Food consumption data in microbiological risk assessment

The 1st International Conference on Microbiological Risk Assessment: Foodborne Hazards was held in July 2002. One of the goals of that conference was to evaluate the current status and future needs and directions of the science of microbial risk assessment. This article is based in part on a talk presented at that meeting. Here, we review the types of food consumption data available for use in microbial risk assessments and address their strengths and limitations. Consumption data available range from total population summary data derived from food production statistics to detailed information, derived from national food consumption surveys, about the types and amounts of food consumed at the individual level. Although population summary data are available for most countries, detailed data are available for a limited number of countries and may only be available in summary format. Despite the relatively large amount of detailed information collected by these national surveys, information crucial to microbial risk assessments, such as the specific types of foods, the eating patterns of susceptible populations, or an individual's propensity for consuming high-risk foods (e.g., eating undercooked hamburgers, raw shellfish, or temperature-abused foods), are not collected during these surveys.     

Comparison of microbiological risk assessment studies published

The FAO/WHO risk analysis framework and principles are in the process of being implemented in different national and international settings. The importance of a further development of international co-operation based upon agreed principles in this area is stressed in the Codex Alimentarius system, as well as under the WTO/SPS agreements. Key input in this context will come from the presentation of formalised microbiological risk assessments. The number of peer-review published microbiological risk assessments is low and the format is still variable. This paper presents a comparison of selected risk assessments in the microbiological area, and suggests a number of lessons to be learned from these.     

Quantitative risk assessment of Cryptosporidium species infection in dairy calves

Cryptosporidium parvum is a zoonotic protozoan that infects many different mammals including cattle and humans. Cryptosporidiosis has become a concern for dairy producers because of the direct losses due to calves not performing well and the potential for environmental contamination with C. parvum. Identifying modifiable control points in the dynamics of infection in dairy herds will help identify management strategies that mitigate its risk. The quantitative risk assessment approach provides estimates of the risk associated with these factors so that cost-effective strategies can be implemented. Using published data from epidemiologic studies and a stochastic approach, we modeled the risk that C. parvum presents to dairy calves in 2 geographic areas: 1) the New York City Watershed (NYCW) in southeastern New York, and 2) the entire United States. The approach focused on 2 possible areas of exposure—the rearing environment and the maternity environment. In addition, we evaluated the contribution of many risk factors (e.g., age, housing, flies) to the end-state (i.e., total) risk to identify areas of intervention to decrease the risk to dairy calves. Expected risks from C. parvum in US dairy herds in rearing and maternity environments were 41.7 and 33.9%, respectively. In the NYCW, the expected risks from C. parvum in the rearing and maternity environments were 0.36 and 0.33%, respectively. In the US scenarios, the immediate environment contributed most of the risk to calves, whereas in the NYCW scenario, it was new calf infection. Therefore, within the NYCW, risk management activities may be focused on preventing new calf infections, whereas in the general US population, cleaning of calf housing would be a good choice for resource allocation. Despite the many assumptions inherent with modeling techniques, its usefulness to quantify the likelihood of risk and identify risk management areas is illustrated.     

Application of elements of microbiological risk assessment in the food industry via a tiered approach

Food safety control is a matter for concern for all parts of the food supply chain, including governments that develop food safety policy, food industries that must control potential hazards, and consumers who need to keep to the intended use of the food. In the future, food safety policy may be set using the framework of risk analysis, part of which is the development of (inter)national microbiological risk assessment (MRA) studies. MRA studies increase our understanding of the impact of risk management interventions and of the relationships among subsequent parts of food supply chains with regard to the safety of the food when it reaches the consumer. Application of aspects of MRA in the development of new food concepts has potential benefits for the food industry. A tiered approach to applying MRA can best realize these benefits. The tiered MRA approach involves calculation of microbial fate for a product and process design on the basis of experimental data (e.g., monitoring data on prevalence) and predictive microbiological models. Calculations on new product formulations and novel processing technologies provide improved understanding of microbial fate beyond currently known boundaries, which enables identification of new opportunities in process design. The outcome of the tiered approach focuses on developing benchmarks of potential consumer exposure to hazards associated with new products by comparison with exposure associated with products that are already on the market and have a safe history of use. The tiered prototype is a tool to be used by experienced microbiologists as a basis for advice to product developers and can help to make safety assurance for new food concepts transparent to food inspection services.     

