A fuzzy inference model for short-term load forecasting

This paper is concerned with the short-term load forecasting (STLF) in power system operations. It provides load prediction for generation scheduling and unit commitment decisions, and therefore precise load forecasting plays an important role in reducing the generation cost and the spinning reserve capacity. Short-term electricity demand forecasting (i.e., the prediction of hourly loads (demand)) is one of the most important tools by which an electric utility/company plans, dispatches the loading of generating units in order to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, which is derived from the accuracy of the forecasting algorithm used, will determine the economics of the operation of the power system. The inaccuracy or large error in the forecast simply means that load matching is not optimized and consequently the generation and transmission systems are not being operated in an efficient manner. In the present study, a proposed methodology has been introduced to decrease the forecasted error and the processing time by using fuzzy logic controller on an hourly base. Therefore, it predicts the effect of different conditional parameters (i.e., weather, time, historical data, and random disturbances) on load forecasting in terms of fuzzy sets during the generation process. These parameters are chosen with respect to their priority and importance. The forecasted values obtained by fuzzy method were compared with the conventionally forecasted ones. The results showed that the STLF of the fuzzy implementation have more accuracy and better outcomes.     

双碳、双区背景下深圳电力需求预测

  目的  为了适应“双碳”和“双区”新背景下深圳未来用电特征的研究，反映新形势下诸多新因素的影响，需要在传统电力需求预测方法上进行修正，建立新的预测体系。  方法  在电量预测上，一方面以碳强度控制为导向，结合对全社会电气化水平的要求，提出“自上而下”的预测方法；另一方面以改进的细分部门法和新型负荷修正法，进行“自下而上”预测，相互佐证；在负荷预测上，充分考虑需求侧管理、相关削峰手段的影响。  结果  通过量化分析“双碳”目标下能源供应及消费结构调整，“双区”驱动下新基建、产业结构调整和转移等重要因素的影响，对深圳“十四五”及中远期全社会用电量进行预测，并对深圳未来最高负荷和负荷特性发展趋势进行预判。  结论  所提方法为其他地区进行新形势下电力需求预测提供了新思路，预测结果也为深圳后续电源和电网规划及调度运行等提供了重要参考。     

Medium-term electric load forecasting using singular value decomposition

Medium-term load forecasting is an important stage in electric power system planning and operation. It is used in maintenance scheduling, and to plan for outages and major works in the power system. A new technique is proposed which uses hourly loads of successive years to predict hourly loads and peak load for the next selected time span. The proposed method implements a new combination of some existing and well established techniques. This is done by first filtering out the load trend, then applying the SVD (singular value decomposition) technique to de-noise the resulting signal. Hourly load is thus divided to three main components: a) a load trend-following component, b) a random component, and c) a de-noised component. Results of applying the technique to the Jordanian power system showed that good forecasting accuracies are attained. In addition, the proposed method outperforms the traditional exponential curve fitting method. The peak load error was found to be less than 5% using the proposed methodology. It was also found that a lag period of 4 years suits the load forecasting purposes of the Jordanian power system. The proposed method is generic and can be implemented to the hourly loads of any power system.     

Turkey’s short-term gross annual electricity demand forecast by fuzzy logic approach

This paper aims to forecast Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand by applying fuzzy logic methodology while general information on economical, political and electricity market conditions of the country is also given. Unlike most of the other forecast models about Turkey's electricity demand, which usually uses more than one parameter, gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity was the only parameter used in the model. Proposed model made good predictions and captured the system dynamic behavior covering the years of 1970–2014. The model yielded average absolute relative errors of 3.9%. Furthermore, the model estimates a 4.5% decrease in electricity demand of Turkey in 2009 and the electricity demand growth rates are projected to be about 4% between 2010 and 2014. It is concluded that forecasting the Turkey's short-term gross electricity demand with the country's economic performance will provide more reliable projections. Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of a country could be made by any designer with the help of the fuzzy logic procedure described in this paper. The advantage of this model lies on the ability to mimic the human thinking and reasoning.     

