agricultural use. Soil analyses (texture, aggregate stability, and bulk density) and 22 rainfall simulations were carried out under dry conditions. During the experiments, local inclination, vegetation and stone cover, total organic matter, and antecedent soil moisture were also quantified. The results showed that the highest soil loss (41.41 g/m² in cultivated plots and 17.05 g/m² in the abandoned plots) and runoff (3.79 L/m² in the abandoned plot) occurred on marl substrata. Marls also showed the shallowest infiltration front (9 cm) and lowest infiltration rate (4.3 cm/min). Limestones and, especially, metamorphic areas, showed a lower degree of soil erosion, higher infiltration rates, and deeper infiltration fronts.     

Spatial and temporal analysis of hillslope–channel coupling and implications for the longitudinal profile in a dryland basin

The long‐term evolution of channel longitudinal profiles within drainage basins is partly determined by the relative balance of hillslope sediment supply to channels and the evacuation of channel sediment. However, the lack of theoretical understanding of the physical processes of hillslope–channel coupling makes it challenging to determine whether hillslope sediment supply or channel sediment evacuation dominates over different timescales and how this balance affects bed elevation locally along the longitudinal profile. In this paper, we develop a framework for inferring the relative dominance of hillslope sediment supply to the channel versus channel sediment evacuation, over a range of temporal and spatial scales. The framework combines distinct local flow distributions on hillslopes and in the channel with surface grain‐size distributions. We use these to compute local hydraulic stresses at various hillslope‐channel coupling locations within the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW) in southeast Arizona, USA. These stresses are then assessed as a local net balance of geomorphic work between hillslopes and channel for a range of flow conditions generalizing decadal historical records. Our analysis reveals that, although the magnitude of hydraulic stress in the channel is consistently higher than that on hillslopes, the product of stress magnitude and frequency results in a close balance between hillslope supply and channel evacuation for the most frequent flows. Only at less frequent, high‐magnitude flows do channel hydraulic stresses exceed those on hillslopes, and channel evacuation dominates the net balance. This result suggests that WGEW exists mostly (~50% of the time) in an equilibrium condition of sediment balance between hillslopes and channels, which helps to explain the observed straight longitudinal profile. We illustrate how this balance can be upset by climate changes that differentially affect relative flow regimes on slopes and in channels. Such changes can push the long profile into a convex or concave condition. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Flood hazards at ford stream crossings on ephemeral channels (south‐east coast of Spain)

Most road‐stream crossings over ephemeral channels are vulnerable to extreme hydrologic events. Ford stream crossings (FSCs) are usually dangerous for the road traffic during periods of high flow, in particular under flash flood conditions. The present paper analyzes the flood hazards on the Mediterranean coast in the Region of Murcia (south‐east Spain), affecting this type of road‐stream crossing over dry channels, according to hydraulic variables and bedload transport rates estimated for discharges at bankfull and flood‐prone stages. Under such conditions, the safety of people and vehicles was obtained using numerical models, developed by previous researchers; in particular, water levels and flow velocities across ford reaches were compared with different trend curves between water depths and corresponding critical velocities for children and adults, and for various prototype vehicles. Specifically, two approaches to assess this type of hazards were proposed: a specific Hydraulic Hazard Index and an algorithm for estimating the flood hazard from criteria of bed stability and bedload transport capacity (Flood Hazard at Fords, FHF). In addition, different exposure levels were established, using a Flood Vulnerability Index, based on the FHF, the road category, and the annual average daily traffic. The FHF model gave the best results with regard to the magnitude of the damage observed in recent flash floods for flow stages similar to those simulated. According to the danger thresholds established for this index, half‐bankfull flows represent here a high risk: 27.3% of FSCs for mini‐cars and 18.2% for large cars. At bankfull, the FHF exhibits very high values for mini‐cars (77.3% of FSCs) and for large passenger vehicles (50% of FSCs), while at the floodprone stage, extreme FHF values are reached for all kinds of vehicles at most of the ford crossings.     

Enforced self‐organizing map neural networks for river flood forecasting

Self‐organizing maps (SOMs) have been successfully accepted widely in science and engineering problems; not only are their results unbiased, but they can also be visualized. In this study, we propose an enforced SOM (ESOM) coupled with a linear regression output layer for flood forecasting. The ESOM re‐executes a few extra training patterns, e.g. the peak flow, as recycling input data increases the mapping space of peak flow in the topological structure of SOM, and the weighted sum of the extended output layer of the network improves the accuracy of forecasting peak flow. We have investigated an ESOM neural network by using the flood data of the Da‐Chia River, Taiwan, and evaluated its performance based on the results obtained from a commonly used back‐propagation neural network. The results demonstrate that the ESOM neural network has great efficiency for clustering, especially for the peak flow, and super capability of modelling the flood forecast. The topology maps created from the ESOM are interesting and informative. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating best evaporation estimate model for water surface evaporation in semi‐arid region,India

Evaluating performances of four commonly used evaporation estimate methods, namely; Bowen ratio energy balance (BREB), mass transfer (MT), Priestley–Taylor (PT) and pan evaporation (PE), based on 4 years experimental data, the most effective and the reliable evaporation estimates model for the semi‐arid region of India has been derived. The various goodness‐of‐fit measures, such as; coefficient of determination (R²), index of agreement (D), root mean square error (RMSE), and relative bias (RB) have been chosen for the performance evaluation. Of these models, the PT model has been found most promising when the Bowen ratio, β is known a priori, and based on its limited data requirement. The responses of the BREB, the PT, and the PE models were found comparable to each other, while the response of the MT model differed to match with the responses of the other three models. The coefficients, β of the BREB, µ of the MT, α of the PT and K_P of the PE model were estimated as 0·07, 2·35, 1·31 and 0·65, respectively. The PT model can successfully be extended for free water surface evaporation estimates in semi‐arid India. A linear regression model depicting relationship between daily air and water temperature has been developed using the observed water temperatures and the corresponding air temperatures. The model helped to generate unrecorded water temperatures for the corresponding ambient air temperatures. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate‐invariant area–slope relations in channel heads initiated by surface runoff

We use a dataset of 38 field‐mapped channel heads from a semi‐arid environment in western Colorado to examine relationships between contributing drainage area (A) and local hillslope gradient (θ) in relation to dominant process of initiation (surface runoff versus subsurface flow). Channel heads resulting primarily from subsurface flow have significantly greater values of A, longer basin lengths, and shallower local gradients than channel heads resulting primarily from surface runoff. We also compare the data from western Colorado to six analogous datasets from more humid regions in other portions of the United States and in southeast Australia. Comparison of the confidence intervals for the exponent values of A–θ regression lines reveals that the confidence intervals for the exponent of western Colorado channel heads with both surface and subsurface flow overlap with the confidence intervals for the exponent of all other datasets. This suggests that A–θ relationships do not differ significantly between diverse geographic locations. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.