Hierarchical Bayesian analysis of censored microbiological contamination data for use in risk assessment and mitigation

Microbiological contamination data often is censored because of the presence of non-detects or because measurement outcomes are known only to be smaller than, greater than, or between certain boundary values imposed by the laboratory procedures. Therefore, it is not straightforward to fit distributions that summarize contamination data for use in quantitative microbiological risk assessment, especially when variability and uncertainty are to be characterized separately. In this paper, distributions are fit using Bayesian analysis, and results are compared to results obtained with a methodology based on maximum likelihood estimation and the non-parametric bootstrap method. The Bayesian model is also extended hierarchically to estimate the effects of the individual elements of a covariate such as, for example, on a national level, the food processing company where the analyzed food samples were processed, or, on an international level, the geographical origin of contamination data. Including this extra information allows a risk assessor to differentiate between several scenario’s and increase the specificity of the estimate of risk of illness, or compare different scenario’s to each other. Furthermore, inference is made on the predictive importance of several different covariates while taking into account uncertainty, allowing to indicate which covariates are influential factors determining contamination.     

Quantitative risk assessment,food chemicals,and a healthy diet

Abstract

Choices about what to eat to improve health and what substances should be prohibited in food to prevent harm both involve judgments that must be made in the absence of definitive information. Scientists and government regulators have refined the limited data on chronic toxicity, especially cancer, from low‐level exposure to chemicals in food by using quantitative risk assessment techniques. Quantitative risk assessment, which produces an exact numerical risk, facilitates decision making about food additives, pesticide residues, and other chemicals present in food. This article examines the feasibility and utility of a similar quantitative approach to the risks and benefits from dietary factors such as fats and fiber. The article concludes that although a more quantitative approach in this area is possible, it would be less useful than it is in regulating potentially carcinogenic food chemicals. Quantitative risk assessment for carcinogenicity is necessitated, in part, by serious gaps in our knowledge about whether and how chemicals induce cancer in people. Although this technique yields a precise measurement of risk, it has no verifiable relationship to what actually happens in the body. Somewhat paradoxically, a greater knowledge of how the diet influences health makes it less necessary to strive for exactness in describing it.     

Quantitative risk assessment of listeriosis due to consumption of raw milk

The objectives of this study were to estimate the risk of illness for raw milk consumers due to Listeria monocytogenes in raw milk sold by permitted dealers, and the risk for people on farms who consume raw milk. Three scenarios were evaluated for raw milk sold by dealers: raw milk purchased directly from bulk tanks, from on-farm stores, and from retail. To assess the effect of mandatory testing of raw milk by regulatory agencies, the number of listeriosis cases per year was compared where no raw milk testing was done, only a screening test to issue a permit was conducted, and routine testing was conducted and milk was recalled if it was L. monocytogenes positive. The median number of listeriosis cases associated with consumption of raw milk from bulk tanks, farm stores, and retail for an intermediate-age population was 6.6 × 10(-7), 3.8 × 10(-5), and 5.1 × 10(-5) cases per year, respective ly. In populations with high susceptibility, the estimated median number of cases per year was 2.7 × 10(-7) (perinatal, i.e., pregnant women and their fetuses or newborns) and 1.4 × 10(-6) (elderly) for milk purchased from bulk tanks, 1.5 × 10(-5 ) (perinatal) and 7.8 × 10(-5) (elderly) for milk from farm stores, and 2.1 × 10(-5) (perinatal) and 1.0 × 10(-4) (elderly) for milk from retail. For raw milk consumed on farms, the median number of listeriosis cases was 1.4 × 10(-7) cases per year. A greater risk of listeriosis was associated with consumption of raw milk obtained from retail and farm stores as compared with milk obtained from bulk tanks. This was likely due to additional time-temperature combination steps in the retail and farm store models, which increased the chances for growth of L. monocytogenes in raw milk. A close relationship between prevalence of L. monocytogenes in raw milk and the values of disease incidence was observed. Hence, a reduction in the number of cases per year in all populations was observed when a raw milk-testing program was in place, especially when routine testing and recalling of milk was conducted.     