基于RBF神经网络与模糊控制的短期负荷预测

针对电力系统短期负荷预测,综合考虑温度、日期类型和天气等因素对短期电力负荷的影响,建立了径向基函数（Radial?Basis?Function,RBF）神经网络和模糊控制相结合的短期负荷预测模型。该模型利用RBF神经网络的非线性逼近能力对预测日负荷进行了预测,并采用在线自调整因子的模糊控制对预测误差进行在线智能修正。实际算例表明RBF神经网络与模糊控制相结合提高了预测精度。     

Generation Cost Assessment of an Isolated Power System With a Fuzzy Wind Power Generation Model

This paper presents a fuzzy set based modeling of wind power generation. The wind power generation has been solved by the proposed fuzzy generation for an island in Taiwan. The cost effectiveness of wind power generation is then evaluated by calculating the avoided generation cost of diesel generators. The load survey study has been performed to find the typical daily load patterns of various customer classes. With the typical load patterns and total energy consumption by each customer class, the load composition and daily power profile of the isolated power system are therefore derived. The wind power generation of eight wind turbines and the corresponding avoided generation cost is estimated by the fuzzy generation model according to the hourly wind speed. The power generation and the corresponding cost of diesel generators required to meet the system power demand with wind power generation have therefore been obtained. It is found that the wind power generation can economically and effectively substitute the generation cost of the diesel power plant and provide the partial power supply capability for the net peak load demand.     

Fuzzy logic-based MPPT controllers for three-phase grid-connected inverters

In photovoltaic (PV) applications, a maximum power point tracking (MPPT) module is necessary to extract the whole energy that the PV module can generate depending on the instantaneous conditions of the PV system. A PV module is obtained by connecting a number of solar cells in series and parallel, which causes voltage and current to increase at module terminations. The present work is based on a three-phase grid-connected inverter designed for a 100 kW PV power plant that uses an MPPT scheme based on fuzzy logic controllers. The whole system presented is simulated in MATLAB. The fuzzy logic-based MPPT controllers show accurate and fast responses and are integrated into the inverter, so that the there is no requirement for a dc–dc converter. The inverter allows full control of reactive power.     

Short term and medium term power distribution load forecasting by neural networks

Load forecasting is an important subject for power distribution systems and has been studied from different points of view. In general, load forecasts should be performed over a broad spectrum of time intervals, which could be classified into short term, medium term and long term forecasts. Several research groups have proposed various techniques for either short term load forecasting or medium term load forecasting or long term load forecasting. This paper presents a neural network (NN) model for short term peak load forecasting, short term total load forecasting and medium term monthly load forecasting in power distribution systems. The NN is used to learn the relationships among past, current and future temperatures and loads. The neural network was trained to recognize the peak load of the day, total load of the day and monthly electricity consumption. The suitability of the proposed approach is illustrated through an application to real load shapes from the Turkish Electricity Distribution Corporation (TEDAS) in Nigde. The data represents the daily and monthly electricity consumption in Nigde, Turkey.     

基于逆推理论改进模糊均生函数的短期负荷预测

为提高短期电力负荷预测精度,针对电力负荷序列的周期性、随机波动性等特点,提出一种基于逆推理论改进模糊均生函数的短期负荷预测模型。该模型先将模糊均生函数算法引入负荷预测领域,同时应用逆推理论改进模糊均生函数的构造过程,然后将其与最优子集回归算法相结合,建立短期负荷预测模型,最后使用该模型进行预测。以山东电网某市的负荷数据为例,对该模型进行了验证,并与实际负荷数据及传统均生函数模型的预测结果进行对比。结果表明,所提模型能有效提高短期负荷预测的精度,具有很好的实用性。     

A fuzzy logic excitation system for stability enhancement of powersystems with multi-mode oscillations

A fuzzy logic excitation system has been proposed to enhance the overall stability of power systems. The proposed excitation system has two control loops. One is the voltage control loop which achieves the automatic voltage regulator (AVR) function, and the other is the damping control loop which gives the PSS function. Simple fuzzy logic control rules are applied to both loops. The input signal to the voltage control loop is the terminal voltage, and the input signal to the damping control loop is the real power output. Simulation studies show the advantages of the fuzzy logic excitation system     

Variable structure battery-based fuel cell hybrid power system and its incremental fuzzy logic energy management strategy

A hybrid power system consists of a fuel cell and an energy storage device like a battery and/or a supercapacitor possessing high energy and power density that beneficially drives electric vehicle motor. The structures of the fuel cell-based power system are complicated and costly, and in energy management strategies (EMSs), the fuel cell's characteristics are usually neglected. In this study, a variable structure battery (VSB) scheme is proposed to enhance the hybrid power system, and an incremental fuzzy logic method is developed by considering the efficiency and power change rate of fuel cell to balance the power system load. The principle of VSB is firstly introduced and validated by discharge and charge experiments. Subsequently, parameters matching of the fuel cell hybrid power system according to the proposed VSB are designed and modeled. To protect the fuel cell as well as ensure the efficiency, a fuzzy logic EMS is formulated via setting the fuel cell operating in a high efficiency and generating an incremental power output within the affordable power slope. The comparison between a traditional deterministic rules-based EMS and the designed fuzzy logic was implemented by numerical simulation in three different operation conditions: NEDC, UDDS, and user-defined driving cycle. The results indicated that the incremental fuzzy logic EMS smoothed the fuel cell power and kept the high efficiency. The proposed VSB and incremental fuzzy logic EMS may have a potential application in fuel cell vehicles.     