Quantitative risk assessment of human campylobacteriosis associated with thermophilic Campylobacter species in chickens

A quantitative risk assessment comprising the elements hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment, and risk characterization has been prepared to assess the effect of different mitigation strategies on the number of human cases in Denmark associated with thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in chickens. To estimate the human exposure to Campylobacter from a chicken meal and the number of human cases associated with this exposure, a mathematical risk model was developed. The model details the spread and transfer of Campylobacter in chickens from slaughter to consumption and the relationship between ingested dose and the probability of developing campylobacteriosis. Human exposure was estimated in two successive mathematical modules. Module 1 addresses changes in prevalence and numbers of Campylobacter on chicken carcasses throughout the processing steps of a slaughterhouse. Module 2 covers the transfer of Campylobacter during food handling in private kitchens. The age and sex of consumers were included in this module to introduce variable hygiene levels during food preparation and variable sizes and compositions of meals. Finally, the outcome of the exposure assessment modules was integrated with a Beta-Poisson dose-response model to provide a risk estimate. Simulations designed to predict the effect of different mitigation strategies showed that the incidence of campylobacteriosis associated with consumption of chicken meals could be reduced 30 times by introducing a 2 log reduction of the number of Campylobacter on the chicken carcasses. To obtain a similar reduction of the incidence, the flock prevalence should be reduced approximately 30 times or the kitchen hygiene improved approximately 30 times. Cross-contamination from positive to negative flocks during slaughter had almost no effect on the human Campylobacter incidence, which indicates that implementation of logistic slaughter will only have a minor influence on the risk. Finally, the simulations showed that people in the age of 18-29 years had the highest risk of developing campylobacteriosis.     

Listeria monocytogenes and listeriosis: a review of hazard characterisation for use in microbiological risk assessment of foods

Considerable effort has been put into the application of quantitative microbiological risk assessment for Listeria monocytogenes, and data are available for England and Wales (probably more so than most other countries) on the adverse health effects, together with incidence data on different age and risk groups for human L. monocytogenes infections. This paper reviews aspects of Listeria and human listeriosis, especially from a public health perspective and provide hazard characterisation data, i.e. the qualitative and/or quantitative evaluation of the adverse health effect associated with the hazard, which is the relationship between exposure levels (dose) and frequency of illness. The majority of cases of human listeriosis are food-borne; however, the disease process is complex with multiple routes of infection. The dose-response relationship is poorly understood, and data from human volunteer studies are not available and would be unethical to produce. Data are available from a range of different animal and in vitro models, although these poorly mimic the natural disease process in route of infection, end point, host and history of prior exposure to the bacterium. Epidemiological data provide some information on infective doses and dose responses, but because of the characteristics of the disease (the hugely variable and potentially very long incubation periods, the low attack rates and the rarity of identification of specific food vehicles), this also provides limited data for calculation of dose responses. There is some, albeit limited, evidence for strain variation, but this is an area of considerable uncertainty despite great advances in the genetic basis of the virulence of this bacterium, and almost all strains seem capable of causing serious disease. A variety of mathematical approaches have been used to model dose responses. The review is written to provide a clinical and epidemiological background to the mathematically oriented, as well as to outline the mathematical approaches to those interested in food-borne infection.     

Quantitative microbiological profiles of brown rice and germinated brown rice

Among health conscious people, brown rice (BR) and germinated brown rice (GBR) are increasingly more popular for consumption in Korea because their nutritional values are greater than those of ordinary white rice (WR). The overall microbial counts for BR were higher than those for WR and those of GBR were higher than those of BR. Interestingly, the lactic acid bacteria (LAB) counts in GBR increased markedly and their selected representatives were Weissella confusa, Pediococcus pentosaceus, and Lactobacillus fermentum. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to enumerate and compare LAB loads on WR, BR, and GBR.     

Quantitative microbial risk assessment of pathogenic Escherichia coli in commercial kimchi in South Korea

Food Science and Biotechnology - Owing to convenience, ease of preparation, and price, the consumption of commercial kimchi is gradually rising in South Korea. Here, we estimated the risk level...     

Quantitative modeling for risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in bloody clams in southern Thailand

A risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in bloody clams (Anadara granosa) consumed in southern Thailand was conducted. This study estimated the prevalence and concentration of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus in bloody clams at harvest and retail stages; and during this process, methods to detect the total and pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus were investigated. Consumption of bloody clams and cooking efficiency were studied using interviews and onsite observation of consumers. A beta-Poisson dose–response model was used to estimate probability of illness applying estimation methods for the most likely parameter values presented by USFDA. Microbial and behavioral data were analyzed by developing a stochastic model and the simulation gave a mean number of times a person would get ill with V. parahaemolyticus by consuming bloody clams at 5.6 × 10^− 4/person/year. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the fraction of people who did not boil the clams properly was the primary factor in increasing risk. This study serves as an example of how a microbiological risk assessment with limited data collection and international cooperation leads to valuable local insight.     

Quantitative risk assessment of noroviruses in drinking water based on qualitative data in Japan

Noroviruses are one of the major causes of viral gastroenteritis in Japan. A quantitative risk assessment was conducted to evaluate the health risk caused by this virus in drinking water. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to calculate both the probability of infection and the disease burden using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The concentration of noroviruses in tap water was estimated based on qualitative data and a most probable number (MPN) method with an assumed Poisson lognormal distribution. This numerical method was evaluated using two sets of available count data of Cryptosporidium: that collected from a river and that found in tap water in Japan. The dose-response relationships for noroviruses were estimated using assumed ID50 (10 or 100). The annual risk was higher than the US-EPA acceptable level (10(-4) [infection/ person-year]) but around the WHO level (10(-6) [DALYs/ person-year]). As suggested by others, since microbial concentrations are generally lognormally distributed, the arithmetic mean was directly related to the annual risk, suggesting that the arithmetic mean is more useful in representing the degree of microbial contamination than the geometric mean.     

Quantitative health risk assessment of Cryptosporidium in rivers of southern China based on continuous monitoring

The concentrations of Cryptosporidium in the source water of several cities of Zhejiang Province, China were determined to be in the range of 0-17 oocysts/10 L in the rainy season in 2008, with a mean value of 7 oocysts/10 L. Based on the investigation data, comprehensive risk assessment of Cryptosporidium infection was performed by considering different water intake routes as well as water consumption. Intakes of unboiled tapwater (including drinking and tooth-brushing and food and dish washing) and source water (through swimming in rivers) were estimated to be 2.59-25.9 and 0.32-0.74 L/year-person, respectively. The mortality due to Cryptosporidium infection for people in this region, excluding HIV-infected patients, was calculated as 0-0.0146 per 10(5) persons using a conditional probability formula. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were used to quantify the risk of Cryptosporidium infection, for which uncertainty was analyzed. For people who consumed conventionally treated water, the DALYs due to Cryptosporidium infection were 6.51 per 10(5) (95% CI: 2.16 × 10(-5)-22.35 × 10(-5)) persons, which were higher than a risk judged acceptable by some (1.97 × 10(-5) DALYs per year), and the risk for those consuming ozone-treated water became 0.0689 × 10(-5) DALYs per year. The major risk of infection resulted from swimming in the river. This study provides a method to establish the risk of Cryptosporidium infection and optimize the scheme for reducing the risk effectively, which is useful for the modification of water quality standards based on cost utility analysis given use of DALYs.     

A new microbiological approach to the assessment of underarm deodorants

A general survey of odour generation in the axillae is given, with particular reference to the role of topically applied antimicrobial agents in odour suppression.
A new apparatus is described which will allow a rapid and reliable quantification of in vivo antimicrobial action and which may be usefully employed in optimization of individual systems to achieve effective deodorancy.
Findings are presented on the antimicrobial efficacy of deodorant compositions and correlated with practical olfactory studies.
Nouvelle approche microbiologique dans l'évaluation des déodorants axillaires     

Quantitative risk assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in smoked or gravad salmon and rainbow trout in Sweden