模糊划分线性回归模型在电力负荷预测中的应用

针对电力负荷中长期预测中存在大量的不确定性因素及待预测的负荷变量与关联因素无法很好地满足整个样本序列上预测变量与解释变量间的线性相关性问题,引入了模糊划分理论,构建了基于模糊有序划分的线性回归预测模型。算例应用结果表明,该模型能在较少样本数据基础上实现对电力负荷较为准确的预测,且预测精度较高。     

An adaptive fuzzy combination model based on self-organizing map and support vector regression for electric load forecasting

Electric load forecasting is an important task in the daily operations of a power utility associated with energy transfer scheduling, unit commitment and load dispatch. Inspired by the various non-linearity of electric load data and the strong learning capacity of support vector regression (SVR) for small sample and balanced data, this paper presents an adaptive fuzzy combination model based on the self-organizing map (SOM), the SVR and the fuzzy inference method. The adaptive fuzzy combination model can effectively count for electric load forecasting with good accuracy and interpretability at the same time. The key idea behind the combination is to build a human-understandable knowledge base by constructing a fuzzy membership function for each homogeneous sub-population. The comparison of different mathematical models and the effectiveness of the presented model are shown by the real data of New South Wales electricity market. The obtained results confirm the validity of the developed model.     

基于熵值法的组合模型用电量预测方法研究

电力系统的中长期负荷预测是配电网规划的基础,对实现电网的安全经济运行起着重要作用。以年度用电量预测作为研究的对象,年度用电量预测采用4种主要方法,即分别按照年度、季度、月度和行业用电量预测得到对应年用电量预测值,在此基础上再按其发展序列预测结合起来,建立了一种线性组合预测模型。并采用熵值法对组合模型的权系数进行求解,实证分析表明该模型使预测精度得到了明显提高,具有良好的预测效果。     

A boiler-turbine system control using a fuzzy auto-regressive moving average (FARMA) model

This paper presents an application of an online self-organizing fuzzy logic controller to a boiler-turbine system of a fossil power plant. The control rules and the membership functions of the proposed fuzzy logic controller are generated automatically without using a plant model. A boiler-turbine system is described as a multi-input multioutput (MIMO) nonlinear system in this paper. Then, three single-loop fuzzy logic controllers are designed independently. Simulation shows robust results for various kinds of electric load demand changes and parameter variations of boiler-turbine system.     

Resiliency oriented control of a smart microgrid with photovoltaic modules

The resiliency of a standalone microgrid is of considerable issue because the available regulation measures and capabilities are limited. Given this background, this paper presented a new mathematical model for a detailed photovoltaic (PV) module and the application of new control techniques for efficient energy extraction. The PV module employs a single-stage conversion method to integrate it with the utility grid. For extraction the maximum power from PV and integrate it to power grid, a three-phase voltage source converter is used. For obtaining the maximum power at a particular irradiance a maximum power point tracking (MPPT) scheme is used. The fuzzy logic control and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system are proposed for direct current (DC) link voltage control. The proposed model and control scheme are validated through a comparison with the standard power-voltage and current–voltage charts for a PV module. Simulation results demonstrate that the system stability can be maintained with the power grid and in the island mode, in contrast with the MPPT.     

Enhancing the operation of fuel cell-photovoltaic-battery-supercapacitor renewable system through a hybrid energy management strategy

It is necessary to have an energy management system based on one or more control strategies to sense, monitor, and control the behavior of the hybrid energy sources. In renewable hybrid power systems containing fuel cells and batteries, the hydrogen consumption reduction and battery state of charge (SOC) utilizing are the main objectives. These parameters are essential to get the maximum befits of cost reduction as well as battery and hydrogen storage lifetime increasing. In this paper, a novel hybrid energy management system (HEMS) was designed to achieve these objectives. A renewable hybrid power system combines: PV, PEMFC, SC, and Battery was designed to supply a predetermined load with its needed power. This (REHPS) depends on the PV power as a master source during the daylight. It uses the FC to support as a secondary source in the night or shading time. The battery is helping the FC when the load power is high. The supercapacitor (SC) is working at the load transient or load fast change. The proposed energy management system uses fuzzy logic and frequency decoupling and state machine control strategies working together as a hybrid strategy where the switching over between both strategies done automatically based on predetermined values to obtain the minimum value of hydrogen consumption and the maximum value of SOC at the same time. The proposed HEMS achieves 19.6% Hydrogen consumption saving and 5.4% increase in SOC value compared to the results of the same two strategies when working as a stand-alone. The load is designed to show a surplus power when the PV power is at its maximum value. This surplus power is used to charge the battery. To validate the system, the results were compared with the results of each strategy if working separately. The comparison confirms the achievement of the hybrid energy management system goal.     