The objective of the present work was to develop a quantitative risk assessment model in which the exposure and risk of acquiring listeriosis from consumption of packaged smoked or gravad salmon and rainbow trout were estimated. An Excel spreadsheet model was constructed in which variables were represented by distributions based on surveys of L. monocytogenes in these food products, and on demographic and consumption data. Growth or inactivation was not included in the model. The model was run through Monte Carlo simulations using the @Risk software (Palisade Corporation). The probability of illness per serving was calculated using two dose-response models from the literature. The first was an exponential model in which the species specific constant R, that helps define the dose-response curve, previously has been estimated to be 1.18 x 10(-10) based on German data (GR). In this study, R was estimated to 5.6 x 10(-10) based on Swedish data. The second model was a flexible Weibull-Gamma model (WG), with different coefficients for high- and low-risk groups. The exponential model (GR), although conservative and generally overestimating the risk, still predicted a lower probability of illness than the WG-model. The estimated mean risk per serving was 2.8 x 10(-5) (GR, high-risk group), 2.0 x 10(-3) (WG, low-risk group) and 0.016 (WG, high-risk group), respectively. The average number of reported listeriosis cases in Sweden is 37 per year. In comparison, the mean number of annual cases predicted by the risk assessment model was 168 (range 47 to 2800, GR, high-risk group), and 95 000 (range 34 000 to 1.6 x 10(6), WG high-risk group), respectively. If 1 to 10% (uniform distribution) of strains, instead of all, were considered virulent, the mean number of predicted cases would decrease to nine (GR) and 5200 (WG), respectively. The mean annual cumulative individual risk in the high-risk group based on a monthly exposure was estimated to be 4.0 x 10(-4) (range 8.0 x 10(-8) to 5.4 x 10(-3), GR). This risk increased to 1.5 x 10(-3) (range 1.7 x 10(-5) to 9.2 x 10(-3), GR) based on a weekly exposure. The risk assessment model was most sensitive to the input distribution describing the level of contamination and to a lesser degree on the prevalence of L. monocytogenes, the proportion of virulent strains, and serving sizes. A lack of data on the prevalence and concentration of L. monocytogenes in these products, dose-response data and quantitative information on the proportion of virulent strains were identified.     

Quantitative assessment of the microbial risk of leafy greens from farm to consumption: preliminary framework, data, and risk estimates

This project was undertaken to relate what is known about the behavior of Escherichia coli O157:H7 under laboratory conditions and integrate this information to what is known regarding the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 spinach outbreak in the context of a quantitative microbial risk assessment. The risk model explicitly assumes that all contamination arises from exposure in the field. Extracted data, models, and user inputs were entered into an Excel spreadsheet, and the modeling software @RISK was used to perform Monte Carlo simulations. The model predicts that cut leafy greens that are temperature abused will support the growth of E. coli O157:H7, and populations of the organism may increase by as much a 1 log CFU/day under optimal temperature conditions. When the risk model used a starting level of -1 log CFU/g, with 0.1% of incoming servings contaminated, the predicted numbers of cells per serving were within the range of best available estimates of pathogen levels during the outbreak. The model predicts that levels in the field of -1 log CFU/g and 0.1% prevalence could have resulted in an outbreak approximately the size of the 2006 E. coli O157:H7 outbreak. This quantitative microbial risk assessment model represents a preliminary framework that identifies available data and provides initial risk estimates for pathogenic E. coli in leafy greens. Data gaps include retail storage times, correlations between storage time and temperature, determining the importance of E. coli O157:H7 in leafy greens lag time models, and validation of the importance of cross-contamination during the washing process.     

Quantitative risk assessment of human salmonellosis from the consumption of a turkey product in collective catering establishments

The quantitative risk assessment (QRA) approach recommended by the Codex Alimentarius Commission was used to assess the risk of human salmonellosis from the consumption of 'cordon bleu', a specific turkey product, in collective catering establishments (CCEs) of a French department. The complete process was modeled and simulated, from the initial storage in the CCE freezer to the consumption, using a Monte Carlo simulation software. Data concerning the prevalence of contaminated 'cordon bleu', the level of contamination of Salmonella, the cooking and storage process were collected from 21 CCEs and 8 retailers of 'cordon bleu' in the selected department. Thermal inactivation kinetics for Salmonella were established to estimate the effect of heat treatment on the concentration in the product and to calculate the dose that could be ingested by the consumer. The Beta-Poisson dose-response model of Rose and Gerba [Water Science and Technology 24 (1991) 29] with the specific parameters for Salmonella was used to estimate the probability of infection related to the ingestion of a particular dose and a factor was applied to estimate the probability of illness from ingestion. The individual risk of salmonellosis, the risk of outbreak and the number of cases were calculated using Monte Carlo simulation method. The risk of salmonellosis was close to zero when the 'cordons bleus' were cooked in the oven. Therefore, the risk was calculated for the fryer cooking since the insufficient cooking time observed was, sometimes, at the origin of low temperatures (37-89 degrees C). The influence of both the initial concentration of Salmonella in the product and the heat storage before consumption on the final risk was studied. For a high initial concentration of Salmonella in the product, when the 'cordons bleus' are fryer cooked, the average risk of salmonellosis was equal to 3.95 x 10(-3) without storage before consumption and 2.8 x 10(-4) if the product is consumed after storage. This paper presents the results of the QRA and discusses risk management options to minimize the risk of salmonellosis.