An efficient approach for electric load forecasting using distributed ART (adaptive resonance theory) & HS-ARTMAP (Hyper-spherical ARTMAP network) neural network

This paper presents a neural network based on adaptive resonance theory, named distributed ART (adaptive resonance theory) & HS-ARTMAP (Hyper-spherical ARTMAP network), applied to the electric load forecasting problem. The distributed ART combines the stable fast learning capabilities of winner-take-all ART systems with the noise tolerance and code compression capabilities of multi-layer perceptions. The HS-ARTMAP, a hybrid of an RBF (Radial Basis Function)-network-like module which uses hyper-sphere basis function substitute the Gaussian basis function and an ART-like module, performs incremental learning capabilities in function approximation problem. The HS-ARTMAP only receives the compressed distributed coding processed by distributed ART to deal with the proliferation problem which ARTMAP (adaptive resonance theory map) architecture often encounters and still performs well in electric load forecasting. To demonstrate the performance of the methodology, data from New South Wales and Victoria in Australia are illustrated. Results show that the developed method is much better than the traditional BP and single HS-ARTMAP neural network.     

Optimization of fuzzy-based MPPT controller via metaheuristic techniques for stand-alone PV systems

Due to the alteration of power-voltage characteristics of solar module output under multiple environmental conditions such as solar irradiation and ambient temperature, these systems hardly function at maximum power point (MPP). However, maximum power point tracking (MPPT) plays a significant role in their efficiency. On the other hand, solar module characteristics are extremely nonlinear and their slope on either side of MPP is asymmetric. Thus using a nonlinear control method which has the potential of adapting the operating point of the system to MPP seems useful. This has motivated authors to present MPPT method which maximizes PV's output power by tracking MPP continuously. In the present study, a fuzzy logic controller (FLC) is presented for MPPT in photovoltaic systems. Four optimization algorithms are presented in this paper for optimizing fuzzy membership functions (MFs) and generating proper duty cycle for MPPT. The presented algorithms include: Teaching Learning Based Optimization (TLBO), Firefly Algorithm (FFA), Biogeography based optimization (BBO), and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), which are all described and simulated. Finally, to validate performance of the proposed optimized FLC, it is compared with other algorithms such as symmetrical fuzzy logic controller (SFLC) and conventional Perturbation and Observation (P&O). According to the simulation results, P&O algorithm shows significant oscillations, energy loss, and in some cases, it cannot obtain MPP. Simulation results also indicate that TLBO and FFA based asymmetric fuzzy MFs not only increase MPPT convergence speed but also enhance tracking accuracy in comparison with symmetric fuzzy MFs and asymmetric fuzzy MFs based on BBO and PSO.     

Intelligent photovoltaic farms for robust frequency stabilization in multi-area interconnected power system based on PSO-based optimal Sugeno fuzzy logic control

Currently, the grid-connected large PV farms are extensively installed in power systems. Nevertheless, in addition to the load change, the intermittent power output of PV farms may lead to the serious problem of the system frequency fluctuation. To handle this problem, this paper proposes a new design of Sugeno fuzzy logic controller based on particle swarm optimization (PSO-SFLC) of intelligent PV farms for the frequency stabilization in a multi-area interconnected power system. To handle various scenarios, the frequency deviations and solar insolations are used as input signals of the PSO-SFLC. The output signal of the PSO-SFLC is a command signal for adjusting PV output power. The output power of PV is controlled by the PSO-SFLC to meet the load demand so that the system frequency fluctuation can be suppressed. Without the difficulty of trial and error, the optimal input and output membership functions, and control rules of PSO-SFLC are automatically achieved by PSO. Simulation study in a three-area loop interconnected power system with large PV farms elucidates that the frequency stabilizing performance and robustness of the PV equipped with the PSO-SFLC is much superior to that of the PV with the SFLC and the PV with the maximum power point tracking control in scenarios with various solar insolations and loading conditions.